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Population structure has been known to substantially affect evolutionary dynamics. Networks that promote the spreading of fitter mutants are called amplifiers of selection, and those that suppress the spreading of fitter mutants are called suppressors of selection. Research in the past two decades has found various families of amplifiers while suppressors still remain somewhat elusive. It has also been discovered that most networks are amplifiers of selection under the birth-death updating combined with uniform initialization, which is a standard condition assumed widely in the literature. In the present study, we extend the birth-death processes to temporal (i.e., time-varying) networks. For the sake of tractability, we restrict ourselves to switching temporal networks, in which the network structure deterministically alternates between two static networks at constant time intervals or stochastically in a Markovian manner. We show that, in a majority of cases, switching networks are less amplifying than both of the two static networks constituting the switching networks. Furthermore, most small switching networks, i.e., networks on six nodes or less, are suppressors, which contrasts to the case of static networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a flexible growth model that constitutes a suitable generalization of the well-known Gompertz model. We perform an analysis of various features of interest, including a sensitivity analysis of the initial value and the three parameters of the model. We show that the considered model provides a good fit to some real datasets concerning the growth of the number of individuals infected during the COVID-19 outbreak, and software failure data. The goodness of fit is established on the ground of the ISRP metric and the d 2 -distance. We also analyze two time-inhomogeneous stochastic processes, namely a birth-death process and a birth process, whose means are equal to the proposed growth curve. In the first case we obtain the probability of ultimate extinction, being 0 an absorbing endpoint. We also deal with a threshold crossing problem both for the proposed growth curve and the corresponding birth process. A simulation procedure for the latter process is also exploited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this contribution, a general expression is derived for the probability density of the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of a simple birth–death tree, a widely used stochastic null-model of biological speciation and extinction, conditioned on the constant birth and death rates and number of extant lineages. This density is contrasted with a previous result which was obtained using a uniform prior for the time of origin. The new distribution is applied to two problems of phylogenetic interest. First, that of the probability of the number of taxa existing at any time in the past in a tree of a known number of extant species, and given birth and death rates, and second, that of determining the TMRCA of two randomly selected taxa in an unobserved tree that is produced by a simple birth-only, or Yule, process. In the latter case, it is assumed that only the rate of bifurcation (speciation) and the size, or number of tips, are known. This is shown to lead to a closed-form analytical expression for the probability distribution of this parameter, which is arrived at based on the known mathematical form of the age distribution of Yule trees of a given size and branching rate, which is derived here de novo, and a similar distribution which additionally is conditioned on tree age. The new distribution is the exact Yule prior for divergence times of pairs of taxa under the stated conditions and is potentially useful in statistical (Bayesian) inference studies of phylogenies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A form of time series path integral expansion is provided that enables both analytic and numerical temporal effect calculations for a range of stochastic processes. All methods rely on finding a suitable reproducing kernel associated with an underlying representative algebra to perform the expansion. Birth–death processes can be analysed with these techniques, using either standard Doi-Peliti coherent states, or the s u (1 , 1) Lie algebra. These result in simplest expansions for processes with linear or quadratic rates, respectively. The techniques are also adapted to diffusion processes. The resulting series differ from those found in standard Dyson time series field theory techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the birth—death Q-matrix with regular boundary, its minimal process and its maximal process are closely related. In this paper, we obtain the uniform decay rate and the quasi-stationary distribution for the minimal process. And via the construction theory, we mainly derive the eigentime identity and the distribution of the fastest strong stationary time (FSST) for the maximal process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The simple (linear) birth-and-death process is a widely used stochastic model for describing the dynamics of a population. When the process is observed discretely over time, despite the large amount of literature on the subject, little is known about formal estimator properties. Here we will show that its application to observed data is further complicated by the fact that numerical evaluation of the well-known transition probability is an ill-conditioned problem. To overcome this difficulty we will rewrite the transition probability in terms of a Gaussian hypergeometric function and subsequently obtain a three-term recurrence relation for its accurate evaluation. We will also study the properties of the hypergeometric function as a solution to the three-term recurrence relation. We will then provide formulas for the gradient and Hessian of the log-likelihood function and conclude the article by applying our methods for numerically computing maximum likelihood estimates in both simulated and real dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Molecular phylogenies have been increasingly recognized as an important source of information on species diversification. For many models of macroevolution, analytical likelihood formulas have been derived to infer macroevolutionary parameters