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• Many local authorities are preparing climate actions plans. • Policies to increase distributed energy generation such as PV are likely. • As capacities increase, PV can dominate system variability and predictability. • Predictive demand side response (DSR) may be too coarse to address this. • More granular techniques such as using system frequency may be required. Since 2018, over three quarters of UK local governments have signed climate emergency declarations signalling a new phase in local climate action. Many areas are developing climate action plans and considering what policies could be adopted to increase the use of distributed energy resources, such as building-integrated photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper we demonstrate how city-scale backcasting can be used as a tool to go beyond technical feasibility and explore the policy, market and governance implications of decarbonisation pathways across the local and nation scales. Using urban PV as an example we model three scenarios for increasing installed capacity in the UK city of Bristol and demonstrate how, in each case, PV switches from being a minor 'negative load' on the energy system to being the dominant factor determining the volatility and predictability of the energy demand during daylight hours. Current approaches to integrating distributed energy resources into the wider system tend to focus on predictive modelling and half-hourly pricing to drive demand-side response. Our analysis indicates the risks of relying on these non-real time methods and suggests that more granular techniques such as triggering local DSR based on changes in electricity system frequency could better manage the variability of high levels of PV deployment at the local scale. We also demonstrate the importance of developing new local approaches to system integration that bring together network operators, local authorities and other local actors to deploy renewable generation and flexibility assets in coordination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From a global perspective, climate change mitigation requires countries to consider Low-Carbon Development (LCD) policies, including "Low-Carbon Transport (LCT)" and decarbonization options, which should be ideally developed within a place-based scope. Due to the complex structure of the transportation sector, mitigation actions require not only technological but also behavioral shifts, which can be challenged by the existing legislative and socio-economic structure of a region. Therefore, it is essential to identify and assess barriers and opportunities (B&Os) as a necessary initial phase in the development of national mitigation strategies. Turkey voluntarily started climate change mitigation by preparing the legislative and political infrastructure as a part of the European Union Harmonization Process. Detection of B&Os in other dimensions required an in-depth evaluation of existing LCT barriers and instruments (B&Is) in the IPCC literature in terms of their applicability and priority for Turkey. A focus group study with transport sector representatives was conducted to evaluate 15 barriers and 19 instruments (proposing 285 B&I matrix combinations), followed by a brain-writing exercise that revealed 12 main barriers (i.e., a lack of measurable targets, an imbalanced modal split, a lack of institutional coordination and data archiving, etc.). Various opportunities have been identified, such as the increased utilization of Intelligent Transportation Systems and the timely adoption of vehicle and fuel technologies in the EU region. These opportunities would not only contribute to the development of a national climate change mitigation strategy but also facilitate the implementation of place-based action plans, including climate change action plans and sustainable urban mobility plans at the city level. • Detection of barriers and opportunities is crucial for decarbonization in countries. • A five-step methodology was developed. • Survey, brain-writing and roundtable discussions were performed. • Major barriers included lack of measurable targets, imbalanced modal split and lack of coordination. • Intelligent transportation systems, new vehicle and fuel technologies were major opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planning power system (PS) towards renewable energy is crucial for reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission as well as mitigating climate change. However, the inherent uncertainty and hierarchical structure of PS pose intractable challenges to the planning process. This study develops a multi-GCM-based interval bi-level programming (MIBP) method that can balance two-level decision-making conflict between CO 2 -emisison reduction and system cost minimization. MIBP can also deal with uncertainties expressed as interval values in objective functions and constraints. Then, a MIBP-PS model is formulated to plan PS for China (2021–2050), where the upper-level objective is to minimize CO 2 emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. The major findings are: (i) the CO 2 emission for PS would reach peak value before 2030 and then reduce by [10.2, 20.4]% in 2050, which is mainly owing to the curtailment of fossil fuel; (ii) compared with the conventional model, CO 2 emission from MIBP-PS model could decrease by [3.1, 4.8]%, which shows the superiority of the developed model; (iii) the fossil-fuel power would be gradually replaced by renewable energy, and the proportion of coal-fired power would decrease by 38.8% by 2050, especially small coal-fired facilities (i.e., below 0.3 GW) should be gradually phased down. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommended more stringent climate mitigation strategies compared to the updated nationally determined contributions (NDC) presented by nations at COP27 to keep global warming temperatures below 2 °C. Given the unique geographical, political, and socioeconomic factors in different regions, it is imperative to evaluate diverse mitigation scenarios required to achieve global climate objectives. This study focuses on the Latin America and Caribbean region due to its vulnerability to global climate adversities and deteriorating climate conditions, notwithstanding its minor contribution to global emissions. Despite facing distinct climate changes, Latin America remains significantly understudied in the broader context of global climate research. The deployment of negative emission technology (NET) is crucial for achieving the end-of-century global climate goal of limiting global mean temperature to 1.5 °C and realizing regional net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. Most countries in Latin America have established such targets for 2050. Among various NETs, Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) has recently gained research interests. This study examines the strategic implementation of NETs across the five socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to provide a comprehensive understanding of the uncertainties in regional mitigation actions and impacts on the intricate climate-energy-land-food-water nexus. In the scenario where emissions decrease by 56 % by 2030 compared to 2020 levels (NDC-56 %) on a net-zero trajectory, energy consumption under DACCS deployment is 13.1–36.2 % higher than without DACCS (between 2040 and 2100, across all SSPs). The energy demands of DACCS, especially in the aggressive NDC-56 % scenario place significant strain on energy resources, which is offset by fossil fuels. Under a globally co-ordinated climate policy and co-deployment of DACCS and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), the NDC-56 % scenario restricts global warming temperatures to 1.81–1.96 °C by 2100. • IAM analysis is used in assessing scenarios of net-zero goal of Latin America. • The deployment of DACCS under aggressive decarbonization is analysed. • The deployment of DACCS reduces the demand on BECCS requirements. • DACCS deployment will reach 88 MtCO 2 /year in the NDC-SSP1 scenario by 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sub-national and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies are being stimulated by the Paris Agreement. Several low carbon studies have been conducted for important emitters such as California State in the US and Chinese provinces. At the same time, carbon mitigation studies have focused on the industrial sector, especially in developing countries. In comparison to the national scenario, the Sao Paulo state in Brazil shows a distinct emission profile. The industry in Sao Paulo is responsible for 14.7% of the total emissions, and this share increases to 31.5% considering energy indirect emissions. Therefore, Sao Paulo mitigation efforts depend on industry’s leadership such as in other parts of the world. The present study has evaluated the Sao Paulo state’s industry mitigation potential between 2014 and 2030 based on a Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curve. In contrast to previous MAC studies, the MAC-SP study has also considered cement related emissions released outside its jurisdictions but that are driven by industrial choices within its boundary. Nine out of seventeen technologies show a negative MAC value, and energy efficiency technologies yield the lowest cost with a weighted average value of -$122/metric ton of CO 2 . Considering only the territorial based approach, the Sao Paulo state’s Industry would avoid 78.4 million metric ton of CO 2 until 2030. Although emissions under Sao Paulo’s responsibility increase 27%, if the consumption-based approach is adopted, the assessed mitigation potential enhances 83% and entails US$ 2.3 billion savings until 2030. In conclusion, the mitigation potential for São Paulo state’s industry is sizeable and consumption-based strategies are worthwhile, especially when regional policies are considered. Results can assist in formulating climate change policies and innovative incentive mechanisms to maximize the regional mitigation potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of a changing climate, a growing number of construction firms are adopting carbon reduction targets on individual projects and across their portfolios. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, some firms are seeking a means of aligning their targets with sectoral, national and international mitigation commitments. There are numerous ways by which such an alignment can be achieved, each requiring different assumptions. Using data from the UK construction industry, this paper reviews current company commitments and progress in carbon mitigation; analyses the unique challenges in aligning construction targets, and presents a series of possible sectoral decarbonisation trajectories. The results highlight the disparity between current company targets and the range of possible trajectories. It is clear that a cross-industry dialogue is urgently required to establish an appropriate response that delivers both a widely-accepted target trajectory and a plan for its delivery. This paper is intended to stimulate and support this necessary debate by illustrating the impact of different methodological assumptions and highlighting the critical features of an appropriate response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing local and global emissions is one of the drivers behind the promotion of renewable energy technologies (RETs). Some RET projects (e.g. solar, marine power, and some biomass and wind) usually require supplemental income from carbon credits in order to make them economically viable. This paper presents the mathematical development of nodal marginal CO 2 emission metrics for hydrothermal systems. These metrics are obtained from optimal power flow and hydrothermal dispatch models considering hydro uncertainty. The proposed model allows a more accurate assessment of the emission reduction effect of RET projects and the provision of efficient carbon signals to the system. Modeling of hydro reservoirs and intertemporal constraints also allows incorporating the emission mitigation potential of water storage. The concepts of marginal CO 2 emissions for hydrothermal systems are first exemplified using a small test system, and then simulations on a real hydrothermal system illustrate how these metrics can inform investment and operational decisions. Theoretical and simulation results show that transmission and hydro storage constraints neglect may provide wrong signals for RET investors, missing the incentives to install in areas where the potential for emissions reduction is higher (where renewable energy displaces a larger amount of coal or diesel). Policy makers can use the proposed model to assess the cost-effectiveness of emission reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism needs to reduce emissions in line with other economic sectors, if the international community's objective of staying global warming at 1.5°-2.0 °C is to be achieved. This will require the industry to half emissions to 2030, and to reach net-zero by mid-century. Mitigation requires consideration of four dimensions, the Scales, Scopes, Stakeholders and Strategies of carbon management. The paper provides a systematic review of these dimensions and their interrelationships, with a focus on emission inventory comprehensiveness; allocation principles at different scales; clearly defined responsibilities for decarbonization; and the identification of significant mitigation strategies. The paper concludes that without mitigation efforts, tourism will deplete 40% of the world's remaining carbon budget to 1.5 °C. Yet, the most powerful decarbonization measures face major corporate, political and technical barriers. Without worldwide policy efforts at the national scale to manage the sector's emissions, tourism will turn into one of the major drivers of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of “pathways” has increasingly come to frame the challenge of transitioning to low-carbon societies. It also shows promise as a bridging concept, encouraging constructive dialogue among the diverse perspectives and constituencies evoking its use. However, its interpretations and attributes are rarely explicit and have yet to be subject to serious scrutiny. This raises important questions for both theory and governance as the way in which a problem is framed shapes how it is understood and addressed, structuring the possibilities considered and privileging certain responses. Therefore, this study explores the concept of pathways in the context of low-carbon transitions, exposing its conceptions, maturation, and implications. Based on a survey of the relevant climate change mitigation literature, this analysis uncovers three core conceptions of pathways in the context of low-carbon transitions: (1) biophysical, (2) techno-economic, and (3) socio-technical. Constituted by diverse perspectives and approaches, each of these three core conceptions emphasize different yet interconnected dimensions of the decarbonization challenge. This analysis also points to several key attributes and functions of the concept of pathways. Yet, while the concept may possess a variety of features that recommend its use as a critical problem frame for low-carbon transitions, it also raises issues that suggest a need for further reflexivity. If the concept is cast too strongly in terms of individual core conceptions, there may be a tendency to emphasize certain dynamics while paying somewhat less attention to others, inadvertently diminishing the complexity of the decarbonization challenge. Beyond this, there are other facets of the concept that have to date received more limited attention, including the implications of choices at critical junctures and the evolving character of social practices. So, there is room for the concept of pathways to engage more fully with the range of complexities embodied by low-carbon transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses economic, social, and environmental challenges to humanity. Through the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement (PA), World leaders are obliged to identify climate solutions. In 