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The ACR Committee on Incidental Findings presents recommendations for managing liver lesions that are incidentally detected on CT. These recommendations represent an update from the liver component of the ACR 2010 white paper on managing incidental findings in the pancreas, adrenal glands, kidneys, and liver. The Liver Subcommittee-which included five abdominal radiologists, one hepatologist, and one hepatobiliary surgeon-developed this algorithm. The recommendations draw from published evidence and expert opinion and were finalized by informal iterative consensus. Algorithm branches categorize liver lesions on the basis of patient characteristics and imaging features. They terminate with an assessment of benignity or a specific follow-up recommendation. The algorithm addresses most, but not all, pathologies and clinical scenarios. The goal is to improve the quality of care by providing guidance on how to manage incidentally detected liver lesions.

© 2018, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. The Liver Imaging and Reporting Data System (LI-RADS) is a comprehensive system for standardizing the terminology, technique, interpretation, reporting, and data collection of liver imaging with the overarching goal of improving communication, clinical care, education, and research relating to patients at risk for or diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In 2018, the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) integrated LI-RADS into its clinical practice guidance for the imaging-based diagnosis of HCC. The harmonization between the AASLD and LI-RADS diagnostic imaging criteria required minor modifications to the recently released LI-RADS v2017 guidelines, necessitating a LI-RADS v2018 update. This article provides an overview of the key changes included in LI-RADS v2018 as well as a look at the LI-RADS v2018 diagnostic algorithm and criteria, technical recommendations, and management suggestions. Substantive changes in LI-RADS v2018 are the removal of the requirement for visibility on antecedent surveillance ultrasound for LI-RADS 5 (LR-5) categorization of 10-19 mm observations with nonrim arterial phase hyper-enhancement and nonperipheral “washout”, and adoption of the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network definition of threshold growth (≥ 50% size increase of a mass in ≤ 6 months). Nomenclatural changes in LI-RADS v2018 are the removal of -us and -g as LR-5 qualifiers.

Purpose Preference-based measures are essential for producing quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) that are widely used for economic evaluations. In the absence of such measures, mapping algorithms can be applied to estimate utilities from disease-specific measures. This paper aims to develop mapping algorithms between the MacNew Heart Disease Quality of Life Questionnaire (MacNew) instrument and the English and the US-based EQ-5D-5L value sets. Methods Individuals with heart disease were recruited from six countries: Australia, Canada, Germany, Norway, UK and the US in 2011/12. Both parametric and non-parametric statistical techniques were applied to estimate mapping algorithms that predict utilities for MacNew scores from EQ-5D-5L value sets. The optimal algorithm for each country-specific value set was primarily selected based on root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), and r-squared. Leave-one-out cross-validation was conducted to test the generalizability of each model. Results For both the English and the US value sets, the one-inflated beta regression model consistently performed best in terms of all criteria. Similar results were observed for the cross-validation results. The preferred model explained 59 and 60% for the English and the US value set, respectively. Linear equating provided predicted values that were equivalent to observed values. Conclusions The preferred mapping function enables to predict utilities for MacNew data from the EQ-5D-5L value sets recently developed in England and the US with better accuracy. This allows studies, which have included the MacNew to be used in cost-utility analyses and thus, the comparison of services with interventions across the health system.

Jacob Cohen developed two statistical measures for judging the magnitude of effects produced by an intervention, known as Cohen’s d, appropriate for assessing scaled data, and Cohen’s h, appropriate for assessing proportions. These have been widely employed in evaluating the effectiveness of alcohol, cigarette, marijuana, and other drug prevention efforts. I present two tests to consider the adequacy of using these statistics when applied to drug use prevention programs. I used student survey data from grades 6 through 12 (N = 1,963,964) collected by the Georgia Department of Education between 2015 and 2017 and aggregated at the school level (N = 1036). I calculated effect sizes for an imaginary drug prevention program that (1) reduced 30-day alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana prevalence by 50%; and (2) maintained 30-day prevalence at a pretest level for multiple years. While both approaches to estimating intervention effects represent ideal outcomes for prevention that surpass what is normally observed, Cohen’s statistics failed to reflect the effectiveness of these approaches. I recommend including an alternative method for calculating effect size for judging program outcomes. This alternative method, Relative Reduction in Prevalence (RRP), calculates ratio differences between treatment and control group drug use prevalence at posttest and follow-up, adjusting for differences observed at pretest. RRP allows researchers to state the degree to which an intervention could be viewed as efficacious or effective that can be readily understood by practitioners.

