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This collaborative paper explores the interconnections between climate change and the mental health and well‐being of Indigenous women in Western Canada. As the impacts of climate change intensify globally, vulnerable populations, particularly Indigenous communities, face disproportionate and multifaceted challenges. Centering on Indigenous women in Western Canada, this study explores how the climate crisis magnifies Indigenous communities' mental health disparities. Drawing from the Indigenist feminist research approach, the investigation focuses on Indigenous women's lived experiences, perceptions, and land‐based coping strategies amidst climate challenges, while simultaneously addressing the unique social, cultural, and historical factors influencing their mental health vulnerabilities within the context of climate change. The findings shed light on the complex relationships between environmental degradation, ongoing colonial impacts on traditional practices, and the mental well‐being of Indigenous women. Concluding with implications for policy and community‐led interventions, this research contributes to the discourse on the intersectionality of climate change impacts and mental health, particularly focusing on Indigenous women in Western Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enhancing community capacity towards resilience is key to reducing climate disaster risk, especially in Black immigrant communities in Canada. While there are many extreme climate change events occurring, such as hailstorms, floods, snowstorms, forest fires, droughts, and heat waves in western Canada, there is no known study that has explored resilience within sub‐Saharan African immigrant communities to climate disaster risks in western Canada. All these extreme climate change events have devastated Black populations threatening their ability to cope with disaster risks. Following a decolonial phenomenology methodological framework research approach; our study explores sub‐Saharan African immigrant communities' adaptation strategies to address climate disaster risk in western Canada. In this research, our main purpose was to investigate whether community resilience strategies implemented by the two provinces (Saskatchewan and Alberta) meet the unique needs of sub‐Saharan African Immigrants. By exploring local communities' perspectives on climate change, we highlighted the relevance of inclusivity in climate capacity building to reduce disaster risk and cope with climate change‐related disasters in the localities. Our findings revealed that personal experiences with climate change risks significantly influenced communities' strength and resilience and contributed to their resilience strategies. We view this paper as a first step in developing a community‐led climate change resilience research agenda that will have a practical application for the community in the face of climate change in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Policy Studies Journal is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Arctic shelf seas are highly heterogeneous, making it difficult to accurately account for their role in regional and global air‐sea CO2 exchange budgets. Here we estimate the CO2 sink in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) based on empirical relationships that account for spatiotemporal variations in the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2sw) as a function of seasonal sea ice cycles. During the open water season from 2010 to 2016, the CAA acted as a net oceanic sink with an average CO2 flux of −7.7 ± 4 Tg C/year. This sink is significantly smaller than previous estimates for the CAA, emphasizing the importance of properly accounting for seasonal and spatial variability on Arctic shelves. Applying our analysis to a 37‐year record of sea ice conditions, we calculate an increase in the open water CO2 sink by ~150% (a trend of ~ −1.3 Tg C/decade), associated with sea ice loss and higher wind speeds. Plain Language Summary: Much of the carbon dioxide (CO2) humans put into the air ends up in the oceans. This is good because it slows down climate change but also bad because some creatures could be hurt by extra CO2. In the Arctic, it is hard to know how much CO2 is absorbed by the ocean, because the ocean is frozen for much of the year. In this paper, we try to figure out how much CO2 is going into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago—a shallow sea in northern Canada that is home to the famous Northwest Passage. We found that the amount of CO2 going into this sea is much lower than scientists thought before because they did not fully account for the ice. However, the amount of CO2 going into the sea each year is increasing, because sea ice is melting due to climate change. Key Points: The Canadian Arctic Archipelago acts as a net oceanic sink of CO2 during the open water season with an average uptake rate of 7.7 Tg C/yearAtmospheric CO2 uptake during the open water season has increased by 150% over 37 years due to sea ice loss and higher wind speedsEstimates of CO2 uptake on Arctic shelves must account for spatiotemporal variability in sea ice conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The rapidly changing Arctic is ideal for investigating uncertainties in climate projections. Despite the challenges of collecting data in this region, an unprecedented large‐scale survey of shorebirds has been conducted over the last 30 years. Our study aimed to (1) develop probabilistic estimates for the change in suitable habitat for 10 Arctic shorebird species in Canada by 2075 and (2) assess the contribution of modelling decisions to the uncertainty in these estimates. Location: Arctic Canada. Methods: To evaluate uncertainty, we considered six classes of modelling decisions, yielding 216 unique projections for each species. We tested three decisions that are less commonly explored − the pool of candidate variables, a method for selecting variables, and the maximum distance of tree line dispersal, as well as the modelling algorithm, carbon emissions scenario, and global circulation model. We used a bootstrapping approach, creating a probability distribution for the proportional change in suitable habitat for each species. Results: Our findings indicated a substantial risk for 8/10 species to lose over half of their suitable breeding habitat, but this projection is much less certain than has been described previously. While much uncertainty is unexplained, we were surprised that the largest source of uncertainty among our modelling decisions was from our choice of methods for variable selection, that the other modelling decisions were relatively small sources of uncertainty, overshadowing other modelling decisions. Main Conclusions: While most scenarios predict a northward shift and significant habitat loss for Arctic‐breeding shorebirds, the Arctic Archipelago of Canada will remain an important refuge because in many other Arctic regions, there is no land farther north for these species to shift into. A comprehensive understanding of uncertainty is important for deciding if future projections can or should be used when planning climate‐resilient protected area networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Geographer is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relation between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and cost of debt and to estimate the cost that lenders are imputing to GHG emissions. Data on GHG emissions were hand‐collected from Carbon Disclosure Project reports, whereas data on the cost of debt and other financial data were obtained from Bloomberg Professional database. Using a sample of Canadian firms, the results show that GHG emissions increase firms' cost of debt. In other words, for each additional tonne of GHG emissions, the cost of debt increases on average by 11–15%. These results imply that creditors incorporate firms' GHG emissions into their lending decisions and they penalize the polluting firms. This could encourage firms to reduce and manage their GHG emissions because there is a cost associated with these emissions. This study is one of the first to examine the relationship between GHG emissions and the cost of debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Pressures on water resources due to changing climate, increasing demands, and enhanced recognition of environmental flow needs result in the need for hydrology information to support informed water allocation decisions. However, the absence of hydrometric measurements and limited access to hydrology information in many areas impairs water allocation decision‐making. This paper describes a water balance‐based modeling approach and an innovative web‐based decision‐support hydrology tool developed to address this need. Using high‐resolution climate, vegetation, and watershed data, a simple gridded water balance model, adjusted to account for locational variability, was developed and calibrated against gauged watersheds, to model mean annual runoff. Mean monthly runoff was modeled empirically, using multivariate regression. The modeled annual runoff results are within 20% of the observed mean annual discharge for 78% of the calibration watersheds, with a mean absolute error of 16%. Modeled monthly runoff corresponds well to