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Evaluating information quality online is increasingly important for healthy decision‐making. People assess information quality using visual interfaces (e.g., computers, smartphones) with visual cues like aesthetics. Yet, voice interfaces lack critical visual cues for evaluating information because there is often no visual display. Without ways to assess voice‐based information quality, people may overly trust or misinterpret information which can be challenging in high‐risk or sensitive contexts. This paper investigates voice information uncertainty in one high‐risk context—health information seeking. We recruited 30 adults (ages 18–84) in the United States to participate in scenario‐based interviews about health topics. Our findings provide evidence of information uncertainty expectations with voice assistants, voice search preferences, and the audio cues they use to assess information quality. We contribute a nuanced discussion of how to inform more critical information ecosystems with voice technologies and propose ways to design audio cues to help people more quickly assess content quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In managing various threats to biodiversity, it is important to prioritize multiple management actions and the levels of effort to apply. However, a spatial conservation prioritization framework that integrates these key aspects, and can be generalized, is still missing. Moreover, assessing the robustness of prioritization frameworks to uncertainty in species responses to management is critical to avoid misallocation of limited resources. Yet, the impact of information uncertainty on prioritization of management effort remains unknown. We present an approach for prioritizing alternative levels of conservation management effort to multiple actions, based on the ecological responses of species to management. We estimated species responses through a structured email‐based expert elicitation process, where we also captured the uncertainty in individual experts' assessments. We identified priority locations and associated level of management of effort of four actions to abate threats to freshwater‐dependent fauna, using a northern Australia case study, and quantified sensitivity of the proposed solution to uncertainty in the answers of each individual expert. Achievement of conservation targets for freshwater‐dependent fauna in the Daly River catchment would require 9.4 million AU$ per year, for a total of approximately 189 million AU$ investment over 20 years. We suggest that this could be best achieved through a mix of aerial shooting of buffalos and pigs, riparian fencing and chemical spraying of weeds, applied at varying levels of management effort in key areas of the catchment. Uncertainty in experts' estimation of species responses to threats causes 60% of the species to achieve 80% of their conservation targets, which was consistent across target levels. Synthesis and applications. Our prioritization approach facilitates the planning of conservation management at fine spatial scales and is applicable to terrestrial, freshwater and marine realms. Plan implementation may require policy instruments ranging from landowner stewardship agreements, market‐based mechanisms and low‐intensity land use management schemes, to regulation of commercial activities within portions of marine protected areas. However, assessing plan sensitivity to uncertainty in species response to management and finding ways of dealing with it in the prioritization rather than ignoring it, as often done, remains vital for effective achievement of conservation objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fault diagnosis is of great significance in maintaining the safe and stable operation of a system. Fast and precise location of faults is important for restoring power supply systems. In this paper, considering the interference of information uncertainty to fault diagnosis under different weather conditions, a fault diagnosis model based on Bayesian network is proposed. The model inherits the capability of processing uncertain information of a Bayesian network and divides the information into historical information and evidence information. The uncertainty of historical information is reduced by modifying the parameters through improving parameter learning formulas, while that of evidence information can be reduced by logical judgment. A fault simulation model based on Monte Carlo method is used to generate simulation data for parameter learning, and a case study confirms the correctness of the proposed fault diagnosis and fault simulation models. © 2018 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On retailing platforms, several information‐provision technologies are adopted to gain profit, such as production video ads service, live streaming service, and virtual reality/augmented reality tech. In this article, we focus on the investment strategies of information‐provision tech and its impact on the platform‐based supply chain. To this end, we develop a general model under which the platform invests in information‐provision tech for homogenous sellers and consumers search for products on the platform. Our results show that the platform should adopt a higher investment level in information‐provision tech for the products with the unit search cost or products' information uncertainty degree being medium. Also, a more competitive environment can lead to a lower platform's investment level in information‐provision tech when the number of browsing products is sufficiently large. Interestingly, we find that for a large unit search cost or small uncertainty degree of products' information, investing in information‐provision tech can benefit the platform's and sellers' profit. In addition, if the number of browsing products is large, investing in information‐provision tech can increase the consumer surplus and social welfare. Lastly, our results hold for a broad class of distributions of products' information uncertainty value and other practical cases. Our studies can help the platform to understand the roles of information‐provision tech and provide some practical management insights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the joint effects of analyst reputation, uncertainty and guidance news valence on analysts' reliance on management guidance. We find that, compared to less reputable analysts, reputable analysts rely less on guidance when they issue earnings forecasts. This analyst reputation effect is stronger when earnings and information uncertainty are higher or when the guidance contains good news. Further analysis suggests that both reputable and less reputable analysts sacrifice their forecast accuracy when they rely less on guidance; however, reputable analysts are compensated to a greater extent by the increased informativeness of their forecasts. Finally, we find that analysts' future career advancement is enhanced when their reliance is low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document strong evidence that CEO incentive compensation can predict the significance of stock price momentum through discretionary accrual and real activities manipulation. The profit of momentum strategy increases with CEO pay‐for‐performance incentive, but decreases with CEO risk‐taking incentive. It also evaluates the effects of information uncertainty on such relationship. The evidence is more significant for firms with older and longer tenured CEOs and firms with more informed traders. The relationship between the profit of momentum strategy and CEO pay‐for‐performance incentive is stronger among CEOs without the risk‐taking incentive. Our results are robust for different sub‐samples based on before and after Reg FD and Sarbanes–Oxley Act, even after controlling for the potential endogeneity. Further, our findings are consistent with the information diffusion explanation of momentum and the agency theory that incentivised CEOs tend to manipulate information by smoothing good news, concealing mildly bad news and accelerating the disclosure of extremely bad news. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the determinants of goodwill overstatement at the time of mergers in a Korean setting. In the Korean M&A market, there are two types of mergers: mergers between independent companies (non‐affiliated mergers) and mergers between companies under common control (affiliated mergers). This study extends the literature by examining the factors likely to cause goodwill overstatement in both types of mergers. The results reveal that in affiliated mergers, goodwill at the time of a merger tends to be overstated when controlling owners have higher equity ownership in the target than in the acquirer. By contrast, information uncertainty in the target value causes initial goodwill overstatement in non‐affiliated mergers. We also find that monitoring of independent institutional investors with concentrated holdings against overpaying for the target is more pronounced when controlling owners in affiliated mergers have incentives to overpay for the target. In affiliated mergers, acquirers tend to write off goodwill more frequently when controlling owners have higher equity ownership in the target than in the acquirer. In non‐affiliated mergers, information uncertainty in the target value is significantly associated with subsequent goodwill write‐offs. These results suggest that the type of merger has important consequences for initial goodwill recognition and subsequent impairment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does political uncertainty affect whether lobbyists contact government officials? We suggest that the answer depends on the type of uncertainty introduced. Distinguishing between policy objective uncertainty—where organized interests and lobbyists are uncertain about the policy intentions of decision makers—and issue information uncertainty—where policymakers are uncertain about the technical details of issues—we hypothesize that whereas an increase in policy objective uncertainty leads to a decrease in lobbying, a rise in issue information uncertainty leads to more lobbying. We test the hypotheses with longitudinal data from the Canadian Lobbyists Registry measuring change in the number of times lobbyists have contacted government ministries each month from 2008 to 2018. The results suggest that lobbying intensity does respond differently to these types of uncertainty. Whereas events introducing issue information uncertainty have a statistically significant positive relationship with lobbying, events introducing policy objective uncertainty do not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As organizations are increasingly challenged to find new sources of profit improvement, cost reduction becomes a top priority on the business agenda. Expectations for cost reductions are ongoing and influence both new and existing products and services. The costs for new product and service introductions are managed differently than ongoing cost reductions. Purchasing plays a central role, with different goals, in cost control for new products and services versus ongoing cost savings. This research uses a case study methodology to understand the conflict purchasing faces in managing both new product costs and ongoing cost reductions. Due to goal incongruence between new product development and ongoing savings initiatives, purchasing may act in its own best interest, rather than in the best interest of the organization or team. This is both a contracting and an information uncertainty problem, creating an opening for passive opportunism by purchasing. Thus, agency theory and information processing theory (IPT) are combined to examine how information uncertainty can be reduced and contractual goal alignment improved in these situations. The outcome of this research is to expose potential goal misalignment between new product development cost processes and ongoing cost savings, and suggest theoretically grounded methods for reducing the potential conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a timing momentum strategy by incorporating moving‐average signals in the price momentum and show that the proposed strategy substantially outperforms the buy‐and‐hold strategy. The performance of the timing momentum is better than that of Barroso and Santa‐Clara's (2015) constant‐volatility momentum and is identical to that of Daniel and Moskowitz's (2016) dynamic momentum. One advantage of the timing momentum is that its weights on winner and loser portfolios are lower than the other two strategies, thus leading to lower transaction costs. Further, we show that the profitability of the timing momentum is enhanced when information uncertainty is high. More importantly, the timing momentum has time‐invariant profitability across various time‐series predictors and during periods of momentum crashes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investing in renewable energy is vital for reducing carbon emissions, yet it also poses significant risks and uncertainties. This study proposes a novel approach to evaluate investment risks in overseas renewable energy projects. First, we apply the Wuli–Shili–Renli (WSR) methodology to develop an evaluation index system for investment risks at three levels—Wuli, Shili, and Renli. Second, a risk assessment framework combining D‐AHP and TOPSIS method is constructed to solve the problem of uncertainty in evaluation information resulting from variations in expert experience. Then we can obtain the risk value. Finally, we apply our approach to evaluate the ADAMA Wind Power Phase I Project in Ethiopia. Our findings reveal a medium risk value for the project, with the highest risk at the Shili level. The management risk is the most significant risk factor, consistent with reality. Our proposed method can effectively address information uncertainty in assessing investment risks of renewable energy projects and is applicable to other similar projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the predictive power of the trend strategy in the international stock market. Using data from 49 markets, we find that a trend signal exploiting the short‐, intermediate‐, and long‐term price information can predict stock returns cross‐sectionally in the international market. The significance of the trend strategy is associated with market‐level characteristics such as macroeconomic conditions, culture, and the information environment. The trend premium is more pronounced in markets with a more advanced macroeconomic status, a higher level of information uncertainty and individualism, and better accessibility to foreign investors. Nevertheless, the trend strategy only outperforms the momentum strategy in a relatively short horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the role of fundamental accounting information in shaping portfolio performance. Using a conditional performance approach, we address the concern that the positive relation between Piotroski's F Score and ex post returns is due to risk compensation. Our results show that portfolios of firms with strong fundamental underpinnings