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Daily pandemic surveillance, often achieved through the estimation of the reproduction number, constitutes a critical challenge for national health authorities to design counter-measures. In an earlier work, we proposed to formulate the estimation of the reproduction number as an optimization problem, combining data-model fidelity and space-time regularity constraints, solved by nonsmooth convex proximal minimizations. Though promising, that first formulation significantly lacks robustness against the Covid-19 data low quality (irrelevant or missing counts, pseudo-seasonalities,...) stemming from the emergency and crisis context, which significantly impairs accurate pandemic evolution assessments. The present work aims to overcome these limitations by carefully crafting a functional permitting to estimate jointly, in a single step, the reproduction number and outliers defined to model low quality data. This functional also enforces epidemiology-driven regularity properties for the reproduction number estimates, while preserving convexity, thus permitting the design of efficient minimization algorithms, based on proximity operators that are derived analytically. The explicit convergence of the proposed algorithm is proven theoretically. Its relevance is quantified on real Covid-19 data, consisting of daily new infection counts for 200+ countries and for the 96 metropolitan France counties, publicly available at Johns Hopkins University and Santé-Publique-France. The procedure permits automated daily updates of these estimates, reported via animated and interactive maps. Open-source estimation procedures will be made publicly available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multifractal analysis has become a powerful signal processing tool that characterizes signals or images via the fluctuations of their pointwise regularity, quantified theoretically by the so-called multifractal spectrum. The practical estimation of the multifractal spectrum fundamentally relies on exploiting the scale dependence of statistical properties of appropriate multiscale quantities, such as wavelet leaders, that can be robustly computed from discrete data. Despite successes of multifractal analysis in various real-world applications, current estimation procedures remain essentially limited to providing concave upper-bound estimates, while there is a priori no reason for the multifractal spectrum to be a concave function. This paper addresses this severe practical limitation and proposes a novel formalism for multifractal analysis that enables nonconcave multifractal spectra to be estimated in a stable way. The key contributions reside in the development and theoretical study of a generalized multifractal formalism to assess the multiscale statistics of wavelet leaders, and in devising a practical algorithm that permits this formalism to be applied to real-world data, allowing for the estimation of nonconcave multifractal spectra. Numerical experiments are conducted on several synthetic multifractal processes as well as on a real-world remote-sensing image and demonstrate the benefits of the proposed multifractal formalism over the state of the art. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Numerous indices were devised for the statistical characterization of temporal dynamics of heart rate variability (HRV) with the aim to discriminate between healthy subjects and nonhealthy patients. Elaborating on the concepts of (multi)fractal and nonlinear analyses, the present contribution defines and studies formally novel non Gaussian multiscale representations. Methods: A methodological framework for non Gaussian multiscale representations constructed on wavelet p-leaders is developed, relying a priori neither on exact scale-free dynamics nor on predefined forms of departure from Gaussianity. Its versatility in quantifying the strength and nature of departure from Gaussian is analyzed theoretically and numerically. The ability of the representations to discriminate between healthy subjects and congestive heart failure (CHF) patients, and between survivors and nonsurvivor CHF patients, is assessed on a large cohort of 198 subjects. Results: The analysis leads to conclude that i) scale-free and multifractal dynamics are observed, both for healthy subjects and CHF patients, for time scales shorter than ${\text{170 s}}$ ; ii) a circadian evolution of multifractal and non Gaussian properties of HRV is evidenced for healthy subjects, but not for CHF patients; iii) non Gaussian multiscale indices possess high discriminative abilities between survivor and nonsurvivor CHF patients, at specific time scales ($\sim \!