observed monthly runoff, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe statistic of 0.92 and a median Spearman rank correlation statistic of 0.98. Monthly and annual flow estimates produced from the model are incorporated into a map‐ and watershed‐based decision‐support system referred to as the Northeast Water Tool, to provide critical information to decision makers and others on natural water supply, existing allocations, and the needs of the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Algal bioindicators, such as diatoms, often show subdued responses to eutrophication in Arctic lakes because climate‐related changes (e.g., ice cover) tend to be the overriding factors influencing assemblage composition. Here, we examined how sub‐Arctic ponds historically receiving high nutrient inputs from nesting seabirds have responded to recent climate change. We present diatom data obtained from 12 sediment cores in seaduck‐affected ponds located on islands through Hudson Strait, Canada. All study cores show consistently elevated values of sedimentary ẟ15N, an established proxy for tracking marine‐derived nutrients, indicating seabirds have been present on these islands for at least the duration of the sediment records (~100 to 400 years). We document diverse epiphytic diatom assemblages to the base of all sediment cores, which is in marked contrast to seabird‐free Arctic ponds—these oligotrophic sites typically record epilithic diatom flora prior to recent warming. Diatoms are likely responding indirectly to seabird nutrients via habitat as nutrients promote the growth of mosses supporting epiphytic diatom communities. This masks the typical diatom response to increased warming in the Arctic, which also results in habitat changes and the growth of mosses around the pond edges. Changes in sedimentary chlorophyll a were not consistently synchronous with large changes in ẟ15N values, suggesting that primary production in ponds is not responding linearly to changes in seabird‐derived nitrogen. Across all ponds, we recorded shifts in diatom epiphytic assemblages (e.g., increases in % relative abundance of many Nitzschia species) that often align with increases in chlorophyll a. The changes in diatoms and chlorophyll a, although variable, are most likely driven by climate change as they are generally consistent with longer ice‐free conditions and growing seasons. Together, our results show that to effectively use diatoms in animal population reconstructions across the sub‐Arctic and Arctic, a strong understanding of eutrophication and climate change, based on supplementary proxies, is also required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate adaptation is a complex policy area, in which knowledge, authority, and resources are fragmented among numerous public agencies, multiple levels of government, and a wide range of nongovernmental actors. Mobilizing and coordinating disparate public and private efforts is a key challenge in this policy domain, and this has focused research attention on the governance of adaptation, including the dynamics of interaction among interests and the institutions that facilitate collective action. This paper contributes to the study of adaptation governance by adopting the policy regimes perspective, an analytical framework designed to make sense of the loose governing arrangements surrounding complex, fragmented problems. The perspective's constructs are applied to a longitudinal case study of adaptation governance in Canada, which identifies, analyzes, and evaluates the policy ideas, institutions, and interests that comprise Canada's adaptation policy regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent flood events in Canada have led to speculation that changes in flood behaviour are occurring; these changes have often been attributed to climate change. This paper examines flood data for a collection of 132 gauging stations in Canada. All of these watersheds are part of the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN), a group of gauging stations specifically assembled to assist in the identification of the impacts of climate change. The RHBN stations are considered to have good quality data and were screened to avoid the influences of regulation, diversions, or land use change. Daily flow data for each watershed are used to derive a peaks over threshold (POT) dataset. Several measures of flood behaviour are examined based on the POT data, which afford a more in-depth analysis of flood behaviour than can be obtained using annual maxima data. Analysis is conducted for four time periods ranging from 50 to 80 years in duration; the latter period results in a much smaller number of watersheds that have data for the period. The changes in flood responses of the watersheds are summarized by grouping the watersheds by size (small, medium, and large) and also by hydrologic regime (nival, mixed, and pluvial). The results provide important insights into the nature of the changes that are occurring in flood regimes of Canadian rivers, which include more flood exceedances, reduced maximum flood exceedance magnitudes for snowmelt events, and earlier flood events. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near‐surface wedges of massive ice commonly outline polygons in tundra lowlands, but such polygons have been difficult to identify on hillslopes because soil movement flattens the ridges and infills the troughs that form beside and above the ice wedges. Over the past three decades, the active layer has thickened near the western Arctic coast of Canada and consequent thawing of ice wedges has been detected by remote sensing for flat terrain but not, generally, on hillslopes. Annual field surveys (1996–2018) at the Illisarvik field site of thaw depth and ground surface elevation show the mean subsidence rate above hillslope ice wedges has been up to 32 mm a−1 since thaw depth reached the ice‐wedge tops in 2007. Annual mean ground temperatures at the site are about −3.0°C beneath late‐winter snow depths characteristic of the ice‐wedge troughs but about −5.3°C under conditions of the intervening polygons. The rate of thaw subsidence is high for natural, subaerial disturbances because meltwater from the ice wedges runs off downslope. The rate is constant, because the thickness of seasonally thawed ground above the ice wedges and the ice content of the ground remain the same while the troughs develop. Observations of changes in surface elevation in northern Banks Island between the late 1970s and 2019 show troughs on hillslopes where none was previously visible. Development of these troughs creates regional thermokarst landscapes, distinct from the widely recognized results of thawing relict glacier ice, that are now widespread over Canada's western Arctic coastlands. Recognition of ice‐wedge occurrence and accelerated thaw subsidence on hillslopes is important in the design of infrastructure proposed for construction in rolling permafrost terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many tree species distribution models use black‐box machine learning techniques that often neglect interpretative aspects and instead focus mainly on maximizing predictive accuracy. In this study, we outline an interpretative modelling framework to gain better ecological insights while mapping abundance patterns of six North American species. Location: Continental United States and Canada. Methods: We develop an innovative procedure using regression trees by stabilizing variance, and mapping dominant rules which we term 'optimized regression tree bagging for interpretation and mapping' (ORTBIM). We apply this technique to understand ecological features influencing the abundance patterns of three eastern (Pinus strobus, Acer saccharum and Quercus montana), and three western (Picea engelmannii, Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree species in North America. For these species, we assess and map the dominant climate–terrain interactions that partly determine abundance patterns in the eastern and western regions. In the process, we examine the role of varying responses and scales and explore finer‐scale species climate–terrain niches and non‐linear relationships. Results: Our study emphasizes the prominent role of elevation and heat–moisture variables in the west and the greater importance of seasonal precipitation and seasonal temperature in the east. The abundance patterns under future climate (SSP5‐8.5) show climate–terrain habitats shifting northward and westward into Canada and Alaska for the eastern species, and predominantly north‐westward for the western species. Conclusion: Our interpretative modelling framework can be used to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the abundance patterns across the full species range, formulate better predictive models and facilitate improved management practices under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate‐driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal‐dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species‐specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate‐sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will require the cessation of fossil fuel emissions into the atmosphere, yet the need for 'fuel' and energy storage will remain. One solution could be a carbon‐based fuel system where