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Single-measurement-point data collection to assess change has increased with studies assessing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and of its containment, despite evidence of its lack of validity. Retrospective change is not equivalent to change in repeated self-reported measures giving raise to questions about the validity of the former. This paper purports to investigate inconsistencies between change measures by confronting retrospective change to information from longitudinally self-reported measures from the C-SURF cohort study. The study sample consists of 2,279 young men who participated in C-SURF between 2020 and 2021, and completed between May and June 2021 a survey covering change in alcohol, cigarette, cannabis and other addictive behaviors related to the pandemic. The aforementioned behaviors were assessed longitudinally at two time points using self-reports, and retrospective change since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis was also assessed at the second measurement time. Information from both prospective and retrospective change measures were confronted to identify inconsistent information for each behavior. Additionally, multiple logistic regressions were performed to assess associations between socioeconomic status, impulsivity, depression, and different indicators of motivation to complete the study and inconsistency between both measures for each behavior of interest. Importantly, inconsistent information in at least one of the investigated behaviors was found in about 90% of the participants. Small associations were found between inconsistency and different factors with a consistent effect of impulsivity. In the absence of evidence of the validity of retrospective change measures, studies relying on retrospective change should be interpreted with caution., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Dupuis et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The spread of COVID-19 implied a large and fast increase of demand for intensive care services. To face this increase in demand, health care systems need to adapt their response by increasing hospital beds, intensive care unit (ICU) capacity and by (re-)deploying doctors and other personnel. This paper proposes a forecast approach based on the Vector Error Correction model for the daily counts of hospitalized patients with symptoms and of patients in ICU, using publicly available data on the current COVID-19 outbreak in Italy, Switzerland and Spain. The level of analysis is the local government managing the health care system response, which corresponds to regions for Italy. The one-week-ahead forecasts are validated with out-of-sample data over successive weeks; they are found to provide timely and robust prediction of ICU capacity needs in Lombardy, the most-affected Italian region, starting from the sample of the first 2 weeks of data. The same methodology is successfully validated on other Italian regions, Switzerland and Spain. This approach may be used in other countries/regions/provinces to help adapt the health care system response to COVID-19 (or other similar disease); for this purpose, the open-source software code to produce the forecasts is provided with the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyze panel data (N = 400) to investigate the change in attitudes towards the Covid-19 measures and the change in compliance behavior between the first and second lockdowns in a sample of young adults from the University of Bern, Switzerland. We find considerable fatigue. While respondents expressed high acceptance of and compliance with the Covid-19 measures during the first lockdown, both acceptance and compliance behavior decreased substantially during the second lockdown. Moreover, we show via a structural equation model that respondents' compliance behavior is largely driven by the perception of how others behave and by the acceptance of the Covid-19 measures. All other effects scrutinized e.g., individual and social risk perception, trust in politics, and pro-social orientations affect compliance behavior via the acceptance of Covid-19 measures. We also conduct two tests of causality of the estimated relation between attitudes towards the measures and social distancing behavior. The first test incorporates the effect of compliance behavior reported during the first lockdown on attitudes during the second lockdown. The second test involves estimating a first difference panel regression model of attitudes on compliance behavior. The results of both tests suggest that the effect of Covid-19 attitudes on social distancing behavior can be interpreted causally., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The health risk of the coronavirus pandemic is age-specific. The symptoms of a COVID-19 infection are usually mild in the healthy population below the age of 65; however, the measures laid down to prevent the spread of the virus apply typically to the whole population. Hence, those who have a low risk of severe symptoms face a social dilemma in cooperating and complying with the safety measures: Cooperating in preventing the spread of the disease is good for society but comes with individual costs. These costs provide an incentive not to cooperate with the safety measures. In this paper we analyze via structural equation modelling a sample of young adults (N = 510) who were surveyed right after the end of the first lockdown period in Switzerland. We investigate why and to what extent they cooperated in preventing the epidemic by following the recommendation to stay at home as much as possible. We hypothesize that those respondents who perceive themselves to be personally at risk, or who have relatives belonging to the risk group, complied more often with the safety measures as compared to those without severe risks. Cooperating should also be linked to individuals' pro-social orientation. Furthermore, we hypothesize that those