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We are in the midst of a crisis of climate change and environmental degradation that will only get worse, unless significant changes are rapidly made. Globally, the healthcare sector causes a large share of our total environmental footprint: 4.4% of greenhouse gases. Sustainable healthcare has emerged as a way for healthcare sectors in high‐income countries to help mitigate climate change by reducing their emissions. Whether global health should be sustainable and what ethical grounds might exist to support such a claim are not questions that have been investigated. The paper argues that global health practice—the delivery of health services to underserved populations in resource‐poor areas of the world—should be sustainable as a matter of climate justice and solidarity. Reducing climate change‐related risks and harms for the vulnerable is integral to the mission of global health and thus it is necessary to consider the climate impact of its practice. The field has a duty to provide sustainable health services that are responsive to climate change‐related changes in the local burden of disease and to build sustainable health system infrastructure. Specific responsibilities for global health funders, managers, and implementers to uphold the duty are proposed. To conclude, the paper considers what limits might be placed on the duty to deliver sustainable global healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a jungle environment where jaguars are considered human, systems thinking has evolved in unexpected ways. Although systems thinking is commonly seen as a product of the Western world, other cultures have developed their own versions with unique characteristics. In this article, we explore Amazonian systems thinking, which has similarities to modern Western systems thinking, as well as differences that may inspire the evolution of systems approaches worldwide. We will discuss the contributions of Amazonian systems thinking particularly to find answers to the planet's ecological and sustainability problems, such as climate change and mass extinction of species, among others. We will present the systems thinking that emerged in some Amazonian communities, how it relates to mainstream Western systems thinking, and focus on some unique aspects of Amazonian systems thinking. This paper is based on the ethnographic work of Gerardo Reichel‐Dolmatoff and other anthropologists who have studied Amazonian communities for decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solutions to global problems such as climate change and biodiversity loss require educational frameworks and accompanying teaching resources that are theory‐based, interdisciplinary, and accessible to broad undergraduate and graduate student audiences. Ecological resilience theory (ERT) is a framework with established interdisciplinary application to complex global problems, but despite an emphasis on the utility of resilience in national higher education frameworks, we found that many current ecology textbooks incorporate multiple definitions and highly variable amounts of discussion on core resilience concepts. To facilitate the use of innovative teaching resources in ERT in universities, this paper describes four free multimedia tools and templates that align with national education frameworks and are available for innovation and development by educators interested in ERT. The products are (1) content modules on core terms and concepts of ERT, (2) a classroom game and discussion, (3) interactive case studies, and (4) a complementary podcast based on resilience concepts and interviews with resilience experts to supplement formal classroom education. We contextualize the opportunities of ERT and thinking for students in university classrooms, as well as the benefits of involving graduate students and encouraging their initiative with this type of project. We conclude with a brief discussion of future opportunities for these types of educational resources. Our intent is that these resources be available for educators and researchers to facilitate interdisciplinarity, collaboration, and innovation to address complex global problems from a core educational framework of ERT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change has profound effects on species' distributions, and it is crucial to understand how well physiological limits correspond to distribution patterns to provide realistic estimations of future range shifts and/or extinctions. Seaweeds are foundation species of global coastal ecosystems, and sea surface temperature is a main predictor to explain their distributions and redistributions under global warming. We here test the hypothesis that, in contrast to other marine ectotherms, physiological knowledge of temperature niches is a weak predictor for seaweed distributions. Location: Global. Time Period: Present (1984–2019). Taxa: Seaweeds. Methods: We analysed the predictive power of physiological temperature limits to predict real‐world distributions in 126 globally distributed seaweed species with linear and generalized linear mixed models. Results: In 72% of the species, there was a difference of ≥|2|°C between the physiological and the realized thermal limits. Both, thermal underfilling (distributional thermal limits narrower than the physiological limits) and overfilling (distributional thermal limits wider than the physiological limits) were present. Thus, in only 28% of the species the physiological limits corresponded to the distributional limits. While heat‐tolerance is a significant predictor for upper distributional temperature limits, we found no relationship between cold‐tolerance and lower distributional temperature limits and the latter two seem to be independent. Main Conclusions: Physiological thermal limits have limited predictive power for seaweed distributions and deviations may be large. Especially cold‐tolerances are a weak predictor, and forecasting of migrations under changing global conditions (e.g. towards the poles) will need special attention. This indicates that responses towards climate change might be highly variable between seaweed species and difficult to predict. Further, nearly 60% of the investigated species had populations which are close to or beyond their reported upper survival limits and are thus probably under threat of eradication by elevation of sea surface temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Earth's remaining tracts of wildlands are being altered by increased human pressure and climate change. Yet, there is no systematic approach for quantifying change in the ecological condition of wildland ecosystems. This paper applies a Wildland Health Index (WHI) to evaluate trends in ecological vital signs in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Components of the WHI include criteria for judging ecosystem health, vital signs consistent with these criteria, monitoring at spatial scales relevant to the ecosystem, evaluating trends in condition, and communicating with decision makers. The GYE, while large, intact, and with substantial management capacity, is undergoing increasing human pressure and climate change. Thus, assessment of trends in ecological health is needed to prioritize management. We synthesized current knowledge to evaluate trends in stressors and vital signs of ecosystem function, composition, and structure for 1970 to present and forecasted to 2100. Results were summarized in a WHI Scorecard to illustrate trends in the higher level vital signs of interest to policy makers. We found that human population has doubled, and housing density has tripled in the GYE since 1970 and both are projected to double again by 2050. Human development is now estimated to cover 31% of the GYE. Temperature has warmed 0.8°C since 1950 and is projected to increase 2.5-5.3°C by 2100. These changes in land use and climate have reduced snowpack and stream flows, increased stream temperatures, favored pest outbreaks and forest die-off, fragmented habitat types, expanded invasive species, and reduced native fish populations. Large mammal populations, in contrast, have been increasing in numbers and expanding in range. These trends differ among land allocation types. The WHI Scorecard rated 6 of 9 vital signs as relatively stable or improving in national parks and designated wilderness. On private lands, in contrast, five vital signs were rated as deteriorating. Confidence in our evaluation is not high because