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Improved polarization measurements at frequencies below 70 GHz with degree-level angular resolution are crucial for advancing our understanding of the Galactic synchrotron radiation and the potential polarized anomalous microwave emission and ultimately benefiting the detection of primordial $B$ modes. In this study, we present sensitivity-improved 40 GHz polarization maps obtained by combining the CLASS 40 GHz and WMAP $Q$-band data through a weighted average in the harmonic domain. The decision to include WMAP $Q$-band data stems from similarities in the bandpasses. Leveraging the accurate large-scale measurements from WMAP $Q$ band and the high-sensitivity information from CLASS 40 GHz band at intermediate scales, the noise level at $\ell\in[30, 100]$ is reduced by a factor of $2-3$ in the map space. A pixel domain analysis of the polarized synchrotron spectral index ($\beta_s$) using WMAP $K$ band and the combined maps (mean and 16/84th percentile across the $\beta_s$ map: $-3.08_{-0.20}^{+0.20}$) reveals a stronger preference for spatial variation (PTE for a uniform $\beta_s$ hypothesis smaller than 0.001) than the results obtained using WMAP $K$ and $Ka$ bands ($-3.08_{-0.14}^{+0.14}$). The cross-power spectra of the combined maps follow the same trend as other low-frequency data, and validation through simulations indicates negligible bias introduced by the combination method (sub-percent level in the power spectra). The products of this work are publicly available on $\mathtt{LAMBDA}$., Comment: 19 pages, 16 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in ApJ

The potential for a large, diverse population to coexist peacefully is thought to depend on the existence of a ``shared reality:'' a public sphere in which participants are exposed to similar facts about similar topics. A generation ago, broadcast television news was widely considered to serve this function; however, since the rise of cable news in the 1990s, critics and scholars have worried that the corresponding fragmentation and segregation of audiences along partisan lines has caused this shared reality to be lost. Here we examine this concern using a unique combination of data sets tracking the production (since 2012) and consumption (since 2016) of television news content on the three largest cable and broadcast networks respectively. With regard to production, we find strong evidence for the ``loss of shared reality hypothesis:'' while broadcast continues to cover similar topics with similar language, cable news networks have become increasingly distinct, both from broadcast news and each other, diverging both in terms of content and language. With regard to consumption, we find more mixed evidence: while broadcast news has indeed declined in popularity, it remains the dominant source of news for roughly 50\% more Americans than does cable; moreover, its decline, while somewhat attributable to cable, appears driven more by a shift away from news consumption altogether than a growth in cable consumption. We conclude that shared reality on US television news is indeed diminishing, but is more robust than previously thought and is declining for somewhat different reasons.

The dynamic atmosphere imposes challenges to ground-based cosmic microwave background observation, especially for measurements on large angular scales. The hydrometeors in the atmosphere, mostly in the form of clouds, scatter the ambient thermal radiation and are known to be the main linearly polarized source in the atmosphere. This scattering-induced polarization is significantly enhanced for ice clouds due to the alignment of ice crystals under gravity, which are also the most common clouds seen at the millimeter-astronomy sites at high altitudes. This work presents a multifrequency study of cloud polarization observed by the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) experiment on Cerro Toco in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile, from 2016 to 2022, at the frequency bands centered around 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz. Using a machine-learning-assisted cloud classifier, we made connections between the transient polarized emission found in all four frequencies with the clouds imaged by monitoring cameras at the observing site. The polarization angles of the cloud events are found to be mostly $90^\circ$ from the local meridian, which is consistent with the presence of horizontally aligned ice crystals. The 90 and 150 GHz polarization data are consistent with a power law with a spectral index of $3.90\pm0.06$, while an excess/deficit of polarization amplitude is found at 40/220 GHz compared with a Rayleigh scattering spectrum. These results are consistent with Rayleigh-scattering-dominated cloud polarization, with possible effects from supercooled water absorption and/or Mie scattering from a population of large cloud particles that contribute to the 220 GHz polarization., Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures, submitted to ApJ

