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Objective:We investigated short- and long-term indicators of malnutrition and diet before and after the community-based ‘Breaking the Cycle of Poverty’ multidisciplinary intervention.Design:A historically and geographically controlled study using data collected in 2013 and 2016. We compared the prevalence of short-term indicators (anaemia, breast-feeding duration and minimum dietary diversity) and long-term indicators (stunting and wasting) in exposed communities at two time points. We then compared these factors in geographic areas exposed or not exposed to intervention. We conducted logistic regression analyses on the 2016 sample to measure associations between living in intervention communities and child growth indicators.Setting:Berd region, a chronic conflict zone near the north-eastern border of Armenia and Azerbaijan.Participants:Children aged 6 months to 6 years.Results:Analyses included data from 2013 comprising 382 children, and data from 2016 comprising 348 children living in communities where the programme was implemented, and 635 children from unexposed communities. Anaemia prevalence in exposed communities was significantly lower in 2016 v. 2013 (10·9 v. 19·1 %, P < 0·01). Minimum dietary diversity (79·0 v. 68·1 %, P < 0·001) and breast-feeding duration (13·0 v. 11·5 months, P < 0·002) were significantly improved in exposed communities. Prevalences of stunting (11·5 v. 10·2 %, P = 0·57) and wasting (4·8 v. 2·0 %, P = 0·07) were not significantly different. Odds of anaemia were significantly lower (OR = 0·24, 95 % CI 0·16, 0·36) in intervention communities.Conclusions:Exposure to a community-based multidisciplinary intervention reduced the rate of anaemia and improved dietary indicators.

In recent years, Turkey has been host to more than two million Syrians seeking refuge. Initially concentrated in the southeastern regions, these refugees now reside throughout the country. There are many questions from policy makers regarding the impact of the population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection on the host community. This paper examines the impact of migrants on regional host communities from a poverty perspective. The paper does not find any negative impacts on poverty for the host community from the increasing population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection as of 2013, despite the high poverty rates experienced among the recent migrants.

Background: Stunting is a major public health problem in Africa and is associated with poor child survival and development. We investigate factors associated to child stunting in three Tanzanian regions. Methods: A cross-sectional two-stage cluster sampling survey was conducted among children aged 6-59 months. The sample included 1360 children aged 6-23 months and 1904 children aged 24-59 months. Descriptive statistics and binary and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used. Results: Our main results are: in the younger group, stunting was associated with male sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.17; confidence interval [CI]: 1.52-3.09), maternal absence (AOR: 1.93; CI: 1.21-3.07) and household diet diversity (AOR: 0.61; CI: 0.41-0.92). Among older children, stunting was associated with male sex (AOR: 1.28; CI: 1.00-1.64), age of 4 and 5 (AOR: 0.71; CI: 0.54-0.95; AOR: 0.60; CI: 0.44-0.83), access to improved water source (AOR: 0.70; CI: 0.52-0.93) and to a functioning water station (AOR: 0.63; CI: 0.40–0.98) and mother breastfeeding (AOR: 1.97; CI: 1.18-3.29). Conclusions: Interventions that increase household wealth and improve water and sanitation conditions should be implemented to reduce stunting. Family planning activities and programmes supporting mothers during pregnancy and lactation can positively affect both newborns and older siblings.

This paper uses a combination of survey questions to instructors and data collected from course syllabi and examinations to examine how the subject of development economics is taught at the undergraduate and masters levels in developing countries, and benchmark this against undergraduate classes in the United States. The study finds that there is considerable heterogeneity in what is considered development economics: there is a narrow core of only a small set of topics such as growth theory, poverty and inequality, human capital, and institutions taught in at least half the classes, with substantial variation in other topics covered. In developing countries, development economics is taught largely as a theoretical subject coupled with case studies, with few courses emphasizing data or empirical methods and findings. This approach contrasts with the approach taken in leading U.S. economics departments and with the evolution of development economics research. The analysis finds that country income per capita, the role of the state in the economy, the education level in the country, and the involvement of the instructor in research are associated with how close a course is to the frontier. The results suggest there are important gaps in how development economics is taught.