of lack of monitoring across the full GYE. While the National Park Service has a rigorous monitoring program, fewer vital signs are tracked on other federal lands and still fewer on private lands. Thus, trends in ecological condition are not evaluated across the entire GYE nor widely reported in the media. We recommend that the WHI approach be systematically applied across the GYE and other large wildland ecosystems in the United States to better inform management to sustain these wildlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The rapidly changing Arctic is ideal for investigating uncertainties in climate projections. Despite the challenges of collecting data in this region, an unprecedented large‐scale survey of shorebirds has been conducted over the last 30 years. Our study aimed to (1) develop probabilistic estimates for the change in suitable habitat for 10 Arctic shorebird species in Canada by 2075 and (2) assess the contribution of modelling decisions to the uncertainty in these estimates. Location: Arctic Canada. Methods: To evaluate uncertainty, we considered six classes of modelling decisions, yielding 216 unique projections for each species. We tested three decisions that are less commonly explored − the pool of candidate variables, a method for selecting variables, and the maximum distance of tree line dispersal, as well as the modelling algorithm, carbon emissions scenario, and global circulation model. We used a bootstrapping approach, creating a probability distribution for the proportional change in suitable habitat for each species. Results: Our findings indicated a substantial risk for 8/10 species to lose over half of their suitable breeding habitat, but this projection is much less certain than has been described previously. While much uncertainty is unexplained, we were surprised that the largest source of uncertainty among our modelling decisions was from our choice of methods for variable selection, that the other modelling decisions were relatively small sources of uncertainty, overshadowing other modelling decisions. Main Conclusions: While most scenarios predict a northward shift and significant habitat loss for Arctic‐breeding shorebirds, the Arctic Archipelago of Canada will remain an important refuge because in many other Arctic regions, there is no land farther north for these species to shift into. A comprehensive understanding of uncertainty is important for deciding if future projections can or should be used when planning climate‐resilient protected area networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a rapidly changing Arctic, multiple lines of evidence suggest that bowhead whale migration is changing. To explore these changes further, we used passive acoustic data to examine bowhead whale presence in the western Beaufort Sea (12 years) and Chukchi Plateau (11 years) spanning 2008 to 2022. Departure from the western Beaufort Sea shifted 45 days later over the 12‐year period. Summer presence increased at both sites, suggesting feeding areas within the Chukchi Sea are becoming more favorable. Likewise, findings from the Bering Strait suggest that some whales are remaining north of the Bering Strait for the winter instead of in the Bering Sea. These Pacific Arctic‐wide changes to migration have occurred over only one decade. Questions remain about prey availability in the Chukchi Sea, implications of migratory changes, such as a northward shift in the core overwintering area, and impact to communities south of the Bering Strait. Plain Language Summary: Bowhead whales are an important top predator in the Pacific Arctic. With increasing temperatures and decreasing sea ice, changes are occurring in the migration patterns of this "ecosystem sentinel" throughout the Pacific Arctic. We analyzed passive acoustic data from the western Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Plateau from 2008 to 2022. Whales are delaying their fall departure from the western Beaufort Sea and spending more time in the western Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Plateau, which, along with increased habitat use on the Chukchi Shelf, suggests that conditions there are becoming more favorable for feeding. Combined with previous data from the Bering Strait, which showed that some whales are spending winter in the southern Chukchi Sea rather than in the northern Bering Sea, these findings suggests that changes are occurring over a short period of time throughout the Pacific Arctic. A northward shift could put bowhead whales in the direct path of ships, especially along the western side of the Chukchi Sea, and impact whaling communities south of the Bering Strait. Key Points: Acoustic data reinforce known delay in bowhead fall departure from the western Beaufort Sea and overwintering in the southern Chukchi SeaIncreased presence in the western Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Plateau suggests these regions are becoming more favorable for bowhead feedingWhales are adapting to a rapidly changing Arctic, but changes and emerging threats may impact them and communities south of Bering Strait [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the mid‐20th century, the so‐called Great Acceleration (sensu Steffen et al., 2007, https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[614:TAAHNO]2.0.CO;2) has amplified processes of ecosystem degradation, extinction of biological species, displacement of local peoples, losses of languages, and cultural diversity. These losses are still underperceived by the academic community, and by a global society that is disconnected from biocultural diversity. To reconnect society with biocultural diversity, we integrate temporal and spatial dimensions of seasonal cycles, by combining two conceptual frameworks: ecological calendars and the "3Hs" model of the biocultural ethic (sensu Rozzi, 2012, https://doi.org/10.5840/enviroethics20123414). The latter values the vital links between human and other‐than‐human co‐inhabitants, their life habits (e.g., cultural practices of humans or life cycles of other‐than‐human species), and the structure and processes of their shared habitats. This integration enhances an understanding of links between cultural practices and the life cycles of biocultural keystone species. As a synthesis, we use the term biocultural calendars to emphasize their co‐constitutive nature that result from interactions between dynamic biophysical and cultural processes embedded in specific ecosystems and cultures. These calendars link astronomical, biological, and cultural seasonal cycles that sustain life and enhance the integration of Indigenous and scientific knowledge to confront challenges of climate change faced from local to global scales. To illustrate this integration, we examine cultural practices and socio‐environmental changes across four contrasting ethnolinguistic communities in southwestern South America, from southern to northern Chile along a marked climatic gradient to show the broad application of the concept of biocultural calendars. Plain Language Summary: We combine ecological calendars and the biocultural ethic. The first refers to natural or seasonal calendars and focuses on the temporal scale of life cycles and other ecological phenomena observed at a given place. The second emphasizes the vital links among human and non‐human co‐inhabitants, their habits (e.g., cultural practices of humans or life cycles of other‐than‐human species) in shared habitats (the "3Hs" of the biocultural ethic). Close observation of biological and cultural diversity, and their interrelationships (in short, biocultural diversity), synchronizes cultural practices with natural processes at specific places. This synchrony is particularly relevant in the context of climate change because by being locally attuned, communities enhance their capacity to adapt their activities to the variability of temperature, rainfall, and other climatic events. In this article we use the term biocultural calendars to more closely understand the links between different life habits in contrasting habitats and annual seasons. In this way, biocultural calendars provide an understanding of biological and cultural heterogeneity in different seasons and regions of the world that can help us adapt to a rapidly changing world. Key Points: Biocultural calendars are co‐constitutively generated through interactions between dynamic biophysical and cultural processesThe biocultural ethic's 3Hs model values the vital links