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This article analyzes the "politics of experts"--or the struggle between scientific advisers to gain visibility and influence--in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and the UK. Modifying classic studies of policy communities of interest groups and civil servants, we classify relevant policy experts in the two countries into the following categories: "core insiders," "specialist insiders," "peripheral insiders," and "outsiders." Within these categories, we distinguish between "high-profile" and "low-profile" experts, depending on media exposure. The comparison between the UK and Italian cases helps to identify how actors interpret and follow formal and informal "rules of the game." We identify a contest between experts to influence policy with reference to two competing "rules of the game." The first set of rules comes from government, while the second comes from science advice principles. These rules collide, such as when governments require secrecy and nonconfrontation and scientists expect transparency and independent criticism. Therefore, experts face dilemmas regarding which rules to favor: some accept the limits to their behavior to ensure insider access; others are free to criticize the policies that they struggle to influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the outbreak of a disease caused by a pathogen with unknown characteristics, the uncertainty of its progression parameters can be reduced by devising methods that, based on rational assumptions, exploit available information to provide actionable insights. In this study, performed a few (~6) weeks into the outbreak of COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2), one of the most important disease parameters, the average time-to-recovery, was calculated using data publicly available on the internet (daily reported cases of confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries), and fed into an algorithm that matches confirmed cases with deaths and recoveries. Unmatched cases were adjusted based on the matched cases calculation. The mean time-to-recovery, calculated from all globally reported cases, was found to be 18.01 days (SD 3.31 days) for the matched cases and 18.29 days (SD 2.73 days) taking into consideration the adjusted unmatched cases as well. The proposed method used limited data and provided experimental results in the same region as clinical studies published several months later. This indicates that the proposed method, combined with expert knowledge and informed calculated assumptions, could provide a meaningful calculated average time-to-recovery figure, which can be used as an evidence-based estimation to support containment and mitigation policy decisions, even at the very early stages of an outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study goal to scrutinize the influences of the COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment in five selected European economies. To this end, the study uses a Fourier causality test for the period of December-2019 to December-2020. In Z-test results, Germany, Spain, and the UK have a significant positive change in unemployment due to COVID-19. The finding shows that COVID-19 cases cause unemployment for Germany, Italy, and the UK. Moreover, in terms of deaths, COVID-19 also causes unemployment in Italy and UK. Overall, the study's outcomes highlight that the pandemic increases the unemployment rate robustly in the mostly European economies. That is one of the rare negative effects of the virus on the European labor market. Novel COVID-19 findings provide a reliable guide to the future policy implication for the labor market. An active labor market policy will be needed to be in front of the world urgently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, in France, people cleared the shelves of butter; in Italy, it was pasta; in Great Britain, it was chicken. While there may be cultural disagreement on what is essential, clearly, in times of crisis, consumers stockpile the 'essentials'. We address the problem of "panic buying", which is characterized by increasing demand in the face of diminishing inventory. In such cases, prices may hike and firms (retailers) selling the high-demand product are quantity takers, in terms of supply, and price setters. We consider a manufacturer who sells a scarce product to a single retailer. The retailer seeks to maximize her profit, while in contrast, the manufacturer pursues a social objective of regulating and lowering the amount that the end customer (consumer) pays (including the cost of traveling to obtain the scarce product). By analyzing the competition between the two parties, retailer and manufacturer, we find that even when the regulator (manufacturer) makes a significant social commitment, neither subsidizing the retailer nor subsidizing the consumers necessarily curbs price hikes. Furthermore, there is a threshold ratio (i.e., proportion of the end price subsidized by the regulator) that determines the minimal budget that the regulator would need to allocate in order for subsidization to make a difference to consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by a social media "infodemic": an overabundance of information whose authenticity may not always be guaranteed. With the potential to lead individuals to harmful decisions for the society, this infodemic represents a severe threat to information security, public health and democracy. In this paper, we assess the interplay between the infodemic and specific aspects of the pandemic, such as the number of cases, the strictness of containment measures, and the news media coverage. We perform a comparative study on