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The Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains (HDM) are recognized as two global biodiversity hotspots, harboring the world's richest alpine flora. However, to what extent the distribution of alpine plants here is affected by climate change remains largely unknown. Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) are perennial medicinal herbs mainly distributed in the Himalaya-HDM region. In this study, we used bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of three Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) species. Our results revealed that the geographical distribution of the studied Bergenia species is primarily influenced by precipitation and elevation. By 2090, the three Bergenia species are expected to show contrasting range changes. The western Himalayan alpine species Bergenia stracheyi is expected to expand its range with 21.93 and 17.36% under the optimistic (SSP1-2.6) and moderate (SSP2-4.5) climate change scenario, respectively, while its distribution will shrink by 5.26% under the pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5). The Himalayan mid-elevation species B. ciliata is expected to expand its range from 142.42 to 157.14%. In contrast, the distribution range of the east Himalaya-HDM alpine species B. purpurascens is expected to shrink with 34.88 to 47.24%, with most of the habitats in the southeast chains of the HDM at lower elevation summits being lost. In addition, all three Bergenia species are projected to shift their ranges to higher elevations in response to temperature increases. Overall, we conclude that alpine plants may be more vulnerable to climate change than their congeners at lower elevations, supporting the "nowhere to go" hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observed climate change leads to the variations in the phenology, physiology, and biochemistry of grape berries, to a shift in the distribution of the grape plant areas and, as a result, to a change in the specialization of associated regions. Using the agroclimatic indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impact on viticulture, a comprehensive assessment of the grape growth conditions, potential quality of wine, and the climate-related risks in the Crimea and Donbass (on the example of Sevastopol and Artemovsk) over two 30-year periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) has been carried out. The results have shown a significant change in climatic conditions: an increase in heat availability in both regions and a decrease in frost susceptibility in the south of Donbass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is very important for the distribution of plant resources, especially for crops. Angelica plants have a long history of use and significant crop resources in China, whose rhizomes are extensively used in medicine and food. In this paper, 1599 georeferenced herbarium records were analyzed using DIVA-GIS, and the ecological distribution and richness of the current and future distribution simulation were analyzed using the MaxEnt model. The results show that they are from 32 provinces in China. Among these provinces, Sichuan, Gansu, and Yunnan have the largest number of herbariums. According to the MaxEnt model simulation, it is found that the precipitation in the warmest season, annual precipitation, and the driest monthly precipitation are the foremost bioclimatic variables that control the distribution of eight selected Angelica plants (A. biserrata, A. gigas, A. laxifoliata, A. likiangensis, A. longicaudata, A. omeiensis, A. polymorpha, and A. valida). It can be seen from the potential distribution map that the suitable growth areas of A. polymorpha and A. valida have increased, while the suitable growth areas of the six species of Angelica have decreased in varying degrees, 18.24%, 20.01%, 9.91%, 53.16%, 10.06%, and 12.64% respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to protect the Angelica plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is closely related to the distribution of plant resources. Cerasus serrulata is an important plant resource in China. The study on the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of suitable areas of C. serrulata is conducive to the protection and development of C. serrulata. In this paper, the distribution information of 238 Chinese Cerasusserrulata plants was processed by DIVA-GIS. The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the current and future distribution, and the ecological distribution and richness of Cerasus were analyzed. The results showed that the Cerasus serrulata was widely distributed in Hebei, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces, mainly in the low and middle elevation areas of 10 to 1200 m. Based on this model, the precipitation of the warmest quarter, the precipitation of the driest month, and the mean temperature of the coldest were the most significant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of C. serrulata. In the future, climate change may lead to a slight increase of 2.31% in the area of suitable habitat for Cerasus serrulata, while the optimal habitat will decrease from 20.81 to 14.55%. Therefore, conservation measures should be taken to protect these precious resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has an extremely important impact on the geographic distribution of plants. The genus Millettia is an important plant resource in China and is widely used in medicine and ornamental industries. Due to the continuous changes of climate and the development and utilization of plant resources of the genus Millettia, it is of great significance to systematically investigate the geographic distribution of plants of the Millettia and their potential distribution under climate change. DIVA-GIS software was used to analyze 3492 plant specimens of 35 species of genus Millettia in the herbarium, and the ecological geographic distribution and richness of Millettia were analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was used to analyze the current and potential distribution in the future. The results show that the genus Millettia is distributed in 30 provinces in China, among which Yunnan and Guangdong provinces are the most distributed. Our model determines that precipitation in the driest month and annual temperature range are the most important bioclimatic variables. Future climate changes will increase the suitable habitat area of M. congestiflora by 16.75%, but other cliff beans Suitable habitats for vines will decrease significantly: M. cinereal by 47.66%, M. oosperma by 39.16%, M. pulchra by 36.04%, M. oraria