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Die COVID-19-Pandemie hat weltweit dramatische Folgen. Mathematische Modelle spielen bei ihrer Bewertung eine zentrale Rolle: Sie sollen die Wirkung von Maßnahmen abschätzen, die oft mit Einschränkungen individueller Freiheiten einhergehen. Umso mehr sollte das Wissen um die Mathematik der Pandemie nicht nur Experten überlassen bleiben. Dieses Buch erläutert grundlegende Begriffe und Modelle, und klärt weitverbreitete Missverständnisse auf. Das Buch gibt insbesondere Antwort auf folgende Fragen:Was sagen Kennzahlen wie Inzidenz, Reproduktionszahl, Hospitalisierungsrate oder Impfquote über die Pandemie?Was ist der Unterschied von linearem und exponentiellem Wachstum?Was ist Herdenimmunität? Warum werden sich trotz Herdenimmunität fast alle Ungeimpften anstecken?Was ist der Effekt von Kontaktbeschränkungen und Impfung?Warum sind Vorhersagen in der Pandemie schwierig?

This book describes the latest advances at the Helmholtz “Earth System Science Research School” where scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, the University of Bremen, and the Jacobs University are involved in research.One of the greatest challenges is understanding ongoing environmental changes. The longer the time scale the more components of the Earth system are involved, e.g. interannual and decadal variations are related to the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice system, whereas longer variations like glacial-interglacial or Cenozoic transitions involve the carbon cycle, ice sheets and gateways. In order to get deep insights into Earth system science, observations, remote sensing, past environmental data, as well as modeling need to be integrated. These different approaches are traditionally taught in separated disciplines at bachelor and master levels. It is, therefore, necessary to bring these disciplines together in PhD programs.

Earth system science is traditionally split into various disciplines (Geology, Physics, Meteorology, Oceanography, Biology etc.) and several sub-disciplines. Overall, the diversity of expertise provides a solid base for interdisciplinary research. However, gaining holistic insights into the Earth system requires the integration of observations, paleoclimate data, analysis tools and modeling. These different approaches of Earth system science are rooted in various disciplines that cut across a broad range of timescales. It is, therefore, necessary to link these disciplines at a relatively early stage in PhD programs. The linking of ‘data and modeling', as it is the special emphasis in our graduate school, enables graduate students from a variety of disciplines to cooperate and exchange views on the common theme of Earth system science, which leads to a better understanding of processes within a global context.

This open access book serves as a reference for the key elements and their significance of Klaus Hasselmann's work on climate science and on ocean wave research, all based on a rigorous and deeply physical thinking. It summarizes the original articles (mostly from the 1970 and 1980s; some of which are hard to find nowadays) and brings them in a present-day context. From 1975 until 2000, he was (founding) Director of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, which he made to one of the world-leading academic institutions. He first made the issue of anthropogenic climate change accessible to analysis and prediction and later transformed climate science into a significant factor in forming public policy. The book is written by co-workers and colleagues of Klaus Hasselmann, who—many under his immediate supervision—joined him in this effort. With this background, they present the key achievements and assess the significance of these for the present state of knowledge and scientific practice.

Principles of Geology explores the science about the solid Earth, the rocks that comprise it, and the processes by which they change over time.

Selected, peer reviewed papers from the Eleventh International Conference on Diffusion in Solids and Liquids (DSL-2015), June 22-26, 2015, NH München Messe, Germany

With increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, the extent of effects on the ocean and marine resources is an increasing concern. One aspect of this issue is the ongoing process, known as ocean acidification, whereby seawater becomes less alkaline as more CO2 dissolves in it, causing hydrogen ion concentration in seawater to increase. Scientists are concerned that increasing hydrogen ion concentration could reduce growth or even cause the death of shell-forming animals (e.g., corals, mollusks and certain planktonic organisms) as well as disrupt marine food webs and the reproductive physiology of certain species. While not yet fully understood, the ecological and economic consequences of ocean acidification could be substantial. Scientists are concerned that increasing hydrogen ion concentration in seawater could alter biogeochemical cycles, disrupt physiological processes of marine organisms and damage marine ecosystems. This book examines potential legislative action by Congress relating to authorizing, funding, and coordinating research to increase knowledge about ocean acidification and its potential effects on marine ecosystems.

