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It is becoming increasingly popular to elicit informative priors on the basis of historical data. Popular existing priors, including the power prior, commensurate prior, and robust meta-analytic prior provide blanket discounting. Thus, if only a subset of participants in the historical data are exchangeable with the current data, these priors may not be appropriate. In order to combat this issue, propensity score (PS) approaches have been proposed. However, PS approaches are only concerned with the covariate distribution, whereas exchangeability is typically assessed with parameters pertaining to the outcome. In this paper, we introduce the latent exchangeability prior (LEAP), where observations in the historical data are classified into exchangeable and non-exchangeable groups. The LEAP discounts the historical data by identifying the most relevant subjects from the historical data. We compare our proposed approach against alternative approaches in simulations and present a case study using our proposed prior to augment a control arm in a phase 3 clinical trial in plaque psoriasis with an unbalanced randomization scheme.

The beyond mean-field approach for low-lying hypernuclear states is extended by mixing the configurations associated with both single-particle and quadrupole-octupole collective excitations within the generator coordinate method based on a covariant density functional theory. The method is demonstrated in the application to the low-lying states of $^{21}_\Lambda$Ne, where the configurations with the $\Lambda$ hyperon occupying the first ($\Lambda_s$) and second ($\Lambda_p$) lowest-energy states are considered. The results indicate that the positive-parity states are dominated by the $\alpha+^{12}$C+$\alpha+\Lambda_s$ structure. In contrast, the low-lying negative-parity states are dominated by a strong admixture of $\alpha+^{16}$O+$\Lambda_s$ structure and $\alpha+^{12}$C+$\alpha+\Lambda_p$ structure due to the inclusion of octupole correlations. As a result, the low-lying negative-parity states become much lower than what is expected from the previous studies without the mixing, and the electric multipole transition strengths are significantly quenched., Comment: 9 pages with 5 figures and 2 tables

Surface plasmons in graphene provide a compelling strategy for advanced photonic technologies thanks to their tight confinement, fast response and tunability. Recent advances in the field of all optical generation of graphene plasmons in planar waveguides offer a promising method for high speed signal processing in nanoscale integrated optoelectronic devices. Here, we use two counter propagating frequency combs with temporally synchronized pulses to demonstrate deterministic all optical generation and electrical control of multiple plasmon polaritons, excited via difference frequency generation (DFG). Electrical tuning of a hybrid graphene fibre device offers a precise control over the DFG phase matching, leading to tunable responses of the graphene plasmons at different frequencies across a broadband (0 - 50 THz) and provides a powerful tool for high speed logic operations. Our results offer insights for plasmonics on hybrid photonic devices based on layered materials and pave the way to high speed integrated optoelectronic computing circuits.

Spectroscopy is a well-established nonintrusive tool that has played an important role in identifying substances and quantifying their compositions, from quantum descriptions to chemical and biomedical diagnostics. Challenges exist in accurate measurements in dynamic environments, especially for understanding chemical reactions in arbitrary free-space. We develop a distributed free-space spectroscopy realized by a comb-referenced frequency-scanning single-photon lidar, providing multidimensional (time-range-spectrum) remote sensing. A continuous field experiment over 72 hours is deployed to obtain the spectra of multiple molecules (CO2 and HDO) in free-space over 6 km, with a range resolution of 60 m and a time resolution of 10 min over a spectrum span of 30 GHz. The CO2 and HDO concentrations are retrieved from the spectra acquired. This distributed free-space spectroscopy holds much promise for increasing knowledge of atmospheric environments and chemistry research, especially for complex molecular spectra evolution in any location over large areas., Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures

Determining the extent to which a patient is benefiting from cancer therapy is challenging. Criteria for quantifying the extent of "tumor response" observed within a few cycles of treatment have been established for various types of solid as well as hematologic malignancies. These measures comprise the primary endpoints of phase II trials. Regulatory approvals of new cancer therapies, however, are usually contingent upon the demonstration of superior overall survival with randomized evidence acquired with a phase III trial comparing the novel therapy to an appropriate standard of care treatment. With nearly two thirds of phase III oncology trials failing to achieve statistically significant results, researchers continue to refine and propose new surrogate endpoints. This article presents a Bayesian framework for studying relationships among treatment, patient subgroups, tumor response and survival. Combining classical components of mediation analysis with Bayesian model averaging (BMA), the methodology is robust to model mis-specification among various possible relationships among the observable entities. Posterior inference is demonstrated via application to a randomized controlled phase III trial in metastatic colorectal cancer. Moreover, the article details posterior predictive distributions of survival and statistical metrics for quantifying the extent of direct and indirect, or tumor response mediated, treatment effects., Comment: 25 pages, 3 figures and 3 tables in the main manuscript. Supplementary materials included

