The past four years have been chaotic for US agriculture. Trade wars, initiated by the Donald Trump administration in 2017, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic have led to volatile domestic and international market conditions and considerable uncertainty about future prices and farm businesses' financial situations. In response to lower prices resulting from lost access to international markets and, on a shorter-term basis, pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, the Trump administration responded by sending unprecedented amounts of ad hoc disaster relief aid to farmers through two Market Facilitation Programs and the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program. However, the United States may well be on the cusp of major changes in agricultural policy, given the Joe Biden administration's priorities, an upcoming farm bill (2023), and major changes in the leadership of key congressional committees, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the Environmental Protection Agency. Despite the pandemic and market disruptions caused by trade disputes between the US and other countries, perhaps paradoxically the US farm sector is currently in a strong financial position compared to the rest of the economy and enjoys the prospect of higher commodity prices in 2021. Adjusting for inflation, farm income measures are well above their long-run average levels, mainly because of exceptionally large ad hoc government payments farmers received in 2020, although even without those payments farm incomes would be at about their long-run average levels. Before 2018, ad hoc farm subsidy payments were modest, averaging about $2 billion a year between 2010 and 2017. They increased to about $6 billion in 2018, $15.6 billion in 2019, and then catapulted to $35 billion in 2020. As a result, overall annual government spending on farm subsidies in 2019 and 2020 averaged $41 billion, including a record $52 billion in 2020, more than triple annual average government spending of less than $15 billion from 2014 to 2018. In 2020, government payments were anticipated to account for 39 percent of all net farm income, higher than any of the previous 20 years. At the same time, farm solvency measures and bankruptcies are well below the levels they were at during the farm financial crisis in the mid-1980s. In 2018, the most recent year for which data on financial stress conditions are available, the percentage of US farms and ranches facing severe financial stress was at about 2.8 percent. Given that financial stress is closely related to farm income, that proportion was almost certainly lower at the end of 2020, indicating that remarkably few farms are currently dealing with severe financial stress. Not all subsectors of the US agricultural economy are in the same financial situation, although financial stress rates are lower than in the rest of the economy, even among those subsectors. In 2018, the proportion of farms experiencing severe financial stress was higher among farms specializing in the production of milk (7.9 percent), cotton (6.3 percent), and corn and soybeans (4.2 percent). In these groups, crop farmers with close to medium revenues from farm sales were more likely to face higher levels of financial stress. Among all crop producers, the largest 10 percent of crop farmers experienced financial stress at much lower rates. Among livestock farms and ranches, larger operations were more likely to experience higher levels of financial stress, but among livestock operations, the overall rate of financial stress (about 1.7 percent), was low. The current health of the farm sector suggests there is little need for additional support through ad hoc and other supplementary government subsidy programs. Over the past 20 years, except for 2019 and 2020, farm businesses have received an annual average of about $16 billion taxpayer-funded payments under a wide range of programs. Most of these subsidies have been authorized through successive farm bills. Outlays under some of those programs have been relatively stable, including payments made under direct, price, and income support initiatives and conservation programs. Under other programs, such as federal crop insurance, net payments are more volatile because they are generally triggered by unpredictable severe weather conditions. Nevertheless, the surge in total government farm subsidies between 2018 and 2020 was almost solely because of the extraordinarily large trade war and pandemic ad hoc compensation programs. The Biden administration will inherit the current suite of policies authorized by the 2018 Farm Bill that likely will not be modified until a new farm bill is authorized in 2023. Implementing major changes in agricultural policies is complicated by many factors, including existing trade arrangements, current production practices, supply chains, and the considerable influence of political interest groups, such as the American Farm Bureau Federation and the Environmental Defense Fund, that often lead to support for larger farm subsidies. Nevertheless, while political considerations will remain a powerful driving force for many current and future agricultural policy initiatives, fundamental economic concerns should play a key role in evaluating proposals for new programs and changes to current policies. To that end, future policies should focus on (1) moving toward more efficient markets, (2) complying with current trade obligations and expanding access to overseas markets, (3) optimally providing public goods such as research and development (R&D), and (4) addressing negative externalities such as emissions of toxic chemicals, greenhouse gases, and soil erosion. The Biden administration has already identified three key areas of emphasis for agricultural policy: (1) responding to climate change, (2) investing in R&D, and (3) increasing trade liberalization. It is unlikely that major changes to market-distorting farm income payments (e.g., crop insurance premium subsidies) will be implemented before or even in the 2023 Farm Bill. However, proposed increases in public investments in agricultural R&D, an increased emphasis on conservation programs, a return to liberalizing international trade, and increased access to overseas markets could help transition the farm economy away from its current reliance on ad hoc disaster aid to a more market-oriented industry., The United States is on the cusp of major changes in the political and economic environment in which, over the next four years, Congress and the Joe Biden administration will [...]