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The number of public-private partnership (PPP) projects has gone up especially in developing countries. The risk assessment of PPP projects is essential in ensuring project success. The objective of this study is to develop an Analytic Network Process (ANP) based risk assessment model for hydropower investments, and a tool to facilitate quantification of risk ratings based on this model. The results show that the three most important risk factors that affect the overall risk rating of a PPP hydropower investment are legal risks, contractor/subcontractor risks, and operator risks. In addition, the three most important risk clusters were identified as stakeholders, government requirements, and resources, whereas market was the least important cluster. The tool that measures the risk rating of a PPP of hydropower project was tested on ten real cases, and satisfactory results were obtained in terms of its predictive capability. The contributions of this research include (1) identification of the risk factors and clusters of factors associated with PPP hydropower investments; (2) determination of the priority of each risk factor and cluster; (3) development a tool that guides the investors through the risk assessment of PPP hydropower investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the feasibility study of BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) hydropower investments, the selling price of energy is the most critical parameter that impacts the net present value (NPV) estimated by the investors. Investors usually consider the price of energy guaranteed by the government during their feasibility studies which is the worst case scenario. However, it is apparent that negotiations that take place between investor and broker determine the price of energy which is affected by various sources of uncertainty associated with the energy demand and country conditions. The objective of this study was to make a realistic estimate of the investor's selling price by modeling the negotiation process between investor and broker using a multi-agent system (MAS). Thus, the factors affecting the negotiation process were identified, a negotiation protocol between the parties was set up, negotiation scenarios were determined, and modelled by using a MAS. The model was tested on a hydropower investment in Turkey and generated more realistic results compared to the current practice. Investors and brokers may benefit from this study because it considers the potential changes in the market as well as the negotiating postures of parties under different scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy demand has been increasing, but traditional sources of energy are depletable. New investments are needed in renewable energy production. Hydroelectric power plants are often considered a feasible renewable source of energy and are often organized as a public private partnerships (PPP). However, risk factors stemming from the macro environment as well as project conditions should be considered in performing feasibility studies. The objective of this study was to develop a method that can be used to predict the profitability of hydropower investments considering the relevant risk factors. To that end, a cash flow that represents the construction and operation period is set up, the risk factors involved in such projects are identified, the impacts of these risk factors on the cash flow parameters are assessed, and Monte Carlo simulation is performed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of a hydropower investment. The proposed method was tested in a hydropower investment located in Turkey and generated credible results that could be of great benefit to potential investors operating in similar conditions. The primary contribution of this research is the creation of a method that allows investors to assess the profitability of a hydropower investment by using a stochastic approach. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]