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The process of chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) is quantified by evaluating a Z-spectra, where CEST signal quantification and Z-spectra fitting have been widely used to distinguish the contributions from multiple origins. Based on the exchange-dependent relaxation rate in the rotating frame (Rex), this paper introduces an additional pathway to quantitative separation of CEST effect. The proposed Rex-line-fit method is solved by a multi-pool model and presents the advantage of only being dependent of the specific parameters (solute concentration, solute‐water exchange rate, solute transverse relaxation, and irradiation power). Herein we show that both solute‐water exchange rate and solute concentration monotonously vary with Rex for Amide, Guanidino, NOE and MT, which has the potential to assist in solving quantitative separation of CEST effect. Furthermore, we achieve Rex imaging of Amide, Guanidino, NOE and MT, which may provide direct insight into the dependency of measurable CEST effects on underlying parameters such as the exchange rate and solute concentration, as well as the solute transverse relaxation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multivariate time series have more complex and high‐dimensional characteristics, which makes it difficult to analyze and predict the data accurately. In this paper, a new multivariate time series prediction method is proposed. This method is a generative adversarial networks (GAN) method based on Fourier transform and bi‐directional gated recurrent unit (Bi‐GRU). First, the Fourier transform is utilized to extend the data features, which helps the GAN to better learn the distributional features of the original data. Second, in order to guide the model to fully learn the distribution of the original time series data, Bi‐GRU is introduced as the generator of GAN. To solve the problems of mode collapse and gradient vanishing that exist in GAN, Wasserstein distance is used as the loss function of GAN. Finally, the proposed method is used for the prediction of air quality, stock price and RMB exchange rate. The experimental results show that the model can effectively predict the trend of the time series compared with the other nine baseline models. It significantly improves the accuracy and flexibility of multivariate time series forecasting and provides new ideas and methods for accurate time series forecasting in industrial, financial and environmental fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We empirically study the relationship between currency excess returns and current account uncertainty, measured as forecast dispersion. We find that investment currencies deliver low returns, whereas funding currencies offer a hedge when current account uncertainty is unexpectedly high. Moreover, an increase in current account uncertainty is associated with higher expected future excess returns on investment currencies. This mechanism is consistent with the recent advances in exchange rate theory based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance. Funding: A. Krecetovs thanks the Brevan Howard Centre at Imperial College London for financial support. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4949. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents that the ratio of residential-to-nonresidential investment is a strong in-sample and out-of-sample predictor for the dollar up to 12 quarters. The predictability is robust to a battery of additional checks and holds for other G10 currencies. We explain the predictability in an analytical model with time-varying housing preference, productivity, and volatility. In the model, the U.S. housing investment share is higher during periods with higher growth and lower uncertainty, corresponding to lower future nontradable prices, dollar index, and excess returns. We find strong empirical support for the channel. Alternative explanations, including the business and financial cycle, find less empirical support. This paper was accepted by David Sraer, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4932. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the empirical link between remittance inflows and India's economic growth, particularly emphasizing the association's asymmetries as the prior studies were neglected. Therefore, it formulated a growth function that assesses the non-linear influence of the remittance inflows on economic growth by endogenizing the gross fixed capital formation, official exchange rate, and export growth. Relying on the annual time series data for India, the work uses the Non-Linear Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model to expose the non-linear influence of the remittance inflows on economic growth by controlling the gross fixed capital formation, official exchange rate, and export growth for the period ranges from 1975 to 2021. The outcomes show the presence of the long-run relationship among the variables vector. Further, the results indicate an asymmetric impact of remittance inflows on economic growth both in the long run and short run. Moreover, the findings reveal a rise in the remittance inflows leads to an increase in economic growth, whereas a fall in the remittance inflows ends up in a reduction of economic growth. Additionally, the outcomes show a negative and significant impact of gross fixed capital formation and official exchange rate on economic growth in the long run. It also observed an insignificant negative influence of export growth on the specified growth model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) represents a degree to which changes in nominal exchange rates are transmitted into domestic prices. European Union (EU) countries have experienced the unprecedented inflationary pressure due to high geopolitical risk events. As such, understanding the ERPT plays a crucial role. This study provides a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of ERPT to import prices for 16 EU countries from January 2006 to December 2022. Using the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, our findings confirm the linear, rather than nonlinear, ERPT pattern characterized by a diminishing trend over time in the EU countries. However, the degree of pass-through varies depending on country characteristics. Specifically, countries that are highly dependent on imports experience a larger ERPT. Furthermore, the degree of pass-through to import prices is more significant and persistent during periods of high uncertainty. These findings are robust across various robust analyses including sub periods. Our findings provide that help policymakers evaluate the trade-offs between exchange rate risks and macroeconomic stability during times of high uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Obstetric fistula is incident and prevalent in low-income countries. Globally, about 100,000 women develop fistula annually. In