who believe that the virus is dangerous for society or who have a personal interest in protection show higher support for the general safety measures. Our empirical results show that compliance with the coronavirus social distancing measures was generally very high during the first lockdown. Although young adults perceived themselves to be at low personal risk, they still believed that the virus is dangerous for society. Those who had a personal interest in staying at home because they had relatives belonging to the risk group complied more often with the safety measures. Overall, the results suggest that the support of the preventive measures is the most important promoter of cooperation to prevent the spread of COVID-19., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Governments around the globe have started to develop and deploy digital contact tracing apps to gain control over the spread of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19). The appropriateness and usefulness of these technologies as a containment measure have since sparked political and academic discussions globally. The present paper contributes to this debate through an exploration of how the national daily newspapers in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland reported on the development and adoption of digital contact-tracing apps during early and after stages of the lockdown. These countries were among the first in Europe to develop apps and were critical voices in the debate of decentralized vs. centralized data processing. We conducted thematic analysis on news coverage published between January and May 2020 in high-circulation national daily newspapers from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. A total of 148 articles from nine newspaper companies were included in the final analysis. From our analysis emerged six core themes of the development and adoption of digital contact tracing apps: 1) data governance; 2) role of IT giants; 3) scientific rigor; 4) voluntariness; 5) functional efficacy; 6) role of the app. These results shed light on the different facets of discussion regarding digital contact tracing as portrayed in German-speaking media. This study complements emerging survey data on public perceptions of digital contact tracing apps by providing a better understanding of the ideas circulating in the media ecosystem., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: As part of the Covid-19-restrictions in Switzerland, a federal ban on non-urgent examinations and treatments was applied to all hospitals during six weeks in spring 2020 ("spring lockdown"). The aim of this study was to comprehensively investigate the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on Swiss inpatient admissions based on data of all hospitals, focusing on selected procedures of different medical urgency. Methods: The study includes all acute care inpatient cases (including Covid-19 cases, excluding cases in psychiatry and rehabilitation) according to the Swiss Medical Statistics of Hospitals. Besides the total number of admissions, subdivided by regions, hospital types and age groups, we focused on selected procedures representing different medical urgency: elective surgeries, cancer surgeries, and emergencies. Procedures were selected based on expert interviews. We compared the number of admissions during spring lockdown and for the whole years 2020 and 2021 in absolute numbers and in percentage changes to the corresponding periods in 2019 (baseline year). Results: During spring lockdown, the number of admissions decreased by 47,156 (32.2%) without catch-up effect by the end of 2020 (-72,817 admissions/-5.8%). With procedure-specific decreases of up to 86%, the decline in admissions was largest for elective surgery, a decline that was only fully reversed in the case of a few procedures, such as joint arthroplasty. Strikingly, admissions due to emergencies also substantially decreased during spring lockdown (stroke -14%; acute myocardial infarction STEMI: -9%, NSTEMI: -26%). Results for the selected procedures in cancer surgery showed no consistent pattern. In 2021, admission numbers for most procedures reached or even exceeded those in 2019. Conclusions: The substantial reduction in admissions, particularly in elective procedures, may reflect the impact of the triage in favor of anticipated Covid-19-cases during spring lockdown. By the end of 2020, admissions were still at lower levels relative to the previous, pre-pandemic year. The numbers in 2021 reached the same levels as those in 2019, which suggests that the Covid-19 pandemic only temporarily impacted inpatient health care in Switzerland. Long-term consequences of the observed reduction in admissions for emergencies and cancer surgery need to be investigated at the individual level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality has generally been estimated comparing overall mortality in a given year with either past mortality levels or past mortality trends, with different results. Our objective was to illustrate and compare the two approaches using mortality data for Switzerland in 2022, the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Using data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, standardized mortality rates and life expectancies in 2022 were compared with those of the last pre-pandemic year 2019 (first approach), as well as with those that would be expected if the pre-pandemic downward trend in mortality had continued during the pandemic (second approach). The pre-pandemic trend was estimated via a Poisson log-linear model on age-specific mortality over the period 2010–19. Results: Using the first approach, we estimated in Switzerland in 2022 an excess mortality of 2.6% (95%CI: 1.0%-4.1%) for men and 2.5% (95%CI: 1.0%-4.0%) for women, while the excess mortality rose to 8.4% (95%CI: 6.9%-9.9%) for men and 6.0% (95%CI: 4.6%-7.5%) for women using the second approach. Age classes over 80 were the main responsible for