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Forests provide important ecosystem services (ESs), including climate change mitigation, local climate regulation, habitat for biodiversity, wood and non-wood products, energy, and recreation. Simultaneously, forests are increasingly affected by climate change and need to be adapted to future environmental conditions. Current legislation, including the European Union (EU) Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and national laws, aims to protect forest landscapes, enhance ESs, adapt forests to climate change, and leverage forest products for climate change mitigation and the bioeconomy. However, reconciling all these competing demands poses a tremendous task for policymakers, forest managers, conservation agencies, and other stakeholders, especially given the uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. Here, we used process-based ecosystem modeling and robust multi-criteria optimization to develop forest management portfolios that provide multiple ESs across a wide range of climate scenarios. We included constraints to strictly protect 10% of Europe's land area and to provide stable harvest levels under every climate scenario. The optimization showed only limited options to improve ES provision within these constraints. Consequently, management portfolios suffered from low diversity, which contradicts the goal of multi-functionality and exposes regions to significant risk due to a lack of risk diversification. Additionally, certain regions, especially those in the north, would need to prioritize timber provision to compensate for reduced harvests elsewhere. This conflicts with EU LULUCF targets for increased forest carbon sinks in all member states and prevents an equal distribution of strictly protected areas, introducing a bias as to which forest ecosystems are more protected than others. Thus, coordinated strategies at the European level are imperative to address these challenges effectively. We suggest that the implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and targets for forest carbon sinks require complementary measures to alleviate the conflicting demands on forests., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Although afforestation is a potential strategy to mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon, its potential biophysical effects on climate, such as regulating surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and energy balance, have not been fully incorporated into climate change mitigation strategies. This is partly due to the challenges associated with modeling the complex bidirectional interactions between vegetation and climate. In this study, we assess the impact of afforestation on low cloud cover using a regional climate model (RCM) and Earth observation data, applying a space‐for‐time approach to overcome limitations that may arise from comparing satellite and RCM results, such as different background climate conditions or different extents of land cover change. Our results show a consistent increase in low cloud cover in Europe due to afforestation in both datasets (3.71% and 3.56% on average, respectively), but the magnitude and direction of this effect depend on various factors, including location, seasonality, and forest type. These results suggest that afforestation can have important feedbacks on the climate system, and that its biophysical effects must be considered in climate change mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we emphasize the role of the modeling community in developing accurate and reliable approaches to assess the biophysical effects of land cover change on climate. Plain Language Summary: Although forests can help combat climate change by capturing carbon dioxide, we haven't fully considered the potential impact they can have on the climate in terms of biophysical factors such as surface reflectivity, evaporation, and energy balance. This is because it's challenging to accurately model the complex interactions between forests and climate. In this study, we used a regional climate model and Earth observation data to examine how forests affect the amount of low‐lying clouds. We used a method that compares satellite and model data to overcome limitations arising from different climate conditions and changes in land cover. Our findings consistently show that forests increase the coverage of low clouds in Europe. However, the specific effects depend on factors such as the location, season, and forest type. These results indicate that forests can have significant impacts on the climate system, and it is important to consider these effects when developing climate change strategies. We also emphasize the need for accurate modeling to better understand how changes in forest cover influence the climate. Key Points: Forests increase the amount of low clouds in EuropeForests impact climate beyond carbon sequestration [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The voluntary-based initiative Covenant of Mayors (CoM) focused on the active role of local authorities and increased its targets by 2016, through the Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plans (SECAPs) in terms of GHG reduction from 20% to 40% by 2030. In actual fact, the SECAP, intended as an urban planning tool, has the potential to improve the resilience of the EU Municipalities to climate-change, developing adaptation/mitigation actions and increasing the 'environmental awareness' of the involved actors. From a planning point of view, we affirm that the CoM started a new season of urban planning in Europe that covers the planning demand in the domain of implementing sustainable territorial development objectives. It unlocks the current ineffective planning systems and represents a remarkable practice promoting feasible framework projects for public and private investments. This paper proposes a methodological proposal to exploit this spread of SECAPs in the EU, including the systemic strategic planning approach in the process of SECAP design and ensuring an integrated vision of city development over the list of actions per sector required by the Global CoM procedures. Besides the methodological proposal, a review of the major EU energy policies is provided and relevant Best Practices are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large‐scale bioenergy plays a key role in climate change mitigation scenarios, but its efficacy is uncertain. This study aims to quantify that uncertainty by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario (RCP2.6‐SSP2), consistent with a 2°C temperature target. This analysis focuses on a single bioenergy feedstock, Miscanthus × giganteus, and contrasts projections for its yields and environmental effects from an integrated assessment model (IMAGE), a land surface and dynamic global vegetation model tailored to Miscanthus bioenergy (JULES) and a bioenergy crop model (MiscanFor). Under the present climate, JULES, IMAGE and MiscanFor capture the observed magnitude and variability in Miscanthus yields across Europe; yet in the tropics JULES and IMAGE predict high yields, whereas MiscanFor predicts widespread drought‐related diebacks. 2040–2049 projections show there is a rapid scale up of over 200 Mha bioenergy cropping area in the tropics. Resulting biomass yield ranges from 12 (MiscanFor) to 39 (JULES) Gt dry matter over that decade. Change in soil carbon ranges from +0.7 Pg C (MiscanFor) to −2.8 Pg C (JULES), depending on preceding land cover and soil carbon.2090–99 projections show large‐scale biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is projected in Europe. The models agree that <2°C global warming will increase yields in the higher latitudes, but drought stress in the Mediterranean region could produce low yields (MiscanFor), and significant losses of soil carbon (JULES and IMAGE). These results highlight the uncertainty in rapidly scaling‐up biomass energy supply, especially in dry tropical climates and in regions where future climate change could result in drier conditions. This has important policy implications—because prominently used scenarios to limit warming to 'well below 2°C' (including the one explored here) depend upon its effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long‐term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground‐based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m3 of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70‐year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under‐reporting, especially of small‐scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m3/year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long‐term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aviation industry is challenged to reduce its climate impact. The introduction of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is, among other policy instruments such as the European Emissions Trading Scheme, an option favored by policymakers in Europe to achieve this objective. These fuels feature substantially reduced carbon life-cycle emissions in comparison to fossil fuels. In Europe, a mandatory quota for the use of sustainable fuels will most likely be introduced, starting in the year 2025. The introduction of a blending mandate by governments and the European Commission is associated with a range of challenges. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the economics of climate change mitigation in aviation and the role SAFs can play. The economic issues associated with the introduction of SAFs are analyzed, with a particular focus on the European Commission's proposal for a blending mandate. Several suggestions for improvement are discussed. Furthermore, alternatives to SAFs are presented and evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the importance of permanent grasslands (PG) for the conservation of high nature value habitats is often acknowledged, their role in most of the main sustainable food system scenarios published in the last few years is less explicit. In the best case, the place of permanent grassland in scenarios and policy agendas is their conservation; in the worst one, they are simply replaced by afforested land or cropland, considered as a better option when the focus is on GHG emissions only. In this paper, we defend the idea that several misinterpretations of the positive and negative impacts of ruminants, the 'natural' users of PG, explain why ruminants are poorly addressed by most scenarios. Based on the findings of an agroecological scenario for Europe—TYFA, standing for Ten Years For Agroecology—in which extensive permanent grassland and ruminants together play a prominent role for biodiversity conservation, nitrogen cycling and climate change mitigation and adaptation, we call for a research agenda that would better inform the specific role of PG in the provision of ecosystem services—and in particular those that depend on nitrogen management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do welfare state policies affect the political support for environmental action of economically vulnerable social groups? Two competing hypotheses can be delineated. On the one hand, a synergy logic would imply that welfare state generosity is associated with higher support for environmental action among economically vulnerable groups due to the insecurity reducing effects of the welfare state. On the other hand, a crowding-out logic would suggest that welfare state generosity is associated with lower support for other policy priorities like environmental action. We test these two hypotheses using 2019 Eurobarometer survey data and country-level indicators of welfare state generosity in 22 European countries. We find that the working class and the elderly are particularly opposed to individual and national environmental action and that the welfare state plays a complex moderating role. Consistent with a synergy logic, welfare state generosity increases pro-environmental behaviour among the working class, but its association with more positive attitudes towards national environmental policies is less strong. Consistent with a crowding-out logic, the elderly appear less likely to behave in environmentally friendly ways if retirement benefits are high. To explore the mechanisms behind this association, we show that the working class who struggle to pay their bills are most opposed to environmental action. Overall, economic insecurities are key obstacles for support of environmental actions and the effects of the welfare state depend both on which social group is concerned and whether individual behaviour versus policy preferences are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest models are instrumental for understanding and projecting the impact of climate change on forests. A considerable number of forest models have been developed in the last decades. However, few systematic and comprehensive model comparisons have been performed in Europe that combine an evaluation of modelled carbon and water fluxes and forest structure. We evaluate 13 widely used, state‐of‐the‐art, stand‐scale forest models against field measurements of forest structure and eddy‐covariance data of carbon and water fluxes over multiple decades across an environmental gradient at nine typical European forest stands. We test the models' performance in three dimensions: accuracy of local predictions (agreement of modelled and observed annual data), realism of environmental responses (agreement of modelled and observed responses of daily gross primary productivity to temperature, radiation and vapour pressure deficit) and general applicability (proportion of European tree species covered). We find that multiple models are available that excel according to our three dimensions of model performance. For the accuracy of local predictions, variables related to forest structure have lower random and systematic errors than annual carbon and water flux variables. Moreover, the multi‐model ensemble mean provided overall more realistic daily productivity responses to environmental drivers across all sites than any single individual model. The general applicability of the models is high, as almost all models are currently able to cover Europe's common tree species. We show that forest models complement each other in their response to environmental drivers and that there are several cases in which individual models outperform the model ensemble. Our framework provides a first step to capturing essential differences between forest models that go beyond the most commonly used accuracy of predictions. Overall, this study provides a point of reference for future model work aimed at predicting climate impacts and supporting climate mitigation and adaptation measures in forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity demand is a crucial factor in energy system planning. Understanding future electricity demand is vital for developing effective energy and climate policies, as well as establishing a resilient and sustainable energy system. In light of these considerations, the escalating challenges posed by climate change are anticipated to have a substantial impact on electricity demand. This study, therefore, provides a comprehensive analysis delving into the dynamic nature of Temperature Response Functions (TRFs) of electricity demand across Europe. By examining various factors influencing electricity demand in residential buildings, such as thermal insulation, heating electrification, space cooling, and passive cooling, we aim to understand their collective impact on shaping future Temperature Response Functions. To project electricity demand, our study incorporates these factors into our scenario assumptions. Through a comprehensive investigation of these scenarios, our findings reveal distinctive regional influences of these factors. In regions where heating demand prevails, an initial increase in electricity demand is anticipated due to increased electrification rates. However, improved building thermal insulation is expected to substantially reduce winter electricity demand in the long run. Conversely, in regions with pronounced cooling demand, a notable escalation in electricity demand is foreseen due to increased space cooling penetration rate. Nevertheless, the application of effective passive cooling measurements is expected to mitigate and markedly diminish this increase. By highlighting the differential influences of these factors on electricity demand across Europe, our findings can offer valuable insights and guidelines first for energy system modelers for considering the change in Temperature Response Functions and second for policymakers to develop effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. • Examination of the dynamic characteristics of Temperature Response Functions (TRFs). • Space and passive cooling, electric heating, insulation effects on electricity demand. • Projection of TRFs and electricity demand for 36 European countries until 2100. • Thermal insulation and passive cooling are essential for reducing electricity demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) which is important for climate mitigation. Net ecosystem production (NEP) varies significantly across forests in different regions depending on the dominant tree species, stand age, and environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to evaluate forest NEP and its potential changes under climate change in different regions to inform forestry policy making. Norway spruce (Picea abies) is the most prevalent species in conifer forests throughout Europe. Here, we focused on Norway spruce forests and used eddy covariance-based observations of CO2 fluxes and other variables from eight sites to build a XGBoost machine learning model for NEP estimation. The NEP values from the study sites varied between −296 (source) and 1253 (sink) g C m−2 yr−1. Overall, among the tested variables, air temperature was the most important factor driving NEP variations, followed by global radiation and stand age, while precipitation had a very limited contribution to the model. The model was used to predict the NEP of mature Norway spruce forests in different regions within Europe. The NEP median value was 494 g C m−2 yr−1 across the study areas, with higher NEP values, up to >800 g C m−2 yr−1, in lower latitude regions. Under the "middle-of-the-road" SSP2-4.5 scenario, the NEP values tended to be greater in almost all the studied regions by 2060 with the estimated median of NEP changes in 2041–2060 to be +45 g C m−2 yr−1. Our results indicate that Norway spruce forests show high productivity in a wide area of Europe with potentially future NEP enhancement. However, due to the limitations of the data, the potential decrease in NEP induced by temperature increases beyond the photosynthesis optima and frequent ecosystem disturbances (e.g., drought, bark beetle infestation, etc.) still needs to be evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlocking the full potential of ponds (small water bodies) and pondscapes (network of ponds) as Nature-based Solutions (NbS) is critical pursuit for enhancing ecosystems and societal resilience to climate change and other societal challenges. Despite scattered initiatives for pond/pondscape creation, restoration and management—each considered here a distinct NbS—there is a significant knowledge gap in utilising ponds/pondscapes as effective NbS. We aimed to assess these NbS in terms of their objectives, outcomes, effectiveness, multifunctionality, delivery of potentially conflicting effects, and the implementation process while considering their Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs, i.e., benefits to society). We compiled data on 183 NbS actions implemented across 93 ponds/pondscapes from 24 countries, predominantly from Europe, via a questionnaire distributed to experienced stakeholders implementing NbS in ponds/pondscapes. One single pond/pondscape may imply more than one NbS action. Two-thirds were in rural areas, and one-third in urban settings. Our analysis revealed that Creation of habitat for biodiversity was a primary delivery objective (targeted NCP) in the implementation of most NbS in ponds/pondscapes, often also combined with other NCPs such as Learning and inspiration , Regulation of water quantity , and Physical and psychological experiences , showcasing their intended multifunctionality. Implemented NbS primarily focused on climate change adaptation (especially Regulation of hazards and extreme events , and water quantity) rather than mitigation, with less emphasis on measures like direct greenhouse gas emissions reduction or enhancing carbon sinks. The costs associated with pond's NbS varied significantly depending on factors such as project scope, objectives, location, socio-economic-cultural system, and specific implementation requirements. The creation of ponds/pondscapes often entailed the highest financial investment, much more than their restoration or their management. In conclusion, our study underscores the multifunctionality of ponds/pondscapes and provides insights about their significant potential as cost-effective NbS for enhancing ecosystem and societal resilience to climate change and biodiversity. It underscores the importance of further research to fully understand and measure the diverse range of NbS they offer, particularly in the context of climate change mitigation. Standardised measurements of the NCP provided by these NbS in ponds/pondscapes are essential for validating managers' claims and exploring their role in addressing climate change. Cascading Benefits of Natural-Based Solutions (NbS) in Ponds and Pondscapes: Ponds and pondscapes serve as multifunctional NbS, delivering