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The theme of the relationship between Labour Party and economic competence resurfaced in February 2024 when Keir Starmer decided to scale down its £28 billion green investment pledge. This work explores the historical and structural reasons why the economic competence issue has tended to be ‘owned’ by the Tories. It highlights that the definition of economic competence has often coincided with an emphasis on monetary stability and balancing government budgets with relatively low levels of taxation from the late 1970s onwards. The Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis in the 1990s led to a partial redefinition of economic competence, now built around a political economy of ‘constrained discretion’ and ‘credible Keynesianism’. The 2007–8 global financial crisis gave the Conservative Party the opportunity to regain its reputation for competence by arguing that the crisis had been the consequence of excessive public spending. The Labour Party's decision to sacrifice its biggest single policy pledge on the altar of financial probity heralds the difficulties that the new Labour government will face when attempting to reconcile the need for an active and strategic state with its stance on fiscal rectitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multivariate time series have more complex and high‐dimensional characteristics, which makes it difficult to analyze and predict the data accurately. In this paper, a new multivariate time series prediction method is proposed. This method is a generative adversarial networks (GAN) method based on Fourier transform and bi‐directional gated recurrent unit (Bi‐GRU). First, the Fourier transform is utilized to extend the data features, which helps the GAN to better learn the distributional features of the original data. Second, in order to guide the model to fully learn the distribution of the original time series data, Bi‐GRU is introduced as the generator of GAN. To solve the problems of mode collapse and gradient vanishing that exist in GAN, Wasserstein distance is used as the loss function of GAN. Finally, the proposed method is used for the prediction of air quality, stock price and RMB exchange rate. The experimental results show that the model can effectively predict the trend of the time series compared with the other nine baseline models. It significantly improves the accuracy and flexibility of multivariate time series forecasting and provides new ideas and methods for accurate time series forecasting in industrial, financial and environmental fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze how reversals of several types of capital flows impact currency crises in emerging market and developing economies. Estimates of logit models show that reversals of (equity and debt) portfolio flows significantly increase the likelihood of currency crises in emerging market economies. In developing economies, reversals of portfolio debt flows and banking flows have a significant positive impact on currency crises. Finally, our results suggest that countries with mature financial systems and fixed exchange rate regimes are less likely to experience a currency crisis after a capital flow shock. The mediating role of capital account liberalization varies by country type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate modeling has always fascinated researchers because of its complex macroeconomic dynamics. This study documents the exchange rate dynamics of major emerging economies after accounting for their macroeconomic cycles and explores the Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Markov Regime switching model, which uses time‐varying transition probabilities. The main objective is to study the exchange rate dynamics of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) vis‐à‐vis the US dollar. The Bayesian setup uses two hierarchal shrinkage priors, the normal‐gamma (NG) prior and the Litterman prior, for parameters' estimation. These shrinkage priors allow for a more comprehensive assessment of the regime‐specific coefficients. The model performed well in differentiating between the two regimes for all currencies. The Russian ruble was identified to be the most depreciated currency, whereas the African Rand was the most appreciated. The evaluation of model features revealed that many regime‐specific coefficients differed significantly from their common mean. A forecasting exercise was then performed for the out‐of‐sample period to assess the model's performance. A significant improvement was observed over the basic random walk (RW) model and the linear Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends the Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV‐DPM) model. Instead of using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) to model return innovations, we use an infinite hidden Markov model (IHMM). This allows for time variation in the return density beyond that attributed to parametric latent volatility. The new model nests several special cases as well as the SV‐DPM. We also discuss posterior and predictive density simulation methods for the model. Applied to equity returns, foreign exchange rates, oil price growth and industrial production growth, the new model improves density forecasts, compared with the SV‐DPM, a stochastic volatility with Student's t innovations and other fat‐tailed volatility models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

F‐doped La0.6Sr0.4Co0.2Fe0.8O3‐x−δFx (LSCFFx, x = 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20) materials are evaluated as oxygen electrodes for solid oxide fuel and electrolyser cell application. Materials have been prepared via low‐temperature topotactic route by fluorination of the parent oxide with polyvinylidene fluorine (PVDF). A decrease in the polarisation resistance (Rp) is observed for the "LSCFFx" symmetric cells. However, the improved electrochemical behavior for the symmetric cells cannot be explained by the presence of fluorine, as post mortem chemical analysis shows that fluorine is absent from the materials after the calcination treatment, contradicting previous results from the literature and calling for deeper understanding. The presence of fluorine is proved to result in a sluggish surface exchange rate compared with the LSCF oxide via pulsed isotopic exchange technique. Despite the absence of fluorine in the fabricated symmetric cell, annealing with PVDF at low temperatures prior to the electrode fabrication is proven to be a beneficial step to improve the electrochemical performance of LSCF material with applications for solid oxide cells. Studies with room temperature X‐ray diffraction, X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and Mössbauer spectroscopy suggest that increased oxygen vacancy concentration, structural disorder and changes in the cobalt/iron valence state distribution are potential explanations for the reduced Rp. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A series of N‐alkyl‐ and N‐aryl‐viologens has been studied in alkaline solutions. In this work, we evaluated the deuteration rate of the viologens in D2O solutions of pH values ranging from 7.3 to 12.7. Kinetic experiments and computational calculations showed the high reactivity of H−C(2) bonds toward deprotonation of N‐aryl‐pyridinium moieties compared to N‐alkyl‐pyridinium moieties, even in hybrid N‐aryl/N‐alkyl dissymmetric viologens. However this high H−C(2) reactivity in liquid phase contrasted with the proton fragmentation mechanism observed in the gas phase by mass spectrometry. The H/D exchange rate of viologens in very strong alkaline conditions could be significantly reduced using cucurbit[7]uril (CB[7]) as supramolecular protecting group. Ultimately, CB[7] inclusion led to a selective protection of H−C(2) group of N‐aryl‐pyridinium of dissymmetric viologens, and induced a supramolecular regioselective deuteration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The revenue mobilization remains a challenge for many countries, especially developing countries such as India. Therefore, this study explores the macroeconomic determinants of Goods and Service Tax (GST) revenue of the government in India as GST constitutes a major share in the Own Tax Revenue (OTR) of the government in India. The current study has employed the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the macroeconomic determinants of GST taxation revenue of the government in India. The results reveal that foreign direct investment, depreciation in the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves have a favorable impact on the GST revenue of the government in India. Furthermore, the gross fiscal deficits of the government and inflation have a detrimental effect on the GST revenue collection of the government in India. The results of the study are supported by the Tanzi effect and the Tanzi–Olivera effect for the detrimental effect of inflation and gross fiscal deficit on the GST revenue of the government in India. The current study has major policy implications for the government, policymakers, and researchers. The empirical results illustrates that the government may put a stringent check on inflation and gross fiscal deficit of the country to improve their GST collections. Moreover, the government should try to focus on foreign direct investment, trade openness, and foreign exchange reserve in India to increase their GST revenue. Meanwhile, the current study can be used as a base for conducting future studies at national and international levels for examining the determinants of other taxation revenue of the government by incorporating other country specific variables. This study may act as a novel contribution to the available literature on the macroeconomic determinants of taxation revenue in India. To the knowledge, it will be the first study in India to especially explore the determinants of GST revenue of the government in India. However, the findings of the study need to be generalize in future by incorporating a larger sample size as GST is still in its introductory phase in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaching‐induced corrosion of the reinforcing steel in water‐bearing separating cracks When water flows through separating cracks or construction joints, the cement paste leaches out, and alkalinity is reduced. As with carbonation, this decrease in pH leads to the loss of the passive layer, which is limited to the directly adjacent area. The progress of corrosion may depend on the water exchange rate. This presented study investigates the influence of the water pressure level on test specimens with crack widths between 0.20 and 0.25 mm (mean values) on the onset of depassivation and the corrosion rate. The test specimens were exposed to demineralised water at a hydrostatic pressure of 0.04 bar, 0.20 bar or 1.00 bar and monitored for corrosion. A few days after the start of exposure, high macroelement currents flow in all test specimens. Later, due to self‐healing, the flow stops at 0.04 bar, and the macroelement currents decrease significantly. In contrast, the reduced but steady flow at 0.20 and 1.00 bar leads to a continuous corrosion progression. While a (planned) longer interruption of the water supply results in repassivation of the steel, renewed pressurisation significantly increases both the flow and corrosion rates. The leaching manifests in an increase in the pH of the effluent water and a reduced calcium concentration in the crack area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article estimates the pass‐through of different shocks into different U.S. prices that are important for policy makers. The investigation is based on a structural vector autoregression model, where quarterly data are used. The empirical results depict oil price pass‐through, exchange rate pass‐through, import‐price pass‐through, and producer price pass‐through into import prices, producer prices, and consumer prices for the U.S. economy. Policy implications suggest that achieving and sustaining consumer price stability highly depend on monitoring the developments in oil prices, followed by import prices and producer prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I estimate the effect of financial constraints on the response of firms that import inputs to a large exchange rate depreciation. Using data from a census on Indonesian firms, I find that while domestic importers face lower value added due to a rise in their costs of production, foreign‐owned importers fare better: they are more likely to sustain higher value added, hire more labor and use more materials than domestic owned firms. These effects are driven by firms in industries with high demand for external finance, emphasizing the importance of access to finance in mitigating the impact of trade and credit shocks. This suggests another channel through which FDI can add value to a firm in a developing country, particularly with the increasing importance of trade in intermediate goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To investigate the effects of compartmental anisotropy on filtered exchange imaging (FEXI) in white matter (WM). Theory and Methods: FEXI signals were measured using multiple combinations of diffusion filter and detection directions in five healthy volunteers. Additional filters, including a trace‐weighted diffusion filter with trapezoidal gradients, a spherical b‐tensor encoded diffusion filter, and a T2 filter, were tested with trace‐weighted diffusion detection. Results: A large range of apparent exchange rates (AXR) and both positive and negative filter efficiencies (σ) were found depending on the mutual orientation of the filter and detection gradients relative to WM fiber orientation. The data demonstrated that the fast‐diffusion compartment suppressed by diffusional filtering is not exclusively extra‐cellular, but also intra‐cellular. While not comprehensive, a simple two‐compartment diffusion tensor model with water exchange was able to account qualitatively for the trends in positive and negative filtering efficiencies, while standard model imaging (SMI) without exchange could not. This two‐compartment diffusion tensor model also demonstrated smaller AXR variances across subjects. When employing trace‐weighted diffusion detection, AXR values were on the order of the R1 (=1/T1) of water at 3T for crossing fibers, while being less than R1 for parallel fibers. Conclusion: Orientation‐dependent AXR and σ values were observed when using multi‐orientation filter and detection gradients in FEXI, indicating that WM FEXI models need to account for compartmental anisotropy. When using trace‐weighted detection, AXR values were on the order of or less than R1, complicating the interpretation of FEXI results in WM in terms of biological exchange properties. These findings may contribute toward better understanding of FEXI results in WM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the behavior of currencies' intraday exchange rates with mainly focuses on predicting these behaviors through deep learning models. The time series data are used in this study and comprise intraday exchange rate data for seven volatile currencies, recorded at two different frequency intervals: 1 h and 30 min. The data cover the time