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Climate change is becoming a defining factor for communities in South Asia. Forming one-fifth of the world population, the region increasingly faces climate-induced disasters such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, cyclones etc. This region also has one of the world's poorest people who struggle to cope with the rapidly changing climatic conditions. Agriculture still employs many people in the region, one of the worst-hit sectors. Agriculture will become untenable in some parts of the region due to climate change. Monsoon patterns have changed, and agriculture does not guarantee sustainable income for the vast majority. Many climate change adaptations have been initiated in the region in response to the threat of climate change. Scholars and practitioners feel that these adaptations must be transformative to be effective. In this paper, we examine eight such adaptations from three South Asian Countries – Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, from the lens of transformative adaptation. We found that no single adaptation initiative meets all the criteria for sustainable socio-ecological transformations. However, there is a significant overlap between different typologies of transformation as envisaged in the paper and literature. We conclude that the concept of socio-ecological transformation is new for South Asia, so integrating it into the programmes and policies is the need of the hour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governing transitions have assumed increasing significance in managing change with respect to climate change and rapid periurbanization. In this respect, evidence from sustainability transitions research in South Asia stipulates the need for institutional innovations that are suitable to the governance context, which is characterized by a fuzzy field of "speculative frontiers," and strong hierarchically structured mechanisms. This paper focuses on Chennai, India to ascertain the potentials of "adaptive governance" in this periurban region of the Global South. We approach this by (a) defining the periurban space from a bio-regional, socioecological systems perspective, (b) complementing it with a zonal classification considering disaster and climate change risks, and (c) presenting an adaptive governance framework. Based on analyzing existing governance structures, the paper discusses identified syndromes, synergistic potentials and activities for adaptive governance, especially highlighting water and agroecologyrelated pathways. Our integrated analytical approach is (a) multi-dimensional deploying the adaptive governance framework, (b) multi-level considering local, intermediate and state governance, and (c) multi-scalar applying macro, meso and micro scales. The implications underscore that transformative interventions, sooner or later, will have to challenge the system that produces such climate vulnerabilities. In spite of several barriers, there are noteworthy indications of adaptive governance practices discernible in numerous niche projects in the Chennai region that demonstrate diverse embryonic forms to build more strategic and conscientious approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought has a paramount impact on global agriculture and food security. However, the study on future cropland areas that can incur drought is inadequate. This paper uses input parameters from 7 CMIP6 models for 7 future scenarios (SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP4‐3.4, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) to measure South Asian cropland exposure to drought and its underlying factors. Some defined epochs such as 2021–2040 (near‐term), 2041–2060 (mid‐term), 2081–2100 (long‐term), and 1995–2014 (reference period) are designed to explore diverse outlooks of the change. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and the Run theory methods are applied to detect drought. Results indicate an intensified cropland (under SSP4‐3.4, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain region of South Asia, where mostly the variation occurs among scenarios and periods. Notably, the future cropland exposed to drought will increase in the 2021–2040, and 2041–2060 periods, but it intends to decline during the 2081–2100. Relatively, the exposed cropland will upturn highest by 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term period and decrease by −8.2% (SSP5‐8.5) in the end future. Spatially, distributed cropland in the central, south‐west, and portion of the northeast of South Asia are subjective to be exposed largely, but it can drop greatly across the eastern part by the end future. Importantly, the climate change effect plays a grounding role in future exposure change over the region during the near to mid‐term periods, while the cropland change effect is predominant in the long‐term perspectives. However, these findings signify the urgency of policymaking focusing on drought mitigation to ensure food security. Plain Language Summary: Estimating drought‐induced cropland exposure is the pivotal aspect of agricultural risk assessment for drought impacts. The purposes of this study are to explore (a) how much of the cropland area would be exposed to drought under SSP scenarios; and (b) the degree to which climate change and cropland change effects contribute to changes in exposure. In this regard, we conducted a multi‐model and multi‐scenario‐based analysis to reveal variations in the cropland area exposed to drought in South Asia. Among the seven scenario combinations, the highest percentage of cropland exposed to drought was found at 49.2% (SSP3‐7.0) in the mid‐term epoch (2041–2060). The climate change effect seems to be the key contributor in the near‐term to mid‐term period, whereas it is the cropland change effect long‐term. To reduce drought risk, we recommend focusing on strong climate change mitigation policy development in the near‐ and mid‐term periods at a global scale and strict land‐use management policy interventions in the long‐term period at the regional level. Key Points: Larger cropland area will experience drought in the 2040–2060 period, while it will decline by the end of 21st centuryThe exposed cropland will increase by 49.2% under SSP3‐7.0 than that of historical timeThe climate change effect is the pivotal contributor in exposure changes over South Asia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss the main findings in the Special issue on Pastoralism in South Asia from the eight papers based on research conducted in the Himalayan region of South Asia. An overview is presented of pastoralism in the Himalayan region, including India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan. Drawing parallels with the global stresses to pastoralists, papers in this special issue highlighted three sets of contemporary stresses to the pastoralists of the Himalayan region viz. (a) lack of herding labour, associated changing aspirations of youth and decline in traditional knowledge systems; (b) continued stresses from the state and between the formal and informal institutions; and (c) climatic stresses and associated impacts on the rangeland and livestock health. A synthesis of findings from all eight case studies suggests how the issues around pastoral livelihoods and rangeland management in the Himalayan region are entangled across social, political and ecological dimensions. However, instead of only being impacted by the stresses, the pastoral communities are showing adaptations to various kinds of uncertainties and variabilities. Based on these findings from across eight sites in the Himalayan region, we argue that understanding of the problems as well as proposed solutions from the policymakers should be tailored according to the particular social, political and ecological contexts. Other than the issues given prominence in this special issue, the role of markets and social security are some of the other important concerns to be addressed in the region, which can be best addressed by creating an interface between pastoralists and policymakers, practitioners and the government, while making the best use of pastoral knowledge and their way of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses grave challenges to global peace and stability. Nowhere is the relation between the climate crisis and the increased threat of nuclear war clearer than in South Asia, where approximately 700 million people in India, Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh depend on the shared waters of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins. These river systems, fed by Himalayan glaciers, are diminishing markedly due to climate change. As geopolitical tensions in the region intensify, it becomes even more crucial to address and eliminate the two intertwined existential threats of water scarcity (caused by climate change) and the risk of nuclear war. This paper analyses the Indus River conflict and the Brahmaputra conflict in turn and offers effective strategies and recommendations for dealing with the threats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a consistent rise in urban disasters, particularly in developing countries located in tropical areas. Among various challenges of disaster risk management and climate change impacts, it is noted that most residents are poorly informed about their risk exposure or apposite response. The paper is based on the premise that one important cause for this gap is inadequate emphasis on risk communication at different levels of planning and agreements. Accordingly, it highlights some important gaps in the risk communication across international agreements including Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and evaluates their impacts at the local level. It brings three selected urban case studies located in the tropical areas of the South Asia region that illustrate gaps