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Examines how forecasts from the 'Survey of Professional Forecasters' survey respond to changes in monetary policy. Details on the forecasts; Comparison between the survey forecasts with reality; Findings and its implications.

Examines the economic history of 19 major countries since 1960 to analyze the advisability of reducing inflation. Costs of disinflation; Effects; Episodes of significant inflation declines resulting from tight monetary policy; Labor contracts and the cost of disinflation.

Describes what economists understand about inflation and what issues remain mysterious. The good news and the bad news about inflation; Inflation and the long run; What causes inflation; Short-run fluctuations in inflation; Conclusions.

This paper tests an intertemporal labor supply model for workers who say they face quantity constraints on their hours and for workers who say they do not. The data reject the model for the first group but not for the second. I conclude from this evidence that employment fluctuations result mainly from changes in the severity of constraints--that is, changes in involuntary unemployment--rather than intertemporal substitution. It also appears that liquidity constraints influence labor supply. Finally, the paper proposes a new approach to identifying intertemporal labor supply equations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]