CO2 of biogenic origin is converted to fuels using hydrogen generated by electrolysis powered by renewable energy sources. Methane has value as an initial target given its prevalence in biogas, use in home heating and in electricity generation. Sources of CO2 in Eastern Canada are dominated by the iron and steel, cement, and aluminium industries, all of which have biogenic fuel options. Collecting all of the potentially biogenic CO2 would displace 75% of current natural gas use and require a 50% increase in generating capacity. Initial efforts could site a carbon capture, utilization, and storage facility near Montreal, QC, with other large‐scale facilities near Hamilton, ON, and Lac St‐Jean, QC. These facilities would be grid connected and expected to operate ~6200 h annually. The most high‐frequency electrolysis events would be 10 h of run time and 2 h of idle time. These periods would peak during the equinox months and be at a minimum during the winter solstice. These operational assumptions will all be subject to the increased variability caused by anthropogenic climate change and increased renewable generation on the grid. A closed‐loop carbon‐based fuel system would require an equivalent price of $250 per tonne CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental impacts on fisheries are pervasive, yet methods to account for them in stock assessments and management decisions vary in rigour and quality. The prevalence and efficacy of methods to account for environmental impacts are not well documented, limiting our ability to adequately respond to future environmental and climate changes for adaptive resource management. In Canada, legislation now requires that environmental conditions are considered in the management of fish stocks, yet the current extent of implementation in assessment processes is poorly understood. We assessed the use of climate, oceanographic and ecological considerations in science advisory processes for 178 stock assessments by Fisheries and Oceans Canada. We evaluated whether these considerations were included in conceptual hypotheses about broad‐scale mechanisms, quantitative or qualitative analyses, and the development of management advice on current or future stock status. Conceptual hypotheses were included in 46% of assessments; quantitative inclusions occurred in 21% of assessments, while qualitative interpretations appeared in 31% of assessments; and 27% of assessments included climate, oceanographic and/or ecological considerations in the advice. Assessments of salmonids, invertebrates and pelagic taxa more frequently made use of environmental data than those for groundfish and elasmobranchs. Comparing our findings with assessments in other jurisdictions highlighted a gap in Canada's ability to respond to environmental changes and a need to develop integrated management approaches, such as regional ecosystem assessments and approaches that combine modelling and empirical analyses, with socio‐economic analysis within interdisciplinary teams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrology and soil thermal regime of 10 sub‐arctic watersheds (northern Manitoba, Canada) using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We utilize statistically downscaled and bias‐corrected forcing datasets based on 17 general circulation model (GCM) ‐ representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to run the VIC model for three 30‐year periods: a historical baseline (1981–2010: 1990s), and future projections (2021–2050: 2030s and 2041–2070: 2050s), under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Future warming increases the average soil column temperature by ~2.2°C in the 2050s and further analyses of soil temperature trends at three different depths show the most pronounced warming in the top soil layer (1.6°C 30‐year−1 in the 2050s). Trend estimates of mean annual frozen soil moisture fraction in the soil column show considerable changes from 0.02 30‐year−1 (1990s) to −0.11 30‐year−1 (2050s) across the study area. Soil column water residence time decreases significantly (by 5 years) during the 2050s when compared with the 1990s as soil thawing intensifies the infiltration process thereby contributing to faster conversion to baseflow. Future warming results in 40%–50% more baseflow by the 2050s, where it increases substantially by 19.7% and 46.3% during the 2030s and 2050s, respectively. These results provide crucial information on the potential future impacts of warming soil temperatures on the hydrology of sub‐arctic watersheds in north‐central Canada and similar hydro‐climatic regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few records of spring paleoclimate are available for boreal Canada, as biological proxies recording the beginning of the warm season are uncommon. Given the spring warming observed during the last decades, and its impact on snowmelt and hydrological processes, searching for spring climate proxies is receiving increasing attention. Tree‐ring anatomical features and intra‐annual widths were used to reconstruct the regional March to May mean air temperature from 1770 to 2016 in eastern boreal Canada. Nested principal component regressions calibrated on 116 years of gridded temperature data were developed from one Fraxinus nigra and 10 Pinus banksiana sites. The reconstruction indicated three distinct phases in spring temperature variability since 1770. Ample phases of multi‐decadal warm and cold springs persisted until the end of the Little Ice Age (1850–1870 CE) and were gradually replaced since the 1940s by decadal to interannual variability associated with an increase in the frequency and magnitude of warm springs. Significant correlations with other paleotemperature records, gridded snow cover extent and runoff support that historical high flooding were associated with late, cold springs with heavy snow cover. Most of the high magnitude spring floods reconstructed for the nearby Harricana River also coincided with the lowest reconstructed spring temperature per decade. However, the last 40 years of observed and reconstructed mean spring temperature showed a reduction in the number of extreme cold springs contrasting with the last few decades of extreme flooding in the eastern Canadian boreal region. This result indicates that warmer late spring mean temperatures on average may contribute, among other factors, to advance the spring break‐up and to likely shift the contribution of snow to rain in spring flooding processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catchment storage‐release relation has been widely studied using the parameters of streamflow recession analysis. The governing factors of the recession parameters are poorly understood, particularly in snow‐dominated regions. Here, we tailor a newly developed statistical approach, marginal contribution feature importance, to a hydrologic context, and couple it with random forests, in order to investigate the governing physical and climatic factors of catchment recession behaviour. The coupled approach can incorporate the interactions among catchment climatic and physical attributes. In a large sample hydrology study, we identify and compare the governing factors of recession parameters, in rainfall versus snowmelt‐dominated catchments, and in medium‐size versus large catchments, across more than 1000 catchments in United States and Canada. Results show that streamflow recession behaviour, particularly recession nonlinearity, strongly depend on belowground attributes and slope in rain‐dominated medium size catchments, and strongly depend on slope and annual maximum snow water equivalent in snow‐dominated medium size catchments. As catchment scale increases (>1000 km2), the attributes related to the magnitude and timing of input water (e.g., water surplus, aridity index, maximum snow water equivalent) dictates the streamflow recession behaviour and the importance of belowground attributes is dropped. Furthermore, recession nonlinearity generally increases with an increase in catchment size. The findings of this study help improve our understanding of the governing factors and the interpretation of the spatial variability of recession behaviours. Such understanding could inform the development of a generalizable process‐based framework for estimating the sensitivity of catchment storage‐release relation to climate change in different environmental settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern circumpolar permafrost region is experiencing considerable warming due to climate change, which is allowing agricultural production to expand into regions of discontinuous and continuous permafrost. The conversion of forests to arable land might further enhance permafrost thaw and affect soil organic carbon (SOC) that had previously been protected by frozen ground. The interactive effect of permafrost abundance and deforestation on SOC stocks has hardly been studied. In this study, soils were sampled on 18 farms across the Yukon on permafrost and non‐permafrost soils to quantify the impact of land‐use change from forest to cropland and grassland on SOC stocks. Furthermore, the soils were physically and chemically fractionated to assess the impact of land‐use change on different functional pools of SOC. On average, permafrost‐affected forest soils lost 15.6 ± 21.3% of SOC when converted