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To understand the global warming mechanism, global mapping of primary production was carried out under the GCMAPS program. The program was concerned with marine and terrestrial environmental changes, which affect carbon cycle on the regional and global scales. On the regional scale, warm phase of ENSO (El Niño / Southern Oscillation) has been shown to affect economic activities in many countries. The keyword for understanding mechanism of global warming is'primary productivity'. The earth observation satellites (EOS) like the ADEOS of Japan, and the SeaWiFS, Sea Star and Terra of the U.S.A. provided much required data for modeling and verification of primary production estimates on both land and ocean.The knowledge gained during the GCMAPS program has been documented in this book. Interpretation of the data suggests that global warming, which causes temperature and sea level rise, and changes in climate and ecosystems, is likely to have the largest influence on mankind. The first half of this book discuss changes in marine environments. Physical and chemical oceanographic properties of the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans are presented. Changes in partial pressure of carbon dioxide, flux and composition of settling particles and biological communities in the surface ocean have also been discussed. In addition to this, over hundred years of environmental records based upon coral skeletons are presented. Estimations of primary production and its utilization in validating satellite imagery data were conducted in the western North Pacific. Primary productivity estimates based upon the validated satellite imagery are presented on the global scale. Climate change modeling of primary production in global oceans is also presented.The latter half of this book deals with changes in terrestrial environments. Primary productivity estimates for different types of ecosystems (e.g., forest, grassland) are presented together with soil carbon dynamics. Also, biomass and productivity estimation and environmental monitoring based upon remote sensing techniques are presented with a model analysis of the relationship between climate perturbations and carbon budget anomalies in global terrestrial ecosystems. This book elucidates integrated aspects of the global carbon cycle involving marine and terrestrial environments. - Discusses a current understanding of the biogeochemical processes on land and ocean - Provides global mapping of primary production based on satellite imagery data and modelling - Presents the latest interpretations of relationships between carbon cycle and climatic change

This title presents the systematization and description of accumulated knowledge on oceanic fronts of the Norwegian, Greenland, Barents and Bering Seas. The main fronts of the Norwegian, Greenland and Barents Seas are part of the climatic North Polar Frontal Zone (NPFZ). The work is based on numerous observational data, collected by the authors during special sea experiments directed at the investigation of physical processes and phenomena inside certain parts of the NPFZ and in the northern part of the Bering Sea, on archive data of the USSR Hydrometeocenter and other research institutions, as well as on a wide scientific literature published in Russian and Western editions. The book contains general information on the oceanic fronts of the Subarctic Seas, brief history of their investigation, state of the knowledge, as well as detailed description of the thermohaline structure of all frontal zones in the Norwegian, Greenland, Barents and Bering Seas and of neighboring fronts of Arctic and coastal origin. Special attention is given to the study of the multifrontal character of the NPFZ and of peculiarities of its internal structure at different locations, to the description of diverse oceanic features observed in the NPFZ, as well as to some characteristics of the horizontal and vertical fine structure of hydrophysical fields in the NPFZ. The main features of the northern Bering Sea's summer ecohydrodynamics are investigated with the help of three-dimensional direct and inverse models.

Against a background of extensive multi-disciplinary oceanographic investigations over a number of years, together with the long-term establishment of a Society and Institute, extensive information is available from studies undertaken in the estuarine and coastal waters of the Basque Country.The present authors gained access to unpublished literature and reports which, together with a synthesis of internationally-refereed papers, provide a series of scientific overviews of particular subject areas. Teams of researchers (from Basque Institutes and Universities) combine to present the present'state of knowledge', within a global context, of processes ranging from sub-seabed to air-sea interaction - incorporating data on the associated biology (including fisheries) and pollutant sources and levels. The latter are compared with regional, national and European legislation. The volume is divided into various sections: Introduction; Geography and Oceanography; Chemical Oceanography and Water Quality; Sediment Characteristics, Quality and Chemistry; Biomonitoring; Communities and Ecology; and Overall Assessment.The topics covered include: an historical review of marine research; the impact of human activities, during past centuries; geology, geomorphology and sediments; climate and meteorology; marine dynamics; hydrography; water mass characteristics; contaminants in the waters; microbiological quality; sedimentological characteristics; contaminants in sediments; biomonitoring of heavy metals and organic components, at tissue organism level and using cellular and molecular biomarkers; bacterioplankton and phytoplankton communities; zooplankton communities; benthic communities; seabirds; biodiversity and conservation; recovery of benthic communities; the polluted systems; and assessment of human impacts. On the basis of these syntheses, future challenges for marine research in the Basque Country are identified, in terms of a'Research Agenda'. This comprehensive text, relating to estuarine, coastal and oceanographic processes at wide-ranging spatial and temporal scales in the southern Bay of Biscay, will be of interest to researchers, engineers and legislators - on a regional basis and within a world-wide perspective.

