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After the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, devising an effective reverse logistics supply chain to clean up disaster medical waste is conducive to controlling and containing novel coronavirus transmission. Thus, the focus of this paper concentrates on multi-period multi-type disaster medical waste location-transportation integrated optimization problem with the concern of sustainability, which is formulated as a tri-objective mixed-integer programming model with the goals of maximizing total economic benefits, minimizing total carbon emissions and total potential social risks. Then, a real-world case from Wuhan using CPLEX solver is used to validate the developed model. Results indicate that constructing DMWTTSs with flexible capacity in different periods is encouraged to handle the sharply increasing disaster medical waste. The multi-period decision model outperforms the single-period one in disaster medical waste supply chains because the former has the capability of handling the uncertainties in the future periods. Increasingly, since the increase of budget doesn't always work well and social resources are limited, the estimation of minimum budget to obtain optimum overall performance is of great importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The governments' isolation measures to contain the transmission of COVID-19 imposed a dilemma for the people at the bottom of the pyramid. Since these people have very unreliable sources of income, a dilemma arises: they must either work under risky conditions or refrain from work and suffer from income cuts. Emergency donations of food and cleaning supplies in a pandemic context might be overlooked by government and civil society actors. This paper aims to model the effects of donations on mitigating the negative effects of COVID-19 on vulnerable communities. Applying the system dynamics method, we simulated the behaviour of the pandemic in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) communities and the impacts that donations of food and cleaning supplies have in these settings. We administered surveys to the beneficiaries and local organisations responsible for the final distribution of donations to gather information from the field operations. The results show that increasing access to cleaning supplies in communities through donations can significantly reduce coronavirus transmission, particularly in high-density and low-resource areas, such as slums in urban settings. In addition, we also show that food donations can increase the vulnerable population's ability to afford necessities, alleviating the stress caused by the pandemic on this portion of the population. Therefore, this work helps decision-makers (such as government and non-governmental organisations) understand the impacts of donations on controlling outbreaks, especially under COVID-19 conditions, in a low-resource environment and, thus, aid these hard-to-reach populations in a pandemic setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As COVID-19 has spread rapidly, detection of the COVID-19 infection from radiology and radiography images is probably one of the quickest ways to diagnose the patients. Many researchers found the necessity to utilize chest X-ray and chest computed tomography imaging to diagnose COVID-19 infection. In this paper, our objective is to minimize the false negatives and false positives in the detection process. Reduction in the number of false negatives minimizes community spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reducing false positives help people avoid mental trauma and wasteful expenses. This paper proposes a novel weighted consensus model to minimize the number of false negatives and false positives without compromising accuracy. In the proposed novel weighted consensus model, the accuracy of individual classification models is normalized. While predicting, different models predict different classes, and the sum of the normalized accuracy for a particular class is then considered based on a predefined threshold value. We used traditional Machine Learning classification algorithms like Linear Regression, Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbours, Decision Tree, and Random Forest for the weighted consensus experimental evaluation. We predicted the classes, which provided better insights into the condition. The proposed model can perform as well as the existing state-of-the-art technique in terms of accuracy (99.64%) and reduce false negatives and false positives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions to the daily lives of individuals worldwide, with many losing their lives to the virus. Vaccination has been identified as a crucial strategy to combat the spread of a disease, but with a limited supply of vaccines, targeted blocking is becoming increasingly necessary. One such approach is to block a select group of individuals in the community to control the spread of the disease in its early stages. Therefore, in this paper, a method is proposed for solving this problem, based on the similarity between this issue and the problem of identifying super-spreader nodes. The proposed method attempts to select the minimum set of network nodes that, when removed, no large component remains in the network. To this end, the network is partitioned into various communities, and a method for limiting the spread of the disease to communities is proposed by blocking connecting nodes. Four real networks and four synthetics networks created using the LFR algorithm were used to evaluate the control of the disease by the selected set of nodes using each method, and the results obtained indicate better performance of the proposed method compared to other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a global health and humanitarian crisis that catastrophically affects many industries. To control the disease spread and restore normal lives, mass vaccination is considered the most effective way. However, the sustainable last-mile cold chain logistics operations of COVID-19 vaccines is a complex short-term planning problem that