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The Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model is a third‐generation land surface model (LSM). CABLE is commonly used as a stand‐alone LSM, coupled to the Australian Community Climate and Earth Systems Simulator global climate model and coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for regional applications. Here, we evaluate an updated version of CABLE within a WRF physics ensemble over the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) AustralAsia domain. The ensemble consists of different cumulus, radiation and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. Simulations are carried out within the NASA Unified WRF modeling framework, NU‐WRF. Our analysis did not identify one configuration that consistently performed the best for all diagnostics and regions. Of the cumulus parameterizations the Grell‐Freitas cumulus scheme consistently overpredicted precipitation, while the new Tiedtke scheme was the best in simulating the timing of precipitation events. For the radiation schemes, the RRTMG radiation scheme had a general warm bias. For the PBL schemes, the YSU scheme had a warm bias, and the MYJ PBL scheme a cool bias. Results are strongly dependent on the region of interest, with the northern tropics and southwest Western Australia being more sensitive to the choice of physics options compared to southeastern Australia which showed less overall variation and overall better performance across the ensemble. Comparisons with simulations using the Unified Noah LSM showed that CABLE in NU‐WRF has a more realistic simulation of evapotranspiration when compared to GLEAM estimates. Key Points: We identify WRF physics configurations that perform well with CABLESimulation of latent heat fluxes over Australia are more skillful with WRF‐LIS‐CABLE than WRF‐Noah [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The city of Melbourne in southeast Australia is planning to expand urban areas substantially by the year 2050 and this expansion has the potential to alter the Urban Heat Island (UHI), that is, higher temperatures in urban areas as compared to surrounding rural areas. Moreover, Melbourne has been experiencing more frequent heatwaves for last two decades, and the intensity and duration of heatwaves is expected to increase in the future, which could exacerbate the UHI. This study evaluates the potential impacts of future urban expansion on the urban meteorology in Melbourne city during four of the most severe heatwave events during the period 2000–2009. Urban expansion is implemented as high‐density urban with a high urban fraction of 0.9 to investigate the maximum possible impact. Simulations are carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Single‐Layer Urban Canopy Model with current land‐use and future urban expansion scenarios. Urban expansion increases the near‐surface (2‐m) UHI (UHI2) by 0.75 to 2.80 °C and the skin‐surface UHI (UHIsk) by 1.9 to 5.4 °C over the expanded urban areas during the night, with no changes in existing urban areas. No substantial changes in UHI2 and UHIsk occur during the day over both existing and expanded urban areas. This is largely driven by changes in the storage heat flux, with an increase in storage heat at night and a decrease during the day; that is, excess storage heat accumulated during the day is released at night, which causes a slower decrease of near‐surface temperature and increase in the UHI. Urban expansion did not affect human thermal comfort (HTC) in existing urban areas and there were no marked differences in HTC between existing and expanded urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics and large-scale drivers of heat wave (HW) events in Australia are well documented. However, the influence of soil moisture in modulating HWs is largely unexplored. We focus here on a recent significant HW event in southeast Australia that preceded the Black Saturday bushfires (3-7 February 2009). During this period, the southeast of Australia experienced unprecedented warm conditions, which, in conjunction with high fuel load and mesoscale weather conditions, led to devastating bushfires. We examine how different initial soil moisture conditions with lead times of 5, 10, and 15 days prior to the event would have altered its overall dynamics at the continental scale. We show that at short lead times (5 days), the influence of perturbing soil moisture is mostly linear. Decreasing (increasing) soil moisture increases (decreases) maximum temperatures, associated with an intensification of the upper-level anticyclone. The effect of increasing soil moisture is more nonlinear than decreasing soil moisture with increasing lead time; namely, increasing soil moisture can also lead to an increase in maximum temperature over some parts of the domain, rather than a decrease everywhere. At lead times of up to 15 days, the imposed perturbation in soil moisture, mostly confined to the Tropics, is essentially lost such that the impact on maximum temperatures on the day of the event cannot be related to the sign of the imposed perturbation in soil moisture. Our results highlight the importance of accurate soil moisture estimates in capturing the intensity and spatial extent of HW events in southeast Australia, but only at relatively short lead times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT A high resolution (5 km), single initialization, 30 year (1970-1999) Weather Research and Forecast regional climate model ( RCM) ensemble for southwest Western Australia ( SWWA) is evaluated. The article focuses on the ability of the RCM to simulate winter cold fronts, which are the main source of rainfall for the region, and assesses the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate extremes within the region's cereal crop growing season. To explore uncertainty, a four-member ensemble was run, using lateral boundary conditions from general circulation models ( GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3; ECHAM5, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 ( MIROC 3.2), Community Climate System Model version 3 ( CCSM3) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ( CSIRO) mk3.5. Simulations are evaluated against gridded observations of temperature and precipitation and atmospheric conditions are compared to a simulation using ERA-Interim reanalysis boundary conditions, which is used as a surrogate truth. Results show that generally, the RCM simulations were able to represent the climatology of SWWA well, however differences in the positioning of the subtropical high pressure belt were apparent which influenced the number of fronts traversing the region and hence winter precipitation biases. Systematic temperature biases were present in some ensemble members and the RCM was found to be colder than the driving GCM in all simulations. Biases impacted model skill in representing temperature extremes and this was particularly apparent in the MIROC-forced simulation, which was the worst performing RCM for both temperature and precipitation. The dynamical causes of the biases are explored and findings show that nonetheless, the RCM provides added value, particularly in the spatio-temporal representation of wet season rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: With climate change, heat waves are becoming increasingly frequent, intense and broader in spatial extent. However, while the lethal effects of heat waves on humans are well documented, the impacts on flora are less well understood, perhaps except for crops. We summarize recent findings related to heat wave impacts including: sublethal and lethal effects at leaf and plant scales, secondary ecosystem effects, and more complex impacts such as increased heat wave frequency across all seasons, and interactions with other disturbances. We propose generalizable practical trials to quantify the critical bounding conditions of vulnerability to heat waves. Collectively, plant vulnerabilities to heat waves appear to be underappreciated and understudied, particularly with respect to understanding heat wave driven plant die‐off and ecosystem tipping points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]