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Structural properties of the currency market were examined with the use of topological networks. Relationships between currencies were analyzed by constructing minimal spanning trees (MSTs). The dissimilarities between time series of currency returns were measured in various ways: by applying Euclidean distance, Pearson's linear correlation coefficient, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Kendall's coefficient, partial correlation, dynamic time warping measure, and Kullback–Leibler relative entropy. For the constructed MSTs, their topological characteristics were analyzed and conclusions were drawn regarding the influence of the dissimilarity measure used. It turned out that the strength of most types of correlations was highly dependent on the choice of the numeraire currency, while partial correlations were invariant in this respect. It can be stated that a network built on the basis of partial correlations provides a more adequate illustration of pairwise relationships in the foreign exchange market. The data for quotations of 37 of the most important world currencies and four precious metals in the period from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2022 were used. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered changes in the topology of the currency network. As a result of these crises, the average distances between tree nodes decreased and the centralization of graphs increased. Our results confirm that currencies are often pegged to other currencies due to countries' geographic locations and economic ties. The detected structures can be useful in descriptions of the currency market, can help in constructing a stable portfolio of the foreign exchange rates, and can be a valuable tool in searching for economic factors influencing specific groups of countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of developing countries mainly in East Asia and Latin America and Russia suffered exchange rate crises in the 1990s. We examine the run up to the crisis in terms of a few macro indicators suggested by various crisis models. We then examine the aftermath of the crisis, in contrast to most empirical work that concentrates on determining the causes of crises. We seek to explain the pre-crisis as well as the post-crisis situation in the light of various crisis models. We find that the first-generation crisis model despite anomalies seems to fit the crises in Latin American countries whereas it does not fit the crisis in the Asian countries. The Russian case is different from any of the crisis models. The crisis eliminated the Dutch disease aspects leading to a large increase in exports and an improvement in the current account balance. This resulted in a higher growth rate of GDP. We also find that the exchange market pressure index is not successful in predicting the crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overdependence on oil export has made the Russian economy more vulnerable to fluctuations of oil price in the world market. Moreover, existing empirical evidence on the relationship between real exchange rate and real oil price in the country has yet to account for any possible asymmetric adjustment of the real exchange rate that result from changes in the real oil price. In view of this, the current study examines the relationship between the real exchange rate and the real oil price using monthly dataset from Russia for the period of January 1995 to April 2013 and symmetric cointegration tests proposed by Engle and Granger and Johansen. In addition, the study used Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) and Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) estimation techniques to test for asymmetric cointegration. The study further conducted an asymmetric error correction modelling using the threshold value from MTAR-consistent to estimate the dynamics of the real exchange rate caused by changes in real oil price. Overall, the results of the study reveal the presence of a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and the real oil price using all the estimation techniques. Specifically, the result of MTAR-Consistent produces evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rate and the real oil price with asymmetric adjustment of the former to the long-run equilibrium values. The speed of adjustment of the real exchange rate is more rapid when the deviation from the equilibrium values is negative than when the deviation is positive. According to the estimations, 22 percent of the negative departures from the equilibrium values are corrected during the subsequent month. But only 4.8 percent of the positive deviations from the equilibrium values are corrected in the following month. From the policy viewpoint, the results suggest that real exchange rate depreciations brought about by falling oil price are defended and rapidly reversed by the Russian monetary authorities than real exchange rate appreciation caused by rising oil price. In other words, Russia intervened more during oil price slumps to defend her currency from depreciations, but intervened less during oil price booms to revert or postpone any appreciation of her currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russia is currently implementing a policy of import substitution. Although some positive results have been achieved (e.g., in the agricultural industry and the pharmaceutical industry), there are still significant problems with the current approach. The present article considers the successes and challenges of Russia's current import substitution policy and offers several solutions that should facilitate significant economic growth. In particular, we argue that a systematic approach to import substitution should focus on stimulating the industrial base through government regulation and support, which is better than the present policy of maintaining a relatively unregulated domestic free market and relying on the import of foreign technology. This article reviews several arguments in favor and against this approach and concludes that under current economic conditions, the best way forward for the Russian economy involves the transition to a system-strategic approach to import substitution, which requires a reevaluation of macroeconomic policy and the rejection of certain liberal principles (e.g., rigid monetary policy, floating exchange rates, and abstaining from currency restrictions). In light of foreign experience, we argue that this model has been successfully implemented in countries that are currently technological leaders in global value chains and that this model can likewise help Russia develop its industrial base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the systematic analysis of the development of Russian foreign trade and the characteristics of the regional distribution structure of trade, this work further studies the influencing factors of Russia's foreign trade by using the R language regression analysis method and constructs three econometric models from import, export, and total import and export. The real effective exchange rate and various instruments and equipment and accessories are the main factors affecting Russia's import trade, energy, minerals, timber, and