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The share of wealth held by the top one percent of Americans has increased from about 24% in 1980 to 40% in 2010. This paper examines the potential role played by three factors in accounting for this increase - decline in the corporate tax rates, increase in the income risk, and the decline in the world interest rates. Our model consists of altruistic households who either run a business or work for others. Entrepreneurial households enjoy high returns due to high productivity while worker households' savings earn the bank deposit rate that is determined in a competitive banking sector and equals the rate of return on foreign bonds. We find that entrepreneurship and intergenerational links via altruism are important factors generating a wealth distribution that mimics the data in the 2000s. However, it is the decline in the interest rate that plays a major role in accounting for the increase in the U.S. wealth inequality since the 1980s. In our model, the decline in the interest rate increases wealth inequality as it affects the two types of households differently. Entrepreneurial households benefit from lower financing costs and increase their investments while worker households face lower returns to their savings as the interest rate declines. Other changes such as the changes in taxation and income risk play a less significant role.

Kolari, Pynnonen, and Tuncez rely on simulation outcomes to criticize the normalization of firm characteristics employed by Bessembinder and Zhang (2013) to assess returns after major corporate events. However, their simulation outcomes simply verify that a non‐linear normalization is inappropriate if the true relation is linear. The relation between log returns and firm characteristics is unknown, but is unlikely to be linear, as the distribution of firm characteristics is strongly skewed. Here, we report on bootstrap simulations that show our methods provide unbiased estimates with appropriate statistical size and high power to detect abnormal returns when implemented in actual data. Kolari, Pynnonen, and Tuncez also provide empirical estimates that comprise useful sensitivity tests. Their results verify that firm characteristics are useful in assessing whether returns to event firms are abnormal, largely confirm our conclusions with regard to SEOs, M&As, and dividend increases, but show that conclusions regarding IPOs depend on implementation choices.

Given overall lack of gender diversity in the venture capital and entrepreneurship industry shown in Calder-Wang and Gompers (2017) we ask: What promotes greater gender diversity in hiring? Does diversity lead to better firm performance and higher investment returns? In this paper, using a unique dataset of the gender of venture capital partners’ children, we find strong evidence that when partners have more daughters, the propensity to hire female partners increases. Moreover, our instrumental variable results suggest that increased gender diversity improves deal and fund performance. Lastly, the effects are primarily driven by the gender of senior partners’ children.

We study how a capital income tax and a wealth tax affect an investor's valuation of a company's stock in an efficient international capital market. Using a one-period model, a model of infinite horizon where the asset generates a future cash flow that is a martingale, and a finite horizon model where we abandon the martingale assumption, we find that a wealth tax and/or a capital income tax do not lead investors to value an investment differently from untaxed investors. Investors who seek a higher pre-tax rate of return due to capital taxes harm their own wealth.

There is considerable interest in the impact of investor attention on investment returns, especially for cryptocurrencies. However, previous research does not distinguish between search-engine attention and social-media forms of attention—even though this distinction is emphasized by marketing professionals. Professional marketers emphasize that attention is optimized by combinations of social-media and search-engine presence. We investigate the bi-directional causalities, and concomitant frequencies, between cryptocurrency returns and investor attention, comparing cryptocurrency sensitivity to Twitter tweets and the intensity of Google searches, as well as combinations of Twitter and Google. For 27 cryptocurrencies, we use a non-parametric wavelet Granger causality test to incorporate multiple time horizons. We also employ Diebold and Yilmaz spillover testing to assess respective pairwise influence between attention measures and respective cryptocurrencies. Results indicate a preponderance of bidirectional Granger causality for the great majority of cryptocurrencies, with the impact of Twitter on cryptocurrencies being shorter term. Consistent with expectations, we identify that bi-directional causalities, and spillovers, of cryptocurrencies with investor attention are significantly more evident for proxies of investor attention that are combinations of social media (Twitter) and search engine intensity (Google), rather than either one of these forms alone. Our results have applicability to a broad range of investor attention studies.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to ascertain which financial factors affect the price-to-earnings ratios of Canadian firms. Methodology: A sample of 578 Canadian firms, across 11 industries, listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange during 2011 to 2018 is examined. Stock prices and financial statements accounts data is collected from S & P Capital IQ. We compute 27 financial factors to use as independent variables to regress on the price-to-earnings ratio dependent variables employing the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) utilizing the software program’s forced, forward, and backward selection methods. Robustness tests are conducted using alternative dates (after the fiscal year end) to discover which model of financial factors best explains the forward price-to-earnings ratio as well as other statistical methods such as analysis of variance. Results: We find a unique model for each of the 3 models based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio date. The financial factors that explain each of the dates after the end of the fiscal year (1 month, 2 months, and 3 months) are the 4 variables: net profit margin, return on investment, total asset turnover, and the natural logarithm of the total assets. For model 3 (1 month after fiscal year end), in addition to the previous 4 factors, the dividends per share is part of the regression equation. All 3 models have strong statistically significant results at an alpha level of one percent. Further, industry effects are deduced and presented. Unique contribution to theory, policy, and practice: The results are unique to a Canadian sample of firms post- International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption. Companies can utilize the empirical findings to manage their financial performance to maximize their price-to-earnings ratio. A product of a firm’s higher price-to-earnings ratio is a lower cost of capital which expands the corporation’s investment opportunities. Investors can apply this research to develop investment strategies hinged on price-to-earnings ratios to augment investment returns.