generate significant positive and time-varying performance. One potential source of these performance gains is an underreaction to public information (such as momentum and F Score) when information uncertainty (proxied by size, illiquidity, and idiosyncratic volatility) is high. In addition, conditional performance benefits seem prevalent in periods of high investor sentiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study first establishes a robust link between credit rating and post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD). I find strong evidence that PEAD is more salient for firms with low credit ratings. This finding is consistent with the notion that investors are prone to underreact to earnings news from low credit rating firms that are characterized by high uncertainty of asset fundamentals. The association between credit rating and PEAD is not driven by traditional information uncertainty proxies such as earnings volatility, cash flow volatility, accruals quality, firm age, idiosyncratic volatility, and analyst forecast dispersion. I further investigate whether transient institutions exploit the differential of PEAD among different rated firms in their arbitrage trades. The results reveal that transient institutions tend to focus their arbitrage on low credit rating firms. However, the existence and concentration of PEAD in low credit rating firms suggest that transient institutions fail to arbitrage away PEAD among low‐rated firms and that the arbitrage strategy is riskier than expected by the transient institutions. This in turn implies that estimation risk associated with pricing the earnings news of low‐rated firms plays a substantive role in forming the strong PEAD of these firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers two competing supply chains that face cost uncertainty, each consisting of one supplier and one retailer. To address the uncertain cost information, we propose a decision rule based on confidence levels to measure the goals of the supply chain participants. We provide the new concept of the belief‐degree cost of a supply chain that embodies the decision maker's ability to comprehensively address information uncertainty and control the risk caused by information uncertainty. We find that regardless of which of the three games it is in – integrated, hybrid, or decentralized – a chain should order more and thereby gain more profit when its cost uncertainty increases or the competing chain's cost uncertainty decreases. The chain with a low or sufficiently low belief‐degree cost gains a competitive advantage on both quantity and profit. A chain's competitiveness can be enhanced by either decreasing its confidence level or increasing its rival's confidence level. Furthermore, we demonstrate that supply chain integration is the dominant strategy for given confidence levels. Nevertheless, a prisoner's dilemma occurs when the differences in the belief‐degree costs of the two supply chains are not significant and the competitive intensity is high. In addition, the magnitudes of the confidence levels can be changed to avoid or cause a prisoner's dilemma. Finally, under different confidence levels, the Stackelberg model for competing hybrid or decentralized supply chains is extended to the bargaining model, and the impact of bargaining power on supply chain competition is analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainty of alarm information in power grids can lead to incorrect diagnosis of faults. The authors propose a method for diagnosing power grid faults that considers the uncertainty of alarm information using intuitionistic fuzzy logic. To consider the influence of the uncertainty of alarm information in fault diagnosis, an intuitionistic fuzzy set is used to represent the certainty and the uncertainty of alarm information. Using topological analysis and the logical relationships among electrical devices, protective actions, and circuit breaker trips, the authors establish a diagnostic model for power systems based on intuitionistic fuzzy Petri nets. The certainty and the uncertainty of electrical device fault events are calculated using the reasoning method for intuitionistic fuzzy Petri nets. The results for some test cases show that this method can effectively diagnose complex faults in power systems when multiple components operate incorrectly in the complicated data environment and the information is not trusted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contrary to theoretical expectations and empirical evidence in developed markets, the Chinese stock market reacts positively (negatively) to interest rate increases (cuts) by the central bank. During the period from January 1996 to December 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index had an average abnormal return of 1.07% (−1.85%) in reaction to interest rate increases (cuts) over the two‐day announcement window. We further demonstrate that short‐term market reactions are transitory and have no permanent effect. Finally, we reveal that short‐term market reactions cannot be explained by market frictions or information uncertainty. Rather, such reactions are likely driven by investor sentiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subjective time dilation is an effect discovered using the oddball paradigm, where expanding visual stimuli, but not shrinking ones, induce a prolongation of subjective temporal perception compared to static stimuli. This disparity is often seen as another demonstration of humans' evolved reaction to approaching threats, since visual expansion resembles approaching potential threats and warrants extra attention. In this study, we show that by manipulating the relative sizes of stimuli, both expanding and shrinking stimuli can induce prolongation of subjective time in an oddball paradigm. We propose an alternative explanation based on information theory, linking subjective temporal perception to entropy, an objective property of stimulus that is information uncertainty. Temporal function as a logistic function thus serves as the framework inside which content functions like information processing are able to operate coherently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior evidence shows voluntary recalls do not lead to better abnormal stock returns when compared with involuntary ones, although they intend to convey positive signals. This puzzling evidence can be attributed to the ignorance of information uncertainty associated with different product recall strategies. Because of the mixed managerial motives inherent in business strategy, voluntary recalls may involve greater information uncertainty than involuntary ones that prevent investors from receiving the intended positive messages. This paper argues that corporate social responsibility (CSR) establishes a firm's presence in stakeholder engagement and plays a crucial role in certifying information conveyed by voluntary product recalls. The findings suggest that firms with better CSR performance receive significantly greater firm value change than those with poor CSR performance upon the announcements of voluntary recalls. Besides, the CSR effect is mainly driven by the firm's engagement in technical CSR activities because of the direct dialogues with stakeholders caring about products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Product development efforts now more than ever are in need of methodologies that can address the challenges of increased system complexities, shortening time to market, increased demands in mass customization, market instabilities, geographical