Search

This paper examines the shifting landscape of higher education in Turkey, highlighting a disconcerting trend of politically motivated appointments, coined as "parasailing." Departing from traditional merit-based norms, this practice of appointing professors without necessary approvals disrupts the academic environment, prompting concerns about the integrity of higher education institutions. The paper introduces the term "parasailing" to elucidate this phenomenon, emphasizing the connection between the appointed professor and their academic destination. In contrast to the widely used term "parachuting," in Turkish academia the proposed terminology offers a better understanding of the appointment process. The subsequent sections provide an overview of the Turkish academic landscape, explore the origin of the term "parachuting," review existing literature, define "parasailing," and connect it to different philosophical thoughts. Overall, this paper contributes to a broader comprehension of the challenges facing Turkish higher education, urging a reconsideration of appointment procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In December of 2019, a new disease which is caused by SARS-CoV-2, as an epidemic disease out of Wuhan, China, began to circulate. On March 11, 2020, the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Health had announced the first case from Turkey. The aim of this study is to analyze the scientific publications in the field of COVID-19 included in Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE) from Turkey and to establish a theoretical background for future studies in the health literature with obtained valuable information about the publications. We searched all papers published in the field of COVID-19 by using the terms of "COVID-19," "2019-n-CoV," "SARS-CoV-2," "Coronavirus disease 19," and "2019 novel coronavirus" as scientific nomenclatures of COVID-19 in the topic search section of the software. Results: Overall, 47,368 papers, indexed by SCI-E, were found related to COVID-19 between January 1, 2020, and December 13, 2020. Of these, 931 were from Turkey. In terms of specialities, the most contribution was from the Medicine General Internal followed by Dermatology. Most of the publications were article. English was the most preferred language in papers. Dermatological Theraphy published the most paper. Conclusions: Applying this kind of analysis on an intermittent basis gives a general perspective for contribution of a countries to scientific publications and useful for the further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Soft Computing technique is one of the essential problems solving techniques for the researchers present in the world. Compared to other issues solving techniques, the Soft Computing domain gives outstanding performance, so the researchers are concentrating the Soft Computing domain for solving problems. Soft Computing domain categorizes into many sub-domains, like Neural Networks, Machine Learning, and Genetic Algorithm. Through this paper, we considered to study the impact produced by the Institutions as well as authors in the domain of Soft Computing from the year 1999 to 2019 for PubMed database. From the overall study, we found that China has made more number of publications, author productivity, and influential authors. Some countries, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, with minimum author productivity and minimum publications from the Asian continent in the Soft Computing-related domains. From the research, we determined that china dominates in terms of Institutions wise and Author productivity in the field of Soft Computing domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 pandemic negatively affected many sectors including aviation and travel. Travel bans and forced lockdowns prevented transportation activity, especially air travel. Accordingly, huge amounts of emission reductions occurred. On the other hand, travel restrictions are not the only cause of emissions reductions. Changing travel intention in the era of Covid-19 is another important factor that affects aviation emissions. This paper aims to investigate the Landing/Take-Off (LTO) emission changes at Turkish airports. An emission inventory has been implemented for the years 2019 and 2020 to reveal the impacts of Covid-19 on aviation emissions. Domestic, international, and cargo flights have been included in the inventory. According to the results, total emissions of SO2, CO2, CO, NOx, NMVOC, CH4, N2O, and PM2.5 have decreased in 2020 compared to 2019 by 49.8%, 49.7%, 41.0%, 52.6%, 40.0%, 33.8%, 49.8%, and 50.3%, respectively. Total CO2 reductions in the Q2, Q3, and Q4 periods of 2020 compared to that of 2019 are 87%, 50% and 43%, respectively. Another aim of this paper is to find the underlying reasons for emission reductions. For Turkish airports, emission reductions have resulted from travel bans in Q2. After the relaxation of restrictions with the declaration of the "New Normal" in Turkey, flight traffic rebounded to a certain level but was lower than 2019 levels. Therefore, changing travel intention is the main cause of emission reductions in Q3 and Q4 of 2020. The results of this study contribute to both the areas of air pollution and tourism management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is focused on study of the geomagnetic field variation response caused by a series of earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw = 7.5–7.8 in Turkey on February 6, 2023. The initial data include high-precision observations of the geomagnetic field with a one-second sampling rate recorded at magnetic observatories in Russia and neighboring countries from middle to high latitudes. The paper analyzes the morphology of the geomagnetic signal, its amplitude-frequency characteristics, pulses in the rate of change and delays of the geomagnetic field response to earthquakes with magnitudes Mw = 7–8 depending on the distance to the source. The results suggest that the geomagnetic effect is detected best in the rate of change recordings, reaching anomalous amplitudes of 10 nT/s. The signal delay ranges from 221 to 592 s depending on the magnetic field component and the distance to the epicenter, which is in the range from 765 to 2650 km for the selected observatories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In designing control systems, it is known that fractional-order proportional integral derivative (FOPID) controllers often provide greater flexibility than conventional proportional integral derivative (PID) controllers. This higher level of flexibility has proven to be extremely valuable for various applications such as vibration suppression in structural engineering. In this paper, we study the optimization of FOPID controllers using twelve well-established algorithms to minimize structural responses under seismic excitations. The algorithms include crystal structure algorithm (CryStAl), stochastic paint optimizer, particle swarm optimization, krill herd, harmony search, ant colony optimization, genetic algorithm, grey wolf optimizer, Harris hawks optimization, sparrow search algorithm, hippopotamus optimization algorithm, and duck swarm algorithm. In addition to highlighting the benefits of fractional calculus in structural control, this study provides a detailed analysis of FOPID controllers as well as a brief description of the algorithms used to optimize them. To evaluate the efficiency of the proposed techniques, two building models with different numbers of stories are examined. FOPID controllers are designed based on oustaloup's approximation and the El Centro earthquake data. Using five well-known metrics, the performances of the developed methods are evaluated against five earthquake scenarios, including the recent earthquake in Turkey. A non-parametric (Friedman) test is also employed to compare the algorithms based on their corresponding vibration reduction. The findings of this analysis show that CryStAl consistently performs better than the other algorithms for both building models, thus resulting in superior vibration suppression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides new insights into the growth-maximizing size of government in Turkey. Unlike previous studies that traditionally use the share of government spending in GDP as a proxy variable of government size, in this paper we consider a fairly large number of proxy variables ranging from the share of tax revenues in GDP to the share of public investment in total investment. After reviewing the potential non-linear relationship between government size and growth, we estimate various thresholds for government size that maximize growth. To this end, we use the threshold autoregressive model proposed by Hansen (1996: 413-430; 2000: 575-603)) and apply it to Turkey's annual time-series data for the period from 1974 to 2019. Overall, we arrive at the following main result: Government size is non-linearly related to growth, confirming the existence of a growth-maximizing threshold for any measure of government size, beyond which growth tends to slow down as government size continues to increase. More precisely, the results show that