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We investigate 21st-century hydroclimate changes over the United States (US) during winter and the sources of projection uncertainty under three emission scenarios (SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) using CMIP6 models. Our study reveals a robust intensification of winter precipitation across the US, except in the Southern Great Plains, where changes are very small. By the end of the 21st century, winter precipitation is projected to increase by about 2–5% K−1 over most of the US. The frequency of very wet winters is also expected to increase, with 6–7 out of 30 winters exceeding the very wet threshold under the different scenarios. Our results suggest that the enhancement of future winter precipitation is modulated largely by coupled dynamic and thermodynamic responses, though partly offset by thermodynamic responses. Overall, our results highlight a high likelihood of increasing impacts from winter precipitation due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southern Himalayas, characterized by its dense population and hot, humid summers, are confronted with some of the world's most severe heat stress risks. This study uses the hourly ERA5 dataset (1979–2022) and CMIP6 projections (2005–2100) to evaluate past and future heat stress based on the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). This has significant implications for the management of occupational workloads in the southern Himalayas. Heat stress levels are classified into 6 categories (0 to 5) using WBGT threshold intervals of 23 °C, 25 °C, 28 °C, 30 °C, and 33 °C. With heat stress surpassing level 3 for almost half of the time, people are constrained to engage in less than moderate workloads to ensure their health remains uncompromised. Flow-analogous algorithm is employed to contextualize the unprecedented heat stress case in the summer of 2020 and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns from historical and future perspectives. The results show that over 80% of the time in 2020, heat stress levels were at 3 and 4. The identified circulation pattern explains 27.6% of the extreme intensity, and such an extreme would have been nearly impossible in pre-21st-century climate conditions under the identified pattern. Future projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate that heat stress similar to what was experienced in 2020 will likely become a common occurrence across the southern Himalayas. Under a similar circulation pattern, the heat stress levels by the end of the 21st century would be elevated by at least one category compared to the climatic baseline in over 70% of the region, leading to an additional 120.5 (420.1) million daily population exposed to the highest heat stress level under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has accelerated alpine glacier melting and led to an increased risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper extracted glacial lake boundaries in the Tienshan Mountains of Central Asia from 1990 to 2023, analyzed their spatiotemporal variations and evaluated their risk levels under current and future scenarios. The results show that glacial lakes are predominantly distributed in the Central and Western Tienshan, accounting for 75% of the total number in the Tienshan region. The number and area of glacial lakes increased by 148% (from 1837 to 4557) and 71.83% (from 119.73 to 205.73 km2) during 1990 to 2023, with moraine lake expansion predominating. In the Western Tienshan, the high or very high risk of GLOF is 3–4 times that of other areas. By the middle of the twenty-first century, GLOF risk will continue to increase, especially in the Western Tienshan. This study can provide scientific foundation for disaster mitigation in the downstream areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant strides have been made in understanding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, yet its long-lead prediction remains challenging, especially for the El Niño events after 2000. Sea surface salinity (SSS) is known to affect ENSO development and intensity by influencing ocean stratification and heat redistribution and therefore, when combined with sea surface temperature (SST) data, can potentially enhance ENSO forecast skill. In this study, we develop a deep learning (DL) model that incorporates a multiscale-pyramid structure and spatiotemporal feature extraction blocks, and the model successfully extends effective ENSO forecast lead time to 24 months for 2000–2021 with reduced effect of the spring predictability barrier (SPB). Interpretable methods are then applied to reveal the time-dependent roles of SST and SSS in ENSO forecast. More specifically, SST is critical for short-medium lead forecasts (<1 year), while SSS is important for medium-long lead forecasts (>6 months). Furthermore, we track global SST and SSS spatiotemporal shifts related to subsequent ENSO development, highlighting the importance of ocean inter-basin and tropics-extratropics interactions. With increasing availability of satellite SSS observations, our findings unveil unprecedented potential for advancing ENSO long-lead forecast skills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is an editorial introduction to a special issue commemorating the centenary of Evald Ilyenkov, a prominent Soviet philosopher. Ilyenkov was known for his contributions to Marxist philosophy and his work on dialectical logic, the theory of the ideal, and the philosophy of mind. The special issue includes essays from various scholars discussing Ilyenkov's influence and ideas, as well as his relationship with other philosophers such as Vygotsky and Spinoza. The issue aims to highlight the contemporary relevance of Ilyenkov's thought and its potential for interdisciplinary research in fields such as education, continental philosophy, and cognitive science. [Extracted from the article]

Bangladesh, a sub-tropical monsoon climate with low-lying areas, is very susceptible to the impacts of climate change. However, there has been a shortage of studies about the periodicity and projected changes in extreme temperature in this area, which is a crucial part of adapting to climate change. A study employed a multimodal ensemble (MME) mean of 13 bias-corrected CMIP6 GCMs to fill this knowledge gap. The purpose of this study was to project changes in 8 extreme temperature indices (ETIs) across Bangladesh for the near future (2021–2060) and far future (2061–2100) under two different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): medium (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The research analyzed the average spatiotemporal changes by considering the reference period from 1995 to 2014 for each indicator in future periods. The results indicate that Bangladesh is projected to see a rise in average annual temperature in the 21st century, aligning with the global average. Warm days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p) were projected to increase, while cold days (TX10p) and nights (TN10p) were expected to decrease across the country for both the near (2021–2060) and far future (2061–2100). The projected highest increase in TX90p and TN90p was 6.90 days/decade in the northeast, and the highest decrease in TX10p and TN10p was 6.22 days/decade in the southwest. The study revealed a higher rise in TN90p than TX90p, indicating a faster decline in cold extremes than a rise in hot extremes. The rising temperature would cause an increase in the spell duration index (WSDI) and growing degree day (GDD) by 5–6 and 6–7 days/decade, respectively. Therefore, immediate measures must be taken to mitigate the detrimental effects of extreme temperatures, leading to heat stress. To reduce the effects on agriculture, ecosystems, human health, and biodiversity, policymakers and stakeholders must understand these anticipated changes and adopt appropriate actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demands of learning in the twenty-first century require being skilled in the use and comprehension of multiple documents. Some individual factors such as the metacognitive skill of theory of mind (ToM) are related to this ability. This study investigated the relationship between university students' ability to comprehend multiple documents, measured through an argumentative essay task, and their ToM. The participants were 84 undergraduates. We assessed their ToM (using the strange stories task) and their mental state talk (using a think-aloud protocol during the reading of multiple documents—MSTR—and through the content of their subsequent written essays—MSTW). The relation between students' ToM and their MSTW was mediated through MSTR. In addition, students' ToM was significantly associated with the quality of the essays, through MSTR, and the relation between MSTR and the argumentative quality was mediated through MSTW. MSTW was the only significant predictor of the quality of the essays. The involvement of ToM in multiple-document comprehension suggests, from an educational perspective, the possibility to support multiple-document comprehension by scaffolding mental state talk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics of the vegetation fire (VF) regime are strongly influenced by geographical variables such as regional physiographic settings, location, and climate. Understanding the VF regime is extremely important for managing and mitigating the impacts of fires on ecosystems, communities, and human activities in forest fire-prone regions. The present study thereby aimed to explore the potential effects of the confounding factors on VF in India to offer actionable and achievable solutions for mitigating this concurring environmental issue sustainably. A global burn area (250 m) data (Fire-CCIv5.1) and fire radiative power (FRP) were used to investigate the dynamics of VF across seven different divisions in India. The study also used the maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, population density, and intensity of human modification to model forest burn areas (including grassland). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) was used to predict the burn area for 2030 and 2050 future climate scenarios. The present study accounted for a sizable increasing trend of VF during 2001–2019 period. The highest increasing trend was found in central India (513 and 343 km2 year−1 in the forest and crop fire, respectively), followed by southern India (364 km2 year−1 in forest fire), and upper Indo-Gangetic plain (128 km2 year−1 in crop fire). The FRP has varied significantly across the divisions, with the north-eastern Himalayas exhibiting the highest FRP hotspot. The maximum and minimum temperatures have the greatest influence on forest fires, according to Random Forest (RF) modeling. The estimated pre-monsoonal burn area for 2050 and 2050 future scenarios suggested a more frequent forest fire occurrence across India, particularly in southern and central India. A comprehensive forest fire control policy is therefore essential to safeguard and conserve forest cover in the regions, affected by forest fire periodically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A substantial amount of research, resources, and effort has been invested in the search for a 'holy grail' of twenty-first century leadership competencies. Ironically, despite the increasing significance of leadership and the substantial investments in uncovering the attributes of successful leaders, concerns persist regarding the quality of leadership worldwide. While the literature extensively outlines 'what' twenty-first century-ready leaders should embody, there remains a gap in outlining 'how' to nurture such leaders. We contrast existing practices that have focused on teaching functional content and relying on retrospective and deficit-based competency models by advocating for a strengths-based perspective. While there has been an increasing interest in positive psychology, which promotes a shift away from prevalent deficit correction approaches towards a framework that emphasises social-emotional and meta-cognitive strengths, character strengths have received little attention in corporate leader development programmes. We argue that nurturing character strengths offers a more sustainable, self-reinforcing process for twenty-first century leader development to overcome the limitations of short-lived leadership training results that fade over time. The Values in Action Classification of Character Strengths and Virtues provides a robust framework for identifying and nurturing these strengths. However, character strengths have traditionally been viewed as personal attributes, rather than leadership competencies. We challenge traditional views on leader development by arguing that character strengths reflect the competencies required of twenty-first century-ready leaders, as these more 'humane' characteristics remain relevant over time and valued across cultures because they represent qualities that are universally appreciated in defining 'what makes a good person'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately and reliably predicting droughts under multiple models of Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a challenging task. To address this challenge, the Multimodel Ensemble (MME) method has become a valuable tool for merging multiple models and producing more accurate forecasts. This paper aims to enhance drought monitoring modules for the twenty-first century using multiple GCMs. To achieve this goal, the research introduces a new weighing paradigm called the Multimodel Homo-min Pertinence-max Hybrid Weighted Average (MHmPmHWAR) for the accurate aggregation of multiple GCMs. Secondly, the research proposes a new drought index called the Condensed Multimodal Multi-Scalar Standardized Drought Index (CMMSDI). To assess the effectiveness of MHmPmHWAR, the research compared its findings with the Simple Model Average (SMA). In the application, eighteen different GCM models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were considered at thirty-two grid points of the Tibet Plateau region. Mann–Kendall (MK) test statistics and Steady States Probabilities (SSPs) of Markov chain were used to assess the long-term trend in drought and its classes. The analysis of trends indicated that the number of grid points demonstrating an upward trend was significantly greater than those displaying a downward trend in terms of spatial coverage, at a significance level of 0.05. When examining scenario SSP1-2.6, the probability of moderate wet and normal drought was greater in nearly all temporal scales than other categories. The outcomes of SSP2-4.5 demonstrated that the likelihoods of moderate drought and normal drought were higher than other classifications. Additionally, the results of SSP5-8.5 were comparable to those of SSP2-4.5, underscoring the importance of taking effective actions to alleviate drought impacts in the future. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the MHmPmHWAR and CMMSDI approaches in predicting droughts under multiple GCMs, which can contribute to effective drought monitoring and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive analysis of regional climate changes is essential in arid and semi-arid regions to optimize water resources management. This research aims to evaluate the changes in temperature and precipitation across the Mujib Basin in Jordan, using the most recent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model. Firstly, the performance of six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation from 1985 to 2014 was evaluated using observed climate data. The most suitable GCM was then bias-corrected using the linear scaling approach. The findings demonstrate that the EC-Earth3–Veg model could reasonably simulate the historical climate pattern of the Mujib Basin, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.90, 0.83, and 0.65 for monthly Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation, respectively. Under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, Tmax is projected to increase by 1.4 to 3.9 °C and 1.6 to 6.8 °C, respectively, whereas Tmin increases from 1.4 to 3.4 °C and 1.6 to 6.4 °C. Furthermore, precipitation is projected to decrease by 4.61–23.2% at the end of the 21st century. These findings could help policymakers in formulating better adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change in Jordan This is a crucial step toward becoming a climate-resilient nation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ageing of the population is one of the most significant social transformations that the twenty first century is showcasing and a challenge that impacts society at large. The elderly, inasmuch as everybody else, are confronted with continuous transformations that are induced by technology, although they seldom benefit from the opportunities that technology entails. The digital divide amongst various segments of the population is often age-related and due to different reasons, including biological, psychological, social and financial ones. There is an ongoing reflection pertaining to the factors that hinders the full adoption of ICTs by the elderly and a question regarding what can be done to overcome their poor involvement in technology. This article, based on the results of a recent research, which has been conducted in Italy, aims at highlighting the importance of engaging the elderly in the use of technology as a key to building bridges between generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For countless citizens in the United States, guns are objects of personal attachment that provide strong feelings of power and security. I argue that a key reason for such tight affective bonds is that, under certain conditions, guns become integrated into their owners' embodied experience. To flesh out this view, I explain (a) how firearms, as material artifacts, can become a part of the feeling body and (b) how this integration impacts one's experience of self, others, and the world. I first apply the distinction between body-incorporation and body-extension by De Preester and Tsakiris (Phenomenol Cogn Sci 8:307–319, 2009) to delineate how guns can (and cannot) be integrated into lived bodies. I then introduce Ihde's (Technology and the life world: from garden to earth, Indiana University Press, Bloomington, 1990) notion of embodiment relations to elaborate on the key experiential features of technologically extended bodies and complement the previous, sensorimotor-centric accounts of bodily extension with Colombetti's (Phenomenology for the twenty-first century, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2016) concept of affective incorporation. With this theoretical framework in place, I proceed to examine the motives and affective dynamics involved in the incorporation of guns, the practices by which this incorporation is constituted, and its impact on gun carriers' habitual comportment. In doing so, I identify two notable contradictions: first, between a desire for the power afforded by firearms