to cropland and 23.0 ± 13.0% when converted to grassland. No permafrost was detected in the deforested soils, indicating that land‐use change strongly enhanced warming and subsequent thawing. In contrast, the change in SOC at sites without permafrost was not significant but had a slight tendency to be positive. SOC stocks were generally lower at sites without permafrost under forest. Furthermore, land‐use change increased mineral‐associated SOC, while the fate of particulate organic matter (POM) after land‐use change depended on permafrost occurrence. Permafrost soils showed significant POM losses after land‐use change, while grassland sites without permafrost gained POM in the topsoil. The results showed that the fate of SOC after land‐use change greatly depended on the abundance of permafrost in the pristine forest, which was driven by climatic conditions more than by soil properties. It can be concluded that in regions of discontinuous permafrost in particular, initial conditions in forest soils should be considered before deforestation to minimize its climate impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freezing rain events have caused severe socioeconomic and ecosystem impacts. An understanding of how these events may evolve as the Earth warms is necessary to adequately adapt infrastructure to these changes. We present an analysis of projected changes to freezing rain events over North America relative to the 1980–2009 recent past climate for the periods during which +2, +3, and +4°C of global warming is attained. We diagnose freezing rain using four precipitation‐type algorithms (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, and Baldwin) applied to four simulations of the fifth‐generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by four global climate models (GCMs). We find that the choice of driving GCM strongly influences the spatial pattern of projected change. The choice of algorithm has a comparatively smaller impact, and primarily affects the magnitude but not the sign of projected change. We identify several regions where all simulations and algorithms agree on the sign of change, with increases projected over portions of western Canada and decreases over the central, eastern, and southern United States. However, we also find large regions of disagreement on the sign of change depending on driving GCM and even ensemble member of the same GCM, highlighting the importance of examining freezing rain events in a multi‐member ensemble of simulations driven by multiple GCMs to sufficiently account for uncertainty in projections of these hazardous events. Plain Language Summary: Freezing rain events, or ice storms, can have major impacts on electrical infrastructure, agriculture, and road and air travel. Despite these impacts, relatively little research has been done on how these events may change as the Earth warms. We therefore examine several climate model simulations to determine how the frequency of freezing rain may change at different levels of future global warming. We focus in particular on how sensitive the projected changes are to the method used to identify freezing rain in the model output, as well as to the choice of climate model used to produce the projections. We find strong agreement among methods and models on a decrease in freezing rain frequency over much of the United States (from Texas northeastward to Maine) and an increase in freezing rain frequency over portions of western Canada (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba). In many other areas, however, the different methods and simulations disagree on the direction of projected change. Our findings highlight the importance of using many different climate models, rather than single simulations, to paint a clearer picture of the level of certainty in projections of freezing rain in the context of global warming. Key Points: Freezing rain is projected to increase in frequency over portions of western and central Canada and decrease over most of the United StatesThe sign of projected changes is not highly sensitive to the precipitation‐type algorithm used to diagnose freezing rainThe choice of driving global climate model is a key source of uncertainty in both the sign and magnitude of projected changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The concept of global citizenship aims to prepare learners to be able to function and be competitive within a global environment. Successful learners may effectively "think globally" but "act locally," aiming to contribute to positive global change. Objective: The goal of this project was to develop research‐informed curricular content for global citizenship tailored to pharmacy students using a pre‐established pedagogical framework. The intended learning outcome for the content was for students to "generate local responses to global problems for a more peaceful and sustainable world." Methods: This study occurred over three phases. Phase 1 consisted of semi‐structured interviews with practicing pharmacists in Brazil (n = 4), Canada (n = 4), New Zealand (n = 4), and Qatar (n = 4) to identify global issues for case development. Phase 2 consisted of pilot testing developed cases from Phase 1 via individual interviews with target students in Canada (n = 2) and a focus group in New Zealand (n = 5). Phase 3 consisted of implementation of a 1.5‐hours teaching event in New Zealand using the refined case material and formative assessment of final‐year pharmacy students (n = 120). Results: Phase 1 resulted in five case scenarios (antimicrobial resistance, drug shortages, ocean pollution, climate change, and rise of nationalism) across three categories (global health and wellbeing, climate and environment, and geopolitics and power) that were tested and refined in Phase 2. Phase 3 resulted in student groups being able to achieve the intended learning outcome on a median of 4 (range, 2‐5) of the developed cases. Students' interventions included new dispensing models, use of technology, community engagement, education initiatives, and others. Conclusion: Findings support the notion that when tasked to "think globally," students are able to "act locally" by designing pharmacy practice interventions to reduce the impact of political, environmental, and health‐related global problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Statistics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

With the objective of trying to understand the adaptability of agriculture across the Canadian Prairies under climate change, simple‐to‐use agroclimatic indices were calculated for the base climate period of 1981 to 2010 and for both the medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission projections extending to the distant future (2071–2100). The agroclimatic indices included the Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDDs), Growing Season Length (GSL), the Climate Moisture Index (CMI), and the Temperature Humidity Index (THI). For climate change in 30‐year periods, these indices were calculated as multi‐model ensembles of six Global Climate Models recommended under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the study area. We found that the GSL, EGDDs, CMI, and THI were amplified above the values of the base climate period in the order of 40–50 days, 600–1200 heat units, −100 to −120 mm and 3–4 THI units by the close of the distant future (2071–2100) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This amplification has implications on where crop and livestock production could become more suitable or riskier in future. Opportunities include expanding crop and livestock production to more northerly regions which currently have insufficient heat units, a short growing season and unfavourable temperature humidity thresholds for livestock production. Moisture deficits will continue to be the greatest risk during the growing season under climate change scenarios but options exist to implement adaptive measures such as staggering seeding times to take advantage of moisture availability in the spring and autumn seasons and crop substitution. This study has relevance for policy and program formulation and implementation in Canada's agricultural regions and potentially, other areas of the world with similar climate change outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change can affect tree growth in boreal forests. Periodic insect outbreaks affect the growth trajectory of trees, making it difficult to quantify the climate signal in growth dynamics at scales longer than a year. We studied climate‐driven growth trends and the influence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks on these trends by analyzing the basal area increment (BAI) of 2058 trees of Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, Thuja occidentalis L., Populus tremuloides Michx., and Betula papyrifera Marsh, which co‐occurs in the boreal mixedwood forests of western Quebec. We used a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to analyze species‐specific trends in BAI dynamics from 1967 to 1991. The model relied on tree size, cambial age, degree of spruce budworm defoliation, and seasonal climatic variables. Overall, we observed a decreasing growth rate of the spruce budworm host species, A. balsamea and P. glauca between 1967 and 1991, and an increasing growth rate