Mozambique, more than 2,000 fistulas are reported annually. A national strategy to combat obstetric fistula has been implemented in Mozambique from 2012–2020. This strategy is under review, making it opportune to generate evidence that reflects the course of the strategy implemented to subsidize/optimize the definition of priorities of the new strategy to achieve universal health coverage. In Mozambique, information on the costs incurred to treat fistula is scarce. This study aims to estimate the mean unit cost of repair/treatment of simple and complex obstetric fistula in Mozambique. Methods: We carried out a retrospective evaluation, from the provider's perspective, using the Ingredient and Stepdown approaches. The mean unit cost was obtained by the sum of individual and shared ingredients to treat fistula. Cost dimensions included Direct Medical Costs (personnel, drugs, and supplies), Overhead and Capital Costs (administration and capital assets' costs, respectively). The average exchange rate was USD 1 = MZN 61.47. Data were collected in secondary, tertiary, and quaternary hospitals of Zambézia and Nampula provinces in 2021. Costs borne by patients and their families and loss of productivity were not included. Results: The mean cost for Simple Obstetric Fistula repair was MZN 14,937.21 (USD 243) and Complex Obstetric Fistula was MZN 21,145.68 (USD 344) per person operated. Regardless of the type of fistula, the repair cost was MZN 18,072.18 (USD 294). Conclusion: Without neglecting that prevention is better than plasty, the results show feasible levels of fistula repair costs for mobilization of funds. For the estimated 2,000 fistulas reported annually, the government needs an average MZN 36,144,360 (USD 588,000). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To understand the status quo of infectious disease reports automatically exchanged by secondary and above medical institutions in Sichuan province based on regional platform, and provide basis for improving the work on automatic exchange of infectious disease information reports in the next step. Methods Check and calculate the success rates of exchange and rough exchange through the system, the use of the infectious disease reporting management related systems was investigated by questionnaire survey, T - test and chi - square test were used for comparison between groups, and spearman correlation analysis was used for correlation. Results From July to September 2023, the exchange success rate in 68 medical institutions was 92. 67%, and the success rate of crude exchange reached 95. 87%. Compared with other level medical institutions, municipal medical institutions had higher success rate of exchange and crude exchange, and longer time interval to realize automatic exchange. The exchange success rate was positively correlated with the time interval to realize automatic exchange (r = 0. 44, P < 0. 001) and the crude exchange success rate (r = 0. 51, P < 0. 001). More than 90% of the institutions had HIS, LIS, PACS. 77. 94% of the institutions could automatically generate the report card, more than 80% had the report card management and information statistics query functions. 73. 53% realized the automatic early warning of infectious disease report card, and 25% of the institutions reported the card forcibly after the early warning. 88. 24% felt that the workload of infectious disease report was reduced after automatic exchange. Conclusion The success rate of automatic exchange and the success rate of crude exchange in medical institutions were higher overall, municipal medical institutions were higher than other levels of medical institutions. The construction rate of basic information system in medical institutions was high, but the basic functions of automatic exchange were not perfect. Automatic exchange improves the efficiency of reporting to some extent, but it still could not completely replace manual reporting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustained community spread of influenza viruses relies on efficient person-to-person transmission. Current experimental transmission systems do not mimic environmental conditions (e.g., air exchange rates, flow patterns), host behaviors, or exposure durations relevant to real-world settings. Therefore, results from these traditional systems may not be representative of influenza virus transmission in humans. To address this pitfall, we developed a close-range transmission setup that implements a play-based scenario and used it to investigate the impact of ventilation rates on transmission. In this setup, four immunologically naive recipient ferrets were exposed to a donor ferret infected with a genetically barcoded 2009 H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) for 4 h. The ferrets interacted in a shared space that included toys, similar to a childcare setting. Transmission efficiency was assessed under low and high ventilation, with air exchange rates of ~1.3 h-1 and 23 h-1, respectively. Transmission efficiencies observed in three independent replicate studies were similar between ventilation conditions. The presence of infectious virus or viral RNA on surfaces and in air throughout the exposure area was also not impacted by the ventilation rate. While high viral genetic diversity in donor ferret nasal washes was maintained during infection, recipient ferret nasal washes displayed low diversity, revealing a narrow transmission bottleneck regardless of ventilation rate. Examining the frequency and duration of ferret physical touches revealed no link between these interactions and a successful transmission event. Our findings indicate that exposures characterized by frequent, close-range interactions and the presence of fomites can overcome the benefits of increased ventilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertain fractional differential equations (UFDEs) are excellent tools for describing complicated dynamic systems. This study analyzes the valuation problems of currency options based on UFDE under the optimistic value criterion. Firstly, a new uncertain fractional currency model is formulated to describe the dynamics of the foreign exchange rate. Then, the pricing formulae of European, American, and Asian currency options are obtained under the optimistic value criterion. Numerical simulations are performed to discuss the properties of the option prices with respect to some parameters. Finally, a real-world example is provided to show that the uncertain fractional currency model is superior to the classical stochastic model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The currency exchange rate is a crucial link between all countries related to economic and trade activities. With increasing volatility, exchange rate fluctuations have become frequent under the combined effects of global economic uncertainty and political risks. Consequently, accurate exchange rate prediction is significant in managing financial risks and economic instability. In recent years, the Transformer models have attracted attention in the field of time series analysis. Transformer models, such as Informer and TFT (Temporal Fusion Transformer), have also been extensively studied. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the Transformer, Informer, and TFT models based on four exchange rate datasets: NZD/USD, NZD/CNY, NZD/GBP, and NZD/AUD. The results indicate that the TFT model has achieved the highest accuracy in exchange rate prediction, with an R2 value of up to 0.94 and the lowest RMSE and MAE errors. However, the Informer model offers faster training and convergence speeds than the TFT and Transformer, making it more efficient. Furthermore, our experiments on the TFT model demonstrate that integrating the VIX index can enhance the accuracy of exchange rate predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The disconnect between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals has been extensively discussed in the literature. It nonetheless continues to pose theoretical and empirical challenges in the literature. This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and its fundamentals. This study used the monetary model of exchange rate determination developed in the 1970s. The study used the TAR to estimate the exchange change rate behaviour in response to variations in monetary variables. We found that the exchange rates respond to the interest rate differential, consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. Furthermore, in all the regimes, the sizes of coefficients are different, which shows that the exchange rate behaviour is non-linear (asymmetric). While the impact of the interest rate differential in regime 1 and 2 leads to exchange rates appreciating although in regime 2 the results are insignificant, this occurs when the exchange rates fluctuate below 0.87 percentage points. In regime 3, on average, a marginal increase in interest rate deferential leads to an exchange rate depreciation. In some instances, the exchange rates respond to the monetary variables' changes in line with the predictions of the monetary theory of exchange rate determination. An increase in interest rates in some instances leads to an improvement in the value of the exchange rate. However, the conditions are not constant—they vary depending on the state of exchange rate fluctuation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a novel data set comprising bid–ask quotes for foreign exchange swaps from individual dealers, we examine the consequences of the Swiss National Bank's sudden termination of the Swiss franc/euro minimum exchange rate in 2015 on other pegged currencies. Our findings indicate a spillover effect as dealer banks began to reassess the risk associated with unexpected peg terminations, subsequently leading to wider bid–ask spreads for pegged currencies. This highlights that, even in strong economies, the credibility of a currency peg is influenced not only by the actions of the respective central bank but also by the stability of other pegged currencies. This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01117. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, due to the existence of severe sanctions and obstacles governing the sale of oil, it has led to an increase in the exchange rate, and on the other hand, the decrease in foreign exchange resources has led to a decrease in the government’s income, and the limitation of the income due to the financial policies of the government has made it difficult to meet the expenses of the government does not give and as a result the budget deficit has caused many problems in the economic system of the government. The government’s budget deficit leads to borrowing from the central bank or banks, and ultimately to the growth of the monetary-liquidity base, inflation and a decrease in the value of the national currency against foreign currencies. In this article, the effects of optimal monetary policy on these variables are investigated and the existing research gap is closed. Based on this, the main goal of this research is to investigate the effect of optimal monetary policy on controlling inflation and exchange rate. The current research method is practical. The period of the current research was 1357 to 1398. To estimate the model, the self-regression econometric model with distributed interruptions or ARDL was used in Microfit 5 software space. With the increase in money supply and the lack of proportional and symmetrical increase in the production of goods, the tendency to import goods increases, and in this case, pressure is put on the current price of the exchange rate and the causes of its increase are provided. Optimal monetary policies have a positive and significant effect on controlling inflation and exchange rate. Optimal monetary policies have a positive and significant effect on controlling the exchange rate. As a result, according to the results of the model, the liquidity situation and income inequality have worsened during the period under review, and as a result, the monetary policy in the country was not effectiv [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Agricultural Economics & Social Sciences is the property of Egyptian National Agricultural Library (ENAL) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using a two-step approach GMM, this study examines the short- and long-term effects of fiscal deficit on the economic growth of 42 Sub-Saharan African nations between 2011 and 2021. The World Development Index, the most reliable source, is where the panel data is taken from. Using the Levin-Lin-Chu and Hadri LM tests for unit root, it was determined that there is no risk of a random walk in the data. The study's findings indicate that while the fiscal deficit has short-term, positive, and significant benefits on the economic growth of SSA countries, it has long-term, negative repercussions. According to the system GMM's results, an increase in the fiscal deficit of SSA countries is linked to a short-term increase in economic growth of 0.036 percent, while an increase in the fiscal deficit of one percentage point is linked to a long-term decline in economic growth of SSA countries of 0.013 percent, holding all other factors constant. The study's findings also showed that the budget deficit has a larger positive short-run coefficient than a negative long-run coefficient. The study also revealed that while real effective exchange rates and inflation short-term hinder economic growth, gross fixed capital creation and real interest rates are the primary drivers of economic expansion. Long-term economic growth in the SSA countries is also found to be positively and significantly impacted by gross fixed capital formation. According to the study, SSA nations should manage their fiscal deficits and, in the long run, provide more funds for gross fixed capital development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remittances