2015, within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Challenge (UNFCCC), 197 countries negotiated the PA on climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study examines Africa's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) pledges: 47 African countries provided such pledges in 2016, while 7 countries did not ratify the PA at the time. This study hereafter examines the PA treatment effect by designing a difference-in-differences technique between (2015) and (2018). The results reveal that 47 African countries that ratified the PA together have reduced carbon emissions intensity (CE) by about 80.76% of the pledge. The implication is that based on the NDCs' pledge to reduce emissions by 32% in 2030, African countries avoided emissions by approximately 26% by 2018. The study also analyses which policy measures assisted in CE reduction, showing renewable and clean energy. This suggests that African countries to the PA ratification have not over-ambitiously increased CE in their pursuit of economic growth and development. We further estimate carbon efficiency (CEE) as a total-factor analysis. It indicates that the 47 African countries' ratification of the PA has contributed to improving CEE. Thus, the economic productivity of the factor inputs relative to those which did not ratify at the time. The results suggest that the countries that ratified the PA have a carbon efficiency reduction potential of 23.47%, while those that declined have a wider gap of 77.77%. The inferred conclusions is that countries which declined the PA ratification or later withdrawal will increase emissions and hence leading to climate consequences. The authors propose insightful, targeted policies toward achieving efficient climate goals in Africa via integrated economic and environmental measures. • Africa is a committed actor in Paris Agreement toward emissions mitigation. • NDC pledges of African countries are presently consistent with emissions targets. • Quasi-experiment on climate change policy shows reduction in carbon emissions. • NDCs contribute to carbon emission reductions of African countries • NDCs provide opportunities for socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study contributed to the environmental research by analyzing the nexus between innovation in climate change mitigation technologies and carbon dioxide emissions in the United States, with the gross domestic product per capita, international collaboration in green technology development, renewable energy consumption, the labor force, and trade openness as control variables from 1990Q1 to 2018Q4. First, the results suggested that renewable energy consumption, innovation in climate change mitigation technologies, and international collaboration in green technology development are significant mitigating and determining factors for carbon dioxide emissions. Second, the findings also indicated that trade openness and gross domestic product per capita were positively associated with carbon dioxide emissions. Third, the Granger causality test results validated the presence of a bidirectional nexus between innovation in climate change mitigation technologies and carbon dioxide emissions, renewable energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, and international collaboration in green technology development and carbon dioxide emissions. Fourth, the results validated a one-way causality between gross domestic product per capita and carbon dioxide emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The bottom-up dynamic building stock model builds upon individual buildings from GIS datasets. • The model integrates material flow analysis, building energy modeling, and life cycle assessment. • More than 90% of GHG emissions can be reduced if all strategies are deployed together. • Energy transition plays a key role in decarbonizing the building stock. • Material-related strategies contribute much less to residential decarbonization than energy-related strategies. Decarbonizing the building stock plays an important role in realizing climate change mitigation targets. To compare the decarbonization potential of different strategies, this study presents a spatiotemporal bottom-up dynamic building stock model that integrates material flow analysis, building energy modeling, and life cycle assessment. It can simulate future building stock evolution at the component level and track the associated material flows, energy demand and generation, and GHG emissions with the consideration of both endogenous factors (e.g. building energy efficiency upgrade) and exogenous factors (e.g. policies, occupant behavior, and climate scenarios). The model is applied in the residential building stock of Leiden, a municipality in the Netherlands. Results show that annual GHG emissions are reduced by about 40% under the reference scenario while annual GHG emissions can be reduced by about 90% under the ambitious scenario where all the decarbonization strategies are simultaneously implemented. Natural-gas-free heat transition and renewable electricity supply are the most effective strategies, respectively reducing the annual GHG emissions in 2050 by an additional 21% and 19% more than the reference scenario. Rooftop PV, green lifestyle, and wood construction have similar decarbonization potential (about 10%). Surplus electricity can be generated if rooftop PV systems are installed as much as possible. The