It is well recognized that institutional municipal portfolio managers prefer premium bonds to those selling near par. This article shows that such aversion to par bonds is justified because they are expected to underperform comparable premium or discount bonds in the near term. The extent of the underperformance depends on the shape of the yield curve and is positively correlated with the level of expected interest rate volatility. The underperformance is attributable to tax considerations. When an investor purchases a municipal bond (muni) below par, the resulting gain is taxed at maturity, and the price is depressed by the present value of the tax. This tax effect amplifies the interest rate sensitivity of discount munis. Munis selling near par are also negatively convex; the potential decline attributable to higher interest rates exceeds the increase stemming from commensurately lower rates. The underperformance of near-par munis relative to those selling at a high premium (or at a deep discount) arises from the resulting combination of extended duration and negative convexity. The changing value of tax liabilities creates a unique challenge in determining interest rate sensitivity and expected return—which conventional analytics fail to recognize. The tax-neutral analytics used in this article not only incorporate the value of future tax costs but also provide an accurate method for predicting muni price changes and investment returns. TOPICS:Fixed income and structured finance, performance measurement, derivatives, options, quantitative methods, statistical methods Key Findings ▪ Because of their negative convexity, municipal bonds (munis) selling near par perform poorly relative to comparable premium and discount bonds. Negative convexity arises from the so-called de minimis tax effect, which further depresses the price once it falls below par. ▪ The expected underperformance depends on the shape of the yield curve and the volatility of the interest rates. Portfolio managers whose performance is based on market prices should avoid par munis in favor of those selling at a high premium. ▪ Tax-neutral option-adjusted spread (OAS) technology is essential for the proper analysis of near-par munis; conventional OAS underestimates their duration and completely misses their negative convexity.

This article shows how the relatively new concept of Perfect Withdrawal Rate can be used in assessing the appropriate sustainable withdrawal amounts from a pot of wealth. This concept can be applied equally to private retirement funds, endowments, and charities—and indeed in any context requiring regular withdrawals from an initial source of funds. The subject of estimating sustainable withdrawal rates usually falls back on describing the likely minimum safe withdrawal possibilities for various portfolio constructions over different decumulation periods. This analysis employs either a long period of historical data or a recombination of data in the form of Monte Carlo simulations. To illustrate the power of the Perfect Withdrawal concept, the article considers the case of someone who initiated retirement on January 1, 2000, at age 65 and, with the benefit of actual investment returns, assesses investment and withdrawal rate options and lessons to be learned from this experience. The article also introduces the concept and a methodology for purchasing a delayed annuity so that at age 85 (on December 31, 2019), the hypothetical retiree is fully transitioned from investment income to annuity income for the rest of their life, no matter how long that may be. TOPICS:Retirement, pension funds, foundations & endowments, quantitative methods, simulations Key Findings ▪ The introduction of delayed annuities into retirement planning helps complete analysis of the decumulation experience. ▪ The larger the sum required for a delayed annuity, the more variable the final withdrawals in the decumulation journey become. ▪ The delayed annuity purchase amount is a moving target; withdrawal amounts have to adapt in the attempt to meet the objective.

This article analyzes the impact of the frequency of investment decisions on long-term investment results. Long-term investment returns are shown to be a nonlinear function of skill, transaction costs, volatility, and frequency. The author uses compound returns to show the minimum skill level that is required to result in a positive expected return after costs and shows the skill level required to outperform the buy-and-hold investor. These can be high for markets that have high transaction costs per unit of volatility. The optimum frequency of investment decisions is derived as that frequency that maximizes the expected terminal value of wealth. Empirical estimates from the US equity and fixed-income markets show that this optimum frequency is considerably different between these markets, even when the investor has an equal amount of skill in each. The author also shows how long-horizon value-at-risk varies with the frequency of investment decision-making. TOPICS:Wealth management, equity portfolio management, fixed income portfolio management, risk management, portfolio construction, performance measurement Key Findings ▪ The author derives the success rate that is required to result in a positive expected return after cost and applies it to directional strategies in the US equity and fixed-income markets. For fixed income, the investor requires a success rate of more than 51%, regardless of the frequency of those decisions. For directional strategies in the US equity market, this minimum success rate varies more with frequency, but it is higher than 53%. ▪ The optimum frequency of investment decisions is derived as that frequency that maximizes expected terminal wealth. The article shows that this frequency is equal to skill times volatility over costs, squared. Because neither of these parameters is likely to be constant through time, the optimum frequency of investment decision-making is also likely to change through time, which has important implications for how an investment process is to be structured. Empirical estimates show very different results for different markets. ▪ Even for highly skilled investment processes, downside risk is meaningful when frequency is low. Downside risks are meaningfully lower only for high-skill investment processes at high frequency. This is an important consideration for investors who place high importance on downside risks at long investment horizons.

