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Copyright of Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian & Latin American Economic History is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The paper develops a model in which the relation between the real exchange rate and the real wage, in the context of conflictive income distribution, is made explicit. It is noted that the central bank tries to regulate the distributive relation exchange rate and real wages through the changes in the interest rate. The theoretical point is that, under certain circumstances, a relatively depreciated or high level of the real exchange rate might reduce real wages and have a negative impact on economic growth. The paper also provides some evidence for the Argentine case, and suggests that the Classical Developmentalist elasticity pessimism seems, in the case of Argentina, to be validated. Also, the use of the exchange rate as an instrument to bolster redistribution away from the working class, and to promote investment and growth is also not born in the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Australian economy experienced very frequent and sizeable terms of trade shocks. These shocks at times were more pronounced than commodity exporting developing countries and disproportionately benefited the extreme top end of income distribution. Did they derail overall economic progress? Circumstantial evidence suggests that they did not, but hard econometric evidence appears to be rare. In this paper, I revisit the Australian resource curse question from a long‐run perspective. Using time series data on commodity prices, real GDP, real wages, non‐farm GDP, manufacturing share of GDP, and manufacturing share of employment covering the period 1900 to 2007, I find very little evidence of a resource curse. Commodity booms in general and positive agricultural price shocks in particular appear to have impacted the rest of the economy positively both in short‐ and long‐run. The positive effect is primarily led by expansion in manufacturing. This is perhaps reflective of trade protection, labour and credit market flexibility, and relatively open skilled migration in Australia especially during the post‐war period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship among employment, real wage, and output growth in Canada. Design/methodology/approach – Using quarterly data from 1994q2 to 2012q3, this paper employs a vector autoregressive framework while allowing for the derivation of output from its historical maximum over the sample period to affect future output, employment, and real wage growth dynamics. Findings – There are three main findings: output growth is significant in predicting employment growth and vice versa; real wage growth neither Granger causes employment growth nor output growth, but employment growth Granger causes real wage growth; and non-linear dynamics, captured by the current depth regression (CDR) effect term, through the sign as well as the magnitude of output changes, are important in characterizing the evolution of the relationship among output, employment, and real wage growth. Practical implications – The findings of this research have significant implications for policy makers. Output and employment growth are important in forecasting each other in Canada. In contrast to the mainstream theory, real growth is insignificant in explaining the future dynamics of employment in Canada. Policies need to be formulated to encourage the growth of employment to ensure sustain output growth. Originality/value – This study examines empirically the real output, real wage, and employment link in Canada. This study uses the most recently revised GDP data arising from the 2012 Historical Revision of the Canadian System of National Accounts. The econometric methodology involves the standard vector autoregression (VAR) model to which the authors introduce non-linear dynamics through a term that controls for the deviation of output from its preceding historical maximum: the CDR effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What was the contribution of intercontinental trade to the development of the European early modern economies? Previous attempts to answer this question have focused on static measures of the weight of trade in the aggregate economy at a given point in time, or on the comparison of the income of specific imperial nations just before and after the loss of their overseas empire. These static accounting approaches are inappropriate if dynamic and spillover effects are at work, as seems likely. In this paper, I use a panel dataset of 10 countries in a dynamic model that allows for spillover effects, multiple channels of causality, persistence, and country-specific fixed effects. Using this dynamic model, simulations suggest that in the counterfactual absence of intercontinental trade, rates of early modern economic growth and urbanization would have been moderately to substantially lower. For the four main long-distance traders, by 1800, the real wage was, depending on the country, 6.1-22.7 % higher, and urbanization was 4.0-11.7 percentage points higher, than they would have otherwise been. For some countries, the effect was quite pronounced: in The Netherlands between 1600 and 1750, for instance, intercontinental trade was responsible for most of the observed increase in real wages and for a large share of the observed increase in urbanization. At the same time, countries which did not engage in long-distance trade would have had real wage increases in the order of 5.4-17.8 % and urbanization increases of 2.2-3.2 percentage points, should they have done so at the same level as the four main traders. Intercontinental trade appears to have played an important role for all nations that engaged in it, with the exception of France. These conclusions stand in contrast to the earlier literature that uses a partial equilibrium and static accounting approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we set up a model of economic growth which deals with Keynesian unemployment, from non-Walrasian/Keynesian perspectives, investigate the possibility of persistent “growth cycles” generated and analyze the effects of flexibility of (real) wages on the long-run economic stability. Consequently, we reach the conclusion that flexibility of wages has an adverse effect on the macroeconomic stability and that reductions of wages have negative impacts on the attainment of “full-employment.” [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]