decarbonization potential of demolition waste recycling is much smaller than other strategies. The model can support policymakers in assessing the decarbonization potential of different policy scenarios and prioritizing decarbonization strategies in advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study considers the potential conflict between economic growth and climate change mitigation. Some believe green growth is an option, while others think climate goals are incompatible with growth. It does so by developing a sector-based approach to analyze the relation between on the one hand carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of output and on the other the growth in economic output and labor productivity. This allows us to investigate whether green growth – combining economic growth with environmental sustainability – is feasible. The analysis covers Denmark, Germany and Spain for the period 1995–2007. An important innovation of this study is that carbon intensity is calculated in two different ways: (1) as direct carbon dioxide emissions from each sector, which can be seen to immediately result from the processes in the respective sector; and (2) as total, direct plus indirect, emissions, by using environmentally-extended input–output tables and considering also indirect carbon emissions through imported goods. Another novelty of this study is that we calculate correlations over time between sectoral carbon intensity and a range of economic indicators: sectoral total and relative output, final demand, value added, and so-called output and valued-added productivity indicators, and their change. A main conclusion is that despite past climate policy, developed under the Kyoto protocol, relatively clean sectors do not seem to be more productive than dirtier ones, and neither show higher productivity growth. Sectors associated with high carbon intensity grew more in absolute terms than those with low carbon intensity. The share of these sectors increased suggesting that green development requires an extremely rapid pace of decarbonization (to allow for green growth), or the economy as a whole to shrink (green decline). An important additional finding of this study is that longer-term sectoral growth, as expressed by a change in value added, does not seem to be positively correlated with carbon intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union relies largely on bioenergy to achieve its climate and energy targets for 2020 and beyond. We assess, using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment (A-LCA), the climate change mitigation potential of three bioenergy power plants fuelled by residual biomass compared to a fossil system based on the European power generation mix. We study forest residues, cereal straws and cattle slurry. Our A-LCA methodology includes: i) supply chains and biogenic-CO 2 flows; ii) explicit treatment of time of emissions; iii) instantaneous and time-integrated climate metrics. Power generation from cereal straws and cattle slurry can provide significant global warming mitigation by 2100 compared to current European electricity mix in all of the conditions considered. The mitigation potential of forest residues depends on the decay rate considered. Power generation from forest logging residues is an effective mitigation solution compared to the current EU mix only in conditions of decay rates above 5.2% a −1 . Even with faster-decomposing feedstocks, bioenergy temporarily causes a STR(i) and STR(c) higher than the fossil system. The mitigation potential of bioenergy technologies is overestimated when biogenic-CO 2 flows are excluded. Results based solely on supply-chain emissions can only be interpreted as an estimation of the long-term (>100 years) mitigation potential of bioenergy systems interrupted at the end of the lifetime of the plant and whose carbon stock is allowed to accumulate back. Strategies for bioenergy deployment should take into account possible increases in global warming rate and possible temporary increases in temperature anomaly as well as of cumulative radiative forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 1997 to 2012, 114 Japanese industry associations implemented voluntary action plans, which are not enforced by laws or regulations, to reduce carbon emissions. This paper investigates whether the establishment of these voluntary action plans by industry associations contributed to the adoption of a carbon emissions target at the firm level within the associations. Using a survey of approximately 1000 firms in Japan, this paper finds that small and medium-sized firms in sectors with voluntary action plans were 2–4 times more likely to establish their own carbon emissions targets than were firms belonging to industry associations without voluntary action plans. In contrast, the paper finds that voluntary action plans did not affect the establishment of emissions targets among firms with more than 3000 employees. This result is consistent with the survey responses, which found that periodic follow-ups under a voluntary action plan helped small firms to obtain important pieces of information and that industry associations played an important role in this process. In general, small firms have relatively large potential for energy saving, but the lack of information prevents its realization. The results confirm the importance of voluntary action plans in removing