Search

Several northern European countries have announced ambitious plans to become carbon neutral already before the year 2050. Recent research has, however, highlighted how potential bottlenecks in raw material and resource availability could significantly delay or hinder wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) expansion and continued biomass usage in parts of Europe. To address this issue, this paper assesses how exposed the national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of Finland, Estonia, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark are to resource limitations and techno-economic risks by reviewing and analysing 2030 NECP targets compared to statistical energy use data in these countries. The results indicate that the NECPs of Denmark and Germany are particularly exposed to risks related to global raw material availability, as Denmark plans to rapidly grow the share of wind and solar PV in electricity generation to 81% and 13% by 2030, respectively, followed by Germany, which outlines a 39% and 16% share of wind and solar PV in its national climate strategy. The NECPs of Finland and Germany are also shown to be vulnerable to limitations in biomass availability, as there is a significant disparity between the projected biomass usage and legally binding European Union (EU) targets for land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector emissions in 2030 in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Imported green e-H 2 is more expensive than e-H 2 produced in Germany and Finland. • Local supply of e-H 2 found to be more economical across all scenarios and years. • Transportation costs constitute 29–63% of the total imported e-H 2 cost. • Pipeline transmission may be cheaper than shipping for distances of 2000–2500 km. Widely available and low-cost solar photovoltaics and wind power can enable production of renewable electricity-based hydrogen at many locations throughout the world. Hydrogen is expected to emerge as an important energy carrier constituting some of the final energy demand; however, its most important role will be as feedstock for further processing to e-fuels, e-chemicals, and e-steel. Apart from meeting their own hydrogen demand, countries may have opportunities to export hydrogen to countries with area limitations or higher production costs. This paper assesses the feasibility of e-hydrogen imports to Germany and Finland from two case regions with a high availability of low-cost renewable electricity, Chile and Morocco, in comparison to domestic supply. Special attention is paid to the transport infrastructure, which has a crucial impact on the economic viability of imports via two routes, shipping and pipelines. This study has found that despite lower e-hydrogen production costs in Morocco and Chile compared to Germany and Finland, additional transportation costs make imports of e-hydrogen economically unattractive. In early 2020s, imported fuel costs are 39–79% and 34–100% higher than e-hydrogen produced in Germany and Finland, respectively. In 2050, imported e-hydrogen is projected to be 39–70% more expensive than locally produced e-hydrogen in Germany and 43–54% in the case of Finland. e-Hydrogen may become a fuel that is mostly produced domestically and may be feasible for imports only in specific locations. Local e-hydrogen production may also lower dependence on imports, enhance energy security, and add jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many developed countries lone parent families face high rates of child poverty. Among those lone parents who do get child maintenance there is a hidden problem. States may retain all, or a proportion, of the maintenance that is paid in order to offset other fiscal costs. Thus, the potential of child maintenance to alleviate poverty among lone parent families may not be fully realized, especially if the families are also in receipt of social assistance benefits. This paper provides an original comparative analysis exploring the effectiveness of child maintenance to reduce child poverty among lone parent families in receipt of social assistance. It addresses the question of whether effectiveness is compromised once interaction effects (such as the operation of a child maintenance disregard) are taken into account in four countries Australia, Finland, Germany and the UK using the LIS dataset (2013). It raises important policy considerations and provides evidence to show that if policy makers are serious about reducing child poverty, they must understand how hidden mechanisms within interactions between child maintenance and social security systems can work as effective cost recovery tools for the state, but have no poverty reduction impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the longer term outcomes of young people who experienced out of home care (OHC) as children, in Britain, Germany and Finland, countries characterised by different welfare regimes. While there is some evidence on immediate transitions after leaving care (up to age 21), there is less evidence on experiences around age 30, a phase of early adulthood. Drawing on existing longitudinal data for general population samples we focus on outcomes related to education, employment, family, health and receipt of welfare benefits for those who were ever in care and those who were not. We find evidence for continuing disadvantage regarding education and employment for those who were in care as children, but also indications of subjective wellbeing and commitment