the estimated thresholds for government size lie within the range of 4.28–15.19%, depending on the definition or proxy variable representing government size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of Covid-19 pandemic crisis on rates of return is analyzed in this paper in the light of possible data manipulation related to reporting systems provided by the administration in the USA, Turkey and Poland. The study used various methods of analyzing the relationship of a discrete, non-discrete and dichotomous data nature between the studied variables. As a result, the strongest reaction of the market was observed in Turkey followed by the USA and Poland. It can be concluded that the reaction of the surveyed markets was influenced by the data manipulations. The added value of the article is related to the use of various methods to study phenomena and detect the impact of data manipulation on the markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, logistics is one of the most important tools in disaster relief operations. The logistic planning is essential and a key component in covering the initial needs in the immediate aftermath of any disaster. Planning is both necessary and practical, as it is generally possible to predict the types of disasters that should affect a given location and the needs that such disasters will be likely to cause. Transport planning, reception and distribution of emergency supplies, type and quantity of the resources, the way of procurement and storage of the supplies, the tools of the tracking and means transportation to the stricken area, the specialization of teams participating in the operation and plan of cooperation between these teams, are some vital life-saving coordination roles after natural disasters are connected directly to logistic planning. Turkey is located in one of the most active earthquake and volcanic regions which causes to many major earthquake-prone, in the world with a majority of the population living in these earthquake-prone areas. Earthquakes are one of the major disasters that require emergency logistic planning strategies due to their devastating effects, the large-scale natural disasters could cause major problem on commodities such as food, medicine etc. In this paper, a game theoretical model for emergency logistic planning is developed. To do this a cooperative game model is constructed from a flow problem which occurred after an earthquake in Istanbul. Several solution concepts for maximizing the transferred commodity are given. The paper ends with a conclusion and outlook to future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The organic agricultural production system is considered to be the best alternative to the conventional system in order to solve agricultural externality problems. The adoption of such systems provide environmental, social, and financial benefits to the related communities. The related community may receive economic benefits although they might not recognize those benefits. The current paper examines prospective organic wheat production's positive impacts on Turkish economy. This research seeks to find the optimal cultivated land requirement to be allocated for organic wheat production, and contributes to the available literature by measuring environmental and social effects using the proxy values of regular wheat production in the country. Results dictate that the social optimum amount of conventional wheat production must be 1.3 million hectares. If the annual negative externality of wheat production, which is 227.5 USD/ha, is taken into account, the total annual external cost would be 1,416,061,536 USD/year. The importance of conversion and superiority of organic farming are stressed in the literature only at the micro-level or farm-level rather than the macroeconomic level. Macroeconomic results examined in the current paper complete micro-level studies in the context of agricultural externalities. The study indicates that macroeconomic efficiency of organic production is higher than the conventional system. However, it is suggested that a mild transition path be implemented for better land conversion in developing countries such as Turkey. The system of good agricultural practices may have some advantages for this path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Load profile coefficients (LPCs) represent the pattern of electricity usage daily and yearly for electrical energy consumers. It is important to determine the LPCs accurately and reliably, in order to minimize the imbalance costs in the Electricity Energy Market. Reliable methods and sufficient measurement data are required to make accurate forecasts. The local distribution company (TLDC) already calculates the profile coefficients by taking the average of the consumptions without meteorological measurements in Turkey. TLDC determines the LPC by receiving hourly consumption data directly from the consumers. In this paper, the mathematical forecasting models (MFMs) have been produced for determining LPC Duzce in Turkey using the multiple regression analysis method for the first time. Firstly, hourly electrical energy consumption and meteorological temperatures were measured in some predetermined residential subscribers. The MFMs have been produced by using the measured data, and then, LPCs have been determined by using the MFMs. The electrical energy consumptions have been estimated using the determined LPCs, and the estimation results have been compared with the measurement data. The MFMs have been subjected to suitability tests accepted in the literature, and the performances of the models have been verified. According to the results obtained, it has been seen that the MFMs can estimate loads with an accuracy of up to 96% depending on the future changing meteorological conditions, and it has been proposed as a quick and practical method for LPCs calculation. The paper shows that the produced MFMs provide obtaining satisfactory results for energy consumption forecasting for Duzce in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The p resent research paper aims to investigate the relations between "power" and "places". It tried to find out the ethnic construct of place identity and its attachment to the sense of power. It analyses the questions as, How the ethnic identity of social groups constructs the meaning of "place" and transformed themselves into ethnic places? How do the "places" intervene in the identity of "selves"? This research undertakes Kurdish identity and their imbibed notion in order to contextualize the 'ethnic place' and questions of "selves". In this connection, it studies the ethnic places as the phenomenological product of ethnic and social experiences. It discusses ethnic places and their sense of power within the framework of place identity. The central theme of this paper is the Kurdish identity of Turkey to be placed in the spatial adjustment to which they belong. The image of Kurdistan as a place seems to empower them and ultimately causes their sense of security. The method of research is purely theoretical and descriptive on the bases of spatial-analytic approaches. However, in this research, phenomenological analysis of the concepts of place and experiences are argued with relation to power, place and ethnic identity. The phenomenological experiences of community behavior have been seen with respect to their cognitive relations to the living environment of the Kurdish group. Generally, this study is based on secondary sources and archival materials. A case study of Kurdish ethnic identity assertion is seen with respect to the theoretical applicability of place, power, and security concepts. It analyses Turkish Kurds and their identity assertion in the context of demand for the place, associated with the "power" as well as their cognitive environment and sense of belongingness. Ethnic place emerges in "relative isolation" as ethnic selves differing from other-selves. Hence, the demand for the place by the Kurdish group in Turkey is seen as a preservation of ethnic places to be empowered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The income inequality-economy link has been argued by researchers a long time. But the impact of income inequality on environmental pollution is a new investigation topic for developing countries. Turkey is well known as an emerging economy which has a high level of income inequality and CO2 emissions. Therefore, this paper concentrates on the income inequality-CO2 emissions link in Turkish economy by applying a nonlinear analysis. This paper integrates economic growth and financial development to the CO2 emissions specification over the period of 1987–2019. We employ the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach to explore the long-run nonlinear linkages between the series. Our findings reveal an asymmetric cointegration among variables. Positive and negative income inequality shocks positively affect CO2 emissions implying that positive and negative shocks of income inequality enhance CO2 emissions in the long run. Negative economic growth shocks decrease CO2 emissions, while positive shocks to financial development increase CO2 emissions in the