have become a significant component of international capital flows, with millions of migrants sending billions of dollars back to their home countries annually. However, the way these outflows affect macroeconomic variables has not received sufficient attention in the literature, especially in the context of varying levels of financial development. Using time series data from 1987 to 2022 for the United Kingdom, this study examines the macroeconomic effects of remittance outflows and financial development. Our baseline estimation using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model reveals heterogeneous impacts, as remittance outflows adversely affect economic growth but improve exchange rates. We find remittances do not have a significant effect on inflation or bank rates. The moderating effect of financial development analysis reveals a similar outcome. Our results suggest governments should consider stimulus policies that support investment in productive sectors to improve macroeconomic indicators and facilitate financial inclusion to enhance the adoption of growth strategies that promote remittances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the relationship among trade openness, poverty, and human capital development in the pursuit of sustainable development across a panel of ten ECOWAS economies over a 34-year period (1987–2020). Specifically, it examines the roles of trade openness, poverty, and human capital development in sustainable development, while also exploring the moderating role of trade openness on the poverty-sustainable development relationship within the ECOWAS region. To conduct this analysis, the study employs panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) using both the Pool Mean Group (PMG) estimator and Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) techniques, taking into account cross-sectional dependence, cointegration, and other relevant diagnostic tests. The findings indicate that poverty has a consistent negative long-run impact on sustainable development, while human capital is positively associated with sustainability over the long term. Trade openness lacks a significant relationship with sustainability in both the short and long run. Inflation is insignificantly related to sustainability. Exchange rates demonstrate mixed effects. In terms of moderation, trade openness positively and significantly moderates the poverty-sustainability relationship in the long run but not the short run. Robustness testing using the AMG and P-OLS models further validates the significant positive impact of human capital and the insignificant effect of trade openness on sustainable development. Given poverty's significant negative association and human capital's positive link with sustainable development, the findings suggest the need for integrated policy mixes prioritizing multidimensional poverty reduction and human capability enhancement to promote sustainability objectives across both short- and long-term horizons in ECOWAS countries. Furthermore, prudent management of exchange rates and well-designed trade policies should complement these efforts to mitigate potential risks and harness any benefits for sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to reveal the effects of exchange rate ($) and energy (oil) prices on livestock product (red meat, milk, eggs) and input (feed) prices in Türkiye through Path Analysis. The material of this study consisted of monthly average exchange rate and energy prices vs. fattening feed, milk feed, and egg feed prices, and producer prices of red meat, milk, and eggs for the years 2010-2023. According to the findings of this study, one unit increase in the exchange rate resulted in a total increase of 0.98, 0.99 and 0.98 units in the prices of fattening, milk and egg feed, respectively; a total increase of 0.93, 0.98 and 0.97 units in red meat, milk and egg prices, respectively (P<0.05). It was determined that a one unit increase in energy prices caused a total increase of 0.09, 0.09 and 0.11 units in fattening, milk and egg feed prices, respectively (P<0.05). However, energy prices did not affect livestock product prices (P>0.05). As a result, it has been observed that the exchange rate affects, particularly, input and livestock product prices, whereas energy prices affect only input costs in Türkiye. Therefore, it is thought that reducing external dependence on energy and upward fluctuations in exchange rates will make significant contributions to the reduction of input costs and product prices in animal husbandry, increase consumption rates and profitability of producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Woody plants display some photosynthetic activity in stems, but the biological role of stem photosynthesis and the specific contributions of bark and wood to carbon uptake and oxygen evolution remain poorly understood.We aimed to elucidate the functional characteristics of chloroplasts in stems of different ages in Fraxinus ornus. Our investigation employed diverse experimental approaches, including microsensor technology to assess oxygen production rates in whole stem, bark, and wood separately. Additionally, we utilized fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) to characterize the relative abundance of photosystems I and II (PSI : PSII chlorophyll ratio) in bark and wood.Our findings revealed light‐induced increases in O2 production in whole stem, bark, and wood. We present the radial profile of O2 production in F. ornus stems, demonstrating the capability of stem chloroplasts to perform light‐dependent electron transport. Younger stems exhibited higher light‐induced O2 production and dark respiration rates than older ones.While bark emerged as the primary contributor to net O2 production under light conditions, our data underscored that wood chloroplasts are also photosynthetically active. The FLIM analysis unveiled a lower PSI abundance in wood than in bark, suggesting stem chloroplasts are not only active but also acclimate to the spectral composition of light reaching inner compartments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, the level of influence of the posts published by famous people on social networks on the formation of the cryptocurrency exchange rate is investigated. Celebrities who are familiar with the financial industry, especially with the cryptocurrency market, or are somehow connected to a certain cryptocurrency, such as Elon Musk with Dogecoin, are chosen as experts whose influence through social media posts on cryptocurrency rates is examined. This research is conducted based on statistical analysis. Real cryptocurrency exchange rate forecasts for the selected time period and predicted ones for the same period, obtained using three algorithms, are utilized as a dataset. This paper uses methods such as statistical hypotheses regarding the significance of Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and