Maternal and child undernutrition is a pervasive and detrimental condition in Papua New Guinea. Despite rapid economic growth during the past decade, the stunting rate for children under 5, one of the primary indicators for child undernutrition, was estimated at 46 percent in Papua New Guinea in 2010, stagnant from 44 percent in 2005. This paper analyzes the association between the demographic, socioeconomic, environmental, and health-related factors on nutritional status for children under age 5 years, using the 2009–10 Papua New Guinea Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Stunting and underweight rates sharply rise in the first 24 months. Even in the better-off quintiles, children suffer from suboptimal breastfeeding and complementary food in the first 24 months. In general, the regression results showed that household wealth and geographic location are crucial factors that contribute to children’s malnutrition. More importantly, food quality, measured by protein intake, has significant predicting power on child malnutrition. Broadly increasing socioeconomic status and improving the quantity and quality of caloric intake are general steps to improving health outcomes in Papua New Guinea. In addition, three key areas were identified as critical to alleviating the persistent and detrimental stunting rate in the country: (1) exclusive breastfeeding and complementary food; (2) interventions by health workers; and (3) nutrition education.

This paper aims to provide an analysis of the interaction between human, economic and social development in Romania, in the period 2010-2019. To facilitate the examination of the human development, I have used the human development index and its components, while the economic development has been examined using gross domestic product per capita and its determinants. On the other hand, in the case of social development, I have used the poverty rate and other relevant indicators. The conclusion of the paper is that Romania has been on an upward trend in terms of development in the post-crisis period, but further progress are needed to be able to mitigate the development gaps towards the European Union.

The commodity price boom from 2004–2014 was a huge economic opportunity for African countries abundant in oil, gas and minerals. During this period their government revenues from resources grew by an average of 1.1 billion US$ per year, and economic growth in those same resource-rich countries surged. GDP growth in resource-rich countries accelerated from 4.6% to 5.4% as countries entered a decade long period of sustained high commodity prices. Nonetheless, the paper traces a significant missed opportunity for resource-rich countries in Africa, with little to show for it in the post-boom period, which saw growth collapse far below pre-boom levels, to 2.7% per annum. This paper considers the record of performance during the boom (2004–2014) and subsequent bust from 2015 onwards. The paper describes four main outcomes of the boom: 1) measures of resource dependency rose in Sub-Saharan Africa during the boom, 2) the growth record was strong during the boom but collapsed once commodity prices fell, 3) poverty and inequality rose during the boom despite strong GDP growth, 4) resource-rich countries failed to diversify both their exports and their asset base, leaving them poorly prepared for the end of the boom and a period of lower commodity prices and subsequent COVID-19 pandemic. The conclusions are stark. During this golden decade of sustained high commodity prices and booming revenues, there was limited re-investment of those revenues into building sustainable assets for the future. In other words, countries consumed the boom, rather than successfully transformed their economies. The conclusion is that many resource-rich countries in the region squandered their “once in a generation” opportunity for economic transformation, offering policy lessons that may prove valuable as we enter a new period of elevated commodity prices.

The goal of this paper is to examine how life, already hard before the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic has further deteriorated and compounded the ability of South Africans to access food. Departing, this paper argues that while food insecurity has always been a feature in South Africa, however, COVID-19 has laid bare the ineffective policy response by successive governments over the years. Food insecurity in the country not new, however, the government's ineffective response allowed COVID-19 to intensify poverty and inequality among the most vulnerable. To explore how COVID-19 exacerbated the food insecurity problem in the country, this paper employed a qualitative research approach where secondary data was collected through a review of the literature. From the onset, it became observable that government responses to COVID-19 were not only going to cost jobs and further entrench poverty and inequality, but they were also going to exacerbate the food insecurity problem in the country. Even though government measures to cushion the poor and vulnerable were largely welcomed, they were tainted by corruption, thus clouding their overall effectiveness. It was recommended that the government ought to be proactive rather than reactive in addressing issues around food insecurity

This Paper investigates the impact of remittances on the financial development of countries in the sub-Saharan Africa using panel data analysis from 1985 to 2013. Several Literature has been written on the impact of remittance on growth and on poverty in sub-Saharan Africa however few have critically analysed the impact of remittances on financial development in the region. Using two definitions of financial development, the ratio of money supply to GDP (M2/GDP), and the ratio of domestic credit to GDP (DC/GDP), this paper finds that remittances have a positive effect of financial development. However, the size of the effect depends on definition of financial development that is used in the analysis.

