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Invasive plants are often sold as ornamental garden plants, but how often are species sold in the same locations as where they are invasive? To answer this question, we assessed the geography of ornamental plant sales in the United States in relation to existing invasions and potential invasion risk with climate change. Using a data set of 672 nurseries selling 89 invasive plants, we estimated the distance between nursery sales and invasive species' observed distributions. We also used species range maps to identify nursery sales within current potential invaded ranges, as well as within species' future potential ranges given climate change. Half of the species were sold by a nursery within 21 kilometers of an observed record of invasion. Under the current climate, horticulture could be seeding invasions for 73 of the 89 species studied, and horticulture could facilitate climate-driven range expansion of 25 of 89 species. Our results illustrate risks associated with horticultural introductions of invasive species, providing guidance for regulatory and educational interventions that reduce the spread of ongoing and future invasions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large‐scale patterns of biodiversity and formation have garnered increasing attention in biogeography and macroecology. The Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (QTP) is an ideal area for exploring these issues. However, the QTP consists of multiple geographic subunits, which are understudied. The Kunlun Mountains is a geographical subunit situated in the northern edge of the QTP, in northwest China. The diversity pattern, community phylogenetic structures, and biogeographical roles of the current flora of the Kunlun Mountains were analyzed by collecting and integrating plant distribution, regional geological evolution, and phylogeography. A total of 1911 species, 397 genera, and 75 families present on the Kunlun Mountains, of which 29.8% of the seed plants were endemic to China. The mean divergence time (MDT) of the Kunlun Mountains flora was in the early Miocene (19.40 Ma). Analysis of plant diversity and MDT indicated that the eastern regions of the Kunlun Mountains were the center of species richness, endemic taxa, and ancient taxa. Geographical origins analysis showed that the Kunlun Mountains flora was diverse and that numerous clades were from East Asia and Tethyan. Analysis of geographical origins and geological history together highlighted that the extant biodiversity on the Kunlun Mountains appeared through species recolonization after climatic fluctuations and glaciations during the Quaternary. The nearest taxon index speculated that habitat filtering was the most important driving force for biodiversity patterns. These results suggest that the biogeographical roles of the Kunlun Mountains are corridor and sink, and the corresponding key processes are species extinction and immigration. The Kunlun Mountains also form a barrier, representing a boundary among multiple floras, and convert the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau into a relatively closed geographical unit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change, plant populations experience environmental conditions to which they are not adapted. Our understanding of the next century's vegetation geography depends on the distance, direction, and rate at which plant distributions shift in response to a changing climate. In this study we test the sensitivity of tree range shifts (measured as the difference between seedling and mature tree ranges in climate space) to wildfire occurrence, using 74,069 Forest Inventory Analysis plots across nine states in the western United States. Wildfire significantly increased the seedling-only range displacement for 2 of the 8 tree species in which seedling-only plots were displaced from tree-plus-seedling plots in the same direction with and without recent fire. The direction of climatic displacement was consistent with that expected for warmer and drier conditions. The greater seedling-only range displacement observed across burned plots suggests that fire can accelerate climate-related range shifts and that fire and fire management will play a role in the rate of vegetation redistribution in response to climate change. Tree species that are expanding their distribution in response to climate change could be hindered or facilitated by disturbances. Here the authors analyse forest inventory data from the western US to test the hypothesis that wildfire can facilitate climate-induced range shifts in trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Like many other high elevation alpine tree species, Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.) may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. To evaluate its potential vulnerability to shifts in climate, we defined the suitable climate space for each of four genetic lineages of bristlecone pine and for other subalpine tree species in close proximity to bristlecone pine forests. Measuring changes in the suitable climate space for lineage groups is an important step beyond models that assume species are genetically homogenous. The suitable climate space for bristlecone pine in the year 2090 is projected to decline by 74% and the proportional distribution of suitable climate space for genetic lineages shifts toward those associated with warmer and wetter conditions. The 2090 climate space for bristlecone pine exhibits a bimodal distribution along an elevation gradient, presumably due to the persistence of the climate space in the Southern Rocky Mountains and exclusion at mid-elevations by conditions that favor the climate space of other species. These shifts have implications for changes in fire regimes, vulnerability to pest and pathogens, and altered carbon dynamics across the southern Rockies, which may reduce the likelihood of bristlecone pine trees achieving exceptional longevity in the future. The persistence and expansion of climate space for southern bristlecone pine genetic lineage groups in 2090 suggests that these sources may be the least vulnerable in the future. While these lineages may be more likely to persist and therefore present opportunities for proactive management (e.g., assisted migration) to maintain subalpine forest ecosystem services in a warmer world, our findings also imply heighted conservation concern for vulnerable northern lineages facing range contractions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]