three countries that employed different managements of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020—namely Italy, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand. We first analyze the three countries from an epidemiological perspective to characterize the impact of the pandemic and the strictness of the restrictions adopted. Then, we collect a total of 6 million posts from Facebook to describe user news consumption behaviors with respect to the reliability of such posts. Finally, we quantify the relationship between the number of posts published in each of the three countries and the number of confirmed cases, the strictness of the restrictions adopted, and the online news media coverage about the pandemic. Our results show that posts referring to reliable sources are consistently predominant in the news circulation, and that users engage more with reliable posts rather than with posts referring to questionable sources. Furthermore, our modelling results suggest that factors related to the epidemiological and informational ecosystems can serve as proxies to assess the evolution of the infodemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aim: COVID-19 is a highly contagious infectious disease, and it has affected people's daily life and has raised great concern for governments and public health officials. Forecasting its future behavior may be useful for allocating medical resources and defining effective strategies for disease control, etc. Materials and Methods: The collected data was the cumulative and the absolute number of confirmed, death, and recovered cases of COVID-19 from February 20 to July 03, 2021. We used hierarchical cluster analysis. To forecast the future behavior of COVID-19, the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), Automatic Forecasting Procedure (Prophet), Naive, Seasonal Naive (s-Naive), boosted ARIMA, and boosted Prophet models were used. Results: The results of clustering showed a similar behavior of coronavirus in Iran and other countries such as France, Russia, Turkey, United Kingdom (UK), Argentina, Colombia, Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, Mexico, and Indonesia. It also revealed similar patterns of SARS-CoV-2 for the same countries in six groups. Results showed that XGBoost models' family had higher accuracy than other models. Conclusion: In Iran, COVID-19 showed similar behavior patterns compared to the studied developed countries. The family of XGBoost models showed practical results and high precision in forecasting behavior patterns of the virus. Concerning the rapid spread of the virus worldwide, these models can be used to forecast the behavior patterns of SARS-CoV-2. Preventing the spread of the coronavirus, controlling the disease, and breaking down its chain necessitates community assistance, and in this mission, the role of statisticians cannot be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant change in the types of teaching infrastructure used in higher education. This article examines how the use of commercial digital platforms for educational purposes impacted on teaching practices. At the same time, it shines a light on the experiences and (legal) perceptions of educators as an essential category of stakeholders within the EU copyright legal framework. Against the background of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the study reflects on the process of ‘platformisation’ of education and delves into copyright-related aspects of the online teaching and learning environments. The study is based on the presumption that the pandemic-induced transformation of education would require institutional adjustments as well as an enhanced level of copyright awareness among educators. It provides data and evidence based on an empirical study conducted in 2021 surveying over 200 educators in the UK, Italy, and the Netherlands. The results, presented in this article, point at several problematic aspects in relation to ‘platformised’ educational practices and materials, including a low awareness and misled perceptions on copyright legal rules and an increasing role of digital commercial platforms as factual regulators of the higher education sector. Keywords: copyright law, higher education, platformisation, distance learning, exceptions and limitations, content moderation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID‐19 spread throughout the world during 2020, bringing an increase in global financial risk. We use connectedness network to investigate the risk contagion among global stock markets during the COVID‐19 pandemic and analyse its source. Furthermore, we use spectrum analysis to explore the risk contagion effects on different frequency bands, which allows us to explore its speed and channels. We find that the United Kingdom and Italy are core transmitters of risks, and connectedness is mainly driven by low‐frequency components, which demonstrates that the risks are spread by affecting supply chains in global markets and investors' long‐term expectations for the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Healthcare workers have had the longest and most direct exposure to COVID-19 and consequently may suffer from poor mental health. We conducted one of the first repeated multi-country analysis of the mental wellbeing of medical doctors (n = 5,275) at two timepoints during the COVID-19 pandemic (June 2020 and November/December 2020) to understand the prevalence of anxiety and depression, as well as associated risk factors. Rates of anxiety and depression were highest in Italy (24.6% and 20.1%, June 2020), second highest in Catalonia (15.9% and 17.4%, June 2020), and lowest in the UK (11.7% and 13.7%, June 2020). Across all