among human and other‐than‐human co‐inhabitants, their habits, and shared habitatsBiocultural calendars are based on seasonal cycles of keystone species that are part of communities of co‐inhabitants [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses to the environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but it also exacerbates the harmful effects of other human‐mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms of threats to species preservation, as well as in the preservation of an array of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Among the most affected groups of animals are insects—central components of many ecosystems—for which climate change has pervasive effects from individuals to communities. In this contribution to the scientists' warning series, we summarize the effect of the gradual global surface temperature increase on insects, in terms of physiology, behavior, phenology, distribution, and species interactions, as well as the effect of increased frequency and duration of extreme events such as hot and cold spells, fires, droughts, and floods on these parameters. We warn that, if no action is taken to better understand and reduce the action of climate change on insects, we will drastically reduce our ability to build a sustainable future based on healthy, functional ecosystems. We discuss perspectives on relevant ways to conserve insects in the face of climate change, and we offer several key recommendations on management approaches that can be adopted, on policies that should be pursued, and on the involvement of the general public in the protection effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model systems in biology expand the research capacity of individuals and the community. Closely related to Arabidopsis, the genus Boechera has emerged as an important ecological model owing to the ability to integrate across molecular, functional, and eco‐evolutionary approaches. Boechera species are broadly distributed in relatively undisturbed habitats predominantly in western North America and provide one of the few experimental systems for identification of ecologically important genes through genome‐wide association studies and investigations of selection with plants in their native habitats. The ecologically, evolutionarily, and agriculturally important trait of apomixis (asexual reproduction via seeds) is common in the genus, and field experiments suggest that abiotic and biotic environments shape the evolution of sex. To date, population genetic studies have focused on the widespread species B. stricta, detailing population divergence and demographic history. Molecular and ecological studies show that balancing selection maintains genetic variation in ~10% of the genome, and ecological trade‐offs contribute to complex trait variation for herbivore resistance, flowering phenology, and drought tolerance. Microbiome analyses have shown that host genotypes influence leaf and root microbiome composition, and the soil microbiome influences flowering phenology and natural selection. Furthermore, Boechera offers numerous opportunities for investigating biological responses to global change. In B. stricta, climate change has induced a shift of >2 weeks in the timing of first flowering since the 1970s, altered patterns of natural selection, generated maladaptation in previously locally‐adapted populations, and disrupted life history trade‐offs. Here we review resources and results for this eco‐evolutionary model system and discuss future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although water color is a fundamental property of freshwater ecosystems, the global distribution of lake color remains unknown. Here, we used 5.14 million color records derived from satellite images during 2013–2020 to determine the modal water color of 85,360 representative lakes worldwide. We find that globally, lake modal colors span the visible spectrum with a bimodal distribution of blue versus non‐blue (green‐brown), with 31% of lakes being blue and 69% being non‐blue. Both climate and lake morphology influence lake modal color. Blue lakes are associated with cooler summer air temperature, winter ice cover, and higher precipitation. Under a 3°C increase in summer air temperature, 14% of blue lakes could shift to a non‐blue regime, representing a substantial change to their underlying ecology. As lake ecosystems continue to face a range of stressors, this study provides a critical baseline for understanding lake responses to global environmental change. Plain Language Summary: Water color is a reasonable approximation of water quality. Scientists have studied lake water color for over a century, but we still do not know the color of the lakes across the whole Earth. We used satellite images to determine the water color of 85,360 lakes found around the world. We found that most lakes look green or brown. Blue lakes are not very common. Blue lakes are found in places where the summer temperatures are cooler. Blue lakes are also likely to be covered by ice in winter and are generally deeper than lakes that have green or browner water colors. So, if the summer temperatures get warmer or winter temperatures get so warm that there is no more lake ice, some lakes that are currently blue might shift to being green or brown. Projecting into the future, we predict that 1 in 10 blue lakes might change color because of warming air temperatures. These changes in water color probably indicate a change in the water quality and the conditions for fish in those lakes. We can use satellite images to track changes in lake water color into the future to help us understand how water quality is changing. Key Points: ∼5.14 million satellite observations over 2013–2020 capture the most common water color for 85,360 global lakes and reservoirsLake color shows strong bimodal distribution, with blue lakes clustered spatially and non‐blue lakes more wide‐spread at global scaleClimate and lake properties influence global patterns in lake color, suggesting blue lakes may become less abundant with climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many organisms live in environments in which temperatures differ substantially from those measured by standard weather stations. The last decade has witnessed a paradigm shift in efforts to quantify these differences and to understand their ecological, functional and evolutionary implications. This renewed interest in microclimate ecology has been accompanied by the development of various compact temperature sensors and radiation shields. However, it is clear that there are many pitfalls when measuring temperature using these devices.Here we address the problem of measuring temperatures in these microenvironments accurately. We first discuss the theory of measuring surface, ground and air temperatures with reference to energy fluxes and how these are modified by material, reflective properties and size of the device. We highlight the particular difficulties associated with measuring air temperature. We then report on the results of a series of experiments in which air temperatures recorded by various commonly used microclimate temperature loggers are compared to those obtained using research‐grade instruments and synoptic weather stations.While accurate measurements of surface and ground temperatures and air temperatures at night and in shaded environments can be relatively easily obtained, we show substantial errors are to be expected when measuring air temperatures in environments exposed to sunlight. Most standard sensors yield large errors, which can reach 25°C due to radiative fluxes operating on the thermometer. This problem cannot be wholly overcome by shielding the thermometer from sunlight, as the shield itself will influence both the temperatures being measured and the accuracy of measurement.We demonstrate that reasonably accurate estimates of air temperature can be obtained with low‐cost and unshielded ultrafine‐wire thermocouples that possess low thermal emissivity and a highly reflective surface. As the processes that create microclimatic temperature variation are the same as those that cause errors, other logger types should be used with care, and generally avoided in environments exposed to sunlight and close to the ground where wind speeds are lower. We urge researchers interested in microclimates and their effects to pay greater heed to the physics of heat exchange when attempting to measure microclimate temperatures and to understand