faces many practical challenges, e.g., low-temperature storage and transportation, supply uncertainty at the early stage, etc. To tackle these challenges, a two-stage decision-support approach is proposed in this paper, which integrates both route optimization and advanced simulation to improve the sustainable performance of last-mile vaccine cold chain logistics operations. Through a real-world case study in Norway during December 2020 and March 2021, the analytical results revealed that the logistics network structure, fleet size, and the composition of heterogeneous vehicles might yield significant impacts on the service level, transportation cost, and CO2 emissions of last-mile vaccine cold chain logistics operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions to the daily lives of individuals worldwide, with many losing their lives to the virus. Vaccination has been identified as a crucial strategy to combat the spread of a disease, but with a limited supply of vaccines, targeted blocking is becoming increasingly necessary. One such approach is to block a select group of individuals in the community to control the spread of the disease in its early stages. Therefore, in this paper, a method is proposed for solving this problem, based on the similarity between this issue and the problem of identifying super-spreader nodes. The proposed method attempts to select the minimum set of network nodes that, when removed, no large component remains in the network. To this end, the network is partitioned into various communities, and a method for limiting the spread of the disease to communities is proposed by blocking connecting nodes. Four real networks and four synthetics networks created using the LFR algorithm were used to evaluate the control of the disease by the selected set of nodes using each method, and the results obtained indicate better performance of the proposed method compared to other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dramatic increase in the number of outbreaks of dengue has recently been reported, and climate change is likely to extend the geographical spread of the disease. In this context, this paper shows how a neural network approach can incorporate dengue and COVID-19 data as well as external factors (such as social behaviour or climate variables), to develop predictive models that could improve our knowledge and provide useful tools for health policy makers. Through the use of neural networks with different social and natural parameters, in this paper we define a Correlation Model through which we show that the number of cases of COVID-19 and dengue have very similar trends. We then illustrate the relevance of our model by extending it to a Long short-term memory model (LSTM) that incorporates both diseases, and using this to estimate dengue infections via COVID-19 data in countries that lack sufficient dengue data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak rate of human coronaviruses (CoVs) especially highly pathogenic CoVs is increasing alarmingly. Early detection of these viruses allows treatment interventions to be provided more quickly to people at higher risk, as well as helping to identify asymptomatic carriers and isolate them as quickly as possible, thus preventing the disease transmission chain. The current diagnostic methods such as RT-PCR are not ideal due to high cost, low accuracy, low speed, and probability of false results. Therefore, a reliable and accurate method for the detection of CoVs in biofluids can become a front-line tool in order to deal with the spread of these deadly viruses. Currently, the nanomaterial-based sensing devices for detection of human coronaviruses from laboratory diagnosis to point-of-care (PoC) diagnosis are progressing rapidly. Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) have revolutionized the field of biosensors because of the outstanding optical and electrochemical properties. In this review paper, a detailed overview of AuNP-based biosensing strategies with the varied transducers (electrochemical, optical, etc.) and also different biomarkers (protein antigens and nucleic acids) was presented for the detection of human coronaviruses including SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1, and MERS-CoV and lowly pathogenic CoVs. The present review highlights the newest trends in the SARS-CoV-2 nanobiosensors from the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic until 2022. We hope that the presented examples in this review paper convince readers that AuNPs are a suitable platform for the designing of biosensors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The entire world has been affected by the outbreak of COVID-19 since early 2020. Human carriers are largely the spreaders of this new disease, and it spreads much faster compared to previously identified coronaviruses and other flu viruses. Although vaccines have been invented and released, it will still be a challenge to overcome this disease. To save lives, it is important to better understand how the virus is transmitted from one host to another and how future areas of infection can be predicted. Recently, the second wave of infection has hit multiple countries, and governments have implemented necessary measures to tackle the spread of the virus. We investigated the three phases of COVID-19 research through a selected list of mathematical modeling articles. To take the necessary measures, it is important to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease, and mathematical modeling has been considered a proven technique in predicting such dynamics. To this end, this paper summarizes all the available mathematical models that have been used in predicting the transmission of COVID-19. A total of nine mathematical models have been thoroughly reviewed and characterized in this work, so as to understand the intrinsic properties of each model in predicting disease transmission dynamics. The application of these nine models in predicting COVID-19 transmission dynamics is presented with a case study, along with detailed comparisons of these models. Toward the end of the paper, key behavioral properties