in risk communication that result in enhanced vulnerability and deviations in response. The findings are based on secondary data and literature focusing on global agreements, risk communication, and disaster response. The paper argues that even though global strategies address urban risks, the fragmented nature of risk communication results in poor response and contributes to losses that occur in disasters. Three critical gaps noted in risk communication include (i) it not prioritized at different levels, (ii) inadequate structures to measure its impacts and stakeholders inclusiveness, and (iii) indifference to cultural diversity and integration. Further, it is suggested that there is a need to redefine risk communication at the global scale that extends beyond warning generation and considers multiple factors influencing response including interlinked vulnerabilities and variations in perceptions emerging from varied geographical, socio-cultural, economic, and political processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In all global challenges such as climate change, pandemic, nuclear proliferation etc, scientific and technological cooperation is playing a vital role in addressing these multilateral problems. Recent years have witnessed the formidable presence of science, technology and innovation in international relations. In pursuant to this, Science Diplomacy is gaining remarkable attention in international relations and solving global problems. The EIR Of orum in European Union, e-ASIA JRP in South East Asia, African Scientific Institute in Africa and the Arctic Council in the Arctic region have promoted science diplomacy among the member countries while addressing the emerging global challenges. However, these efforts of scientific diplomacy and a comprehensive multilateral mechanism is a distant reality in South Asia. Despite the incongruities, India has taken up several steps - from launching the SAARC satellite to facilitating COVID Vaccine - to promote its science diplomacy in recent years. With the increasing GDP, India's R&D budget took a parallel upsurge from mere Rs. 5000 crore in 1995-96 to Rs. 1, 23,847.71 crore in 2018-19. However, its engagement in south asia raises more skepticism and denouncement. In this context, the present paper intended to analyse the evolution, nature and extent of science diplomacy in South Asia. Further, the paper aims to highlight India's science diplomacy programme in South Asia given its unique political settings and geostrategic implication in shaping South Asian cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban flooding is a frequent disaster in cities. With the increasing imperviousness caused by rapid urbanization and the rising frequency and severity of extreme events caused by climate change, the hydrological status of the urban area has changed, resulting in urban floods. This study aims to identify trends and gaps and highlight potential research prospects in the field of urban flooding in South Asia. Based on an extensive literature review, this paper reviewed urban flood hazard assessment methods using hydraulic/hydrological models and urban flood management practices in South Asia. With the advancement of technology and high-resolution topographic data, hydrologic/hydraulic models such as HEC-RAS/HMS, MIKE, SWMM, etc., are increasingly used for urban flood hazard assessment. Urban flood management practices vary among countries based on existing technologies and infrastructures. In order to control urban flooding, both conventional physical structures, including drainage and embankments, as well as new innovative techniques, such as low-impact development, are implemented. Non-structural flood mitigation measures, such as improved flood warning systems, have been developed and implemented in a few cities. The major challenge in using process-based hydraulic models was the lack of high-resolution DEM and short-duration rainfall data in the region, significantly affecting the model's simulation results and the implementation of flood management measures. Risk-informed management must be implemented immediately to reduce the adverse effects of climate change and unplanned urbanization on urban flooding. Therefore, it is crucial to encourage emergency managers and local planning authorities to consider a nature-based solution in an integrated urban planning approach to enhances urban flood resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is an invisible enemy that poses challenges to humanity, shrinking space and making the Earth uninhabitable, and South Asia is the region worst affected by it. With its hydra-headed consequences, such as rising sea levels, intensifying temperatures, erratic rains, droughts, heatwaves, floods, and extreme weather events, it has unleashed a war on the populace. Climate change has unlocked a Pandora's Box of climateinduced migration around the world, but migration in South Asia is particularly intense. This article deconstructs the phenomenon of migration driven by climate change and strives to analyse the pace of climate-induced migration in South Asian states and its implications for states' overall socio-economic performance. Moreover, it aims to highlight the adaptation and mitigation strategies of the affected states to overcome the repercussions and challenges to achieve the desired results. Last but not least, this paper examines how the South Asian nations can work together effectively to combat climate change through regional coordination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's economy has made significant strides in the past three decades. As a direct result of China's "one belt, one road" (OBOR) initiative, the country's rate of industrialization and urbanization is currently the fastest in the entire world. This rapid development is largely dependent on the enormous amounts of energy currently being consumed and forms the foundation of the world's high levels of carbon emissions. It is generally agreed that the production of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, is the primary contributor to the current state of climate change. In this paper, a CO2 emission prediction model based on Bi-LSTM is constructed. In order to conduct empirical tests on the model, this study uses data from South Asian countries and China from 2001 to 2020. China's CO2 emissions from 2022 to 2030 were predicted along with those of other countries in order to study the combined effects of the scientific and technological progress, industrial structures, and energy structure factors affecting CO2 emissions. When compared with the LSTM and GRU methods, the Bi-LSTM model's results produced lower MAE, MSE, and MAPE values, indicating that it performs better. According to the findings, carbon emissions represent a significant problem that will become much worse in the future due to China and India's high emissions, particularly in the next 10 years, if the government does not implement policies that help reduce those emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main theme of this paper is to investigate the socio-economic impacts of climate change and adaptation; by comparing the losses with and without land reallocation for major staple foods as a key strategy of climate change adaptation in the farming system. In doing so, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal has been developed, incorporating the allocation of land for several agricultural crops, including the major staple foods, with specification of a nested set of constant elasticity of transformation (CET) functional forms. The set of land transformation elasticities facilitates switching from one crop to another; based on their agronomic characteristics and degree of climate change impacts. Using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data and Living Standard Survey (LSS) data, a social accounting matrix (SAM) for Nepal is developed and used to simulate three scenarios of climate change and land reallocation. The simulation results in the long run depict farmers as more likely to use land for crops that are comparatively less impacted by climate change, such as paddy. The results further show that land reallocation reduces the income inequality and poverty among rural and urban households by significantly controlling the income losses of marginal farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change adversities have particularly sparked the urgency in mitigating carbon dioxide emissions across the world. Against this backdrop, the paper attempts to investigate the validity of the carbon dioxide emission-induced Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis controlling for the impacts of export quality on the economic growth-carbon dioxide emission nexus in the context of selected South Asian economies: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Using annual data from 1972 to 2014, the results from the panel data econometric analyses provide statistical validity to the EKC hypothesis while the country-specific results depict heterogeneity of the findings in this regard. The EKC hypothesis is validated only for Bangladesh and India while in the context of Pakistan the economic growth-carbon dioxide emission nexus portrays a U-shaped association. In contrast, economic growth is found to monotonically decrease carbon dioxide emissions in Sri Lanka and Nepal. Besides, the results from both the panel and time-series analyses suggest that improvement in export quality lead to lower levels of carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, the statistical significance of the interaction term between economic growth and export quality implies that the overall impacts of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions are conditional on the quality of the exports. Thus, enhancing the quality of the export products is pertinent with respect to ensuring environmental sustainability across South Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a serious and complex crisis that impacts humankind in different ways. It affects the availability of water resources, especially in the tropical regions of South Asia to a greater extent. However, the impact of climate change on water resources in Sri Lanka has been the least explored. Noteworthy, this is the first study in Sri Lanka that attempts to evaluate the impact of climate change in streamflow in a watershed located in the southern coastal belt of the island. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the climate change impact on streamflow of the Upper Nilwala River Basin (UNRB), Sri Lanka. In this study, the bias-corrected rainfall data from three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were fed into the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model to obtain future streamflow. Bias correction of future rainfall data in the Nilwala River Basin (NRB) was conducted using the Linear Scaling Method (LSM). Future precipitation was projected under three timelines: 2020s (2021–2047), 2050s (2048–2073), and 2080s (2074–2099) and was compared against the baseline period from 1980 to 2020. The ensemble mean annual precipitation in the NRB is expected to rise by 3.63%, 16.49%, and 12.82% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, and 4.26%, 8.94%, and 18.04% under RCP 8.5 emission scenario during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The future annual streamflow of the UNRB is projected to increase by 59.30% and 65.79% under the ensemble RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, when compared to the baseline scenario. In addition, the seasonal flows are also expected to increase for both RCPs for all seasons with an exception during the southwest monsoon season in the 2015–2042 period under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In general, the results of the present study demonstrate that climate and streamflow of the NRB are expected to experience changes when compared to current climatic conditions. The results of the present study will be of major importance for river basin planners and government agencies to develop sustainable water management strategies and adaptation options to offset the negative impacts of future changes in climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Expert technical and economic rationalities overlook political aspects of sustainability. • Local experiences reveal structures and processes that shape inequitable outcomes. • Sustainable developmentality creates a triple-bind for rural mountain residents. • The triple-bind contributes to large numbers migrating from mountain dwellings. • Mountain migration and land abandonment is a political not an inevitable process. Sustainability challenges persist in the central Indian Himalayas (CIH) despite an array of solutions proffered by external experts. This paper interrogates the 'sustainability gaze' of external experts – which reflects attempts to reconcile neoliberal economic growth with environmental conservation within the logics of technical and biophysical rationalities - by exploring local experiences of rapid and uncertain social and environmental change. Three strands of policy and practice shape the gaze: (i) natural hazard mitigation for climate change adaptation; (ii) reducing social vulnerability through pro-poor development; and (iii) increasing resilience through environmental management and conservation. Results challenge narratives that overpopulation causes environmental degradation and changing patterns of migration are a natural process of modernisation in the CIH. Alternative local narratives highlight haphazard and inequitable economic growth, lack of mountain planning and disaster management, inadequate social welfare programmes, and monkey relocation policies as the major sustainability challenges. The paper discusses how the gaze produces 'sustainable developmentality' - a depoliticising process that cultivates multiple and conflicting mountain subjectivities, namely: (i) active community members responsible for mitigating natural hazards, (ii) productive farmers and flexible waged labourers, and (iii) custodians of the environment. This creates a triple-bind for smallholders which has forced huge numbers to migrate from their mountain dwellings with unsustainable outcomes. Exploring local perspectives re-politicises the debate, exposing the contradictions and tensions of the gaze and the broader systemic issues of power and inequity the gaze overlooks. Such insights are crucial for rendering development policies more relevant to mountain residents of the CIH and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have witnessed a rapid increase in scholarship on adaptation to climate change. Peer-reviewed literature, governmental communiqués and reports are increasingly reporting formulated and implemented climate change adaptation policies, strategies and plans of action. A large part of this literature describes general policy strategies, while there is limited published work on adaptation interventions at the local scale. The generality of adaptation is not only limited to strategies but also in terms of coverage of regions believed to be highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Among such climate change 'hotspots' where understanding on adaptation is limited are river deltas. Herein, this paper synthesizes selected literature on adaptation policy and practice in river deltas located in Africa and South Asia. A systematic review methodology was used to scan online knowledge portals for published papers and also unpublished government documents. The review characterizes the state of adaptation policy in African and South Asian deltas and identifies future research priorities targeting climate change adaptation in large delta regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of transboundary river management is highly pertinent to South Asia with conflicts emerging in water resource management and utilization which indeed affect the beneficial uses of downstream states. The paper considers the situation of the Teesta river basin to assess the water unavailability driven agricultural shock, cost of loss and damage of the downstream region, identify the mutual benefits of water collaboration, and suggest potential adaptation options for water unavailability. The study found during 1995–2010, the annual mean discharge in the upper Teesta floodplain was 707 cumec, where the downstream discharge was 140 cumec and during 2005–2010 the downstream region received less than 8% of the mean annual discharge which may be attributed to reduced flow from the upstream region due to the intense operation of dams and barrage. Consequently, the water reliant 5,000 villages and 12 sub‐districts of lower Teesta basin of Bangladesh were found to be experiencing immense hydro‐socioeconomic impairment and food insecurity. The study estimates that in the Rangpur region, total loss and damage of Boro rice production is 15,08,020 metric tons during 2006–2015, and in the Nilphamri total loss and damage is estimated 9,83,054 metric tons during the same period. Here, the total computed economic loss for both the region is $564 million from 2006–15 FY, which remarkably trims down the overall agricultural production and socio‐economic situation in the lower Teesta region of Bangladesh and fuel the hydro‐economic and political tension between the close riparian. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A declining trend in Indian summer monsoon precipitation (ISMP) in the latter half of the 20th century is a scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issue. Heavy aerosol loading over India is one of the key factors in modulating the ISMP. Using the state-of-the-state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, ECHAM6-HAMMOZ, the impacts of South Asian anthropogenic sulfate aerosols on the Indian summer monsoon precipitation were investigated against: (1) 2010 La Niña (excess monsoon), (2) 2015 El Niño (deficit monsoon) in comparison to (3) normal monsoon 2016. Sensitivity simulations were designed with 48% enhancement in South Asian SO 2 emissions based on a trend estimated from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite observations during 2006–2017. The model simulations showed that sulfate aerosols reduce ISMP by 27.5%–43.3 %, while simulations without sulfate loading enhanced ISMP by 23% in 2010 La Niña and reduction by 35% in 2015 El Niño. This paper reports that sulfate aerosols loading over India reduce precipitation by aerosol-induced direct and indirect effects by inducing atmospheric cooling, weakening in the convection, and reduction in moisture transport to Indian landmass. This paper emphasizes the necessity of alternate use of energy to reduce sulfate aerosol emissions to solve water issues in South Asia. [Display omitted] • Sulfate emission reduces Indian summer monsoon precipitation through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. • Over 27% of the summer monsoon rainfall deficit in a normal year are linked to Asian anthropogenic sulfate emissions. • Sulfate-induced rainfall reduction is the maximum for La Niña year. • SO 2 loading increases atmospheric stability and weakens moisture transport to India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the early Holocene onward, the Indian Subcontinent has accommodated a range of diverse human cultures and associated ecological adaptations and lifestyles. Around 10 kyrs ago, the Subcontinent has witnessed the development of later Mesolithic hunter-gatherers and their subsequent regional transitions to pastoralist (Neolithic) and agricultural (Chalcolithic) lifeways. The Holocene climate records reveal discrepancies in the timing and duration of climatic events, which can be attributed to a vast geographic isolation, the influence of height, elevation, and