I consider the role of news provided by the media as signals used by investors to learn about partisan conflict. Higher partisan conflict induces uncertainty (by increasing the probability of crises) and gridlock (making tax reforms less likely), both affecting investment returns. The true degree of political disagreement is unobservable to investors, who create expectations based on the observation of informative signals. Using a Bayesian learning model, I illustrate how these signals affect investment decisions. To the extent crises are severe enough, an increase in the partisan conflict reduces expected returns and induces lower investment.

The optimal investment to mitigate climate change crucially depends on the discount rate used to evaluate the investment's uncertain future benefits. The appropriate discount rate is a function of the horizon over which these benefits accrue and the riskiness of the investment. In this paper, we estimate the term structure of discount rates for an important risky asset class, real estate, up to the very long horizons relevant for investments in climate change abatement. We show that this term structure is steeply downward-sloping, reaching 2.6% at horizons beyond 100 years. We explore the implications of these new data within both a general asset pricing framework that decomposes risks and returns by horizon and a structural model calibrated to match a variety of asset classes. Our analysis demonstrates that applying average rates of return that are observed for traded assets to investments in climate change abatement is misleading. We also show that the discount rates for investments in climate change abatement that reduce aggregate risk, as in disaster-risk models, are bounded above by our estimated term structure for risky housing, and should be below 2.6% for long-run benefits. This upper bound rules out many discount rates suggested in the literature and used by policymakers. Our framework also distinguishes between the various mechanisms the environmental literature has proposed for generating downward-sloping discount rates.

There is an emerging global trend toward more responsible and sustainable investment practices that is creating an increased appetite for forestry investments. This is against a backdrop of a dearth of forestry investment performance data of the kind suitable to aid econometrically significant investment projections. This article uses historical roundwood timber and lumber price data combined with a forestry discount rate to synthetically create historical forestry investment returns for the last two centuries. A Forestry Investment Total Return (FITR) Index is created from these data. A key advantage of the index is not relying on smoothed timber prices, making returns more representative of their reporting period. The FITR Index shows forestry investment outperforming equities over long durations, with a lower standard deviation of returns and a positive, rather than negative, skew of returns. The article suggests that responsible and sustainable investments can produce strong investment performance. TOPICS:Real assets/alternative investments/private equity, mutual funds/passive investing/indexing, performance measurement, ESG investing Key Findings ▪ The study estimates US forestry investment returns averaged 9.24% per annum from 1871 to 2018 with a standard deviation of returns of 12.3% and a positive skew of 88%. Comparable returns on US equities were 8.95% per annum with a higher standard deviation of 17.9% and a negative skew of 13%. ▪ Estimated forestry returns are based on an assumed forestry discount rate and changes in US timber prices over the period. The article shows that changes in timber prices relative to consumer prices have a consistent pattern going back to 1269. ▪ Forestry investment is likely to be a win–win for investors seeking sustainable investments and for policymakers by providing the potential for strong investment returns while also tackling environmental and climate change.

Purpose This paper aims to analytically show that in an over-lapping-generation (OLG) model, low earning cohorts bear unwanted risk and absorb higher economic cost than high earning cohorts do. Design/methodology/approach This paper aims to consider the individual's risk appetite, using a simple utility function, based on consumptions and discount rates in each period. This paper calibrates the model according to teh Israeli pension system as a representative of a small open developed organization for economic cooperation and development country. Israel is considered as unique case study in the pension landscape, as it implements almost pure defined contribution pension scheme with continuous trend of pension market capitalization (Giorno and Jacques, 2016). Hence, this study finds Israel suitable for examining the theoretical mix of pension scheme. That model enables exploring combined solutions for adequate old age benefits, involving the first and the second pension pillars, under fiscal constraints. Findings It comes out that for risk-averse individuals, the optimal degree of funding is negatively correlated to asset returns' volatility and positively correlated to earning decile level. The neglect of risk and individual's current earning level will thus overstate the contribution level and funded percentage from total contributions. Moreover, even in an economy with minimum government intervention, and highly developed private pension fund with high average of rate of return, the authors find it is optimal that the pension system contains a sizeable unfunded pillar. This paper innovates by revealing a socio-economic anomaly in design of mix pension systems in favor of high earning cohorts on the expense of economic loss of low earning cohorts. Practical implications The model presented in this paper could be implemented in countries with mix pension systems, as an alternative to public social transfers or means tested, alleviating poverty and inequality in old age. Additionally, this model could raise the public awareness of the financial sustainability of the unfunded pay-as-you-go pillar to diversify financial risk in pension systems, especially for low earning cohort in society. Social implications One area of research that is particularly relevant in this context concerns the issue of alleviating poverty and income inequality. It is often stressed that the prevention of old age poverty is among the central targets of well-designed pension system (Holzmann and Hinz, 2005). The conceptualization of minimum pension guarantee used in this composition allows to clearly capturing the notion of such a poverty and social targets as an integral part of the pension system rolls. Originality/value This paper innovates by revealing a socio-economic anomaly in design of mix pension systems in favor of high earning cohorts on the expense of economic loss of low earning cohorts. That comes to realize through the level of total contribution rates and funded share that are generally optimal for high earning cohorts but not for low earning cohorts. This paper identifies that the effect of anomaly is most significant in a market characterized with high income-inequality level. This paper finds that imposing intra-generational risk sharing instrument in the form of minimum pension guarantee can re-balance pension design among different earning cohorts. This solution demonstrates balancing effect on the entire economy.