Background: Stroke can produce subtle changes in the brain that may produce symptoms that are too small to lead to a diagnosis. Noting that a lack of diagnosis may bias research estimates, the current study sought to examine the utility of pattern recognition relying on serial assessments of cognition to objectively identify stroke-like patterns of cognitive decline (pattern-detected stroke, p-stroke). Methods: Secondary data analysis was conducted using participants with no reported history of stroke in the Health and Retirement Study, a large (n = 16,113) epidemiological study of cognitive aging among respondents aged 50 years and older that measured episodic memory consistently biennially between 1996 and 2014. Analyses were limited to participants with at least 4 serial measures of episodic memory. Occurrence and date of p-stroke events were identified utilizing pattern recognition to identify stepwise declines in cognition consistent with stroke. Descriptive statistics included the percentage of the population with p-stroke, the mean change in episodic memory resulting in stroke-positive testing, and the mean time between p-stroke and first major diagnosed stroke. Statistical analyses comparing cases of p-stroke with reported major stroke relied on the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC). Longitudinal modeling was utilized to examine rates of change in those with/without major stroke after adjusting for demographics. Results: The pattern recognition protocol identified 7,499 p-strokes that went unreported. On average, individuals with p-stroke declined in episodic memory by 1.986 (SD = 0.023) words at the inferred time of stroke. The resulting pattern recognition protocol was able to identify self-­reported major stroke (AUC = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.57–0.59, p < 0.001). In those with a reported major stroke, p-stroke events were detectable on average 4.963 (4.650–5.275) years (p < 0.001) before diagnosis was first reported. The incidence of p-stroke was 40.23/1,000 (95% CI = 39.40–41.08) person-years. After adjusting for sex, age was associated with the incidence of p-stroke and major stroke at similar rates. Conclusions: This is the first study to propose utilizing pattern recognition to identify the incidence and timing of p-stroke. Further work is warranted examining the clinical utility of pattern recognition in identifying p-stroke in longitudinal cognitive profiles.

Background An estimated US $2.6 billion loss is attributed to health care fraud and abuse. With traditional health care claims verification and reimbursement, the health care provider submits a claim after rendering services to a patient, which is then verified and reimbursed by the payer. However, this process leaves out a critical stakeholder: the patient for whom the services are actually rendered. This lack of patient participation introduces a risk of fraud and abuse. Blockchain technology enables secure data management with transparency, which could mitigate this risk of health care fraud and abuse. Objective The aim of this study is to develop a framework using blockchain to record claims data and transactions in an immutable format and to enable the patient to act as a validating node to help detect and prevent health care fraud and abuse. Methods We developed a health care fraud and abuse blockchain technical framework and prototype using key blockchain tools and application layers including consensus algorithms, smart contracts, tokens, and governance based on digital identity on the Ethereum platform (Ethereum Foundation). Results Our technical framework maps to the claims adjudication process and focuses on Medicare claims, with the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) as the central authority. A prototype of the framework system was developed using the blockchain platform Ethereum (Ethereum Foundation), with its design features, workflow, smart contract functions, system architecture, and software implementation outlined. The software stack used to build the system consisted of a front-end user interface framework, a back-end processing server, and a blockchain network. React was used for the user interface framework, and NodeJS and an Express server were used for the back-end processing server; Solidity was the smart contract language used to interact with a local Ethereum blockchain network. Conclusions The proposed framework and the initial prototype have the potential to improve the health care claims process by using blockchain technology for secure data storage and consensus mechanisms, which make the claims adjudication process more patient-centric for the purposes of identifying and preventing health care fraud and abuse. Future work will focus on the use of synthetic or historic CMS claims data to assess the real-world viability of the framework.