countries, higher risk of anxiety and depression symptoms were found among women, individuals below 60 years old, those feeling vulnerable/exposed at work, and those reporting normal/below-normal health. We did not find systematic differences in mental health measures between the two rounds of data collection, hence we cannot discard that the mental health repercussions of the pandemic are persistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the health care systems in Europe are considered the global benchmark, European nations were severely affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This manuscript aimed to examine the strategies implemented to combat the COVID-19 pandemic by France, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany, and Russia and their outcomes in terms of the number of cases, testing, and deaths. This is the first review of its kind that extensively analyzes the preparedness, mitigation, and response strategies against the COVID-19 pandemic adopted by these nations. This paper further suggests a strategic preparedness model for future pandemics. From the analysis, we found that a decentralized approach, prompt decision-making and timely execution, coordination between local health authorities, and public participation in the implementation of strategies could substantially reduce the case fatality rate. Nations with a high percentage of gross domestic product invested in the health sector, as well as more nurses, physicians, hospital beds, intensive care unit beds, and ventilators, better managed the pandemic. Instead, nations that postponed their pandemic response by delaying tracking, tracing, testing, quarantine, and lockdown were badly affected. The lessons learned from the present pandemic could be used as a guide to prepare for further pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new Coronavirus Disease 19, officially known as COVID-19, originated in China in 2019 and has since spread worldwide. We presented an age-structured Susceptible-Latent-Mild-Critical-Removed (SLMCR) compartmental model of COVID-19 disease transmission with nonlinear incidence during the pandemic period. We provided the model calibration to estimate parameters with day-wise COVID-19 data, i.e., reported cases by worldometer from 15th February to 30th March 2020 in six high-burden countries, including Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada. We estimate transmission rates for each country and found that the country with the highest transmission rate is Spain, which may increase the new cases and deaths than the other countries. We found that saturation infection negatively impacted the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in all the six high-burden countries. The study used a sensitivity analysis to identify the most critical parameters through the partial rank correlation coefficient method. We found that the transmission rate of COVID-19 had the most significant influence on prevalence. The prediction of new cases in COVID-19 until 30th April 2020 using the developed model was also provided with recommendations to control strategies of COVID-19. We also found that adults are more susceptible to infection than both children and older people in all six countries. However, in Italy, Spain, the UK, and Canada, older people show more susceptibility to infection than children, opposite to the case in Australia and the USA. The information generated from this study would be helpful to the decision-makers of various organisations across the world, including the Ministry of Health in Australia, Italy, Spain, the USA, the UK, and Canada, to control COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since December 2019, the world has been facing one of the most critical health threats of the last decades. In March 2021, the official number of deaths passed 2.6 million worldwide. Most countries have developed policies to control the disease. Nevertheless, countries have experienced different outcomes related to their various adapted policies. Complementing our first report, in this article, we report our findings of comparing the policies adopted to combat coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iran, with those from nine selected countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy, to draw evidence-informed policy lessons. Methods: This is a qualitative study conducted based on document analysis related to COVID-19 policies in Iran and nine selected countries. Using a deductive approach, data were extracted and analyzed based on the components of the WHO Building Blocks Framework. Finally, we compared the Iranian policies with the nine selected countries. Results: Documents analysis revealed a spectrum of policies, which have led to a variety of outcomes. Based on our findings, three main strategies (widespread testing, comprehensive contact tracing, and timely measures) were the most effective directions to combat COVID-19. Conclusion: The experience of the first and second waves of COVID-19 showed that the risk of coronavirus is serious and will continue until a vaccine or decisive treatment is achieved. Therefore, countries are required to adopt appropriate and tailored policies to deal with this crisis effectively. Applying the experiences from the previous waves is essential for more efficient performance in the likely upcoming waves. INSET: 260. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background To stop the spread of the new coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19), many countries had completely locked down. This lockdown restricted the everyday life of the affected residents and changed their mobility pattern, but its effects on sleep pattern were largely unknown. Methods Here, utilizing one of the largest crowdsourced database (Sleep as Android), we analyzed the sleep pattern of 25 217 users with 1 352 513 sleep records between 1 January and 29 April 2020 in the US and 16 European countries (Germany, UK, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Belgium, Hungary, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Czech, Sweden, Austria, Poland and Switzerland) with more than 100 records in all days of 2020. Results During the COVID-19 pandemic, the sleeping pattern before and after the country-level lockdown largely differed. The subjects increased their sleep duration by an average of 11.3 to 18.6 min on weekday nights, except Denmark (4.9 min) and Finland (7.1 min). In addition, subjects form all 16 European countries delayed their sleep onset from 10.7 min (Sweden) to 29.6 min (Austria). Conclusion During the COVID-19 pandemic, residents in the US and 16 European countries delayed their bedtime and slept longer than usual. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The dissemination of scientific data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continually builds but, in April 2020, could not keep up with the spread of the disease. Through technology, surgeons in Italy and the UK, representing both peak and pre-peak infective time zones, were able to communicate so that the urgent lessons on the huge expected demands of care learned in Italy could be brought to the UK in advance. This paper specifically discusses the issues related to paediatric surgery, currently under-reported in the literature. Methods The aim of this paper is to conjoin experience from the field to provide a framework for a safe assessment and treatment of paediatric patients by adopting a systemic approach aimed at reducing the risk of contamination. We reviewed the processes and good practices that were undertaken in contexts of emergency such as in Italy and the UK and then adapted them within the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) framework to provide an assessment of how to reorganize the services in order to cope with an unexpected situation. The SEIPS model is the adopted theoretical framework, which allows to analyse the system in its main components with a human factors and ergonomics (HFE) perspective. Results The results introduce some of the good practices and recommendations developed during the emergency in the surgical scenario with a focus on the paediatric patients. They represent the lessons learned from the combination of the little existing evidence of literature and the experience from surgical teams who responded in an impromptu and unrehearsed way. Conclusions Lessons learned from the frontline 'on the fly' during COVID-19 emergency should be consolidated and taken into the future. In order to prepare proactively for the next phases and get ahead of the curve of these hospital accesses, there is a need for a risk assessment of the new clinical pathways with a multidisciplinary approach centred on HFE with the adoption of the SEIPS model and an involvement of all the surgical teams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major stressor for the psychological health of people worldwide. In the UK, the COVID19-Psychological Research Consortium Study (C19PRC) launched to evaluate the psychological impact of COVID-19 in the general population and its implications. The project was then extended to Italy and several other countries. This article provides an overview of the Italian C19PRC study and its replication of two specific findings from the UK C19PRC. In the first part, the relationship between anxiety and somatic symptomatology is examined. In the second part, we analyze the association between several factors and psychological health outcomes: depression/anxiety, traumatic stress, COVID-19 anxiety. In line with the study conducted in the UK, an online survey was administered to the adult Italian general population. The sample included 1038 respondents (age, mean = 49.94, SD = 16.14, 51.15% females) taken from four regions: Lombardia, Veneto, Lazio, and Campania. The relationship between predictors and outcomes was evaluated by means of logistic regression models. Somatic indices showed a positive association with anxiety, worse somatic symptoms were associated with mourning a loss of a beloved one due to COVID-19 and with precarious health conditions. Females showed a higher incidence of psychological issues. No differences in anxiety, depression, and traumatic stress were found across regions but the Campania region showed the most severe somatic symptomatology. In the second analysis, the factors associated with more severe psychological outcomes (i.e., anxiety and/or depression, traumatic stress, and COVID-19 related anxiety) were younger age, the presence of minors in the household, traumatic stressors, and precarious health conditions. No differences across regions emerged. The Italian results correspond to the UK findings for anxiety, depression, and traumatic stress. Both in the UK and Italy, the factors associated with worse psychological health were gender (female), younger age, having children, pre-existing health issues (both for oneself or someone close), and the moderate/high perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 within one month. In Italy, unlike the UK, lower household income and having (had) COVID-19 were not associated with poorer mental health. The psychological impact of COVID-19 can last for months; future research should explore all aspects of the psychological burden of COVID-19 in order to implement psychological interventions and promote psychological health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]