by − 29.32%, M. nitida by 22.88%, M. dielsiana by 22.72%, M. sericosema by 19.53%, M. championii by 7.77%, M. pachycarpa by 7.72%, M. speciose by 2.05%, M. reticulata by 1.32%. Therefore, targeted measures should be taken to protect and develop these precious plant resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is one of the most important elements affecting the distribution of species, and it is expected that the distribution of species will be widely influenced by climate change. In plants, edaphic factors also play a special role along with climate in determining the distribution range. The current study aimed to predict the future distribution of the Persian manna (Astragalus adscendens), an endemic perennial shrub in Zagros Mountains of Western Iran. For this purpose, two sets of static (i.e. edaphic and physiographic) and dynamic (i.e. climatic) data and an ensemble approach were used to develop two edaphic-physiographic and climatic models. Current and future suitability maps are representative of the climatic and the edaphic-physiographic niches of A. Adscendens that were obtained based on climatic suitable areas filtered by edaphic-physiographic model. The filtered map has less suitable habitats compared to the climatic model. Three dynamic variables (mean temperature of wettest quarter, temperature seasonality, temperature annual range) and two static variables (altitude and volumetric fraction of coarse fragments) were identified as the most important factors in determining the habitat of A. Adscendens. The importance of altitude was greater than latitude in maintaining or losing suitable habitats under different climate change scenarios, suggesting that the species will not have range expansion or northward shift due to no significant shift in latitude and longitude. Results revealed a sharp decline in the suitable habitats in such that 67% and 91% of the current habitat may be lost by the year 2050 and 2070, respectively. Area reduction was more extreme in future scenarios with the higher level of CO2 emission. Range contraction of A. Adscendens will increases the risk of extinction. This study provides insights into the response of mountain plants, especially range restricted species, to climate change, revealing major dimensions of plant niche. Therefore, developing habitat management and conservation plans to preserve the predicted habitats of such species are required to preserve the predicted sustainable habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to climate change, plant populations experience environmental conditions to which they are not adapted. Our understanding of the next century's vegetation geography depends on the distance, direction, and rate at which plant distributions shift in response to a changing climate. In this study we test the sensitivity of tree range shifts (measured as the difference between seedling and mature tree ranges in climate space) to wildfire occurrence, using 74,069 Forest Inventory Analysis plots across nine states in the western United States. Wildfire significantly increased the seedling-only range displacement for 2 of the 8 tree species in which seedling-only plots were displaced from tree-plus-seedling plots in the same direction with and without recent fire. The direction of climatic displacement was consistent with that expected for warmer and drier conditions. The greater seedling-only range displacement observed across burned plots suggests that fire can accelerate climate-related range shifts and that fire and fire management will play a role in the rate of vegetation redistribution in response to climate change. Tree species that are expanding their distribution in response to climate change could be hindered or facilitated by disturbances. Here the authors analyse forest inventory data from the western US to test the hypothesis that wildfire can facilitate climate-induced range shifts in trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is essential to predict areas of losses or exchanges of ecosystem services to adapt communities to the impacts caused by climate change. Particularly for provisioning ecosystem services provided by economically important plant species, understanding the association between climate change impacts and deforestation of native vegetation increases the accuracy of those predictions. Thus, we aim to (i) map the richness of provisioning ecosystem services from economically important native plants; (ii) use forecasts (present and future) of the distribution of ecosystem services to assess areas of changes in the number and type of provisioning ecosystems services. We evaluated provisioning ecosystem services from 110 Cerrado native species of economic importance for the local population. We determined the potential distribution of these plants using ecological niche modeling techniques, which were grouped according to the 21 different services provided. The forecasts for variation in richness and type of service used four future climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070). The service losses detected in our models were associated with variables representing the progress of native vegetation deforestation in the biome due to agricultural expansion. Currently, ecosystem services can be found simultaneously in practically the entire biome. However, changes in the global climate will impact the potential geographic distribution of those plants, causing many areas in the biome to have reduced availability of potential ecosystem services. Moreover, due to the association between exposure to climate change and deforestation of native vegetation, the northern region of the biome will likely have the distribution of ecosystem services severely affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present study aims to find out how evergreen tree species planted in urban parks spread to nearby wild areas. We accomplished field investigation at the Duryu Park area, Daegu, where located a transitional zone between the warm-temperate and the cool-temperate zones. From 2018 to 2019, a total of 32 floristic-sociological relevés were made. Distribution patterns of tree species connected into habitat conditions were explored by canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). 