Background Agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently release influenza-like illness incidence data, along with descriptive summaries of simple spatio-temporal patterns and trends. However, public health researchers, government agencies, as well as the general public, are often interested in deeper patterns and insights into how the disease is spreading, with additional context. Analysis by domain experts is needed for deriving such insights from incidence data. Objective Our goal was to develop an automated approach for finding interesting spatio-temporal patterns in the spread of a disease over a large region, such as regions which have specific characteristics (eg, high incidence in a particular week, those which showed a sudden change in incidence) or regions which have significantly different incidence compared to earlier seasons. Methods We developed techniques from the area of transactional data mining for characterizing and finding interesting spatio-temporal patterns in disease spread in an automated manner. A key part of our approach involved using the principle of minimum description length for representing a given target set in terms of combinations of attributes (referred to as clauses); we considered both positive and negative clauses, relaxed descriptions which approximately represent the set, and used integer programming to find such descriptions. Finally, we designed an automated approach, which examines a large space of sets corresponding to different spatio-temporal patterns, and ranks them based on the ratio of their size to their description length (referred to as the compression ratio). Results We applied our methods using minimum description length to find spatio-temporal patterns in the spread of seasonal influenza in the United States using state level influenza-like illness activity indicator data from the CDC. We observed that the compression ratios were over 2.5 for 50% of the chosen sets, when approximate descriptions and negative clauses were allowed. Sets with high compression ratios (eg, over 2.5) corresponded to interesting patterns in the spatio-temporal dynamics of influenza-like illness. Our approach also outperformed description by solution in terms of the compression ratio. Conclusions Our approach, which is an unsupervised machine learning method, can provide new insights into patterns and trends in the disease spread in an automated manner. Our results show that the description complexity is an effective approach for characterizing sets of interest, which can be easily extended to other diseases and regions beyond influenza in the US. Our approach can also be easily adapted for automated generation of narratives.

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 means that government and health services providers have little time to plan and design effective response policies. It is therefore important to quickly provide accurate predictions of how vulnerable geographic regions such as counties are to the spread of this virus. Objective The aim of this study is to develop county-level prediction around near future disease movement for COVID-19 occurrences using publicly available data. Methods We estimated county-level COVID-19 occurrences for the period March 14 to 31, 2020, based on data fused from multiple publicly available sources inclusive of health statistics, demographics, and geographical features. We developed a three-stage model using XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, to quantify the probability of COVID-19 occurrence and estimate the number of potential occurrences for unaffected counties. Finally, these results were combined to predict the county-level risk. This risk was then used as an estimated after-five-day-vulnerability of the county. Results The model predictions showed a sensitivity over 71% and specificity over 94% for models built using data from March 14 to 31, 2020. We found that population, population density, percentage of people aged >70 years, and prevalence of comorbidities play an important role in predicting COVID-19 occurrences. We observed a positive association at the county level between urbanicity and vulnerability to COVID-19. Conclusions The developed model can be used for identification of vulnerable counties and potential data discrepancies. Limited testing facilities and delayed results introduce significant variation in reported cases, which produces a bias in the model.

Background Timely allocation of medical resources for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) requires early detection of regional outbreaks. Internet browsing data may predict case outbreaks in local populations that are yet to be confirmed. Objective We investigated whether search-engine query patterns can help to predict COVID-19 case rates at the state and metropolitan area levels in the United States. Methods We used regional confirmed case data from the New York Times and Google Trends results from 50 states and 166 county-based designated market areas (DMA). We identified search terms whose activity precedes and correlates with confirmed case rates at the national level. We used univariate regression to construct a composite explanatory variable based on best-fitting search queries offset by temporal lags. We measured the raw and z-transformed Pearson correlation and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the explanatory variable with out-of-sample case rate data at the state and DMA levels. Results Predictions were highly correlated with confirmed case rates at the state (mean r=0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.81; median RMSE 1.27, IQR 1.48) and DMA levels (mean r=0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.61; median RMSE 4.38, IQR 1.80), using search data available up to 10 days prior to confirmed case rates. They fit case-rate activity in 49 of 50 states and in 103 of 166 DMA at a significance level of .05. Conclusions Identifiable patterns in search query activity may help to predict emerging regional outbreaks of COVID-19, although they remain vulnerable to stochastic changes in search intensity.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death around the world, being the top cause of cancer-related deaths among men and the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths among women in Singapore. Currently, no screening programme for lung cancer exists in Singapore. Since there is mounting evidence indicating a different epidemiology of lung cancer in Asian countries, including Singapore, compared to the rest of the world, a unique and adaptive approach must be taken for a screening programme to be successful at reducing mortality while maintaining cost-effectiveness and a favourable risk-benefit ratio. This review article promotes the use of low-dose computed tomography of the chest and explores the radiological challenges and future directions.