local climatic conditions. These changing climatic patterns including the development of a geographically variable monsoon directly impacted these various cultures including the Harappans and their contemporaries as well as younger Historical and Medieval empires across India, at various levels. In some regions, environmental changes led to uneven cultural transitions, geographic migrations, and the development of regionally-distinct material cultures along with establishment of sedentary life-ways. This paper attempts to present a review broadly correlating general climatic patterns throughout the Holocene period of India with regional cultural dynamics. All geomorphic-climatic zones of the Subcontinent showed strong inter-proxy coherence between 9 and 5 kyrs in response to increased precipitation. After this warming period ends, we see a moderate dry period as a result of a weakening monsoon and an overall tendency toward aridity throughout all zones (after 4 kyrs). The temporal variation of human habitation and respective adaptive responses suggest broad linkages to the varying climatic and physiographic features at a regional scale. Learning how this shaped human eco-dynamics in the past can help us expand our understanding of human history and implement lessons for the present as well as the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, global warming is analysed with specific reftrence to South Asia, the world 's most densely populated zone. The first part of the paper elaborates existing conditions impacted by climate change, considering the diverse landscape and vulnerabilities inhabitants of the subcontinent face. Next, the speedily expanding population and the threats water scarcity is causing are discussed. With increasing temperatures, glacial melt is also a graue concern, the impact melting glaciers are making on the region is also elaborated. Yhe most significant fallout of the entire scenario is climate migrants, such mass movements are note a norm in the world's most densely populated zone; hence such migrations are highlighted along with correlating issues. There is also an analysis of whether the destruction being caused by climate change is permanent or reversible. Undoubtedly global warming is taking its toll, and measures beyond creating awareness and making pledges need to be speedily executed so that occurring climatic variations can be reversed before it really is too late. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture in South Asia is vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, adaptation measures are required to sustain agricultural productivity, to reduce vulnerability, and to enhance the resilience of the agricultural system to climate change. There are many adaptation practices in the production systems that have been proposed and tested for minimizing the effects of climate change. Some socioeconomic and political setup contributes to adaptation, while others may inhibit it. This paper presents a systematic review of the impacts of climate change on crop production and also the major options in the agricultural sector that are available for adaptation to climate change. One of the key conclusions is that agricultural practices that help climate change adaptation in agriculture are available, while the institutional setup to implement and disseminate those technical solutions is yet to be strengthened. Thus, it is important to examine how to bring the required institutional change, generate fund to invest on these changes, and design dynamic policies for long-term climate change adaptation in agriculture rather than a mere focus on agricultural technology. This is one of the areas where South Asian climate policies require reconsidering to avoid possible maladaptation in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper provides an in-depth analysis of a significant global challenge the international organizations are faced within the 21st century - climate change. Climate change has detrimental effects on international security and stability. In the past decades, humanity has faced emerging natural occurrences such as the increase in the World Ocean level, higher frequency of monsoon rainfalls, impaired conditions of the ecosystems in the rain forests. The massive population increase in Africa and South Asia also points to the fact that natural resources are not infinite, and their spare use becomes a priority of worldwide importance. Managing climate change is a global problem, the solution of which mandates the unified efforts of the entire international community. And this is where climate diplomacy comes at play. The efforts of climate diplomacy need to be focused on two primary directions. The first priority is limiting global warming under 2°C compared to the pre-industrial levels and taking actions to reduce the harmful emissions of greenhouse gases. The second priority is about taking adequate measures to handle climate change consequences, amongst which the so-called climate migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews recent advances regarding land–atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its climatic impacts. Thermal forcing over the TP interacts strongly with that over the Iranian Plateau, forming a coupled heating system that elevates the tropopause, generates a monsoonal meridional circulation over South Asia and creates conditions of large-scale ascent favorable for Asian summer monsoon development. TP heating leads to intensification and westward extension (northward movement) of the South Asian High (Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone), and exerts strong impacts on upstream climate variations from North Atlantic to West Asia. It also affects oceanic circulation and buoyancy fields via atmospheric stationary wave trains and air–sea interaction processes, contributing to formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The TP thermal state and atmospheric–oceanic conditions are highly interactive and Asian summer monsoon variability is controlled synergistically by internal TP variability and external forcing factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important to estimate a high-resolution spatiotemporal distribution of temperature rise under climate change for effective adaptation and mitigation planning. This paper studies the threshold crossing time (TCT) for eight Indian warming targets (IWTs) between 1.5 and 5 °C based on regional climate models (RCMs) participating in The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)—South Asia project. To evaluate the performance of CORDEX experiments in simulating the near-surface mean temperature, the model performance index (MPI) is used which represents that the CanESM experiment performs best for simulating Tmean over India. All India average Tmean projected by the multi-model ensemble (MME) represents that 1.5 °C TCT is about 2033 ± 3 and 2028 ± 3 in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. During the twenty-first century, Indian subcontinent can experience five IWTs (1.5–3.5 °C) under RCP4.5 and all eight under scenario RCP8.5. The fastest warming region in India is the western Himalayan region (North India) and north-west region (Indian Thar Desert). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Analyzes South Asia's energy trilemma balancing energy access, security and sustainability. • Focuses on four major regional countries: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. • Identifies major challenges as lack of energy access, unreliable gird, and unaffordable prices. • Explores the prospects of renewable energy as the key toward a sustainable energy transition. • Presents stakeholder perspectives on crucial dynamics of energy transition. To address the faced challenges – i.e. rapidly growing energy needs, depleting fossil fuel reserves, surging energy prices, risks to security of supplies, and climate change – the World is targeting a sustainable energy transition. This energy transition is primarily propelled by a global decarbonization drive. South Asia, a developing region housing over 23% of the global population, faces the additional challenge of serious energy deprivation. The subject of energy transition has not been explored in the South Asian context in terms of drivers, challenges, and prospects. This paper investigates the prospects of sustainable energy transition in South Asia in terms of resources, consumption trends, and challenges encountered by countries in the region, particularly India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. It also examines the sustainable and renewable energy options for the region. An original stakeholder survey provides salient behavioral insights into awareness, attitudes and opinions shaping societal response to energy transition. The findings of the study highlight the serious energy security issues faced by the region in terms of lack of access, inconsistent supplies, unreliable grids, and high energy prices. Renewables like solar energy, wind power, and hydropower have the potential to propel regional countries to energy and environmental sustainability. "Lack of consistent policies and regulations", "lack of political will" and "lack of investment" are found to be the three most important challenges to the energy transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South Asian region has faced multiple challenges in the last few decades. This region is susceptible to climate change due to the presence of both drought-prone and coastal areas. It also faces the problem of increasing food-insecurity due to the recent events of crop failure consequent to natural calamities. This study examines the nexus between agricultural production and food security amidst climate change for the South Asian nations from 2000 to 2019. From the empirical investigation, using Driscoll-Kraay and Panel-Corrected Standard Error estimators, we get robust results in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity. The simultaneous equation model using 3SLS is also used for the robustness check, considering the probable endogeneity issue in the model. The findings of the study reveal that agricultural production, fertilizer consumption, and land under cereal production play a substantial and positive role in determining food security in the South Asian nations. Furthermore, the varying rainfall patterns coupled with rising temperature, as well as the increasing level of CO2 emissions are found to impede food security in these nations. Additionally, non-climatic factors related to agriculture and land-use are also found to induce CO2 emissions, which is a major cause of climate change. Therefore, from a policy perspective, this study suggests that to ensure long-term food security in the South Asian nations, the government should implement effective policy measures, which include the decarbonization of the agricultural sector by encouraging the use of renewable energy sources and promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