long run. We provide important policy suggestions that might be useful to the policymakers to decrease CO2 emissions in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even if families in migration contexts have been the subject of an increasing amount of attention in migration research in the recent years, there is a noticeable knowledge deficit with regard to current parenting practices and socialization goals of immigrant families living in Germany. This is particularly striking since child-rearing is of central importance for children's development and their educational pathways. This paper seeks to fill this gap, drawing on the survey "Growing up in Germany: Everyday Life" (AID:A) provided by the German Youth Institute (DJI). Similarities and differences in attitudes towards parenting among immigrant mothers compared to mothers without migration backgrounds were analyzed with regard to parenting practices (emotional warmth, punishment and child's active participation) and socialization goals (performance/self-control and positive social behavior). In a sample of 5870 mothers reporting on a child under the age of nine, mothers in families where both they and the father had Turkey, Russia or Poland as their country of origin were included and compared to autochthonic families. The results revealed significant differences in parenting practices and socialization goals between mothers with and without migration backgrounds. Concerning parenting practices, Turkish and Russian mothers differed significantly from German mothers with regard to emotional warmth and punishment. In terms of socialization goals, all immigrant mothers placed more emphasis on both performance/self-control, as well as positive social behavior for their children than mothers without migration backgrounds in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the first example of how to systematically identify the submarine landslide source of a tsunami using an innovative hybrid approach. This ground-breaking method is developed to resolve the puzzle around the source mechanism of the mysterious tsunami observed on 6th February 2023 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The tsunami followed the two inland Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.5 Türkiye–Syria earthquakes, which occurred consequently with a 9 h interval on this day. The first earthquake (Mw 7.8) had an epicentral distance of 90 km from the nearest coast, which is closer than the second one (Mw 7.5) to the coast and yet its crustal deformation was almost entirely limited to inland. Therefore, the co-seismic surface displacement generated by the earthquake was ruled out as the source of the tsunami, confirmed by numerical modelling. Here, we hypothesized that the tsunami was most likely generated by a submarine landslide triggered by the earthquake. Analysis of tide gauge observations revealed that the waves arrived from 27 min to 48 min after the first earthquake (Mw 7.8) at different coastal locations, implying that the potential submarine landslide was triggered by the first earthquake (Mw 7.8). Backward tsunami travel time mapping using tide gauge observations guided us to constrain the area of the potential landslide. We approximated the dimensions of the landslide using spectral analysis of the tsunami observations. Consequently, an iterative trial-and-error approach was employed to confirm the landslide source of the tsunami by defining various informed alternative landslide scenarios and applying numerical modeling. Modelling showed that a submarine landslide can reproduce the tsunami observations reasonably well. It is located on a steep slope of the seafloor approximately 50 km from Arsuz. The submarine landslide is estimated to have caused a seafloor deformation measuring approximately 16 km in length and 4.0 km in width. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a micro dataset from labour force survey of Turkey and employing a multinomial logistic regression, this paper examines the determinants of mere overeducation, mere field of study mismatch and full-mismatch (who are both overeducated and field of study mismatched simultaneously). The target group consists of full-time wage-based employees who graduated from higher education and are aged 20–65. The determinants of mismatch are analysed under four variable groups which are labour market context, demography, field of study and job-specific characteristics. In line with the earlier empirical evidence, we find that the unfavourable economic conditions at the time of entry into the labour market might affect the behavioural pattern of individuals while searching for a matching job. Moreover, the sharp increase in university graduates increased further the fierce competition for the limited jobs available in the labour market, and resulted in a high likelihood of mismatch especially for the recent graduates. In sum, the estimation results yield that any mismatch category is responsive to those determinants where fully-mismatched employees are more responsive. Hence, we propose that the policy implications should better focus on the full-mismatch category. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Road-traffic-based air pollution accounts for one-third of the air pollution problem in Turkey. In order to combat this environmental issue and illustrate the possible direction of the road transport policy, five scenarios of withdrawing older vehicles from the fleet are analyzed using cost–benefit analysis (CBA) for 2020–2030. This article focuses on CBA's economic dimension, while the cost of carbon and health costs are included to capture the integrated societal CBA. The economic net benefit is calculated based on tax revenues and foreign trade of major road transport factors such as fuel, vehicles, and scrap metal. The findings indicate that all alternative scenarios compared to the business-as-usual scenario result in a higher net benefit, ranging from 69 to 274 billion PPP US $, and justify implementing road-transport policies consistent with sustainable development goals to combat air pollution and ensure human health. This paper provides extensive evidence that vehicle fleet renewal is beneficial from economic, environmental, and public health perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cappadocia in Turkey is an important region with emphasis on ethnic and historic structures and geological features. Because of volcanic eruptions, ash flow materials deposited at different levels. These different colored ignimbrite levels have a wide range of geomechanical properties. In the region, the Kızılkaya ignimbrite covers a very large area and is frequently used as building dimension stone in for the restoration of old historical buildings such as churches, caravansaries and mosques as well as new buildings. It contains tuffaceous matrix with some minerals and rock fragments. The rock has variable character. In this study, the relationship between petrographic and physico-mechanical properties of the Kızılkaya ignimbrite was investigated. Rate of change between uniaxial compressive strength and the other index properties of the rock was statistically examined utilizing multiple regression analysis (MRA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods. The study has shown that uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of the ignimbrite can be successfully estimated by the use of dry unit weight, effective porosity, sonic velocity, and grain matrix ratio (GMR) parameters. A new UCS prediction equation is proposed in this paper for the ignimbrite with variable character. Since properties of the ignimbrite at different distances from the eruption area changes significantly, the approach presented in this study can be considered for the ignimbrites especially covering a large area with different welding degrees and grains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have some implications on land–atmosphere interactions, surface energy budget, and hydrological cycle. The understanding of LULC changes and their interactions with the environment provide better management of agriculture, forests, and water resources. LULC changes are frequently observed in developing countries such as Türkiye and much research has been conducted in this field. However, few studies investigated the countrywide LULC changes and their interactions with energy fluxes and precipitation. In this paper, LULC changes in Türkiye over the last two decades have been evaluated by utilizing an Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from the Terra satellite. The latent and sensible heat fluxes were obtained from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis datasets. Precipitation data were acquired from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The results showed that EVI has an increasing trend over Türkiye between 2000 and 2021, while climate change–induced desertification, droughts, and forest fires have threatened the vegetative cover in some portions of the country. The latent heat flux has a rising trend due to increasing vegetative cover and irrigated areas. A slight reduction was observed in sensible heat flux, while a sharp increase was witnessed in specific humidity. EVI represented a high positive correlation (R = 0.84) with sensible heat flux and a moderate positive correlation (R = 0.69) with latent heat flux. No significant relation was determined between EVI and precipitation on a monthly basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diyarbakır city, in the torrid southeast Anatolia region, harbours significant socioeconomic potentials and a population of over 2 million. Climate factors affect human activities in the city due to heat stress in summer which increases with climate change. Therefore, it is important to analyse outdoor human thermal comfort conditions (OHTCCs) to take required actions for the sustainability and improvement of socioeconomic life. This paper evaluates OHTCCs for the city over a 10-year period for rural and semi-urban sites and 5-year period for urban site. Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) and RayMan, a bioclimate model, were chosen to determine OHTCCs from meteorological parameters. Results indicate that the frequency of heat stress is higher in urban (32.0%) than that in rural (25.6%) and in semi-urban (23.4%) sites while that of comfortable conditions is highest in urban (17.2%), followed by semi-urban (17.1%) and rural (15.8%) sites. Percentage of the cold stress is lowest (13.6%) in urban, followed by rural (21.4%) and semi-urban (22.4%) sites. High variability of summer heat stress over the sites can be explained by surface characteristics and local air circulation patterns. Semi-urban site provides some advantages for experiencing less heat stress since it has the mixed surface characteristics with vegetated and structured zones which can supply moisture to the environment to moderate OHTCCs. It is suggested that authorities should consider the urban planning and implementation actions to improve physical environment and human quality of life and to ensure the sustainability of economic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent work in macroeconomics argues that firm market power dramatically increased since the 1980s in the world. The evolution of product markups has important implications for macroeconomic dynamics. In this paper, we start to document the main patterns of markups in an emerging economy like Turkey using production function approach and dynamic panel approach. Our empirical analysis is based on large-scale firm-level reliable panel data, which enables us to provide sound results in several aspects. In this way, we trace up the facts on the cross section and time series of markups of the firms in manufacturing sector in Turkey over the period 2005–2015. Then, we use our markup estimates to discuss the connection between markup and some selective variables such as firm size, labor share, profitability, and reallocation. It is mainly seen that large firms are critical in determining these variables. This illustrates the significant amount of heterogeneity among the firms in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Located in the District of Zeyrek in Istanbul, Turkey, and completed in the 1960s, the Sosyal Sigortalar Kurumu (SSK) or Social Security Agency Complex is currently accepted as one of the most important works of the architect Sedad Hakkı Eldem as well as one of the key modern buildings in Turkey. The most admired characteristic of this complex is how it is harmonically integrated into its historical context, which was once an urban fabric consisting of vernacular Turkish houses, but has changed significantly to its present condition. To evaluate this claim of harmony in a measurable manner, the present paper uses fractal dimension analysis in four hierarchical layers of consecutively diminished complexity. Thus, it is possible to measure the visual complexity of both the SSK Complex and its historical context in a comparative manner and gain insights about the frequently claimed visual harmony. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the modernized world, stimulating economic growth and employment without endangering environmental sustainability remains a fundamental challenge for developing and newly industrialized economies. This current study investigates the dynamic connections between income growth, unemployment, and environmental deterioration in Turkey within the environmental Phillips and Kuznets curve frameworks. The study employs a novel econometric technique, the augmented autoregressive distributed lag (A-ARDL) model, and examines annual time-series data from 1980 to 2018. To the best of the authors' knowledge, no study has tested the validity of the environmental Phillips curve (EPC) hypothesis (a novel approach linking unemployment with environmental pollution) for Turkey. Another concern with the existing research is that only a few papers simultaneously analyze the EPC and environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypotheses and consider the significance of the ecological footprint. Therefore, the study utilizes ecological footprint as an environmental degradation indicator and tests these two hypotheses by setting six models that control renewable energy consumption, natural resource rents, financial development, foreign direct investments, and urbanization to provide more reliable and consistent results. Empirical evidence from the multiple models justifies the validity of both hypotheses in the short and long run. The results also suggest that natural resource rents increase the ecological footprint, while urbanization contributes to environmental quality. Nonetheless, renewable energy, foreign direct investments, and financial development have no significant environmental impact. These outcomes suggest that a rise in employment not accompanied by green energy technologies, higher environmental awareness, a well-educated labor force, and expanded renewable energy utilization may impede the country from attaining its long-term development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, problems relating to the inadequacy of energy resources are emerging, due to fast population growth and inevitable urban sprawl. Renewable energy resources are of vital importance in order to overcome these problems that endanger countries in terms of economic, social, and environmental factors. The determination of suitable facility locations is a key matter to solve, in order to effectively exploit biomass energy potential. This paper proposes an approach to biomass facility location that integrates open-source geographic information systems (GIS), fuzzy logic, and a best worst method (BWM) solution, which is a newly developed multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method to address optimal facility location. Suitable locations take different criteria into consideration, including potential biomass amount (e.g., agricultural and animal wastes), slope, and distances to roads and water bodies. By utilizing MCDM, the most critical criterion can be determined. Moreover, the paper demonstrates that fuzzy logic allows intermediate values for suitability criteria and is preferable to Boolean logic. The proposed approach is illustrated using all cities of Turkey as an empirical case study. Four specific regions that greatly have highly suitable areas are presented. Sensitivity analysis shows that different agendas such as economic cost and social impact might change the suitability results, specifically in areas of the highly suitable class. These results are most strongly affected by potential biomass amount, population density, and distances to roads and settlements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the inflation spillovers across regions of Turkey by employing the Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast, 28:57–66, 2012) spillover index using the monthly aggregate and 12 subgroups of consumer prices over the period 2005–2021. The results mainly suggest a high degree of inflation spillovers regardless of the type of consumer prices. However, the direction and magnitude of inflation spillovers differ among regions. Istanbul, the most significant metropolitan province, and western regions are the main transmitter of inflation. Conversely, Turkey's eastern and southeastern regions receive more inflation shocks than they contribute, reflecting the level of regional socioeconomic development disparities that matter for price variability. Thus, it makes sense to monitor the westerns and, precisely, Istanbul's inflation to predict future prices in the country. We suggest region-based price management policies to reduce the heterogeneity of inflation spillovers between regions, as some regions are more prone to inflation shocks than others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the impact of livestock activities and geochemical processes on the water quality of a fractured volcanic rock aquifer in the Lake Çıldır watershed, located at the northeastern part of Turkey. The existence of a high livestock population and animal grazing activities in meadow and pasturelands of the watershed during the short summer period poses serious stress on both surface and groundwater resources being the only drinking water supply for the local communities. Therefore, understanding the effect of grazing and livestock breeding activities occurring in the recharge areas of the fractured volcanic rock aquifer is vital to take precautions in order to protect limited water supplies at the watershed and vulnerable lake ecosystem as well. The mean nitrate content of the groundwater was measured at 6.4 ± 6.6 (std. dev) mg/L in the wet (before grazing) period and 7.1 ± 5.9 mg/L in the dry (after grazing) period. Despite low nitrate concentration levels of groundwater, microbial contamination was observed in the spring waters at alarming levels especially after the animal grazing activities. 