Despite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty reduction than international troops, possibly because they spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed political developments. But they suggest that the reduction in the number of international troops and declining foreign aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends.

Some authors argue that it is enough to focus on growth to achieve lower poverty and greater shared prosperity. Policy-makers are warned that any effort to make growth more equal would be a distraction at best and could even be detrimental. Achieving the World Bank target of a 3% poverty rate by 2030 will require, however, more targeted policies favoring the poorest segments of the population. But what would be these policies? While studies investigating determinants of GDP growth have been numerous, less is known about factors influencing household incomes at the lowest segments of the income distribution. This paper estimates income drivers for the poorest two income quintiles drawing on a panel of 117 countries over the period 1967–2011. Its results suggest that maintaining macroeconomic stability as well as investing in human and physical capital would not only be associated with faster overall economic growth, but also with even faster income growth for the poorest segments of the population. This paper confirms the central role overall economic growth should play in any strategy to reduce poverty. Its results suggest, however, that in addition policy-makers may have instruments to tweak the distribution of the benefits of faster economic growth in favor of the households at the bottom of the income distribution. There thus need not be a trade-off between inequality and growth.

This paper contributes to the methodological literature on the estimation of poverty lines for country poverty comparisons in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper exploits a unique, comprehensive data set of 86 up-to-date urban official extreme and moderate poverty lines across 18 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as the recent values of the national purchasing power parity conversion factors from the 2011 International Comparison Program and a set of harmonized household surveys that are part of the Socio-Economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean project. Because of the dispersion of country-specific poverty lines, the paper concludes that the value of a regional poverty line largely depends on the selected aggregation method, which ends up having a direct impact on the estimation of regional extreme and moderate poverty headcounts.

World Bank's international poverty line of $1.90/day, at 2011 purchasing power parity, is based on a collection of national poverty lines, which were originally used to set the international poverty line of $1.25/day at 2005 purchasing power parity. This paper proposes an approach for estimating a more recent, complete, and comparable collection of national poverty thresholds from reported national poverty rates. The paper presents a set of international poverty lines based on this new database of national poverty lines. In contrast to the lines used to estimate the $1.90 international poverty line, this approach produces national poverty lines that are (1) consistent with national poverty rates, (2) expressed in common units, and (3) provide greater support to the estimated international poverty line. These national poverty lines are used to estimate an extreme international poverty line, and three higher lines that are more relevant for higher-income countries. A key finding provides evidence of the robustness and relevance of the $1.90 international poverty line as a measure of extreme poverty for low-income countries.

This paper discusses the emergence of two new middles since the Cold War, namely middle-income countries and people living above absolute poverty but below a security-from poverty-line. The paper sets out what has happened. It is argued that although there has been substantial economic growth, only a relatively small group of the new middle-income countries have achieved structural transformation, and a large proportion of the 'middle' people sit precariously just above the new global poverty line. The patterns of growth, precarity, and structural change underlying the emergence of the world's two middles are discussed.

Poverty estimates based on enumeration from a single point in time form the cornerstone for much of the literature on poverty. Households are typically interviewed once about their consumption or income, and their wellbeing is assessed from their responses. Global estimates of poverty that aggregate poverty counts from all countries implicitly assume that the counts are comparable. This paper illustrates that this assumption of comparability is potentially invalid when households are interviewed multiple times with repeat visits throughout the year. The paper provides an example from Jordan, where the internationally comparable approach of handling the data from repeat visits yields a poverty rate that is 26 percent greater than the rate that is currently reported as the official estimate. The paper also explores alternative definitions of poverty, informed in part by the psychological and biophysical literature on the long-run effects of short-term exposure to poverty or generally adverse environments. This alternative concept of poverty suggests that the prevalence of those who have been affected by poverty in Jordan during 2010 is more than twice as large as the official 2010 estimate of poverty.

Ethiopia has experienced a growth acceleration over the past decade on the back of an economic strategy emphasizing public infrastructure investment and supported by heterodox macro-financial policies. To analyze the country’s growth performance during 2000–13, the paper employs a neoclassical cross-country System Generalized Method of Moments regression model. The analysis finds that accelerated growth was driven by public infrastructure investment and restrained government consumption, and supported by a conducive external environment. Macroeconomic challenges arising from declining private credit, real currency overvaluation, and relatively high inflation held back some growth. The model accurately predicts Ethiopia’s growth over the period of analysis and is robust to country-specific parameter heterogeneity and alternative infrastructure variables. Looking ahead, model simulations under alternative policy scenarios are indicative that growth may decelerate in the coming decade, making it challenging for Ethiopia to attain its middle-income country target by 2025. Although simulated growth rates do not vary much by policy scenario, the paper discusses some of the emerging risks associated with a continued reliance on the current infrastructure financing model and potential future adjustments.