the information barriers of relatively small firms and encouraging them to implement carbon emissions targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this paper is to showcase a modelling exercise, conducted for the Republic of Macedonia, a non-Annex I country under UNFCCC and a candidate for EU membership, by making use of MARKAL energy system model. Baseline Scenario and three groups of mitigation scenarios have been developed until 2050, reflecting different types of targets with different levels of ambition regarding CO 2 emissions reduction: (1) EU scenarios – end-year targets compared to 1990 level; (2) QELRC (Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Commitment) scenarios – a range of targets over the period 2021–28 and for each subsequent 8-year period, and (3) Baseline deviation scenarios – deviation compared to baseline emission level. The comparative assessment of mitigation scenarios, based on the cumulative emissions, cumulative total system costs and incremental specific reduction cost, has generated a basis for setting the national mitigation contributions and formulating the most appropriate national mitigation action plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming mitigation is used as a key to devise built environment strategies and sustainable policies in developed countries that aim to reduce the rate of carbon emissions. The goal of this research is to mitigate global warming from building construction by suggesting an alternative building scheme for Malaysia. A problem related to the building industry is releasing carbon dioxide emission. Use of timber for construction has less impact on the environment due to less carbon dioxide emissions, thus making wood the best material for wall construction. However, as the Malaysian climate is hot and humid, wood encounters many defects and deteriorates. Presently, most buildings in Malaysia are built from other materials such as concrete or brick. In the last 40 years, wood materials in building schemes in Malaysia have dropped from 60% to almost 5%. This research proposed a new approach to minimize the effect of CO 2 emission for buildings as well as to improve their structural stability for a longer lifespan because these would encourage the Malaysian construction industry to use wood components in their building schemes. In this study, SIMAPRO Software was used to assess CO 2 emissions caused by seven different types of building schemes in wall constructions. The results from a simulation of three time frames of twenty, one hundred and five hundred years showed that timber scheme is the best choice for construction. To promote the use of timber, a new building scheme that would solve the problem of timber wood structure in Malaysia were proposed. The alternative building scheme has combined precast concrete and timber (H8) to improve the timber scheme deficiency while releasing less CO 2 emissions compared to other systems. Therefore (H8) could replace current building schemes. This research can facilitate decision-maker to choose the most flexible scheme for Malaysian housing. Thus, this system could be positively and widely used in the Malaysian construction industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A multi-GCM ensemble simulation and optimization approach is developed. • The developed approach can effectively tackle multiple uncertainties. • The impact of climate change on energy-economy-carbon nexus system is investigated. • Renewable energy will gradually replace fossil fuel for mitigating climate change. • There is a tradeoff between carbon dioxide emission and system cost. Climate change mitigation by reducing carbon dioxide emission becomes one of the major challenges for energy systems. In this study, a multi-GCM ensemble simulation and optimization approach is developed for analyzing the impact of climate change on China's energy-economy-carbon nexus system under multiple uncertainties through integrating techniques of multiple global climate models, support-vector-regression, Monte Carlo simulation, and interval chance-constrained programming within a general framework. The developed approach can tackle multiple uncertainties existed in global climate models, random carbon dioxide emission and complex optimization process. Results disclose that (i) the national electricity demand would grow around 58.6% in the next 30 years under climate change; (ii) for climate change mitigation and sustainable development, fossil fuel would be gradually replaced by renewable energy (i.e. the share of fossil fuel to the total energy supply decreasing 22.5% and the share of electricity generated from renewable energy increasing 27.0% by 2050); (iii) compared to the peak value in 2030, carbon dioxide emission would reduce 15.1% by 2050, most reduction from coal-fired power generation; (iv) there is a tradeoff between carbon dioxide emission and system cost as p-level decreases from 0.15 to 0.01 (i.e. carbon dioxide emission can reduce 1.9% with 3.7% of raised system cost). It is desired for China to adjust its current energy supply structure for reducing carbon emission and seeking a low-carbon developmental path. The most effective way is to eliminate some small coal-fired units. A number of wind-power and solar-power projects are expected to be implemented due to their abundant potential markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]