multiple Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) to address climate-related challenges and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). They regulate the water quantity, mitigating flood risks, and ensuring water availability during droughts. Furthermore, these NbS indirectly support climate change adaptation by preserving microclimates, buffering temperature fluctuations, and providing vital habitats for diverse species, enhancing ecosystem resilience. Simultaneously, these actions offer recreational, cultural, educational, and well-being benefits to local communities impacted by climate change. Despite their potential, the capacity of ponds and pondscapes for climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration and storage remains unknown, requiring further exploration. [Display omitted] • Global study of 183 Nature-based Solutions in ponds/pondscapes in 24 countries. • Pondscapes' Nature-based Solutions are multifunctional and prioritise biodiversity. • Emphasis on climate change adaptation rather than mitigation. • Ponds/pondscapes offer cost-effective Nature-based Solutions. • Need for standardised measures to validate claims and explore climate mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the overwhelming scientific consensus, in many Western countries, there appears to be a considerable share of people questioning the existence and anthropogenic cause of climate change. Climate change disbelief includes the absolute rejection of the existence of anthropogenic climate change (climate change denial) as well as a lack of sureness about the anthropogenic cause of climate change (climate change uncertainty). Although considerable research on this phenomenon has been conducted, the roots of climate change disbelief are not yet fully understood. In this article, data from Round 8 of the European Social Survey are used to study the possible socioeconomic roots of climate change disbelief at the individual, regional, and country level. Results show that climate change denial is a marginal phenomenon among European populations but that a great share of people attributes climate change equally to human influences and natural processes. Thereby, it appears that the level of climate change disbelief varies between countries, and even more so between regions within countries. Results of various three-level multilevel models show that socioeconomic factors can partly explain this variation. Individuals who feel insecure about their economic future are significantly more likely to reject the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, climate change denial and uncertainty are more common in more rural and less prosperous regions and in countries more economically dependent on fossil fuels. The results contribute to a deeper understanding of climate change disbelief among the European population and have important implications for climate change mitigation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic threat of climate change: A multilevel analysis of the relationship between working in a greenhouse gas intensive sector, economic insecurity and climate policy scepticism among the lower educated in Europe This research set out to determine to what extent the relationship between working in a greenhouse gas intensive sector and climate policy scepticism can be explained by economic insecurity, while also examining the contextual influence of national commitment to climate change mitigation. Focusing on the lower educated of 21 European countries (N = 10.060) and conducting two multilevel analyses, this research found that working in a greenhouse gas intensive sector leads to more climate policy scepticism. This substantiates the idea that values of climate change scepticism are more present in the social environment of more greenhouse gas intensive sectors. This relationship is, however, not substantially explained by economic insecurity. Finally, this research found that working in a greenhouse gas intensive sector does not lead to more economic insecurity and that this relationship is only partially and minimally influenced by an extensive national climate policy agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar photovoltaics (PV) plays an essential role in decarbonizing the European energy system. However, climate change affects surface solar radiation and will therefore directly influence future PV power generation. We use scenarios from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for a mitigation (SSP1-2.6) and a fossil-fuel-dependent (SSP5-8.5) pathway in order to quantify climate risk for solar PV in Europe as simulated by the Global Solar Energy Estimator (GSEE). We find that PV potential increases by around 5 % in the mitigation scenario, suggesting a positive feedback loop between climate change mitigation and PV potential. While increased clear-sky radiation and reduced cloud cover go hand in hand in SSP1-2.6, the effect of a decrease in clear-sky radiation is outweighed by a decrease in cloud cover in SSP5-8.5, resulting in an increase in all-sky radiation. Moreover, we find that the seasonal cycle of PV generation changes in most places, as generation grows more strongly in winter than in summer (SSP1-2.6) or increases in summer and declines in winter (SSP5-8.5). We further analyze climate change impacts on the spatial variability of PV power generation. Similar to the effects anticipated for wind energy, we report an increase in the spatial correlations of daily PV production with large inter-model agreement yet relatively small amplitude, implying that PV power balancing between different regions in continental Europe will become more difficult in the future. Thus, based on the most recent climate simulations, this research supports the notion that climate change will only marginally impact renewable energy potential, while changes in the spatiotemporal generation structure are to be expected and should be included in power system design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Forest herbs might be unable to track shifts in habitat suitability due to rapid climate change and habitat fragmentation. In this study, we quantified the role of dispersal limitation and the potential mitigating effect of large‐scale reforestation on the redistribution of the herbaceous forest plant species Primula elatior under climate change. Location: Europe. Methods: High resolution (100 m) landscape‐scale and macro‐climatic variables were combined to predict range‐wide habitat suitability using Maxent. Dispersal limitation was modelled, based on isolation‐by‐resistance (IBR) principles through integration of circuit theory and genomic data, to assess patch accessibility and metapopulation stability under climate change. Large‐scale reforestation was evaluated as a potential mitigating strategy by incorporating a land use change scenario into the distribution and dispersal models. Results: Landscape‐scale variables contributed significantly to the distribution of P. elatior (78.33%) and to the accuracy of our model (AUC = 0.81). Isolation‐by‐resistance (R2cond =.92) was driven by land use (45.5%), distance from rivers (36.4%) and elevation (18.2%). It was estimated that 46.4 ± 13.9% (mean ± SD of climate change scenarios) of the total distribution area would be lost due to climate change by 2050 and an additional 15.6 ± 1.7% (mean ± SD) of the distribution would not be accessible through migration. The median latitude of the patch distribution shifted 183.2 ± 34.8 km (mean ± SD) northwards and 58.1 ± 9.3 km (mean ± SD) to more maritime regions. The patch accessibility was low in these regions and the metapopulation stability decreased considerably in the south of the distribution. Reforestation mitigated 54.1 ± 18.2% (mean ± SD) of the accessible distribution area loss and 49.5 ± 4.2% (mean ± SD) of the decrease in metapopulation stability. Main conclusion: To alleviate the loss of the accessible distribution area of P. elatior under climate change, it will be required to integrate climate mitigation strategies (RCP 2.6), range‐wide afforestation, restoration of ecological connectivity and focused assisted migration to newly available habitat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar photovoltaics (PV) plays an essential role in decarbonizing the European energy system. However, climate change affects surface solar radiation and thereby will directly influence future PV power generation. We use scenarios from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for a mitigation (SSP1-2.6) and a fossil-fuel dependent (SSP5-8.5) pathway, to quantify climate risk for solar PV in Europe simulated by the Global Solar Energy Estimator (GSEE). We find that PV potential increases by around 5 % in the mitigation scenario, suggesting a positive feedback loop between climate change mitigation and PV potential. While increased clear-sky radiation and reduced cloud cover go hand in hand in SSP1-2.6, a decrease in clear-sky radiation is overcompensated by a decrease in cloud cover in SSP5-8.5, resulting in an increase of all-sky radiation. Moreover, we find that the seasonal cycle of PV generation changes in most places as generation grows more strongly in winter than in summer (SSP1-2.6) or increases in summer and declines in winter (SSP5-8.5). We further analyze climate change impacts on the spatial variability of PV power generation. Similar to effects anticipated for wind energy, we report an increase of the spatial correlations of daily PV production with large inter-model agreement yet relatively small amplitude, implying that PV power balancing between different regions in continental Europe will become more difficult in the future. Based on the most recent climate simulations, this research thus supports the notion that climate change will only marginally impact renewable energy potential, while changes in the spatio-temporal generation structure are to be expected and should be included in power system design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 4 per 1000 initiative aims to maintain and increase soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks for soil fertility, food security, and climate change adaptation and mitigation. One way to enhance SOC stocks is to increase carbon (C) inputs to the soil. In this study, we assessed the amount of organic C inputs that are necessary to reach a target of SOC stocks increase by 4 ‰yr-1 on average, for 30 years, at 14 long-term agricultural sites in Europe. We used the Century model to simulate SOC stocks and assessed the required level of additional C inputs to reach the 4 per 1000 target at these sites. Then, we analyzed how this would change under future scenarios of temperature increase. Initial stocks were simulated assuming steady state. We compared modeled C inputs to different treatments of additional C used on the experimental