from phylogenies. A few years ago, a general framework to numerically compute such likelihood formulas was proposed, which accommodates models that allow speciation and/or extinction rates to depend on diversity. This framework calculates the likelihood as the probability of the diversification process being consistent with the phylogeny from the root to the tips. However, while some readers found the framework presented in Etienne et al. (Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 279(1732):1300–1309, 2012) convincing, others still questioned it (personal communication), despite numerical evidence that for special cases the framework yields the same (i.e., within double precision) numerical value for the likelihood as analytical formulas do that were independently derived for these special cases. Here we prove analytically that the likelihoods calculated in the new framework are correct for all special cases with known analytical likelihood formula. Our results thus add substantial mathematical support for the overall coherence of the general framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The L p maximal inequalities for martingales are one of the classical results in probability theory. Here we establish the sharp moderate maximal inequalities for upward skip-free Markov chains, which include the L p maximal inequalities as special cases. Furthermore, we apply our theory to two specific examples and obtain their moderate maximal inequalities: the first one is the M/M/1 queue and the second one is an upward skip-free Markov chain with large death jumps. These two examples have the same total birth and death rates. However, the former exhibits a phase transition phenomenon while the latter does not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate integral-type functionals of the first hitting times for continuous-time Markov chains. Recursive formulas and drift conditions for calculating or bounding integral-type functionals are obtained. The connection between the subexponential integral-type functionals and the subexponential ergodicity is established. Moreover, these results are applied to the birth-death processes. Polynomial integral-type functionals and polynomial ergodicity are studied, and a sufficient criterion for a central limit theorem is also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for evaluating finite-time transition probabilities of bivariate processes, however, has restricted statistical inference in these models. Researchers rely on computationally expensive methods such as matrix exponentiation or Monte Carlo approximation, restricting likelihood-based inference to small systems, or indirect methods such as approximate Bayesian computation. In this paper, we introduce the birth/birth-death process, a tractable bivariate extension of the birth-death process, where rates are allowed to be nonlinear. We develop an efficient algorithm to calculate its transition probabilities using a continued fraction representation of their Laplace transforms. Next, we identify several exemplary models arising in molecular epidemiology, macro-parasite evolution, and infectious disease modeling that fall within this class, and demonstrate advantages of our proposed method over existing approaches to inference in these models. Notably, the ubiquitous stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model falls within this class, and we emphasize that computable transition probabilities newly enable direct inference of parameters in the SIR model. We also propose a very fast method for approximating the transition probabilities under the SIR model via a novel branching process simplification, and compare it to the continued fraction representation method with application to the 17th century plague in Eyam. Although the two methods produce similar maximum a posteriori estimates, the branching process approximation fails to capture the correlation structure in the joint posterior distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planning a powerful server imposes an enormous cost for providing ideal performance. Given that a server responding for web requests is more likely to consume RAM memory than other resources, it is desirable to provide an appropriate RAM capacity for optimal performance of server in congested situations. This can be done through RAM usage modeling and its performance evaluation. In the literature, modeling of RAM usage is not provided with mathematical modeling. We propose an approach to model RAM usage of such a server, based on birth-death process in this article. The model can be used to figure out an operation research problem of finding minimum RAM capacity covering intended constraints elicited from birth-death queuing system. We show how optimal RAM capacity can be obtained using our approach with an illustrative example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a novel channel model for massive multiple-input multiple-out (MIMO) communication systems that incorporate the spherical wave-front assumption and non-stationary properties of clusters on both the array and time axes. Because of the large dimension of the antenna array in massive MIMO systems, the spherical wave-front is assumed to characterize near-field effects resulting in angle of arrival (AoA) shifts and Doppler frequency variations on the antenna array. Additionally, a novel visibility region method is proposed to capture the non-stationary properties of clusters at the receiver side. Combined with the birth-death process, a novel cluster evolution algorithm is proposed. The impacts of cluster evolution and the spherical wave-front assumption on the statistical properties of the channel model are investigated. Meanwhile, corresponding to the theoretical model, a simulation model with a finite number of rays that capture channel characteristics as accurately as possible is proposed. Finally, numerical analysis shows that our proposed non-stationary channel model is effective in capturing the characteristics of a massive MIMO channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a rate balance principle for general (not necessarily Markovian) stochastic processes. Special attention is given to processes with birth-and-death-like transitions, for which it is shown that for any state n, the rate of two consecutive transitions from $$n-1$$ to $$n+1$$ coincides with the corresponding rate from $$n+1$$ to $$n-1$$ . We demonstrate how useful this observation is by deriving well-known, as well as new, results for non-memoryless queues with state-dependent arrival and service processes. We also use the rate balance principle to derive new results for a state-dependent queue with batch arrivals, which is a model with non-birth-and-death-like transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper in this journal, Gong, Mao and Zhang, using the theory of Dirichlet forms, extended Karlin and McGregor's classical results on first-hitting times of a birth-death process on the nonnegative integers by establishing a representation for the Laplace transform $${\mathbb {E}}[e^{sT_{ij}}]$$ of the first-hitting time $$T_{ij}$$ for any pair of states i and j, as well as asymptotics for $${\mathbb {E}}[e^{sT_{ij}}]$$ when either i or j tends to infinity. It will be shown here that these results may also be obtained by employing tools from the orthogonal-polynomial toolbox used by Karlin and McGregor, in particular associated polynomials and Markov's theorem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop mathematical models describing the evolution of stochastic age-structured populations. After reviewing existing approaches, we formulate a complete kinetic framework for age-structured interacting populations undergoing birth, death and fission processes in spatially dependent environments. We define the full probability density for the population-size age chart and find results under specific conditions. Connections with more classical models are also explicitly derived. In particular, we show that factorial moments for non-interacting processes are described by a natural generalization of the McKendrick-von Foerster equation, which describes mean-field deterministic behavior. Our approach utilizes mixed-type, multidimensional probability distributions similar to those employed in the study of gas kinetics and with terms that satisfy BBGKY-like equation hierarchies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a discrete-time population dynamics with age-dependent structure. At every time step, one of the alive individuals from the population is chosen randomly and removed with probability $$q_k$$ depending on its age, whereas a new individual of age 1 is born with probability r. The model can also describe a single queue in which the service order is random while the service efficiency depends on a customer's 'age' in the queue. We propose a mean field approximation to investigate the long-time asymptotic behavior of the mean population size. The age dependence is shown to lead to anomalous power-law growth of the population at the critical regime. The scaling exponent is determined by the asymptotic behavior of the probabilities $$q_k$$ at large k. The mean field approximation is validated by Monte Carlo simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the relationship between stationary distributions for stochastic models of reaction systems and Lyapunov functions for their deterministic counterparts. Specifically, we derive the well-known Lyapunov function of reaction network theory as a scaling limit of the non-equilibrium potential of the stationary distribution of stochastically modeled complex balanced systems. We extend this result to general birth-death models and demonstrate via example that similar scaling limits can yield Lyapunov functions even for models that are not complex or detailed balanced, and may even have multiple equilibria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study, for a given process $\mathcal{X}$, the conditions under which ν-similarity is provided, relations between similarity and ν-similarity of processes, and we analyze (doubly) limiting conditional distributions. We present sufficient conditions for the existence of at least one ν-similar process to a given one. Moreover, recursive formulas for birth and death rates of ν-similar processes are formulated. We apply differential equations and uniqueness of solutions to such equations to derive the main results of the paper. Finally, an example illustrates the applications of our results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A popular line of research in evolutionary biology is the use of time-calibrated phylogenies for the inference of diversification processes. This requires computing the likelihood of a given ultrametric tree as the reconstructed tree produced by a given model of diversification. Etienne and Rosindell in Syst Biol 61(2):204-213, () proposed a lineage-based model of diversification, called protracted speciation, where species remain incipient during a random duration before turning good species, and showed that this can explain the slowdown in lineage accumulation observed in real phylogenies. However, they were unable to provide a general likelihood formula. Here, we present a likelihood formula for protracted speciation models, where rates at which species turn good or become extinct can depend both on their age and on time. Our only restrictive assumption is that speciation rate does not depend on species status. Our likelihood formula utilizes a new technique, based on the contour of the phylogenetic tree and first developed by Lambert in Ann Probab 38(1):348-395, (). We consider the reconstructed trees spanned by all extant species, by all good extant species, or by all representative species, which are either good extant species or incipient species representative of some good extinct species. Specifically, we prove that each of these trees is a coalescent point process, that is, a planar, ultrametric tree where the coalescence times between two consecutive tips are independent, identically distributed random variables. We characterize the common distribution of these coalescence times in some, biologically meaningful, special cases for which the likelihood reduces to an elegant analytical formula or becomes numerically tractable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By using the Mecke identity, we study a class of birth-death type Dirichlet forms associated with the mixed Poisson measure. Both Poincaré and weak Poincaré inequalities are established, while another Poincaré type inequality is disproved under some reasonable assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]