10 tree species dispersed spontaneously in the study area were recognized; Nandina domestica, Euonymus fortunei, E. japonicus, Quercus acuta, Q. glauca, Q. phillyraeoides, Elaeagnus pungens, Ligustrum japonicum, Osmanthus heterophyllus, and Ilex cornuta. Most of these trees were the preferentially ornamental plants introduced in the park since 1977 and mainly bird dispersal seeds. Q. glauca and L. japonicum appeared the most predominant dispersion. Their micro-habitats are the much humid and warmer stands of the deciduous broad-leaved forests mainly. We concluded that urban gardening has been also an important agent to recover the native vegetation if introducing potential natural vegetation (PNV). The habitat-based PNV in the Daegu area arose as a critical issue for further understanding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amphibians, especially salamanders, are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their narrow dispersal abilities and strong dependence on water. In this study, we assessed the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Algerian ribbed newt (Pleurodeles nebulosus), a salamander species endemic of Algeria and Tunisia. Using the software "Maxent", we predicted current and future distribution of this species based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five climate models by 2050. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model performance. Logistic models were converted into binary presence/absence maps using the maximum training sensitivity plus specificity threshold. Current and future maps showed an average AUC value > 0.9, thereby placing these models in the "excellent" category. Precipitation of wettest month and precipitation seasonality were the most important bioclimatic variables explaining the presence of Pleurodeles nebulosus. Current climate model predicted approximately 19,890 km2 as suitable habitats for that species, but only 11% of these habitats are covered by the protected areas. We showed that the potential distribution of the species was likely to be affected by climate change. We found a contraction ranging from 16 to 72% of its habitat depending on climate scenario used. We also found notable gaps in the protection of the species under future climate conditions. To improve the conservation of the Algerian ribbed newt within its distribution range, we suggest that future conservation measures should be focused on areas that currently have no or a low degree of protection, but which have highly suitable habitats in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scotch broom (Cytisus scoparius) is a global invasive species disrupting native species and habitats in several parts of the world. Its natural distribution spans across Europe, but seeds have also been transferred between countries, mixing plants of different genetic origins. In Denmark, Scotch broom consists of two gene pools: one is found in relatively small populations and is considered native; the other one is presumably introduced and is spreading as a noxious weed. To assess climate thresholds controlling the geographic ranges of the two gene pools, we evaluated seasonal changes in freezing tolerance (electrolyte leakage) and underlying variations in carbohydrate metabolism (HPLC) and water status of genetically different source populations representing the two gene pools. The data reveal that the introduced type is less freezing tolerant than the native type with differences being greatest in early autumn and when plants are most cold hardy, lending support to the hypothesis that insufficient freezing tolerance currently limits range expansion of the introduced Danish Scotch broom. In both gene pools, parallel increases in freezing tolerance and concentrations of sucrose and raffinose and decreasing levels of starch indicate the mobilization of soluble sugars from storage carbohydrates to achieve maximum freezing tolerance. However, genotypic differences in freezing tolerance are not explained by differences in carbohydrate metabolism, but may be related to different water contents. The observed low temperature limit for the introduced C. scoparius could provide valuable information for building process-based species distribution models predicting its geographic distribution and range shift following climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anairetes alpinus is currently categorized as an endangered species due to range fragmentation and habitat loss across its geographic distribution. Its range is only partially known, and potential effects of future climate change on its distribution have yet to be assessed. Using ecological niche models and future climates information, we assessed the geographic and environmental potential distribution of A. alpinus for the years 2050 and 2070, analyzing effects of habitat loss and the importance of existing protected areas (PAs) across the species' range. Our ecological niche models predicted a distributional range of ~ 59,000 to ~ 64,400 km2 for the species, extending from northern Peru to northern Bolivia. However, habitat loss led to an important reduction (> 57%) in the current potential suitable areas. On average, the climate change reduced the potential distributional areas by ~ 49% and ~ 61% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss are predicted to pose an even greater risk, leading to a net reduction in future potential distributions of over 75%. We also observed a shift of ~ 230 m increase in elevation between the range under present conditions and scenarios for 2050 and 2070. Although PAs were more suitable climatically than surrounding areas, for future scenarios, we observed an important reduction (on average over 25%) of proportion of PAs within the estimated distributional areas, as well as a significant (P < 0.05) reduction in mean habitat suitability values within PAs. Our novel results offer a guide for future integrative studies focused on defining conservation units and ecological corridors across the distribution of many Andean species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Artificial light at night (ALAN) represents a significant threat to biodiversity. Given that protected areas (PAs) are in relative darkness compared to the surrounding sites, they could be considered an effective tool towards eliminating the impacts of ALAN. However, the extent to which climate change-induced shifts would drive species out of PAs and thus, alter their exposure to ALAN remains an open question. Objectives: We assessed the extent and protection coverage of dark areas across the current and future distributions of 39 raptor species of European conservation interest. Methods: We initially developed a set of distribution models using current and projected climatic variables. Next, we used a satellite dataset of nighttime lights composite to determine the spread of ALAN within the raptors' ranges. Finally, we applied three indices of proportional changes in the expansion of suitable habitats and dark areas to quantify patterns in ALAN within