of each model, relevant challenges and future directions are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global COVID-19 pandemic brought considerable public and policy attention to the field of infectious disease modelling. A major hurdle that modellers must overcome, particularly when models are used to develop policy, is quantifying the uncertainty in a model's predictions. By including the most recent available data in a model, the quality of its predictions can be improved and uncertainties reduced. This paper adapts an existing, large-scale, individual-based COVID-19 model to explore the benefits of updating the model in pseudo-real time. We use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to dynamically recalibrate the model's parameter values as new data emerge. ABC offers advantages over alternative calibration methods by providing information about the uncertainty associated with particular parameter values and the resulting COVID-19 predictions through posterior distributions. Analysing such distributions is crucial in fully understanding a model and its outputs. We find that forecasts of future disease infection rates are improved substantially by incorporating up-to-date observations and that the uncertainty in forecasts drops considerably in later simulation windows (as the model is provided with additional data). This is an important outcome because the uncertainty in model predictions is often overlooked when models are used in policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The health organizations around the world are currently facing one of the greatest challenges, to overcome the current global pandemic, COVID-19. It erupted in December 2019, in Wuhan City, China. It spreads rapidly throughout the world within couple of months. In this paper, the data of the COVID-19 have been collected, organized, analyzed and interpreted using the discrete-time model of SIR epidemic model. Moreover, results for several countries from different regions of the world have been obtained. Furthermore, comparative study has been carried out for the countries under consideration. The comparison was performed for the data of different countries on same dates of each month. However, the calculations are carried out for thirteen consecutive weeks, to investigate the rate of spread and the control of the disease in these countries. This guides us to some important concepts like factors favoring the spread of virus and those resisting the spread. Different regions are studied and their data have been evaluated to know which regions are the most effected. This study helps to know the important factors about the behavior of the coronavirus in different environments, such as lockdowns, temperatures, humidity and other restrictions. The proposed concepts and equations can be used to project the upcoming behavior of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the beginning of 2022 the global daily count of new cases of COVID-19 exceeded 3.2 million, a tripling of the historical peak value reported between the initial outbreak of the pandemic and the end of 2021. Aerosol transmission through interpersonal contact is the main cause of the disease's spread, although control measures have been put in place to reduce contact opportunities. Mobility pattern is a basic mechanism for understanding how people gather at a location and how long they stay there. Due to the inherent dependencies in disease transmission, models for associating mobility data with confirmed cases need to be individually designed for different regions and time periods. In this paper, we propose an autoregressive count data model under the framework of a generalized linear model to illustrate a process of model specification and selection. By evaluating a 14-day-ahead prediction from Sweden, the results showed that for a dense population region, using mobility data with a lag of 8 days is the most reliable way of predicting the number of confirmed cases in relative numbers at a high coverage rate. It is sufficient for both of the autoregressive terms, studied variable and conditional expectation, to take one day back. For sparsely populated regions, a lag of 10 days produced the lowest error in absolute value for the predictions, where weekly periodicity on the studied variable is recommended for use. Interventions were further included to identify the most relevant mobility categories. Statistical features were also presented to verify the model assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we consider the effect of heliogeophysical activity on the COVID-19 epidemic associated with the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in Moscow. An analysis of official data on the course of the pandemic has provided evidence of the effect of heliogeophysical activity on the spread of an infectious disease. The pandemic arose during the winter when solar activity was minimal and ultraviolet radiation was at its lowest. The study showed a significant relation between the infectious process and geomagnetic activity: periods of outbreaks in the number of infections and deaths correlated with periods of a decrease in geomagnetic activity lasting several months. The impact of magnetospheric storms and substorms on the human body during a pandemic is also considered. It is shown that, during the minimum of solar activity during periods of geomagnetic disturbances lasting from one to several days, both the number of infections and the number of deaths additionally and statistically significantly increase. Evidence of a direct or indirect effect of solar activity on the occurrence of outbreaks of infectious diseases is important from the viewpoint of understanding the emergence and development of epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of human mobility have been known to play a critical role in the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. In this paper, we present a simple compact way to model the transmission of infectious disease through transportation networks using widely available aggregate mobility data in the form of a zone-level origin-destination (OD) travel flow