and the lack in oneself that this power implies, and second, between one's seemingly beneficial feelings of confidence/safety and potentially harmful transformations in one's perceptions of threat. To conclude, I discuss how my analysis challenges current theorization on technologically extended bodies and consider its relevance for ongoing debates over gun policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is less consensus on whether human activities have significantly altered tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, given the relatively short duration of reliable observed records. Understanding and projecting TC frequency change is more challenging in certain coastal regions with lower TC activity yet high exposure, such as Western Europe. Here, we show, with large-ensemble simulations, that the observed increase in TC frequency near Western Europe from 1966 to 2020 is likely linked to the anthropogenic aerosol effect. Under a future scenario featuring regionally controlled aerosol emissions and substantially increased greenhouse gas concentrations (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-85), our simulations show a potential decrease in TC frequency near Western Europe by the end of the 21st century. These contrasting trends in historical and future TC frequencies are primarily due to the rise for 1966–2020 and potentially subsequent fall for 2030–2100 in TC genesis frequency in the North Atlantic. The response of large-scale environmental conditions to anthropogenic forcing is found to be crucial in explaining the historical and future changes in TC frequency near Western Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of heat wave (HW) is vital for both natural systems and human populations. The Loess Plateau is located in a climate transition zone and is highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, it is crucial to study HW in this region. Based on instrumental measurements, climate model data, atmospheric circulation data and HW metrics, this study comprehensively analyses past and future HW changes in the Loess Plateau and the influencing factors. From 1961 to 2019, the metrics for daytime heat wave(DHW) and nighttime heat wave(NHW) were as follows: duration (9.28/9.72 days), frequency (1.34/1.4 times, mean intensity (6.24/4.69 °C), maximum intensity (7.83/6.05 °C), and cumulative heat (44.45/32.63 °Cd). All metrics displayed an increasing trend (p < 0.05(NHW)). Geographically, the northern Loess Plateau exhibited the highest intensity and cumulative heat, whereas the southern region experienced longer HW. The solar flux index, western Pacific subtropical high area index, and western Pacific subtropical high intensity index were identified as the primary factors influencing HW in the Loess Plateau. By the end of the 21st century, both the duration and cumulative heat of HW are projected to rise significantly. NHW, in particular, will see extended durations and greater cumulative heat compared to DHW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the health-related weighted ultraviolet radiation (UVR) due to the total ozone content (TOC) and the aerosol optical depth (AOD) changes. Clear-sky Ultraviolet Index (UVI), daily doses, and exposure times for erythema induction (Dery and Tery) and vitamin D synthesis (DvitD and TvitD) were computed by a radiative transfer estimator. TOC and AOD data were provided by six Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). For projections, we consider four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios—SSPs (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5)—and two time-slices (near: 2041–2060 and far future: 2081–2100). UVR projections showed pronounced changes for the summer hemispheres in the far future. TOC increases in mid- and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere caused decreases in UVR at the summer solstice. However, projections did not indicate sun-safe exposure conditions in South America, Australia, and Southern Africa. On the contrary, exposure around solar noon from 10 to 20 min will still be sufficient to induce erythema in skin type III individuals throughout this century. In southern Argentina and Chile, the UVR insufficiency for vitamin D synthesis at solar noon in skin type III remains the same during this century at the winter solstice. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI and Dery at the summer solstice should remain high (UVI ≥ 8; Dery ~ 7.0 kJ m−2) in highly populated locations. Above 45 °N, UVR levels cannot be enough to synthesize vitamin D in skin type III during the boreal winter. Our results show that climate change will affect human health through excess or lack of solar UVR availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK has a long history of providing and managing urban parks. The formal park and garden, developed as a morally improving 'place apart' in the city, can inform people's idea of what a park is. This paper aims to explore the legacy of this conceptualisation of the park through an extensive review of literature and policy documents. This paper examines prevailing discourses by locating them more accurately within its political, economic and social context of the times. The paper also examines why, despite being described as 'treasured assets' by national government today, UK urban parks continue to be undervalued and taken for granted? Why does the lamenting of the fate of UK urban parks sector persist in the twenty-first century? To answer this question, the paper will focus on the formal urban park by applying the analytical framework of place-keeping as a conceptualisation of long-term green space management and stewardship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on Southeast Asia's coastlines are acute due to high population densities in low-lying coastal environments. However, the trajectories of TCs are uncertain in a warming climate. Here, we assess >64,000 simulated TCs from the nineteenth century to the end of the twenty-first century for both moderate- and high-emissions scenarios. Results suggest changes to TC trajectories in Southeast Asia, including: (1) poleward shifts in both genesis and peak intensification rates; (2) TC formation and fastest intensification closer to many coastlines; (3) increased likelihoods of TCs moving most slowly over mainland Southeast Asia; and (4) TC tracks persisting longer over land. In the cities of Hai Phong (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand), these variations result in future increases in both peak TC intensity and TC duration compared to historical TCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future socioeconomic climate pathways have regional water-quality consequences whose severity and equity have not yet been fully understood across geographic and economic spectra. We use a process-based, terrestrial-freshwater ecosystem model to project 21st-century river nitrogen loads under these pathways. We find that fertilizer usage is the primary determinant of future river nitrogen loads, changing precipitation and warming have limited impacts, and CO2 fertilization-induced vegetation growth enhancement leads to modest load reductions. Fertilizer applications to produce bioenergy in climate mitigation scenarios cause larger load increases than in the highest emission scenario. Loads generally increase in low-income regions, yet remain stable or decrease in high-income regions where agricultural advances, low food and feed production and waste, and/or well-enforced air pollution policies balance biofuel-associated fertilizer burdens. Consideration of biofuel production options with low fertilizer demand and rapid transfer of agricultural advances from high- to low-income regions may help avoid inequitable water-quality outcomes from climate mitigation. This study suggests consideration of biofuel production options with low fertilizer demand and rapid transfer of agricultural advances from high- to low-income regions that may help avoid inequitable water-quality outcomes from climate mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the third decade of the 21st century, digitization and artificial intelligence, global events, challenges from authoritarian states, and difficulties of particular democracies to function properly confront democracy with a new series of challenges and opportunities that will force it to reinvent itself. The last decades have produced an accelerating flow of ideas for new forms of democracy. We survey a long period in the quest for such new forms and point to next inventions for such forms. We suggest to experiment with new ways for democracy to extend the choice of democratic processes that can be implemented in real-life situations, with the beneficial side-effect that democracy might remain the only sustainable structure for self-governing societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inherent biases in numerical simulation models of global climate models (GCMs) reduce the scope for accurately assessing future droughts under multimodel ensemble. The aim of this research is to increase the efficiency of multimodel ensembles. Consequently, this paper introduces a two-way hybrid weighting scheme for ensembling multiple GCMs. The proposed weighting scheme enhances the coherence of the multimodel ensemble of climate model simulations with real observed data and minimizes the impact of non-identical seasonal behavior in climate simulations within the multimodel ensemble. In the application, we consider precipitation data from 18 GCMs of CMIP6 from the Tibet Plateau region. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme, we compared the proposed ensemble data with simple model averaged (SMA) ensemble using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Furthermore, we assessed the future characteristics of various drought categories using the steady-state probabilities of a Markov Chain. Small values of errors metircs and high correlation indicate that the proposed hybrid weighting scheme exhibits better performance than the SMA. Under the proposed index, the long term probabilities of various drought classe show variations across different time scales of drought. These results provide perspectives on how the the long term probabilities of various drought categories evolve over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persian poetry has profoundly affected all periods of Persian literature and the literature of other countries as well. It is a fundamental vehicle for expressing Persian culture and political opinion. This paper presents a corpus of Persian literary text mainly focusing on poetry, covering the ninth to twenty-first century annotated for century and style, with additional partial annotation of rhetorical figures. Our resource is the largest and the most diverse corpus available in Persian literary text, with a particularly broad temporal scope. This allows us to conduct several computational experiments to analyze poetic styles, authors and time periods, as well as context shifts over time, for which we rely both on supervised models and on Persian poetry-specific heuristics. The corpus, the tools, and experiments described in this paper can be used not only for digital humanities studies of Persian literature but also for processing Persian texts in general, as well as in other broader cross-linguistic applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neurodegenerative diseases (ND) pose significant challenges for biomedicine in the twenty-first century, particularly considering the global demographic ageing and the subsequent increase in their prevalence. Characterized as progressive, chronic and debilitating, they often result in higher mortality rates compared with the general population. Research agendas and biomedical technologies are shaped by power relations, ultimately affecting patient wellbeing and care. Drawing on the concepts of bio- and necropolitics, introduced by philosophers Foucault and Mbembe, respectively, this perspective examines the interplay between the territoriality and governmentality around demographic ageing, ND and death, focussing on knowledge production as a dispositif of power by highlighting the marginal role that the phenomenon of mortality plays in the ND research landscape. We propose a shift into acknowledging the coloniality of knowledge and embracing its situatedness to attain knowledge 'from death', understood as an epistemic position from which novel approaches and practices could emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social scientists have argued that good communication around risks in climate hazards requires information to be presented in a user-relevant way, allowing people to better understand the factors controlling those risks. We present a potentially useful way of doing this by explaining future UK winter precipitation in terms of changes in the frequency, and associated average rainfall, of local pressure patterns that people are familiar with through their use in daily weather forecasts. We apply this approach to a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of coupled HadGEM3-GC3.05 simulations of the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, which formed part of the UK Climate Projections in 2018. The enhanced winter precipitation by 2050–99 is largely due to an increased tendency towards westerly and south-westerly conditions at the expense of northerly/easterly conditions. Daily precipitation is generally more intense, most notably for the south-westerlies. In turn, we show that the changes in the frequency of the pressure patterns are consistent with changes in larger scale drivers of winter circulation and our understanding of how they relate to each other; this should build user confidence in the projections. Across the PPE, these changes in pressure patterns are largely driven by changes in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex; for most members the vortex strengthens over the twenty-first century, some beyond the CMIP6 range. The PPE only explores a fraction of the CMIP6 range of tropical amplification, another key driver. These two factors explain why the PPE is skewed towards exploring the more westerly side of the CMIP6 range, so that the PPE's description of UK winter precipitation changes does not provide a full picture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite ongoing climate change and warming, extreme cold events still negatively affect human society. Since cold air incursions are related to specific circulation patterns, the main aims of this study are (1) to validate how well current EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce these synoptic links and (2) to assess possible future changes in atmospheric circulation conducive to cold events. Using anomalies of daily minimum temperature, we define cold days (CDs) in central Europe and analyse their characteristics over the historical (1979−2020) and future (2070−2099) periods. We classify wintertime atmospheric circulation by applying a novel technique based on Sammon mapping to the state-of-the-art ERA5 reanalysis output. We discover that circulation types (CT) conducive to CDs are characterised by easterly advection and/or clear-sky anticyclonic conditions. While the RCM ensemble generally reproduces these synoptic links relatively well, we observe biases in the occurrence of CDs in individual simulations. These biases can be attributed to inadequately reproduced frequencies of CTs conducive to CDs (primarily propagating from driving data), as well as to deviations in the conduciveness within these CTs (primarily originating in the RCMs). Interestingly, two competing trends are identified for the end of the twenty-first century: (1) most RCMs project an increased frequency of CTs conducive to CDs, suggesting more frequent CDs, while (2) the same CTs are projected to warm faster compared to their counterparts, suggesting weaker CDs. The interplay between these opposing trends contributes to the overall uncertainty surrounding the recurrence and severity of future winter extremes in central Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in extreme precipitation in Northeast China (NEC), a climate-sensitive region, remain unclear with respect to future warming due to regionally unique geographic factors. This study examines how regional extreme precipitation may adapt to future climate change. Using statistical downscaling and the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, we investigate the possible changes in future extreme precipitation for NEC under different warming scenarios and the influencing factors. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events, under different definitions, exhibit a gradual enhancement trend and are more pronounced for the more extreme precipitation definitions. However, in projections of the late twenty-first century, under the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (2015–2100) Shared Socioeconomic Path (SSP)2–4.5 scenario, the growth of extreme precipitation events plateaued as warming slowed. The response of extreme precipitation to temperature changes under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) was approximately linear, with average response rates of 7.29%/°C (6.71%/°C) and 16.84%/°C (17.33%/°C) for number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 20 mm and annual total precipitation of days exceeding the 99th percentile threshold, respectively. The distribution of these indices was more concentrated under SSP5-8.5 scenario. Variations in the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation were significantly correlated with vertical velocity at 500 hPa and were influenced by moisture availability. The predicted increase in extreme precipitation was greater in humid and mountainous regions and precipitation changes were most pronounced at higher latitudes. Our results suggest that future temperatures may increase the risk of extreme precipitation in NEC, posing a challenge for adaptation to changes in precipitation extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canopy openings are increasing in Europe's forests, yet the contributions of anthropogenic and ecological agents of disturbance to this increase remain debated. Here we attribute the root cause of all stand-replacing canopy disturbances identified for Europe in the period 1986–2020 from Landsat data (417,000 km²), distinguishing between planned and unplanned canopy openings (i.e., disturbance by human land use versus by wind, bark beetles, and wildfire). We show that canopy openings by humans dominate the European forest disturbance regime, accounting for 82% of the area disturbed. Both planned and unplanned canopy openings increased in the early 21st century (+24% and +30% relative to the late 20th century). Their changes are linked, with simultaneous increases in planned and unplanned canopy openings on 68% of Europe's forest area. We conclude that an important direction for tackling disturbance change in policy and management is to break the link between planned and unplanned