the trade‐offs that exist in doing so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The biological world is rapidly changing following decades of anthropogenic disturbances. Under these conditions, species with stable or increasing abundances have been described as winners with the potential for future success, but this assertion is unreliable without knowledge of the selective basis of winning. The incentive to find winners is acute for reef corals, for which large declines in abundance have motivated restoration efforts targeting winning corals. On Caribbean reefs, Porites astreoides has emerged as a potential winner, but the demographic basis of this categorization is poorly known. Here we test for demographic benchmarks of winning in this species by quantifying abundances and sizes of colonies over 28 yr on the south coast of St. John, US Virgin Islands. From 1992 to 2001, the density of colonies of P. astreoides showed little variation while colonies increased in size by 58%, but from 2002 to 2019, population density increased 2.7‐fold, and colony size declined by 41%; accompanying these trends, the mean absolute cover of Porites spp. declined by 46% from 2010 to 2019. Low recruitment and rising abundances of colonies ≤4 cm diameter suggest that partial mortality and fission depressed colony sizes. The reversal over three decades of a positive demographic trend for a ubiquitous coral underscores the challenges of identifying winners from short‐term population performance. Without a mechanistic understanding of fitness, the search for winners based on demographic trends may be futile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fotan flora represents a tropical rainforest biome and is known by its abundance of fossil plant remains, which mainly include leaves and fruits. In this article, we describe three Smilax (Smilacaceae) fossil taxa, S. fujianensis sp. nov., S. zhangpuensis sp. nov., and Smilax sp., from the Middle Miocene of Fujian Province, in southeastern China. Three morphotypes were examined for their gross morphological characteristics and cuticular structures, with especial reference to the venation patterns and stomata complexes. These new Miocene species increase the known diversity of the genus Smilax in low‐latitude regions and contribute to a better understanding of its interspecific variability. Smilax is sensitive to climatic change, and their spatial and temporal distribution fluctuates in response to the periods of warming or cooling in the Cenozoic. Moreover, Smilax primarily grows in warm and moist forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the current global ecological and climate crisis, there are increasing calls in the environmental sustainability literature to recognize the validity and value of Indigenous knowledge systems. At the same time, the limitations of utilitarian frameworks of environmental decision‐making are becoming clearer to many researchers and practitioners, who see a need to engage with the underlying ethical questions of sustainability, such as 'What is to be sustained, and for the benefit of which forms of life?'At the interface between these two urgent imperatives, lies a question that has remained marginal in the sustainability literature: How can the environmental ethics of Indigenous societies help frame sustainability science and practice?Based on a case study from Nyikina Country in northern Australia, we show here how the ethical principles embedded in an Indigenous hydro‐ecological knowledge system can help reframe, and address, sustainability crises as crises of relationships.Learning from the linkages between custodial and hydro‐ecological relationships in Nyikina Country, we discuss three contributions of relational thinking to sustainability research and practice. First, at a governance level, the need to embed ontological plurality into state environmental policy. Second, at a management level, the priority of continued communication between the Country and its custodians. Third, at the level of knowledge production, the imperative for sustainability researchers and practitioners to bring to their research process the relational qualities of pluralism, reciprocity and care that are at the core of Nyikina and other Indigenous ecological ethics. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fires change ecosystem composition and influence species extinction risk, yet information on the impact of fire on biodiversity is scant. The bushfires in southeastern Australia during the summer of 2019/20 were unprecedented in their extent and intensity, and postfire management decisions have been hindered by a lack of knowledge of the impact of fires on biodiversity. We examine the short‐term persistence of frog species across southeastern Australia after these fires using records of calling frogs from the national citizen science project FrogID. We demonstrate widespread short‐term persistence of frog species. Sixty‐six frog species were detected in the firegrounds before the fire, and within 125 days postfire, 45 of these were detected. All 33 frog species with more than five records that were detected in the months of December–March prefire were detected postfire. While the short‐term postfire persistence of so many frog species is a positive result, the population‐level and longer‐term consequences of the fires remain unknown, as does the ability of frogs to persist with the changing fire regimes predicted as a consequence of global climate change. We illustrate the value of citizen science in collecting large‐scale and rapid observations in response to increasing anthropogenically‐driven ecological events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) populations are widespread across diverse habitats but are declining in Western Europe. Drastic declines have been described in the UK, with the most severe declines occurring in rural areas. Hedgehogs are widely distributed in Denmark, but their status remains unknown.Fieldwork on hedgehogs has tended to focus on rural areas, leaving their ecology in suburban habitats largely unexplored, with clear implications for conservation initiatives. Here, we study the ecology of 35 juvenile hedgehogs using radio tracking during their first year of life in the suburbs of western Copenhagen.We use radio‐tracking data to estimate (a) home range sizes in autumn and spring/summer, (b) survival during their first year of life, (c) the body mass changes before, during, and after hibernation, and (d) the hibernation behavior of the juvenile hedgehogs.We show that males and females have small home ranges compared with previous studies. The 95% MCP home range sizes in autumn were 1.33 ha (95% CI = 0.88–2.00) for males and 1.40 ha (95% CI = 0.84–2.32) for females; for spring/summer they were 6.54 ha (95% CI = 3.76–11.38) for males and 1.51 ha (95% CI = 0.63–3.63) for females. The juvenile survival probabilities during the study period from September 2014 to July 2015 were.56 for females and.79 for males. All healthy individuals gained body mass during the autumn and survived hibernation with little body mass loss thus demonstrating that the juveniles in the study were capable of gaining sufficient weight in the wild to survive their first hibernation.The climate is changing, but there is a lack of knowledge on how this affects mammal ecology. The exceptionally mild autumn of 2014 caused the juvenile hedgehogs to delay hibernation for up to a month compared with previous studies in Denmark. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cover page of the journal "Austral Ecology," is presented.