related products are the main factors affecting its export trade, and Russia's GDP and international oil prices are the major factors affecting the total import and export volume. A correct understanding of the factors affecting Russia's foreign trade will help to understand Russia's economic and trade development and its changing trend and provide a reliable reference value for the further expansion and optimization of economic and trade cooperation between other economies and Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Competitiveness on a small and large scale is necessary for growth. A definitive link between the level of competitiveness and growth has been difficult to prove. One of the primary objectives of economic planning is to promote price and exchange rate stability. Entrepreneurialism and productivity also increase the country's export competitiveness. The aim of this study is to test for the convergence in competitiveness and convergence club existence in selected economies. No previous research had tested for convergence in competitiveness using a nonlinear timevarying factor model. This paper provides an overview on convergence in competitiveness and convergence clubs' existence for 42 countries using quarterly data from 1994q1 to 2020q4 testing on competitiveness. Convergence log (t) test results show differences in competitiveness between classified convergence clubs. Russia, Brazil, and Turkey are the clubs (groups of countries) that show a transitional path (convergence in competitiveness) that differs entirely from the rest of the sample. Countries with more natural resources and exogenous monetary policies follow a unique development path to competitiveness. We find no evidence of divergence in countries within the clubs. However, we find a club (group of countries) following a clear divergence path from the other countries (Russia, Brazil, and Turkey). Our findings could potentially explain the increase in divergence in competitiveness across countries after the financial crisis of 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the effect of the value of the currency on international inbound tourist numbers to Turkey from Germany and Russia, which are the top two tourist generating countries for Turkey. Two different Turkish Lira regimes are investigated with Threshold Vector Autoregressive (Threshold-VAR) models, using the real broad effective exchange rate for Turkey as a threshold variable. The endogenous variables vectors are the macroeconomic variables of the tourist origin countries: the real broad effective exchange rate, consumer price index ratio (proxying for the price level), and total industry production (proxying for income level) for Germany and Russia. Because of data constraints, the estimated Threshold-VAR models for Germany and Russia covered different periods in 1997:01-2020:05 and 2000:01-2020:05, respectively. The key finding for both policymakers and tourism researchers is that when travels become cheaper in the Turkish Lira, this does not always attract more foreign tourists to Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We empirically test if the US President Donald Trump's rhetoric towards Russia (represented by his Russia-related tweets) affects ruble's exchange rate. Using three-stepped empirical framework, we find that escalation of negative sentiment of Trump's Russia-related tweets leads to ruble's depreciation (4–10%) in short-term periods (around 3 days). Though these episodes tend to coincide with imposition or announcement of US sanctions, we demonstrate that US sanctions that were not accompanied by negative tweets of Donald Trump, have not caused ruble's depreciation. This highlights the role of emotional factors in economic decision-making behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fluctuations of exchange rates has increased in recent years with the global financial and economic crisis. In fact, we're talking about unprecedented currency volatility. The current period of exchange rate fluctuations determines the relevance and importance of the matter presented. Relations between Bulgarian travel companies and foreign partners are closely linked to fluctuations in the exchange rates of national currencies. And while the Bulgarian lev is pegged to the euro, many of the countries with which we are in business are experiencing turmoil related to the depreciation of their national currency against the euro. The problems in tourism related to the wave of bankruptcies of Russian tour operators in 2014 are exacerbated. And although in recent years the statistics speak about the growth of foreign tourists, it is a fact that in the last season - 2019, tourists from Russia and the former Russian republics make up a very small part of them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, causal relation among exchange rate, inflation and stock market have been investigated for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) taking into consideration the time period between January 2001 and July 2017. In the study, Panel Bootstrap Causality test has been used in order to determine the causality relation of the countries, and then the asymmetric causality test has been performed by dividing the data into the positive and negative components. According to the results of symmetric causality test, there is a bidirectional causality between exchange rate and inflation for Russia and South Africa. In addition, for other countries, unidirectional causality findings have been obtained for some variables. According to the results of the asymmetric causality test, hidden relationships detected between positive and negative components at different levels of significance indicate the presence of asymmetric findings for BRICS countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a complete manually collected set of 3435 Russian firms with German capital in 2003–2020, we examine the effect of currency risk on the dynamics of German investors' entry and exit into the Russian market via foreign direct investment. We document that German investors were relatively tolerant towards currency risk before 2014, and became highly sensitive post 2014. We conclude that, along with geopolitical factors, the free floating exchange rate regime adopted by the Central Bank of Russia in 2014 affected the incentives of German investors. We discuss various mechanisms to explain these findings. • Central Bank of Russia adopted free floating exchange rate regime in 2014 • We collect manually data on 3435 Russian firms with German FDI • We examine the effect of currency risk on the dynamics of investors' entry and exit • Before 2014 the FDI entry rate is higher, and after 2014 the exit rate is higher • We conjecture that investors changed their attitude towards currency risk post 2014 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dramatic oil price movements could spill over to the stock market, which may be weakened or reinforced by the exchange rate, particularly for net oil importing and exporting countries. Unlike previous studies considering the relationship between the stock market and the oil price quoted in USD, we explore the impact of real oil price quoted in corresponding currency on the stock