matrix. A key feature of our model is that it not only captures the propagation of infection via direct connections between zones (first-order effects) as in most existing studies but also transmission effects that are due to subsequent interactions in the remainder of the system (higher-order effects). We demonstrate the importance of capturing higher-order effects in a simulation study. We then apply our model to study the first wave of COVID-19 infections in (i) Italy, and, (ii) the New York Tri-State area. We use daily data on mobility between Italian provinces (province-level OD data) and between Tri-State Area counties (county-level OD data), and daily reported caseloads at the same geographical levels. Our empirical results indicate substantial predictive power, particularly during the early stages of the outbreak. Our model forecasts at least 85% of the spatial variation in observed weekly COVID-19 cases. Most importantly, our model delivers crucial metrics to identify target areas for intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper concerns a problem, the global pandemic COVID-19, which has influenced religious practices with respect to health protection across the Muslim world. Rapid transmission of the virus between people has become a serious challenge and a threat to the health protection of many countries. The increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in the Muslim community took place during and after the pilgrimages to Iran's Qom and as a result of the Jamaat Tabligh movement meetings. However, restrictions on religious practices have become a platform for political discussions, especially among Muslim clergy. This paper is an analysis of the religious and political situation in Muslim countries, showing the use of Islam to achieve specific goals by the authorities, even at the price of the health and life of citizens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In public health, social distancing is a set of non-pharmaceutical interventions or measures intended to prevent the spread of a contagious disease, by maintaining a physical distance between people. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization suggested the term, 'physical distancing,' as opposed to 'social distancing', arguing that it is a physical distance which prevents transmission; people can remain socially connected via technology. This paper discusses the concepts of social distance, social distancing, physical distancing, self-quarantine, self-isolation, symptomatic, asymptomatic and parasymptomatic cases as they relate to COVID-19 and African perception of pandemic diseases. Although the idea of social distancing is not novel to the Africans, but a challenge in its implementation is that historically, social distancing is rather applied to non-infectious cases like mental illness, epilepsy, infertility, aging, victims of sexual violence and the like. The paper utilizes health-related theories and pertinent empirical findings to explain African perspective of social distancing and the challenges of adoption in pandemic situations. The theories on health risk perception reviewed include the protection motivation theory, the health belief model, the extended parallel process model and the precaution adoption process model. From consumer psychology background on product adoption, a conceptual model for 'social distancing' adoption in pandemics was advanced. These ancient and novel health-related theories and models were applied to explain the erroneous understanding, perception and adoption challenges of social distancing in Africa, leading to possible increase in the spread of the coronavirus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Controlling the spreading of infectious diseases has been shown crucial in the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional contact tracing is used to detect newly infected individuals by tracing their previous contacts, and by selectively checking and isolating any individuals likely to have been infected. Digital contact tracing with the utilisation of smartphones was contrived as a technological aid to improve this manual, slow and tedious process. Nevertheless, despite the high hopes raised when smartphone-based contact tracing apps were introduced as a measure to reduce the spread of the COVID-19, their efficiency has been moderately low. In this paper, we propose a methodology for evaluating digital contact tracing apps, based on an epidemic model, which will be used not only to evaluate the deployed Apps against the COVID-19 but also to determine how they can be improved for future pandemics. Firstly, the model confirms the moderate effectiveness of the deployed digital contact tracing, confirming the fact that it could not be used as the unique measure to fight against the COVID-19, and had to be combined with additional measures. Secondly, several improvements are proposed (and evaluated) to increase the efficiency of digital control tracing to become a more useful tool in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the Covid 19 disease profile in the Algerian territory since February 25, 2020 to February 13, 2021. The idea is to develop a decision support system allowing public health decision and policy-makers to have future statistics (the daily prediction of parameters) of the pandemic; and also encourage citizens for conducting health protocols. Many studies applied traditional epidemic models or machine learning models to forecast the evolution of coronavirus epidemic, but the use of such models alone to make the prediction will be less precise. For this purpose, we assume that the spread of the coronavirus is a moving target described by an epidemic model. On the basis of a SIRD model (Susceptible-Infection-Recovery- Death), we applied the EKF algorithm to predict daily all parameters. These predicted parameters will be much beneficial to hospital managers for updating the available means of hospitalization (beds, oxygen concentrator, etc.) in order to reduce the mortality rate and the infected. Simulations carried out reveal that the EKF seems to be more efficient according to the obtained