for the non‐host, P. tremuloides, B. papyrifera, and T. occidentalis. Our results suggest that insect outbreaks may offset growth increases resulting from a warmer climate. The observation warrants the inclusion of the spruce budworm defoliation into models predicting future forest productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses a significant threat to Arctic freshwater biodiversity, but impacts depend upon the strength of organism response to climate‐related drivers. Currently, there is insufficient knowledge about Arctic freshwater biodiversity patterns to guide assessment, prediction, and management of biodiversity change.As part of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program's first freshwater assessment, we evaluated diversity of diatoms, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish in North American Arctic rivers. Alpha diversity was assessed in relation to temperature, water chemistry, bedrock geology, and glaciation history to identify important environmental correlates. Biotic composition was compared among groups to evaluate response to environmental gradients.Macroinvertebrate α‐diversity declined strongly with increasing latitude from 48°N to 82°N, whereas diatom and fish diversity peaked around 70°N without a clear latitudinal decline. Macroinvertebrate diversity was significantly positively related to air temperature. Diatom diversity was related to bedrock geology and temperature, whereas fish diversity was related to glaciation history.Fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages differed between sites in western Canada, where invertebrate composition was more variable, and Alaska, where fish composition was more variable. In sites with both diatom and macroinvertebrate data, diatom composition was distinct in Alaska, where richness was highest in former glacial refugia. Macroinvertebrate composition was distinct in lowest‐latitude eastern and high‐latitude western Canadian sites where temperature was highest.Temperature, precipitation, geology, calcium, and substrate size were important environmental correlates for diatoms and macroinvertebrates, although the relative importance of each correlate differed. Diatom taxa were most strongly associated with water chemistry, whereas benthic invertebrate composition related most strongly to precipitation and temperature.This large‐scale study provides the most substantial integration and analysis of river diatom, macroinvertebrate, and fish data from the North American Arctic to date. Findings suggest that macroinvertebrates will show the strongest response to climate‐related shifts in temperature, whereas diatoms and fish are more likely to respond to climate‐induced shifts in nutrients and hydraulic connectivity. However, significant gaps in data coverage limited our ability to reliably evaluate spatial patterns and detect change. These gaps could be reduced by improving collaborative efforts between the U.S.A. and Canada to harmonise future monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1960, landings of Atlantic herring have been the greatest of any marine species in Canada, surpassing Atlantic cod and accounting for 24% of the total seafood harvested in Atlantic Canada. The Scotian Shelf‐Bay of Fundy herring fisheries (NAFO Division 4VWX) is among Canada's oldest and drives this productivity, accounting for up to 75% of the total herring catch in some years. The stocks' productivity and overall health have declined since 1965. Despite management measures to promote recovery implemented since 2003, biomass remains low and is declining. The factors that drive the productivity of 4VWX herring are primarily unresolved, likely impeding the effectiveness of management actions on this stock. We evaluated potential drivers of herring variability by analyzing 52 time‐series that describe the temporal and spatial evolution of the 4VWX herring population and the physical, ecological, and anthropogenic factors that could affect them using structural equation models. Variation in herring biomass was best accounted for by the exploitation rate's negative effect and the geographic distribution of fishing and recruitment. Thermal phenology and temperature adversely and egg predation positively impacted the early life stage mortality rate and, ultimately, adult biomass. These findings are broadly relevant to fisheries management, but particularly for 4VWX herring, where the current management approach does not consider their early life stage dynamics or assess them within the ecosystem or climate change contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Pleistocene glacial cycles influenced the diversification of high‐latitude wildlife species through recurrent periods of range contraction, isolation, divergence, and expansion from refugia and subsequent admixture of refugial populations. We investigate population size changes and the introgressive history of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in western Canada using 33 whole genome sequences coupled with larger‐scale mitochondrial data. We found that a major population expansion of caribou occurred starting around 110,000 years ago (kya), the start of the last glacial period. Additionally, we found effective population sizes of some caribou reaching ~700,000 to 1,000,000 individuals, one of the highest recorded historical effective population sizes for any mammal species thus far. Mitochondrial analyses dated introgression events prior to the LGM dating to 20–30 kya and even more ancient at 60 kya, coinciding with colder periods with extensive ice coverage, further demonstrating the importance of glacial cycles and events prior to the LGM in shaping demographic history. Reconstructing the origins and differential introgressive history has implications for predictions on species responses under climate change. Our results have implications for other whole genome analyses using pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) analyses, as well as highlighting the need to investigate pre‐LGM demographic patterns to fully reconstruct the origin of species diversity, especially for high‐latitude species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has emerged as an increasingly important threat to freshwater systems. To cope with rapidly changing thermal regimes, freshwater fishes must either relocate or adjust through genetic adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity. Short‐term responses to elevated water temperature have been well studied in freshwater fishes; however, far less is understood about change induced by long‐term exposure. Furthermore, few studies have investigated the effects of temperature on already imperilled species, which may be more sensitive to environmental change.This study investigated the effects of rearing temperature on critical thermal maximum (CTmax), agitation temperature (Tag, temperature at which fish show behavioural signs of thermal stress) and gill size in pugnose shiner, Notropis anogenus, a threatened species in Canada. Juvenile pugnose shiner were reared for 4 months across five different ecologically relevant temperatures. CTmax and Tag were measured under normoxia and acute exposure to hypoxia to test for oxygen sensitivity of the upper thermal limits in this species.CTmax increased with elevated water temperature. Tag also increased with rearing temperature and occurred, on average, 4.3°C above acclimation temperatures. The CTmax and Tag were lower when fish were exposed acutely to hypoxia. Interestingly, gill size (e.g. total gill filament length) increased with rearing temperature, which may increase oxygen uptake capacity and support increased metabolic demands of warmer waters.Overall, pugnose shiner show plasticity in several traits in response to long‐term exposure to elevated water temperature that may facilitate persistence in warmer waters. However, acute hypoxia exposure reduced thermal tolerance, stressing the importance of evaluating interactive effects of multiple stressors.Identifying source populations of pugnose shiner with greater thermal tolerance or implementing captive breeding under higher temperature regimes may improve the success of re‐introduction efforts in the face of climate change, but the consequences to fitness of increased thermal tolerance should be examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Geographer is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Global commitments to protected area expansion should prioritize opportunities to protect climate refugia and ecosystems which store high levels of irrecoverable carbon, as key components of an effective response to biodiversity loss and climate change. The United States and Canada are responsible for one‐sixth of global greenhouse gas emissions but hold extensive natural ecosystems that store globally significant above‐ and below‐ground carbon. Canada has initiated a process of protected area network expansion in concert with efforts at reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and acknowledged nature‐based solutions as a key aspect of climate change mitigation. The US, although not a party to global biodiversity conventions, has recently committed to protecting 30% of its extent by 2030 and achieving the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's mitigation targets. The