This paper proposes a new measure of growth in shared prosperity, based on shifts in population shares of different income groups over time. This measure complements the definition of shared prosperity recently proposed by the World Bank in which income growth of the bottom 40 percent is examined. The new measure’s strengths arise from its close ties to countries’ national poverty lines and poverty measures, its focus on inclusion of the vulnerable population, and its identification of a population segment that is neither poor nor at significant risk of falling into poverty. The paper also offers a typology of scenarios for tracking shared prosperity under this measure. It provides illustrative examples using survey data from India, the United States, and Vietnam for the mid-to-late 2000s. Estimation results comparing the two approaches with measuring the evolution of shared prosperity are qualitatively consistent, and suggest that during this period, Vietnam enjoyed the greatest expansion in shared prosperity, followed by India and then the United States.

Recent National Sample Surveys point to significant poverty reduction in India since 2004/05, with a marked acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. This paper enquires into important aspects of income mobility between 2004/05 and 2011/12, based on new statistical methods to convert the three pertinent National Sample Survey rounds into synthetic panels. The analysis draws on the synthetic panels to derive a vulnerability line for India that can be used to separate out a population subgroup comprising non-poor households facing a heightened risk of falling into poverty. The paper documents a strong pattern of upward mobility out of poverty and vulnerability into the middle class, with a noticeable acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. The paper further undertakes a careful investigation into the comparability of the survey rounds, prompted by the observation that fairly significant modifications had been made to survey questionnaires. The findings suggest that changes in questionnaire design have not compromised the comparability of the data.

This study investigates the impact of World Bank development policy lending for public sector governance on the quality of public sector management and institutions. The World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessments (CPIA) are used to measure the latter, the study considers only policy conditions targeted at improvements in those areas. The analysis uses a comprehensive country-year panel data set of aid receiving-countries and finds a significant and inverse U-shaped effect of public sector conditions on the quality of public sector governance. For most observed values in the data, the impact is positive, but it turns negative beyond a value of 80 conditions. At that point, the predicted CPIA score is about 0.25 point (0.3 standard deviation) higher than with zero conditions. For most observations, the number of cumulative conditions is below 80, so the estimated effect of more conditions is generally positive. The analysis corrects for potential endogeneity and shows that the results are robust to sample restrictions, the use of an alternative governance measure, and the inclusion of an extended set of control variables. Falsification tests are also consistent with a causal interpretation from conditions to quality of public sector governance. The paper shows that conditions related to public financial management and tax reforms are more effective than those related to anti-corruption or civil service and administrative reform, where progress requires changing the behavior of a larger set of “deconcentrated” actors. The paper concludes by describing some innovative ideas in the Bank’s ambitious new public sector management strategy that could improve the effectiveness of its support for public sector governance reform.

Kenya has embarked on a highly ambitious decentralization that seeks to fundamentally change the relationship between government and citizens under the 2010 Constitution. The Constitution and new legal framework place a strong emphasis on strengthening public participation. This paper summarizes findings and analysis from five working papers and case studies reviewing opportunities and challenges for strengthening public participation in Kenya’s newly decentralized system. It provides a consolidated list of recommendations emerging from all the working papers.

An extensive literature on poverty traps suggests that high levels of poverty deter growth. However, a seemingly basic implication of the underlying theoretical models, namely that countries suffering from higher levels of poverty should grow less rapidly, has remained untested. A parallel literature has suggested a variety of mechanisms through which inequality may affect growth in opposing directions. Because inequality and poverty are different aspects of the income distribution, inequality can also affect growth through poverty, an indirect channel that has not been explicitly analyzed. This paper contributes to fill both gaps. Using a large cross-country panel data set, it estimates a reduced-form growth equation adding both inequality and poverty to an otherwise standard set of growth determinants. Given inequality, the correlation of growth with poverty is consistently negative. In contrast, given poverty, the correlation of growth with inequality can be positive or negative, depending on the empirical specification and econometric approach used. Yet, the indirect effect of inequality on growth through its correlation with poverty is robustly negative. Closer inspection shows that these results are driven by the sample observations featuring high (but not extremely high) poverty rates. These empirical findings are consistent with the predictions from an analytical framework with learning-by-doing and knowledge spillovers, in which consumers cannot save and invest if their initial endowment is below a minimum consumption level.