canopy openings in Europe's forests. Forest canopy openings may be caused by planned human intervention or by drivers such as fire, wind disturbance and pest outbreaks. Here, the authors present a high-resolution map and attribution analysis showing that planned and unplanned canopy openings often co-occur in European forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As some of the greatest natural disasters in the cryosphere, ice avalanches (IAs) seriously threaten lives and cause catastrophic damage to the resource environment, but a comprehensive overview of the state of knowledge on IAs remains lacking. We summarized 63 IAs on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) since the 20th century, of which, over 20 IAs occurred after the 21st century. The distributions of IAs are mainly concentrated in the southeastern and northwestern TP, and the occurrence time of IAs is mostly concentrated from July to September. We highlight recent advances in mechanical properties and genetic mechanisms of IAs and emphasize that temperature, rainfall, and seismicity are the inducing factors. The failure modes of IAs are summarized into 6 categories by examples: slip pulling type, slip toppling type, slip breaking type, water level collapse type, cave roof collapse type, and wedge failure type. Finally, we deliver recommendations concerning the risk assessment and prediction of IAs. The results provide important scientific value for addressing climate change and resisting glacier-related hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The book review discusses an anthology titled "Historic preservation theory: an anthology—readings from the 18th to the 21st Century," edited by Jorge Otero-Pailos. The anthology contains 96 texts spanning four centuries and covers various geographies, disciplines, and epochs. It aims to provide students with a wider international and historical perspective on historic preservation theory. The book is organized chronologically, starting from the European Enlightenment, which has raised questions about the inclusivity and diversity of the discipline. The review acknowledges the need for redressing historiographical inequity and calls for a reconstitution of the field of historic preservation to address the challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change and sustainability. [Extracted from the article]

The twenty-first century has seen an increase in stakeholders, highlighting the need to discuss the role of corporate social responsibility in technological innovation. The objective of the current research is to examine the role that corporate social responsibility in technological innovation plays in enhancing the sustainable competitive performance of firms. The idea that digital transformation mediates the relationship between corporate social responsibility in technological innovation and sustainable competitive performance is proposed in this study. Additionally, the mastery climate may act as a boundary condition that strengthens the positive relationship between CSR and digital transformation. The data were collected in Chinese firms through a questionnaire. The results supported the mediation and moderation hypotheses, confirming that digital transformation mediates the relationship between corporate social responsibility in technological innovation and sustainable competitive performance. The mastery climate moderates the relationship between corporate social responsibility in technological innovation and digital transformation. The results have implications for theory and practice. Limitations and future research directions are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review explores the significant advancements in paediatric surgery in Africa during the twenty-first century, with a particular focus on capacity-building, education, infrastructural development, and research. Historically, paediatric surgery has been an overlooked sector, especially in low-and-middle-income countries in Africa. However, recent years have seen considerable progress. Collaborative efforts such as the Global Initiative for Children's Surgery, and the formation of the Pan African Paediatric Surgery Association, the College of Surgeons of East, Central and Southern Africa and the West African College of Surgeons have facilitated knowledge sharing, collaboration, and advocacy for enhancing surgical standards. Local training programmes, including Master of Medicine programmes and fellowships, have been instrumental in building a skilled workforce. These initiatives have been complemented by infrastructural developments through non-governmental organisations like Kids Operating Room, which have expanded access to paediatric surgical care. Technological advancements, particularly in telemedicine, have further enhanced accessibility. Task-sharing strategies, where non-specialist physicians are trained in paediatric surgical skills, have also been utilised to address the shortage of specialised surgeons. Research in paediatric surgery has experienced an upswing, with local health professionals taking the lead. Research has been crucial for understanding the epidemiology of paediatric surgical conditions, and developing prevention strategies, and is increasingly leading to the inclusion of paediatric surgery in national health plans. Despite the progress, challenges remain, including the need for sustainable funding, continued investment in infrastructure, and training and retention of healthcare professionals. The review emphasises the importance of ongoing efforts in community engagement, innovative technologies, and health systems strengthening for the sustainable development of paediatric surgical services in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mercury (Hg), a potent neurotoxin posing risks to human health, is cycled through vegetation uptake, which is susceptible to climate change impacts. However, the extent and pattern of these impacts are largely unknown, obstructing predictions of Hg's fate in terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we evaluate the effects of climate change on vegetation elemental Hg [Hg(0)] uptake using a state-of-the-art global terrestrial Hg model (CLM5-Hg) that incorporates plant physiology. In a business-as-usual scenario, the terrestrial Hg(0) sink is predicted to decrease by 1870 Mg yr−1 in 2100, that is ~60% lower than the present-day condition. We find a potential decoupling between the trends of CO2 assimilation and Hg(0) uptake process by vegetation in the 21st century, caused by the decreased stomatal conductance with increasing CO2. This implies a substantial influx of Hg into aquatic ecosystems, posing an elevated threat that warrants consideration during the evaluation of the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention. The uptake of gaseous elementary mercury by terrestrial vegetation in 2100 is likely to decrease by more than half compared to present-day conditions. This decrease is caused by the reduced stomatal conductance associated with increasing CO2 levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tails of the probability distribution host extremes. The distributions are typically classified into heavy or light-tailed distributions subjected to their tail behavior, out of which the former signifies frequent happenings of extreme events. The present study demonstrates the analysis where the outputs from 13 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used to evaluate changes in the tail behavior of precipitation extremes that will preside over India for the twenty-first century. A straightforward empirical index known as the "obesity index" (OB) is utilized to measure the tail heaviness for each of the 4801 daily precipitation records over India for historical (1970–2019) and future (2020–2100) time periods. The same approach was used to characterize daily precipitation tails in the Indian meteorological subdivisions and across different climate types during various periods. The results highlight that heavy-tailed distributions are well-suited for daily precipitation extremes in India, with OB values above 0.75 observed in nearly all grids for both present and future scenarios. Notably, in the case of the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 585 climate scenario, which is the worst climate scenario, approximately 42.82% of grids exhibit the highest range of OB from 0.85 to 0.9 relative to other SSP scenarios. The findings also show that the largest to smallest heavy tails are associated with major climate types E (polar), B (arid), A (tropical), and C (temperate). Large heavy-tailed extremes are observed in ET, BSh, BWh, and Aw for climate subtypes, while relatively lighter-tailed extremes were observed in Am and Cwb. Furthermore, the variation in the OB is found to be non-linear with the elevation. In climatic zones Aw, BSh, Cwa, and ET, a U-shaped pattern is observed, while in climate zone Cwb, it shows a concave increase. Conversely, curves are convex decreasing for As, BWh, Csa, and convex increasing for zone Am. The conclusions from this study can help policymakers in designing adaptation plans in response to the anticipated effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought events have become increasingly frequent and intensive due to the combined influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities. However, it remains unclear how meteorological drought characteristics (duration, severity, and intensity) respond to the changing environment and what are the dominant