Tropical coral reefs currently face an unprecedented restructuring since their extant form and function emerged ~24 million years ago in the early Neogene. They have entered the Anthropocene—an epoch where humans have become the dominant force of planetary change. Human impacts on and interactions with coral reefs are escalating across multiple trophic levels and scales, but we have a rudimentary understanding of what this means for their functional ecology.The overall goal of this special feature is to unpack what the Anthropocene means for the functional ecology of coral reefs, laying the foundations for new approaches and research directions in coral reef science. The collection describes the functional changes and novel dynamics that characterise Anthropocene reefs, from variations in their taxonomy and geology through to the resulting shifts in ecosystem services they provide to humanity.Common changes to coral reefs are occurring that are challenging their historical functional role. These include reductions in benthic calcifiers and declining carbonate production, and benthic assemblage shifts leading to a loss of structural complexity and flattening of reef seascapes. As reefs as we know them are lost from some locations, range extensions and the "tropicalisation" of temperate locations present novel ecosystem configurations that are challenging ecological paradigms and our historical approach to ecosystem management.Hindering our progress, however, is a "functionality crisis." Coral reef functional ecology to date has lacked a clear and universal definition of the term "function," and many assumed links between taxa and reef processes lack empirical evidence. Moving forward, we must establish causal links between functional traits, the species that possess them, and specific ecosystem processes if we are to successfully manage Anthropocene reefs. The functional space coral reefs occupy has arguably widened, presenting ethical challenges surrounding the increasingly interventionist management practices required to achieve particular functional endpoints.For us to steer coral reefs towards a desirable functional future will require a more mechanistic understanding between ecosystem attributes and the provision of services, acknowledging that such services are coproduced by the ecosystem and society. Ultimately, this era in coral reef ecology requires a new approach to coral reef science, one that addresses the complex socio‐ecological nature of coral reefs. These works outline a path ahead for defining and studying the functional ecology of coral reefs, drive debate as to what we want their functional future to look like and call for ecosystem function to be at the heart of managing coral reef futures during this period of rapid transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Since the launch of Ecology Letters in 1998, the field of Pollination Ecology has changed considerably in its focus. In this review, we discuss the major discoveries across the past two decades. We quantitatively synthesise the frequency by which different concepts and topics appeared in the peer‐reviewed literature, as well as the connections between these topics. We then look forward to identify pressing research frontiers and opportunities for additional integration in the future. We find that there has been a shift towards viewing plant–pollinator interactions as networks and towards understanding how global drivers influence the plants, pollinators and the ecosystem service of pollination. Future frontiers include moving towards a macroecological view of plant–pollinator interactions, understanding how ecological intensification and urbanisation will influence pollination, considering other interactions, such as plant–microbe–pollinator networks, and understanding the causes and consequences of extinctions. Pollination Ecology is poised to advance our basic understanding of the ecological and evolutionary factors that shape plant–animal interactions and to create applied knowledge that informs conservation decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a wicked problem with causes and consequences overlapping with other wicked problems and no single solution (Hulme 2015). For example, the frequent droughts associated with climate change exacerbate another major problem facing humanity as we enter the Anthropocene: how to produce adequate food to feed a growing population without increasing pollution or "more food with low pollution (MoFoLoPo)" (Davidson et al. 2015). Soils represent an intersection of these two wicked problems, because they are integral to food production through agriculture and also are an important component of global climate models. Recent focus in the field of soil carbon cycling has facilitated a transformation in our understanding of the processes that control this important resource. This understanding is critical to responding to both wicked problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km2), are influencing and will influence state-wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period (1950-2009) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store ~50 Pg C (with ~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (−6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010-2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO2 fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO2, we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO2 increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO2 sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO2 to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Global biomes are often classified by mean annual temperature and precipitation, but there is significant overlap between biomes, making it difficult to interpret the role of climate in the distribution of biomes globally. Climate predictability (including long-term reliability of both seasonality and inter-annual variability) varies considerably between biomes and regulates biodiversity distribution, adaptation and evolution, but its global pattern has rarely been investigated. The aim of this study was to characterize climatic space quantitatively for major biomes of the world using temperature and precipitation predictability, and to interpret its biological implications under future climate change. Location Global. Time Period 1901-2012. Methods We calculated global gridded temperature and precipitation predictability based on an information theory approach, and compared climatic spaces defined by these measures within and across biomes. Results We show that temperature predictability has a clear latitudinal gradient, whereas precipitation predictability is geographically variable. We further show that temperature and precipitation predictability form distinct climatic spaces for major biomes across the globe, and importantly, temperature and precipitation predictability can robustly distinguish biomes that are overlapping in mean annual climate statistics. Main conclusions Climatic space created by temperature and precipitation predictability supplements the traditional biome-specific climatic spaces created by annual mean temperature and total precipitation. Quantifying measures of climate predictability helps us to understand adaptation strategies adopted by local organisms within and across biomes. Our results show that quantifying climate predictability is a simple and effective way to delineate more robustly biome climate space and its influences on macroecology and evolutionary biology, which in turn could underpin conservation efforts under future climate change, especially when prevailing climates are comparable in terms of magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kelp forests dominated by species of Laminariales are globally recognized as key habitats on subtidal temperate rocky reefs. Forests characterized by fucalean seaweed, in contrast, receive relatively less attention despite being abundant, ubiquitous, and ecologically important. Here, we review information on subtidal fucalean taxa of Australia's Great Southern Reef, with a focus on the three most abundant and widely distributed genera ( Phyllospora, Scytothalia, and Sargassum) to reveal the functionally unique role of fucoids in temperate reef ecology. Fucalean species span the entire temperate coastline of Australia (~71,000 km2) and play an important role in supporting subtidal temperate biodiversity and economic values on rocky reefs as well as in adjacent habitats. Climatic and anthropogenic stressors have precipitated significant range retractions and declines in many fucoids, with critical implications for associated assemblages. Such losses are persistent and unlikely to be reversed naturally due to the life history of these species and colonization of competitors and grazers following loss. Active restoration is proving successful in bringing back some fucoid species ( Phyllospora comosa) lost from urban shores and will complement other passive and active forms of conservation. Fucalean forests play a unique role on subtidal temperate reefs globally, especially in Australia, but are comparatively understudied. Addressing this knowledge gap will be critical for understanding, predicting, and mitigating extant and future loss of these underwater forests and the valuable ecosystem services they