barriers, improved innovation, and adaptability to emerging technologies. To address these challenges most companies will need to make key decisions early in the product development life‐cycle. In this early phase there are high levels of information uncertainty and information ambiguity. Under these circumstances many companies will converge too early to a point design (Point Based Design—PBD) which will lead to increased cost and schedule delays due to reworking the design later in the product development life cycle. To overcome these challenges many researchers have proposed the Set‐Based Design (SBD) methodology. However, there has been limited guidance on how to define, reason, and narrow sets while improving the level of abstraction of the design. To address such concerns, a literature review was conducted. The contributions of this research include: (1) aggregated literature from over 100 sources on quantitative methods (QM) that has not been considered SBD but does support set‐based thinking, (2) consolidated body of knowledge on QM to help industrial practitioners implement SBD, (3) ​defined gaps and opportunities for future research, and (4) defined strengths and limitations of QM and techniques to define, reason and narrow sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innovative firms confront potential lenders with various risks, including possible innovation failure, uncertain R&D investment payoffs, cash flow volatility, and low collateral value of hard‐to‐value intangible assets. As a result, these firms might struggle to obtain financing. More readable financial disclosures could mitigate the informational risk around innovative firms' fundamentals, ease their monitoring by lenders, and thus ultimately reduce these firms' cost of debt. In this regard, we find that while all firms can overcome information uncertainty about their firm fundamentals and reduce their spreads by having more readable financial disclosures, there is an additional benefit in terms of readability further lowering the cost of debt for innovative firms. The additional benefit that innovative firms can achieve from having more readable financial disclosures, however, is limited to situations of more pronounced information asymmetry where there is no previous lending relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An emerging infectious disease event like the coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic demands careful communication of public health messages to diverse audiences. However, misinformation is easily generated and amplified when a rapidly evolving epidemiological situation is coupled with gaps in scientific knowledge about a novel pathogen. Groups involved in health policy research, advocacy, implementation, and enforcement must be aware of three key challenges as they develop and apply communication strategies during emergencies: (i) information overload, (ii) information uncertainty, and (iii) misinformation. These challenges can be countered by accurately communicating core messages to specific audiences, being transparent about the evidence base for recommendations and open about the likelihood that guidelines may change as scientific discoveries are made, and identifying which myths and conspiracy theories circulating on social media are so harmful that they must be directly countered. Data analytics can assist with the process of monitoring and evaluating the impact of organizational communications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2009, the Securities Exchange Board of India allowed qualified institutional investors to anchor initial public offerings (IPOs) by participating in the issue at a price and allocation publicly disclosed preceding the issue. We study anchor investors (AIs) in Indian IPOs during 2009–2017. We find the share allotment and the number of AIs separately have significant impacts on valuation and underpricing; however, the net effect is nonsignificant. Further, AIs significantly influence other institutional investors' participation in the IPO and induce lower aftermarket volatility. Overall, our evidence suggests that AIs boost demand for and mitigate ex ante information uncertainty of IPOs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the dynamics of specialness for 1‐day repo contracts on Italian government bonds over a 10‐year sample period. As predicted by Duffie's (1996) model, our results show that collateral supply is a significant factor for specialness. However, we enrich that finding by also showing a clear impact from repo liquidity, collateral riskiness, information uncertainty, and short‐selling proxies, revealing the importance of speculative bond demand for specialness. During crisis periods, bond fire sales and European Central Bank interventions also have a large impact on repo specialness. We identify recurrent patterns for specialness around bond auctions. Specialness increases steadily from the auction announcement date until a few days before the auction settlement date, which is consistent with overbidding behaviour and a short selling of treasuries (via reverse repos) from primary dealers ahead of auctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses significant new risks and challenges for businesses and their supply chains. Additionally, in many sectors, Scope 3 indirect greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the sourcing and distribution of goods and services are larger than firms' own carbon footprints. Here we study how firms engage their key stakeholders in their supply chains in obtaining, processing, and transferring relevant climate change‐related information designed to overcome information asymmetry and drive sustainable development. Grounded in organisational information‐processing theory (OIPT), we draw on data from the Carbon Disclosure Project's Climate Change Supply Chain initiative for a qualitative content analysis of a large sample of global firms. Consistent with OIPT, we find that although firms primarily engage their supply chain partners in a variety of ways to reduce information uncertainty around indirect emissions data, effectively interpreting and managing broader sustainability information equivocality becomes a growing priority. Our findings further suggest that firms engage suppliers, customers, and other supply chain partners through basic, transactional, and collaborative types of engagement. We contribute to literatures on interorganisational information processing and sustainable supply chain management by providing a more detailed understanding of how firms engage supply chain partners in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric state analysis is a difficult scientific problem but essential for atmospheric sciences. Data assimilation can generate accurate analyses by integrating information on the atmospheric state using probability density functions (PDFs), where the Gaussian approximation is typically used and PDFs are described by error covariance matrices (ECMs). However, ECMs have been estimated empirically, and dependency of the ECMs on meteorological conditions (flow) is only partially represented. These limit atmospheric state analysis accuracy. This is especially problematic for water substance‐sensitive microwave radiances (WS‐MWRs) because of their strong flow dependence. We objectively estimated ECMs of all data including flow‐dependence of the ECMs of WS‐MWRs. Since the ECM of each data is a component of one ECM representing one joint PDF as a whole, it is theoretically better to objectively estimate ECMs of all data, not just a particular data. For WS‐MWRs, we categorized flow into four using water substance amount and estimating an ECM for each category. Numerical experiments using the new ECMs on an operational global numerical weather prediction system show the followings. The new error standard deviations are generally smaller than those of empirical. Standard deviations and interchannel correlations of observation errors of WS‐MWRs increase with water substance amount. The effects of WS‐MWRs on analysis were approximately doubled. The analysis fields differ systematically such as increase of low‐level clouds over cold oceans. The forecast accuracy improved with 95% statistical significance up to 9%. Both the flow dependence of correlation and variance of WS‐MWRs contributed to the improvement of forecast accuracy. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric state analysis is a difficult scientific problem but essential for atmospheric sciences. Data assimilation can generate accurate analysis by integrating information on the atmospheric state using probability density functions typically described by error covariance matrices (ECMs). However, the ECMs include empirical tunings, and their dependency on meteorological conditions (flow) is only partially represented. These limit atmospheric state analysis accuracy. These shortcomings are especially problematic for water substance‐sensitive microwave radiances (WS‐MWRs). We objectively estimate ECMs of all data including flow‐dependence of those of WS‐MWRs. For WS‐MWRs, we categorized flow into four categories by water substance amount and estimate ECMs for each category. Numerical experiments using the estimated objective ECMs (TEST) and conventional empirical ECMs (CNTL) on a global numerical weather prediction system show the followings. The error standard deviations (SDs) of TEST are smaller than those of CNTL for almost all data. For WS‐MWRs, SDs and correlations between different observation wavelengths increase with water substance amount. The effects of WS‐MWRs on analysis were approximately doubled. The analysis fields differ systematically, such as an increase in tropospheric low clouds over cold oceans. The forecast root‐mean‐square errors of TEST are smaller than those of CNTL with 95% statistical significance up to 9%. Key Points: We objectively estimated flow‐dependent error covariance matrices (ECMs) of water substance‐sensitive microwave radiances (WS‐MWRs)The new ECMs doubled effects of WS‐MWRs on analysis, increased low‐level clouds on cold oceans, and improved forecast accuracy up to 9%Both the flow dependence of correlation and variance contributed to the improvement of forecast accuracy [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study investor communication and stock comovement using a novel data set from an active online stock forum in China. We find substantial comovement among the returns of a stock and its "related stocks," which are frequently discussed in the subforum dedicated to the given stock. Comovement is greater when the discussion of related stocks is more intensive. Further, the effect of communication on comovement is stronger for stocks associated with higher information uncertainty. Codiscussed stocks are more actively traded and experience more correlated trading. A trading strategy that exploits communication‐driven comovement generates abnormal returns. Our findings highlight the impact of investor communication on asset comovement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conflicts of interest among managers, shareholders and creditors resulting in agency costs, can be mitigated by restricting managers' adverse behavior, through financial covenants to better align the various stakeholder interests. Thus, debt contract strictness represents an important aspect of agency costs between creditors, shareholders, and management that is not always captured by interest rates. The contract setting provides a unique opportunity to investigate how creditors may rely on auditors to alleviate information uncertainty stemming from reliance on management's financial reporting and thus alleviate the creditor's potential loss of invested capital. After controlling for borrower risks, loan characteristics, and audit factors, we show that auditor industry specialization is significantly associated with a reduction in the strictness of debt contracts, consistent with creditors viewing certain industry expert auditors as effective monitors against financial reporting manipulation aimed at the avoidance of debt covenant triggers that protect creditors against potential loss. Further, we find that the association between loan strictness and auditor specialization is attenuated by stronger corporate governance systems, external monitors, and prior lender relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use automated techniques to measure causal reasoning on earnings‐related financial outcomes of a large sample of MD&A sections of US firms and examine the intensity of causal language in that context against extent of analyst following and against properties of analysts' earnings forecasts. We find a positive and significant association between a firm's causal reasoning intensity and analyst following and analyst earnings forecast accuracy respectively. Correspondingly, analysts' earnings forecast dispersion is negatively and significantly associated with causal reasoning intensity. These results suggest that causal reasoning intensity provides incremental information about the relationship between financial performance outcomes and its causes, thereby reducing financial analysts' information processing and interpreting costs and lowering overall analyst information uncertainty. Additionally, we find that decreases in analyst following are followed by more causal reasoning on performance disclosure. We also find that firms with a considerable increase of causal disclosure especially attract new analysts who already cover many firms. Overall, our evidence of the relationship between causal reasoning intensity and properties of analyst behaviour is consistent with the proposition that causal reasoning is a generic narrative disclosure quality characteristic, able to provide incremental information to analysts and guide analysts' behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scale and complexity associated with the coordinated response to natural disasters inevitably produce human errors. However, little is known about the frequency and distribution of human error at different levels of coordination during disasters. The purpose of this research was to explore this phenomenon for selected catastrophic bushfires in Australia. To accomplish this, we used the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System that has been widely applied to accidents but is untested with respect to the complexity and temporality of disasters. The results identified that decision errors made during these disasters differed depending upon the level of coordination but were associated with information uncertainty, fatigue, coordination complexities, procedural violations, and degraded personal interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine whether firms' information environment influences the market valuation of their hard‐to‐value knowledge assets: R&D capital. We find that a better information environment, as measured by greater analyst coverage, lower earnings forecast dispersion, and greater earnings forecasting accuracy, is associated with higher stock market valuation of firms' R&D capital. We conduct