The respect of fiscal parameters is supposed to be – according to the official position of the European institutions – the best recipe for granting stability and growth. This optimistic view appears to be in contrast with the recent increase in poverty. The aim of this paper is to individuate the existence of a relation between governments’ decisions about fiscal policy and absolute poverty in 19 Eurozone countries from 2005 to 2017. The attempt is to answer the question as to whether the effect on growth generated by fiscal policy measures can account for the objective of poverty alleviation. The results support the conclusion that absolute poverty increases in the presence of a restrictive fiscal policy, while it decreases in the opposite case. During declining macroeconomic conditions, national governments belonging to the Eurozone appear to be unable to reconcile the objective of sound public finance with that of poverty alleviation.

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between external imbalances and poverty in the Eurozone. The former are registered through the Target2 (T2) settlement mechanism and can be assimilated into changes in official reserves to cover the balance of payments disequilibrium in a fixed exchange rate regime. The presence of T2 discrepancies has led to differences in interest rates and increased distances in general living conditions inside the Eurozone. An empirical investigation implemented in 11 Eurozone countries reveals that T2 is negatively correlated with poverty, therefore allowing for an interpretation that approximates balance of payment crisis models. Results that appear to be robust to several control variables suggest that the policy framework of the Eurozone—in the absence of a compensatory mechanism—should be revised towards centralised fiscal instruments and anti-speculative monetary interventions.

Inclusive growth and development are essential for the sustainability of poverty reduction and growth. Social protection has been promoted as part of the inclusive growth and development agenda by emphasising the positive impacts of social transfers on people’s participation in economic processes. However, the focus on the positive economic impacts of social transfers has led to the neglect of concerns regarding inequality of opportunity. Taking the case of Uganda’s Senior Citizens Grant, this paper critically assesses how inclusive the impacts of social transfers are on economic processes. This is done by examining the extent to which local economic structures interplay with the impacts of the Grant. Based on a qualitative case study design, the analysis reveals that the scheme has unwittingly reinforced spatial patterns of economic exclusion and disadvantage. Recipients in remote areas are more likely to stay or fall back into poverty compared to people in integrated areas. For social transfers to contribute to inclusive growth and development for all, it will be vital to invest in complementary development interventions in economically disadvantaged areas.

Nepal belongs to one of the least developed countries around the world with HDI 157 out of 187 countries (UNDP 2013). Even though poverty in Nepal has reduced to 24.8% in the latest census, the livelihoods of the poorest people living in the remote communities are still vulnerable. Two third of the population still depends on the subsistence agriculture. Similarly, due to lack of job opportunities, youth migration is escalating and Nepal is facing one of the most critical phases of development in its history (Snellinger 2009). Inadequate infrastructure and poor road connectivity are other constraints for the development (World Bank 2011). It follows that, poor access to electricity is another challenge despite the country’s enormous potential for hydroelectricity. Similarly, Nepal has huge prospective for tourism due to its unique natural resources (Bhandari 2004). Nonetheless, Nepal has not benefited optimally from the tourism sector for its self-sustained development. Recently Government of Nepal (2011) has announced diverse policies for accelerating development through proper utilization of local resources. This paper critically evaluates the crucial policies such as Agriculture Development Strategy, National Cooperatives Policy, National Youth Policy, and Micro-hydro for Rural Development, and Tourism for Development. The paper discusses each of these policies’ background; critically analyse the likelihood as well as challenges for fast-tracking development; and finally offers some recommendations based discussion and analysis.

The canonical approach to analyse the poverty impact of growth is based on the comparison of poverty before and after growth. Measurement tools endorsing this approach fail to capture the different experiences of poverty dynamic in the population: there can be groups of the population made poorer or non‐poor made poor by growth. We propose an approach that allows measuring this individual poverty incidence of growth and show how it is related with existing models. We apply our framework to evaluate the poverty impact of growth in Indonesia, by comparing the 1993–2000 with the 2000–07 and 2007–14 growth spells.