to family life – possibly a reflection of “normality” and efforts to “fit in” as parents. Surprisingly, despite variations in welfare system and differences in the scope and quality of available data, trends were similar in each of the countries, suggesting that none provide adequately for the needs of care experienced young adults. The findings point towards the need for a revised conceptualisation of the notion of “independence” which has to take into account the manifold and changing relationships between individuals and the state. Instead of a “cliff edge” approach there should be support for a more gradual shift from “dependence” to “independence” enabling those with care experience to develop their full potential. In interpreting the findings, limitations of the available data have to be acknowledged, pointing to the need for generating harmonised and longitudinal data on vulnerable subpopulations to enable effective monitoring of needs and provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling and forecasting international migration are significant research areas since migration forecasts are vital in decision making and policy design regarding economy, security, society, and resource allocation. The methods for modeling and forecasting migration rely on strict subjective or statistical assumptions which may not always be met. In addition, lack of a universally accepted definition of the term "migrant" and the ambiguities in data due to recording and collection systems result in inconsistencies and vagueness in migration modeling. Considering these, in this paper, a fuzzy bi-level age-specific migration modeling method is proposed. The bi-level structure embedded in the model makes use of the well-known Lee-Carter method as well as fuzzy regression, singular value decomposition technique, and hierarchical clustering to reflect the general characteristics of the country of concern together with the distinct emigration and immigration behaviors of the age groups. Bayesian time series models are fitted to the time-variant fuzzy parameters obtained through the proposed method to forecast future migration values. The proposed method is applied on female and male age-specific emigration and immigration counts of Finland for 1990–2010 period and Germany for 1995–2012 period, and the future values are forecasted for 2011–2025 and 2013–2025 respectively. The method is compared with an existing Bayesian approach and the numerical findings display that the proposed fuzzy method is superior to the existing one in modeling and forecasting age-specific migration values within significantly narrower prediction intervals. • A fuzzy migration modeling method is proposed to eliminate the restrictive assumptions of the existing methods • The bi-level structure of the model reflects general country characteristics and distinct age group behaviors. • The proposed method is applied on migration data of Finland and Germany; and compared with an existing Bayesian approach. • The proposed method is superior to the existing one in forecasting migration values within narrower prediction intervals. • This paper shows the applicability of fuzzy approach in modeling and forecasting the inherent uncertainty for migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meeting the energy goals of the European Union requires new ways of managing energy. Decentralized energy management, cross-commodity energy production and usage optimization are promising means. Future neighbourhoods will include multiple forms of energy such as electricity, heat, and cooling. According to our vision, the smart neighbourhoods, can optimize energy across different vectors by sharing resources in a controlled way. The first contribution of this paper is a comprehensive review on market, regulatory and technological status to support the transition towards distributed cross-commodity energy management with focus on Germany and Finland. Markets disruption could lead to more decentralized structures. Mechanisms therefore have been proposed, but mostly without sector integration. Clean Energy Package includes legislation that is supportive towards cross-commodity energy sharing solutions. Corresponding implementation in Germany and Finland may be successful in both countries even though it differs. Regarding technology, the article identifies required technical components (IoT, AI and blockchain) focusing on their support decentralized and cross-sector energy systems. Key components of IoT are wireless communication and interoperability middleware. AI provides key technologies for modelling and optimization of sector-integrated and distributed energy systems. Even if there has been lots of research, practical implementations are still lacking. Furthermore, many technical challenges still exist for blockchain based solutions in decentralized energy systems. Moreover, organizational, and legal responsibilities need to be clarified to support the adoption of blockchains in decentralized energy systems. Finally, the article gives recommendations regarding an increasing implementation of cross-commodity sharing and how it can contribute to the energy transition. • Giving an overview of cross-commodity energy sharing in Finland and Germany. • It is shown how recent energy market development support energy transition. • Comparing the regulatory framework for smart components in energy markets. • Combination of IoT, AI and Blockchain to enable decentralized energy markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]