support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adding nutrients to nutrient-limited ecosystems typically lowers plant diversity and decreases species asynchrony. Both, in turn, decrease the stability of productivity in the response to negative climate fluctuations such as droughts. However, most classic studies examining stability have been done in relatively wet grasslands dominated by perennial grasses. We examined how nutrient additions influence the stability of productivity to rainfall variability in an arid grassland with a mix of perennial and annual species. Of the nutrients, only nitrogen increased productivity, and only in wet years. In addition, only nitrogen decreased the stability of productivity. Thus, nutrient addition makes ecosystem productivity less stable in both wet and arid grasslands. However, the mechanism is very different. In contrast to wet grasslands, adding nitrogen to an arid grassland did not decrease diversity. Rather, stability decreased with nitrogen addition due to an increase in annual species that increased productivity. In other words, in our arid grassland, nitrogen addition decreased ecosystem stability because of increased ecosystem responsiveness to positive climate fluctuations. These climate fluctuations were facilitated by annual species that take advantage of wet years and can escape dry years as seeds. Our data support the conclusion that nutrient additions decrease the stability of productivity in both wet and arid grasslands. Nutrient enrichment increases the sensitivity of productivity to low rainfall years in wet grasslands, whereas nutrient enrichment in arid grasslands increases the sensitivity of productivity to high rainfall years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fruit type has a major impact on seed dispersal, seed predation and energy allocation, but our understanding of large-scale patterns in fruit type variation is weak. We used a dataset of 4008 Australian species to provide the first continental-scale tests of a series of hypotheses about the factors that might affect fruit type. We found a significant latitudinal gradient in the proportion of fleshy-fruited species, with the percentage of fleshy-fruited species rising from 19% at 43.75°S to 49% at 9.25°S. Species bearing fleshy fruits were more frequent on the coastal fringes of Australia, while species bearing non-fleshy fruits became more frequent toward the arid centre. Wet, warm and stable climates favoured fleshy-fruited species, with the two best predictors of the proportion of fleshy-fruited species being maximum precipitation over five days ( R2 = 0.40), and precipitation in the wettest month ( R2 = 0.25). These results remained consistent after accounting for phylogenetic correlation among species. A combined model including variables of precipitation, temperature, and climatic variation explained 67% of the variation in the proportion of fleshy-fruited species. Our results are consistent with the idea that plant reproductive strategies are more often tied to conditions during the parts of the year in which they grow than to conditions during the harsh parts of the year. Overall, our findings demonstrate strong relationships between plant reproductive traits and environmental gradients, and improve our understanding of the factors that shape large-scale patterns in plant ecological strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can influence soil microorganisms directly by altering their growth and activity but also indirectly via effects on the vegetation, which modifies the availability of resources. Direct impacts of climate change on soil microorganisms can occur rapidly, whereas indirect effects mediated by shifts in plant community composition are not immediately apparent and likely to increase over time. We used molecular fingerprinting of bacterial and fungal communities in the soil to investigate the effects of 17 years of temperature and rainfall manipulations in a species-rich grassland near Buxton, UK. We compared shifts in microbial community structure to changes in plant species composition and key plant traits across 78 microsites within plots subjected to winter heating, rainfall supplementation, or summer drought. We observed marked shifts in soil fungal and bacterial community structure in response to chronic summer drought. Importantly, although dominant microbial taxa were largely unaffected by drought, there were substantial changes in the abundances of subordinate fungal and bacterial taxa. In contrast to short-term studies that report high resistance of soil fungi to drought, we observed substantial losses of fungal taxa in the summer drought treatments. There was moderate concordance between soil microbial communities and plant species composition within microsites. Vector fitting of community-weighted mean plant traits to ordinations of soil bacterial and fungal communities showed that shifts in soil microbial community structure were related to plant traits representing the quality of resources available to soil microorganisms: the construction cost of leaf material, foliar carbon-to-nitrogen ratios, and leaf dry matter content. Thus, our study provides evidence that climate change could affect soil microbial communities indirectly via changes in plant inputs and highlights the importance of considering long-term climate change effects, especially in nutrient-poor systems with slow-growing vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the underlying mechanisms that control long-term recovery of tundra carbon (C) and nutrients after fire, we employed the Multiple Element Limitation ( MEL) model to simulate 200-yr post-fire changes in the biogeochemistry of three sites along a burn severity gradient in response to increases in air temperature, CO2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition, and phosphorus (P) weathering rates. The simulations were conducted for severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned arctic tundra. Our simulations indicated that recovery of C balance after fire was mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components (controlled by air temperature), rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in (1) a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation and (2) higher C : nutrient ratios in vegetation and soil organic matter. These changes led to gains in vegetation biomass C but net losses in soil organic C stocks. Under a warming climate, nutrients lost in wildfire were difficult to recover because the warming-induced acceleration in nutrient cycles caused further net nutrient loss from the system through leaching. In both burned and unburned tundra, the warming-caused acceleration in nutrient cycles and increases in ecosystem C stocks were eventually constrained by increases in soil C : nutrient ratios, which increased microbial retention of plant-available nutrients in the soil. Accelerated nutrient turnover, loss of C, and increasing soil temperatures will likely result in vegetation changes, which further regulate the long-term biogeochemical succession. Our analysis should help in the assessment of tundra C budgets and of the recovery of biogeochemical function following fire, which is in turn necessary for the maintenance of wildlife habitat and tundra vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As organisms living in temperate environments often have only a short time window for growth and reproduction, their life-history strategies are expected to be influenced by these time constraints. Parents may alter the pace of offspring life-history as a response to changes in breeding phenology. However, the responses to changes in time constraints must be balanced with those against other stressors, such as predation, one of the strongest and more ubiquitous selective factors in nature. Here, after experimentally modifying the timing of breeding and hatching in the moor frog ( Rana arvalis), we studied how compensatory responses to delayed breeding and hatching affect antipredator strategies in amphibian larvae. We examined the activity patterns, morphology and life-history responses in tadpoles exposed to different combinations of breeding and hatching delays in the presence and absence of predators. We found clear evidence of adaptive transgenerational effects since tadpoles from delayed breeding treatments increased growth and development independently of predation risk. The presence of predators reduced tadpole activity, tadpoles from delayed breeding