sites (exogenous organic matter addition and one treatment with different crop rotations). The model was calibrated to fit the control plots, i.e. conventional management without additional C inputs from exogenous organic matter or changes in crop rotations, and was able to reproduce the SOC stock dynamics. We found that, on average among the selected experimental sites, annual C inputs will have to increase by 43.15 ± 5.05 %, which is 0.66 ± 0.23 MgCha-1yr-1 (mean ± standard error), with respect to the initial C inputs in the control treatment. The simulated amount of C input required to reach the 4 ‰ SOC increase was lower than or similar to the amount of C input actually used in the majority of the additional C input treatments of the long-term experiments. However, Century might be overestimating the effect of additional C inputs on SOC stocks. At the experimental sites, we found that treatments with additional C inputs were increasing by 0.25 % on average. This means that the C inputs required to reach the 4 per 1000 target might actually be much higher. Furthermore, we estimated that annual C inputs will have to increase even more due to climate warming, that is 54 % more and 120 % more for a 1 and 5 ∘Cpage3982 warming, respectively. We showed that modeled C inputs required to reach the target depended linearly on the initial SOC stocks, raising concern on the feasibility of the 4 per 1000 objective in soils with a higher potential contribution to C sequestration, that is soils with high SOC stocks. Our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks at a large scale and in a future with a warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents Central European perspective on why nationalism is not the right doctrine to combat climate change. Topics include nationalism the political doctrine that can help the world to deliver on the need to decrease greenhouse gas emissions; and ideas of ecological modernization that suggest to mitigate climate change efficiently through technological innovations and without reforms in the decision-making.

• The nexus between forest-based climate mitigation and health is poorly researched. • This scoping review identified exposure pathways and health co-benefits from forests. • There is potential for synergies between forest management and health benefits. • Interdisciplinary efforts are required for advancement of research and understanding. Climate change is a pressing global challenge with profound implications for human health. Forest-based climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation, reforestation, and sustainable forest management, offer promising solutions to mitigate climate change and simultaneously yield substantial co-benefits for human health. The objective of this scoping review was to examine research trends related to the interdisciplinary nexus between forests as carbon sinks and human health co-benefits. We developed a conceptual framework model, supporting the inclusion of exposure pathways, such as recreational opportunities or aesthetic experiences, in the co-benefit context. We used a scoping review methodology to identify the proportion of European research on forest-based mitigation strategies that acknowledge the interconnection between mitigation strategies and human impacts. We also aimed to assess whether synergies and trade-offs between forest-based carbon sink capacity and human co-benefits has been analysed and quantified. From the initial 4,062 records retrieved, 349 reports analysed European forest management principles and factors related to climate change mitigation capacity. Of those, 97 studies acknowledged human co-benefits and 13 studies quantified the impacts on exposure pathways or health co-benefits and were included for full review. Our analysis demonstrates that there is potential for synergies related to optimising carbon sink capacity together with human co-benefits, but there is currently a lack of holistic research approaches assessing these interrelationships. We suggest enhanced interdisciplinary efforts, using for example multideterminant modelling approaches, to advance evidence and understanding of the forest and health nexus in the context of climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, increasing the area of legume crops has been identified as a key measure to achieve the objectives set by the European Green Deal and transition toward more sustainable food systems. Although the role of grain legumes in climate change mitigation has been closely examined, little research has focused on how climate change will challenge the development of these crops. This article systematically reviews recent simulation studies to assess the impact of climate change on grain legume performances in Europe and the effect of adaptation strategies. Forty papers using process-based, ecological niche, or statistical models were selected to simulate the response of eight grain legume species to future climate (2020–2100) in Europe. The lack of data on adaptation strategies in Europe was compensated for by enlarging the study area to climatically similar regions. The review highlights a notable imbalance between research about soybean versus other grain legumes, with soybean representing approximately 80% of selected studies. Studies focused on soybean found good agreement, with yield or suitability gains found in northern Europe and a higher probability of yield losses in southern and south-eastern Europe. While a similar spatial pattern may be expected for other grain legumes, the scarcity of data makes this result more uncertain. The review also shows that several adaptation strategies have the potential to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on grain legume performances or enhance its positive impact. The most promising strategies tested include irrigation, change in sowing date, and cultivar choice. In addition, we identify several knowledge gaps that, if addressed, would support legume development in Europe. In particular, key species such as field pea, faba bean, lentil, and chickpea remain blind spots, despite their prominent role in European environmental, agricultural, and nutritional policies. Other knowledge gaps include a lack of accounting for crop response to elevated CO 2 , ozone, and future biotic pressure, and a limited range of adaptation strategies tested and indicators assessed. Implementing multi-criteria analyses that involve stakeholders would help identify relevant inputs and outputs for future simulations. • We review 40 papers assessing grain legume response to climate change in Europe. • Grain legumes other than soybean are blind spots despite their role in policies. • For soybean, yield gains are expected in the north and yield losses in the south. • Adaptation strategies can mitigate the impact of climate change on grain legumes. • We identify several knowledge gaps, including a lack of data on key legume species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robinia pseudoacacia is one of the most frequent non‐native species in Europe. It is a fast‐growing tree of high economic and cultural importance. On the other hand, it is an invasive species, causing changes in soil chemistry and light regime, and consequently altering the plant communities. Previously published models developed for the potential distribution of R. pseudoacacia concerned 2070, and were based mainly on data from Western and Central Europe; here we extended these findings and included additional data from Eastern Europe. To fill the gap in current knowledge of R. pseudoacacia distribution and improve the reliability of forecasts, we aimed to (i) determine the extent to which the outcome of range modeling will be affected by complementing R. pseudoacacia occurrence data with sites from Central, Southeastern, and Eastern Europe, (ii) identify and quantify the changes in the availability of climate niches for 2050 and 2070, and discuss their impacts on forest management and nature conservation. We showed that the majority of the range changes expected in 2070 will occur as early as 2050. In comparison to previous studies, we demonstrated a greater eastward shift of potential niches of this species and a greater decline of potential niches in Southern Europe. Consequently, future climatic conditions will likely favor the occurrence of R. pseudoacacia in Central and Northeastern Europe where this species is still absent or relatively rare. There, controlling the spread of R. pseudoacacia will require monitoring sources of invasion in the landscape and reducing the occurrence of this species. The expected effects of climate change will likely be observed 20 years earlier than previously forecasted. Hence we highlighted the urgent need for acceleration of policies aimed at climate change mitigation in Europe. Also, our results showed the need for using more complete distribution data to analyze potential niche models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of anthropogenic climate change have become increasingly prevalent. There is thus a need both to prevent climate change or soften its effects (mitigation) and to address and deal with effects that are already occurring (adaptation). To facilitate climate action in a creative way, new forms of collaboration are needed, which will lead to increased transformative potential for individuals, for the economy, and for society as a whole. Against this background, community-academic partnerships can serve as an innovative format for collaboration. However, to ensure that these partnerships develop to their full potential, they must be designed in such a way that all involved can participate effectively. Consequently, the question arises of what the success factors and conditions for effective practices are for community-academic partnerships focusing on climate change adaptation and/or mitigation. To answer this question, a Delphi study was conducted with a panel of experts on cocreation processes and climate change adaptation and/or mitigation under the auspices of the European project TeRRIFICA. The results of the study show how community-academic partnerships should be structured and designed to ensure that all stakeholders are involved in the entire process and that positive contributions to climate change adaptation and mitigation can be made. Overall, the results confirm existing findings on success factors for community-academic partnerships, but the relevance of hands-on activities and supportive tools is emphasized much more clearly than in the existing literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We examine the impacts of personal social capital and national carbon dependency on citizens' response to climate change in 22 European countries. • We utilize individual-level data from the 2016 European Social Survey and corresponding country-level data from multiple