{\text{20 s}}$ and $\sim\! {\text{85 s}}$). Conclusions: The non Gaussian multiscale representations provide evidence for the existence of short-term cascade-type multifractal mechanisms underlying HRV for both healthy and CHF subjects. A circadian evolution of this mechanism is only evidenced for the healthy group, suggesting an alteration of the sympathetic-parasympathetic balance for CHF patients. Significance: Results obtained for a large cohort of subjects suggest that the novel non Gaussian indices might robustly quantify crucial information for clinical risk stratification in CHF patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multifractal analysis has become a standard signal processing tool, for which a promising new formulation, the \boldsymbol p-leader multifractal formalism, has recently been proposed. It relies on novel multiscale quantities, the \boldsymbol p-leaders, defined as local $\ell ^p$ norms of sets of wavelet coefficients located at infinitely many fine scales. Computing such infinite sums from actual finite-resolution data requires truncations to the finest available scale, which results in biased \boldsymbol p -leaders and thus in inaccurate estimates of multifractal properties. A systematic study of such finite-resolution effects leads to conjecture an explicit and universal closed-form correction that permits an accurate estimation of scaling exponents. This conjecture is formulated from the theoretical study of a particular class of models for multifractal processes, the wavelet-based cascades. The relevance and generality of the proposed conjecture is assessed by numerical simulations conducted over a large variety of multifractal processes. Finally, the relevance of the proposed corrected estimators is demonstrated on the analysis of heart rate variability data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In the context of change-point detection, addressed by Total Variation minimization strategies, an efficient on-the-fly algorithm has been designed leading to exact solutions for univariate data. In this contribution, an extension of such an on-the-fly strategy to multivariate data is investigated. The proposed algorithm relies on the local validation of the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions on the dual problem. Showing that the non-local nature of the multivariate setting precludes to obtain an exact on-the-fly solution, we devise an on-the-fly algorithm delivering an approximate solution, whose quality is controlled by a practitioner-tunable parameter, acting as a trade-off between quality and computational cost. Performance assessment shows that high quality solutions are obtained on-the-fly while benefiting of computational costs several orders of magnitude lower than standard iterative procedures. The proposed algorithm thus provides practitioners with an efficient multivariate change-point detection on-the-fly procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Multifractal analysis of human heartbeat dynamics has been demonstrated to provide promising markers of congestive heart failure (CHF). Yet, it crucially builds on the interpolation of RR interval series which has been generically performed with limited links to CHF pathophysiology. Objective: We devise a novel methodology estimating multifractal autonomic dynamics from heartbeat-derived series defined in the continuous time. We hypothesize that markers estimated from our novel framework are also effective for mortality prediction in severe CHF. Methods: We merge multifractal analysis within a methodological framework based on inhomogeneous point process models of heartbeat dynamics. Specifically, wavelet coefficients and wavelet leaders are computed over measures extracted from instantaneous statistics of probability density functions characterizing and predicting the time until the next heartbeat event occurs. The proposed approach is tested on data from 94 CHF patients aiming at predicting survivor and nonsurvivor individuals as determined after a four years follow up. Results and Discussion: Instantaneous markers of vagal and sympatho-vagal dynamics display power-law scaling for a large range of scales, from $\simeq 0.5$ to $\simeq 100$  s. Using standard support vector machine algorithms, the proposed inhomogeneous point-process representation-based multifractal analysis achieved the best CHF mortality prediction accuracy of 79.11% (sensitivity 90.48%, specificity 67.74%). Conclusion: Our results suggest that heartbeat scaling and multifractal properties in CHF patients are not generated at the sinus-node level, but rather by the intrinsic action of vagal short-term control and of sympatho-vagal fluctuations associated with circadian cardiovascular control especially within the very low frequency band. These markers might provide critical information in devising a clinical tool for individualized prediction of survivor and nonsurvivor CHF patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Piecewise constant denoising can be solved either by deterministic optimization approaches, based on the Potts model, or by stochastic Bayesian procedures. The former lead to low computational time but require the selection of a regularization parameter, whose value significantly impacts the achieved solution, and whose automated selection remains an involved and challenging problem. Conversely, fully Bayesian formalisms encapsulate the regularization parameter selection into hierarchical models, at the price of high computational costs. This contribution proposes an operational strategy that combines hierarchical Bayesian and Potts model formulations, with the double aim of automatically tuning the regularization parameter and maintaining computational efficiency. The proposed procedure relies on formally connecting a Bayesian framework to a $\ell _2$ -Potts functional. Behaviors and performance for the proposed piecewise constant denoising and regularization parameter tuning techniques are studied qualitatively and assessed quantitatively, and shown to compare favorably against those of a fully Bayesian hierarchical procedure, both in accuracy and computational load. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]