treatments maintaining lower activity than non-delayed ones also in the absence of predators. Tadpoles reared with predators developed deeper tails and bodies, however, tadpoles from breeding delay treatments had reduced morphological defenses as compared to non-delayed individuals. No significant effects of hatching delay were detected in this study. Our study reveals that amphibian larvae exposed to breeding delay develop compensatory life-history responses even under predation risk, but these responses trade-off with the development of morphological antipredator defenses. These results suggest that under strong time constraints organisms are selected to develop fast growth and development responses, and rely on lower activity rates as their main antipredator defense. Examining how responses to changes in phenology affect species interactions is highly relevant for better understanding ecological responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant distributions are expected to shift in response to climate change, and range expansion dynamics will be shaped by the performance of individuals at the colonizing front. These plants will encounter new biotic communities beyond their range edges, and the net outcome of these encounters could profoundly affect colonization success. However, little is known about how biotic interactions vary across range edges and this has hindered efforts to predict changes in species distributions in response to climate change. In contrast, a rich literature documents how biotic interactions within species ranges vary according to distance to and density of conspecific individuals. Here, we test whether this framework can be extended to explain how biotic interactions differ beyond range edges, where conspecific adults are basically absent. To do so, we planted seven species of trees along a 450-km latitudinal gradient that crossed the current distributional range of five of these species and monitored foliar disease and invertebrate herbivory over 5 yr. Foliar disease and herbivory were analyzed as a function of distance to and density of conspecific and congeneric trees at several spatial scales. We found that within species ranges foliar disease was lower for seedlings that were farther from conspecific adults for Acer rubrum, Carya glabra, Quercus alba, and Robinia pseudoacacia. Beyond range edges, there was even less foliar disease for C. glabra, Q. alba, and R. pseudoacacia ( A. rubrum was not planted outside its range). Liriodendron tulipifera did not experience reduced disease within or beyond its range. In contrast, Quercus velutina displayed significant but idiosyncratic patterns in disease at varying distances from conspecifics. Patterns of distance dependent herbivory across spatial scales was generally weak and in some cases negative (i.e., seedlings farther from conspecific adults had more herbivory). Overall, we conclude that differences in biotic interactions across range edges can be thought of as a spatial extension to the concept of distance dependent biotic interactions. This framework also provides the basis for general predictions of how distance dependent biotic interactions will change across range edges in other systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although precipitation interannual variability is projected to increase due to climate change, effects of changes in precipitation variance have received considerable less attention than effects of changes in the mean state of climate. Interannual precipitation variability effects on functional diversity and its consequences for ecosystem functioning are assessed here using a 6-year rainfall manipulation experiment. Five precipitation treatments were switched annually resulting in increased levels of precipitation variability while maintaining average precipitation constant. Functional diversity showed a positive response to increased variability due to increased evenness. Dominant grasses decreased and rare plant functional types increased in abundance because grasses showed a hump-shaped response to precipitation with a maximum around modal precipitation, whereas rare species peaked at high precipitation values. Increased functional diversity ameliorated negative effects of precipitation variability on primary production. Rare species buffered the effect of precipitation variability on the variability in total productivity because their variance decreases with increasing precipitation variance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of apocalyptic and post apocalyptic narratives to interpret the risk of environmental degradation and climate change has been criticized for (1) too often making erroneous predictions on the basis of too little evidence, (2) being ineffective to motivate change, (3) leading to a discounting of present needs in the face of an exaggerated threat of impending catastrophe, and (4) relying on a pre-modern, Judeo-Christian mode of constructing reality. Nevertheless, 'Apocalypse,' whether understood in its technical sense as 'revelation' or in its popular sense as 'end of the world as we know it,' remains a powerful way of creatively reimagining the world and of introducing questions of value and significance into discussions of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is causing shifts in phenology across multiple species. We use a geographically and temporally extensive data set of butterfly abundance across the state of Ohio to ask whether phenological change can be predicted from climatological data. Our focus is on growing degree days (GDD), a commonly used measure of thermal accumulation, as the mechanistic link between climate change and species phenology. We used simple calculations of median absolute error associated with GDD and an alternative predictor of phenology, ordinal date, for both first emergence and peak abundance of 13 butterfly species. We show that GDD acts as a better predictor than date for first emergence in nearly all species, and for peak abundance in more than half of all species, especially univoltine species. Species with less ecological flexibility, in particular those with greater dietary specialization, had greater predictability with GDD. The new method we develop for predicting phenology using GDD offers a simple yet effective way to predict species' responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change is affecting plant and animal populations and many of the changes are likely subtle and difficult to detect. Based on greenhouse experiments, changes in temperature and rainfall, along with elevated CO2, are expected to impact the nutritional quality of leaves. Here, we show a decline in the quality of tree leaves 15 and 30 years after two previous studies in an undisturbed area of tropical forest in Kibale National Park, Uganda. After 30 years in a sample of multiple individuals of ten tree species, the mature leaves of all but one species increased in fiber concentrations, with a mean increase of 10%; tagged individuals of one species increased 13% in fiber. After 15 years, in eight tree species the fiber of young leaves increased 15%, and protein decreased 6%. Like many folivores, Kibale colobus monkeys select leaves with a high protein-to-fiber ratio, so for these folivores declining leaf quality could have a major impact. Comparisons among African and Asian forests show a strong correlation between colobine biomass and the protein-to-fiber ratio of the mature leaves from common tree species. Although this model, predicts a 31% decline in monkey abundance for Kibale, we have not yet seen these declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, such as severe droughts and intense rainfall periods. We explored how the avifauna of a highly modified region responded to a 13-year drought (the 'Big Dry'), followed by a two-year period of substantially higher than average rainfall (the 'Big Wet'). Location Temperate woodlands in north central Victoria, Australia. Methods We used two spatially extensive, long-term survey programmes, each of which was repeated three times: early and late in the Big Dry, and in the Big Wet. We compared species-specific changes in reporting rates between periods in both programmes to explore the resistance (the ability to persist during drought) and resilience (extent of recovery post-drought) of species to climate extremes. Results There was a substantial decline in the reporting rates of 42-62% (depending on programme) of species between surveys