sources. • We conduct multilevel regression for analyses. • People with higher social capital are more likely to have climate-mitigation behavioral intention and show support for climate policy. • Greater national carbon dependency tends to inhibit public response to climate change. Climate change is one of the most challenging issues facing the world today, and it is important to have effective policies to address its impact. One critical factor in shaping climate policy is public response to climate change. In this study, we theoretically and empirically focus on examining the impacts of personal social capital and national carbon dependency on citizens' response to climate change in 22 European countries. Utilizing individual-level data from the 2016 European Social Survey and corresponding country-level data from multiple sources, we conduct multilevel regression analyses. Findings show that in these 22 European countries people with higher social capital are more likely to have climate-mitigation behavioral intention and show support for climate policy, while greater national carbon dependency tends to inhibit public response to climate change. We conclude by discussing this study's contributions to the literature and policy implications and offer suggestions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, momentum to restore damaged habitats has been increasing. For example, the number of European shellfish restoration projects has quadrupled in the past 3 years. In line with the increasing focus on both restoration and climate change mitigation efforts, this study highlights how these two practices can complement each other.This experimental study quantifies the active and passive sediment deposition associated with the European flat oyster (Ostrea edulis) and the organic and inorganic carbon fractions of the deposits. Treatments included 'dead', 'live', and control to account for (i) passive deposition, (ii) biodeposition and passive deposition, and (iii) background deposition respectively. By utilizing these data, the expected carbon deposition associated with a restored flat oyster bed was investigated.The experiment was conducted ex situ, with natural seawater input. Covariate data on temperature, suspended particulate influx, salinity, and oxygen availability were recorded. Enhanced sedimentation (2.9 times) and organic carbon deposition (three times) were observed in the presence of living oysters, compared with the control. The shell structure of the oysters had no influence on passive sedimentation in this study.By developing a full understanding of the ecosystem services (functioning, supporting, regulating, and cultural) provided by a habitat, it becomes possible to quantify overall ecosystem function. This evidence is key in advising policymakers, restoration funders, and marine spatial planners on the connection between keystone species restoration, ecosystem service restoration, and conservation management.The enhancement of benthopelagic coupling by the European flat oyster, evidenced here for the first time, is contextualized from the perspective of quantification of ecosystem service provision for both restoration practices and blue carbon store management. The data produced in this study are discussed comparatively with work that has focused on other species from both Europe and the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Around 70 Mha of land cover changes (LCCs) occurred in Europe from 1992 to 2015. Despite LCCs being an important driver of regional climate variations, their temperature effects at a continental scale have not yet been assessed. Here, we integrate maps of historical LCCs with a regional climate model to investigate air temperature and humidity effects. We find an average temperature change of −0.12 ± 0.20 °C, with widespread cooling (up to −1.0 °C) in western and central Europe in summer and spring. At continental scale, the mean cooling is mainly correlated with agriculture abandonment (cropland-to-forest transitions), but a new approach based on ridge-regression decomposing the temperature change to the individual land transitions shows opposite responses to cropland losses and gains between western and eastern Europe. Effects of historical LCCs on European climate are non-negligible and region-specific, and ignoring land-climate biophysical interactions may lead to sub-optimal climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Land cover change contributes to regional climate trends. Here, the authors use high-resolution land cover maps and state-of-the-art climate modelling to assess land cover change effects across Europe over 1992-2015, showing widespread cooling after agricultural abandonment but also different, region-specific effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying areas that contain species assemblages not found elsewhere in a region is central to conservation planning. 1,2 Species assemblages contain networks of species interactions that underpin species dynamics, 3,4 ecosystem processes, and contributions to people. 5,6,7 Yet the uniqueness of interaction networks in a regional context has rarely been assessed. Here, we estimated the spatial uniqueness of 10,000 terrestrial vertebrate trophic networks across Europe (1,164 species, 50,408 potential interactions 8) based on the amount of similarity between all local networks mapped at a 10 km resolution. Our results revealed more unique networks in the Arctic bioregion, but also in southern Europe and isolated islands. We then contrasted the uniqueness of trophic networks with their vulnerability to human footprint and future climate change and measured their coverage within protected areas. This analysis revealed that unique networks situated in southern Europe were particularly exposed to human footprint and that unique networks in the Arctic might be at risk from future climate change. However, considering interaction networks at the level of trophic groups, rather than species, revealed that the general structure of trophic networks was redundant across the continent, in contrast to species' interactions. We argue that proactive European conservation strategies might gain relevance by turning their eyes toward interaction networks that are both unique and vulnerable. • The interaction dissimilarity between networks can measure their spatial uniqueness • Networks in southern Europe are unique and vulnerable to human footprint • Networks in the Arctic are unique and vulnerable to future climate change • Considering trophic groups instead of interactions, networks are rather redundant Gaüzère et al. estimate the spatial uniqueness of vertebrates' trophic networks in Europe based on interaction dissimilarities. Unique networks situated in southern Europe are exposed to human footprint, while Arctic ones are at risk from future climate change. In terms of functional groups, trophic networks are redundant across Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A RCM is used to study the effect of LCC on climate extremes in Europe. • LCC significantly changes the occurrence frequency and duration of extreme climate. • Increasing understanding of land cover change-climate interactions. • Findings are helpful in developing future land management strategies in Europe. Extremes in climate and weather can pose significant challenges to economy, ecosystems and human health. Changes in land cover are one of the drivers for variability in frequency and magnitude of extreme climate at regional and local levels. In this study, a regional climate model (COSMO-CLM v4.8) is used to simulate effects in climate extremes from two different idealized land cover change scenarios in Europe. These two simulations involve abrupt large-scale conversion of today forestland to herbaceous vegetation (deforestation), and of today cropland to evergreen needle-leave forest (afforestation). A control simulation with today land cover distribution is used to identify differences in extreme climate. We find significant changes in extreme climate in both deforestation and afforestation simulations, with seasonal and spatial differences. Deforestation causes a warmer summer (with higher annual maximum temperature) and a colder winter (with lower annual minimum temperature). Afforestation slightly increases the average intensity of the hot extremes, although with high spatial variability (a reduction is common in several locations), and mitigates cold extremes in winter. Changes in extreme indices show that deforestation increases both the frequency and duration of hot and cold extremes, while afforestation causes a lower frequency of extreme cold climate. The two simulations show opposing results in the number of frozen days, as they increase for deforestation and decrease for afforestation. A drier climate is found after deforestation, whereas a wetter climate is observed after afforestation. In general, deforestation and afforestation increase the frequency of hot extreme climate as they reduce the return period and increase the return level. Overall, our findings show the potential critical effects that land cover changes can have on climate extremes, and the possible synergies that land management strategies and planning can have for climate change mitigation and adaptation at a regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the UK introduced a Climate Change Act (CCA) in 2008, similar legislation has followed in a number of states, with each having a slightly different take. What unites these examples is that they all represent framework legislation that aims to facilitate climate change mitigation by creating continuous policy processes whereby mechanisms for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed and implemented. This article is concerned with the extent to which they are living policy processes or rather symbolic gestures. We analyse seven European CCAs with regard to GHG emission reduction targets, planning/implementation mechanisms, and feedback/evaluations prescribed by the laws. These three features correspond with three aspects of climate policy integration (CPI): interpretations of CPI as a norm; CPI as a process of governing; CPI as a policy outcome. We show that CCAs address all three aspects of CPI and constitute living policy processes, although to varying extents. However, CCAs are also policy processes in that they are part of a political system, affected by political forces external to the legislation, positively and negatively. Key policy insights CCAs can provide a normative basis for policymaking on climate change at the national level, especially through quantitative emission reduction targets. Whilst CCAs can bring some stability and predictability to policymaking on climate change (mainly because legislation is more difficult to amend or remove than policy strategies), they are still vulnerable to political