40% of global population, who resides in Asian monsoon region is at high risk from extreme hot summer events, which is expected to increase by 25%/30 years under RCP8.5 scenario. Using Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large-ensemble simulations we assess the relative contribution of external forcings and internal variability on hot extremes over South and East Asia. Climate change projects surface mean temperature to reach 2.0 °C and 5.0 °C by ~2050 and ~2100, respectively, making the region uninhabitable under exposed conditions. Internal variability will partly obscure anthropogenic warming over South and Southeast Asia; however, East Asia will experience a 4–6 fold rise in record breaking hot events in later periods. Nevertheless, beyond 2.35 °C warming internal variability will decrease over South Asia due to weaker albedo feedback on unforced internal variability. Our results contradict the existing hypothesis that warming will increase volatility in weather patterns everywhere, particularly the Asian monsoon regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Societal Impact Statement: Rice wild relatives (RWR) provide valuable genetic resources for modern rice breeding, yet knowledge gaps constrain their conservation and further utilization. To address these gaps, the potential distributions of 22 RWR taxa were modeled, and their conservation statuses were assessed. Most taxa were identified as medium priority for further conservation. Further ex‐situ collecting hotspots are in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, West Africa, and tropical Americas, while habitat protection lies in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, and West Africa. Climate change may shift equatorial habitats to higher latitudes and mountain habitats to higher altitudes. Summary: Rice wild relatives (RWR) provide valuable genetic resources for modern rice breeding. However, knowledge gaps on their geographic distributions and conservation status constrain their conservation and further utilization.To fill these critical gaps, we modeled the potential distributions of 22 RWR taxa under current climate scenarios, assessed their conservation status, both ex situ (in genebanks or botanical gardens) and in situ (in protected areas), and examined changes in taxa richness of RWR in predicted areas under future climate scenarios.The RWR were primarily distributed in tropical Asia to tropical Australia, tropical Africa, and South and Central America. We identified 4 out of 22 taxa as high priority (HP) for further conservation action and 18 taxa as medium priority (MP).Hotspots requiring further collecting for ex situ conservation are concentrated in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, West Africa, and tropical Americas. Meanwhile, habitat protection should be enhanced in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, and West Africa. Under future climate change, suitable habitats near the equator are expected to shift toward higher latitudes and some in lower‐latitude basins may become unsuitable due to excessive heat, resulting in decreased taxa richness in these areas. Additionally, suitable habitats in high mountain areas may shift to higher altitudes, potentially augmenting taxa richness in the highlands. Our findings provide vital insights to guide future rescue conservation efforts for RWR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uzma Aslam Khan's latest novel The Miraculous True History of Nomi Ali (2019), presents an extraordinary tale of human brutality, human suffering, and environmental degradation, exploring the deep-rooted and multi-layered connections between colonialism and neo- colonialism. The novel whilst still remaining grounded in the geography, culture, politics and environmental specifications of the region, carries out a historical investigation of the British and Japanese colonial control of Andaman Island to draw our attention to devastating impacts of colonialism and neo-colonial capitalist development models on the environment within contemporary postcolonial societies (e.g., South Asia). Thus, Khan builds up a highly necessary alliance between postcolonialism and ecoriticism, tracing the roots of environmental degradation within both the colonial and neo-colonial oppressive regimes that dominate humans as species- who, indeed, cannot be separated from their links with the trillions of other life forms within the larger biosphere. It is with this in mind that the text navigates the environmental problems that are also major concerns in the postcolonial societies, including: Anthropocene, climate change, humans' and other species' migration and genocide, the erasure of indigenous culture, and the exploitation of natural resources-all of which are rooted in the oppressive regimes of the colonisation of the Andaman Islands. Via my socioecological critique, which aims to explore the novel in the context of it as a powerful resistance text challenging anthropocentrism (which has been exercised in the form of imperial control of the Andaman islands, whereby colonial powers dematerialize nature, displace indigenous inhabitants, and, thus, disrupt the harmony of the biosphere), I attempt to foreground the socioecological potential of the novel. Furthermore, I also aim to analyse the disturbances within the characters' lives-not to mention the degradation of the environment of their land-in order to highlight our main criticism of imperialism, colonisation, and their 'legacies' of environmental hazards within the region. Indeed, The Miraculous True History of Nomi Ali, my paper argues, opposes the paradigms of 'disassociated thinking' and supports an integrated vision of the world, thus forming a meaningful contribution to the contemporary theories of climate change and the Anthropocene, as well as to related environmental problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Asian air pollutants exert substantial effect on the climate and environment change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This paper investigates the trans-boundary transport of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 from South Asia to the TP via WRF-Chem sensitive analysis. It is found that PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 over South Asia are mainly sourced from anthropogenic sources. South Asian emissions contribute up to 54% of PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP in the pre-monsoon season. For O 3 , the highest contribution of 18.13% is in the monsoon season, while the lowest contribution of 8.67% is in the winter season. To evaluate the respective contributions of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions in South Asia to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP, anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions in South Asia are considered separately. The results show that the largest percentage contribution of PM 10 (PM 2.5) from South Asian anthropogenic emissions to PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP with value of 35.86% (37.77%) occurs in winter, while the lowest percentage contribution of 16.52% (16.77%) appears in the monsoon season. For O 3 , the largest contribution of 17.74% from South Asian anthropogenic emissions appears in the monsoon season, whereas the lowest contribution of 8.59% occurs in winter. Compared to the anthropogenic emissions, the biomass burning emissions in South Asia have a relative less contribution to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP. The largest contribution of PM 10 (PM 2.5) from South Asian biomass burning emissions to PM 10 (PM 2.5) in the TP is 20.04% (18.37%) in the pre-monsoon season. Conversely, the lowest contribution of 0.58% (0.53) appears in the monsoon season. O 3 from South Asian biomass burning emissions contributes <1% to O 3 in the TP in each season, implying that the biomass burning emissions in South Asia have little effect on O 3 in the TP. This study is of great significance to the ecological environment protection for the TP. • Contributions of South Asian emissions to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP are quantified. • Anthropogenic emissions in South Asia have a larger contribution to PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and O 3 in the TP. • O 3 from South Asian biomass burning emissions contributes <1% to O 3 in the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health. • Frequency of hot-dry events and hot-humidity events will increase and decrease, respectively, in the future. • There are abrupt points and periodicity in the future time series of compound temperature and precipitation extremes. • Asia is projected to have the greatest exposure and climate change contributes the most to exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses and assesses how existing policies and approaches in South Asia consider long-term climate change adaptation. Presently, it is unclear what approaches are used in the existing policies to cope with the future climatic changes. Our research framework consists of two components. First, we identify and define key characteristics of adaptation policy approaches based on a review of scientific journal articles. The key characteristics identified are institutional flexibility, adaptive nature, scalability and reflexivity. Second, we analyse the presence of these characteristics in the climate change adaptation policies of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. Our findings show that the four South Asian countries contribute to only 8% of the total journal articles on adaptation policy, with least papers representing Pakistan and Nepal. Reviewing the adaptation policies, we find that except for the Climate Change Policy of Nepal, none of the policies discusses transboundary scale adaptation approaches. The identified adaptation policies lack focus on shared transboundary resources between the countries, and instead focus at national or sub-national scale. This is reflected by relatively low scores for the scalability characteristic. All the countries show high scores for institutional flexibility, suggesting that changing roles and responsibilities between government agencies for adaptation planning and implementation is accepted in the four countries. We conclude that to prevent a loss of flexibility and to promote scalability of shared transboundary resources, policy approaches such as anticipatory governance, robust decision-making, and adaptation pathways can be useful for long-term climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable attribution of Asian summer monsoon variations to aerosol forcing is critical to reducing uncertainties in future projections of regional water availability, which is of utmost importance for risk management and adaptation planning in this densely populated region. Yet, simulating the monsoon remains a challenge for climate models that suffer from long-standing biases, undermining their reliability in attributing anthropogenically forced changes. We analyze a suite of climate model experiments to identify a link between model biases and monsoon responses to Asian aerosols and associated physical mechanisms, including the role of large-scale circulation changes. The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model's ability to simulate the spatio-temporal variability in the climatological monsoon winds, clouds, and precipitation across Asia, which modulates the magnitude and efficacy of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, an important component of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South Asia and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response. We found a striking contrast between the early- and late-summer aerosol-driven changes ascribable to opposite signs and seasonal evolution of the biases in the two regions. A realistic simulation of the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is crucial to realize the full extent of the aerosol impact over Asia. These findings provide important implications for better understanding and constraining the diversity and inconsistencies of model responses to aerosol changes over Asia in historical simulations and future projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transboundary water governance is highly complex. It is often plagued by tense relations, technocratic water management and from being infrastructure orientated. In particular, the governance of transboundary rivers in the South and Southeast Asian region is likely to become increasingly complex due to a changing geopolitical environment. This makes it difficult to assess whether it will follow a similar trajectory as countries in the global North, where the uncertainty and complexities involved in water management are recognized and basin wide cooperation is often the norm, or forge a different path. An expert survey was conducted to identify the most significant factors influencing transboundary water governance in South and Southeast Asia and their implications for the future to extrapolate the trajectory of hydropolitics for the region. It was found that China is becoming increasingly influential in the governance of transboundary water in the region, which may come to represent a new water management regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is high confidence that global warming intensifies all components of the global water cycle. This work investigates the possible effects of global warming on river flows worldwide in the coming decades. We conducted 18 global hydrological simulations to assess how river flows are projected to change in the near future (2015–2050) compared to the recent past (1950–2014). The simulations are forced by runoff from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs), which assume a high-emission scenario for the projections. The assessment includes estimating the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio and the time of emergence (ToE) of all the rivers in the world. Consistently with the water cycle intensification, the hydrological simulations project a clear positive global river discharge trend from ∼2000 that emerges beyond the levels of natural variability and becomes "unfamiliar" by 2017 and "unusual" by 2033. Simulations agree that the climate change signal is dominated by strong increases in the flows of rivers originating in central Africa and South Asia and those discharging into the Arctic Ocean, partially compensated for by the reduced flow projected for Patagonian rivers. The potential implications of such changes may include more frequent floods in central African and South Asian rivers, driven by the projected magnification of the annual cycles with unprecedented peaks, a freshening of the Arctic Ocean from extra freshwater release, and limited water availability in Patagonia given the projected drier conditions of its rivers. This underscores the critical need for a paradigm shift in prioritizing water-related concerns amidst the challenges of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the impact of climate change on the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia, focusing on India, China, and Bangladesh, which share the Brahmaputra River basin. The changing climate significantly affects these nations, with the political landscape of South Asia playing a crucial role in shaping regional dynamics. The Brahmaputra River basin is vulnerable to climate-induced challenges, such as altered river flow, increased flooding, and changes in sediment transport, which impact water resources and infrastructural development, influencing the social and economic well-being of the populations in these countries. Utilizing a multidisciplinary approach, the study combines climate models, hydrological data analysis, and geopolitical assessments to evaluate the effects of climate change on the Brahmaputra River basin and its implications for regional cooperation and conflict. The findings reveal that climate change exacerbates existing waterrelated challenges, leading to heightened flood risks, disrupted sediment transport, and strained water resources, threatening socio-economic stability. The research underscores the urgent need for collaborative strategies to address these impacts, emphasizing the importance of integrated water resource management to mitigate geopolitical tensions and promote regional stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dust loading in West and South Asia has been a major environmental issue due to its negative effects on air quality, food security, energy supply and public health, as well as on regional and global weather and climate. Yet a robust understanding of its recent changes and future projection remains unclear. On the basis of several high-quality remote sensing products, we detect a consistently decreasing trend of dust loading in West and South Asia over the last two decades. In contrast to previous studies emphasizing the role of local land use changes, here, we attribute the regional dust decline to the continuous intensification of Arctic amplification driven by anthropogenic global warming. Arctic amplification results in anomalous mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, particularly a deepened trough stretching from West Siberia to Northeast India, which inhibits both dust emissions and their downstream transports. Large ensemble climate model simulations further support the dominant role of greenhouse gases induced Arctic amplification in modulating dust loading over West and South Asia. Future projections under different emission scenarios imply potential adverse effects of carbon neutrality in leading to higher regional dust loading and thus highlight the importance of stronger anti-desertification counter-actions such as reforestation and irrigation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study focuses on four river basins, Gandaki, Indus, Upper Ganga and Teesta, in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region in South Asia. The region is considered one of the more environmentally vulnerable areas in the world due to recurrent natural hazards that can be exacerbated by future climate change. The dependence of the population on natural resources based livelihoods makes the region particularly vulnerable to adverse climate change impacts. Labour migration can help household adaptation, particularly when it incurs significant cash investment. The paper analyses the determinants of household adaptation, including migration, in three sectors, namely, agriculture, livestock, and water. It shows that household adaptation to the negative effects of climate change was very poor in the region, with less than