Spin is a fundamental yet nontrivial intrinsic angular-momentum property of quantum particles or fields, which appears within relativistic field theory. The spin density in wave fields is described by the theoretical Belinfante-Rosenfeld construction based on the difference between the canonical and kinetic momentum densities. These quantities are usually considered as abstract and non-observable per se. Here, we demonstrate, both theoretically and experimentally, that the Belinfante-Rosenfeld construction naturally arises in gravity (water surface) waves. There, the canonical momentum is associated with the generalized Stokes-drift phenomenon, while the spin is generated by subwavelength circular motion of water particles. Thus, we directly observe these fundamental field-theory properties as microscopic mechanical properties of a classical wave system. Our findings shed light onto the nature of spin and momentum in wave fields, demonstrate the universality of relativistic field-theory concepts, and offer a new platform for their studies., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

Basket designs are prospective clinical trials that are devised with the hypothesis that the presence of selected molecular features determine a patient's subsequent response to a particular "targeted" treatment strategy. Basket trials are designed to enroll multiple clinical subpopulations to which it is assumed that the therapy in question offers beneficial efficacy in the presence of the targeted molecular profile. The treatment, however, may not offer acceptable efficacy to all subpopulations enrolled. Moreover, for rare disease settings, such as oncology wherein these trials have become popular, marginal measures of statistical evidence are difficult to interpret for sparsely enrolled subpopulations. Consequently, basket trials pose challenges to the traditional paradigm for trial design, which assumes inter-patient exchangeability. The R-package \pkg{basket} facilitates the analysis of basket trials by implementing multi-source exchangeability models. By evaluating all possible pairwise exchangeability relationships, this hierarchical modeling framework facilitates Bayesian posterior shrinkage among a collection of discrete and pre-specified subpopulations. Analysis functions are provided to implement posterior inference of the response rates and all possible exchangeability relationships between subpopulations. In addition, the package can identify "poolable" subsets of and report their response characteristics. The functionality of the package is demonstrated using data from an oncology study with subpopulations defined by tumor histology., Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, submitted to the Journal of Open Source Software

We develop both relativistic mean field and beyond approaches for hypernuclei with possible quadrupole-octupole deformation or pear-like shapes based on relativistic point-coupling energy density functionals. The symmetries broken in the mean-field states are recovered with parity, particle-number, and angular momentum projections. We take $^{21}_\Lambda$Ne as an example to illustrate the method, where the $\Lambda$ hyperon is put on one of the two lowest-energy orbits (labeled as $\Lambda_s, \Lambda_p$), respectively. We find that the $\Lambda$ hyperon in both cases disfavors the formation of a reflection-asymmetric molecular-like $^{16}$O$+\alpha$ structure in $^{20}$Ne, which is consistent with the Nilsson diagram for the hyperon in $(\beta_2, \beta_3)$ deformation plane. In particular, we show that the negative-parity states with the configuration $^{20}$Ne($K^\pi=0^-)\otimes \Lambda_s$ are close in energy to those with the configuration $^{20}$Ne($K^\pi=0^+)\otimes \Lambda_p$, even though they have very different structures. The $\Lambda_s$ ($\Lambda_p$) becomes more and more concentrated around the bottom (top) of the "pear" with the increase of octupole deformation., Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, to be published in SCIENCE CHINA Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy (2019)

We perform a coupled-channels study of the low-lying states in $^{13,15,17,19}_{~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\Lambda}$C with a covariant energy density functional based microscopic particle-core coupling model. The energy differences of $1/2^-$ and $3/2^-$ states in $^{13}_\Lambda$C and $^{15}_\Lambda$C are predicted to be 0.25 MeV and 0.34 MeV, respectively. We find that configuration mixings in the $1/2^-$ and $3/2^-$ states of $^{15}_\Lambda$C are the weakest among those of $^{13,15,17,19}_{~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\Lambda}$C. It indicates that $^{15}_\Lambda$C provides the best candidate among the carbon hypernuclei to study the spin-orbit splitting of $p_\Lambda$ hyperon state., Comment: 5 pages with two figures and three tables, SCIENCE CHINA Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy, 2017