developments. Most CCAs lack either short/medium-term (Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden) or long-term (Austria) targets. Given EU Member States' aim to decarbonise in the next three decades and the Paris Agreement's global goal of pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C, states need to find ways to guide this process. One approach could be the inclusion of short-term, medium-term and long-term targets in their CCAs. Since sanctioning mechanisms are lacking across all the CCAs analysed here, it is not clear what will happen if legally binding targets are not met. Just as it is difficult to imagine speed limits and speed cameras without accompanying penalties, it is hard to imagine how CCAs without sanctions can deliver decarbonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid urbanization presents one of the most urgent challenges of our times. Cities must cope with poor air quality, heat island effects, increased flood risk and the frequency/severity of extreme events (e.g., droughts and heat waves), increasing crime and social inequity, poverty and degraded urban environments, amongst other negative consequences. Climate change adaptation and mitigation as well as sustainable management are therefore key challenges for cities in Europe and around the world. What must be developed therefore is a robust, wide evidence-base and reference framework of nature-based solutions (NBS) – measures that mimic the complex features and processes of natural ecosystems – for local/regional city authorities and other policy and decision makers to increase climate resilience and address inclusive urban regeneration in cities. In response to this need, we propose an applicative framework for NBS using the structure of the DPSIR (Driving force–Pressure–State–Impact–Response) model, in conformity with European Community standards. Indeed, under the umbrella of the EC's Framework Program – Horizon 2020 – international institutions, scientific experts and policy makers worldwide are seeking to increase collaboration with cities to enhance ecosystem services and develop the evidence-base for the economic, social and environmental benefits of nature-based solutions. They are eager to exchange knowledge and inspire positive action for nature in urban areas to meet their growing social and environmental challenges. The time has come to acknowledge NBS as the most fitting response to the numerous challenges posed by our changing climate and for the realization of sustainable and healthy cities. It is hoped that this article will pioneer others in settling the issue for NBS as the undisputable answer to challenged urban landscapes and societies globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study reviews conservative political party policy positions in six European countries with high greenhouse-gas emissions (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and the U.K.). Using party platform statements from recent election campaigns, the positions of moderate conservative parties are compared with those of far-right political parties to investigate similarities and differences on energy-transition policy. Three areas of policy are considered: climate-change mitigation, fossil-fuel development or sunsetting, and renewable energy and energy efficiency development. In the countries examined, moderate conservative parties generally remain committed to climate-mitigation policy and renewable energy and energy efficiency policy, but there are some roll-backs of support, and there is variation in their support for fossil-fuel development. Far-right parties tend to show evidence of rejection of climate science, opposition to decarbonization in general, support for natural gas hydraulic fracturing technologies, support for continued use of coal, and opposition to some types of policy favorable to renewable energy and energy efficiency. However, some far-right parties, notably in France and Spain, share several important positions with the center-right parties. The study cautions against assuming an automatic linkage between far-right parties and opposition to energy-transition policies and against assuming that far-right parties will oppose all types of energy-transition policies. Highlights • Skepticism and rejection of climate science appears in some of the platforms of far-right Euroskeptic parties. • The far-right parties of Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.K. are strongly opposed to a range of energy-transition policies. • The far-right parties of France and Spain have more moderate positions that are close to center-right parties. • Far-right parties tend to be opposed to wind power but less so to energy efficiency and distributed solar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The management of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) is a critical component of both nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation and global food security. Agriculture has contributed substantially to a reduction in global SOC through cultivation, thus there has been renewed focus on management practices which minimize SOC losses and increase SOC gain as pathways towards maintaining healthy soils and reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. Mechanistic models are frequently used to aid in identifying these pathways due to their scalability and cost-effectiveness. Yet, they are often computationally costly and rely on input data that are often only available at coarse spatial resolutions. Herein, we build statistical meta-models of a multifactorial crop model in order to both (a) obtain a simplified model response and (b) explore the biophysical determinants of SOC responses to management and the geospatial heterogeneity of SOC dynamics across Europe. Using 5600 unique simulations of crop growth from the gridded Environmental Policy Integrated Climate-based Gridded Agricultural Model (EPIC-IIASA GAM) covering 86,000 simulation units across Europe, we build multiple polynomial regression ensemble meta-models for unique combinations of climate and soil across Europe in order to predict SOC responses to varying management intensities. We find that our biophysically-explicit meta models are highly accurate (R2 = 0.97) representations of the full mechanistic model and can be used in lieu of the full EPIC-IIASA GAM model for the estimation of SOC responses to cropland management. Model stratification by means of climate and soil clustering improved the performance of the meta-models compared to the full EU-scale model. In regional and local validations of the meta-model predictions, we find that the meta-models largely capture broad SOC dynamics such as the linear nature of SOC responses to residue application, yet they often underestimate the magnitude of SOC responses to management. Furthermore, we find notable differences between the results from the biophysically-specific models throughout Europe, which point to spatially-distinct SOC responses to management choices such as nitrogen fertilizer application rates and residue retention that illustrate the potential for these models to be used for future management applications. While more accurate input data, calibration, and validation will be needed to accurately predict SOC change, we demonstrate the use of our meta-models for biophysical cluster and field study scale analyses of broad SOC dynamics with basically zero fine-tuning of the models needed. This work provides a framework for simplifying large-scale agricultural models and identifies the opportunities for using these meta-models for assessing SOC responses to management at a variety of scales. • Meta-model approach used to simplify process based crop model. • Exploration of the determinants of soil organic carbon responses to management. • Meta-model predictions validated with regional and local data. • Meta-models largely capture broad dynamics, underestimate magnitude of responses. • More accurate input data, calibration, and validation needed to improve accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policies concerning the sector of green jobs on European level are related mainly to environmental protection, as well as those for clean energy and climate change. They require the application of policies for developing the sector of renewable energy and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by creating new sustainable jobs. The aim of the paper is based on the review and analysis of policies related to climate change, to assess their impact on the sector of green jobs. The first part of the paper presents a review of climate change policies and an assessment of their impact on the creation of green jobs. The second part of the paper includes general conclusions about the role of policies related to climate change for the sector of green jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The optimal forest management strategies for mitigating climate change are hotly debated during political negotiations, because afforestation and forest management can increase atmospheric CO 2 removal, and the wood produced can provide a substitute for fossil fuel. Studies quantifying the carbon balance of the forest sector apply a wide variety of management and wood-use scenarios. Some model studies include future climate change effects on forest growth, but others ignore them. Here, a conceptual empirical model of sequestration efficiency, the fraction of net primary production stored in the biosphere and anthroposhere, simulates European forest carbon pools and fluxes. The sensitivity of the sequestration efficiency of European forests was quantified by varying model parameters along the forest growth and wood transformation chain: environment and climate change, harvest intensity, rotation length, fraction of harvest residues left on site and substitution efficiency. Irrespective of the evolution of the sink, the forest sector as a whole remains a net carbon absorber in 99% of the simulations at a time horizon of 100 years, even if in 25% of the simulations the forests themselves become sources. However, if the goal is to enhance the current sequestration efficiency to mitigate emissions, only in 25% of the simulations the sink efficiency was found to be enhanced. If the current sink were to reverse to a source, no management action or change in wood use would result in an increase in the current forest sequestration efficiency. In all other cases, increasing harvest levels would lead to an increase in forest sector carbon emissions, highlighting the pivotal role of the baseline used to set the emission reduction targets. Our results show that the uncertainty on the response of European forest to climate change undermines the quest for a carbon-optimal management strategy. The uncertainty in whether climate change will maintain the current forest sink or turn it