PurposeThe study aims at investigating the impact of real earnings management (REM) on the cross-sectional stock return after considering the moderating role of market effect, size effect, value effect and momentum effect.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses weekly and monthly data of 3,085 Bombay Stock Exchange listed stocks spanning over twenty years, from January 2000 to December 2019. REM is measured through metrics developed by Roychowdhury (2006), namely, abnormal levels of operating cash flows, production costs and discretionary expenditure. The study employs univariate and bivariate portfolio-level analysis.FindingsThe findings deduced from the empirical results demonstrate that investors perceive downward REM as an element of risk; hence, they discount the stock prices at a higher rate. On the contrary, results show that investors positively perceive upward REM; hence, they hold the stocks even at a lower rate of return. This anomaly is found to be robust for all kinds of considered moderations.Practical implicationsThe findings have important managerial implications as investors are found to assign different weights to different forms of REM, depending upon the perception regarding the magnitude of risk involved in different forms. Managers can accommodate this information during their short- and long-term corporate planning.Originality/valueFirst, the study is among the earlier attempts to examine the association between REM and stock returns by considering the moderating role of cross-sectional effects. Second, the study considers the direction and endogenous nature of REM while investigating the issue.

PurposeThe aim of this study is to comment upon the relatively straightforward but often misunderstood role of gearing (or leverage) on the potential equity return of a property investment portfolio.Design/methodology/approachThis education briefing is an explanation of the how the addition of individual assets to a portfolio can, with gearing, impact upon the portfolio return.FindingsAlthough, this case study is relatively straightforward, it shows how portfolios can be geared to give enhanced returns at differing, aggregate and levels of risk.Practical implicationsThe process of borrowing at a bank rate below the return rate on an investment project can increase the equity return of the project as long as all incomes and discount rate remain at appropriate levels.Originality/valueThis is a review of existing models.

Traditional plain vanilla options may be regarded as contingent claims whose value depends upon the simple returns of an underlying asset. These options have convex payoffs, and as a consequence of Jensen’s inequality, their prices increase as a function of maturity in the absence of interest rates. This results in long-dated call option premia being excessively expensive in relation to the fraction of a corresponding insured portfolio. We show that replacing the simple return payoff with the log return call option payoff leads to substantial premium savings while providing the similar insurance protection. Call options on log returns have favorable prices for very long maturities on the scale of decades. This property enables them to be attractive securities for long-term investors, such as pension funds. TOPICS:Options, pension funds Key Findings ▪ This article develops valuation and risk techniques for a log return payoff option under a Geometric Brownian Motion. ▪ A comparison is made between premium advantages of the log return contract to those of traditional European options. ▪ A pricing and optimal excise boundary formula for perpetual and finite maturity American log return options id derived. ▪ This article examines long-term insurance applications of the new contract that are prohibitively expensive for traditional options.

Using regulatory data free of self-reporting bias for 2007–16, we decompose investment returns of 455 Dutch pension funds according to their key investment decisions, i.e., asset allocation, market timing and security selection. In extension to existing papers, we also assess the impact of benchmark selection. Over time, asset allocation explains 39% of the variation of returns, whereas benchmark selection, timing and selection explain 11%, 9% and 16%, respectively. Across pension funds, asset allocation explains on average only 19% of the variation in pension fund returns. Benchmark selection dominates this by explaining 33% of cross-sectional returns. We relate the choice for a specific benchmark to investment, risk and style preferences.

