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The SARS-CoV-2 variant XBB.1.5 is of concern as it has high transmissibility. XBB.1.5 currently accounts for upwards of 30% of new infections in the United States. One year after our group published the predicted structure of the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant's receptor binding domain (RBD) and antibody binding affinity, we return to investigate the new mutations seen in XBB.1.5 which is a descendant of Omicron. Using in silico modeling approaches against newer neutralizing antibodies that are shown effective against B.1.1.529, we predict the immune consequences of XBB.1.5's mutations and show that there is no statistically significant difference in overall antibody evasion when comparing to the B.1.1.529 and other related variants (e.g., BJ.1 andBM.1.1.1). However, noticeable changes in antibody binding affinity were seen due to specific amino acid changes of interest in the newer variants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Socioeconomic and landscape factors influence mosquito abundance especially in urban areas. Few studies addressed how socioeconomic and landscape factors, especially at micro-scale for mosquito life history, determine mosquito abundance. Objectives: We aim to predict mosquito abundance based on socioeconomic and/or landscape factors using machine learning framework. Additionally, we determine these factors' response to mosquito abundance. Methods: We identified 3985 adult mosquitoes (majority of which were Aedes mosquitoes) in 90 sampling sites from Charlotte, NC, USA in 2017. Seven socioeconomic and seven landscape factors were used to predict mosquito abundance. Three supervised learning models, k-nearest neighbor (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) were constructed, tuned, and evaluated using both continuous input factors and binary inputs. Random forest (RF) was used to assess individual input's relative importance and response to mosquito abundance. Results: We showed that landscape factors alone yielded equal or better predictability than socioeconomic factors. The inclusion of both types of factors further improved model accuracy using binary inputs. kNN also had robust performance regardless of inputs (accuracy > 95% for binary and > 99% for continuous input data). Landscape factors group had higher importance than socioeconomic group (54.4% vs. 45.6%). Landscape heterogeneity (measured by Shannon index) was the single most important input factor for mosquito abundance. Conclusions: Landscape factors were the key for mosquito abundance. Machine learning models were powerful tools to handle complex datasets with multiple socioeconomic and landscape factors to accurately predict mosquito abundance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Using a novel combination of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) analysis and geographic metadata, we traced the origins of Salmonella Bareilly isolates collected in 2012 during a widespread food-borne outbreak in the United States associated with scraped tuna imported from India.Methods: Using next-generation sequencing, we sequenced the complete genome of 100 Salmonella Bareilly isolates obtained from patients who consumed contaminated product, from natural sources, and from unrelated historically and geographically disparate foods. Pathogen genomes were linked to geography by projecting the phylogeny on a virtual globe and produced a transmission network.Results: Phylogenetic analysis of WGS data revealed a common origin for outbreak strains, indicating that patients in Maryland and New York were infected from sources originating at a facility in India.Conclusions: These data represent the first report fully integrating WGS analysis with geographic mapping and a novel use of transmission networks. Results showed that WGS vastly improves our ability to delimit the scope and source of bacterial food-borne contamination events. Furthermore, these findings reinforce the extraordinary utility that WGS brings to global outbreak investigation as a greatly enhanced approach to protecting the human food supply chain as well as public health in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval)., Methods and Findings: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths., Conclusions: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year., Competing Interests: JE is president of General Biodefense LLC, a private consulting group for public health informatics, and has interest in READE.ai, a medical artificial intelligence solutions company. MR reports stock ownership in Becton Dickinson & Co., which manufactures medical equipment used in COVID-19 testing, vaccination, and treatment. JL has served as an expert witness on cases where the likely length of the pandemic was of issue. The remaining authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright: © 2024 Jung et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model., Competing Interests: ST, CS, MQ, LM, RB, KS, EH, LC, JL, JK, HH, MK, KT, SW, LS, KR, JL, JD, JK, EL, JP, AH, DK, MC, JD, KM, XX, AP, AV, AS, PP, SV, AA, BL, BK, JO, MO, GH, BH, JC, AV, MM, SH, PB, DM, SC, RP, DJ, JT, MG, TY, SP, JH, RS, MB, MJ, CV No competing interests declared, JL has served as an expert witness on cases where the likely length of the pandemic was of issue, JS and Columbia University disclose partial ownership of SK Analytics. Discloses consulting for BNI, MR reports stock ownership in Becton Dickinson & Co, which manufactures medical equipment used in COVID testing, vaccination, and treatment