into a carbon source is largely overlooked in the debate over the best forest management strategy to reduce the growth of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, yet it is large enough to change the merit order of different alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the interactions between agricultural policy measures in the EU and the factors affecting GHG emissions from agriculture on the one hand, and the adaptation of agriculture to climate change on the other. To this end, the article uses Slovenia as a case study, assessing the extent to which Slovenian agricultural policy is responding to the challenges of climate change. All agricultural policy measures related to the 2007–2013 programming period were analysed according to a new methodological approach that is based on a qualitative (expert evaluation) and a quantitative (budgetary transfers validation) assessment. A panel of experts reached consensus on the key factors through which individual measures affect climate change, in which direction and how significantly. Data on budgetary funds for each measure were used as weights to assess their relative importance. The results show that there are not many measures in (Slovenian) agricultural policy that are directly aimed at reducing GHG emissions from agriculture or at adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, most affect climate change, and their impact is far from negligible. Current measures have both positive and negative impacts, but overall the positive impacts prevail. Measures that involve many beneficiaries and more budgetary funds had the strongest impact on aggregate assessments. In light of climate change, agricultural policy should pay more attention to measures that are aimed at raising the efficiency of animal production, as it is the principal source of GHG emissions from agriculture. Policy relevance Agricultural policy must respond to climate challenges and climate change impact assessment must be included in the process of forming European agricultural policy. Agricultural policy measures that contribute to the reduction of emissions and adaptation, whilst acting in synergy with other environmental, economic and social goals, should be promoted. The approach used in this study combines qualitative and quantitative data, yielding an objective assessment of the climate impact of agricultural policy measures and providing policy makers with a tool for eitherex anteorex postevaluations of climate-relevant policy measures. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The ongoing global climate change is challenging all sectors, forestry notwithstanding. On the one hand, forest ecosystems are exposed to and threatened by climate change, but on the other hand, forests can influence the course of climate change by regulating the water regime, air quality, carbon sequestration, and even reduce climate extremes. Therefore, it is crucial to see climate change not only as a risk causing forest disturbances and economic consequences but also as an opportunity for innovative approaches to forest management, conservation, and silviculture based on the results of long-term research. We reviewed 365 studies evaluating the impact of climate change on European forest ecosystems, all published during the last 30 years (1993–2022). The most significant consequences of climate change include more frequent and destructive large-scale forest disturbances (wildfire, windstorm, drought, flood, bark beetle, root rot), and tree species migration. Species distribution shifts and changes in tree growth rate have substantial effects on ecosystem carbon storage. Diameter/volume increment changed from −1 to +99% in Central and Northern Europe, while it decreased from −12 to −49% in Southern Europe across tree species over the last ca. 50 years. However, it is important to sharply focus on the causes of climate change and subsequently, on adaptive strategies, which can successfully include the creation of species-diverse, spatially and age-wise structured stands (decrease drought stress and increase production), prolongation of the regenerative period, or the use of suitable introduced tree species (e.g., Douglas fir, black pine, and Mediterranean oaks). But the desired changes are based on increasing diversity and the mitigation of climate change, and will require significantly higher initial costs for silviculture practices. In conclusion, the scope and complexity of the topic require further comprehensive and long-term studies focusing on international cooperation. We see a critical gap in the transfer of research results into actual forest practice, which will be the key factor influencing afforestation of forest stands and forest growth in the following decades. What our forests will look like for future generations and what the resulting impact of climate change will be on forestry is in the hands of forest managers, depending on supportive forestry research and climate change policy, including adaptive and mitigation strategies. • We review main factors influencing forest growth processes under climate change (CC). • We concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of CC on forest ecosystems. • Consequences of CC include large-scale forest disturbances and tree species migration. • Review is focused on management adaptive strategies and mitigation of CC. • Opportunity and risk of introduced tree species are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results from a large multi-country study focusing on public perceptions of climate change and relevant mitigation and adaptation policies in Spain, Netherlands, UK and Germany. The purpose of this paper is two-fold: first, to understand the nature of public perceptions of global climate change in different countries; and secondly, to gauge the public's support of climate change measures in terms of mitigation and adaptation policies. Our analysis shows high levels of public indecisiveness regarding the danger climate change poses, which source of climate change information to trust and whether to support any mitigation or adaptation strategies. The high levels of uncertainty present an opportunity to increase policy support and foster behavioural changes in the future through well-designed communication programmes. Therefore, this study has identified several aspects that need to be considered in future communication programmes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving sustainability and resilience transformations under climate change requires transformative and multi-scale visions to stimulate coherent thinking and action towards radically alternative futures. We present our approach to co-produce transformative visions contextualised in different regions across Europe, while exploring emergent 'pan-European' vision elements to guide transformative climate action across scales. We co-produced visions with stakeholders in four case studies: European, national (Scotland), transboundary river basin (Iberia) and two municipalities (Hungary). All visions share core aspirations for good living, justice and social and environmental wellbeing in Europe, while allowing contextualised interpretation to remain meaningful in view of context-specific needs, priorities, cultural perceptions and aspirations. The visions point to areas where deep transformations are required: in service provisioning from critical infrastructures like energy, food, health and education, and in lifestyles and governance. We discuss two key methodological considerations for the co-production of transformative visions across multiple scales. Firstly, the application of a systematic and comprehensive framework across all scales provided a guide to compare and ensure coherence between visions across multiple scales. Secondly, the creation of transformative spaces to co-produce the visions with stakeholders supported critical reflections and learning about the radical and multi-dimensional changes necessary in different regions in Europe. • Transformative visions can be important drivers of desirable societal change. • Transformative visions need to be contextualised and coherent across scales. • A systematic framework guides coherent envisioning across multiple scales. • Transformative spaces gauge critical reflections, learning and empowerment. • Pathways can translate visions into concrete actions to support implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Integrative mitigation and adaptation strategies are needed to counter climate change. Indicators can be valuable that focus on the specific relevance of cities' socioeconomic and spatial properties. While previous analyses have identified socioeconomic influences on urban greenhouse gas emissions, information about the role of spatial urban structures and land use and land cover patterns is sparse. Objective: This study advances the use of spatial metrics for analyzing the linkages between the spatial properties of a city and its greenhouse gas emissions. Methods: The relationship between nine types of spatial structure, four land use and land cover-based indicators, and the emissions of 52 European cities is investigated by spatially and statistically analyzing high resolution data from European Union's 'Urban Atlas'. Results: Spatial determinants of urban greenhouse gas emissions are identified, indicating a strong connection between urban sprawl and increasing emissions. In particular, high amounts of sparsity in the urban fabric within large distances to the city center relate to increased per capita emissions. Thus, a 10 % reduction of very low density urban fabrics is correlated with 9 % fewer emissions per capita. In contrast, high amounts of fragmented, dense urban patches relate with lower emissions. Conclusions: This study links urban spatial properties and land use and land cover compositions to greenhouse gas emissions and advances the understanding of urban sprawl. Future research needs to combine knowledge about socioeconomic drivers with information about the identified spatial influences of urban greenhouse gas emissions to help cities realize their climate change mitigation potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is heat becoming a major threat to cities? Following the heat wave in Europe in 2003, which is estimated to have caused the deaths of 70,000 people, municipal authorities began to develop adaptation and mitigation plans and programs. Legal obligations to consider climate change within various development projects have been defined, e.g. by the latest amendment of the EU EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) Directive (2014/52/EU) and the Federal Building Code (BauGB §1a (5)). However, urban heat hazards have not yet received as much attention as, for example, carbon dioxide emissions as drivers of global warming. Dense urban structures, high buildings, dark