factors determining the drought evolution in different climate regions. Here, we divide mainland China into four sub-climatic regions, namely the Humid region (HR), Transition region (TR), Arid region (AR), and Tibetan Plateau (TP), based on the aridity index and geomorphology. Then systematically investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of drought characteristics in different climate regions over China (during 2000–2019) based on the SPEI and run theory. And the contribution of precipitation (Pre) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to drought characteristics are quantitatively analyzed using a detrended numerical experiment method. We find that (1) a pattern of "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" was found in China. (2) Meteorological drought characteristics exhibit apparent regional heterogeneity: droughts in AR are of long duration and high severity, while droughts in HR and TR show a pattern of high frequency. (3) An increase in the annual Pre (PET) resulted in increases (decreases) in average SPEI in China of 45.18% (31.62%). Therefore, Pre is the dominant factor determining the increase of SPEI over China. For the four sub-climatic regions, Pre is the dominant factor in the increase of SPEI in TR and HR, with the contribution of 41.64% and 60.16%. PET is the dominant factor in the decrease of SPEI in AR, with the contribution of 50.11%. The contributions of Pre (45.09%) and PET (44.09%) in TP are roughly equivalent. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in shaping climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. By understanding the leading meteorological factors influencing drought, policymakers can implement effective measures to minimize the influence of disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a severe non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Life expectancy has improved with rituximab, but cause-specific mortality data is lacking. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to study 27,449 individuals aged 20–74 years diagnosed with primary DLBCL who received chemotherapy between 2000 and 2019, we calculated standardized mortality rate (SMR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) and examined the connection between age, sex, time after diagnosis, and cause of death. Based on 12,205 deaths, 68.7% were due to lymphoma, 20.1% non-cancer causes, and 11.2% other cancers. Non-cancer mortality rates (SMR 1.2; EAR, 21.5) increased with DLBCL compared to the general population. The leading non-cancer death causes were cardiovascular (EAR, 22.6; SMR, 1.6) and infectious (EAR, 9.0; SMR, 2.9) diseases with DLBCL. Risks for non-cancer death and solid neoplasms are highest within the first diagnosis year, then decrease. Among socioeconomic factors, being white, being married, and having a higher income were favorable factors for reducing non-cancer mortality. To improve survival, close surveillance, assessment of risk factors, and early intervention are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marsh environments, characterized by their flora and fauna, change laterally in response to shoreline erosion, water levels and inundation, and anthropogenic activities. The Grand Bay coastal system (USA) has undergone multiple large-scale geomorphic and hydrologic changes resulting in altered sediment supply, depositional patterns, and degraded barrier islands, leaving wetland salt marshes vulnerable to increased wave activity. Two shore-perpendicular transect sites, one along a low-activity shoreline and the other in a high activity area of the same bay-marsh complex, were sampled to investigate how the marshes within 50 m of the modern shoreline have responded to different levels of increased wave activity over the past century. Surface sediments graded finer and more organic with increased distance from the shoreline while cores generally exhibited a coarsening upwards grain-size trend; all cores contained multiple large sedimentological shifts. 210Pb-based mass accumulation rates over the last two decades were greater than the long-term (centurial) average at each site with the fastest accumulation rates of 7.81 ± 1.58 and 7.79 ± 1.63 kg/m2/year at the sites nearest the shoreline. A shoreline change analysis of three time-slices (1848–2017, 1957–2017, 2016–2017) shows increased erosion at both sites since 1848 with modern rates of −0.95 and −0.88 m/year. Downcore sedimentology, mass accumulation rates, and shoreline change rates paired with foraminiferal biofacies and identification of local estuarine indicator species, Paratrochammina simplissima, aided in identifying paleo marsh types, their relative proximity to the shoreline, and sediment provenance. The high-energy marsh site transitioned from middle marsh to low marsh in the 1960s, and the low-energy marsh site transitioned later, at the end of the twentieth and early twenty-first century, due to its more protected location. Marsh type transition corresponds chronologically with the coarsening upwards grain-size trend observed and the degradation of Grand Batture Island; since its submergence, signatures of multiple storm event have been preserved downcore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cigarette smoking is positively and robustly associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), including hypertension, atherosclerosis, cardiac arrhythmias, stroke, thromboembolism, myocardial infarctions, and heart failure. However, after more than a decade of ENDS presence in the U.S. marketplace, uncertainty persists regarding the long-term health consequences of ENDS use for CVD. New approach methods (NAMs) in the field of toxicology are being developed to enhance rapid prediction of human health hazards. Recent technical advances can now consider impact of biological factors such as sex and race/ethnicity, permitting application of NAMs findings to health equity and environmental justice issues. This has been the case for hazard assessments of drugs and environmental chemicals in areas such as cardiovascular, respiratory, and developmental toxicity. Despite these advances, a shortage of widely accepted methodologies to predict the impact of ENDS use on human health slows the application of regulatory oversight and the protection of public health. Minimizing the time between the emergence of risk (e.g., ENDS use) and the administration of well-founded regulatory policy requires thoughtful consideration of the currently available sources of data, their applicability to the prediction of health outcomes, and whether these available data streams are enough to support an actionable decision. This challenge forms the basis of this white paper on how best to reveal potential toxicities of ENDS use in the human cardiovascular system—a primary target of conventional tobacco smoking. We identify current approaches used to evaluate the impacts of tobacco on cardiovascular health, in particular emerging techniques that replace, reduce, and refine slower and more costly animal models with NAMs platforms that can be applied to tobacco regulatory science. The limitations of these emerging platforms are addressed, and systems biology approaches to close the knowledge gap between traditional models and NAMs are proposed. It is hoped that these suggestions and their adoption within the greater scientific community will result in fresh data streams that will support and enhance the scientific evaluation and subsequent decision-making of tobacco regulatory agencies worldwide. Models for Cardiovascular Toxicity Testing E-cigarettes and nicotine delivery systems can be examined using multiple model systems. In silico models might predict adverse cardiovascular effects that can be screened for using 2-D and 3-D models using induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) derived cardiac tissue and "omics" profiling such as single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) or high-throughput functional analysis with a multiple electrode array (MEA). Biologic plausibility of detected effects can be corroborated using ex vivo or in vivo models, which may also lead to the discovery of new biomarkers or treatments for CVD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In honor of its 50th anniversary, the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) held its XXV World Conference in Paris. The conference provided a venue for reviewing earlier developments and reevaluating prospective directions in the futures field. Scientific-based futures studies has a long history, drawing from a variety of fields including sociology, policy sciences, philosophy of science, economic prognostics, and environmental sustainability. Futures studies became widely acknowledged as an academic discipline in the 1960s when it became evident in the global scientific community. The 1970s saw a focus on global challenges and discussions about preferred futures. The synthesis of futures studies emerged in the 1980s and 1990s, with critical and evolutionary approaches contributing to the advancement of theoretical foundations. The twenty-first century focuses on anticipation and futures literacy, the development of post-normal, metamodern, and integral approaches, and the attainment of foresight in common practice. Future research is expected to focus on various aspects, including artificial general intelligence (AGI), socio-technical transitions, singularity, sustainability, societal collapses, entrepreneurial innovation, energy futures, decolonization, negation and post-prefix