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Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings.

Climate change‐induced shifts in snow storage and snowmelt patterns pose risks for adverse impacts to people, the environment, and irrigated agriculture. Existing research primarily focuses on evaluating these risks to irrigated agriculture at large scales, overlooking the role of local context in shaping risk dynamics. Consequently, many "at‐risk" areas lack insight into how adaptation strategies for managing risk through water supply augmentation or water conservation vary across contexts and over time. To address this gap, we develop a comprehensive index for evaluating irrigated agriculture's risk and adaptation potential to changes in snow at local scales and apply it throughout the western US. Results confirm trends toward escalating risk for changes in snow storage and snowmelt patterns over the century. However, substantial heterogeneity in the extent and drivers of risk exists due to variability in localized interactions between declines in water supply (approximately −9% ± 13% by 2100) and increased agricultural demand (approximately 7% ± 5% by 2100). Despite an existing focus on supply augmentation as a critical adaptation strategy to reduce risk, we show its effectiveness diminishes for many areas over time, declining to an average of −54% of historical augmentation potential by 2100. Conserving water through historical changes in crop acreage and type emerges as a more stable adaptation measure, reducing demand by 7%–8% regardless of time. While particularly relevant for higher elevation, less intensive agricultural settings in snowmelt‐dependent regions, findings underscore the need for strategies that support local‐scale, context‐appropriate adaptation to effectively manage escalating risk as snow changes. Plain Language Summary: Climate change‐induced shifts in snow storage and snowmelt patterns threaten water supplies for irrigated agriculture, necessitating adaptation. In agriculture, adaptation requires balancing water supply and demand locally, which is often overlooked in larger‐scale analyses. We develop a framework for evaluating risk and adaptation at local scales in the agricultural sector and apply it to the western US, which is broadly at risk for adverse effects (i.e., physical harm, economic losses, and socio‐cultural damage) if water demand cannot be met. Changing snow dynamics negatively impact many local areas over time, although impacts can often be reduced through supply augmentation and water conservation. While the degree of risk and the effectiveness of these adaptation strategies vary across regions and time, increasing demand and supply volatility diminishes opportunities for supply augmentation. This trend underscores the importance of supporting context‐appropriate adaptations for agricultural communities facing increased risk to their water supplies. Key Points: Changes to snow storage and release patterns pose localized and heterogeneous risks to irrigated agriculture, which accelerate in the futurePotential to manage risk from less snow by augmenting water storage is limited by water supply‐demand imbalances in many locations over timeConserving water by reducing demand could buffer irrigated agriculture against increased risk even as augmentation potential diminishes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most conservation planning to date has focused on protecting today's biodiversity with the assumption that it will be tomorrow's biodiversity. However, modern climate change has already resulted in distributional shifts of some species and is projected to result in many more shifts in the coming decades. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, conservation plans based on current patterns of biodiversity may fail to adequately protect species in the future. One approach for addressing this issue is to focus on conserving a range of abiotic conditions in the conservation-planning process. By doing so, it may be possible to conserve an abiotically diverse "stage" upon which evolution will play out and support many actors (biodiversity). We reviewed the fundamental underpinnings of the concept of conserving the abiotic stage, starting with the early observations of von Humboldt, who mapped the concordance of abiotic conditions and vegetation, and progressing to the concept of the ecological niche. We discuss challenges posed by issues of spatial and temporal scale, the role of biotic drivers of species distributions, and latitudinal and topographic variation in relationships between climate and landform. For example, abiotic conditions are not static, but change through time-albeit at different and often relatively slow rates. In some places, biotic interactions play a substantial role in structuring patterns of biodiversity, meaning that patterns of biodiversity may be less tightly linked to the abiotic stage. Furthermore, abiotic drivers of biodiversity can change with latitude and topographic position, meaning that the abiotic stage may need to be defined differently in different places. We conclude that protecting a diversity of abiotic conditions will likely best conserve biodiversity into the future in places where abiotic drivers of species distributions are strong relative to biotic drivers, where the diversity of abiotic settings will be conserved through time, and where connectivity allows for movement among areas providing different abiotic conditions.