surfaces, and high population densities trigger urban heat effects. With about 3/4 of Europeans living in cities, measures to reduce heat-related impacts are needed. This paper evaluates how German cities have implemented measures towards climate change adaptation. The results show that 24 out of 30 cities have developed mitigation and/or adaptation plans, with a majority focusing on mitigating 2, indicating less awareness of urban heat hazards. Moreover, we found elaborate and comprehensive examples which might serve as blue-prints for adaptation strategies. Based on the inhomogeneous scope of the different plans and programs, there remains a need for guidance and more knowledge exchange among the cities on mitigation/adaptation options and preferably information on their effectiveness, to further assist cities in tackling heat stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building public will for climate action requires designing messages for different audiences. Previous studies that identified groups based on similar beliefs, behavior, and political preferences related to climate change were in single countries. The current pre-registered study ran latent class analysis on the European Social Survey (ESS 2016; N = 44,387) to identify groups of people according to their climate change attitudes and beliefs in 22 European countries and Israel. We found strong evidence for four groups: Engaged (18%), Pessimistic (18%), Indifferent (42%), and Doubtful (21%) and we compare the segment structure and proportions within Europe and to other countries. We identify differences between the groups in values, life satisfaction, and social trust, and then revealed that the groups uniquely predict self-reported behaviors not included in the segmentation. The findings characterize climate change beliefs for all of Europe and guide governments and pan-European bodies in designing effective communications to promote climate beliefs and actions. • Latent class analysis on the European Social Survey identified four groups of people by climate change attitudes and beliefs. • Strong evidence for four groups: Engaged (18%), Pessimistic (18%), Indifferent (42%), and Doubtful (21%). • The four groups uniquely predict self-reported behaviors not included in the segmentation. • The relative group size can be tracked as an index of Europe-wide attitudes about climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We predict climate change hotspots and coldspots based on climate change velocity in Europe. • Velocities are projected highest in the Continental region, lowest in the Mediterranean region. • The Alpine region will likely contain largest areal proportions of hotspots, the Mediterranean region largest proportions of coldspots. • Natura 2000 area overlapping with hotspots is largest in the Alpine region, with coldspots much smaller in any region. • The outcomes suggest climate-smart conservation prioritization across Europe and the Natura 2000 network. Anthropogenic climate change is challenging biodiversity conservation worldwide. Climate change metrics derived from future climate predictions help to assess potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Here we calculated future climate change velocities across biogeographical regions of terrestrial Europe and the Natura 2000 protected area network, the largest protected area network on Earth. We applied climate projections for the year 2070, considering two emission scenarios, six global climate models and a fine spatial resolution. Areas with very high climate change velocity were identified as climate change hotspots, while areas with very low velocity were recognized as coldspots. We further revealed where and to what extent climate change hotspots and coldspots coincide with Natura 2000 sites. We found that climate change velocities are projected highest in the Continental and Boreal regions, and lowest in the Mediterranean and Anatolian regions. However, the Alpine region will likely contain largest areal proportions of climate change hotspots, while areal proportions of coldspots are projected largest in the Mediterranean region. High mountain regions such as the Alps show a high proportion of Natura 2000 sites that coincide with climate change hotspots. Both, hotspots and coldspots, are geographically associated with areas of topographic diversity. Low topographical diversity indicates high climate change exposure. The impact of hotspots increases with spatial isolation. Oceanic climate buffers climate change exposure in contrast to continental climate. However, continental regions of Europe tend to exhibit less spatial isolation. We recommend conservation action in climate change hotspots and coldspots to simultaneously protect the most climate-exposed biodiversity as well as climate change refugia. Climate change hotspots and coldspots overlapping with Natura 2000 sites should be considered priority conservation sites because new protected areas are hard to realize in densely populated landscapes of Europe. This study directs European conservation management and policy towards meeting international conservation goals in a climate-smart way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The near future change in productivity of photovoltaic energy (PVE) in Europe and Africa is assessed by using the climate variables simulated by the ECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model, and a model for the performance of photovoltaic systems. The climate simulations are forced by green-house gases emissions from the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. In addition, different scenarios for future anthropogenic aerosols emissions are applied. Thus, the sensitivity of the future PVE productivity to changes in aerosol atmospheric burdens between 2000 and 2030 is analyzed. The analysis indicates that reductions in aerosols emissions in the near future result in an increase of global warming, and a significant response in surface solar radiation and associated PVE productivity. A statistically significant reduction in PVE productivity up to 7% is observed in eastern Europe and northern Africa, while a significant increase up to 10% is observed in western Europe and eastern Mediterranean. The changes in surface solar radiation and PVE productivity are related to global effects of aerosols reduction on the large scale circulation and associated cloud cover pattern, rather than to local effects on the atmospheric optical properties. PVE assessment is then discussed in the frame of the present situation and next decades evolution of the photovoltaic market, highlighting that the effects on productivity induced by industrial and public policies, and technological development are comparable to climate related effects. The presented results encourage the improvement and further use of climate models in assessment of future renewable energies availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] Sustainable Development Goal #7 calls for "access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all." Scientific evidence is growing that greenhouse-gas emissions have a noticeable effect on the earth's climate. Many purpose-built post-war social housing estates in Europe that form high-density residential-tower blocks, however, do not meet current stringent energy-efficiency standards. As a result, many of these structures are under threat of overheating and require careful planning to implement holistic energy subsidisation schemes. This article presents a setup of building energy performance framework that was developed according to the in-situ measurements of building-fabric thermal structure to asset robust energy performance evaluation and certification schemes in the residential sector. This empirical study examines social householders' electricity reliability in accordance with assessing overheating risk of housing stock in South-eastern Europe where the weather is subtropical (Csa) and partly semi-arid (Bsh). It also investigates the gap between as-designed and as-built energy performances. The findings for thermal anomalies resulted from air infiltration through the building fabric, and a lack of natural ventilation through living spaces and excessive heat gains through sizeable and glazed areas. On a typical hot summer day, the internal temperatures of the simulated condominiums remained high throughout the day and night, ranging from a minimum 28.5 °C to a maximum 36.5 °C. Insights from this empirical study improve the national energy network and subsidisation schemes in Europe. The energy policy and regulations would benefit from conceptual level analysis and planning prioritisation in accordance with the climate characteristics of each EU-27-member state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Spatial and socioeconomic predictors for climate change (CC) attitudes were examined. • Certain dimensions of CC attitudes are associated with regional population change. • All dimensions of CC attitudes show a strong educational gradient. • CC attitudes and efficacy are socioeconomically stratified and spatially determined. Climate change views have their socioeconomic foundations but also specific geographies. In merging these perspectives, this analysis uses ESS Round 8 data from 23 European countries to examine whether climate change scepticism and concern, pro-environmental personal norm and a willingness to engage in energy-saving behaviour exhibit, first, urban–rural and/or regional differences, and second, if these attitudes can be explained at individual level by socioeconomic position and wellbeing resources. We find that climate change scepticism and concern do exhibit urban–rural differences, where living in a country village is associated with greater climate scepticism and lower concern compared to living in a big city. Also, higher climate change concern and pro-environmental norms are associated with living in a region with constant population growth. These geographical differences are independent of individual-level socioeconomic attributes as well as one's political orientation. Additionally, the results show that both climate change attitudes and reporting energy-saving behaviour are strongly stratified by level of education and reveal that those in lower income deciles feel less pro-environmental norm but nonetheless report greater engagement with energy-saving behaviour. In sum, the results highlight that climate change mitigation is not a uniform project either spatially or within certain socioeconomic strata. Hence, our results suggest that socioeconomic disadvantage (belonging to the lowest education and income levels) and spatial marginalisation (living in more rural surroundings and declining regions) should be better acknowledged when reworking climate change and environmental policies in the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]