56%, 26%, and 11% of the groundwater samples showed bacterial contamination in terms of total coliform, fecal coliform, and fecal streptococci contents, respectively, prior to grazing activity, while in pursuit of intense livestock grazing at highland, these microbial indicators have been increased to 92%, 85%, and 77% in the dry period. A significant increase observed in fecal contamination indicates the negative impact of livestock activities on groundwater quality. Al (200–638 µg/L) and Fe (66–218 µg/L) enrichments locally observed in groundwater were related to advanced argillic alteration (kaolinization) and hematization zones in pyroclastic rocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the dynamic interactions between space and identity by focusing on Syrian students in Turkey. It specifically asks how their migration experiences differentially affect their place-based identities and relationships. I use an intersectional approach and add dimensions of space, time, and everydayness to capture the relationship between the agents (Syrian youth) and the structure (norms, values, and institutions). Drawing on participant observation and in-depth interviews with 30 men and women Syrian students in Istanbul, I show how Syrian students negotiate interactions in the public space, working life, and gender roles, as well as their sense of freedom in the new context. Nevertheless, the migration process does not create the same results for both genders, and expecting a total transformation is not realistic. Women are more eager to adapt themselves to change when they are compared to men respondents. Space-based organizational culture in the daily life of Istanbul contributes to this main difference. In this regard, with sociological imagination, this article draws attention to the role of geography, which in its essence examines temporality and spatiality, and which has been underestimated in migration studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The local government reform carried out in Turkey in 2014 intended to strengthen fiscal decentralization. From this perspective, this study is the first to examine the impact of local government reform on the fiscal capacity and fiscal effort of Turkish local governments in 81 provinces over the period of 2007–2019. To measure the local fiscal capacities of the provinces where local governments are located, we utilize spatial analysis considering the disparities. We implement Spatial Durbin and Spatial Autoregressive Models to investigate the spillover effects of the local fiscal capacity and fiscal effort for the local governments. The main results of this study are as follows; (1) The aforementioned reform, contrary to its goals, negatively affected the fiscal capacity of local governments. (2) The increase in the shares obtained by the local governments from the general budget made these local governments more dependent on the central sources, which reduced fiscal effort. (3) As expected, fiscal decentralization has a positive effect on local fiscal capacity. (4) The fiscal capacities of municipalities are spatially dependent on each other. This paper fills a gap in the literature in terms of local fiscal capacity in Turkey and provides policymakers with a different perspective on what needs to be done to increase the local fiscal capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the severe economic crisis in Turkey in 2008-2009 as a quasi-experiment to evaluate the impact of worsening economic conditions during pregnancy on birthweight. Using birth history data from the 2008 and 2013 waves of the Demographic Health Surveys, we find that the economic crisis resulted in decreased birthweight in Turkey, especially impacting infants born to mothers with lower educational levels. Furthermore, a procyclical relationship exists between provincial income levels and the birthweight of infants born to mothers with lower levels of education. However, this relationship is only statistically significant during the crisis period. These results highlights how economic constraints on mothers with lower socio-economic status during economic crises can negatively affect birth outcomes. Furthermore, we examine shifts in fertility behavior and find a decrease in childbirth rates during the crisis, particularly in economically disadvantaged provinces. In line with this decrease in fertility, we also observe a reduced propensity to seek an abortion during the crisis period. Overall, these findings underscore the importance of understanding how economic crises affect infant health and the need for targeted interventions to support vulnerable populations, as well as addressing underlying socio-economic disparities to mitigate their impact on infant well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to identify the causal impact of educational human capital on social distancing behavior at workplace in Turkey using district-level data for the period of April 2020 - February 2021. We adopt a unified causal framework, predicated on domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints anda data-driven causal structure discovery using causal graphs. We answer our causal query by employing machine learning prediction algorithms; instrumental variables in the presence of latent confounding and Heckman's model in the presence of selection bias. Results show that educated regions are able to distance-work and educational human capital is a key factor in reducing workplace mobility, possibly through its impact on employment. This pattern leads to higher workplace mobility for less educated regions and translates into higher Covid-19 infection rates. The future of the pandemic lies in less educated segments of developing countries and calls for public health action to decrease its unequal and pervasive impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The solar photovoltaic (PV) plants in Türkiye have been advancing at a remarkable rate in the last decades because of the region's high solar energy potential. However, it is understood from the literature review that there are still limited research works on the optimization of the tilt angles of PV surfaces to maximize the solar radiation of the PV energy systems in this region. Therefore, this study focuses on a quantitative analysis of the optimal tilt angles of south-oriented PV surfaces and the amount of solar radiation collected by optimally tilted and tracked PV surfaces for all provinces by using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (NASA-SSE) horizontal radiation data for the provinces in Türkiye. Also, a numerical method is proposed to estimate the average daily solar radiation values falling on optimally tilted and tracked PV surfaces in 81 provinces and 7 geographical regions of Türkiye in this paper. An optimal tilt angles map has been created for all provinces where solar plants could be established. Solar data calculations have been carried out for all provinces, and the results are presented for the average total radiation amounts and percentage contributions that can be obtained in the case of installing fixed systems and tracking systems. It is found that the tilt angles of all provinces and regions are below the latitude values of Türkiye (36°′N–42°′N). Annual fixed optimal tilt angle values for south-facing PV surfaces are found between 28° and 36° throughout the year. It is observed that the daily average total radiation values falling on PV surfaces are considerably affected by the geographical and climatic characteristics even between the provinces with close latitude values in Türkiye. The results indicate that the tracking systems provide remarkable solar energy gains compared to the annual fixed systems. The proposed methodology can be used in the case of the implementation of a large-scale PV plant in any location in Türkiye, and this knowledge can be extended to the world thanks to low computational cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of human-origin litter in sea surface water, sediment, and beaches has been increasing for decades. Initially described in marine coastal systems in the 1960s, marine litter (ML) is nowadays commonly observed in all marine systems. There is even a gigantic island consisting of garbage in the gyre area of the Atlantic Ocean. In relation to this significant problem, ML was collected from seven stations on beaches along the Dardanelles for the first time in the period May 2017–May 2018 and was seasonally and regionally analyzed in terms of densities and weights. ML was categorized