notions, systemic foresight, applied foresight, and on-site foresight. Future research activities are expected to also include research objects, policy challenges, and problems that do not yet exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays Road traffic is a major issue in developing and under-developing countries. With the rampant increase in traffic, society faces major traffic threats including life threats and environmental threats, thus traffic management is a gruesome problem to address. The consequences of poor traffic management include road accidents, jamming traffic, pollution, and many more that can be life-threatening. Living in the twenty-first century with the emergence of technology and the applicability of smart cities provides a perfect solution to curb traffic issues. Keeping in view the deadlock and congestion in traffic, this work will provides solution by indigently detecting and prioritizing vehicles and non-vehicles. The research involves the implementation and comparison of two states of art algorithms Aggregated channel feature and a Point Tracker. Further, the algorithms are enhanced by improving traffic management in terms of identifying the category of transport, prioritizing the traffic which contains vehicles and non-vehicles on basis of the size of vehicle, type of the vehicle, and emergency providing priority to resolve the deadlock. Further, the proposed enhanced point tracker algorithm includes emergency detection in case of an accident and provides an alternative route to neighboring vehicles and non-vehicles. Enhanced ACF has detected a true positive rate of 80%, 89%, has detected true positive rates of 69%, and 79% having non-vehicle detected with assigned priority. Enhanced point tracker has detected true positive rate of 88%, 94%, and 86% having vehicles, non-vehicles, and assigned priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The natural fluxes of CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere from the territory of Russia in the 21st century have been analyzed using the results of simulations with the ensemble of global climate models of the international CMIP6 project. Estimates of natural CO2 fluxes in Russian regions differ greatly for different models. Their values for the beginning of the 21st century range from –1 to 1 GtC/year. In the 21st century, the differences in model estimates of fluxes are growing, and, at the end of the 21st century, in the scenario with the largest anthropogenic impacts, SSP5-8.5 range from –2.5 to 2.5 GtC/year. Estimates of natural methane emissions to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia also differ greatly for different models. Modern methane emissions are estimated in the range from 10 to 35 MtCH4/year, with an increase in the 21st century of up to 300%. Ensemble model simulations show general trends for changes in natural greenhouse gas fluxes. Most CMIP6 models are characterized by a maximum of CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems and its further reduction by the end of the 21st century, while natural methane emissions to the atmosphere for all models and scenarios of anthropogenic impacts grow throughout the 21st century. The cumulative temperature potential of natural CO2 fluxes on the territory of Russia in the 21st century is estimated, depending on the scenario of anthropogenic impacts, to be from –0.3 to 0.1 K, and the accelerating warming impact of natural CH4 emissions is estimated in the range of 0.03–0.09 K. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on simulations with an ensemble of CMIP6 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, phase 6) climate models using Bayesian averaging, an analysis of changes in the runoff of a number of Russian rivers—the Volga, Ob, Yenisei, Lena, Amur, and Selenga—has been carried out this century. Bayesian weights take into account the skill of runoff reproduction by models (long-term average runoff, linear runoff trend over a time interval with available runoff observations, and interannual and interdecadal variability). The skill of reproduction of runoff characteristics by individual CMIP6 ensemble models varies most widely for long-term average runoff; runoff trend; and, to a lesser extent, interannual variability. In the 21st century, the ensemble average runoff increases for most of the analyzed rivers, with the exception of the Volga. This increase is more pronounced in scenarios with large anthropogenic impacts. It is especially significant for the SSP5-8.5 scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 14 5-8.5), in which the trend of increase in runoff in 2015–2100 relative to its modern long-term average value is (10 ± 4)% for the Ob, (16 ± 3)% for the Yenisei, (39 ± 7)% for the Lena, (36 ± 7)% for the Amur, and (18 ± 6)% for the Selenga. The main reason for changes in ensemble average runoff in the 21st century in models under all SSP scenarios is the changes in precipitation. Accounting for differences in model skill when reproducing river runoff on average for 2015–2100 reduces intermodel deviations relative to the corresponding values when uniformly weighting the model calculation results by 6–26%, depending on the SSP scenario and river catchment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To adapt to Earth's rapidly changing climate, detailed modelling of thermal stress is needed. Dangerous stress levels are becoming more frequent, longer, and more severe. While traditional measurements of thermal stress have focused on air temperature and humidity, modern measures including radiation and wind speed are becoming widespread. However, projecting such indices has presented a challenging problem, due to the need for appropriate bias correction of multiple variables that vary on hourly timescales. In this paper, we aim to provide a detailed understanding of changing thermal stress patterns incorporating modern measurements, bias correction techniques, and hourly projections to assess the impact of climate change on thermal stress at human scales. To achieve these aims, we conduct a case study of projected thermal stress in central Hobart, Australia for 2040–2059, compared to the historical period 1990–2005. We present the first hourly metre-scale projections of thermal stress driven by multivariate bias-corrected data. We bias correct four variables from six dynamically downscaled General Circulation Models. These outputs drive the Solar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry model at metre scale, calculating mean radiant temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index. We demonstrate that multivariate bias correction can correct means on multiple time scales while accurately preserving mean seasonal trends. Changes in mean air temperature and UTCI by hour of the day and month of the year reveal diurnal and annual patterns in both temporal trends and model agreement. We present plots of future median stress values in the context of historical percentiles, revealing trends and patterns not evident in mean data. Our modelling illustrates a future Hobart that experiences higher and more consistent numbers of hours of heat stress arriving earlier in the year and extending further throughout the day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hot droughts, droughts attributed to below-average precipitation and exceptional warmth, are increasingly common in the twenty-first century, yet little is known about their effect on coniferous tree growth because of their historical rarity. In much of the American West, including California, radial tree growth is principally driven by precipitation, and narrow ring widths are typically associated with either drier or drought conditions. However, for species growing at high elevations (e.g., Larix lyalli, Pinus albicaulis), growth can be closely aligned with above-average temperatures with maximum growth coinciding with meteorological drought, suggesting that the growth effects of drought span from adverse to beneficial depending on location. Here, we compare radial growth responses of three high-elevation old-growth pines (Pinus jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, and P. contorta) growing in the San Jacinto Mountains, California, during a twenty-first-century hot drought (2000–2020) largely caused by exceptional warmth and a twentieth-century drought (1959–1966) principally driven by precipitation deficits. Mean radial growth during the hot drought was 12% above average while 18% below average during the mid-century drought illustrating that the consequences of environmental stress exhibit spatiotemporal variability. We conclude that the effects of hot droughts on tree growth in high-elevation forests may produce responses different than what is commonly associated with extended dry periods for much of western North America's forested lands at lower elevational ranges and likely applies to other mountainous regions (e.g., Mediterranean Europe) defined by summer-dry conditions. Thus, the climatological/biological interactions discovered in Southern California may offer clues to the unique nature of high-elevation forested ecosystems globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia has a dry climate, scarce water resources, extremely fragile ecosystems, and frequent extreme precipitation events. Using the data of 22 global climate models in the CMIP6 plan, the trend of the extreme precipitation index under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was estimated by calculating eight extreme precipitation indices in Central