We study the generation of 2D turbulence in Faraday waves by investigating the creation of spatially periodic vortices in this system. Measurements which couple a diffusing light imaging technique and particle tracking algorithms allow the simultaneous observation of the three-dimensional fluid motion and of the temporal changes in the wave field topography. Quasi-standing waves are found to coexist with a spatially extended fluid transport. More specifically, the destruction of regular patterns of oscillons coincides with the emergence of a complex fluid motion whose statistics are similar to that of two-dimensional turbulence. We reveal that a lattice of oscillons generates vorticity at the oscillon scale in the horizontal flow. The interaction of these vortices explain how 2D turbulence is fueled by almost standing waves. Remarkably, the curvature of Lagrangian trajectories reveals a "footprint" of the forcing scale vortices in fully developed turbulence. 2D Navier-Stokes turbulence should be considered a source of disorder in Faraday waves. These findings also provide a new paradigm for vorticity creation in 2D flows.

We report new measurements of single particle dispersion in turbulent two-dimensional (2D) flows. Laboratory experiments in electromagnetically driven and Faraday wave driven turbulence reveal a transition from weakly dispersing superdiffusive regime to strongly dispersing Brownian diffusion as the flow energy is increased in a broad range. The transition to fully developed 2D turbulence is characterized by the topological changes in the fluid particle trajectories and the development of self-similar diffusion. The degree of 2D turbulence development can be quantified by a parameter describing the deviation of single particle dispersion from the Taylor dispersion., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures

We report the generation of large coherent vortices via inverse energy cascade in Faraday wave driven turbulence. The motion of floaters in the Faraday waves is three dimensional but its horizontal velocity fluctuations show unexpected similarity with two-dimensional turbulence. The inverse cascade is detected by measuring frequency spectra of the Lagrangian velocity, and it is confirmed by computing the third moment of the horizontal velocity fluctuations. This is observed in deep water in a broad range of wavelengths. The results broaden the scope of recent findings on Faraday waves in thin layers [A. von Kameke, \textit{et al.}, \textit{Phys. Rev. Lett.} \textbf{107}, 074502 (2011)]., Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures

Here we report the first evidence of the inverse energy cascade in a flow dominated by 3D motions. Experiments are performed in thick fluid layers where turbulence is driven electromagnetically. It is shown that if the free surface of the layer is not perturbed, the top part of the layer behaves as quasi-2D and supports the inverse energy cascade regardless of the layer thickness. Well below the surface the cascade survives even in the presence of strong 3D eddies developing when the layer depth exceeds half the forcing scale. In a bounded flow at low bottom dissipation, the inverse energy cascade leads to the generation of a spectral condensate below the free surface. Such coherent flow can destroy 3D eddies in the bulk of the layer and enforce the flow planarity over the entire layer thickness., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures

The dimensionality of turbulence in fluid layers determines their properties. We study electromagnetically driven flows in finite depth fluid layers and show that eddy viscosity, which appears as a result of three-dimensional motions, leads to increased bottom damping. The anomaly coefficient, which characterizes the deviation of damping from the one derived using a quasi-two-dimensional model, can be used as a measure of the flow dimensionality. Experiments in turbulent layers show that when the anomaly coefficient becomes high, the turbulent inverse energy cascade is suppressed. In the opposite limit turbulence can self-organize into a coherent flow., Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures

Formation of turbulence of capillary waves is studied in laboratory experiments. The spectra show multiple exponentially decreasing harmonics of the parametrically excited wave which nonlinearly broaden with the increase in forcing. Spectral broadening leads to the development of the spectral continuum which scales as $\propto f^{-2.8}$, in agreement with the weak turbulence theory (WTT) prediction. Modulation instability of capillary waves is shown to be responsible for the transition from discrete to broadband spectrum. The instability leads to spectral broadening of the harmonics, randomization of their phases, it isolates the wave field from the wall, eventually allows the transition from 4- to 3-wave interactions as the dominant nonlinear process, thus creating the prerequisites assumed in WTT., Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures

We report the first observation of extreme wave events (rogue waves) in parametrically driven capillary waves. Rogue waves are observed above a certain threshold in forcing. Above this threshold, frequency spectra broaden and develop exponential tails. For the first time we present evidence of strong four-wave coupling in non-linear waves (high tricoherence), which points to modulation instability as the main mechanism in rogue waves. The generation of rogue waves is identified as the onset of a distinct tail in the probability density function of the wave heights. Their probability is higher than expected from the measured wave background., Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures

We present new experimental results on the transition from the coherent-phase to the random-phase three-wave interactions in capillary waves under parametric excitation. Above the excitation threshold, coherent wave harmonics spectrally broaden. An increase in the pumping amplitude increases spectral widths of wave harmonics and eventually causes a strong decrease in the degree of the three-wave phase coupling. The results point to the modulation instability of capillary waves, which leads to breaking of continuous waves into ensembles of short-lived wavelets or envelope solitons, as the reason for the phase randomization of three-wave interactions., Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, accepted 17July09 for publication in PRL

We present experimental results on turbulence generated in thin fluid layers in the presence of a large-scale coherent flow, or a spectral condensate. It is shown that the condensate modifies the third-order velocity moment in a much wider interval of scales than the second one. The modification may include the change of sign of the third moment in the inverse cascade. This observation may help resolve a controversy on the energy flux in mesoscale atmospheric turbulence (10-500 km): to recover a correct energy flux from the third velocity moment one needs first to subtract the coherent flow. We find that the condensate also increases the velocity flatness., Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures

Measurements of atmospheric winds in the mesoscale range (10-500 km) reveal remarkably universal spectra with the $k^{-5/3}$ power law. Despite initial expectations of the inverse energy cascade, as in two-dimensional (2D) turbulence, measurements of the third velocity moment in atmosphere, suggested a direct energy cascade. Here we propose a possible solution to this controversy by accounting for the presence of a large-scale coherent flow, or a spectral condensate. We present new experimental laboratory data and show that the presence of a large-scale shear flow modifies the third-order velocity moment in spectrally condensed 2D turbulence, making it, in some conditions, similar to that observed in the atmosphere., Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures

We report the first experimental observation of stationary zonal flows in the pedestal region of the H-mode plasma in the H-1 toroidal heliac. Strong peaks in E_r shear mark the top and foot of the density pedestal. Strong m=n=0 low-frequency (f < 0.6 kHz) zonal flows are observed in regions of increased E_r, suggesting substantial contribution of zonal flows to the spatial modulation of E_r radial profiles. Radial localization of zonal flows is correlated with a region of zero magnetic shear and low-order (7/5) rational surfaces., Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures

Transitions from turbulence to order are studied experimentally in thin fluid layers and magnetically confined toroidal plasma. It is shown that turbulence self-organizes through the mechanism of spectral condensation. The spectral redistribution of the turbulent energy leads to the reduction in the turbulence level, generation of coherent flow, reduction in the particle diffusion and increase in the system's energy. The higher order state is sustained via the nonlocal spectral coupling of the linearly unstable spectral range to the large-scale mean flow. The similarity of self-organization in two-dimensional fluids and low-to-high confinement transitions in plasma suggests the universality of the mechanism., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures

In order to study the Sigma-nucleus optical potential, we measured inclusive (pi^-,K^+) spectra on medium-to-heavy nuclear targets: CH_2, Si, Ni, In and Bi. The CH_2 target was used to calibrate the excitation energy scale by using the elementary process p + pi^- -> K^+ + Sigma^-, where the C spectrum was also extracted. The calibration was done with +-0.1 MeV precision. The angular distribution of the elementary cross section was measured, and agreed well with the previous bubble chamber data, but with better statistics, and the magnitudes of the cross sections of the measured inclusive (pi^-,K^+) spectra were also well calibrated. All of the inclusive spectra were found to be similar in shape at a region near to the Sigma^- binding energy threshold, showing a weak mass-number dependence on the magnitude of the cross section. The measured spectra were compared with a theoretical calculation performed within the framework of the Distorted Wave Impulse Approximation (DWIA). It has been demonstrated that a strongly repulsive \sig-nucleus potential with a non-zero size of the imaginary part is required to reproduce the shape of the measured spectra., Comment: 21 pages, 24 figures, submitted to PRC