This article examines the use of technical analysis, namely, a moving-average technique, to improve upon a buy-and-hold investment strategy during financial bubbles. Econometric techniques can identify financial bubbles in real time, and these techniques successfully identify commonly acknowledged bubbles in the US stock market. The authors find that technical analysis significantly improves investment returns over a buy-and-hold strategy during three of the five financial bubbles since 1928 and performs identically in the other two. The authors also demonstrate similar results using three international markets. TOPICS:Developed markets, financial crises and financial market history, portfolio theory, technical analysis Key Findings • Technical trading techniques may be effective during periods of market instability, such as a financial bubble. • Econometric techniques can identify stock market financial bubbles in real time. • The combination of technical trading and real-time identification of financial bubbles can be used to significantly outperform a buy-and-hold strategy.

This paper employs Swedish data on households' stock holdings to investigate how consumption responds to changes in stock market returns. We instrument the actual capital gains and dividend payments with past portfolio weights. Unrealized capital gains lead to a marginal propensity to consume (MPC) of 23 percent for the bottom 50% of the wealth distribution and about 3 percent for the top 30% of the wealth distribution. Households’ consumption is significantly more responsive to dividend payouts across all parts of the wealth distribution. Our findings are consistent with households treating capital gains and dividends as separate sources of income.

We examine whether cross-firm return predictability is associated with accounting quality (AQ), and find that stock returns of good AQ firms significantly positively predict one-month-ahead stock returns to industry- and size- matched poor AQ firms. In testing a delayed-information-processing mechanism behind the cross-firm return predictability, we find that: (i) Analyst earnings forecast revisions (FR) mimic the return patterns, as FR of good AQ firms significantly positively predict one-month-ahead FR of matched poor AQ firms; (ii) Cross-firm return predictability is concentrated in months with substantial news arrival, but not in no-news months; (iii) Cross-firm return predictability is stronger when the good AQ predictor firms have a richer information environment than poor AQ firms as proxied by analyst following and institutional ownership. Collectively the results uncover a new relation between accounting quality and stock return dynamics.

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to determine the movements (long-term trend) of the exchange rate by forecasting the rate of return and risk (return to variability ratio, RVR) that financial assets have in two economies and for four different investments. Design/Methodology/Approach: Risk averse speculators will try to maximize their return and minimize their risk by investing domestically or abroad, but these capital flows will affect the value of the two currencies (their exchange rate). Findings: The empirical results show that before 2001 the return in the U.S. was high and the dollar was appreciated; after 2001, the same return became negative and the dollar was depreciated, but after 2004 the returns have growing positively for the U.S., and the returns for the Euro-zone are falling. Practical Implications: We can say that the dollar may appreciate with respect to euro, except if we will have any other domestic or external shocks on the two economies. Still the results of this analysis are not very conclusive. Originality/value: International investors are investing in countries with higher return and lower risk. This increase in demand for these assets, increases the demand for currency in that country and its currency is appreciated., peer-reviewed

A high rate of return on the investment is crucially dependent on rational investment decision making because rational investment decision ensures the successful return of an investment, especially in stocks. Investment decision making is affected by many factors; most of them are related to psychological and behavioural. Since it is difficult to make rational decisions about investment, researchers are try-ing to discover the factors that influence the investor’s behaviour about decision making. For the rational estimation of success rate in stocks, investors have tried many traditional methods but reached on unsatisfactory results. However, Behavioral Finance has addressed this issue and discovered the most crucial factors that may affect the investment decision making. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the influence of the factors of behavioural finance that affect decision making in the stock exchange. Three factors have been selected and used to gauge the impact on investment decision making. These factors include; overconfidence bias, representativeness bias, and availability bias. A structured close-ended questionnaire has been used to collect the data, and data was collected from 211 respondents who are investors on Karachi stock exchange. To analyze the collected data, multiple linear regression (MLR) model has been used. The result of this study shows that all three independent variables have a significant impact on investment decision making. Moreover, the relationship is positive between the independent and dependent variables. Therefore, it can be concluded that the null hypothesis is rejected. This study will assist investors to make decisions rationally in the stock market.

This paper shows that the decline in the labor share over the past 30 years was not offset by an increase in the capital share. Capital costs are the product of the required rate of return on capital and the value of the capital stock, and the capital share is the ratio of capital costs to gross value added. The capital share is declining, driven by a large decline in the cost of capital. Measured in percentage terms, the decline in the capital share (30%) is much more dramatic than the decline in the labor share (10%). The profit share has increased by more than 12 percentage points. The value of this increase in profits amounts to over $1.1 trillion in 2014, or $14 thousand per employee. The decline in the capital share is unlikely to be driven by unobserved capital. In a standard model, a decline in competition is necessary to generate simultaneous declines in the labor and capital shares. A calibrated model shows that a decline in competition quantitatively matches the data. This paper provides reduced form empirical evidence that a decline in competition plays a significant role in the decline in the labor share. Increases in industry concentration are associated with declines in the labor share. These results suggest that the decline in the shares of labor and capital are due to a decline in competition and call into question the conclusion that the decline in the labor share is an efficient outcome.