frame from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2020. Firstly, wavelet maximal overlap discreet wavelet transform (MODWT) type "haar" is applied in order to identify the noise representing the volatile trend. Then learning models are applied to historical data that includes support vector regression (SVR), recurrent neural network (RNN), and long short‐term memory (LSTM). The main findings of the study provide strong evidence that the deep learning technique (i.e., LSTM) outperforms the other compatible models. This has been confirmed by the statistical measures for accuracy purposes. This study intends to address complex trends exhibited by volatile behavior of intraday exchange rates through non‐conventional learning techniques for the time of need‐based for the currency traders and other stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Woody plants display some photosynthetic activity in stems, but the biological role of stem photosynthesis and the specific contributions of bark and wood to carbon uptake and oxygen evolution remain poorly understood.We aimed to elucidate the functional characteristics of chloroplasts in stems of different ages in Fraxinus ornus. Our investigation employed diverse experimental approaches, including microsensor technology to assess oxygen production rates in whole stem, bark, and wood separately. Additionally, we utilized fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) to characterize the relative abundance of photosystems I and II (PSI : PSII chlorophyll ratio) in bark and wood.Our findings revealed light‐induced increases in O2 production in whole stem, bark, and wood. We present the radial profile of O2 production in F. ornus stems, demonstrating the capability of stem chloroplasts to perform light‐dependent electron transport. Younger stems exhibited higher light‐induced O2 production and dark respiration rates than older ones.While bark emerged as the primary contributor to net O2 production under light conditions, our data underscored that wood chloroplasts are also photosynthetically active. The FLIM analysis unveiled a lower PSI abundance in wood than in bark, suggesting stem chloroplasts are not only active but also acclimate to the spectral composition of light reaching inner compartments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the strong nonlinearity and high complexity of foreign exchange rate data, how best to accurately analyze their trends and forecast them is regarded as a challenging research topic. While such research has developed rapidly and a large number of publications have appeared, few programmatic quantitative and qualitative overviews have been compiled in the field of exchange rate. By integrating bibliometric methods with network visualization based on CiteSpace software, this study analyzed 4999 publications of exchange rate research from the Web of Science (WoS) Core Collection database during 1992 to 2021. The study summarizes the major development in exchange rate determination since Meese‐Rogoff puzzle, from New Open‐Economy Macroeconomics (NOEM) and the Foreign Exchange Market Micro‐Structure Hypotheses, to determination model based on relationship between exchange rate and commodity price. Through the study's statistical analysis, co‐occurrence, co‐citation, and co‐keywords analysis, the influential authors, research institutions, countries and regions, journals, research hotspots, and future trends in the field of exchange rate are intellectually identified over the past 30 years. As a complement to existing literature, this paper provides theoretical and practical reference for researchers and practitioners in the field of exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kuroshio Loop Current (KLC) is an important form of Kuroshio intrusion into the northeastern South China Sea (NESCS), which has significant influences on dynamical and biogeochemical processes in the NESCS. Recent studies suggested that the KLC is a hot spot of submesoscale processes (submesoscales) with spatiotemporal scales of O(1–10) km and O(1–10) days, but submesoscales' roles in energy cascade and salt and heat transports remain obscure. Here, we investigate this issue through analyzing outputs from a 1/48° simulation. The kinetic energy exchange rate between submesoscale and larger‐scale processes (KER) is overall positive in the KLC region, which suggests the dominance of forward cascade. The magnitude of KER is comparable with the temporal change rate of larger‐scale kinetic energy in the upper 200 m. We also find that magnitude and direction of KER are closely associated with strain rate and horizontal divergence of background flows, respectively. In addition, the KLC region shows elevated submesoscale salinity and heat diffusivities with magnitudes reaching O(102) m2 s−1. During the KLC period, horizontal mixing by submesoscales can transport 0.90 × 1013 kg salt and 0.71 × 1020 J heat westward into the NESCS interior, which are an order of magnitude larger than those caused by the mesoscale eddy shedding from the KLC. These results suggest that submesoscales play important roles not only in energy cascade but also in salt and heat transports in the KLC region. Therefore, the roles of submesoscales should be taken into account when studying energy, salt, and heat budgets in the NESCS. Plain Language Summary: As the western boundary current of the North Pacific subtropical gyre, the Kuroshio can intrude into the northeastern South China Sea (NESCS) in the form of Kuroshio Loop Current (KLC), which modulate the tracer and energy budgets of NESCS through shedding eddies. Although previous studies have reported that the KLC region is abundant with submesoscale processes (submesoscales) with spatiotemporal scales of O(1–10) km and O(1–10) days, their roles in cross‐scale energy transfer and salt and heat transports are poorly known. Here, the above issues are examined through an analysis of outputs from a 1/48° ocean simulation. We find that larger‐scale processes generally feed submesoscales through a forward energy transfer in upper 200 m, whose rate is comparable in magnitude with the temporal change rate of larger‐scale kinetic energy. Furthermore, the horizontal mixing effect of submesoscales can transport a huge amount of heat and salt westward into the NESCS interior during the KLC period. The salt and heat transports are an order of magnitude larger than those caused by the mesoscale eddy shedding from the KLC. The above results suggest that submesoscales associated with the KLC play important roles in the energy, heat, and salt budgets in the NESCS. Key Points: Submesoscales in the Kuroshio Loop Current (KLC) are examined using high‐resolution simulation outputsEnergy exchange between submesoscales and KLC plays an important role in the local energy budgetHorizontal salt and heat transports by submesoscales are much larger than those by mesoscale eddy shedding from the KLC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permeable sediments, which make up almost half of the continental shelf worldwide, are potential sources of the important greenhouse gas N2O from coastal regions. Yet, the extent to which interactions between these sediments and anthropogenic pollution produce N2O is still unknown. Here we use laboratory experiments and modeling to explore the factors controlling N2O production at a eutrophic site in a temperate shallow marine embayment (Port Phillip Bay, Australia). Our results show that denitrification is the main source of N2O production within permeable sediments, but the extent to which N2O is actually released is determined by the rate of seawater exchange with