by material type (plastic, rubber, paper, etc.) and field of use (mixed packaging wastes, personal use products, fishing wastes, etc.). Total numbers and weights of ML during the study were 5751 items and 115.7 kg in an area of 15,980 m2, respectively. Density and weight of ML ranged from 0.050 to 1.182 items/m2 and from 0.446 to 78.46 g/m2, respectively. The main ML component was plastic items in terms of both density (90.95%) and weight (53.76%) according to material type. Additionally, mixed packaging wastes (MPW) were the most common ML items in terms of density (82.14%) and weight (49.38%) according to usage. According to the clean-coast index, while Kilya (St.2) and Kepez (St.5) beaches were dirty, Seddulbahir (St.1) beach was clean. The beaches in other stations were neither dirty nor clean (medium) according to the index. At the end of the study, suggestions for a regional strategy were made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large part of the electricity generation is from imported fossil fuels, which makes Turkey heavily dependent on fossil fuels. For this reason, Turkey aims to increase the ratio of renewable energy resources in the total installed power. Among renewable resources, Turkey's wind energy potential is very high. Although the onshore wind power installed capacity has increased significantly in the last ten years in Turkey, offshore wind energy deployment has not gained satisfactory attention even though the country is surrounded by seas on three of its sides. Therefore, the installation of Turkey's first offshore wind farm, which will be established by the Turkish government was accelerated by opening a tender in 2018. Three potential candidate regions were identified, two located in the Aegean Sea and one in the Black Sea. This paper performs a comprehensive techno-economic analysis of offshore wind farm projects in identified three regions. It was calculated that the total offshore wind power capacity at the specified sites is 3,329.4 MW. In addition, offshore regions were compared in the scope of the methods used in the economic analysis. In this context, the best results an obtained in the Saros OWF region. This study aims to contribute scientifically to the region's offshore wind energy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Rapid Needs Assessment process is carried out immediately after the onset of a disaster to investigate the disaster's impact on affected communities, usually through field visits. Reviewing practical humanitarian guidelines reveals that there is a great need for decision support for field visit planning in order to utilize resources more efficiently at the time of great need. Furthermore, in practice, there is a tendency to use simple methods, rather than advanced solution methodologies and software; this is due to the lack of available computational tools and resources on the ground, lack of experienced technical staff, and also the chaotic nature of the post-disaster environment. We present simple heuristic algorithms inspired by the general procedure explained in practical humanitarian guidelines for site selection and routing decisions of the assessment teams while planning and executing the field visits. By simple, we mean methods that can be implemented by practitioners in the field using primary resources such as a paper map of the area and accessible software (e.g., Microsoft Excel). We test the performance of proposed heuristic algorithms, within a simulation environment , which enables us to incorporate various uncertain aspects of the post-disaster environment in the field, ranging from travel time and community assessment time to accessibility of sites and availability of community groups. We assess the performance of proposed heuristics based on real-world data from the 2011 Van earthquake in Turkey. Our results show that selecting sites based on an approximate knowledge of community groups' existence leads to significantly better results than selecting sites randomly. In addition, updating initial routes while receiving more information also positively affects the performance of the field visit plan and leads to higher coverage of community groups than an alternative strategy where inaccessible sites and unavailable community groups are simply skipped and the initial plan is followed. Uncertainties in travel time and community assessment time adversely affect the community group coverage. In general, the performance of more sophisticated methods requiring more information deteriorates more than the performance of simple methods when the level of uncertainty increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change impact appears as a decreasing or increasing monotonic trend in hydro-meteorology time series records due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions causing to global warming and climate change impacts. On the other hand, there may be abrupt changes in the form of jumps in these series due to natural and engineering activities. Although trend identification methods are rather common in the literature, jump determination conventional methodologies are rather rare and their applications present some restrictive asumptions like the serial independence and normal (Gaussian) probability distribution function (PDF). The methodology presented in this paper is away from each of such assumptions and it depicts the minimum number of upcrossing along horizontal truncation levels within the time series variation domain. The applications of the methodology are given for annual Danube River discharge records, Romania; New Jersey rainfall and temperature records, USA; monthly rainfall records and Van Lake level fluctuations, Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale international assessment studies such as Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) or Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) provide researchers and policy makers the opportunity to conduct secondary analyses to answer questions related to educational outcomes and compare the impact of certain inputs on student outcomes across countries. These comparisons are made under the assumption that the questionnaire items translated to different languages are understood in the same way by its participants. Presenting a case from Turkey, this paper shows that equivalency of questionnaire items is not always achieved. The case explores demographic information related to teacher preparation and the sample is drawn from eighth grade science and mathematics teachers participated in TIMSS 2007, 2011, and 2015 in Turkey. Descriptive analysis of data collected from these teachers and comparisons across subjects and years show that teachers may have misunderstood a question regarding their major, thus limiting potential claims related to teacher preparation in Turkey. Researchers and policy analyst who use secondary data collected by international assessment studies should be aware of such comparability issues in adapted items prior to conducting any secondary analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to use multivariate statistical methods with asymmetric distributions approach, chemical analysis, and inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) device. We investigate data of heavy metal content from Akcay Riverwater to the Mediterranean involving Finike sea coast at Turkey. We determine the chemical content, origin of heavy metals of the surface water in Akcay River, which flows into the Mediterranean realted to the above-mentioned region by multivariate statistical analysis, pollution indices, and density maps involving numerical comments by numbers. With the help of special numbers represented by special chemical components and simmetric statistical methods given above, in this paper, we obtain many new relations and results. Furhermore, we give some comments, observations, and remarks about the results of this paper. These results have a high potential to be used not only in engineering fields and health sciences, but also in applied mathematics, statistics, and other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trend analyses are the necessary tools for depicting possible general increase or decrease in a given time series. There are many versions of trend identification methodologies such as the Mann-Kendall trend test, Spearman's tau, Sen's slope, regression line, and Şen's innovative trend analysis. The literature has many papers about the use, cons and pros, and comparisons of these methodologies. In this paper, a completely new approach is proposed based on the crossing properties of a time series. It is suggested that the suitable trend from the centroid of the given time series should have the maximum number of crossings (total number of up-crossings or down-crossings). This approach is applicable whether the time series has dependent or independent structure and also without any dependence on the type of the probability distribution function. The validity of this method is presented through extensive Monte Carlo simulation technique and its comparison with other existing trend identification methodologies. The application of the methodology is presented for a set of