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Fluctuations in the risk of a large increase in unemployment are examined. The analysis compares medium‐term risks—that is, risks at a 3‐year horizon—to those over a 1‐year horizon. The primary approach involves quantile regressions. Robustness exercises examine risks using a logistic regression to model the probability of a large increase in the unemployment rate. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment over the medium term when credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Near‐term risks to unemployment are closely tied to changes in corporate bond spreads or the slope of the yield curve, consistent with research on recession prediction, but these factors do not play a sizable role in medium‐term risks. These results highlight the value of considering different near‐ and medium‐term risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fixed income market of the United States is valued, as of 2021, at USD 46 trillion, almost double that of the domestic stock market, refuting common belief that stocks are a more favoured form of investment. Fixed income instruments however, are also not as secure and risk-free as was traditionally believed; they have ample scope for taking risk and earning higher returns. This paper attempts to study four main factors out of a multitude, that affect bond yields and build 5 models using Ordinary Least Squares Regression to confirm the direction and strength of these relationships. We use two types of Treasury Inflation Protected Yields (short-term and longterm) and three types of Corporate bond Yields (based on varying credit ratings) for the purpose. The influencing factors under study are inflation, policy rates and real economic growth. The paper uses data for a period of 21 years (2000-2021) and concludes its findings using econometrical techniques. We also later test our data for autocorrelation, multicollinearity and a structural break post December, 2019 owing to the pandemic. We find relationships in sync with our established a priori expectations and no structural break. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using US silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations. The Free Silver movement heightened fears the United States would abandon the gold standard and depreciate the dollar. Because Congress, rather than a central bank, set silver coinage policy, silver policy news was likely uncorrelated with economic shocks. Corporate bonds exposed to dollar devaluation returned an additional 1 percent relative to safer bonds when silver risk decreased. Additionally, increased silver coinage risk is associated with an economically significant fall in industrial production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an integrated bond portfolio optimization model based on the popular cash-flow matching and immunization strategies. The underlying mathematical program, not only minimizes the initial required capital for the creation of the least cost bond portfolio, satisfying the connected series of liabilities, but also handles the uncertainty of parallel and symmetric shifts on the term structure of short rates. Moreover, a complete investment policy statement regarding the bond portfolio’s structure, the level of diversification, the amount of transaction costs and the lot sizes, is precisely formulated. We verify the validity of the proposed approach through an illustrative empirical testing application, using a well-diversified investment universe of US and European corporate bonds, as well as international sovereign bonds. The qualitative and technical conclusions we report, document the model’s effectiveness and usability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, using the measures of the credit risk price spread (CRiPS) and the standardized credit risk price spread (S-CRiPS) proposed in Kariya's (A CB (corporate bond) pricing model for deriving default probabilities and recovery rates. Eaton, IMS Collection Series: Festschrift for Professor Morris L., 2013) corporate bond model, we make a comprehensive empirical credit risk analysis on individual corporate bonds (CBs) in the US energy sector, where cross-sectional CB and government bond price data is used with bond attributes. Applying the principal component analysis method to the S-CRiPSs, we also categorize individual CBs into three different groups and study on their characteristics of S-CRiPS fluctuations of each group in association with bond attributes. Secondly, using the market credit rating scheme proposed by Kariya et al. (2014), we make credit-homogeneous groups of CBs and show that our rating scheme is empirically very timely and useful. Thirdly, we derive term structures of default probabilities for each homogeneous group, which reflect the investors' views and perspectives on the future default probabilities or likelihoods implicitly implied by the CB prices for each credit-homogeneous group. Throughout this paper it is observed that our credit risk models and the associated measures for individual CBs work effectively and can timely provide the market credit information evaluated by investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the authors discusses how to improve the accuracy of ratings provided by credit rating agencies (CRAs) and propose an expiring, capped strict liability rule with a contractual component. It mentions that beneficial role of CRAs in financial markets and the problem of systemic risk. It also mentions that how the strict liability rule should be corrected to cope with this problem in the two cases of corporate bonds and structured finance products.

The article focuses on the global financial crisis of 2008 on the aspects of financial industry such as on the interest rate swaps in the U.S. Topics discussed include impact on the LIBOR and corporate bond rate, causes of action affected by the swaps, and effectiveness of the doctrine of frustration of commercial purpose as the financial recovery for the losers in interest rate swaps during the financial crisis.

This Article aims to explore the securitization of intellectual property [hereinafter "IP"], introducing the promise of said financing method in the growing field of IP. In recent years, IP has become a major component of developed economics. Raising funds for research, development, and the creation of new inventions and works of authorship has never been an easy task. This Article, therefore, presents a review of securitization in the field of IP and in doing so makes a few major contributions. It offers a thorough discussion of securitization, its benefits, and its prominence over more traditional methods of financing, such as bank lending, issuance of corporate bonds, and venture capital funding. Next, it offers an account of the current use and scope of securitization in relation to IP assets such as trademarks, copyrights, and patents. The Article also considers the benefits and challenges of securitizing IP and suggests preliminary solutions to these challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]