Pearson’s correlation. It is confirmed that the posts by famous people on social networks significantly affect the exchange rates of cryptocurrencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the causes of structural change in Brazil, through the rise and the fall of the manufacturing industry, and the consequences for total factor productivity and manufacturing labour productivity, from 1947 to 2021. Our results show that the industrialization of the Brazilian productive structure is positively associated with expansions in infrastructure investments and with the pursuit of a competitive real exchange rate, that is, with policies oriented towards economic development. Our findings also indicate that such variables exert a direct influence on total factor productivity and manufacturing labour productivity and an indirect influence through their impacts on the Brazilian productive structure. Our conclusions suggest that an important cause of the Brazilian premature deindustrialization, and then of its poor performance in terms of total factor productivity and manufacturing labour productivity, is the adoption of policies not oriented towards economic development adopted since the neoliberal reforms of the 1980s and 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commodity dependence is a long-lasting feature of South American economies, with far reaching effects in economic and social performance. This paper focuses in the interaction between commodity prices and real exchange rate and in its effects on productive capabilities. New-Developmentalist approach has labeled that situation as a "Dutch-Disease". I propose a Balance of Payment Constraint Growth model especially designed to address some specificities of commodity dependence that allow to theoretically analyze this issue. Empirical tests are conducted for the period 1970-2017. It is found that price surges are damaging for productive capabilities only in the context of the dismantling of state intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the dynamics of foreign exchange rates is of paramount importance to economic policy makers for developing countries like India that depend on foreign exchange to meet a large part of their import obligations. This paper uses the concepts of entropy to study the regularity/irregularity of the returns from the Indian Foreign exchange (forex) markets particularly during periods of economic instability. We use the Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy statistics which measure the level of repeatability in the data are used to quantify the randomness in the forex returns for four major currencies namely the US Dollar, the British pound, the EURO and the Japanese Yen with respect to the Indian Rupee from the time period 2006 to 2021. These statistics are chosen as they are both statistical measures for assessing the randomness or regularity of time series data and enable researchers to objectively evaluate the degree of randomness present in the returns series and understand the crucial underlying patters or behaviors. In this research we look at two periods of major financial upheavals, the subprime crisis also known as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) during 2006-2007 and the recent Covid-19 pandemic during 2020-2021. Our empirical results overwhelmingly confirm our working hypothesis that regularity in the returns of the major Indian foreign exchange rates increases during times of financial crisis. This is evidenced by a decrease in the values of the sample entropy and approximate entropy before and after/during the financial crisis period for the majority of the exchange rates. Our empirical results also show that Sample Entropy is a better measure of regularity than Approximate Entropy for the Indian forex rates which is in agreement with the theoretical predictions. Understanding the returns from foreign exchange rates during financial crises has important policy implications for various stakeholders, including market participants, policymakers, and regulators. It enables them to formulate better risk management and hedging strategies. It also helps policy makers in crisis management and contingency planning and safeguard the stability of the financial system. Exchange rate movements are interconnected across global markets, and crises often have cross-border implications. Collaborating on crisis management strategies across countries can help foster stability in international markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International tourism has an impact on the external constraint to growth. Therefore, the relationship between tourism and the current account balance (CAB) was analyzed for Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay by means of a cointegration analysis using autoregressive models with distributed lags. Actual output and the real effective exchange rate were used as control variables. The existence of cointegration was corroborated for Argentina and Brazil since tourism has a stable negative relationship with the CAB. In the case of Chile, there is evidence of cointegration for the set of variables, although foreign exchange flows from international tourism do not seem to affect the CAB balance. Finally, no conclusive proof of cointegration was obtained for Uruguay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to develop a model of the real equilibrium CZK/EUR exchange rate with all relevant explanatory variables. Emphasis will be placed on examining the longest possible time horizon, with a period of real convergence, but also economic stagnation. The model is based on the theoretical BEER approach using a cointegration or error correction model that distinguishes between short-term and long-term relationships. The results show that the Czech koruna strengthens when the productivity differential, terms of trade differential or gross fixed capital formation increase, while the koruna weakens when the VIX index representing global risk aversion increases. For the real interest rate differential, the hypothesis that the koruna strengthens in the short run during the improvement but weakens in the long run probably due to the country's risk premium, was confirmed. Moreover, it turned out that the start of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing led to strengthening of the Czech koruna, while the start of the CNB's foreign exchange interventions in 2013 led to weakening of the Czech koruna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new test to detect the change-point in the quasi-autocorrelation coefficient (QAC) structure of a simple linear model with heavy-tailed series was developed. It is more general than previous approaches to the change-point problem in that it allows for the process with innovations in the domain of the attraction of a stable law with index κ (0 < κ < 2). Since the existing methods for QAC change detection are not satisfactory, we