conducted early and late in the Big Dry. In the Big Wet, there was some recovery, with 21-29% of species increasing substantially. However, more than half of species did not recover and 14-27% of species continued to decline in reporting rate compared with early on in the Big Dry. Species' responses were not strongly related to ecological traits. Species resistance to the drought was inversely related to resilience in the Big Wet for 20-35% of the species, while 76-78% of species with low resistance showed an overall decline across the study period. Conclusions As declines occurred largely irrespective of ecological traits, this suggests a widespread mechanism is responsible. Species that declined the most during the Big Dry did not necessarily show the greatest recoveries. In already much modified regions, climate extremes such as extended drought will induce on-going changes in the biota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Species distribution models are an invaluable tool for anticipating the potential range of invasive species. These models often improve when both native and non-native occurrences are available for model development and validation. Therefore, how might ecologists anticipate the potential distributions for emerging invasive species that lack any or abundant non-native range occurrences? Here, we evaluate the recent suggestion of transferring niche shifts from well-established 'avatar' invaders to emerging invaders by testing if ensemble niche shifts from a group of globally invasive plants improve model predictions when each of these species is iteratively treated as an 'emerging' invader. Location Global. Methods We built species distribution models using Mahalanobis distance and four climatic predictors (maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation) for 26 invasive terrestrial plants from an Australian priority list of weeds. Models using only native range occurrences for each species were modified with avatar niche shifts from the remaining ensemble of 25 species based on both a typical (median) niche shift and a large (extreme) niche shift (or niche expansion). Native range and both median and extreme avatar models were then compared with total range models (developed with both native and non-native occurrences) for performance by measures of discrimination and an approximation of calibration. Results Avatar niche shifts reduced errors of omission for known non-native occurrences relative to native range models, with a trade-off of increased errors of commission of lesser magnitude. Further, our approximation of model calibration measured relative to total range models improved with avatar niche shifts. Differences between native range and avatar models were most pronounced for the larger 'extreme' avatar niche shifts (or expansion) based on increased niche size and decreased (towards 0) covariance among climatic axes. Main conclusions We suggest that researchers and managers evaluating risk of invasion of their jurisdiction by emerging data-poor invaders modify native range models with observed avatar niche shifts from ensembles of well-studied invaders. Alternative implementations of the avatar invader concept are discussed and research needs for methodological improvements proposed. Despite these opportunities for improved implementation of avatar niche shifts, ample evidence now supports that researchers should expect models based on only native ranges to underestimate or misrepresent the total range for data-poor emerging invaders. Avatar niche shifts (and specifically expansion) from well-studied species offer a precautionary means to anticipate the extent to which native range models may underestimate total ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author discusses the various aspects of ecosystems in four dimensions. He talks about the classical importance of defining spatial boundaries with the development of geographical information systems and mathematical approaches for dealing with gradients of change. Also tackled is the relationship between plants and soils.

Climate change has caused widespread shifts in species' phenology, but the consequences for population and community dynamics remain unclear because of uncertainty regarding the species‐specific drivers of phenology and abundance, and the implications for synchrony among interacting species. Here, we develop a statistical model to quantify inter‐annual variation in phenology and abundance over an environmental gradient, and use it to identify potential drivers of phenology and abundance in co‐occurring species. We fit the model to counts of 10 butterfly species with single annual generations over a mountain elevation gradient, as an exemplar system in which temporally limited availability of biotic resources and favorable abiotic conditions impose narrow windows of seasonal activity. We estimate parameters describing changes in abundance, and the peak time and duration of the flight period, over ten years (2004–2013) and across twenty sample locations (930–2,050 m) in central Spain. We also use the model outputs to investigate relationships of phenology and abundance with temperature and rainfall. Annual shifts in phenology were remarkably consistent among species, typically showing earlier flight periods during years with warm conditions in March or May–June. In contrast, inter‐annual variation in relative abundance was more variable among species, and generally less well associated with climatic conditions. Nevertheless, warmer temperatures in June were associated with increased relative population growth in three species, and five species had increased relative population growth in years with earlier flight periods. These results suggest that broadly coherent interspecific changes to phenology could help to maintain temporal synchrony in community dynamics under climate change, but that the relative composition of communities may vary due to interspecific inconsistency in population dynamic responses to climate change. However, it may still be possible to predict abundance change for species based on a robust understanding of relationships between their population dynamics and phenology, and the environmental drivers of both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting species' distributions and abundances worldwide. Baseline population estimates, against which future observations may be compared, are necessary if we are to detect ecological change. Arctic sea ice ecosystems are changing rapidly and we lack baseline population estimates for many ice‐associated species. Provided we can detect them, changes in Arctic marine ecosystems may be signaled by changes in indicator species such as ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Ringed seal monitoring has provided estimates of survival and fertility rates, but these have not been used for population‐level inference. Using matrix population models, we synthesized existing demographic parameters to obtain estimates of historical ringed seal population growth and structure in Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound, Canada. We then formalized existing hypotheses about the effects of emerging environmental stressors (i.e., earlier spring ice breakup and reduced snow depth) on ringed seal pup survival. Coupling the demographic model to ice and snow forecasts available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project resulted in projections of ringed seal population size and structure up to the year 2100. These projections showed median declines in population size ranging from 50% to 99%. Corresponding to these projected declines were substantial changes in population structure, with increasing proportions of ringed seal pups and adults and declining proportions of juveniles. We explored if currently collected, harvest‐based data could be used to detect the projected changes in population stage structure. Our model suggests that at a present sample size of 100 seals per year, the projected changes in stage structure would only be reliably detected by mid‐century, even for the most extreme climate models. This modeling process revealed inconsistencies in existing estimates of ringed seal demographic rates. Mathematical population models such as these can contribute both to understanding past population trends as well as predicting future ones, both of which are necessary if we are to detect and interpret future observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]