Influenza results in approximately 3–5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000–500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all

BackgroundPatient travel history can be crucial in evaluating evolving infectious disease events. Such information can be challenging to acquire in electronic health records, as it is often available only in unstructured text.ObjectiveThis study aims to assess the feasibility of annotating and automatically extracting travel history mentions from unstructured clinical documents in the Department of Veterans Affairs across disparate health care facilities and among millions of patients. Information about travel exposure augments existing surveillance applications for increased preparedness in responding quickly to public health threats.MethodsClinical documents related to arboviral disease were annotated following selection using a semiautomated bootstrapping process. Using annotated instances as training data, models were developed to extract from unstructured clinical text any mention of affirmed travel locations outside of the continental United States. Automated text processing models were evaluated, involving machine learning and neural language models for extraction accuracy.ResultsAmong 4584 annotated instances, 2659 (58%) contained an affirmed mention of travel history, while 347 (7.6%) were negated. Interannotator agreement resulted in a document-level Cohen kappa of 0.776. Automated text processing accuracy (F1 85.6, 95% CI 82.5-87.9) and computational burden were acceptable such that the system can provide a rapid screen for public health events.ConclusionsAutomated extraction of patient travel history from clinical documents is feasible for enhanced passive surveillance public health systems. Without such a system, it would usually be necessary to manually review charts to identify recent travel or lack of travel, use an electronic health record that enforces travel history documentation, or ignore this potential source of information altogether. The development of this tool was initially motivated by emergent arboviral diseases. More recently, this system was used in the early phases of response to COVID-19 in the United States, although its utility was limited to a relatively brief window due to the rapid domestic spread of the virus. Such systems may aid future efforts to prevent and contain the spread of infectious diseases.

Purpose: Some studies have suggested that the use of benzodiazepines in the elderly is associated with an increased risk of dementia. However, this association might be due to confounding by indication and reverse causation. To examine the association between benzodiazepine anxiolytic drug use and the risk of dementia, we conducted data mining of a spontaneous reporting database and a large organized database of prescriptions. Methods: Data from the US Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) from the first quarter of 2004 through the end of 2013 and data from the Canada Vigilance Adverse Reaction Online Database from the first quarter of 1965 through the end of 2013 were used for the analyses. The reporting odds ratio (ROR) and information component (IC) were calculated. In addition, prescription sequence symmetry analysis (PSSA) was performed to identify the risk of dementia after using benzodiazepine anxiolytic drugs over the period of January 2006 to May 2014. Results: Benzodiazepine use was found to be associated with dementia in analyses using the FAERS database (ROR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.61-1.64; IC: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.65-0.67) and the Canada Vigilance Adverse Reaction Online Database (ROR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.83-1.94; IC: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.80-0.89). ROR and IC values increased with the duration of action of benzodiazepines. In the PSSA, a significant association was found, with adjusted sequence ratios of 1.24 (1.05-1.45), 1.20 (1.06-1.37), 1.23 (1.11-1.37), 1.34 (1.23-1.47), 1.41 (1.29-1.53), and 1.44 (1.33-1.56) at intervals of 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, respectively. Furthermore, the additional PSSA, in which patients who initiated a new treatment with benzodiazepines and anti-dementia drugs within 12- and 24-month periods were excluded from the analysis, demonstrated significant associations of benzodiazepine use with dementia risk. Conclusion: Multi-methodological approaches using different methods, algorithms, and databases suggest that long-term use of benzodiazepines and long-acting benzodiazepines are strongly associated with an increased risk of dementia.