a third of the households undertaking adaptation measures. While labour migration showed a positive influence on household adaptation, it was statistically significant only in agriculture. Nevertheless, migration influenced household adaptation indirectly through livelihood diversification, access to services provide of external stakeholders, and changes in household composition. The study identified location, access to climate information, and services provided by external stakeholders as important factors in household adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past human populations are known to have managed crops in a range of ways. Various methods can be used, singly or in conjunction, to reconstruct these strategies, a process which lends itself to the exploration of socio-economic and political themes. This paper endeavours to unpack the concept of 'multi-cropping' by considering diversity and variation in the cropping practices of the populations of South Asia's Indus Civilisation. It argues that nuanced interpretations of the evidence provided by the combinations of crop seeds and weeds present in specific contexts and phases of occupation can reveal much about Indus cropping strategies, which in turn enables consideration of issues related to adaptation, intensification and resilience in the face of changing social, political, economic and environmental climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate crisis disproportionately impacts women and girls all over the world. To understand what the priorities in terms of policy are, an examination is conducted on the impacts taking place in South Asia (focusing on the countries of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan), an area of the globe that is highly vulnerable to climate change and is characterized by having strong patriarchal values. Gender stereotypes and roles in the region heighten women and girls’ vulnerability to climate impacts, both in general and in situations of crisis resulting from extreme weather events. Deepening the understanding of the climate crisis’ impact on gender in South Asia, a region at the frontline of these eects, can assist in reaching a baseline understanding of the challenge from a global perspective. Methodologically, we reviewed an extensive body of literature, both specialty books and scientific articles, recent institutional reports as well as news or journalistic reports from reliable international press. In this research, the argument is made that today, climate action and urban development cannot be considered separately from women’s rights. Extensive scientific data and research support the integration of a gender perspective in urban adaptation standard practices, and priorities in terms of policy to safeguard women and girls are identified accordingly. The allocation of half of climate funds, including those of loss and damage, directly to women or women-led organizations is identified as being particularly relevant. Bold and ambitious policymaking is urgently needed to build capacity to face the multiple crises unfolding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather, trade restrictions, rising oil prices, a lack of financial support for farmers, and other factors have contributed to the destabilization of South Asian food security. The purpose of this study is to determine the long-run and short-run relationships between climate change, agricultural credit, renewable energy, and food security for a sample of South Asian countries between 1990 and 2021. The Dynamic Common Correlated technique is utilized for empirical analysis since it directly addresses the issue of cross-sectional dependency while delivering accurate cointegration findings. The study's empirical findings show that climate change reduces food availability and increases the incidence of food insecurity in South Asia. In contrast, the use of renewable energy sources has a positive effect on food security in the short-run but not in the long-run, while the availability of credit to farmers has a positive effect on food security. Findings suggest that South Asian countries may reduce climate change's negative effect on food security by investing in climate services, climate-resilient infrastructure, growing drought-resistant crops, using supplemental reinforced agricultural practices, and improving their weather forecasting capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar irrigation pumps (SIPs) are emerging as a popular technology to address water, energy, and climate change challenges in South Asia while enhancing livelihoods and food security. SIPs are deemed to be a women-friendly renewable energy technology (RET) due to their design, operating system, and safety. While the gender dimensions of natural resources are well documented, the extent to which the water, energy, and food (WEF) policies--including policies to promote SIP technologies in the countries of South Asia--conceptualize and operationalize gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) is not well understood. Therefore, in this study, we reviewed 39 WEF sectoral policies of Bangladesh and Nepal by adopting a gender-transformative analysis approach to rank the policies on a continuum ranging from a scale of 0-3 (denoting gender-unaware, gender-aware, gender-responsive, and gendertransformative). We found that the governments in both countries commit to gender equality and women's advancement in their WEF sector policies, institutions, and decision-making by ensuring gender and justice principles in their constitutions and national development frameworks. However, these higher-level aspirational principles are not always operationalized in the WEF sector policies. We found that the WEF policies are aware of the need to include GESI and social equity in sectoral programming, yet operational rules for their implementation often fail to challenge structural barriers. Such barriers hinder women and marginalized groups from participating in and benefiting from WEF policies, including the deployment of SIP technologies. This calls for a transformation not only in project implementation but also in the policymaking processes of WEF sectors in the South Asian region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following a sustainable development pathway designed to keep warming below 2 °C will benefit human health. We quantify premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and heat exposures for China, South Asia, and the United States using projections from multiple climate models under high-and low-emission scenarios. Projected changes in premature deaths are typically dominated by population aging, primarily reflecting increased longevity leading to greater sensitivity to environmental risks. Changes in PM2.5 exposure typically have small impacts on premature deaths under a high-emission scenario but provide substantial benefits under a low-emission scenario. PM2.5-attributable deaths increase in South Asia throughout the century under both scenarios but shift to decreases by late century in China, and US values decrease throughout the century. In contrast, heat exposure increases under both scenarios and combines with population aging to drive projected increases in deaths in all countries. Despite population aging, combined PM2.5-and heat-related deaths decrease under the low-emission scenario by ~2.4 million per year by midcentury and ~2.9 million by century's end, with ~3% and ~21% of these reductions from heat, respectively. Intermodel variations in exposure projections generally lead to uncertainties of <40% except for US and China heat impacts. Health benefits of low emissions are larger from reduced heat exposure than improved air quality by the late 2090s in the United States. In contrast, in South and East Asia, the PM2.5-related benefits are largest throughout the century, and their valuation exceeds the cost of decarbonization, especially in China, over the next 30 y. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the intricate history and pivotal junctures of the Pakistan-India water dispute, examining its environmental dimensions through the lenses of environmental security and the Theory of Environmentalism in International Relations (TEIR). Amid the shared vulnerability of Pakistan and India to climate change threats impacting their shared river waters, collaborative efforts become imperative. Projections indicate climate-related losses could cost South Asia $518 billion by 2050, a substantial portion of the region's GDP. This underscores the urgency for swift cooperation to foster sustainable water management in response to climate change. A descriptive and analytical research methodology has been used in which diplomatic discussions evaluates successes, failures, and ongoing peace-building efforts. The interplay of environmental security is emphasized in fostering sustainable transboundary water management for a resilient South Asia. Conclusively, proactive measures, innovative diplomacy, and sustainable water management are advocated for building a more resilient and interconnected South Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Asia is a region with a large and rising population, a high dependence on water intense industries, such as agriculture and a highly variable climate. In recent years, fears over the changing Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and rapidly retreating glaciers together with increasing demands for water resources have caused concern over the reliability of water resources and the potential impact on intensely irrigated crops in this region. Despite these concerns, there is a lack of climate simulations with a high enough resolution to capture the complex orography, and water resource analysis is limited by a lack of observations of the water cycle for the region. In this paper we present the first 25 km resolution regional climate projections