annual daily extreme rainfall time series from different parts of Turkey and they have physically independent structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Waste management is gaining crucial importance as recycling aims at transforming produced waste into value for the economy. As the automotive industry is growing fast worldwide, recycling end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) attracts great research attention. Due to the promulgated regulations, multiple players like the last owners, manufacturers, treatment centres, and municipalities require a more cooperative engagement. The participation of multiple actors in the recycling process of ELVs brings various uncertainties. Additionally, parameters of the recycling process, like the number of vehicles withdrawn per year, cost items, and material composition tend to change due to technological, social, and economic developments. The automotive industry has crucial importance in the Turkish economy, which is highly affected by socio-political and economic issues. Furthermore, the Istanbul metropolitan area has the highest rate of vehicle ownership in Turkey. For that purpose, this paper proposes a scenario-based real-life stochastic optimization model to improve ELV supply chain network management in Istanbul. Sensitivity analyses to changes in scenario occurrence probabilities and changes in the amount of collected ELVs are performed to question the consistency of the study. The results of the mathematical model highlight that the operational cost items have the greatest ratio comparing the other cost items in the model. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity analysis underline that the operational costs and selling prices of the materials from the ELVs have a significant impact on the profitability of ELVs' recycling process. In addition, uncertainty in the number of ELVs has a significant effect on both operational and strategical decision-making processes. This research can be extended in the direction of examining the effectiveness of ELV management in Turkey since Istanbul could represent the whole of Turkey with its economic and cultural characteristics. Further works can also try to implement the novel concept of a "socially resilient supply chain" in the ELVs' management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkey is a developing country with rising energy demands. Energy access is one of the key parameters to sustain the development, since the country meets a considerable part of energy demands by imported fossil fuels. Distributed photovoltaic power generation (DPPG) is one of the sustainable solutions to increase renewable energy sources (RES) shares in primary energy demand. This paper investigates Turkey's current policy system with its excellences and shortcomings in different stages of distributed photovoltaic power generation development in the country. By the assessment of the current situation, a strengths (S) and weaknesses (W) and external opportunities (O) and threats (T) analysis is also conducted to propose urgent strategies to contribute the development of DPPG sector in Turkey. In conclusion, future roles of the government and energy market are discussed to increase integration of DPPG in Turkish renewable energy market comprehensively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the variation in nonperforming loans over the economic cycle and the effect of past returns based on a nonparametric quantile analysis of the largest Islamic banks in the United Kingdom and Turkey from 2010 to 2019. The findings show a weak variation in nonperforming loans that increases with an increasing return on assets and a decreasing return on equity and decreases in an inverse scenario. As a result, the credit risk of Islamic banks is countercyclical. We suggest that the inverse relationships evidence the existence of trade-offs within bank returns and credit risk. Thus, banks' past profitability and risk mitigation are determinants of asset quality. These findings provide support for risk-taking and risk-sharing principles in which flight-to-safety mirrors the calibration of risk factors in a disruptive economy. Our estimates indicate that nonparametric quantile regression captures considerably more variation in a risk-return analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper was the first study comparing levels of anxiety and depression and assessing the affecting factors among the general population, frontline healthcare workers, and COVID-19 inpatients in Turkey during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We collected data from the general population (n = 162), frontline healthcare workers (n = 131), and COVID-19 inpatients (n = 86) using Individual Characteristics Form, Generalised Anxiety Disorder Scale, and Beck Depression Inventory in this cross-sectional study. Results: An increased prevalence of depression and anxiety were found predominantly in frontline healthcare workers (p < 0.001). COVID-19 inpatients and frontline healthcare workers were more likely to demonstrate anxiety (p < 0.001) than the general population. In the regression analysis, while fear of infecting relatives was a significant predictor of anxiety and depression in the general population, gender and experiencing important life events were associated with anxiety. Fear of infecting relatives and lack of personal protective equipment while providing care were predictors of anxiety and depression in healthcare workers (p < 0.001). Furthermore, the fear of being re-hospitalised due to re-infection was a predictor of depression and anxiety levels of the COVID-19 inpatients. Conclusion: Policymakers and mental health providers are advised to continuously monitor psychological outcomes and provide necessary health support during this pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In December 2019, the EU announced the European Green Deal (EGD) to create a climate-neutral continent by 2050. Accordingly, the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) will be revised to maintain economic growth against possible losses in competitiveness, leading to "carbon leakage." Carbon border adjustment (CBA) is one of the mechanisms proposed to tackle the carbon leakage problem. In this paper, we provide a first-order estimate of the potential impacts of a possible CBA across production sectors and build a dynamic, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to study the overall macroeconomic impact of the EGD on the Turkish economy. Then, we extend our analysis to document the potential benefits of a more active climate policy. The model is in the Walrasian tradition wherein aggregate supply and demand actions are simulated with the interplay of relative prices to bring equilibrium in the markets for goods, for labor, and for foreign exchange. Constructed around 24 production sectors, the model accommodates flexible, multi-level functional forms to link production activities with gaseous emissions, a government entity to maintain taxation, and public expenditures, as well as administration of environmental policy instruments, all within an open-economy macroeconomic environment. Our results suggest that the potential adverse impact of the CBA on the Turkish economy would range between 2.7 and 3.6% loss of the GDP by 2030 over the business-as-(un)usual base path. We also document that under an alternative scenario through which Turkey is modeled as an active agent in the international climate policy arena embedding decarbonization into her official macroeconomic policy agenda, she can achieve a superior pathway for national income and a reduced carbon burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After significant earthquakes, we can see images posted on social media platforms by individuals and media agencies owing to the mass usage of smartphones these days. These images can be utilized to provide information about the shaking damage in the earthquake region both to the public and research community, and potentially to guide rescue work. This paper presents an automated way to extract the damaged buildings images after earthquakes from social media platforms such as Twitter and thus identify the particular user posts containing such images. Using transfer learning and ~ 6500 manually labelled images, we trained a deep learning model to recognize images with damaged buildings in the scene. The trained model achieved good performance when tested on newly acquired images of earthquakes at different locations and when ran in near real-time on Twitter feed after the 2020 M7.0 earthquake in Turkey. Furthermore, to better understand how the model makes decisions, we also implemented the Grad-CAM method to visualize the important regions on the images that facilitate the decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation indices of Turkey's precipitation data for the periods 1966–2014. Seven precipitation indices include the number of extremely wet days, very wet days, heavy precipitation days (10 mm and 20 mm), simple daily intensity days, and consecutive dry and wet days. The indices are based on homogenized precipitation data. Besides, long-term changes and