Search

A region known for its volatility, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has suffered severe economic and social setbacks from crises—including the COVID-19 pandemic. These crises have taken their toll on careers, wage growth, and productivity. Employment in Crisis: The Path to Better Jobs in a Post-COVID-19 Latin America provides new evidence on the effects of crises on the region's workers and firms and suggests several policy responses that can bolster long-term and inclusive economic growth.This report has three key findings. First, crises lead to persistent employment losses and accelerate structural changes away from the formal sector. This change occurs more through reductions in the creation of formal jobs than through job destruction.Second, some workers recover from crises, while others are permanently scarred by them. Low-skilled workers can suffer up to a decade of lower earnings caused by crises, while high-skilled workers rebound fast, exacerbating the LAC region's high level of inequality. Formal workers suffer smaller employment and wage losses in localities with higher rates of informality. And the reduced job flows caused by crises decrease welfare, but workers in localities with more job opportunities, whether formal or informal, bounce back better.Third, crises'cleansing effects can increase efficiency and productivity, but these effects are dampened by the LAC region's less competitive market structure. Rather than becoming more agile and productive during economic downturns, protected sectors and firms gain market share and crowd out others, trapping valuable resources.This report proposes a three-pronged mix of policies to improve the LACregion's responses to crises:• Create a more stable macroeconomic environment to smooth the impacts of crises, including automatic stabilizers such as unemployment insurance and short-term compensation programs;• Increase the capacity of social protection and labor programs to respond to crises and coalesce these programs into systems that complement income support with reemployment assistance and reskilling opportunities; and• Tackle structural issues, including the lack of product market competition and the spatial dimension behind poor labor market adjustment—a “good jobs and good firms” agenda.

While adoption of new technologies is understood to enhance long-term growth and average per-capita incomes, its impact on lower-skilled workers is more complex and merits clarification. Concerns abound that advanced technologies developed in high-income countries would inexorably lead to job losses of lower-skilled, less well-off workers and exacerbate inequality. Conversely, there are countervailing concerns that policies intended to protect jobs from technology advancement would themselves stultify progress and depress productivity. This book squarely addresses both sets of concerns with new research showing that adoption of digital technologies offers a pathway to more inclusive growth by increasing adopting firms'outputs, with the jobs-enhancing impact of technology adoption assisted by growth-enhancing policies that foster sizable output expansion. The research reported here demonstrates with economic theory and data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico that lower-skilled workers can benefit from adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies biased towards skilled workers, and often do. The inclusive jobs outcomes arise when the effects of increased productivity and expanding output overcome the substitution of workers for technology. While the substitution effect replaces some lower-skilled workers with new technology and more highly-skilled labor, the output effect can lead to an increase in the total number of jobs for less-skilled workers. Critically, output can increase sufficiently to increase jobs across all tasks and skill types within adopting firms, including jobs for lower-skilled workers, as long as lower-skilled task content remains complementary to new technologies and related occupations are not completely automated and replaced by machines. It is this channel for inclusive growth that underlies the power of pro-competitive enabling policies and institutions—such as regulations encouraging firms to compete and policies supporting the development of skills that technology augments rather than replaces—to ensure that the positive impact of technology adoption on productivity and lower-skilled workers is realized.

What to do about the extent of unregulated informal employment and the size of the shadow economy is a dilemma that has been gaining urgency, particularly in Europe's periphery. The forces that accompany globalization put a premium on mobility and skill-renewal. Rapid population ageing will require that people work longer and be far more productive. To achieve this, social and economic institutions have to be more pro-employment, encouraging greater participation in the formal economy. And looking ahead, public financial resources will be increasingly scarce, giving urgency to measures that can significantly and sustainably increase tax revenue. This book is about workers in Europe who earn a living working full or part-time in untaxed markets for goods, services and labor. Their activities are not registered as part of the economy, and because they go unrecorded, they are also unregulated. This makes them illegal although not in essence criminal. Some call this the underground economy, black market or the shadow economy. Widespread informal employment in the shadow economy posses problems for individuals and their families, but it is also a problem for firms and society. This volume presents the rationale and steps policy makers in the EU's newest member countries should take to bring as much economic activity in from the shadow economy as they can. The authors venture a general conclusion: Although it may be necessary to improve the structural incentives created by the structure of taxation, labor market regulation, and social protection policies, doing so is not sufficient to achieve real improvement. As important, is a government's credibility in the eyes of working people in carrying out the state's unique and critical role of providing and maintaining public goods. The process of improving governance and increasing institutional credibility is long and difficult, but key to changing the circumstances that lead people into the shadowy unregulated and untaxed markets. Deriving specific policy guidance and recommendations from rigorous analysis using administrative and unit-level survey data the book draws a set of general policy suggestions for EU members, old and new, as well as those who aspire to join the Union. Although aimed specifically at emerging Europe, this policy guidance will resonate with decision makers in middle and upper-middle income countries in other parts of the world.

Beyond Survival breaks new ground in the ongoing debate about health finance and financial protection from the costs of health care. The evidence and discussion support the need to consider financial protection, in addition to health status, as a policy objective when setting priorities for health systems. This book reviews the Latin American experience with health reform in the last 20 years and the fundamentals of health system financing, using new evidence to show the magnitude and mechanisms that determine the impoverishing effects of health events (diseases, accidents, and those of the li.

Nations around the world (both large and small, rich and poor) are engaged in debate over how to reform their social security systems and care for the aged. For many countries this debate requires speculation on hypothetical scenarios, but in Latin America a rich body of experience on social security reform has been accumulating for more than a decade (for Chile, more than two decades). This report, entitled, Keeping the Promise of Social Security in Latin America, takes stock of those reforms, evaluates their successes and failures, and considers the lessons that can be drawn for the future of pension policy in the region. The authors draw on a series of background papers and surveys commissioned specifically for this inquiry, as well as existing research conducted by themselves and other pension experts. In the debate on pension reform there is no orthodoxy, as reflected in major differences of opinion among leading experts. Despite more than a decade of experience with pension reform in Latin America, although undoubtedly a major step forward, reforms are still works in progress. This report furthers enrich the policy dialogue that is of crucial importance to the future of the region.