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Aim To develop an integrative framework to evaluate variation in aboveground carbon storage ( AGC). A model that can be applied to understand and predict how global-change drivers influence tropical carbon sinks. Location Old-growth tropical forests world-wide. Methods Using structural equation modelling ( SEM), we propose an a priori model to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of climate, stand variables (basal area, tree diameter and wood density at plot level) and liana abundance on AGC. Our model indicated that stand variables increased AGC while liana abundance decreased AGC indirectly via negative effects on stand variables. We used a multigroup SEM to test the generality of our framework using a standardized dataset of 145 plots (0.1 ha) in dry, moist and wet tropical forests. Results Our model explained over 85% variation in AGC and showed a positive and consistent relationship between stand variables and AGC across forests types. The effects of climate on AGC were indirect rather than direct, with negative effects of temperature in all forests. Liana abundance reduced tree diameter and basal area in moist forests, but did not affect AGC in wet or dry forests. Main conclusions Our results suggest that climate affects AGC indirectly, via its direct influence on stand variables and liana abundance. The effects of lianas on AGC result from reductions in stand variables and are as important as climate for moist forests, which harbour the greatest tropical carbon pools. Our model was consistent across forest types. This highlights the usefulness of an integrative framework to improve predictions of the effects of drivers of global change on tropical carbon sinks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze here how much carbon is being accumulated annually by secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) and how structure, composition, time since abandonment, and climate can influence the dynamics of forest carbon accumulation. The study was carried out in Santa Rosa National Park in Guanacaste province, Costa Rica and Mata Seca State Park in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Total carbon storage and carbon accumulation were obtained for both sites from the sum of the aboveground carbon and belowground carbon gain plus the annual litterfall. Carbon accumulation of these TDFs varied from 2.6 Mg C ha−1 y−1 to 6.3 Mg C ha−1 y−1, depending on the age of the forest stands. Time since abandonment and number of stems per plot were the best predictors for carbon storage, annual carbon gains, and losses. Mortality rates and carbon losses were also associated with seasonal climate variability. We found significant correlations between tree mortality, carbon losses and mean seasonal temperature, mean seasonal precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and the Oceanic Niño Index. Carbon dynamics in tropical dry forests are driven by time since abandonment and forest structure; however, rising temperature and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can have a significant impact on tree mortality and carbon losses. Depending on their location and land-use history, some dry forests are more impacted by climatic extremes than others, and differences between secondary stages are expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Low-cloud cover in cloud forests is declining. • Low-cloud trends over 23 years in 521 cloud forests were evaluated. • Seventy percent of the cloud forests experienced a decrease in low-clouds. • Cloud forests experience steeper declines in low-clouds than in tropical landmasses. • Low-cloud trends indicate potential threats to species and ecosystem services. Clouds are critical to the biodiversity and function of Tropical Montane Cloud Forests (TMCF) as they control water regimes and sunlight that can be perceived by plants. These ecosystems provide a key role in ecosystem services to humanity and are considered hotspots of endemism, given that the number of species is restricted to their microclimates. The cloudiness in these ecosystems is projected to decline owing to global warming, but recent temporal trends remain unclear. Here, we evaluated trends in low-cloud fractions (CF) (e.g., the proportion of an area covered by low-cloud) and other Essential Climatic Variables (ECV) (e.g., surface temperature, pressure, soil moisture, and precipitation) for 521 sites worldwide with TMFCs from 1997 to 2020. We hypothesize that recent traces of global warming over the last few decades have led to decreases in CF on TMCFs. The previous was also assessed globally and among biogeographic realms to identify regional trends. We calculated trends by aggregating hourly observations from ERA5 reanalysis and CHIRPS into annual averages and then using linear regressions to calculate slopes (i.e., rate of change) (Δ, year−1). Our results suggest that CF trends at the TMCFs range between −64.7×10−4 and 51.4×10−4 CF year−1, revealing that 70 % of the assessed sites have experienced reductions in CF. Declines in low-clouds in these ecosystems are 253 % more severe than tropical landmasses when peak values of density distribution are compared (TMCFs: −7.8×10−4 CF year−1; tropical landmasses −2.3×10−4 CF year−1). Despite this, CF trends differ among biogeographic realms, as those TMCFs from the Neotropics and Indomalayan realms have the most pronounced declines. Decreases in CF were also associated with increases in surface temperature and pressure and decreases in soil moisture, revealing that the TMCF's climate is changing to warmer environments. These climatic shifts may represent imprints of global change on TMCFs, highlighting a current threat to species and essential ecosystem services that these ecosystems provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]