of river flow for the South Asia region. Two global climate models (GCMs), which represent the ASM reasonably well are downscaled (1960–2100) using a regional climate model (RCM). In the absence of robust observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis is also downscaled providing a constrained estimate of the water balance for the region for comparison against the GCMs (1990–2006). The RCM river flow is routed using a river-routing model to allow analysis of present-day and future river flows through comparison with available river gauge observations. We examine how useful these simulations are for understanding potential changes in water resources for the South Asia region. In general the downscaled GCMs capture the seasonality of the river flows but overestimate the maximum river flows compared to the observations probably due to a positive rainfall bias and a lack of abstraction in the model. The simulations suggest an increasing trend in annual mean river flows for some of the river gauges in this analysis, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century. The future maximum river-flow rates still occur during the ASM period, with a magnitude in some cases, greater than the present-day natural variability. Increases in river flow could mean additional water resources for irrigation, the largest usage of water in this region, but has implications in terms of inundation risk. These projected increases could be more than countered by changes in demand due to depleted groundwater, increases in domestic use or expansion of water intense industries. Including missing hydrological processes in the model would make these projections more robust but could also change the sign of the projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almost all the South Asian countries are at present vulnerable to climate change and are affected with several climate related hazards, the frequency and intensity of which are likely to increase in future. Temperature and rainfall extremes may have severe impact on agriculture and health. In the light of these observations, this paper is aimed at investigating the changes in temperature and rainfall patterns over the period from 1901-2012 at four south Asian countries, namely India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives and the present status of agricultural and health in changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2), we investigate the changes in the characteristics of the summer monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) over India in a twenty-first century climate change simulation corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario. A slight weakening in monsoon circulation and an increase in mean summer monsoon precipitation over India are simulated in a warmer climate, consistent with several previous studies. The weakening of the monsoon circulation is associated with a pair of anticyclonic anomalies straddling the equator in the low level, weakening the cross-equatorial monsoonal flow from the southern hemisphere. These low-level circulation anomalies appear to be robust features in the equatorial Indian Ocean under climate change. An increase in moisture flux is also simulated over the Indian subcontinent. However, we find no significant change in the number of LPS or their spatial distribution under the RCP8.5 scenario. This is attributed to a small but non-significant decrease in the low-level meridional cyclonic shear in zonal winds. An increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation over India in a warmer world is simulated and is likely associated with an increase in moisture content. Our study shows that the fractional contribution of LPS to mean and extreme precipitation over India in a warmer world is likely unchanged, but the frequency and intensity of extreme events are larger. Because of the diversity in the results from single model studies on LPS characteristics in a warmer world, a future study that uses CMIP6 multi-model data would be valuable to assess the robustness and the uncertainty in changes in LPS activities under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate extremes, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall, can cause harvest failures, flooding, and droughts that ultimately threaten global food security, harming the region's economy. Fluctuations in streamflow indicate the sensitivity of streamflow responding to extreme precipitation events and other climatic variables (temperature extremes) that play a significant role in its generation. Pakistan is also considered one of the climate change hotspot regions in the world. The devastating impacts have often occurred in recent decades due to an excess or shortage of streamflow, majorly generated from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). To better understand climate extremes' impact on streamflow, this study examined climate extremes and streamflow (Q) changes for three decades: 1990–1999, 2000–2009, and 2010–2019. Observed streamflow and meteorological data from nine sub-catchments across all climatic zones of the UIB were analyzed using RGui (R language coding program) and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Climatic variables were estimated, including precipitation extremes, temperature extremes, and potential evapotranspiration. The Mann–Kendal test was applied to the climatic indices, revealing that precipitation increased during the last 30 years, while maximum and minimum temperatures during the summer months decreased in the Karakoram region from 1990 to 2019. The spatiotemporal trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) indicated a more increasing tendency from 1990 to 2019, compared to the consecutive wet days (CWD), which showed a decreasing trend. PLSR was applied to assess the relation between climatic variables (extreme P, T indices, and evapotranspiration). It was found that the dominant climatic variables controlling annual streamflow include the r95p (very wet days) and R25mm (heavy precipitation days), maximum precipitation event amount, CWD, PRCPTOT (annual total precipitation), and RX5 (maximum five-day precipitation). The TXn (Min Tmax) and Tmax mean (average maximum temperature) dominate streamflow variables. Moreover, the impact of evapotranspiration (ET) on variations in streamflow is more pronounced in arid catchments. Precipitation is the predominant factor influencing streamflow generation in the UIB, followed by temperature. From streamflow quantification, it was found that climate-driven annual streamflow decreased during 1999–2019 in comparison to 1990–1999, with an increase in a few catchments like Kalam, which increased by about 3.94% from 2000 to 2010 and 10.30% from 2010 to 2019, and Shigar, which increased by 0.48% from 2000 to 2009 and 37.37% from 2010 to 2019 concerning 1990–1999. These variations were due to changes in these climatic parameters. The PLSR approach enables the identification of linkages between climatic variables and streamflow variability and the prediction of climate-driven floods. This study contributes to an enhanced identification and hydroclimatological trends and projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy-water-land nexus represents a critical leverage future policies must draw upon to reduce trade-offs between sustainable development objectives. Yet, existing long-term planning tools do not provide the scope or level of integration across the nexus to unravel important development constraints. Moreover, existing tools and data are not always made openly available or are implemented across disparate modeling platforms that can be difficult to link directly with modern scientific computing tools and databases. In this paper, we present the Nexus Solutions Tool (NEST): a new open modeling platform that integrates multi-scale energy-water-land resource optimization with distributed hydrological modeling. The new approach provides insights into the vulnerability of water, energy and land resources to future socioeconomic and climatic change and how multi-sectoral policies, technological solutions and investments can improve the resilience and sustainability of transformation pathways while avoiding counterproductive interactions among sectors. NEST can be applied at different spatial and temporal resolutions, and is designed specifically to tap into the growing body of open access geospatial data available through national inventories and the earth system modeling community. A case study analysis of the Indus River Basin in South Asia demonstrates the capability of the model to capture important interlinkages across system transformation pathways towards the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, including the intersections between local and regional transboundary policies and incremental investment costs from rapidly increasing regional consumption projected over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a computable general equilibrium framework, this paper uses Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as case studies in examining the associated macroeconomic and sectoral impacts under two different climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that a nation's welfare deteriorates due to technical efficiency losses from climate change. Neither unilateral nor regional trade liberalization as a mitigating option improves welfare in these countries. For Sri Lanka, global full trade liberalization of all commodities is the optimum policy with some welfare gains. For Bangladesh on the other hand, regional partial agricultural trade liberalization is the optimum option with the least welfare deterioration. These results show that under climate change, countries within South Asia should respond differently to climate-induced crop productivity changes and no one optimum policy fits all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]