converted QAC change to mean change through the moving window method, which greatly improved the efficiency. Thus, the aim of this paper was to construct a ratio-typed test based on M-estimation for the testing of mean change. Under regular conditions, the asymptotic distribution under the no change null hypothesis was functional of a Wiener process, not that of a Lévy stable process. The divergent rate under the alternative hypothesis was also given. The simulation results demonstrate that the performances of our proposed tests were outstanding. Finally, the theoretical results were applied to an analysis of daily USD/CNY exchange rates with respect to QAC change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article introduces a rational expectations model that explains exchange rate dynamics and the predictability of forecast errors using private (aggregated via order flow) and public (probabilities of a binary event) information. We test the model for the periods leading up to the presidential impeachment vote in Brazil, the Brexit Referendum, and Donald Trump's election in 2016. Proxies of the physical probabilities of these events reveal that they are a crucial source of pricing information for the BRL, GBP, and MXN currency pairs with the US dollar. They also explain forecast errors. The information content of order flow changes before and after an actual regime change resolves uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The US economy is going through a challenging transition, with a lowered GDP growth forecast of 2.3% for 2024. Some sectors, such as housing and manufacturing, are struggling, but this does not necessarily indicate a broader economic downturn. The rise in the unemployment rate is concentrated among younger workers, reducing the risk of a negative cycle. Inflation is expected to remain low, and the Federal Reserve is predicted to cut interest rates. Overall, the short-term growth outlook is moderate, with factors such as household balance sheets and equipment spending supporting the economy. Consumer spending has slowed due to inflation, but this is expected to moderate in the coming months. The job market remains strong, although job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate may inch higher. The Federal Reserve is considering cutting interest rates, and fiscal policy is expected to remain stable. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Atlantic Review of Economics / Revista Atlántica de Economía is the property of Colegio de Economistas de La Coruna and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study aims to analyze the effect of banking stability, exchange rates, and external debt on economic growth in BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) during the period 2011-2020. The data used in this study is panel data from five BRICS countries, obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The method used is a panel data regression model using the Fixed Effect method. This model makes it possible to account for the fixed effects of time as well as the fixed effects of individual states in regression analysis. The results of the analysis show that banking stability has a significant negative influence on economic growth in BRICS countries. On the other hand, exchange rates and external debt have a significant positive impact on economic growth. These findings indicate that policies that promote banking stability, prudent exchange rate management, and effective use of external debt can support sustainable economic growth in BRICS countries. The results of the analysis show that banking stability has a significant negative influence on economic growth in BRICS countries. On the other hand, exchange rates and external debt have a significant positive impact on economic growth. These findings indicate that policies that promote banking stability, prudent exchange rate management, and effective use of external debt can support sustainable economic growth in BRICS countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically investigates the influence exerted by the real exchange rate (RER) on investments in 81 sectors of Brazil's manufacturing industry, between 2007 and 2018. The work has a number of novel features. First, a more disaggregated database is employed than that commonly found in the existing literature. Second, the article's empirical findings indicate the existence of two competing channels through which a competitive RER may influence sectoral investments, that is: (i) positively, by enhanced exports and (ii) negatively, via more expensive imported inputs. Third, our empirical results also indicate that the RER's influence is more significant in sectors with a lower mark-up, which means that a competitive RER—caused by expanding revenues from exports, offsets a lack of internal funds to finance new investments. Fourth, we tested the existence of an import penetration channel. The results reveal that a competitive RER increases investments as consumers substitute imported goods with domestic ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article proposes a typology of inflation regimes based on the Post-Keynesian and structuralist literature. We identify three separate regimes: the low, moderate and high inflation regimes. Hyperinflation is also defined and described. Each regime presents different characteristics. We identify the key role played by the distributive conflict between workers and capitalists in all the regimes, the role played by the indexation of wages on domestic prices in the moderate and high inflation regimes and the specific roles played by the widespread indexation on a short-term basis in the high inflation regime. Hyperinflation is explained by self-fulfilling prophecies about exchange rate variations and by the rejection of the domestic currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Contemporary Accounting Research is the property of Canadian Academic Accounting Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the present paper, we investigate the complex dynamics arising from a behavioral exchange rate discontinuous model with heterogeneous agents. Unlike previous works explaining the emergence of chaos in the exchange rate models as the resulting of nonlinearity, our model is able to produce endogenous exchange rate dynamics due to the presence of discontinuity induced by a sentiment index, which affects the way investors take their trading decisions. In particular, it affects the level of optimism/pessimism of fundamentalists regarding their perception on the value of fundamental. Moreover, it also affects the strength to which one kind of chartists places her buying/selling orders. We show that our model, represented by a two-dimensional discontinuous map, has the ability to produce interesting endogenous exchange rate dynamics. In addition, when each component of the map is buffeted by a stochastic component, the model closely replicates the