the excess mortality in 2022 for both sexes using the first approach, although a significant excess mortality was also found in most age classes above 30 using the second approach. Life expectancy in 2022 has been reduced by 2.7 months for men and 2.4 months for women according to the first approach, whereas it was reduced by respectively 8.8 and 6.0 months according to the second approach. Conclusions: The excess mortality and loss of life expectancy in Switzerland in 2022 are around three times greater if the pre-pandemic trend is taken into account than if we simply compare 2022 with 2019. These two different approaches, one being more speculative and the other more factual, can also be applied simultaneously and provide complementary results. In Switzerland, such a dual-approach strategy has shown that the pre-pandemic downward trend in mortality is currently halted, while pre-pandemic mortality levels have largely been recovered by 2022. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While a large literature has quantified the health and economic impact of COVID-19, estimates on the subjective losses in quality of life due to government imposed restrictions remain scarce. Methods: We conducted a nationally representative online survey in Switzerland in February 2022 to measure average self-reported quality of life with government restrictions. We used a discrete choice experiment to compute average willingness to pay for avoiding specific restrictions and time-trade-off questions to quantify the relative quality of life under restrictions. Results: A total of 1299 Swiss residents completed the online survey between February 9th and 15th, 2022. On average, respondents valued life under severe restrictions at 39% of their usual life (estimated relative utility 0.39 [0.37, 0.42]). Willingness to pay for avoiding restrictions was lowest for masks (CHF 663 [319, 1007]), and highest for schools and daycares (CHF 4123 [3443, 4803]) as well as private parties (CHF 4520 [3811, 5229]). We estimate that between March 2020 and February 2022 a total of 5.7 Million QALYs were lost due to light, moderate and severe restrictions imposed by the governments. Conclusions: The quality of life losses due to government restrictions are substantial, particularly when it comes to the closure of schools and daycares, as well as the prohibition of private gatherings. Future policies should weigh these costs against the health benefits achievable with specific measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rationale: The COVID-19 pandemic induces considerable strain on intensive care unit resources. Objectives: We aim to provide early predictions of individual patients' intensive care unit length of stay, which might improve resource allocation and patient care during the on-going pandemic. Methods: We developed a new semiparametric distributional index model depending on covariates which are available within 24h after intensive care unit admission. The model was trained on a large cohort of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients out of the Minimal Dataset of the Swiss Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Then, we predict individual length of stay of patients in the RISC-19-ICU registry. Measurements: The RISC-19-ICU Investigators for Switzerland collected data of 557 critically ill patients with COVID-19. Main results: The model gives probabilistically and marginally calibrated predictions which are more informative than the empirical length of stay distribution of the training data. However, marginal calibration was worse after approximately 20 days in the whole cohort and in different subgroups. Long staying COVID-19 patients have shorter length of stay than regular acute respiratory distress syndrome patients. We found differences in LoS with respect to age categories and gender but not in regions of Switzerland with different stress of intensive care unit resources. Conclusion: A new probabilistic model permits calibrated and informative probabilistic prediction of LoS of individual patients with COVID-19. Long staying patients could be discovered early. The model may be the basis to simulate stochastic models for bed occupation in intensive care units under different casemix scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has already changed our globalised world and its long-term impact is not yet known. It is apparent that businesses and institutions are increasingly affected. COVID-19 discussions often focus on intensive care units in hospitals. However, COVID-19 also effects life-saving and -prolonging radiotherapy for patients suffering from cancer. Method: We have conducted a structured online survey among medical physicists in Germany, Austria and Switzerland from March 23rd to 26th 2020. In total 154 responses (82 completed, 72 partially completed) were analysed in the context of the COVID-19 dissemination. Results: 72.4% of the respondent's state that their processes are affected due to COVID-19, while the top three answers are longer processing times (54.2%), patient no-shows (42.5%) and staff reduction (36.7%). 75.8% expect further unavailability of their personnel in the upcoming weeks. All participants have already taken several measures, especially providing information for patients at the entrance (89.6%) or over the phone (73.6%), restricting access for accompanying persons (77.4%) and providing disinfectant at the entrance (72.6%). Discussion: The results presented in this article aim to support business continuity and risk management for radiotherapy centres to prepare for future challenges. The results show that most radiotherapy centres has implemented initial contingency measures, applying them pragmatically. The main problem however remains, that is the high risk of infection both for patients and medical personnel along with the associated risk of temporarily loss of personnel and ordered closure of business. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]