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Time-series of allele frequencies are a useful and unique set of data to determine the strength of natural selection on the background of genetic drift. Technically, the selection coefficient is estimated by means of a likelihood function built under the hypothesis that the available trajectory spans a sufficiently large portion of the fitness landscape. Especially for ancient DNA, however, often only one single such trajectories is available and the coverage of the fitness landscape is very limited. In fact, one single trajectory is more representative of a process conditioned both in the initial and in the final condition than of a process free to visit the available fitness landscape. Based on two models of population genetics, here we show how to build a likelihood function for the selection coefficient that takes the statistical peculiarity of single trajectories into account. We show that this conditional likelihood delivers a precise estimate of the selection coefficient also when allele frequencies are close to fixation whereas the unconditioned likelihood fails. Finally, we discuss the fact that the traditional, unconditioned likelihood always delivers an answer, which is often unfalsifiable and appears reasonable also when it is not correct., Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures

Several experimental studies claim to be able to predict the outcome of simple decisions from brain signals measured before subjects are aware of their decision. Often, these studies use multivariate pattern recognition methods with the underlying assumption that the ability to classify the brain signal is equivalent to predict the decision itself. Here we show instead that it is possible to correctly classify a signal even if it does not contain any predictive information about the decision. We first define a simple stochastic model that mimics the random decision process between two equivalent alternatives, and generate a large number of independent trials that contain no choice-predictive information. The trials are first time-locked to the time point of the final event and then classified using standard machine-learning techniques. The resulting classification accuracy is above chance level long before the time point of time-locking. We then analyze the same trials using information theory. We demonstrate that the high classification accuracy is a consequence of time-locking and that its time behavior is simply related to the large relaxation time of the process. We conclude that when time-locking is a crucial step in the analysis of neural activity patterns, both the emergence and the timing of the classification accuracy are affected by structural properties of the network that generates the signal., Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures

Recent experimental results on the effect of miRNA on the decay of its target mRNA have been analyzed against a previously hypothesized single molecule degradation pathway. According to that hypothesis, the silencing complex (miRISC) first interacts with its target mRNA and then recruits the protein complexes associated with NOT1 and PAN3 to trigger deadenylation (and subsequent degradation) of the target mRNA. Our analysis of the experimental decay patterns allowed us to refine the structure of the degradation pathways at the single molecule level. Surprisingly, we found that if the previously hypothesized network was correct, only about 7% of the target mRNA would be regulated by the miRNA mechanism, which is inconsistent with the available knowledge. Based on systematic data analysis, we propose the alternative hypothesis that NOT1 interacts with miRISC before binding to the target mRNA. Moreover, we show that when miRISC binds alone to the target mRNA, the mRNA is degraded more slowly, probably through a deadenylation-independent pathway. The new biochemical pathway we propose both fits the data and paves the way for new experimental work to identify new interactions., Comment: It contains also the Supplementary Materials as appendix A