The main goal of this article is to investigate empirically the Kalman approach to estimate the time-varying beta parameter as a systematic investment risk market in Poland, Czech Republic, and Hun...

We study the consumption and portfolio decisions by incorporating mortality risk and altruistic factor in the classical model of Merton (Rev Econ Stat 51:247–257, 1969; J Econ Theory 3:373–413, 1971) and Yaari (Rev Econ Stud 32(2):137–150, 1965). We find that besides the present-biased preference, the process of updating mortality information may be another underlying cause of dynamically time-inconsistent consumption behavior. We use the game-theoretic approach to obtain the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. Furthermore, we obtain the closed-form solution for the logarithmic utility and explore comparative statics and implications for dynamic behavior. We present numerical results for the power utility that shows the sophisticated individual enjoys higher expected discounted utility than the naive. Our analytical solution enables us to generate a set of testable predictions that are consistent with existing empirical evidence. In particular, we show that for a moderate range of expected investment return, individuals will exhibit a “hump-shaped” consumption pattern, as widely documented in the empirical literature.

Gollier proposed in 2008 a model for the analysis of pension schemes that is helpful to focus attention on the impact of intergenerational risk sharing and on the role of the participation constraint. He uses the model to analyze the relative attractiveness of a collective scheme with respect to schemes that may be implemented by individuals for themselves. The analysis makes use of an assumption concerning the ownership rights of investment returns realized by generations that are between career start and retirement at the time of the transition from an individual to a collective system. The present paper investigates the consequences of adopting an alternative assumption. In a calibration exercise, the increase of the effective rate of return obtained by switching from an existing ‘autarky’ scheme to an infinite-horizon ‘collective’ scheme is found to be 8 basis points, as opposed to 72 basis points as reported by Gollier. Additionally, the effects are considered of changes in the specification of agents' preferences, aiming to express the specific nature of retirement income provision in the second pillar. The Black–Scholes assumptions are used to model the economic environment, so that many results can be obtained in closed form.

In recent years, a growing number of capital market professionals have projected a low-return environment in US investment portfolios – where returns in most asset classes are expected to drop below historical rates. While these specific forecasts may not fully materialize, it is natural for cyclical investment markets to go through extended periods of lower returns, creating significant risks for public pension systems which rely on investment returns to sustain their long-term solvency and offset budgetary contributions. This paper uses a simulation method to examine the long-term effect of a low-return environment on the unfunded liabilities and contribution costs of US public pension systems while considering the moderating effects of asset allocation strategies, amortization approaches, and contribution policies.

Promotion of foreign investment attractiveness, including tax incentive measures, for the purpose of economic development of a country and its particular industries is an important economic and tax policy problem. This article presents the results of construction and estimation of an empirical model that describes the influence of the capital tax burden indicator (average tax rates calculated for Russian economic industries using the OECD methodology) and the rate of return along with other industry characteristics on the distribution of FDI flows among Russian economic industries. Practical limitations derived from capital and investment market imperfections as well as data availability are discussed during the model development process. The results of estimation of various specifications of the constructed model on industry data for 29 Russian industries for the period 2006–2015 through the pool regression method show a generally significant negative effect of the tax burden indicator on foreign investment inflow into industries. For the full model specification, elasticity of FDI flow with respect to the tax burden indicator is equal to 0.88.

This paper, using the Australian stock market data, examines the investor-herding and risk-profiles link that has implications for asset pricing, portfolio diversification and foreign investments. As investors may herd towards a specific factor, sector or style to combat market conditions for optimizing investment returns, examining such herding can reveal investors' risk profiles. We employ State-Space models for extracting time series of herd dynamics and the proportion of signal explained by herding (PoSEH). The possibility of a leverage effect between market returns and volatility and its implications are discussed. The change in market volatility strengthens PoSEH; its impact is maximum on high return days of stocks. Quantile regression analysis shows that herding and adverse herding can emerge during the worst and best performance days of stock returns, but extreme uncertainty can bring both herding behaviours to a near halt. The study reveals the presence of a regulated stock market environment and the change in volatility and risk-aversion as the determinants of herding behaviour.