additional analyses to rule out alternative explanations and test for the direction of causality. Our causal evidence suggests that analysts significantly reduce the information uncertainty surrounding firms' R&D capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective While previous studies document racial discrimination in Major League Baseball, few have considered statistical discrimination, and how racial bias may spill over into related markets. Investigating rookie card (RC) values at their initial release, we exploit the role of information uncertainty to separately identify the influence of racial discrimination and statistical discrimination. Methods Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and Tobit models, we examine 6,026 cards released from 1986 to 1993. After documenting race-based differentials in MLB achievement, we explore the determinants of prices in certain and uncertain environments. Results RCs of black players carry a 14-20 percent premium at their initial release. Race does not influence card values once careers are finished. Finally, given comparable career performance, prices for black players decline significantly more over time. Collectively, this suggests statistical discrimination influences consumers in this market. Conclusion Racial discrimination in an upstream market can lead to spillover effects on related downstream markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental governance regularly has to cope with complex problems. However, 'complexity' has mostly been used as a heuristic concept and hardly made operable for empirical research. Drawing on psychological research on complex problem solving, we propose a structured operationalization of complexity in the five dimensions of (1) goals, (2) variables, (3) dynamics, (4) interconnectedness and (5) information uncertainty. Based on 65 semi-standardized expert interviews and 158 assessments of complexity degrees, we analyse and map 37 water-related problems in Germany with regard to their complexity. We find that these problems tend to exhibit medium degrees of complexity, based on 30 types of argument for complexity. Our analysis also reveals varying degrees of complexity and delineates the various natural, technical and social sources of complexity. Our approach and the results may facilitate more systematic discussion of governance strategies for complex problem solving across environmental policy fields and scales. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on exploring the factors influencing why companies engage in greenhushing decisions in the cultural backgrounds of China and Republic of Korea. Structural equation modeling analysis indicates that in these two countries, reputational risk not only directly leads to corporate greenhushing behavior, but also exerts its influence through conservatism as a mediating factor. Reputational risk causes companies to exhibit conservatism, which in turn leads to the adoption of greenhushing behavior. Furthermore, tests for moderation effects revealed that, in the Chinese sample data, a transparent information disclosure mechanism has the ability to mitigate the impact of reputational risk on corporate greenhushing behavior, as well as to alleviate the influence of conservatism on corporate greenhushing behavior. In the South Korean sample data, a transparent information disclosure mechanism can moderate the impact of reputational risk on conservatism and corporate greenhushing behavior. Finally, the fsQCA method is tested to derive the different configurations and pathways that lead to the strong emergence of greenhushing behavior in companies in China and Republic of Korea, as well as to identify the most influential pathways. This study provides substantial theoretical support for further exploration of the causal mechanisms of corporate greenhushing behavior and promotion of cross‐cultural comparisons and learning in the international environmental management field. In addition, provides rich empirical support and theoretical guidance for corporate environmental management decision‐making and policy formulation. The findings highlight the further standardization and strengthening of transparent information disclosure mechanisms will be an important direction for future environmental policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the power source of the engine, the Fuel Pump(FP) plays a vital role in the safe operation of the aircraft. Due to the complexity of the working mechanism of Aviation Fuel Pumps (AFP) and the strong correlation between the components, the assessment model cannot reflect the health state of the FPs better, while the initial parameters in the assessment model will affect the assessment effect of the model. Therefore, this paper proposes a health status assessment model that can fully integrate monitoring data. To improve the accuracy of the model parameters, the Random Forest algorithm is used to give the feature weights to make up for the limitation of relying on expert knowledge, and the model parameters are optimized by the Covariance Matrix Adaptive Evolutionary Strategy algorithm, which achieves an accurate assessment of the state. Finally, the AFP test bed was built and the AFP was tested. Compared with other methods, the accuracy of the proposed method in this question reaches 96%, which is greatly superior to other methods and verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. It also provides an outlook on future research directions for health state assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Motor neuron disease (MND) (also known as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis) is a life‐limiting neurodegenerative condition. In up to 20% of people with MND, a pathogenic variant associated with autosomal dominant inheritance can be identified. Children of people carrying a pathogenic variant have a 50% chance of inheriting this and a higher, although harder to predict, chance of developing the disease compared to the general adult population. This paper explores the experience of living with the genetic risk of MND. Methods: We undertook a UK‐based interview study with 35 individuals, including: 7 people living with genetically‐mediated forms of MND; 24 asymptomatic relatives, the majority of whom had an increased risk of developing the disease; and 4 unrelated partners. Results: We explore how individuals make sense of genetic risk, unpacking the interplay between genetic knowledge, personal perception, experiences of the disease in the family, age and life stage and the implications that living with risk has for different aspects of their lives. We balance an emphasis on the emotional and psychological impact described by participants, with a recognition that the salience of risk fluctuates over time. Furthermore, we highlight the diverse strategies and approaches people employ to live well in the face of uncertainty and the complex ways they engage with the possibility of developing symptoms in the future. Finally, we outline the need for open‐ended, tailored support and information provision. Conclusions: Drawing on wider literature on genetic risk, we foreground how knowledge of MND risk can disrupt individuals' taken‐for‐granted assumptions on life and perceptions of the future, but also its contextuality, whereby its relevance becomes more prominent at critical junctures. This research has been used in the development of a public‐facing resource on the healthtalk.org website. Patient or Public Contribution: People with experience of living with genetic risk were involved