Purpose Currently, the FDA allows biowaivers for Class I (high solubility and high permeability) and Class III (high solubility and low permeability) compounds of the Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS). Scientific evidence should be provided to support biowaivers for BCS Class I and Class III (high solubility and low permeability) compounds. Methods Data on the effects of excipients on drug permeability are needed to demonstrate that commonly used excipients do not affect the permeability of BCS Class III compounds, which would support the application of biowaivers to Class III compounds. This study was designed to generate such data by assessing the permeability of four BCS Class III compounds and one Class I compound in the presence and absence of five commonly used excipients. Results The permeability of each of the compounds was assessed, at three to five concentrations, with each excipient in two different models: Caco-2 cell monolayers, and in situ rat intestinal perfusion. No substantial increases in the permeability of any of the compounds were observed in the presence of any of the tested excipients in either of the models, with the exception of disruption of Caco-2 cell monolayer integrity by sodium lauryl sulfate at 0.1 mg/ml and higher. Conclusion The results suggest that the absorption of these four BCS Class III compounds would not be greatly affected by the tested excipients. This may have implications in supporting biowaivers for BCS Class III compounds in general.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a technology at the center of many political, economic, and societal debates. This paper formulates a new AI patent search strategy and applies this to provide a landscape analysis of AI innovation dynamics and technology evolution. The paper uses patent analyses, network analyses, and source path link count algorithms to examine AI spatial and temporal trends, cooperation features, cross-organization knowledge flow and technological routes. Results indicate a growing yet concentrated, non-collaborative and multi-path development and protection profile for AI patenting, with cross-organization knowledge flows based mainly on interorganizational knowledge citation links.

Political redistricting is the redrawing of electoral district boundaries. It is normally undertaken to reflect population changes. The process can be abused, in what is called gerrymandering, to favor one party or interest group over another, resulting thereby in broadly undemocratic outcomes that misrepresent the views of the voters. Gerrymandering is especially vexing in the United States. This paper introduces an algorithm, with an implementation, for creating districting plans (whether for political redistricting or for other districting applications). The algorithm, Seed-Fill-Shift-Repair (SFSR), is demonstrated for Congressional redistricting in American states. SFSR is able to create thousands of valid redistricting plans, which may then be used as points of departure for public deliberation regarding how best to redistrict a given polity. The main objectives of this paper are: (i) to present SFSR in a broadly accessible form, including code that implements it and test data, so that it may be used for both civic deliberations by the public and for research purposes. (ii) to make the case for what SFSR essays to do, which is to approach redistricting, and districting generally, from a constraint satisfaction perspective and from the perspective of producing a plurality of feasible solutions that may then serve in subsequent deliberations. To further these goals, we make the code publicly available. The paper presents, for illustration purposes, a corpus of 11,206 valid redistricting plans for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (produced by SFSR), using the 2017 American Community Survey, along with descriptive statistics. Also, the paper presents 1,000 plans for each of the states of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, using the 2018 American Community Survey, along with descriptive statistics on these plans and the computations involved in their creation.

Surveys are commonly used to quantify public opinions of climate change and to inform sustainability policies. However, conducting large-scale population-based surveys is often a difficult task due to time and resource constraints. This paper outlines a machine learning framework—grounded in statistical learning theory and natural language processing—to augment climate change opinion surveys with social media data. The proposed framework maps social media discourse to climate opinion surveys, allowing for discerning the regionally distinct topics and themes that contribute to climate opinions. The analysis reveals significant regional variation in the emergent social media topics associated with climate opinions. Furthermore, significant correlation is identified between social media discourse and climate attitude. However, the dependencies between topic discussion and climate opinion are not always intuitive and often require augmenting the analysis with a topic’s most frequent n-grams and most representative tweets to effectively interpret the relationship. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of how these results can be used in the policy framing process to quickly and effectively understand constituents’ opinions on critical issues.