opportunities afforded by these dual biodiversity conservation and climate commitments require coordinated national and regional policies to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity‐focused adaptation and nature‐based mitigation opportunities. We address how global commitments can best inform national policy initiatives which build on existing agency mandates for regional planning and species conservation. Previous analyses of global conservation priorities under climate change have been tenuously linked to policy contexts of individual nations and have lacked information on refugia due to limitations of globally available datasets. Comparison and synthesis of predictions from a range of recently developed refugia metrics allow such data to inform planning despite substantial uncertainty arising from contrasting model assumptions and inputs. A case study for endangered species planning for old‐forest‐associated species in the US Pacific Northwest demonstrates how regional planning can be nested hierarchically within national biodiversity‐focused adaptation and nature‐based mitigation strategies which integrate refugia, connectivity, and ecosystem carbon metrics to holistically evaluate the role of different land designations and where carbon mitigation and protection of biodiversity's resilience to climate change can be aligned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations with a one‐dimensional heat transfer model (TONE) were performed to reproduce the near surface ground temperature regime in the four main types of soil profiles found in Narsajuaq River Valley (Nunavik, Canada) for the period 1990–2100. The permafrost thermal regime was simulated using climate data from a reanalysis (1948–2002), climate stations (1989–1991, 2002–2019) and simulations based on climate warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2019–2100). The model was calibrated based on extensive field measurements made between 1989 and 2019. The results were used to estimate when soil thermal contraction cracking will eventually stop and to forecast the melting of ice wedges due to active‐layer thickening. For the period 1990–2019, all soil profiles experienced cracking every year until 2006, when cracking became intermittent during a warm period before completely stopping in 2009–2010, after which cracking resumed during colder years. Ice‐wedge tops melted from 1992 to 2010 as the active layer thickened, indicating that top‐down ice‐wedge degradation can occur simultaneously with cracking and growth in width. Our predictions show that ice wedges in the valley will completely stop cracking between 2024 and 2096, first in sandy soils and later in soils with thicker organic horizons. The timing will also depend on greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. All ice wedges in the study area will probably experience some degradation of their main body before the end of the century, causing their roots to become relict ice by the end of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mountainous watersheds of western Canada are generally thought to be in a state of transition from snow‐dominated to hybrid regimes. In stream networks that are regulated, the effects of this transition on streamflow can have compelling operational consequences. Seasonal magnitude changes may impact spill‐risk management, while changes in the composition of summer runoff may increase its variability and reduce the forecasting capabilities of state variables like peak snow water equivalent. Though glacier loss can have a considerable impact on summer runoff, few studies explicitly model the ongoing glacier recession in conjunction with other primary hydrological processes. In this study, we incorporate glacier dynamics from a previous run of the Regional Glaciation Model into the University of British Columbia Watershed Model via the Raven modelling framework. We use this modelling system to explore potential changes under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 to the hydrology of the ∼20000km2 Mica Basin, a regulated watershed containing the headwaters of the Columbia River. Our results project statistically significant increases in spring flow in future eras, which may force lower reservoir drafting in late winter, creating potential for energy shortfalls in early spring. We project the coefficient of variation of summer runoff generally goes unchanged in future eras as does the summer runoff forecasting capability of April 1st SWE. Hence, despite modelled glacier loss and reduced snowmelt contribution, our study does not reject the null hypothesis that the predictability of the Mica Basin's summer runoff is unchanged in future eras. We explore these results in detail because they superficially appear to contrast the conventional conceptualization that reduced snowmelt negatively affects the predictive powers of snowpack and glacier loss increases the variability of runoff. We argue that our results' apparent discordance from convention displays the complexities inherent in isolating the effects of changes to a single water balance component when other components are also non‐stationary and highlights the benefits of using modelling to more explicitly explore such implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the effects of constructions and mobilisations of childhood, generation and girl heroism in 30 Canadian editorials written in response to 2019 climate change protests. We discuss how the editorials strategically position—and sometimes dismiss—young activists through discourses of childhood innocence, becoming and social participation. Second, we focus on how the editorials mobilise generation to emphasise either generational division or cross‐generational solidarity. Finally, we problematise the editorials' concentration on individualised girl heroism. We thus contextualise and deconstruct truth statements around age, generation and heroism, emphasising instead their effects and the potential for certain narratives to better recognise the diversity and solidarity in climate change activism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest monitoring studies show contrasting trends in tree growth rates since the mid‐twentieth century. However, due to their focus on annual and decadal dynamics, they provide limited insight into the effects of long‐term climatic variability on tree growth. Here, we relied on a large tree‐ring dataset (∼2,700 trees) of two common North American shade‐intolerant tree species, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lambert), to assess their lifespan‐long growth dynamics in the mixedwood forests of Québec. We also determined how the environmental conditions of the stands influenced tree growth. We observed a significant increase in the radial growth rate of trembling aspen during the study period, while the jack pine decline was not significant. Over the whole study region, the trees growing in sites with lower competition, and those at the lower sections of the terrain slope experienced more of the positive effects of temperature on growth rates. Our study suggests that the tree growth response to climate warming may be species‐specific and will vary across the boreal mixedwoods. Key Points: Climate warming impacts long‐term tree growth in the boreal mixedwoodsGrowth response to climate warming is species‐specificStand conditions modulate the tree growth responses to climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In spring 2011, an unprecedented flood hit the complex eastern United States (U.S.)–Canada transboundary Lake Champlain–Richelieu River (LCRR) Basin, destructing properties and inducing negative impacts on agriculture and fish habitats. The damages, covered by the Governments of Canada and the U.S., were estimated to C$90M. This natural disaster motivated the study of mitigation measures to prevent such disasters from reoccurring. When evaluating flood risks, long‐term evolving climate change should be taken into account to adopt mitigation measures that will remain relevant in the future. To assess the impacts of climate change on flood risks of the LCRR basin, three bias‐corrected multi‐resolution ensembles of climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used to force a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution, distributed hydrological model. The analysis of the hydrological simulations indicates that the 20‐year return period flood (corresponding to a medium flood) should decrease between 8% and 35% for the end of the 21st Century (2070–2099) time horizon and for the high‐emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The reduction in flood risks is explained by a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration expected with the future warming of the region. Nevertheless, due to the large climate inter‐annual variability, short‐term flood probabilities should remain similar to those experienced in the recent past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sage Thrasher (Oreoscoptes montanus) has been assessed as "Endangered" in Canada since 1992. Like other species with a geographic range that barely extends into Canada, Sage Thrashers are rare. Thirty‐one percent of Canada's bird species listed for recovery under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA) are at the periphery