the sediment bed (which governs solute residence time within the bed). In wave‐dominated coastal areas, shallower water with more intense waves (wave height > 1 m) release the most N2O, with up to 0.5% of dissolved inorganic nitrogen pumped into biologically active eutrophic sediment being released as N2O. Our results suggest rates of N2O production in coastal permeable sediments are generally low compared to other environments. Plain Language Summary: Permeable sands cover almost half of the coastal continental shelf around the world. The permeability of sand sediments, means water can flow through these sediments in complex patterns driven by waves and currents. This flow through the sediment can control nitrous oxide and methane production which are poorly understood. This is particularly important in regions impacted by nitrogen pollution where production of these greenhouse gases can be high. Here we combine experiments and modeling to explore the factors controlling N2O production at a sandy site impacted by nitrogen pollution (Port Phillip Bay, Australia). Our results show the rate of nitrous oxide release to the water column is governed by the rate of seawater exchange with the bed. Shallower water with more intense waves (wave height exceeding 1 m) releases the most N2O, with up to 0.5% of dissolved nitrogen pumped into the sediment being released as N2O. Overall, these results suggest permeable sediments have relatively low rates of nitrous oxide release most of the time. Key Points: Coastal hydrodynamics impose an important boundary condition on the production of N2O in permeable sedimentsLess than 0.5% of seawater dissolved inorganic nitrogen is converted to N2O due to forcing imposed by passing surface gravity wavesPermeable sediments are a relatively minor source of N2O emission in coastal waters of Port Phillip Bay [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrologic flows across the river–aquifer interface play an important role in groundwater dynamics and biogeochemical reactions within the subsurface; however, little is known about the effects of river–aquifer interactions on land surface processes. In this study, we developed a fully coupled three‐dimensional (3D) land surface and subsurface model at a high resolution (~1 km) that accounts for high‐frequency hydrologic exchange flow conditions to investigate how river–aquifer interactions modulate surface water budgets in the Upper Columbia‐Priest Rapids watershed, a typical semiarid watershed located in the northwestern United States where river stage fluctuates in response to reservoir releases changing. Our results show that the spatiotemporal dynamics of river–aquifer interactions are highly heterogeneous, driven mainly by river‐stage fluctuations. Adding 6.64 × 106 m3 year−1 of water over the watershed from the river to groundwater owing to the lateral flow, river–aquifer interactions led to an increase in soil evaporation and transpiration supplied by higher soil moisture content, particularly in deeper subsurface. In a hypothetic future scenarios where a 5‐m rise in river stage was assumed, the hydrologic flow exchange rates were intensified, resulting in higher surface water over the entire watershed. Overall, lateral flow induced by river–aquifer exchanges leads to an increase in evapotranspiration of ~75% in the historical period and of ~83% in the hypothetical future scenario. Our study demonstrates the potential of coupled model as an effective tool for understanding river–aquifer–land surface interactions, and indicates that river–aquifer interactions fundamentally alter the water balance of the riparian zone for the semiarid watershed and will likely become more frequent and intense in the future under the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether capital flow management and monetary policies effectively reduce credit growth in emerging market economies in the presence of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy actions undertaken by advanced economies. We apply a dynamic panel model with fixed effects to a sample of 21 emerging market economies from 2000 to 2020 using quarterly data and more continuous variables than in other studies rather than limiting the variability using proxies. We find that capital controls and macroprudential regulation, as tools of capital flow management policy, moderate credit growth. This effect is particularly shown in countries with tighter monetary conditions. Our main findings highlight the useful role of coordinating capital flow management and monetary policies. This role stands for both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Lastly, we find capital flow management and monetary policies manage to control credit in normal periods, but their coordination is less effective during crises and high volatility periods. Robustness checks suggest that these findings are stable across alternative proxies used in the literature, thus providing additional support for the validity of our results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The US economy is going through a challenging transition, with a lowered GDP growth forecast of 2.3% for 2024. Some sectors, such as housing and manufacturing, are struggling, but this does not necessarily indicate a broader economic downturn. The rise in the unemployment rate is concentrated among younger workers, reducing the risk of a negative cycle. Inflation is expected to remain low, and the Federal Reserve is predicted to cut interest rates. Overall, the short-term growth outlook is moderate, with factors such as household balance sheets and equipment spending supporting the economy. Consumer spending has slowed due to inflation, but this is expected to moderate in the coming months. The job market remains strong, although job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate may inch higher. The Federal Reserve is considering cutting interest rates, and fiscal policy is expected to remain stable. [Extracted from the article]

Forecasting exchange rate returns is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. In this study, we forecast daily exchange rate returns of six widely traded currencies using combination and dimensionality reduction methods. We propose a hybrid iterated combination with constrained predictor approach. In addition, we examine the impact of positivity constraints on the forecasting ability of each method. Our results indicate that the proposed hybrid method outperforms the simple linear bivariate method and both the iterated combination and the predictor constrained approaches. Positivity constraints significantly improve the forecasting ability of all methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aims of this study is to investigate the relationship between real exchange rate and innovation in China for the period spanning from 1985 to 2020 using an annual time series data collected from different sources. The study employs autoregressive distributed lag bound test and other econometrics techniques to analyse the short‐run and long‐run relationship among the variables. The findings of the study reveal the existence of short‐run and long‐run relationship between real exchange rate (undervalued RMB) and technological innovation. Furthermore, real exchange rate (undervalued RMB) has positive effect on innovation while real exchange rate volatility is negatively affect innovation. Based on the above empirical findings, the study suggests some policy implications which are considered important for fostering rapid and sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we analyse the evolution of the real effective exchange rate (REER) as a measure of competitiveness for a group of Central and Eastern European countries. To do this, we employ unit‐root tests with breaks and estimate the equations with structural breaks. Our results show that even though the REERs have become flatter, which means less competitiveness is lost against main trading partners, they have also become less mean‐reverting, suggesting that shocks now tend to have longer effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the bilateral semiconductor trade between Korea and China. We present compelling evidence emphasising the significant role of exchange rate changes in Korea's semiconductor trade with China, affecting both short‐term and long‐term dynamics. Our analysis also reveals an asymmetrical effect of bilateral exchange rates on Korea's semiconductor trade with China. Specifically, we find that exchange rate asymmetries primarily manifest as a long‐term phenomenon in Korea's semiconductor exports to China. At the same time, they influence both short‐ and long‐term dynamics in Korea's semiconductor imports from China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The motive of the study is to examine real effective exchange rates (REER) for Dutch disease effect (DDE) and evaluate the favourite exchange rate regime (ERR) for oil exporters, besides considering the time effect and development stages. This study included yearly data from 2001 to 2010 for 51 oil‐exporting nations. For empirical estimation, this study employed the dynamic panel threshold model. The study deduced that a nonlinear relationship in net oil‐exporting countries. The findings revealed that oil‐exporting countries experiencing a reduction in non‐oil exports if the real exchange rate (RER) exceeds than 3% (from the previous year), validating the Dutch disease phenomenon in oil‐exporting countries. Moreover, exposure to this threat increases with a fixed ERR, developing countries and early periods of exporting oil. Specifically, the results of the study contribute to empirical knowledge in economic sciences and provide useful insights into political implications and strategic planning for policymakers in oil‐exporting countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Self‐repairing materials aim to replicate nature's repair mechanisms, but their current properties are inadequate for commercialization due to the trade‐off between repair and mechanical properties. An environmentally responsive low‐temperature self‐healing aqueous polyurethane with different sequence structures was developed in which the WPU‐MD/APDS system exhibited excellent performance. Statically, the incorporation of MD (1,8‐diamino‐P‐menthane) enhances hydrogen bonding within the system and facilitates reversible weak dynamic bonding; microphase separation enables aggregation of disulfide bonds in the hard‐phase domain, thereby improving disulfide bond exchange rates. Dynamically, the inclusion of MD introduces a rigid ring structure and promotes microphase separation with increased hydrogen bonding, leading to enhanced mechanical properties of the materials. The material exhibited tensile strength of 27.37 MPa, elongation at break of 1353%, excellent elastic recovery ability, and high tensile toughness of 136 MJ m−3; a sample with thickness of 0.2 mm lifted weight greater than its own weight into 40,000 times without damage recovery at 40°C. Rheological analysis confirmed its self‐healing property at room temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kinetic inertness of Mn(II)‐based MRI contrast agents can be improved by increasing the rigidity of the polydentate ligand that tightly coordinate the metal ion. Taking inspiration from the remarkable increase in kinetic inertness of [Mn(CDTA)]2− compared to [Mn(EDTA)]2− due to the cyclohexyl backbone rigidity, we devised that bicyclic ligands would further improve the kinetic inertness of the Mn(II) complexes. The length of the alkyl bridge on the cyclohexane ring was varied from methylene (BCH‐DTA), ethylene (BCO‐DTA) to propylene (BCN‐DTA) to evaluate the influence of the different trans‐diaminotetraacetate ligands on relaxometric, thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the Mn(II) complexes. 1H and 17O NMR relaxometric studies showed a slight increase in relaxivity and a faster water exchange rate in these Mn(II)‐complexes with respect to [Mn(CDTA)]2−. Solution studies revealed that the conditional stability (pMn) and dissociation half‐life (t1/2) at pH 7.4 follow the order [Mn(BCH‐DTA)]2−<[Mn(BCO‐DTA)]2−<[Mn(BCN‐DTA)]2− highlighting the effect of the bridge length on the overall stability of the Mn(II) complexes. Remarkably, [Mn(BCN‐DTA)]2− shows an improved pMn value and a 7‐times higher kinetic inertness than [Mn(CDTA)]2−. NMR studies on the Zn(II) analogues confirm the rigidity of the bicyclic complexes with an isomerization process at >313 K for the smaller bridged complex [Zn(BCH‐DTA)]2−. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Illicit financial flows have been an issue of great concern over the past decades due to the challenge they present for economic development in Africa. Illicit financial flows undermine the productivity and growth of African economies as countries lose foreign exchange and tax revenues. Countries lose financial resources needed for development programs, hence undermining social service delivery and retarding poverty reduction. To effectively combat illicit financial flows, it is imperative to examine their determinants. This study seeks to examine the determinants of illicit capital movement in the China‐Africa trade through the mechanisms of trade misinvoicing over the period 1990–2019. The IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database is used to estimate trade misinvoicing. Estimates using mirror trade data indicate that both exports of Africa to China and imports from China to Africa are mainly underinvoiced. The net effect shows that trade misinvoicing in the China‐Africa trade results in net illicit capital outflow for about 44% of countries in Africa. The results from panel data regressions indicate that tax evasion is one of the major factors behind misinvoicing in China‐Africa trade. In addition, corruption control is found to reduce export underinvoicing, while political stability reduces both export overinvoicing and import overinvoicing. Export misinvoicing increases with the presence of natural resources in the exporting country. Other factors associated with trade misinvoicing in China‐Africa trade include openness to trade, current account deficit, and real exchange rate. The study suggests ways to reduce trade misinvoicing in China‐Africa trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the global rise in populism over the last decade, there has been an increase in political commentaries (PC) by leaders that criticize their central banks and argue for lower interest rates. We analyse the effects of PCs on exchange rates, bond yields, and the risk premium for six countries that are subject to political pressures. Utilizing a specification with time‐varying parameters, we show that PCs affect the level and the volatility of exchange rates, bond yields and the risk premium in Turkey. The response increases over time. In other countries, there is a significant impact on exchange rate volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Economic Outlook article provides a comprehensive overview of the global economic conditions and short-term growth outlook for various countries and regions. It predicts that global GDP will grow by 2.6% this year and slightly increase to 2.8% in 2025. The article discusses the strength of the US dollar, which is projected to continue before potentially weakening in 2026. It also highlights the economic conditions and growth prospects for the United States, China, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK. Additionally, it provides insights into the economic outlook for India, Latin America, Turkey, and South Africa. The article aims to provide library patrons with factual and culturally sensitive information to support their research on specific topics. [Extracted from the article]