results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Controlling the spreading of infectious diseases has been shown crucial in the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditional contact tracing is used to detect newly infected individuals by tracing their previous contacts, and by selectively checking and isolating any individuals likely to have been infected. Digital contact tracing with the utilisation of smartphones was contrived as a technological aid to improve this manual, slow and tedious process. Nevertheless, despite the high hopes raised when smartphone-based contact tracing apps were introduced as a measure to reduce the spread of the COVID-19, their efficiency has been moderately low. In this paper, we propose a methodology for evaluating digital contact tracing apps, based on an epidemic model, which will be used not only to evaluate the deployed Apps against the COVID-19 but also to determine how they can be improved for future pandemics. Firstly, the model confirms the moderate effectiveness of the deployed digital contact tracing, confirming the fact that it could not be used as the unique measure to fight against the COVID-19, and had to be combined with additional measures. Secondly, several improvements are proposed (and evaluated) to increase the efficiency of digital control tracing to become a more useful tool in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to slow the spread of the CoViD-19 pandemic, governments around the world have enacted a wide set of policies limiting the transmission of the disease. Initially, these focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions; more recently, vaccinations and large-scale rapid testing have started to play a major role. The objective of this study is to explain the quantitative effects of these policies on determining the course of the pandemic, allowing for factors like seasonality or virus strains with different transmission profiles. To do so, the study develops an agent-based simulation model, which explicitly takes into account test demand and behavioral changes following positive tests. The model is estimated using data for the second and the third wave of the CoViD-19 pandemic in Germany. The paper finds that during a period where vaccination rates rose from 5 to 40%, seasonality and rapid testing had the largest effect on reducing infection numbers. Frequent large-scale rapid testing should remain part of strategies to contain CoViD-19; it can substitute for many non-pharmaceutical interventions that come at a much larger cost to individuals, society, and the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported high number of positive cases and deaths, while some reported lower COVID-19 related cases and death. In this paper, the factors that could affect the risk of COVID-19 infection and death were analyzed in county level. An innovative method by using K-means clustering and several classification models is utilized to determine the most critical factors. Results showed that longitudinal coordinate and population density, latitudinal coordinate, percentage of non-white people, percentage of uninsured people, percent of people below poverty, percentage of Elderly people, number of ICU beds per 10,000 people, percentage of smokers were the most significant attributes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European countries struggled to fight against the second and the third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategy widely adopted over the summer and early fall 2020 failed to contain the spread of the disease effectively. This paper sheds light on the effectiveness of such a strategy in two European countries (Spain and Italy) by analysing data from June to December 2020, collected via a large-scale online citizen survey with 95,251 and 43,393 answers in Spain and Italy, respectively. Our analysis describes several weaknesses in each of the three pillars of the TTI strategy: Test, Trace, and Isolate. We find that 40% of respondents had to wait more than 48 hours to obtain coronavirus tests results, while literature has shown that a delay of more than one day might make tracing all cases inefficient. We also identify limitations in the manual contact tracing capabilities in both countries, as only 29% of respondents in close contact with a confirmed infected individual reported having been contact traced. Moreover, our analysis shows that more than 45% of respondents report being unable to self-isolate if needed. We also analyse the mitigation strategies deployed to contain the second wave of coronavirus. We find that these interventions were particularly effective in Italy, where close contacts were reduced by more than 20% in the general population. Finally, we analyse the participants' perceptions about the coronavirus risk associated with different daily activities. We observe that they are often gender- and age-dependent, and not aligned with the actual risk identified by the literature. This finding emphasises the importance of deploying public-health communication campaigns to debunk misconceptions about SARS-CoV-2. Overall, our work illustrates the value of online citizen surveys to quickly and efficiently collect large-scale population data to support and evaluate policy decisions to combat the spread of infectious diseases, such as coronavirus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the absence of an effective vaccine or drug therapy, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the only option for control of the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019, a pandemic with global implications. Each of the over 200 countries affected has followed its own path in dealing with the crisis, making it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of measures implemented, either individually, or collectively. In this paper we analyse the case of the south Indian state of Kerala, which received much attention in the international media for its actions in containing the spread of the disease in the early months of the pandemic, but later succumbed to a second wave. We use a model to study the trajectory of the