of their range. A listing of "endangered" under SARA requires identification of critical habitat for the species. With anticipated climate change, recovery of species requires a more proactive intervention than relying on historical occurrence to locate suitable habitat. We synthesized 19 years of Sage Thrasher occurrence and related habitat data across the species' northern range in British Columbia (BC) and Washington (WA) to define critical habitat characteristics. We found Sage Thrashers selected less leaf litter and less grass cover in flat or low‐slope regions farther from anthropogenic or natural habitat breaks; habitat sensitive to the expected climate change impacts of fire, changes in precipitation, and invasive species establishment. By augmenting the BC data collected in the species' peripheral range with data from their core distribution in WA, we identified key habitat elements of an otherwise data‐poor species that do not breed in sufficient numbers in Canada to reliably characterize their habitat. These methods improve the identification of "critical habitat" for peripheral species like Sage Thrashers in preparation for climate‐induced range expansion northward. The framework developed demonstrates a useful template for conservation strategies for data‐limited peripheral populations in other regions. Focusing on the landscape‐level variables that indicate good habitat, and not the locations of habitat, can identify suitable future areas for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To evaluate current and future dynamics of 25 tree species spanning United States and Canada. Location: United States and Canada. Methods: We combine, for the first time, the species compositions from relative importance derived from the USA's Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) with gridded estimates based on Canada's National Forest Inventory (NFI‐kNN))‐based photo plot data to evaluate future habitats and colonization potentials for 25 tree species. Using 21 climatic variables under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, we model climatic habitat suitability (HQ) within a consensus‐based multimodel ensemble regression approach. A migration model is used to assess colonization likelihoods (CL) for ~100 years and combined with HQ to evaluate the various combinations of HQ + CL outcomes for the 25 species. Results: At a continental scale, many species in the conterminous United States lose suitable climatic habitat (especially under RCP 8.5) while Canada and USA's Alaska gain climate habitat. For most species, even under optimistic migration rates, only a small portion of overall future suitable habitat is projected to be naturally colonized in ~100 years, although considerable variation exists among species. Main conclusions: For the species examined here, habitat losses were primarily experienced along southern range limits, while habitat gains were associated with northern range limits (especially under RCP 8.5). However, for many species, southern range limits are projected to remain relatively intact, albeit with reduced habitat quality. Our models predict that only a small portion of the climatic habitat generated by climate change will be colonized naturally by the end of the current century—even with optimistic tree migration rates. However, considerable variation among species points to the need for significant management efforts, including assisted migration, for economic or ecological reasons. Our work highlights the need to employ range‐wide data, evaluate colonization potentials and enhance cross‐border collaborations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decline in size‐at‐age of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) has been observed for many populations across the entire Northeast Pacific Ocean, and identifying external drivers of this decline is important for sustainable management of these ecologically, economically, and culturally valuable resources. We assessed size‐at‐age of 96,939 Chinook Salmon sampled in the Fraser River watershed (Canada) from 1969 to 2017. A broad decline in size‐at‐age was confirmed across all population aggregates of Fraser River Chinook Salmon, in particular since year 2000. By developing a novel probability‐based approach to calculate age‐ and year‐specific growth rates for Fraser River Chinook Salmon and relating growth rates to environmental conditions in specific years through a machine learning method (boosted regression trees), we were able to disentangle multi‐year effects on size‐at‐age and thus identify environmental factors that were most related to the observed size‐at‐age of Chinook Salmon. Among 10 selected environmental variables, ocean salinity at Entrance Island in spring, the Aleutian Low Pressure Index and the North Pacific Current Bifurcation Index were consistently identified as important contributors for four of the seven age and population aggregate combinations. These top environmental contributors could be incorporated into future stock assessment and forecast models to improve Chinook Salmon fisheries management under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores how art and design education can contribute to the imperative of climate change and help societies adapt to living more sustainably. Drawing on methods from arts‐based research and qualitative case study, it reports on an investigation into what can be learned from creating environmental art installations with preservice teachers (those training to be K‐12 teachers), as part of an environmental art education programme in a leading Canadian university. Findings support that preservice teachers experienced behavioural and attitudinal shifts towards sustainability after engaging in the processes of creating environmental art; involvement in the programme also provided opportunities for building community, engaging multiple domains of learning, modelling sustainable art‐making practices and prompting environmental activism. The results of this study inform a developing pedagogy for environmental art education in higher education settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To predict whether populations of marine animals will persist in the face of changing climate conditions, it is informative to understand how past climate conditions have shaped present‐day tolerance thresholds. We examined 4 species of intertidal invertebrates (Nucella lamellosa, Littorina scutulata, Littorina sitkana, and Balanus glandula) inhabiting the coasts of Vancouver Island, Canada, where the east coast experiences historically warmer sea surface temperature (SST), warmer low tide (i.e., emersion) rock surface temperature (RST), and lower sea surface salinity (SSS) than the west coast. To determine if east coast populations have higher tolerance thresholds to acute stress than west coast populations, animals from 3 sites per coast were exposed to stressful temperatures and salinities in common garden experiments. Emersion temperature tolerance differed between populations only in N. lamellosa and B. glandula, tolerance thresholds being 1.4–1.5°C higher on the east coast. Water temperature tolerance differed between populations only in B. glandula and L. scutulata but was highest on the west coast. No differences in salinity tolerance were observed within any species. Thus, there is limited evidence of divergence among east and west coast populations in tolerance of acute stress despite the substantial historical differences in extreme temperature and salinity conditions between coasts. However, based on present‐day summertime SST and RST and known rates of change in these parameters, we predict present‐day tolerance thresholds would be sufficient to allow adults of these populations to tolerate extreme temperatures predicted for the next several hundred years, and that even a slow rate of change in acute tolerance thresholds might suffice to keep up with future temperature extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Centennial‐to‐millennial temperature records of the past provide a context for the interpretation of current and future changes in climate. Quaternary climates have been relatively well studied in north‐east North America and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean over the last decades, and new research methods have been developed to improve reconstructions. We present newly inferred reconstructions of sea surface temperature for the north‐western Atlantic region, together with a compilation of published temperature records. The database thus comprises a total of 86 records from both marine and terrestrial sites, including lakes, peatlands, ice and tree rings, each covering at least part of the Holocene. For each record, we present details on seasons covered, chronologies and information on radiocarbon dates and analytical time steps. The 86 records contain a total of 154 reconstructions of temperature and temperature‐related variables. Main proxies include pollen and dinocysts, while summer was the season for which the highest number of reconstructions were available. Many records covered most of the Holocene, but many dinocyst records did not extend to the surface, due to sediment mixing, and dendroclimate records were limited to the last millennium. The database allows for the exploration of linkages between