This article uses Monte Carlo analysis to simulate returns for a popular retirement portfolio strategy and the income derived from it in retirement in order to calculate the chance of it being depleted while the retiree is still alive. The author analyzes and contrasts several withdrawal strategies from the account to illustrate the important tradeoffs between income needs and account sustainability. Furthermore, the simulations are compared with payouts from an annuity to show the important differences between each vehicle’s ability to provide income. The primary findings are that portfolios have a higher chance of account instability with advanced age and income needs, whereas annuities may provide less income earlier in retirement, but the income is sustainable for life. TOPICS:Wealth management, retirement, pension funds, analysis of individual factors/risk premia Key Findings • The article simulates account balances and annual income withdrawals from a life-cycle investment fund held into retirement. The stochastic simulations generally showed relatively higher rates of account exhaustion past age 90. • The analyzed accounts were spent down in two ways: (1) at the Internal Revenue Service–mandated required minimum distribution (RMD) rule and (2) at a withdrawal rule equal to the maximum of either the RMD or a fixed amount to allow investors to smooth income over the rest of their life. This allows for a comprehensive analysis of differential income from a portfolio in retirement because of stochastic investment returns. The simulations show significant heterogeneity with respect to income in retirement when the drawdown follows the Internal Revenue Service’s rule for RMDs. The principal findings also show that when retirees follow a fixed annual withdrawal rule, they face nontrivial probabilities that they will either outlive their retirement savings or face the prospect of significantly diminished income at a time when additional work is not feasible. • When the spend-down simulations are compared with an annuity—low-fixed income withdrawals from the account—real annuity payouts typically offer higher income in retirement until advanced ages. As income needs rise, the life-cycle account may offer higher income early in retirement, but with an increasing probability of account depletion later in retirement, upon which the account becomes exhausted while the annuity still provides income.

Purpose This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one. Findings Over the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation. Practical implications The results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

In this article, we evaluate the rate of return to government efforts to promote broadband. Specifically, we estimate the impact of USDA's broadband loan and grant programs on the average payroll per worker using zip code level data from the Zip Code Business Patterns for the period from 1997 to 2007. Our results indicate that two of the smaller broadband programs (the Pilot loan program and the broadband grants program) likely had no effect on local payroll per workers. On the other hand, the largest program in terms of funding and coverage (the current broadband loan program) likely had a positive impact. Our estimate implies that a $1 per capita increase in a particular zip code's one‐time receipt of the current program broadband loan results in a $0.92 increase in payroll per worker annually. Our calculated point estimates of the benefit: cost ratios for this broadband program range from 1.98 to 2.99, depending on assumptions about the time frame over which benefits accrue. However, the confidence intervals are wide enough to include the possibility that the costs outweigh the benefits.(JEL L86, J30, O18)

We study the effects of different pricing schemes on the overall surplus in a privately managed retirement system with multiple service providers and switching costs. We develop a theoretical model based on the Chilean retirement system and consider a repeated auction for monopoly rights over new enrollees. We consider a dynamic model solved by pension fund administrators and by consumers. We compare three different pricing schemes: (a) fees on contributions, (b) fees on returns, and (c) a two‐part tariff including an auction over a guaranteed rate of return and allowing the firm to keep a portion of returns generated above this guaranteed rate. We also consider heterogeneity across individuals where agents earn high or low wages and high‐wage customers have proportionally lower switching costs due to more cost‐effective access to financial planning services. We find that auction participants subsidize consumers. We also treat savings as a durable good. In this case, pricing over returns worsens the switching related inefficiencies just described relative to pricing over contributions, despite the better incentives it provides. These inefficiencies can be resolved by allowing firms to price discriminate.

This paper studies the reaction of share prices in the Chilean securities market at the sectoral level to the arrival of COVID-19 in the country. The following question is answered: Did the Chilean market act efficiently before the arrival of COVID-19? To answer this question, an event study using a 10-day investment return window was applied to the industrial sectors that make up the IPSA (Selective Stock Price Index). To obtain the abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) for the event window, three models were used: (1) adjusted average return, (2) adjusted market return, and (3) the market model. The results of the study show an overreaction to market losses, except in the utilities industry, causing greater losses after the event, which shows that information is slow to be incorporated in the previous stage and suggests that the prices of the assets do not reflect all the information available in the market. A significant finding is that the Chilean stock market responded inefficiently in the face of the arrival of the pandemic. This information is useful for investors in the formation of portfolios and/or investment strategies with a view to the long term This research received support from the Family Business Chair of the University de Lleida.

We present a simple, linear asset pricing model of the cross section of Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) returns. MBS earn risk premia as compensation for their exposure to prepayment risk. We measure prepayment risk and estimate security risk loadings using real data on prepayment forecasts vs. realizations. Estimated loadings on prepayment risk are monotonically decreasing in securities’ coupons relative to the par coupon, as predicted by the fundamental effect of prepayment on the value of bonds trading above and below par. Prepayment risks appear to be priced by specialized MBS investors. In particular, we find convincing evidence that prepayment risk prices change sign over time with the sign of a representative MBS investor’s exposure to prepayment risk.

This paper examines the presence of bubbles — price changes that cannot be attributed to market fundamentals — in weekly US retail gasoline prices for ten US cities, and whether these bubbles are affected by hurricane events and anti–price gouging laws. Rolling-window, right-tailed unit root tests were used to identify and date bubbles. The analysis found 6 to 22 bubbles, lasting 4 weeks or longer, in city-level retail gasoline prices between 2000 and 2017. A linear regression model of the adjustment speed coefficients from the bubble identification step found that hurricane events increase the rate of price explosivity (or slow the rate of return to equilibrium) following a shock. The regression estimates also imply that state anti–price gouging laws can counteract these effects.