Measurement of the largest angular scale ($\ell < 30$) features of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization is a powerful way to constrain the optical depth to reionization and search for the signature of inflation through the detection of primordial $B$-modes. We present an analysis of maps covering 73.6\% of the sky made from the $40\,\mathrm{GHz}$ channel of the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) from 2016 August to 2022 May. Taking advantage of the measurement stability enabled by front-end polarization modulation and excellent conditions from the Atacama Desert, we show this channel achieves higher sensitivity than the analogous frequencies from satellite measurements in the range $10 < \ell < 100$. Simulations show the CLASS linear (circular) polarization maps have a white noise level of $125 \,(130)\,\mathrm{\mu K\, arcmin}$. We measure the Galaxy-masked $EE$ and $BB$ spectra of diffuse synchrotron radiation and compare to space-based measurements at similar frequencies. In combination with external data, we expand measurements of the spatial variations of the synchrotron spectral energy density (SED) to include new sky regions and measure the diffuse SED in the harmonic domain. We place a new upper limit on a background of circular polarization in the range $5 < \ell < 125$ with the first bin showing $D_\ell < 0.023$ $\mathrm{\mu K^2_{CMB}}$ at 95\% confidence. These results establish a new standard for recovery of the largest-scale CMB polarization from the ground and signal exciting possibilities when the higher sensitivity and higher-frequency CLASS channels are included in the analysis., Comment: 38 pages, 25 figures, 6 tables. Accepted to The Astrophysical Journal

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a telescope array that observes the cosmic microwave background (CMB) over ~75% of the sky from the Atacama Desert, Chile, at frequency bands centered near 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz. CLASS measures the large angular scale CMB polarization to constrain the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the optical depth to last scattering. This paper presents the optical characterization of the 90GHz telescope, which has been observing since July 2018. Observations of the Moon establish the pointing while dedicated observations of Jupiter are used for beam calibration. The standard deviations of the pointing error in azimuth, elevation, and boresight angle are 1.3, 2.1, and 2.0 arcminutes, respectively, over the first 3 years of observations. This corresponds to a pointing uncertainty ~7% of the beam's full width at half maximum (FWHM). The effective azimuthally-symmetrized instrument 1D beam estimated at 90 GHz has an FWHM of 0.620+/-0.003 deg and a solid angle of 138.7+/-0.6(stats.)+/-1.1(sys.) usr integrated to a radius of 4 deg. The corresponding beam window function drops to b_ell^2 = 0.93, 0.71, 0.14 at ell = 30, 100, 300, respectively. Far-sidelobes are studied using detector-centered intensity maps of the Moon and measured to be at a level of 10^-3 or below relative to the peak. The polarization angle of Tau A estimated from preliminary survey maps is 149.6+/-0.2(stats.) deg in equatorial coordinates. The instrumental temperature-to-polarization (T-to-P) leakage fraction, inferred from per-detector demodulated Jupiter scan data, has a monopole component at the level of 1.7 x 10^-3, a dipole component with an amplitude of 4.3 x 10^-3, with no evidence of quadrupolar leakage., Comment: 24 pages, 18 figures, submitted to ApJS

In recent years, critics of online platforms have raised concerns about the ability of recommendation algorithms to amplify problematic content, with potentially radicalizing consequences. However, attempts to evaluate the effect of recommenders have suffered from a lack of appropriate counterfactuals -- what a user would have viewed in the absence of algorithmic recommendations -- and hence cannot disentangle the effects of the algorithm from a user's intentions. Here we propose a method that we call ``counterfactual bots'' to causally estimate the role of algorithmic recommendations on the consumption of highly partisan content. By comparing bots that replicate real users' consumption patterns with ``counterfactual'' bots that follow rule-based trajectories, we show that, on average, relying exclusively on the recommender results in less partisan consumption, where the effect is most pronounced for heavy partisan consumers. Following a similar method, we also show that if partisan consumers switch to moderate content, YouTube's sidebar recommender ``forgets'' their partisan preference within roughly 30 videos regardless of their prior history, while homepage recommendations shift more gradually towards moderate content. Overall, our findings indicate that, at least since the algorithm changes that YouTube implemented in 2019, individual consumption patterns mostly reflect individual preferences, where algorithmic recommendations play, if anything, a moderating role.