Even if shared mobility services are encouraged by transportation policies, they remain underused and inefficient transportation modes because they struggle to find their customer base. This paper aims to estimate the potential demand for such services by focusing on individual trips and determining the number of passengers who perform similar trips. Contrary to existing papers, this study focuses on the demand without assuming any specific shared mobility system. The experiment performed on data coming from New York City conducts to cluster more than 85% of the trips. Consequently, shared mobility services such as ride-sharing can find their customer base and, at a long time, to a significantly reduce the number of cars flowing in the city. After a detailed analysis, commonalities in the clusters are identified: regular patterns from one day to the next exist in shared mobility demand. This regularity makes it possible to anticipate the potential shared mobility demand to help transportation suppliers to optimize their operations.

When consumers are faced with the choice of competitive chain facilities that offer exclusive services, current rules do not properly describe the behavior pattern of these consumers. To eliminate the gap between the current rules and this kind of customers behavior pattern, the partially proportional rule with a threshold is proposed in this paper. A leader-follower model for discrete competitive facility location problem is established under the partially proportional rule with a threshold. Combining with the greedy strategy and the 2-opt strategy, a heuristical algorithm (GFA) is designed to solve the follower's problem. By embedding the algorithm (GFA), an improved ranking-based algorithm (IRGA) is proposed to solve the leader-follower model. Numerical tests show that the algorithm proposed in this paper can solve the leader-follower model for discrete competitive facility location problem effectively. The effects of different parameters on the market share captured by the leader firm and the follower firm are analyzed in detail using a quasi-real example. An interesting finding is that in some cases the leader firm does not have a first-mover advantage.

With the convergence of various broadcasting systems, the amount of content available in mobile terminals including IPTV has significantly increased. In this paper, we propose a system that enables users to schedule programs considering both section video clips and full video clips based on the user detection method with similar preference. And, since the system constituting the contents can be classified according to the program, the proposed method can store a program desired by the user, and thus create and schedule a kind of individual channel. Experimental results show that the proposed method has a higher prediction accuracy; this is accomplished by comparing existing channel recommendation methods with the program recommendation methods proposed in this paper.

In this paper, we construct a linear differential system in both continuous time and discrete time to model HIV transmission on the population level. The main question is the determination of parameters based on the posterior information obtained from statistical analysis of the HIV population. We call these parameters dynamic constants in the sense that these constants determine the behavior of the system in various models. There is a long history of using linear or nonlinear dynamic systems to study the HIV population dynamics or other infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the question of determining the dynamic constants in the system has not received much attention. In this paper, we take some initial steps to bridge such a gap. We study the dynamic constants that appear in the linear differential system model in both continuous and discrete time. Our computations are mostly carried out in Matlab.

Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative methods vs. generative methods, and so on. In some of the more popular comparative methods, researchers compare observed epidemiological data from early stages of an outbreak with the output of proposed models to forecast the future trend and prevalence of the pandemic. A significant problem in this area is the lack of standard well-defined evaluation measures to select the best algorithm among different ones, as well as for selecting the best possible configuration for a particular algorithm. Results: In this paper, we present an evaluation framework which allows for combining different features, error measures, and ranking schema to evaluate forecasts. We describe the various epidemic features (Epi-features) included to characterize the output of forecasting methods and provide suitable error measures that could be used to evaluate the accuracy of the methods with respect to these Epi-features. We focus on long-term predictions rather than short-term forecasting and demonstrate the utility of the framework by evaluating six forecasting methods for predicting influenza in the United States. Our results demonstrate that different error measures lead to different rankings even for a single Epi-feature. Further, our experimental analyses show that no single method dominates the rest in predicting all Epi-features, when evaluated across error measures. As an alternative, we provide various consensus ranking schema that summarizes individual rankings, thus accounting for different error measures. We believe that a comprehensive evaluation framework, as presented in this paper, will add value to the computational epidemiology community., Submitted to BMC infectious disease Journal, 2016. Accepted in 2017

