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The uncertainty of the hydrological environment and unbalanced water resource allocation result in a high risk of irrigation water shortages in regional agriculture, which seriously affects the sustainable development of agricultural systems. In this paper, we propose a risk regulation based modeling approach for the optimal allocation of agricultural water resources in a complex stochastic environment. The approach includes a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) model, two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) model, two-dimensional joint distribution probability (JP) model, fractal criteria, and a multiple forms of chance-constrained programming (CCP) model. The model can weigh the contradiction between the intended target and associated penalties attributed to unknown hydrological events, measure the risk between system benefits and expected losses in agricultural water allocation at different confidence levels, and address the randomness in the objective function and constraints (including the left end term, right end term, and left and right end terms). To verify the applicability of the method, it is applied to the Jinxi Irrigation District in China to optimize the allocation and risk regulation of limited water resources under the variable runoff conditions of the Songhua River and crop water demands in the irrigation area. By adjusting parameters such as risk preference and probability of violation, the risk of water shortages in the irrigation area can be regulated, and the multidimensional impacts of different water allocation schemes on agricultural economic benefits, social benefits, ecology and environment can be determined. The case study reveals that the CTSP-CCJP method is sensitive, applicable to complex and uncertain environments and important for the efficient use of agricultural water resources and risk reduction. • The stochastics of water supply and demand linkage are considered. • The multiparameter stochastic uncertainty is transformed. • The risks between system benefits and expected losses are balanced. • The sustainability of a risk regulation-based water allocation scheme is evaluated. • The impact of water scarcity on sustainable development is mitigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid and large-scale industrial growth has imposed tremendous challenges to the sustainable development of cities in China. The evaluation of the environmental sustainability of industrial planning has become a top priority for improving urban sustainability. In this regard, a goal-oriented framework, called three-line environmental governance, was proposed in the latest Chinese environmental management policy. Three lines, consisting of an ecological conservation red line, an environmental quality bottom line and a resource utilization upper limit line are to be taken into account when evaluating the potential effects of an urban industrial development plan. In this paper, the fuzzy axiomatic design system was applied in the development of an evaluation process and an indicator system that can be used to evaluate industrial alternatives that are established based on the three lines requirement. In an application of this methodology, the Industrial Green Development Plan of the city of Ordos was taken as a case study to recommend an optimal alternative. The target accessibilities of five alternatives were evaluated by conducting a comprehensive comparison among the alternatives meeting the environmental sustainability objectives of all of the indicators. This research shows that the evaluation of environmental sustainability on the basis of the three-line environmental governance policy is an effective way of promoting industrial green development and integrating environmental management requirements into urban industrial planning. It proposes not only a universal process for evaluating the environmental sustainability of urban industrial alternatives, but also a feasible method of tracking and evaluating the performance of industrial green development. • Three-line environmental governance (TLEG) is a new goal-oriented policy in China. • TLEG provides a framework for decomposing environmental sustainability (ES) goals. • A holistic and unified evaluation indicator system is established under TLEG. • Fuzzy axiomatic design is used to evaluate the target accessibility of alternatives. • TLEG based ES evaluation serve as a potential way to promote green industrial growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]