the current and future raptors' ranges across Europe. Results: Our analyses revealed that potential future distribution shifts of raptors will lead to changes in the exposure of species to ALAN, with these patterns being rather unfavourable for most of them. Still, PAs in Europe were found to offer a relative high proportion of dark areas which overlap with the current and future raptors range. Conclusions: Our findings provided some first insights into the spatial conflict between species ranges and ALAN, considering potential distribution shifts driven by climate change. The proposed methodology offers the means to identify potential dark refugia towards prioritizing conservation actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Most future predictions of forest diversity and composition assume species will shift instantaneously. However, evidence suggests there will be considerable inertia between climate change and shifts in plant species distributions, for example due to resident communities resisting changes, the redistribution of resident species' abundances, and dispersal limitation of species attempting to track preferred climates. Objectives: To test how inertia in community responses to climate change may affect future primary productivity, and the capacity for communities to respond through local redistribution of abundances. Methods: We assessed relationships between community functional trait distributions, climate and environment with a remote-sensed measure of gross primary productivity (GPP) across 1032 woody plant communities and projected these spatially under current and future climates. Using a simulation approach, we also tested the capacity for communities to achieve future trait distributions by shifting the relative abundances of resident species. Results: We found that climate change is likely to reduce GPP in southeast Queensland, and, contrary to expectations, there is little evidence to suggest distributional inertia will contribute substantially to this loss. We show that sites with high existing functional diversity are well-placed to achieve predicted future trait compositions in the absence of long-distance dispersal through redistribution of resident species abundances. Conclusions: Our results show that sites with high existing functional diversity are well placed to achieve predicted future trait compositions in the absence of long-distance dispersal through abundance redistribution of resident species, but it is unlikely this will mitigate strong climate change-driven losses of productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Climate change will either improve, reduce, or shift its appropriate climatic habitat of a particular species, which could result in shifts from its geographical range. Predicting the potential distribution through MaxEnt modeling has been developed as an appropriate tool for assessing habitat distribution and resource conservation to protect bamboo species. Methods: Our objective is to model the current and future distribution of Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for 2050s and 2070s using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) in Northern Ethiopia. For modeling procedure, 77 occurrence records and 11 variables were retained to simulate the current and future distributions of Oxytenanthera abyssinica in Northern Ethiopia. To evaluate the performance of the model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used. Results: All of the AUCs (area under curves) were greater than 0.900, thereby placing these models in the "excellent" category. The jackknife test also showed that precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) contributed 66.8% and 54.7% to the model. From the area of current distribution, 1367.51 km2 (2.52%), 7226.28 km2 (13.29%), and 5377.26 km2 (9.89%) of the study area were recognized as high, good, and moderate potential habitats of Oxytenanthera abyssinica in Northern Ethiopia, and the high potential area was mainly concentrated in Tanqua Abergele (0.70%), Kola Temben (0.65%), Tselemti (0.60%), and Tsegede (0.31%). Kafta Humera was also the largest good potential area, which accounts for 2.75%. Compared to the current distribution, the total area of the high potential regions and good potential regions for Oxytenanthera abyssinica under the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) would increase in the 2050s and 2070s. However, the total area of the least potential regions under the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in 2050s and 2070s would decrease. Conclusion: This study can provide vital information for the protection, management, and sustainable use of Oxytenanthera abyssinica, the resource to address the global climate challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change poses a new challenge for species and can even push some species toward an extinction vortex. The most affected organisms are those with narrow tolerance to the climatic factors but many large mammals such as ungulates with a wider ecological niche are also being affected indirectly. Our research mainly used wild sheep in central Iran as a model species to explore how the suitable habitats will change under different climatic scenarios and to determine if current borders of protected areas will adequately protect habitat requirements. To create habitat models we used animal-vehicle collision points as an input for species presence data. We ran habitat models using MaxEnt modeling approach under different climatic scenarios of the past, present and future (under the climatic scenarios for minimum (RCP2.6) and maximum (RCP8.5) CO2 concentration trajectories). We tried to estimate the overlap and the width of the ecological niche using relevant metrics. In order to analyze the effectiveness of the protected areas, suitable maps were concerted to binary maps using True Skill Statistic (TSS) threshold and measured the similarity of the binary maps for each scenario using Kappa index. In order to assess the competence of the present protected areas boundary in covering the distribution of species, two different scenarios were employed, which are ensemble scenario 1: an ensemble of the binary maps of the species distribution in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP2.6; and ensemble scenario 2: an ensemble of binary suitability maps in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP8.5. Then, the borders of modeled habitats with the boundaries of 23 existing protected areas in two central provinces in Iran were compared. The predicted species distribution under scenario 1 (RCP2.6) was mostly similar to its current distribution (Kappa = 0.53) while the output model under scenario 2 (RCP8.5) indicated a decline in the species distribution range. Under the first ensemble scenario, current borders of the protected areas in Hamedan province showed better efficiency to cover the model species distribution range. Analyzing MaxEnt spatial models under the second climatic scenario suggested that protected areas in both Markazi and Hamedan provinces will not cover "high suitability" areas in the future. Modeling the efficiency of the current protected areas under predicted future climatic scenarios can help the related authorities to plan conservation activities more efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What role do people think distributional aspects should play in the design of climate policy? The literature assessing climate policies has shown that assumptions regarding peoples' distributional preferences for climate change policy impacts are central for policy assessment, but empirical evidence for such preferences is lacking. We design a discrete choice experiment that varies how climate policies affect the income of future generations living in three geographical regions, with distinctly different current and predicted future income levels. The experiment is implemented on a sample of the Danish population and preferences are modelled in a latent class model. Our results show that a small majority of the sample (60%) hold preferences consistent with inequity aversion with respect to future income effects of climate policies across regions. For the same group, we find that preferences for co-benefits for current generations reflect a form of altruism, but not inequity aversion. In both cases, the altruistic aspects are moderated by an element of preferences for positive outcomes in own region too. The remaining classes display preferences with a varying focus on impacts in their own region or simply no support for further climate policy. Our results provide some support for the inclusion of social preferences regarding distributional effects of climate change policies in policy assessments, and hence for the significant impact on policy, this inclusion will have. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering species distributions worldwide. Particularly, global warming is driving range contractions and expansions of tropical species, such as corals. The use of climatic projections, via species distribution models to predict species distributional shifts, can identify threaten species and help to set priority areas of conservation. In this study, we assessed if distributional shifts of 45 Atlantic reef-forming corals (scleractinian), and the main environmental variables driving their distributions, correlated with their phylogeny and/or their functional traits; i.e. whether expected contractions and expansions affected specific clades, or specific coral traits. We also estimated the potential loss and/or gain of species richness, phylogenetic diversity (PD) and phylogenetic species variability (PSV), as well as the phylogenetic structure of Atlantic reef communities ('clustering', 'overdispersion' or 'randomness'), under a future climate scenario (A2-IPCC-2100). The potential loss of Atlantic corals in the future will be randomly distributed across their phylogeny, i.e. potential extinctions will not only affect one section of the phylogeny, therefore alleviating an inordinate loss of evolutionary history. Nearly all current and future communities presented a 'random' phylogenetic structure. No correlation was found between distributional shifts and coral traits. Environmental variables did not show a significant correlation with the phylogeny neither with coral traits. Predicted changes in species richness, PD and PSV vary across the Atlantic; certain areas display large evolutionary diversity losses. Species belonging to isolated clades (high evolutionary distinctiveness) contribute to quantitative increases, or decreases, of PD and PSV, becoming crucial species for conservation. These findings highlight the importance of combining SDMs with phylogenetic/functional metrics to develop conservation strategies to assess the future of corals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on the distribution of major tree species in the temperate forests of Northern Iran (also known as Hyrcanian forests). We analyzed the current distributions of the eleven major tree species using an ensemble approach involving five different species distribution models (generalized linear model, generalized additive model, generalized boosting model, classification tree analysis, and random forests) and generated the ensemble maps of the current and future distribution of each species. For the future, we used five general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Finally, we mapped beta-diversity and changes in alpha-diversity of the tree species under climate change. Our analyses showed that generally, the climatically suitable habitats for most of the species tend to shift and shrink in the future. A shift in major trees boundaries will be expected both along an east-west gradient and along an altitudinal gradient under climate change scenarios. The results demonstrated that climate change is likely to exert a strong influence on beta-diversity and richness of the major tree species in northern forests of Iran. In total, beta-diversity of tree species will be higher in the central and eastern parts compared with the western areas under the climate change scenarios and the mid-elevations of the western Hyrcanian forests will likely experience the lowest beta-diversity through time, meaning that the impacts of climate change on these regions are minimal. The impacts of climate change on the distribution of major tree species in the Hyrcanian forests can be considered very severe and pose a high risk of loss in forest functions and services. Forest managers will encounter several uncertainties in the wood productions, plantation, restoration, and conservation plans due to climate change in the Hyrcanian forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses a major threat to the survival of alpine mammals living in fragmented habitats with poor dispersal abilities. Among these important prey species, pikas are considered especially vulnerable to rising temperatures that would impede their surface activity and dispersal. We investigated how climatic regimes influence the niche of the Royle's pika (Ochotona roylei), and which climatic drivers and change trajectories may threaten the species' future sustenance, thereby prioritizing areas for future conservation of this species across its distribution range. We