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Simple Summary: Spring in Europe has been trending earlier for almost half a century. Long-distance migrant birds, such as the Willow Warbler and Pied Flycatcher, which breed in Europe, have arrived earlier too. It is broadly accepted that warming springs in temperate regions explain the earlier arrival of migrants. However, migration started weeks earlier and thousands of kilometres away. There must be additional cues elsewhere triggering migration. Meteorologists have developed measures of atmospheric circulation which are related to climate variability in wide regions. One of them is the Southern Oscillation Index, which reflects El Niño/La Niña that cause droughts and floods in the southern hemisphere. Other atmospheric circulation patterns, measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole, help predict total rainfall for a whole season in various parts of Africa and Europe. Good rains are associated with plant growth and with insect abundance. Insects provide food for most of these migrants. Therefore, this paper asks the question: "Is the timing of arrival of long-distance migrants in spring related to the climates they experience in the places where they are over the year prior to arrival in Europe?" This paper says the answer is "Yes". Earlier springs in temperate regions since the 1980s, attributed to climate change, are thought to influence the earlier arrival of long-distance migrant passerines. However, this migration was initiated weeks earlier in Africa, where the Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation drive climatic variability, and may additionally influence the migrants. Multiple regressions investigated whether 15 indices of climate in Africa and Europe explained the variability in timing of arrival for seven trans-Saharan migrants. Our response variable was Annual Anomaly (AA), derived from standardized mistnetting from 1982–2021 at Bukowo, Polish Baltic Sea. For each species, the best models explained a considerable part of the annual variation in the timing of spring's arrival by two to seven climate variables. For five species, the models included variables related to temperature or precipitation in the Sahel. Similarly, the models included variables related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (for four species), Indian Ocean Dipole (three), and Southern Oscillation (three). All included the Scandinavian Pattern in the previous summer. Our conclusion is that climate variables operating on long-distance migrants in the areas where they are present in the preceding year drive the phenological variation of spring migration. These results have implications for our understanding of carry-over effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As international relations actors in the post-Second World War world, international organisations have played a significant role in the standardisation of global policy concepts during the 20th century, and humanitarian assistance has been no exception. While the study of the role of international organisations in shaping a dominant model of humanitarian aid has recently gathered pace, few historians have focused on different, less successful models and interpretations developed by other international organisations. Recently declassified Commonwealth Secretariat records show that discussions within the Secretariat and among member states regarding the potential objectives and scope of Commonwealth humanitarian assistance programmes took place as early as the 1960s, and continued throughout the following decades. This article provides an overview of the origin and evolution of the Commonwealth’s approach to humanitarian assistance since the 1960s. Its objective is to document this hitherto little known aspect of Commonwealth assistance policies, and, based on an initial literature and archival survey, to contribute to the identification of further research questions and gaps in this aspect of Commonwealth history. Although they are very different in nature and scope, the Commonwealth and the European Union share at least one common feature in so far as humanitarian assistance is concerned, namely their difficulty in reaching a consensual definition of it. By exploring the links and discrepancies between, as well as within, each organisation’s approach to humanitarian assistance, and by examining the initiatives of some of their member states, this paper seeks to highlight the plasticity of the definition of humanitarian assistance. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]