MOVES and AERMOD are the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended models for use in project-level transportation conformity and hot-spot analysis. However, the structure and algorithms involved in running MOVES make analyses cumbersome and time-consuming. Likewise, the modeling setup process, including extensive data requirements and required input formats, in AERMOD lead to a high potential for analysis error in dispersion modeling. This study presents a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix, a high-performance emission modeling tool, with the microscale dispersion models CALINE4 and AERMOD. MOVES-Matrix was prepared by iteratively running MOVES across all possible iterations of vehicle source-type, fuel, operating conditions, and environmental parameters to create a huge multi-dimensional emission rate lookup matrix. AERMOD and CALINE4 are connected with MOVES-Matrix in a distributed computing cluster using a series of Python scripts. This streamlined system built on MOVES-Matrix generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as using MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than using the MOVES graphical user interface. Because AERMOD requires detailed meteorological input, which is difficult to obtain, this study also recommends using CALINE4 as a screening tool for identifying the potential area that may exceed air quality standards before using AERMOD (and identifying areas that are exceedingly unlikely to exceed air quality standards). CALINE4 worst case method yields consistently higher concentration results than AERMOD for all comparisons in this paper, as expected given the nature of the meteorological data employed.The paper demonstrates a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix with the CALINE4 and AERMOD. This streamlined system generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as traditional way to use MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, which are regulatory models approved by the U.S. EPA for conformity analysis, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than implementing the MOVES model. We highlighted the potentially significant benefit of using CALINE4 as screening tool for identifying potential area that may exceeds air quality standards before using AERMOD, which requires much more meteorology input than CALINE4.

Traditional methods for monitoring influenza are haphazard and lack fine-grained details regarding the spatial and temporal dynamics of outbreaks. Twitter gives researchers and public health officials an opportunity to examine the spread of influenza in real-time and at multiple geographical scales. In this paper, we introduce an improved framework for monitoring influenza outbreaks using the social media platform Twitter. Relying upon techniques from geographic information science (GIS) and data mining, Twitter messages were collected, filtered, and analyzed for the thirty most populated cities in the United States during the 2013-2014 flu season. The results of this procedure are compared with national, regional, and local flu outbreak reports, revealing a statistically significant correlation between the two data sources. The main contribution of this paper is to introduce a comprehensive data mining process that enhances previous attempts to accurately identify tweets related to influenza. Additionally, geographical information systems allow us to target, filter, and normalize Twitter messages.

The Privacy Rule of Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) requires that clinical documents be stripped of personally identifying information before they can be released to researchers and others. We have been manually annotating clinical text since 2008 in order to test and evaluate an algorithmic clinical text de-identification tool, NLM Scrubber, which we have been developing in parallel. Although HIPAA provides some guidance about what must be de-identified, translating those guidelines into practice is not as straightforward, especially when one deals with free text. As a result we have changed our manual annotation labels and methods six times. This paper explains why we have made those annotation choices, which have been evolved throughout seven years of practice on this field. The aim of this paper is to start a community discussion towards developing standards for clinical text annotation with the end goal of studying and comparing clinical text de-identification systems more accurately.

Physical education in middle school is very important for teenagers, so it is also crucial to understand the differences between PET (Physical Education Teaching) systems in middle schools at home and abroad. The frontier and hotspot of PET research in middle schools at home and abroad are examined in this paper using citation analysis, information visualization, and cluster analysis, as well as CiteSpace software. The findings show that PET method research in China is qualitative, whereas PET method research in middle schools around the world is quantitative evaluation and empirical research. Domestic research hotspots focus on classroom instructional design, whereas foreign countries focus on load identification theory’s application in instructional design. Frontier research in the United States is dispersed and covers a wide range of topics, whereas research in other countries focuses on cognitive load theory. The classification time of this improved algorithm is reduced by 190.97 seconds when compared to the traditional KNN algorithm, and the total time is increased by more than 50%. According to the findings, nonsports or nonsports influencing factors should be given more consideration in the study of adolescent physical fitness decline in China.

In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness, to calculate the Fitness of subnational entities and we apply it to the states of Brazil. In the last decade, several indices were introduced to measure the competitiveness of countries by looking at the complexity of their export basket. Tacchella et al (2012) developed a non-monetary metric called Fitness. In this paper, after an overview about Brazil as a whole and the comparison with the other BRIC countries, we introduce a new methodology based on the Fitness algorithm, called Exogenous Fitness. Combining the results with the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP(p)), we look at the dynamics of the Brazilian states in the Fitness-Income plane. Two regimes are distinguishable: one with high predictability and the other with low predictability, showing a deep analogy with the heterogeneous dynamics of the World countries. Furthermore, we compare the ranking of the Brazilian states according to the Exogenous Fitness with the ranking obtained through two other techniques, namely Endogenous Fitness and Economic Complexity Index.