disease in the state during the first four months of the outbreak. We then use the model for a retrospective analysis of measures taken to combat the spread of the disease, to evaluate their impact. Because of the differences in the trajectory of the outbreak in Kerala, we argue that it is a model worthy of a place in the discussion on how the world might best handle this and other, future, pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 outbreaks have had high mortality in low- and middle-income countries such as Ecuador. Human mobility is an important factor influencing the spread of diseases possibly leading to a high burden of disease at the country level. Drastic control measures, such as complete lockdown, are effective epidemic controls, yet in practice one hopes that a partial shutdown would suffice. It is an open problem to determine how much mobility can be allowed while controlling an outbreak. In this paper, we use statistical models to relate human mobility to the excess death in Ecuador while controlling for demographic factors. The mobility index provided by GRANDATA, based on mobile phone users, represents the change of number of out-of-home events with respect to a benchmark date (March 2nd, 2020). The study confirms the global trend that more men are dying than expected compared to women, and that people under 30 show less deaths than expected, particularly individuals younger than 20 with a death rate reduction between 22 and 27%. The weekly median mobility time series shows a sharp decrease in human mobility immediately after a national lockdown was declared on March 17, 2020 and a progressive increase towards the pre-lockdown level within two months. Relating median mobility to excess deaths shows a lag in its effect: first, a decrease in mobility in the previous two to three weeks decreases excess death and, more novel, we found an increase of mobility variability four weeks prior increases the number of excess deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising temperature levels during spring and summer are often argued to enable lifting of strict containment measures even in the absence of herd immunity. Despite broad scholarly interest in the relationship between weather and coronavirus spread, previous studies come to very mixed results. To contribute to this puzzle, the paper examines the impact of weather on the COVID-19 pandemic using a unique granular dataset of over 1.2 million daily observations covering over 3700 counties in nine countries for all seasons of 2020. Our results show that temperature and wind speed have a robust negative effect on virus spread after controlling for a range of potential confounding factors. These effects, however, are substantially larger during mealtimes, as well as in periods of high mobility and low containment, suggesting an important role for social behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To support public health policymakers in Connecticut, we developed a flexible county-structured compartmental SEIR-type model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease progression. Our goals were to provide projections of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, and estimates of important features of disease transmission and clinical progression. In this paper, we outline the model design, implementation and calibration, and describe how projections and estimates were used to meet the changing requirements of policymakers and officials in Connecticut from March 2020 to February 2021. The approach takes advantage of our unique access to Connecticut public health surveillance and hospital data and our direct connection to state officials and policymakers. We calibrated this model to data on deaths and hospitalizations and developed a novel measure of close interpersonal contact frequency to capture changes in transmission risk over time and used multiple local data sources to infer dynamics of time-varying model inputs. Estimated epidemiologic features of the COVID-19 epidemic in Connecticut include the effective reproduction number, cumulative incidence of infection, infection hospitalization and fatality ratios, and the case detection ratio. We conclude with a discussion of the limitations inherent in predicting uncertain epidemic trajectories and lessons learned from one year of providing COVID-19 projections in Connecticut. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Online social network is one of the most prominent media that holds information about society's epidemic problem. Due to privacy reasons, most of the users will not disclose their location. Detecting the location of the tweet users is required to track the geographic location of the spreading diseases. This work aims to detect the spreading location of the COVID-19 disease from the Twitter users and content discussed in the tweet. COVID-19 is a disease caused by the "novel coronavirus." About 80% of confirmed cases recover from the disease. However, one out of every six people who get COVID-19 can become seriously ill, stated by the World health organization. Inferring the user location for identifying the spreading location for the disease is a very challenging task. This paper proposes a new technique based on a hypergraph model to detect the Twitter user's locations based on the spreading disease. This model uses hypergraph with weighting factor technique to infer the spreading disease's spatial location. The accuracy of prediction can be improved when a massive volume of streaming data is analyzed. The Helly property of the hypergraph was applied to discard less potential words from the text analysis, which claims this work of unique nature. A weighting factor was introduced to calculate the score of each location for a particular user. The location of each user is predicted based on the one that possesses the highest weighting factor. The proposed framework has been evaluated and tested for various measures like precision, recall and F-measure. The promising results obtained have substantiated the claim for this work compared to the state-of-the-art methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]