1. The Relationship Between External Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Fragile Five Countries.
- Author
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Akduğan, Umut and Yıldız, Nural
- Subjects
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EXTERNAL debts , *ECONOMIC expansion , *VECTOR autoregression model , *GRANGER causality test , *SAVINGS - Abstract
The inadequacy of the internal savings required for investments in developing countries pushes them to seek outsourcing and external borrowing. In this study, the relationship between external borrowing and economic growth has been examined by the VAR model for 1970-2018 period in Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Turkey, which also called as "Fragile Five". The direction of the relationship between the variables has been examined with the Granger causality test by using the generated VAR models. In order to support the causality test results, the dynamic relationships between variables has been analyzed with impulse-response functions and variance decomposition analysis. The findings obtained from the analysis are as follows: i) In Brazil, a unidirectional causality relationship from the GDP to the external debt stock has been found. Also, economic growth has a significant positive impact on external borrowing. ii) There is no statistically significant relationship between external debt stock and GDP in Indonesia and India. iii) In Turkey and South Africa, a unidirectional relationship from external debt stock to GDP has been found and it has been seen that external borrowing has a positive effect on growth in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020