This article explores the concept of a universal currency, drawing parallels to the Roman Empire's banking system and its use of promissory notes. It discusses the collapse of the Roman imperial currency due to hyperinflation and political turmoil, comparing it to the challenges faced by Britain in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. The article highlights the fluctuating exchange rates and poor quality of coins in circulation during this time, contrasting it with the Roman Empire's successful management of its currency. It concludes by acknowledging the evolution of currency systems and the increasing reliance on digital transactions in the modern world. [Extracted from the article]

Australia is a leading exporter of primary and agricultural commodities like iron ore, coal, wool and beef. Industry stakeholders point out that exchange rate fluctuations remain a key determinant of export revenue. This article investigates the exchange rate pass‐through to export prices using the recently proposed impulse responses by the local projections technique. Employing export prices in all destination markets and trade‐weighted exchange rates, there is substantial evidence that 17 SITC industry and sub‐industry level prices experience moderate to high exchange rate pass‐through to export prices. These industry categories include sectors like minerals and natural resources products, which are homogenous in nature, and Australia enjoys a comparative advantage in the export of such goods. However, this competitive edge does not necessarily lead to higher export prices, as currency invoicing plays an important role in determining the extent of the pass‐through effect. Our findings have important policy implications, especially regarding the invoicing currency strategy for exporters selling homogenous items. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Phosphorus (P) for carbon (C) exchange is the pivotal function of arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM), but how this exchange varies with soil P availability and among co‐occurring plants in complex communities is still largely unknown.We collected intact plant communities in two regions differing c. 10‐fold in labile inorganic P. After a 2‐month glasshouse incubation, we measured 32P transfer from AM fungi (AMF) to shoots and 13C transfer from shoots to AMF using an AMF‐specific fatty acid. AMF communities were assessed using molecular methods.AMF delivered a larger proportion of total shoot P in communities from high‐P soils despite similar 13C allocation to AMF in roots and soil. Within communities, 13C concentration in AMF was consistently higher in grass than in blanketflower (Gaillardia aristata Pursh) roots, that is P appeared more costly for grasses. This coincided with differences in AMF taxa composition and a trend of more vesicles (storage structures) but fewer arbuscules (exchange structures) in grass roots. Additionally, 32P‐for‐13C exchange ratios increased with soil P for blanketflower but not grasses.Contrary to predictions, AMF transferred proportionally more P to plants in communities from high‐P soils. However, the 32P‐for‐13C exchange differed among co‐occurring plants, suggesting differential regulation of the AM symbiosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Variations in arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) effects on plant growth (MGR) are commonly assumed to result from cost : benefit balances, with C as the cost and, most frequently, P as the benefit. The trade‐balance model (TBM) adopts these assumptions and hypothesizes that mycorrhizal benefit depends on C : N : P stoichiometry. Although widely accepted, the TBM has not been experimentally tested.We isolated the parameters included in the TBM and tested these assumptions using it as framework. Oryza sativa plants were supplied with different N : P ratios at low light level, establishing different C : P and C : N exchange rates, and C, N or P limitation. MGR and effects on nutrient uptake, %M, ERM, photosynthesis and shoot starch were measured.C distribution to AM fungi played no role in MGR, and N was essential for all AM effects, including on P nutrition. C distribution to AM and MGR varied with the limiting nutrient (N or P), and evidence of extensive interplay between N and P was observed.The TBM was not confirmed. The results agreed with the exchange of surplus resources and source–sink regulation of resource distribution among plants and AMF. Rather than depending on exchange rates, resource exchange may simply obey both symbiont needs, not requiring further regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lanthanide complexes of DO3A‐derivative ligands bearing a pyridine‐carbamate (L1) or pyridine‐amine (L2) arm have potential interest in the design of enzymatically activated imaging probes. Solid‐state X‐ray structures for CeL1 and YbL2 both demonstrate twisted square antiprismatic geometry, with the metal ion in a nine‐ or an eight‐coordinate environment, respectively. As assessed by pH‐potentiometry, in solution lanthanide ions form more stable complexes with the nonadentate L1 than with the octadentate L2 ligand (logKML=18.7–21.1 vs. 16.7–18.6, respectively), while stability constants are similar for L1 and L2 chelates of Mg2+, Ca2+, Zn2+ or Cu2+. The kinetic inertness of GdL1 is exceptionally high, with an estimated dissociation half‐life of ~108 h at pH 7.4, while LnL2 (Ln=Ce, Gd, Yb) complexes have 3–4 orders of magnitude faster dissociation, related to the presence of the protonatable, non‐coordinating amine function. The water exchange rate determined for the monohydrated GdL2 (kex298=1.3×106 s−1) shows a threefold decrease with respect to GdDOTA, as a consequence of a reduction in the negative charge and in the steric crowding around the water binding site, both important in dissociatively activated water exchange processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article introduces a new subclass of nonlinear moving average model, called the smooth transition moving average (STMA) model, and studies its probabilistic properties. It is shown that, under some mild conditions, the least squares estimation (LSE) is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. A powerful score‐based goodness‐of‐fit test for the STMA model is presented. A different parametrization from the classical one is applied to numerically improve the identification and estimation of this model. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the LSE and the score‐based test in finite samples. The results are illustrated with an application to the weekly exchange rate of the USA Dollar to the British Pound. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) is a magnetic resonance (MR) imaging method providing molecular image contrasts based on indirect detection of low concentrated solutes. Previous CEST studies focused predominantly on the imaging of single CEST exchange regimes (e.g., slow, intermediate or fast exchanging groups). In this work, we aim to establish a so‐called comprehensive CEST protocol for 7 T, covering the different exchange regimes by three saturation B1 amplitude regimes: low, intermediate and high. We used the results of previous publications and our own simulations in pulseq‐CEST to produce a 7 T CEST protocol that has sensitivity to these three B1 regimes. With postprocessing optimization (simultaneous mapping of water shift and B1, B0‐fitting, multiple interleaved mode saturation B1 correction, neural network employment (deepCEST) and analytical input feature reduction), we are able to shorten our initially 40 min protocol to 15 min and generate six CEST contrast maps simultaneously. With this protocol, we measured four healthy subjects and one patient with a brain tumor. We established a comprehensive CEST protocol for clinical 7 T MRI, covering three different B1 amplitude regimes. We were able to reduce the acquisition time significantly by more than 50%, while still maintaining decent image quality and contrast in healthy subjects and one patient with a tumor. Our protocol paves the way to perform comprehensive CEST studies in clinical scan times for hypothesis generation regarding molecular properties of certain pathologies, for example, ischemic stroke or high‐grade brain tumours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The notion that the exchange rate affects exports is well understood. However, whether exporters respond to the expectations of the exchange rate is unknown. Hence, in this study, we construct a measure of exchange rate expectations based on news articles from the Factiva database. We use machine learning to identify and classify news articles about the appreciation of the renminbi (RMB, Chinese currency). Our empirical estimation shows that from 2000 to 2006, Chinese firms reduced their exports in response to a higher expectation of RMB appreciation. They switched their sales from export to domestic markets. The responses are larger in low‐productivity firms, state‐owned enterprises, processing trade, and final goods trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate changes on cultural services trade balances in China, Japan, the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany from 2006 to 2015. These six countries represent dominant players whose experiences reflect global impacts. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models test for J‐curve effects. Cultural distance matrices combined with cluster analysis explore how cultural proximity influences trade structures. Results demonstrate a J‐curve effect in China contrasting with a reverse J‐curve in the United States. China and Japan form one cultural trade cluster distinct from a Western bloc of the United States, United Kingdom, and France. This signifies emerging economies have developed unique cultural trade models. The research enriches empirical evidence on exchange rate impacts for understudied cultural services trade. Introducing cultural distance provides a novel perspective and policy insights for emerging economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily monitoring of psychological parameters, encompassing chemical and physical signals, has become increasingly valuable for the management of chronic diseases. Among various vital signs, carbon dioxide exchange and pulse rate (PR) serve as critical indicators for the comprehensive assessment of the cardiopulmonary system. However, simultaneous monitoring of these chemical and physical signals in a nonintrusive manner is challenging. This study presents a wearable bracelet that enables simultaneous monitoring of transcutaneous carbon dioxide (TcCO2) and PR using a nanomaterials‐modified lensless CMOS imager. The proposed bracelet exhibits exceptional sensitivity, selectivity, and anti‐humidity interference in TcCO2 detection, and achieves reliable tracking of TcCO2 and PR fluctuations induced by daily activities, demonstrating great potential in the comprehensive assessment of cardiopulmonary system. In addition, the proposed compact imaging approach is multiplexed and extensible, providing a promising sensing platform for the future development of multifunctional wearable devices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries where the volume of remittances received represents a significant proportion of their gross domestic product usually face short‐term pressures on their exchange rates that are unrelated to their economic fundamentals. In this article, we analyze how a remittance payment system involving the central banks of the source and destination countries of such remittances could mitigate the pressures on the exchange rate in the receiving country. To quantify the possible effect of such a system, we make an estimate for the case of Guatemala. We also consider the other benefits this system might provide for recipient economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effects of giant oil discovery and boom‐bust price cycle on manufacturing using a large dataset of up to 49,481 two‐digit industry‐years across 136 countries over the period 1962 to 2012. We find that oil discovery reduces growth in manufacturing value added and wages. The effect on employment is insignificant. We also find strong association between oil discovery and manufacturing slowdown episodes. Oil price boom and bust both negatively affects manufacturing perhaps due to increasing input cost (boom) and declining demand (bust). We do not find any evidence in favour of a real exchange rate appreciation driven effect as outlined in standard Dutch Disease models. We speculate that the effect is primarily driven by an increase in the cost of locally sourced manufacturing input. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Self‐assembling systems in nature display remarkable complexity with assemblies of different sub‐units to generate functional species. Synthetic analogues of such systems are a challenge, often requiring the ability to bias distributions that are under thermodynamic assembly control. Using lantern‐type MOCs (metal‐organic cages) as a prototypical self‐assembling system, herein we explore the role that steric bulk plays in controlling the exchange rate of ligands in paddlewheel‐based assemblies, and thus the stability of cages, in competitive self‐assembling scenarios. The effective lifetime of the lantern‐type MOCs varies over an order of magnitude depending on the steric bulk proximal to the metal nodes with lifetimes of the cages ranging from tens of minutes to several hours. The bulk of the coordinating solvents likewise reduces the rate of ligand exchange, and thus yields longer‐lived species. Understanding this subtle effect has implications for controlling the stability of complex assemblies in competitive environments with implications for guest release and application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report the synthesis of three new heptadentate ligands derived from H4AAZTA (6‐amino‐6‐methylperhydro‐1,4‐diazepinetetraacetic acid) that contain a dimethyl‐amide group (AAZTA‐MA)3−, two dimethyl‐amide groups (AAZTA‐BMA)2− or two acetylglycine groups (AAZTA(Gly)2)4−. The corresponding Gd(III) complexes were investigated using 1H NMR relaxometry and 17O NMR chemical shifts and transverse relaxation rates. A computational DFT study was also performed to aid the analysis of the NMR data. The Gd(III) complexes contain two water molecules coordinated to the metal ion. In contrast to the prevailing trend, the amide derivatives discussed in this context exhibit comparatively rapid water exchange rates that do not align with the changes in the overall electric charge of the complexes: kex298=14.4×106 s−1, 14.5×106 s−1 and 9.56×106 s−1 for [Gd(AAZTA‐MA)(H2O)2], [Gd(AAZTA‐BMA)(H2O)2]+ and [Gd(AAZTA(Gly)2(H2O)2]−, respectively. The analysis of the data and the computational work suggest that the relatively fast water exchange rates could be linked to the occurrence of associatively activated mechanisms, which is somewhat unexpected for nine‐coordinated complexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disulfides in peptides and proteins are essential for maintaining a properly folded structure. Their oxidative folding is invariably performed in an aqueous‐buffered solution. However, this process is often slow and can lead to misfolded products. Here, we report a novel concept and strategy that is bio‐inspired to mimic protein disulfide isomerase (PDI) by accelerating disulfide exchange rates many thousand‐fold. The proposed strategy termed organic oxidative folding is performed under organic solvents to yield correctly folded cysteine‐rich microproteins instantaneously without observable misfolded or dead‐end products. Compared to conventional aqueous oxidative folding strategies, enormously large rate accelerations up to 113,200‐fold were observed. The feasibility and generality of the organic oxidative folding strategy was successfully demonstrated on 15 cysteine‐rich microproteins of different hydrophobicity, lengths (14 to 58 residues), and numbers of disulfides (2 to 5 disulfides), producing the native products in a second and in high yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new hemicryptophane host with a ditopic molecular cavity combining a cyclotriveratrylene (CTV) unit with a tris‐urea moiety was synthesized. The complexation of halides, tetramethylammonium (TMA+) cation, and ion pairs was investigated. A positive cooperativity was observed, since halides display a higher binding constant when a TMA+ cation is already present inside the cage. When TMA+ was complexed alone, a decrease of temperature from 298 K to 230 K was required to switch from a fast to a slow exchange regime on the NMR time scale. Nevertheless, the prior complexation of a halide guest in the lower part of the host resulted in significant decrease of the exchange rate of the subsequent complexation of the TMA+ cation. Under these conditions, the 1H NMR signals characteristic of a slow exchange regime were observed at 298 K. Addition of an excess of salts, increases the ionic strength of the solution, restoring the fast exchange dynamics. This result provides insight on how the exchange rate of a cation guest can be modulated by the complexation of a co‐guest anion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article states that the Federal Reserve is considering keeping interest rates high for a longer period of time due to concerns about inflation and the labor market. Factors such as tightening financial market conditions and rising oil prices could also delay rate cuts. The article mentions an increase in the forecast for GDP growth this year, but notes signs of economic softening in some states. The focus of the Federal Reserve is on inflation and the composition of job growth, with an expected slight increase in the unemployment rate. This information is valuable for library patrons researching employment trends and forecasts. [Extracted from the article]

This paper investigates the role of firm‐to‐firm relationships in export market dynamics, documenting the following stylized facts for French exporters. First, exporters grow in a foreign market by expanding their customer base; the average French exporter doubles its number of buyers after 8 years. Second, sales to existing customers remain the predominant source of growth in a foreign market, with long‐lasting relationships contributing to most export values. Third, as a mechanism driving firms' growth in a relationship, prices fall as a relationship ages. Fourth, I exploit the Brexit referendum as a quasi‐natural experiment to examine how firm‐to‐firm relationships adjust in response to changes in market access. I find that French exporters with long‐lasting relationships in the UK are less affected by the referendum shock and exhibit higher exchange rate pass‐through. Overall, these findings indicate that long‐lasting relationships represent a crucial margin for export market growth and in shielding exporters from changing market conditions. This paper is part of the Economica 100 Series. Economica, the LSE "house journal" is now 100 years old. To commemorate this achievement, we are publishing 100 papers by former students, as well as current and former faculty. Davide Rigo is a Leverhulme Early Career Fellow at the LSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of political risk on exchange rates. We focus on the Brexit Referendum as it provides a natural experiment where both exchange rate expectations and a time‐varying political risk factor can be measured directly. We build a portfolio model that relates changes in the Leave probability to changes of the British pound's market price, both via expectations and via a political risk factor. We estimate the model for multilateral and bilateral British pound exchange rates. We find that the Leave probability predicts a depreciation of the pound, consistent with the outcome post‐referendum, and that the time‐varying political risk affects exchange rates independently. This paper is part of the Economica 100 Series. Economica, the LSE "house journal" is now 100 years old. To commemorate this achievement, we are publishing 100 papers by former students, as well as current and former faculty. Paolo Manasse obtained his MSc and PhD from the LSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to study the phased influencing factors of renminbi (RMB) exchange rate (CNY against USD) and investigate the predictability of the factors selected by multimodel. We first take the time points when China's main exchange reform policies are launched as the demarcation points and divide the entire sample from July 2005 to December 2020 into three periods. Then, we select the potential predictors using several sources, including all factors (without any selection), the factors selected by each of the five commonly used machine learning methods, the significantly correlated factors selected by traditional regression analysis method, and multimodel‐driven factors. Finally, we predict the exchange rate based on the above selected factors and compare the prediction results. The research results show that the main influencing factors are different in different periods, and the influence of phase events cannot be ignored. Even if their influence on the exchange rate has decreased as a result of the "811" exchange rate reform, the money supply and foreign exchange reserves continue to be the primary drivers of RMB exchange rates during the whole period of the sample. Additionally, RMB exchange rate forward is a robust influencing factor in all periods. By comparing the forecast errors, we find that the prediction accuracy of the factors selected based on multimodel is higher than that of the factors selected based on a single method or the tradition method. The findings of this paper provide the following insights for exchange rate managers: In exchange rate risk management, it is important to pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic factors such as foreign exchange reserves and the impact of staged events, and market expectations of exchange rates are equally important. At the technical level, it is recommended to improve the forecasting accuracy by forecasting exchange rates based on common factors selected by multiple better machine learning methods simultaneously rather than those selected by a single method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]