Fake news emerged as an apparent global problem during the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. Addressing it requires a multidisciplinary effort to define the nature and extent of the problem, detect fake news in real time, and mitigate its potentially harmful effects. This will require a better understanding of how the Internet spreads content, how people process news, and how the two interact. We review the state of knowledge in these areas and discuss two broad potential mitigation strategies: better enabling individuals to identify fake news, and intervention within the platforms to reduce the attention given to fake news. The cooperation of Internet platforms (especially Facebook, Google, and Twitter) with researchers will be critical to understanding the scale of the issue and the effectiveness of possible interventions., Comment: This is the accepted version of the article, posted to comply with public access mandates. The final published version is available at https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao2998

We report on the disk-averaged absolute brightness temperatures of Venus measured at four microwave frequency bands with the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS). We measure temperatures of 432.3 $\pm$ 2.8 K, 355.6 $\pm$ 1.3 K, 317.9 $\pm$ 1.7 K, and 294.7 $\pm$ 1.9 K for frequency bands centered at 38.8, 93.7, 147.9, and 217.5 GHz, respectively. We do not observe any dependence of the measured brightness temperatures on solar illumination for all four frequency bands. A joint analysis of our measurements with lower frequency Very Large Array (VLA) observations suggests relatively warmer ($\sim$ 7 K higher) mean atmospheric temperatures and lower abundances of microwave continuum absorbers than those inferred from prior radio occultation measurements., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, published in PSJ

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a polarization-sensitive telescope array located at an altitude of 5,200 m in the Chilean Atacama Desert and designed to measure the polarized Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) over large angular scales. The CLASS array is currently observing with three telescopes covering four frequency bands: one at 40 GHz (Q); one at 90 GHz (W1); and one dichroic system at 150/220 GHz (HF). During the austral winter of 2022, we upgraded the first 90 GHz telescope (W1) by replacing four of the seven focal plane modules. These new modules contain detector wafers with an updated design, aimed at improving the optical efficiency and detector stability. We present a description of the design changes and measurements of on-sky optical efficiencies derived from observations of Jupiter., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, to appear in the IEEE Transactions on Applied Superconductivity. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2208.05006

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) telescope array surveys 75% of the sky from the Atacama desert in Chile at frequency bands centered near 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz. CLASS measures the largest-angular-scale CMB polarization with the aim of constraining the tensor-to-scalar ratio, measuring the optical depth to reionization to near the cosmic variance limit, and more. The CLASS Q-band (40 GHz), W-band (90 GHz), and dichroic high frequency (150/220 GHz) telescopes have been observing since June 2016, May 2018, and September 2019, respectively. On-sky optical characterization of the 40 GHz instrument has been published. Here, we present preliminary on-sky measurements of the beams at 90, 150, and 220 GHz, and pointing stability of the 90 and 150/220 GHz telescopes. The average 90, 150, and 220 GHz beams measured from dedicated observations of Jupiter have full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 0.615+/-0.019 deg, 0.378+/-0.005 deg, and 0.266+/-0.008 deg, respectively. Telescope pointing variations are within a few percent of the beam FWHM., Comment: Submitted to Proc. SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation (2022)

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a polarization-sensitive telescope array located at an altitude of 5,200 m in the Chilean Atacama Desert. CLASS is designed to measure "E-mode" (even parity) and "B-mode" (odd parity) polarization patterns in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) over large angular scales with the aim of improving our understanding of inflation, reionization, and dark matter. CLASS is currently observing with three telescopes covering four frequency bands: one at 40 GHz (Q); one at 90 GHz (W1); and one dichroic system at 150/220 GHz (G). In these proceedings, we discuss the updated design and in-lab characterization of new 90 GHz detectors. The new detectors include design changes to the transition-edge sensor (TES) bolometer architecture, which aim to improve stability and optical efficiency. We assembled and tested four new detector wafers, to replace four modules of the W1 focal plane. These detectors were installed into the W1 telescope, and will achieve first light in the austral winter of 2022. We present electrothermal parameters and bandpass measurements from in-lab dark and optical testing. From in-lab dark tests, we also measure a median NEP of 12.3 $\mathrm{aW\sqrt{s}}$ across all four wafers about the CLASS signal band, which is below the expected photon NEP of 32 $\mathrm{aW\sqrt{s}}$ from the field. We therefore expect the new detectors to be photon noise limited., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, to appear in Proc. SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 2022