trends in the time series of precipitation indices in terms of climatic variability were investigated using nonparametric time series analysis methods. The results obtained are summarized as follows. Extremely wet and very wet day indices include significant decreasing trends in most stations. The trend is statistically significant at some stations in the Mediterranean region and southeastern Anatolia region. The number of heavy precipitation day indices tend to decrease in most of the stations in the Mediterranean precipitation zone, throughout Turkey. Simple daily intensity index generally displays an increasing trend. Consecutive dry days include an overall upward trend throughout Turkey. The inner and in the west of southeastern Anatolia regions have displayed a statistically significant increasing trend. Consecutive humid days tend to decrease overall outside of Turkey's internal parts. The study also examined the relationships between atmospheric oscillation indices and precipitation indices. Accordingly, the atmospheric oscillation index that has the most decisive effect on the Turkish precipitation indices is NAO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trend identification procedures are used to identify systematic monotonic trendlines in a given hydro-meteorological time series recording to represent time-dependent variations as increases or decreases. Different methodologies have been proposed for such descriptions, but most of them require restrictive assumptions such as normal (Gaussian) probability distribution function (PDF), serial independence, and long sample sizes. In particular, pre-whitening and over-whitening are recommended to meet the need for serial independence, but they cannot transform a serially dependent series into a completely independent one. In this paper, a new trend methodology is proposed based on the characteristics of crossings along any given straight line within the given time series, and the sought-after trend component is the one with the maximum number of crossings. This approach does not require any restrictive assumptions. Unlike previous trend algorithms, the proposed cross-empirical trend analysis (CETA) does not give a single trend, but a series of trends at different levels within the variation range of hydro-meteorological time series records. For the sake of brevity, only three levels are considered in this article, at 10%, 50%, and 90% risk levels. The comparison of the CETA approach is presented with the classical and frequently used Mann–Kendall (MK) trend determination procedure method based on Sen's slope calculation. For very small series correlation coefficients and normal PDF function cases, CETA and the classical technique give almost the same trendline within the ± 5% error band. The application of this methodology is presented for monthly and annual discharge records of the Danube River and annual precipitation records from seven geographical regions of Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall are expected to have negative effects on ecosystem services by causing significant shrinkage or shift of forest distribution particularly in Mediterranean basin. In this study, it was aimed to determine the distribution of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.) by modelling the current and future potential locations of the habitats. With Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach, we predicted its distribution under current and future conditions (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Turkey. Modelling was performed by using eight bioclimatic variables that show significant relationship to the current distribution of oriental beech and were widely used in the literature. The fitted model had high quality (93.5% AUC) and is biological meaningful. The prediction of warmer condition in future showed that the populations on the southern slopes of the North Anatolian Mountains were expected to shrink and that there would be reduction in the populations found in the main distribution area in the Istranca Mountains and the Northern Anatolia, especially in populations in the transition zone of Central Anatolia. Also, oriental beech would lose its isolated-marginal populations in the southeast of Turkey. The results highlight the importance of a genetic conservation programme for beech population in Turkey. Otherwise, the genetic pools seem to extinct under climate change. Furthermore, the paper is intended to provide a starting point for a monitoring of oriental beech at the edge of its distribution, to observe its climatic migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the Upper Tigris River (UTR) drainage basin in Turkey for climate change impacted runoff estimations. Statistical downscaling method (SDM) is used by taking into consideration spatial dependence function (SDF) for the scenario precipitation projections at a set of available meteorology stations. Temporal adjustment between the climate scenarios and precipitation record time series is achieved by the white Markov (WM) stochastic process. Although various climate research center scenario data are considered, herein, only the general circulation model (GCM) A2 scenario data are adapted from the Hadley Center, England. The precipitation and runoff results are presented in decadal groups starting from 2001 to 2050 as cumulative monthly precipitation (CMP) and cumulative monthly runoff (CMR) graphs. It is observed that after 2021, precipitation decreases at about 12.5% and after 2030, it is 26%. Runoff projections indicate that they may decrease at about 30% especial after 2040. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since soil temperature (ST) is one of the most critical determinants affecting the soil's physical and chemical properties, the studies on soil temperature estimation increase with the widespread use of deep learning and machine learning algorithms. This study estimates soil temperature at four depths for Giresun and Bayburt stations in Turkey employing the Bayesian Tuned Gaussian Process Regression (BT-GPR), Bayesian Tuned Support Vector Regression (BT-SVR), and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) models. The stations were selected from semiarid (Bayburt station) and very humid (Giresun station) climates to compare the models' performance and measure their applicability in different climate classes. Common meteorological indicators were determined as input parameters in the developed models, and a five-and-a-half-year daily dataset was used for all models. This paper represents a novel scheme to optimize the hyperparameters of kernel functions for GPR and SVR models using the Bayesian optimization method to expand predictive efficiency. The developed GPR and SVR models' outputs are compared with LSTM via three statistical metrics comprising the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (R2). The results show that the BT-GPR model has a superior estimation ability than other developed models for the two stations. The daily ST estimation with the highest accuracy was obtained at a 5-cm depth using BT-GPR at Giresun station (RMSE = 0.0439, R2 = 0.9535, MAE = 0.0344 in the testing phase) and Bayburt station (RMSE = 0.0525, R2 = 0.9438, MAE = 0.0412 in the testing phase). These outcomes provide helpful benchmarking guidance for future soil temperature investigation at various depths across the selected regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the association among carbon dioxide emissions, electricity consumption, capital, financial deepening and urbanisation using data from 1968 to 2013 collected from the World Bank for Turkey. Further, this study applies single- and bi-endogenous structural break unit root approach in addition to the Ng and Perron (2001) to explore the integration order of the series. The bounds test is adopted to analyse the long-run connection among the variables. The robustness of the bounds test was further investigated using the Bayer–Hanck (Bayer and Hanck, Journal of Time Series Analysis 34:83–95, 2013) combined cointegration method. The long-run effects identified the evidence of an inverted U-shaped association among carbon dioxide and urbanisation. This suggests that rapid urbanisation increases the levels of pollution in the initial stages of development. However, after reaching a threshold point, urbanisation reduces environmental pollution. Financial development, electricity use and capital affect COE significantly and positively in both the short and long run, while GDP has a positive and insignificant effect. Additionally, the causal relationships among the variables are identified using the symmetric and asymmetric causal techniques. The outcomes of the causal results showed that financial deepening, urbanisation and electricity use are causing environmental pollution in the short run in the symmetric causality, while CO2 is causing financial development based on the asymmetric causality. The findings suggest that green technologies should be adopted. Further, the use of renewable energy must be ensured for generating the electricity as it will facilitate a reduction in the COE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]