Modelling of marine ecosystems is a rapidly developing branch of interdisciplinary oceanographic research. Introduction to the Modelling of Marine Ecosystems is the first consistent and comprehensive introduction to the development of models of marine ecosystems. It begins with simple first steps of modelling and develops more and more complex models. This step-by-step approach to increasing the complexity of the models is intended to allow students of biological oceanography and interested scientists with only limited experience in mathematical modelling to explore the theoretical framework and familiarize oneself with the methods. The book describes how biological model components can be integrated into three dimensional circulation models and how such models can be used for'numerical experiments'. The book illustrates the mathematical aspects of modelling and gives application examples. The tutorial aspect of the book is supported by a set of MATLAB programs, which are provided on an accompanying CD-Rom and which can be used to reproduce many of the results presented in the book. Also available in paperback, ISBN 0-444-51704-9

This proceedings 3rd EuroGOOS Conference on Building the European Capacity in Operational Oceanography is volume 69 in the Elsevier Oceanography Series. The topics of the proceedings cover: Regional Systems I, Remote Sensing Systems, Numerical Modelling and Data Assimilation, Next Generation Systems, EC Operational Forecasting Workshop: Reports on EC Operational Forecasting, In-Situ Monitoring, Waves Monitoring and ForecastingUser Perspectives, EuroGOOS Task Teams, Regional Systems 2, Coastal Systems, Data - Products - Users, and GMES Marine Forum.

Recent results from modeling and observational studies demonstrate that the tropical Atlantic is a critical region for processes that maintain the meridional overturning circulation, such as cross-equatorial exchanges, and for sea surface temperature variability that impacts on climate variability of the coupled tropical ocean/atmosphere system. The theme of this book is the inter-hemispheric and inter-gyre exchanges of heat, salt and fresh water, while its goal is to improve the knowledge of the tropical Atlantic dynamics and how it affects the global ocean. A clear understanding of the dynamics of processes that affect the flow of mass and heat between the southern and the northern hemispheres in the upper few hundred meters in the tropical Atlantic and of those associated to the ocean circulation or to surface signals, from decadal, inter-annual to mesoscale periods, becomes necessary to better evaluate their contribution to the interhemispheric mass exchange. These processes are believed to be largely responsible in driving the sea surface temperature, which in turn, is a critical parameter to investigate ocean-atmospheric interactions. Output produced by regional models is also used to complement the observations and to provide additional information on their spatial and temporal variability. The subtropical cells, by bringing water masses subducted in the subtropics to the equator, and zonal currents investigated here contribute to the interhemispheric water exchange. Special attention is also given to the warm and salty anticyclonic rings shed by the North Brazil Current, which are now known to have a much broader impact, not only on interhemispheric water mass transfer, but also on the environment of remote regions. Observations from different sources are blended together, are used to validate model outputs and are also assimilated into models to obtain a more complete and accurate picture of the oceanic circulation and of its time evolution.

This book unifies and enhances the accessibility of contemporary scholarly research on advances in coastal modeling. A comprehensive spectrum of innovative models addresses the wide diversity and multifaceted aspects of coastal research on the complex natural processes, dynamics, interactions and responses of the coastal supersystem and its associated subsystems. The twenty-one chapters, contributed by internationally recognized coastal experts from fourteen countries, provide invaluable insights on the recent advances and present state-of-the-art knowledge on coastal models which are essential for not only illuminating the governing coastal process and various characteristics, but also for understanding and predicting the dynamics at work in the coastal system. One of the unique strengths of the book is the impressive and encompassing presentation of current functional and operational coastal models for all those concerned with and interested in the modeling of seas, oceans and coasts. In addition to chapters modeling the dynamic natural processes of waves, currents, circulatory flows and sediment transport there are also chapters that focus on the modeling of beaches, shorelines, tidal basins and shore platforms. The substantial scope of the book is further strengthened with chapters concentrating on the effects of coastal structures on nearshore flows, coastal water quality, coastal pollution, coastal ecological modeling, statistical data modeling, and coupling of coastal models with geographical information systems.

The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) is an international programme for a permanent global framework of observations, modelling and analysis of ocean variables that are needed to support operational services around the world. The EuroGOOS strategy has two streams: the first is to improve the quality of marine information in European home waters, and the second is to collaborate with similar organisations in other continents to create a new global ocean observing and modelling system that will provide the open ocean forecasts needed to achieve the best possible performance by local marine information services everywhere. EuroGOOS held its second international conference in The Hague in 1999. Here, the operational services already in place in the EuroGOOS regions were presented and evaluated. In addition, a'Forward Look'was presented, with targets for the next 5-10 years. The proceedings of the first EuroGOOS conference were published by Elsevier in the /locate/inca/600827EOS Series No. 62 Editors: Stel et al, ISBN 0-444-82892-3.