Asia and optimizing the best multi-model set using the Taylor evaluation and comprehensive score. The results showed that in Central Asia, the CMIP6 mode and multi-mode collection can reasonably reproduce the regional differences of various severe precipitation indices. However, these results only performed well for consecutive dry days (CDD) and annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), but poorly for the replication of extreme high- and low-value regions. We found that the simulation effect of the multi-mode ensemble results was better than that of a single mode, and that CMIP6 can roughly depict the evolving characteristics of extreme precipitation events. However, the CMIP6 data performed poorly in terms of spatial divergence ability characteristics. According to the estimated results, mountainous regions have experienced considerable changes, and a significant increase in the range of change was observed for severe precipitation (consecutive wet days (CWD), single day maximum precipitation (Rx1day), and PRCPTOT) in wet and dry regions during the twenty-first century. Simultaneously, the humidification trend accelerated after 2050, and four shared socioeconomic paths showed similar trends; however, the extreme precipitation rate was higher under the high forcing path. Consecutive dry days (CDD) in Central Asia decreased by 90% under SSP5-8.5 relative to SSP1-2.6, whereas CWD, Rx1day, and PRCPTOT increased by 20%, 150%, and 118%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of climate reanalysis data for land (ECMWF Re-Analysis v5; ERA5-Land) covering the last seven decades reveals regions where extreme daily mean temperatures are rising faster than the average rate of temperature rise of the 6 months of highest background warmth. However, such extreme temperature acceleration is very heterogeneous, occurring only in some places including regions of Europe, the western part of North America, parts of southeast Asia and much of South America. An ensemble average of Earth System Models (ESMs) over the same period also shows acceleration across land areas, but this enhancement is much more spatially uniform in the models than it is for ERA5-Land. Examination of projections from now to the end of the 21st Century, with ESMs driven by the highest emissions Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenario (SSP585) of future changes to atmospheric greenhouse gases, also reveals larger warming during extreme days for most land areas. The increase in high-temperature extremes is driven by different processes depending on location. In northern mid-latitudes, a key driver is often a decrease in the evaporative fraction of the available energy, consistent with soil drying. By contrast, the acceleration of high-temperature extremes in tropical Africa is primarily due to increased available energy. These two drivers combine via the surface energy balance to equal the sensible heat flux, which we find is often strongly correlated with the areas where the acceleration of high-temperature extremes is largest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collaborative problem-solving competence (CPSC) is a core skill in the twenty-first century. As an innovative literacy, CPSC was assessed for the first time in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2015. Our study aims to identify the effects of student's perceptions toward interpersonal relationships on CPSC in PISA 2015. Multiple linear regression was used to examine these effects across Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and the four affluent communities in China. After controlling student's gender and socio-economic status, the results indicated that: (a) Student's external perceptions such as teacher unfairness and disciplinary climate, and student's internal perceptions such as valuing relationships and valuing teamwork significantly predicted CPSC; (b) Disciplinary climate was the strongest predictor among all the external perceptions analyzed; (c) Regarding the internal perceptions, valuing relationships positively predicted CPSC, while valuing teamwork negatively predicted CPSC. These findings enlighten educational practitioners to help students develop their CPSC from the perspective of interpersonal relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During times of crisis, including pandemics, climate change, and forced migration, much of the discourse in ageing research and intervention centers on the vulnerabilities of older adults. Unfortunately, the valuable contributions of older adults to post-disaster recovery and healing are often overlooked and undervalued. Our aim in this scoping review is to shed light on the critical contributions of older forced migrants to post-migration recovery. We set the scene by introducing the two significant global demographic changes of the twenty-first century: forced migration and ageing. We provide a discourse on older forced migrants, ageing in situations of forced migration, and some of the challenges faced by older forced migrants. We then present some of the substantial roles of older forced migrants in post-migration recovery, including building resilience, contributing to culture and language transfer, providing emotional support, offering mentorship and leadership, participating in community building, and fostering social integration. We close by highlighting some of the lessons that can be drawn from understanding the unique roles played by older adults in post-forced migration recovery and the key actions necessary to promote these roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial cover objects, made of various materials, have been used for decades for reptile and amphibian surveys, as well as in habitat restoration programs. Their low cost and maintenance demands make them a cost effective and efficient survey method. Since flipping covers does not require special skills, and covers can be uniform in size and material, they can be used as a standardized survey method to negate observer biases. We surveyed the literature in search of studies describing the use of artificial cover objects in situ as part of surveys or habitat restoration efforts of reptiles and amphibians in the twenty-first century. We found 490 studies conducted in 31 countries. Our results show that artificial cover objects are an effective method to sample reptiles and amphibians in terms of both labor and cost. Overall, artificial cover objects used in the studies we surveyed enabled the detection of 357 species belonging to 47 families. Only one study reported animal mortality caused by artificial covers and it also suggested a way to prevent it. No other studies reported direct or indirect injuries or deaths caused by artificial covers. We discuss the efficacy of artificial cover objects in surveying for reptiles and amphibians, and examine their effectiveness when used as part of habitat restoration programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis of the community of rodents and insectivores in five biotopes of the southern forest steppe of Northern Kulunda has been carried out. High biodiversity is typical for the coastal strip with dense herbage near the lake, and low biodiversity is typical for the feather grass–forb steppe. At the beginning of the 21st century, there was a change in dominants of the community of small mammals, and the species richness increased. Of the five shrew species, only the common, tundra, and Eurasian pygmy shrews inhabit all biotopes. Their total proportion in each biotope varied between 16 to 38%. Among the 11 rodent species, the narrow-headed vole is the dominant species. Its total proportion in the community of small mammals was 38.3%. This species is characterized by a peculiar cycle of abundance. The reduction of steppe habitats has led to a decrease in the number of steppe lemming and a change in its population cycle. The proportion of other rodent species in the community of small mammals is low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Re-reading the risk literature, I sketch a novel nomenclature for 36 dyadic risk interactions that constitute the prototypes of what eventually become cascading effects. This analysis demonstrates where cascading risk effects originate and also hints at how they get their enormous power. Risk dyads derive from basic first-order interactions across six disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, ecological impact, and health adversity. I give brief examples of each and provide a short case description of six of the most prominent dyads. Very few of these dyads have an existing shorthand. The exception is NaTech, which denotes natural disasters being amplified by, or amplifying industrial risk, or now more broadly, sci-tech-derived risk. By generalizing the NaTech-style nomenclature across domains, I aim to provide the basic building blocks for a precise understanding of contemporary risk mechanics. This step is often skipped by avid complexity scholars intent on first describing system-wide features. Yet, dyadic analysis is an important prerequisite for systemic understanding of complex cascading effects that depend on triadic or tetradic risk relationships. In reality, even if systemic, and existential risks, as they emerge in the twenty-first century, depend on a myriad of cascading effects, they cannot be fully understood simply by looking at the whole system and attempting to analytically ignore its constituent parts claiming to gain a better overview. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]