Purpose: Medical images are important in diagnosing disease and treatment planning. Computer algorithms that describe anatomical structures that highlight regions of interest and remove unnecessary information are collectively known as medical image segmentation algorithms. The quality of these algorithms will directly affect the performance of the following processing steps. There are many studies about the algorithms of medical image segmentation and their applications, but none involved a bibliometric of medical image segmentation. Methods: This bibliometric work investigated the academic publication trends in medical image segmentation technology. These data were collected from the Web of Science (WoS) Core Collection and the Scopus. In the quantitative analysis stage, important visual maps were produced to show publication trends from five different perspectives including annual publications, countries, top authors, publication sources, and keywords. In the qualitative analysis stage, the frequently used methods and research trends in the medical image segmentation field were analyzed from 49 publications with the top annual citation rates. Results: The analysis results showed that the number of publications had increased rapidly by year. The top related countries include the Chinese mainland, the United States, and India. Most of these publications were conference papers, besides there are also some top journals. The research hotspot in this field was deep learning-based medical image segmentation algorithms based on keyword analysis. These publications were divided into three categories: reviews, segmentation algorithm publications, and other relevant publications. Among these three categories, segmentation algorithm publications occupied the vast majority, and deep learning neural network-based algorithm was the research hotspots and frontiers. Conclusions: Through this bibliometric research work, the research hotspot in the medical image segmentation field is uncovered and can point to future research in the field. It can be expected that more researchers will focus their work on deep learning neural network-based medical image segmentation.

One of the most effective approaches to improve resource usage efficiency and degree of resource collecting is to integrate resources. Many studies on the integration of information resources are also available. The search engines are the most well-known. At the same time, this article intends to optimize the integration of British and American literature information resources by employing distributed cloud computing, based on the needs of British and American literature. This research develops a model for the dispersed nature of cloud computing. It optimizes the method by fitting the mathematical model of transmission cost and latency. This article analyzes the weaknesses of the current British and American literature information resource integration and optimizes them for the integration of British and American literature resources. The Random algorithm has the longest delay, according to the results of this paper’s experiments (maximum user weighted distance). The algorithms NPA-PDP and BWF have longer delays than the algorithm Opt. The percentage decline varies between 0.17 percent and 1.11 percent for different algorithms. It demonstrates that the algorithm presented in this work can be used to integrate and maximize information resources from English and American literature.

Studies suggest that manualized, measurement-guided, depression treatment is more efficacious than usual care but impact can wane. Our study among youth with HIV (YWH), aged 12-24 years at US clinical research sites in the International Maternal Pediatric Adolescent AIDS Clinical Trials Network, found a significant reduction in depressive symptoms among YWH who received a manualized, measurement-guided treatment. This paper reports outcomes up to 24 weeks after the intervention.Eligibility included diagnosis of ongoing nonpsychotic depression. Using restricted randomization, sites were assigned to either combination cognitive behavioral therapy and medication management algorithm tailored for YWH or to enhanced standard of care, which provided psychotherapy and medication management. Site-level mean Quick Inventory for Depression Symptomatology Self-Report (QIDS-SR) scores and proportion of youth with treatment response (gt;50% decrease from baseline) and remission (QIDS-SR ≤ 5) were compared across arms using t tests.Thirteen sites enrolled 156 YWH, with baseline demographic factors, depression severity, and HIV disease status comparable across arms. At week 36, the site-level mean proportions of youth with a treatment response and remission were greater at combination cognitive behavioral therapy and medication management algorithm sites (52.0% vs. 18.8%, P = 0.02; 37.9% vs. 19.4%, P = 0.05), and the mean QIDS-SR was lower (7.45 vs. 9.75, P = 0.05). At week 48, the site-level mean proportion with a treatment response remained significantly greater (58.7% vs. 33.4%, P = 0.047).The impact of manualized, measurement-guided cognitive behavioral therapy and medication management algorithm tailored for YWH that was efficacious at week 24 continued to be evident at weeks 36 and 48.