throughout the design and conduct of the study and advised on aspects including the topic guide, sampling and recruitment and the developing analysis. Two patient and public involvement contributors joined a formal advisory panel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the informativeness of analyst forecast revisions that are directionally inconsistent with prior stock price movements (sign-inconsistent revisions). Sign-inconsistent revisions represent approximately one-half of the forecast revisions from 1995 through 2010. Our tests indicate that sign-inconsistent revisions are less informative than are sign-consistent revisions. Sign-inconsistent revisions are less likely to be closer to actual earnings realizations and they generate smaller stock price reactions. We also find evidence that sign-inconsistent revisions are associated with analysts' economic incentives to generate trading volume and their behavioural limitations related to information uncertainty. These results suggest that sign-inconsistent revisions do not necessarily benefit investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In determining its environmental disclosure strategy, a firm's management faces a tension between responding to the information needs of financial markets and maintaining its legitimacy within the community. In this paper, relying on information economics and legitimacy theory, we explore how firms resolve this tension. Results show that a firm's environmental disclosure enhances the quality of analysts' information context, which ultimately allows them to make better forecasts. Moreover, financial analysts seem to be able to decipher environmental information, discounting discourses that are inconsistent with a firm's underlying environmental performance. We find also that a firm's environmental disclosure serves another purpose, as it influences how its other stakeholders (beyond financial ones) perceive its legitimacy. Such enhanced legitimacy reduces the information uncertainty faced by financial analysts. Our results suggest also that both economic-based environmental disclosure and sustainable development and environmental disclosure are useful to analysts in making their forecasts and enhance a firm's legitimacy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Software architecture is the framework for all the technical decisions and as such has the tremendous impact on product cost and quality. Choosing a software architecture for any system remains a complex task, as existing software architecture evaluation methods fail to quantitatively analyze them. Software architecture evaluation framework addresses the competing objectives of cost minimization and quality maximization between different architectural options. Due to the uncertainty in the judgment for quality attributes, fuzzy based quantitative evaluation framework for accessing quality attributes is developed to facilitate the selection of the underlying architectures. Fuzzy TOPSIS is one of the sensitive methods of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) that defines the positive ideal solution and negative ideal solution to maximize the benefit criteria and minimize the cost criteria. The various decision makers' quality requirements need to be considered collectively to describe the quality requirements of the envisioned system which forms the basis for the comparison and selection criteria. In this paper, a multi criteria decision making approach for architecture selection under partial or incomplete information (uncertainty) is presented and validated using a suitable case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To fully utilize the voltage regulation capacity and interaction characteristics of the Transmission and Distribution (T&D) system, a novel Modified Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (MPOMDP)‐based Reinforcement Learning (RL) scheme for Autonomous Voltage Control is proposed, which incorporates Demand Response (DR) and cooperation with the Transmission Network. The proposed scheme consists of two vital components: an MPOMDP block and a Modified Asynchronous Advantage Actor‐Critic‐based RL block. The MPOMDP block innovatively exploits the confidence interval of the observed state to make a better perception of the precise system state by introducing two new probability vectors. Then the MPOMDP block is fed into the underlying architecture of the RL block for asynchronously capturing features and optimal decision‐making, where the solving framework additionally brings in a public data buffer to realize boundary information sharing. Case studies are conducted on a modified T&D system considering N‐1 contingencies, with a training dataset from a district in Suzhou, China. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can achieve significant voltage optimization while ensuring fast convergence speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managers consider environmental uncertainty in making decisions. Accordingly, this study aims to test the positive effect of environmental uncertainty on cost stickiness. This study also investigates the effects of environmental uncertainty on cost stickiness under different strategies. Further, firms need more able managers to deal with uncertain environments. This study observes the different effects of environmental uncertainty on cost stickiness when managers have varying levels of managerial ability. We run the panel regression analysis of 23,298 firm‐year observations in Southeast Asian countries in 2013–2019. This study documents that environmental uncertainty increases cost stickiness, and the effects are qualitatively similar for prospector and defender strategies. Further, the effect of environmental uncertainty on cost stickiness is stronger in firms with low managerial ability for both the prospector and defender strategies. Greater environmental uncertainty increases cost stickiness (ratio of SG&A to sales). This increase can be interpreted as a negative signal for future profits and a positive signal that firms retain resources to meet future sales expectations. Managerial ability affects cost stickiness. Hence, less managerial ability strengthens the relationship between environmental uncertainty and cost stickiness. This study operationalizes environmental uncertainty using three dimensions: munificence, dynamism, and complexity, which are arguably more comprehensive than prior studies that only use a single uncertainty dimension. This study also adds strategy and managerial ability to the relationship between environmental uncertainty and cost behavior. It demonstrates that firms deal with uncertainty based on their competitive advantage and managerial capabilities. This study documents the cost behavior of Southeast Asian. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2D‐Cascade‐Transeform‐Logistic‐Sine Map (2D‐CTLSM) with good randomness and large parameter chaos range is obtained by improving the Logistic and Sine map in a cascade manner. By combining the chaotic map with DNA coding, an efficient encryption algorithm based on a chaotic map with chunking dislocation and alternate row diffusion is designed. The shortcomings of zigzag itself are overcome by performing different zigzag transformations in chunks while combining DNA encoding to accomplish the diffusion operation. Due to the excellent properties of DNA encoding, the diffusion operation is performed by the DNA computation method with alternate row diffusion so that each value can complete the diffusion operation twice. The simulation experimental results and security analysis show that the algorithm can effectively resist various typical attacks, such as the information entropy is close to the expected value of 8, the correlation coefficient is close to 0, and the NPCR and UACI values can meet the critical value range, and so on. This is a safe and reliable image encryption algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine how analysts respond to non‐financial information about environmental, social responsibility, and corporate governance (ESG) performance and find good ESG performance lessens analysts' optimistic bias. We verify the mediating role of financial transparency that superior ESG performance decreases the level of information asymmetry between firms and analysts and improves financial transparency, thus weakening optimistic bias. Analysts' optimistic bias rises with increased institutional holdings and diminishes with heightened economic policy uncertainty. Social responsibility makes a larger reducing effect on analyst optimistic bias than corporate governance and environmental protection. Our findings have important implications for encouraging firms to emphasize ESG performance and improving stock market efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper systematically analyzes the relationship between government support and private enterprise innovation. A firm‐level proxy for government support is derived based on Chinese context. Specifically, we explore whether and how government subsidies affect private firms' innovation output. We find that government subsidies can promote private enterprise innovation, and this impact will be further strengthened when firms face high level of financing constraints and when large shareholders pledge their equities. However, this impact will be weakened in regions with high marketization degree and good information environment. Further analysis shows that government support can have a positive impact on corporate innovation by increasing private firms' innovation input and reducing financing costs. Our study sheds new light on the role of government support by investigating the boundary conditions and exploring the impact channel of its effect. Also, this paper fills a gap in the research on the role of government support and the situational research by putting this issue in Chinese context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates an exploratory uncertainty‐knowledge sharing model contextualized in terms of uncertainty induced by the COVID‐19 pandemic and based on the integrative framework of contingency theory and models of interpretation. The study attempts to explain the multidimensionality of and relationships between perceived environmental uncertainty types and knowledge‐sharing subprocesses. The presumptive connections between the variables are examined through an empirical study conducted with 224 academics from a large university in the Philippines. The results confirm the multidimensionality of uncertainty induced by the COVID‐19 pandemic and indicate that certain types of uncertainty drive knowledge‐donating and knowledge‐collecting behaviors within a knowledge‐intensive organization. The study offers theoretical and practical implications for reflective decision‐making in critical times and reciprocal intra‐organizational knowledge flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research empirically investigates the static and dynamic impacts of firms' digital transformation on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance by employing data of listed Chinese companies from 2011 to 2020 via estimations of propensity score matching and difference in differences. First, we find that digital transformation does some good to improve firms' ESG, which is confirmed after conducting several robustness tests. Second, digital transformation benefits the three aspects of ESG (environmental performance, social responsibility, and governance), and its impact is dynamic, promote ESG two years after the digital reform. Third, the impact of digital transformation on ESG is not constant among different firms. Specifically, digital transformation's impact on ESG is stronger among firms located in western or central regions of China and to those in polluting and competitive industries, as well as among non‐stated‐owned enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under rational asset pricing theory, and in efficient, frictionless market, risk should be priced contemporaneously and, thus, the market meltdown during the COVID‐19 pandemic must have been a contingent valuation of newly created risk. In contrast, we find that the reduction in equity value during the pandemic was stronger for stocks with higher pre‐pandemic accrued risk. This lends support to the discrete pricing proposition, which is a form of behavioural bias where investors price accrued risk during significant corporate or macroeconomic events. Furthermore, we compare the pricing of accrued risk during the pandemic with the pricing of accrued risk during non‐pandemic events and during past financial crises. We report evidence that pricing of accrued risk results in a premium in normal times and a discount during financial turmoil. Finally, we report evidence that investors price accrued stocks discriminately, that is, they are more likely to price accrued risk of stocks of larger firms, smaller B/M, and weaker momentum. Several theoretical and practical implications are discussed inside the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to confirm an empirical link between financial openness, foreign trade and income growth in South Africa. Although domestic credits, trade and growth are cointegrated, the findings indicate that no such link can be observed between money supply and exports as exports are a result of foreign demand and hence subject to foreign monetary factors rather than domestic financial development. The results of causality analyses reveal that the export‐led and supply‐leading hypotheses are confirmed for South Africa. Money supply in South Africa is also output driven. Finally, the study shows that changes in domestic credits precede significant changes in trade and growth in South Africa. As a result, this study suggests that the creation of domestic credits is a significant force behind trade and aggregate income in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although new investment can be viewed as a decision to pursue projects from a wide number of growth opportunities with easily discernible (and presumably preferable) risk profiles, downsizing (e.g., through layoffs, plant closings, asset divestitures, etc.) is a dichotomous choice to either abandon or continue an existing project where the relative risk between these options is not clear. Our evidence suggests that vega in the pre‐downsizing period is associated with risky investment that necessitates future downsizing. We further find that contemporaneous vega is associated with a greater likelihood of downsizing. On the other hand, our evidence suggests that delta is a significant impediment to downsizing. We examine the influence of behavioral factors in the decision‐making process and find downsizing decisions are discouraged by managerial overconfidence but encouraged by managers' aversion to ambiguity. Finally, we investigate whether equity incentives and behavioral factors lead to better downsizing decisions. We find that downsizing firms with high ambiguity perform better after downsizing relative to their matched pair with lower ambiguity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]