used Royle's pika presence locations in the MaxEnt framework, along with biologically relevant climatic and topographical variables, to model the present (2010) and the future (2050, 2070) climatic niche under different future scenarios projected by CCSM4 climatic models. Subsequently, we estimated the climatic niche loss across the elevation gradient, longitudinal gradient, and both inside and outside protected areas for all countries within the species' range. Niche suitability of the Royle's pika was substantially determined by precipitation of the coldest quarter (~snow cover) and wettest quarter (~monsoon rainfall). As these parameters are known to be vulnerable to global climatic change, our projection revealed significant loss (102 km2/year) in the species niche availability across all future scenarios, particularly in non-protected low-elevation regions. By identifying areas where species survival may be threatened, we confirmed that the distribution of Royle's pika, an important prey species, might be reduced by climate change. Our findings can aid in conservation planning strategies for this species and other alpine fauna and contribute to ongoing efforts to monitor change in the Himalaya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We aimed to assess the potential impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of areas holding suitable climatic conditions for the presence of Lycalopex vetulus , and to discuss the implications of such distribution for the conservation of the species. We employed correlative modeling analyses to infer the geographic distribution of climatically suitable conditions for the species on climatic scenarios for the present and for years 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average for 2061–2080). The data consisted of species occurrences and 5 bioclimatic variables containing interpolated and averaged information on seasonal variation of temperature and precipitation. Models were projected onto climatic scenarios employing three different global circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. For each of these scenarios, we quantified the expected changes in area (km2) holding suitable climatic conditions and how much of that area is expected to be within the current Brazilian system of protected areas. Our results reveal that climate change represents a major threat for the survival of L. vetulus by drastically reducing its habitat availability in a period of time no longer than five decades from now. Experimental physiological and behavioral studies are necessary to assess whether L. vetulus is able to adequately tolerate under climatic conditions different to those under which the species is currently present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity is continually transformed by a changing climate. Conditions change across the face of the planet at variable pace leading to rearrangements of biological associations. The carbon cycle and the water cycle, arguably the two most important large-scale processes for life on Earth; depend on biodiversity at genetic, species, and ecosystem levels and can yield feedbacks to climate change. India is no less affected through this feedback mechanism of climate change and had shown its cause and effect association in several studies. In this special issue we present 25 papers contributed by ca 90 authors from India and elsewhere those discuss wide-ranging aspects of biodiversity and climate change. These contributions are based on presentations made at the 2nd International Workshop on Biodiversity and Climate Change (BDCC-2018) held on 24–27-February 2018 at the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India. The papers are arranged in six sections: Plant (and lichen) Diversity and Climate; Plant Diversity Pattern and Environmental Heterogeneity; Forest Biomass and Carbon; Plant Diversity and Remote Sensing; Species Distribution Modelling; and Animal Diversity, Soil and Biotechnology. Included amongst the contributions are ones using a national database on plant diversity, describing vegetation carbon and biomass sequestration patterns, utilizing remote sensing to assess plant diversity proxies and conservation prioritization, employing species distribution models to analyze climate change scenarios, using acoustics indices for rapid assessment of biodiversity, addressing the soil micro-biome and environmental stress on medicinal plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change enhances invasive species distribution by altering species composition in native ecosystems. Here we assessed harmony in plant invasions of two perennial exotic species of similar origin and naturalised in India, i.e., Chromolaena odorata and Tridax procumbens. Predictions made for the current condition was subsequently projected for the years 2050 and 2100 for both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios. Maximum Entropy (Maxent) was applied to assess their habitat suitability, risk area identification and shifts in range sizes. The distribution of C. odorata could mostly depend on temperature and moisture availability; and invade the biodiversity-rich regions of India viz., the Eastern Ghats, the Western Ghats, the Eastern Himalaya and the north-eastern regions. The prevalence of T. procumbens in central regions of India could demonstrate its greater dependencies on precipitation seasonality and radiation than that on temperature. These discrepancies in climatic dependencies allowed both for a harmonious distribution, i.e., inhabiting in regions not utilised by other. Both are likely to reduce their potential distribution areas in the future climate, where moisture availability is a key factor for their range expansion. The capacity to tolerate a wide range of temperature and solar radiation allowed T. procumbens to manage climate change impacts more efficiently, compared with C. odorata. The present study reveals harmony in their distributions and suggests distinct conservation protocols for each of them to control their invasion risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold acclimation is a process used by most temperate plants to cope with freezing stress. In this process, the expression of cold-responsive (COR) genes is activated and the genes undergo physiological changes in response to the exposure to low, non-freezing temperatures and other environmental signals. The C-repeat-binding factors (CBFs) have been demonstrated to regulate the expression of many COR genes. Recent studies have elucidated the molecular mechanisms of how plants transmit cold signals from the plasma membrane to the CBFs and the results have indicated