sea ice and climate and may be used in conjunction with other palaeoclimate and palaeoenvironmental records, such as wildfire records and peatland dynamics. This inventory may also aid the identification of gaps in the geographic distribution of past temperature records thus guiding future research efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During spring 2011, an extreme flood occurred along the Richelieu River located in southern Quebec, Canada. The Richelieu River is the last section of the complex Richelieu basin, which is composed of the large Lake Champlain located in a valley between two large mountains. Previous attempts in reproducing the Richelieu River flow relied on the use of simplified lumped models and showed mixed results. In order to prepare a tool to assess accurately the change of flood recurrences in the future, a state‐of‐the‐art distributed hydrological model was applied over the Richelieu basin. The model setup comprises several novel methods and data sets such as a very high resolution river network, a modern calibration technique considering the net basin supply of Lake Champlain, a new optimization algorithm, and the use of an up‐to‐date meteorological data set to force the model. The results show that the hydrological model is able to satisfactorily reproduce the multiyear mean annual hydrograph and the 2011 flow time series when compared with the observed river flow and an estimation of the Lake Champlain net basin supply. Many factors, such as the quality of the meteorological forcing data, that are affected by the low density of the station network, the steep terrain, and the lake storage effect challenged the simulation of the river flow. Overall, the satisfactory validation of the hydrological model allows to move to the next step, which consists in assessing the impacts of climate change on the recurrence of Richelieu River floods. Plain Language Summary: In order to study the 2011 Richelieu flood and prepare a tool capable of estimating the effects of climate change on the recurrence of floods, a hydrological model is applied over the Richelieu basin. The application of a distributed hydrological model is useful to simulate the flow of all the tributaries of the Richelieu basin. This new model setup stands out from past models due to its distribution in several hydrological units, its high‐resolution river network, the calibration technique, and the high‐resolution weather forcing data set used to drive the model. The model successfully reproduced the 2011 Richelieu River flood and the annual hydrograph. The simulation of the Richelieu flow was challenging due to the contrasted elevation of the Richelieu basin and the presence of the large Lake Champlain that acts as a reservoir and attenuates short‐term fluctuations. Overall, the application was deemed satisfactory, and the tool is ready to assess the impacts of climate change on the recurrence of Richelieu River floods. Key Points: An advanced high‐resolution distributed hydrological model is applied over a U.S.‐Canada transboundary basinThe simulated net basin supply of Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River discharge are in good agreement with observations of the 2011 floodThe flow simulation is challenging due to the topographic and meteorological complexities of the basin and uncertainties in the observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has led to major shifts in the timing of biological events, with many studies demonstrating earlier phenology in response to warming. However, few of these studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the phenology of larvae in marine species. Phenological shifts can result in mismatches between consumers and prey and hence affect growth and survival of individuals, and ultimately population demography. We investigated the temporal changes in phenology and abundance of the larvae of dominant brachyuran crabs in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (eastern Canada) based on plankton collections spanning 1982–2012. The Gulf of St. Lawrence has warmed since the early 1990s, and our analyses revealed that larvae of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and toad crabs (Hyas spp.) exhibited a significant trend towards earlier phenology over the 30‐year study period. This shift in phenology appeared to be a consequence of the effect of climate warming on both the timing of hatching and larval development rate. Larval abundance responded differently by crab taxon to climate warming, likely due to differences in thermal tolerance. The warming trend was unfavourable to snow crab, which is the most cold‐adapted and stenothermic of the taxa examined in this study. The abundance of snow crab larvae was lower when sea ice retreat occurred earlier than day 110 of the year and sea surface temperature was higher than 8.5°C. On the other hand, larval abundance of rock crab (Cancer irroratus), which prefers higher temperatures, was positively related to surface temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will drive significant changes in vegetation cover and also impact efforts to restore ecosystems that have been disturbed by human activities. Bitumen mining in the Alberta oil sands region of western Canada requires reclamation to "equivalent land capability," implying establishment of vegetation similar to undisturbed boreal ecosystems. However, there is consensus that this region will be exposed to relatively severe climate warming, causing increased occurrence of drought and wildfire, which threaten the persistence of both natural and reclaimed ecosystems. We used a landscape model, LANDIS‐II, to simulate plant responses to climate change and disturbances, forecasting changes to boreal forests within the oil sands region. Under the most severe climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5) the model projected substantial decreases in forest biomass, with the future forest being dominated by drought‐ and fire‐tolerant species characteristic of parkland or prairie ecosystems. In contrast, less extreme climate forcing scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 4.5) had relatively minor effects on forest composition and biomass with boreal conifers continuing to dominate the landscape. If the climate continues to change along a trajectory similar to those simulated by climate models for the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario, current reclamation goals to reestablish spruce‐dominated boreal forest will likely be difficult to achieve. Results from scenario modeling studies such as ours, and continued monitoring of change in the boreal forest, will help inform reclamation practices, which could include establishment of species better adapted to warmer and drier conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Geographer is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Pronounced climate warming over the arctic‐subarctic regions has lead to profound hydrological changes including intensified river flow, but how soil frost controls aquifer discharge remains poorly understood. This study quantifies the relationship between freezing temperature and baseflow in winter. Analyses show that the traditional reservoir models are unable to reproduce the observed baseflow variations. By incorporating a freezing temperature function in the reservoir models, the model performances are largely improved. It indicates the dominant role of freezing temperature in controlling the aquifer discharge through reducing the watershed conductivity and liquid (active) water content. The results for the Albany watershed in Canada show that the watershed lump conductivity decreases by half when air temperature accumulates to −172 °C·day from winter start and in extremely cold years, it could decrease by more than 85%. With this relationship, a climate warming of +1, +2, and +4 °C would suggest an increase of 7.7%, 16.7%, and 41.0% in conductivity or 6.8%, 14.7%, and 35.0% in winter discharge, respectively. The study provides an important link between climate warming and aquifer discharge in cold regions. The results could be particularly useful for developing process‐based models, estimating baseflow variations, and assessing climate change impact on cold region hydrology. Plain Language Summary: Pronounced climate warming over the arctic‐subarctic regions has lead to intensified river flow, but how soil frost controls aquifer discharge remains poorly understood. This study reveals the relationship between freezing temperature and baseflow in winter. The results show that freezing temperature reduces baseflow through decreasing hydraulic conductivity by more than 85% in extremely cold years for the Albany watershed in Canada. As such, a climate warming of +1, +2, and +4 °C could result in an increase in winter aquifer discharge of 6.8%, 14.7%, and 35.0%, respectively. The temperature‐baseflow relationship found in this study provides new insight for cold region climate change impact and water resources studies. Key Points: Freezing temperature is the dominant factor controlling cold region winter baseflowSoil frost reduces baseflow by reducing hydraulic conductivity and active water contentClimate warming could significantly increase winter river flow in cold regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]