In this article, the authors examine the evolving composition of the global equity market over the last 121 years. Using the DMS database from Morningstar, they study the long-term returns on all the main asset classes. The authors present investment returns based on 90 countries, 23 of which have histories starting in 1900. Over the long run, equity returns have systematically exceeded the investment performance of government bonds and Treasury bills. For the world as a whole, stocks beat bills by 4.4% per year and bonds by 3.1% per year. In the United States, stocks outperformed bills by 5.8% per year, compared with 3.7% per year in the world ex-US. Contrary to many equity investors’ expectations at the dawn of the 21st century, the United States continued to outperform non-US stock markets by a significant margin. TOPICS:Security analysis and valuation, global markets, financial crises and financial market history, performance measurement Key Findings ▪ The long-term growth of US financial assets has been exceptional. The US stock market now represents 56% of the market capitalization of worldwide equities. ▪ Over the 1900–2020 period, the annualized real (inflation-adjusted) return on US equities was 6.6%, that on long government bonds was 2.1%, and that on Treasury bills was 0.8%. The US experience is not a guide to the typical non-US market. ▪ The 6.6% real USD return on US equities contrasts with 4.5% real USD return on a 90-country index of international, non-US equities over the same 121-year period. The US was an outlier. ▪ US stock market returns were superior not only in the 20th century. In the 21st century, real US returns (4.6%) have exceeded the world ex-US (2.8%) and Europe (2.5%). ▪ US markets have beaten non-US markets with the help of expansionary monetary policy and a high weighting in technology companies. Whether US exceptionalism will persist is an open question.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss the principal measures of performance used in property and other investment types. In particular, the briefing will explore the relationship of the expected IRR with the initial return, highlighting the role of growth in the investment dynamic. Design/methodology/approach This education briefing is an overview of investment growth models with worked examples. Findings The analysis of property growth models is akin to the Fisher and Gordon growth models used in other finance markets. Practical implications This comparison of the models can work for all forms of investment. Similarly, instead of looking at the overall return as the measure of comparison (expected vs required), it is possible to work backwards and deduce market expectations and compare these with the investors view on those variables. Originality/value This is a review of existing models.

A detailed treatment of aggregation and capital heterogeneity substantially improves the performance of the investment CAPM. Firm-level predicted returns are constructed from firm-level accounting variables and aggregated to the portfolio level to match with portfolio-level stock returns. Working capital forms a separate productive input besides physical capital. The model simultaneously fits the value, momentum, investment, and profitability premiums and partially explains positive stock-fundamental return correlations, the procyclical and short-term dynamics of the momentum and profitability premiums, and the countercyclical and long-term dynamics of the value and investment premiums. However, the model falls short in explaining momentum crashes. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online..

The expected equity risk premium is a key input of many asset prcing models in…nance. There exist a number of methods to estimate the risk premium. It is alsowell documented that the risk premium is time-varying. This paper brie‡y reviews twodi¤erent approaches. More speci…cally, the historical average and relative estimationare taken into closer examination. The …rst approach is applied to estimate equity riskpremium for stock markets in Greater China when the stock markets were recoveringfrom the bottom. Then the relative estimation approach is also adopted to empiricaldata to justify the …ndings in the …rst one, which takes into consideration the lowerrequired rate of return for Chinese investors due to lack of investment opportunities.After making these adjustments, we …nd that risk premium in mainland China is close torisk premium for Hong Kong and Taiwan markets. All of those markets have higher riskpremium compared to US market. The risk premium for Shanghai and Shenzhen marketare about 8% and 10% respectively. For Hong Kong and Taiwan these numbers become8% and 9%, where the long-term forward-looking risk premium for US market is about4%.

Most impact evaluations of Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) and Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCTs) focus on the returns to increased human capital investments that will be reaped largely or exclusively in the future (e.g., when current children have increased productivities as adults). But the objectives of these programs are not only to increase human capital investments with implications for future levels and distributions of income but also to alleviate current poverty and reduce current inequality. The current distributional gains from such programs depend on the degree of inequality aversion in the social welfare function. Simulations show that, for a range of inequality aversion parameters, the welfare gains from current redistribution for the Mexican PROGRESA CCT program can be as large, or possibly much larger, than the estimated present discounted value of future earnings from human capital investments in lower and upper secondary schooling. These, moreover, are underestimates of the gains from redistribution because, in addition to current gains, such gains will be augmented in the future through the distribution of the returns on the human capital investments induced by cash transfer programs. Therefore, to fully evaluate such programs, it is critical to incorporate the distributional gains, not only the impacts on human capital investments.