stylized facts of the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY exchange rate markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to examine the budget deficit–inflation relationship, considering financial sector development and broad money supply as moderating and mediating variables. For this purpose, a panel data set ranging from polled mean group, mean group, and dynamic fixed effect estimation techniques are employed. Hence, the pooled mean group estimation result reveals that the budget deficit is inflationary. In addition, GDP per capita, the effective exchange rate, financial sector development, regulatory quality, and the interaction term of the budget deficit and financial sector development are significant determinants of inflation. The study further examines the role of the broad money supply as a mediating variable in the budget deficit–inflation relationship. The structural equation model results and the mediation effect tests confirmed a partial mediation effect of the broad money supply on the budget deficit–inflation relationship. Based on the findings, it is recommended to strengthen regulatory quality, reduce broad money supply, and improve financial sector development. By doing so, we can create a more stable and efficient economy that benefits everyone in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The foreign exchange rate market is one of the most liquid and efficient. In this study, we address the efficient analysis of this market by verifying the day-of-the-week effect with fractal analysis. The presence of fractality was evident in the return series of each day and when analyzing an upward trend and a downward trend. The econometric models showed that the day-of-the-week effect in the studied currencies did not align with previous studies. However, analyzing the Hurst exponent of each day revealed that there a weekday effect in the fractal dimension. Thirty main world currencies from all continents were analyzed, showing weekday effects according to their fractal behavior. These results show a form of market inefficiency, as the returns or price variations of each day for the analyzed currencies should have behaved similarly and tended towards random walks. This fractal day-of-the-week effect in world currencies allows us to generate investment strategies and to better complement or support buying and selling decisions on certain days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The success of an investment portfolio is not only related to its yield, but is also influenced by market risks, especially the contagion risks that may exist between assets. Therefore, effective portfolio optimization requires first studying the risk contagion relationship between financial assets. We selected a total of six financial assets from different stock and exchange rate markets as the research objects, and explored the risk contagion relationships of various assets in the investment portfolio through Vine Copula. Research has shown that there is often a structural mutation in one or some assets of an investment portfolio, leading to significant fluctuations in investment returns. The Vine Copula model can effectively measure the risk contagion between assets caused by asset structural mutations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how the independence of monetary policy changes in situations where the interest rate differential between domestic and foreign rates inverts, utilizing the trilemma indices. For analysis, this paper uses the trilemma indices developed by Kim et al. (2017) to analyze the relationship between the monetary policy independence index and the other two trilemma indices, namely the capital account openness index and the exchange rate stability index, across 45 countries from 2002 to 2018. The analysis reveals that the trilemma's validity is contingent. In particular, no statistically significant negative correlation was found between the monetary policy independence index and exchange rate stability index during periods of interest rate differential inversion. A positive correlation emerges between exchange rate stability and the independence of monetary policy, particularly when the inverted interest rate differential exceeds a certain threshold. This situation, where the exchange rate remains stable despite low domestic interest rates, implies that the central bank is effectively managing monetary policy to appropriately respond to economic conditions, which is reflected in the monetary policy independence index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ASCT2 (alanine serine cysteine transporter 2), a member of the solute carrier 1 family, mediates Na+-dependent exchange of small neutral amino acids across cell membranes. ASCT2 was shown to be highly expressed in tumor cells, making it a promising target for anticancer therapies. In this study, we explored the binding mechanism of the high-affinity competitive inhibitor L-cis hydroxyproline biphenyl ester (Lc-BPE) with ASCT2, using electrophysiological and rapid kinetic methods. Our investigations reveal that Lc-BPE binding requires one or two Na+ ions initially bound to the apo-transporter with high affinity, with Na1 site occupancy being more critical for inhibitor binding. In contrast to the amino acid substrate bound form, the final, third Na+ ion cannot bind, due to distortion of its binding site (Na2), thus preventing the formation of a translocation-competent complex. Based on the rapid kinetic analysis, the application of Lc-BPE generated outward transient currents, indicating that despite its net neutral nature, the binding of Lc-BPE in ASCT2 is weakly electrogenic, most likely because of asymmetric charge distribution within the amino acid moiety of the inhibitor. The preincubation with Lc-BPE also led to a decrease of the turnover rate of substrate exchange and a delay in the activation of substrate-induced anion current, indicating relatively slow Lc-BPE dissociation kinetics. Overall, our results provide new insight into the mechanism of binding of a prototypical competitive inhibitor to the ASCT transporters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the different financial sectors, the modeling and forecasting of log-returns of cryptocurrency have received considerable attention. Numerous statistical models have been put forward to analyze the log returns of the cryptocurrency. However, as per our knowingness and immense literature search, we did not find published shreds of evidence about modeling cryptocurrency's log-returns while manipulating trigonometric-based statistical models. This paper provides a worthwhile endeavor to fill out this amusing research gap by manipulating a new trigonometric-based statistical methodology called the generalized sine- G family. Utilizing the generalized sine- G , a statistical model called the generalized sine-Logistic distribution is introduced. The generalized sine-Logistic distribution is applied for modeling the log-returns of two cryptocurrencies. Using certain decisive tools, it is observed that the generalized sine-Logistic is the best-suited distribution for modeling the given log-returns data sets. Additionally, this study uses various sophisticated and robust econometric techniques, such as the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Subset Selection, Markov Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MSGARCH), and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) model with different distributions, to predict (in-sample) the log-returns data sets. The effectiveness of each method is assessed through a popular loss function known as the root-mean-square error (RMSE). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of financial development-international trade nexus and its implication for growth, studies have yet to look at the impact of new financial development indicators developed by the International Monetary Fund on international trade performance in Nigeria. This is one of the few attempts made to examine the elasticity of trade to financial development, given the inconclusive findings that permeate the literature. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of financial development on aggregate trade performance in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2021. The empirical framework is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction model. The findings revealed that (i) The ARDL bound test revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium association between the variables; (ii) We find that a unit improvement in financial development induces a 1.1%-1.2% increase in trade performance in the short-run short term and a 9.7% in the long-run; (iii) The results show that a 1% increase in the exchange rate (depreciation) leads to a 0.01% improvement in trade performance in the short-term. The findings have important policy implications. The paper concludes that financial development contributes to trade performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number studies have been conducted to establish the relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic variables, such as inflation. Subsequently, economists constructed a time-varying uncertainty index, which is referred to as the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). This study aims to identify the effect of time-varying uncertainty subject to inflation in ASEAN. Using yearly dataset of the WUI as a proxy for the global level of domestic uncertainty, inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and exchange rate from 2015 to 2019 for all ASEAN Member States (AMS), a twostep System Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM) was employed to estimate the dynamic relationship and the short- and long-run effect of the socioeconomic uncertainty proxies with respect to inflation in ASEAN. The results indicated that uncertainty had positively and significantly affect inflation in the short-run estimation, along with GDP. Meanwhile, in the long-run estimation, it was only GDP that affected inflation, rather than uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The aim of this study is to delve into the intricate the mechanism through which alterations in currency exchange rates give rise to shifts in inflation rates, while taking into careful consideration the country's economic cycle. In order to accomplish this objective, we used a dataset that spanned from 1 January 1999 to 1 July 2023, focusing our analytical lens on three specific geographic areas, namely the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Canada. In our pursuit of understanding this complex relationship, we employed the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model. Our research outcomes can be succinctly encapsulated as follows: in the initial stages, particularly during phases characterized by robust economic growth, the transmission of exchange rate effects onto inflation levels appeared to exhibit a partial impact across all geographic areas under examination. However, during periods marked by economic downturns, both the United Kingdom and Canada displayed a distinctly more comprehensive transmission of these effects. Moreover, the prevailing projections for the forthcoming time horizon, across all the countries encompassed by our study, strongly indicate the onset of an expansionary phase that is projected to extend over a span of 25 months. Lastly, concerning the implications of unexpected disturbances or shocks, it is noteworthy that the response of exchange rates to inflation induced shocks was neither immediate nor as pronounced as the corresponding reaction of inflation to sudden shifts in exchange rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic theory argues that foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt are expected to enhance economic growth in any given economy. Consequently, this study (i) investigated the relationship between foreign direct investment, external debt servicing, and economic growth in Nigeria; (ii) investigated how foreign direct investment and external debt impact Nigeria's economic growth; and (iii) analyzed the direction of causality among the three macroeconomic variables. Descriptive statistics, time series autoregressive distributive lag, and robust Granger causality tests were adopted as the estimating techniques. The results showed that from 2011 to 2022, Nigeria's FDI continued to decline, Nigeria's external debt servicing continued to grow on an upward trajectory, and the growth of the GDP has been meandering. ARDL analysis results confirmed that the lag of FDI and current exchange rate exert positive effects on current economic growth in Nigeria, with a 1% increase in FDI, current external debt, and current exchange rate increasing growth by 1.49%, 1.58%, and 0.02%, respectively. Results from the Granger causality showed that FDI and external debt do Granger cause GDP in Nigeria. Policymakers should focus on prudent debt management practices and strive to reduce domestic debt levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan exports sophisticated capital goods. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Japanese companies have offshored the production of lower-end goods and parts and components to Asian countries. Because of this, several researchers argued that a weaker yen no longer stimulates machinery exports much because an increase in Japanese exports increases parts and components imports from overseas Asian subsidiaries. This paper finds that, after the GFC, a weaker yen no longer increases Japanese machinery exports to Asia but continues to stimulate exports outside of Asia. Thus, the weaker yen since 2020 does not help Asian firms to import vital Japanese capital goods but does increase the profitability of Japanese manufacturers and their exports to non-Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]