that COR genes are also regulated through CBF-independent pathways. Climate change is expected to have a major impact on cold acclimation and freezing tolerance of plants. However, how climate change affects plant cold acclimation at the molecular level remains unclear. This mini-review focuses on recent advances in cold acclimation in Arabidopsis thaliana and discusses how signaling can be potentially impacted by climate change. Understanding how plants acquire cold acclimation is valuable for the improvement of the freezing tolerance in plants and for predicting the effects of climate change on plant distribution and agricultural yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Repeated climate change during glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternary led to mass migrations that resulted in disjunct distributions for many species. However, few studies have examined the processes that form disjunct distributions in Northeast Asia (NEA). In this study, we examined the disjunct distribution of Betula davurica Pall. in the Japanese archipelago. This species is a dominant canopy tree found in cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests of continental NEA. We hypothesized that Quaternary climate change caused the present disjunct distribution pattern of this species. To test this hypothesis, we adopted a species distribution model and examined a series of potential habitats in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene, and the present. We generated models in MaxEnt with B. davurica presence as the response variable and six bioclimatic variables as predictor variables. During the LGM, projected potential habitats were distributed around the Korean Peninsula, East China, and the Japanese archipelago, excluding Hokkaido. In the mid-Holocene, habitats retreated both from East China and western Japan, remained unchanged in the Korean Peninsula and central Honshu mountains, and expanded to northern China, the Russian Far East, as well as northern Japan (Hokkaido). Thus, post-LGM global warming led to an expansion of B. davurica distribution to northern parts of continental NEA, along with a retreat in the Japanese archipelago. This shift in populations formed the present disjunct distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plants adapted to special soil types are ideal for investigating evolutionary processes, including maintenance of intraspecific variation, adaptation, reproductive isolation, ecotypic differentiation, and the tempo and mode of speciation. Common garden and reciprocal transplant approaches show that both local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity contribute to edaphic (soil-related) specialization. Edaphic specialists evolve rapidly and repeatedly in some lineages, offering opportunities to investigate parallel evolution, a process less commonly documented in plants than in animals. Adaptations to soil features are often under the control of major genes and they frequently have direct or indirect effects on genes that contribute to reproductive isolation. Both reduced competitiveness and greater susceptibility to herbivory have been documented among some edaphic specialists when grown in 'normal' soils, suggesting that a high physiological cost of tolerance may result in strong divergent selection across soil boundaries. Interactions with microbes, herbivores, and pollinators influence soil specialization either by directly enhancing tolerance to extremes in soil conditions or by reducing gene flow between divergent populations. Climate change may further restrict the distribution of edaphic specialists due to increased competition from other taxa or, expand their ranges, if preadaptations to drought or other abiotic stressors render them more competitive under a novel climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountains are an excellent system for evaluating ecological and biogeographical patterns. The obvious variations of the environmental factors along the altitude create different zones with adapted plant assemblages. However, few studies make use of plant functional type (PFT) for describing the variation of vegetation along altitudinal gradients. A PFT is a group of taxa with similar traits which respond similarly to the environmental gradients. In this study, we used PFTs as indicators describing five vegetation zones in the western Alborz Mt, Iran from 2000 - 4500 m. The plant trait data presented here covers six plant traits including growth form, stemleaf ratio, spinescence, hairiness, leaf consistency and plant height of 297 species. We considered altitude and soil factors to test the importance of environmental variables. We applied a multivariate analysis of three table ordination, i.e. environmental, species, and traits data to identify the PFTs. We further applied fourth-corner statistic to quantify trait-environment relationships. A constrained hierarchical clustering was used to detect five altitudinal zones and two zones of low and high nitrogen concentration. With regard to altitude we discuss the distribution of species, traits and PFTs. Growth form, plant height and stem-leaf ratio were significantly related to altitude and nitrogen. We identified 19 PFTs from which 18 were significantly associated to one or more altitudinal zones. While the lower altitudinal zones contain a variety of PFTs higher altitudes contain less PFTs with the highest altitude containing only one single PFT, tiny rosette plants with soft mesomorphic leaves. We identified grazing and climatic harshness as well as rockiness as the most important drivers of the distribution of plant functional traits and types across the studied gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ascophyllum nodosum is a foundation macroalgae of the intertidal zone that distributes across latitude 41.3-69.7°N. We tested the hypothesis that growth of A. nodosum near the northern distribution edge increases with warming. We retrospectively quantified the growth of eight A. nodosum populations at West Greenland and North Norway (from 64°N to 69°N). For seven populations, we measured growth rates since 1997-2002 and for one of them we extended the time series back to 1956 using published estimates. Individuals at northern populations elongated between 2.0 and 9.1 cm year and this variability correlated with temperature and annual ice-free days. A spatial comparison of A. nodosum growth across the species distribution range showed that Northern (and coldest) populations grew at the slowest rates. Our results demonstrate that arctic climate change enhances the growth of A. nodosum populations and suggest that their productivity