markets of China and Russia by involving the nominal exchange rates through various time horizons during the sample period from January 2000 to October 2015. Furthermore, the relationship between the effective exchange rate and the oil-stock nexus is examined in a dynamic manner. The main results are as follows: first, Russian stock market responds greater to the combined influence of the oil price and exchange rate than Chinese stock market. Specifically, the bidirectional Granger causality relations running between the real oil price and stock markets are in scale 1 and 6 for China, but exist in scales 1–6 for Russia. Compared with previous studies, we infer that the exchange rate weakens the response of Chinese stock market to the oil price but close Russian oil-stock nexus. Moreover, the oil price increase could depress Chinese stock market in scale 6, while such increase has positive effect on Russian stock market in scales 2–6. Further dynamic analysis demonstrates that the correlations between the effective exchange rates and the oil-stock nexuses for both China and Russia are high and fluctuated in scales 1–4, but decrease after 2014 when the effective exchange rates of China and Russia move in the opposite direction in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate long and short-term impact of changes in oil prices and the exchange rate on prices of seven groups of agricultural products in Russia (buckwheat, grain crops, potatoes, oat, wheat, rye, barley). In this paper, Granger causality approach is applied to test long-run interlinkages with monthly data from January 1999 to October 2015. For testing the response of agricultural prices to sudden shocks in oil prices and exchange rate in the short run, we use impulse-response techniques. The results of impulse response analysis show that agricultural prices are not particularly sensitive to changes in oil prices and the exchange rate of Russian ruble in the short term, except for imported commodities. In the long run, Granger causal relationship between agricultural prices and oil prices is missing, and with exchange rate is observed only in case of imported agricultural goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Russian agricultural foreign trade is changing. Its value, volume and especially commodity and territorial structures are under the permanent development. The period of transformation together with several crises completely changed the character of Russian agricultural sector and foodstuff industry. To be able to develop the country's strategy for the upcoming decades it is necessary to identify the key trends and drivers affecting the Russian agricultural trade performance and development. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of selected key variables (agricultural production, exchange rate, and world food price and government subsidies) on Russian agricultural trade and to identify if there is existing the significant relationship or not. The secondary objective of the paper is the analysis of relationship existence between Russian food price development and World food price development. On the basis of the results coming from the analyses the following can be highlighted. The value of imports was growing much faster comparing to value of exports. The result is constantly increasing negative trade balance. Russian agrarian export commodity structure became more concentrated, on the other hand the commodity structure of agrarian imports became more heterogeneous. Talking about individual hypotheses analyzing the relations between individual variables the following can summarized. There do exist the relationships between Russian foreign trade and agricultural production development, government subsidies development and world food price development. On the other hand the existence of relationship between exchange rate and Russian agrarian export and import performance was not proved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers new evidence on the exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries through the analysis of the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index and rolling-windows. Using the monthly frequency data from 1999:M01-2019:M11, our study provides the following findings: (i) there is strong evidence of directional spillovers across the countries; (ii) the total spillovers are low, with Russia (China) having the highest (lowest). This suggests a low pass-through across the countries; (iii) the net spillovers of oil price and exchange rate are positive in Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, while in India, they are both negative. Our results further suggest that the net spillovers of inflation and output growth are positive in India, while in China, the net spillover of inflation is negative with oil price and output growth having positive net spillovers. The positive (negative) net spillover indicates that a variable contributes to the forecast error variance decomposition of other variables more(less) than what it receives from other variables; (iv) the historical events and crises interrupt the extent of spillovers across the countries, and; (v) the spillovers exhibit significant bursts with no clear-cut evidence of trends across these countries. These findings are useful in formulating an optimal monetary policy. • Test for exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries. • Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index and rolling-window analysis are explored. • Evidence of low spillovers is found across the countries. • Historical events and crises interrupt the extent of spillovers across the countries. • Findings are useful for the formulation of an optimal monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, the impact of oil price shocks on the stock exchanges of three countries in the Caspian Basin − Iran, Kazakhstan and Russia − was examined through a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. For the research, monthly data from the stock exchanges, the oil price, inflation, industrial production and exchange rates were collected between March 2005 and June 2018. According to the results of variance decomposition, in these three countries, the impact of negative oil price shocks on the stock exchanges was stronger than that of positive shocks, and constituted the largest source of changes in the three stock exchanges. In addition, according to the results of impulse response functions, the response of the stock exchanges in the three countries to negative oil shocks was highly significant. Consequently, these countries should avoid macroeconomic imbalances and falls in their stock exchanges due to the negative impact of the oil price, and should instead focus on industrial production that will contribute to exports. In this way, they can avoid the negative impact of oil price shocks on their stock exchanges. • The stock exchange is influenced by oil price shocks in the Caspian Basin countries. • Stock exchanges are much more impacted by negative oil shocks than positive ones. • The oil price creates asymmetric effects on stock exchanges. • Caspian Basin countries should focus on industrial production contributes to export. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]