Search

Considering the impact of photovoltaic installations and the fact that their performance depends on the type of day, this paper presents a classifier that makes use of fuzzy logic to classify daily irradiance profiles as a human would do. To do this, the system must be linguistically interpretable, so the classifier must be simple enough, but without losing accuracy. This is why the article combines the use of data mining and supervised learning algorithms to obtain an initial system and then exploits simplification techniques such as the concept of fuzzy classifiers with incomplete rule bases, as well as fuzzy tabular simplification of rules to obtain a compact and simple final system. The classifier obtained handles the ambiguity presented by the daily irradiance profiles with precision. Once the system has been obtained, a large number of days in southern Spain are classified, analysing the performances of a photovoltaic plant obtained in each of the classes. Then, a neuro-fuzzy system is designed to predict the performance of the photovoltaic installation, considering the type of day, the maximum ambient temperature reached during the day, and the degradation of the installation over time, proving its usefulness in alerting about anomalous behaviour of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main lines of research in the discipline of mobility mining is the development of predictors able to anticipate human travel behaviour in great detail. However, access to the high-resolution spatio-temporal data on which most existing solutions are based is rather limited due to multiple factors, e.g. costly access to third-party data. These restrictions give rise to a problem of developing predictors of human mobility in most setting, since the amount of data available to train these prediction models is insufficient. This paper explores the feasibility of using a public data source such as Twitter to predict the number of trips at the nationwide level. The proposed approach combines a large set of geotagged Twitter posts with an open data source published by the Spanish government on traveller mobility based on mobile phone location. Both datasets are used as input to Machine Learning models to validate the use of Twitter data for improving the prediction of these models. The results show that Twitter data have considerable value as a predictor of large-scale human mobility, especially for Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. As a result, the relevance of this work resides in demonstrating that the use of Twitter could be considered as an alternative to substantially enhance the prediction of mobility within a country when it is combined with other open data sources. • A novel approach for nation-wide human mobility forecasting is proposed. • The predictor combines mobile-phone and Twitter location data as input variables. • LSTM and VAR models have been tested as candidates to develop the mechanism. • Twitter has proved to be a suitable exogenous input. • The system has been tested in Spain achieving a 6.85 CRMSE for 7-day prediction. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A novel genetic algorithm-based seasonal fractional grey model is proposed. • Monthly electricity generation is forecasted since the Covid-19 lockdown started. • Seasonal grey and machine learning models are used for forecasting. • The selected countries are France, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and the UK. • The share of renewables in total electricity generation is forecasted. Balances in the energy sector have changed since the implementation of the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown in Europe. This paper analyses how the lockdown affected electricity generation in European countries and how it will reshape future energy generation. Monthly electricity generation from total renewables and non-renewables in France, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and the UK from January 2017 to September 2020 were evaluated and compared. Four seasonal grey prediction models and three machine learning methods were used for forecasting; the quarterly results are presented to the end of 2021. Additionally, the share of electricity generation from renewables in total electricity generation from 2017 to 2021 for the selected countries was compared. Electricity generation from total non-renewables in the second quarter of 2020 for France, Germany, Spain, and the UK decreased by 21%–25% compared to the same period of 2019; the decline in Turkey was approximately 11%. Additionally, electricity generation from non-renewables in the third quarter of 2020 for all countries, except Turkey, decreased compared to the same period of the previous year. All grey prediction models and support vector machine method forecast that the share of renewables in total electricity generation will increase continuously in France, Germany, Spain, and the UK to the end of 2021. The forecasting methods provided by this study open new avenues for research on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the future of the energy sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]