may increase in response to projected global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 ( λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year ( λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree to which tree species will shift in response to climate change is uncertain yet critical to understand for assessing ecosystem vulnerability. We analyze results from recent studies that model potential tree species habitat across the eastern United States during the coming century. Our goals were to quantify and spatially analyze habitat projections and their congruence under multiple climate scenarios and to assess the implications of habitat change for forest vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in and around protected areas. We assessed habitat projections of species habitat extent and forest composition for 35 tree species under climate change from 2000 to 2100 within National Park Service management units in the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ALCC), spanning an approximately 1,500 km latitudinal gradient. Our results show that forest composition and species ranges could change substantially under all greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and that model correspondence was stronger for projections of habitat declines than increases. Model correspondence generally increased at finer spatial scales, but varied by tree species and focal area. In the ALCC, forest composition was projected to change the most in protected area centered ecosystems (PACEs). Northeastern PACEs were projected to be suitable for tree species currently in southeastern PACEs, suggesting that intermediate suitable habitat regions could promote tree species persistence and mitigate the impacts of climate change on eastern forests. These results suggest that climate-specific management of eastern U.S. forest ecosystems will be critical but challenging, requiring integrated assessment and management of PACEs and protected areas as well as higher-resolution monitoring and modeling to inform spatially explicit management decisions within eastern U.S. parks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential geographic distribution of Fagus longipetiolata and its climatic controls are studied, based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and actual geographic distribution data of F. longipetiolata, together with the climatic factors (annual precipitation, annual average daily minimum temperature, annual average daily maximum temperature, and annual solar radiation) reflecting the effects of solar radiation, heat and water resources on plant growth, as well as annual temperature range reflecting seasonal change. The results indicate that the MaxEnt model is suitable for simulating the geographic distribution of F. longipetiolata. The importance of the five factors and their thresholds of climatic adaptability are ranged as annual precipitation ( P > 770 mm) > annual average daily minimum temperature (7 °C < T < 20 °C) > annual temperature range (DTY < 23 °C) > annual average daily maximum temperature (16 °C < T) > annual solar radiation (1.10 × 10 W/m < Radi < 1.42 × 10 W/m). The general distribution area is controlled by precipitation. Specifically, the western distribution boundary of F. longipetiolata (in Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces) relies on both temperature and solar radiation, and its northern boundary in China (in Shaanxi, Hubei and Hunan provinces) depends on the seasonal change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plants that share the same habitat often exhibit similar biological traits. As climatic conditions change with increasing elevation, biological traits are expected to vary among plant species with temperate endemic, alpine endemic, or widespread elevational distributions. On a northeast Tibetan flora including temperate (1,850-2,800 m a.s.l.), subalpine (2,800-3,400 m a.s.l.), and alpine (3,400-4,150 m a.s.l.) vegetations, we analyzed patterns of change for ten traits of 326 annual and perennial herbaceous species using both univariate and multivariate analyses. The traits selected for this study fit in different groups, i.e., traits related to light competition, photosynthesis, reproduction, defense, and dispersal. We found that plant shape (plant height and leaf distribution along stem) and leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf area) were significant predictors of plants' elevational distributions, suggesting an important role for a trade-off between light competition and biomass costs in support structures, and between photosynthetic efficiency and leaf defense. Moreover, species with a broad distribution had significantly higher seed germination and shorter first germination time, as compared to species with narrow distributions, which indicates that rapid regeneration may be crucial for widespread species. However, dispersal-related traits may not be the main factor in shaping plants' elevational distribution because no significant difference was detected in wind- and animal-dispersal ability. In addition, annual species potentially may have different strategies and adaptive mechanisms because we detected no differences in trait related to the elevational distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming is expected to cause a poleward spread of species, resulting in increased richness at mid to high latitudes and weakening the latitudinal diversity gradient. We used pollen data to test if such a change in the latitudinal diversity gradient occurred during the last major poleward shift of plant species in Europe following the end of the last glacial period. In contrast to expectations, the slope of the gradient strengthened during the Holocene. The increase in temperatures around 10 ka ago reduced diversity at mid to high latitude sites due to the gradual closure of forests. Deforestation and the introduction of agriculture during the last 5 ky had a greater impact on richness in central Europe than the earlier climate warming. These results do not support the current view that global warming alone will lead to a loss in biodiversity, and demonstrate that non-climatic human impacts on the latitudinal diversity gradient is of a greater magnitude than climate change. Climate-induced poleward shifts in plant distributions could flatten latitudinal diversity gradients. However, here the authors show that the spread of forests after the last ice age reduced diversity in central and northern Europe, and that human land-use over the past 5000 years strengthened the latitudinal gradient in plant diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]