Polarization modulation is a powerful technique to increase the stability of measurements by enabling the distinction of a polarized signal from dominant slow system drifts and unpolarized foregrounds. Furthermore, when placed as close to the sky as possible, modulation can reduce systematic errors from instrument polarization. In this work, we introduce the design and preliminary drive system laboratory performance of a new 60 cm diameter reflective half-wave plate (RHWP) polarization modulator. The wave plate consists of a wire array situated in front of a flat mirror. Using \mbox{50 $\mu$m} diameter wires with \mbox{175 $\mu$m} spacing, the wave plate will be suitable for operation in the millimeter wavelength range with flatness of the wires and parallelism to the mirror held to a small fraction of a wavelength. The presented design targets the 77--108 GHz range. Modulation is performed by a rotation of the wave plate with a custom rotary drive utilizing an actively controlled servo motor., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, to appear in Proc. SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 2022

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a telescope array observing the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) at frequency bands centered near 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz. CLASS measures the CMB polarization on the largest angular scales to constrain the inflationary tensor-to-scalar ratio and the optical depth due to reionization. To achieve the long time-scale stability necessary for this measurement from the ground, CLASS utilizes a front-end, variable-delay polarization modulator on each telescope. Here we report on the improvements in stability afforded by front-end modulation using data across all four CLASS frequencies. Across one month of modulated linear polarization data in 2021, CLASS achieved median knee frequencies of 9.1, 29.1, 20.4, and 36.4 mHz for the 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz observing bands. The knee frequencies are approximately an order of magnitude lower than achieved via CLASS pair-differencing orthogonal detector pairs without modulation., Comment: Submitted to SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 2022 Conference (AS22)

The current and future cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments fielding kilo-pixel arrays of transition-edge sensor (TES) bolometers require accurate and robust gain calibration methods. We simplify and refactor the standard TES model to directly relate the detector responsivity calibration and optical time constant to the measured TES current $I$ and the applied bias current $I_{\mathrm{b}}$. The calibration method developed for the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) TES bolometer arrays relies on current versus voltage ($I$-$V$) measurements acquired daily prior to CMB observations. By binning Q-band (40GHz) $I$-$V$ measurements by optical loading, we find that the gain calibration median standard error within a bin is 0.3%. We test the accuracy of this "$I$-$V$ bin" detector calibration method by using the Moon as a photometric standard. The ratio of measured Moon amplitudes between detector pairs sharing the same feedhorn indicates a TES calibration error of 0.5%. We also find that for the CLASS Q-band TES array, calibrating the response of individual detectors based solely on the applied TES bias current accurately corrects TES gain variations across time but introduces a bias in the TES calibration from data counts to power units. Since the TES current bias value is set and recorded before every observation, this calibration method can always be applied to raw TES data and is not subject to $I$-$V$ data quality or processing errors., Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables. Submitted to ApJS May 2022. Published ApJS Oct 2022

We introduce COMAP-EoR, the next generation of the Carbon Monoxide Mapping Array Project aimed at extending CO intensity mapping to the Epoch of Reionization. COMAP-EoR supplements the existing 30 GHz COMAP Pathfinder with two additional 30 GHz instruments and a new 16 GHz receiver. This combination of frequencies will be able to simultaneously map CO(1--0) and CO(2--1) at reionization redshifts ($z\sim5-8$) in addition to providing a significant boost to the $z\sim3$ sensitivity of the Pathfinder. We examine a set of existing models of the EoR CO signal, and find power spectra spanning several orders of magnitude, highlighting our extreme ignorance about this period of cosmic history and the value of the COMAP-EoR measurement. We carry out the most detailed forecast to date of an intensity mapping cross-correlation, and find that five out of the six models we consider yield signal to noise ratios (S/N) $\gtrsim20$ for COMAP-EoR, with the brightest reaching a S/N above 400. We show that, for these models, COMAP-EoR can make a detailed measurement of the cosmic molecular gas history from $z\sim2-8$, as well as probe the population of faint, star-forming galaxies predicted by these models to be undetectable by traditional surveys. We show that, for the single model that does not predict numerous faint emitters, a COMAP-EoR-type measurement is required to rule out their existence. We briefly explore prospects for a third-generation Expanded Reionization Array (COMAP-ERA) capable of detecting the faintest models and characterizing the brightest signals in extreme detail., Comment: Paper 7 of 7 in series. 19 pages, 10 figures, to be submitted to ApJ

We present the current state of models for the $z\sim3$ carbon monoxide (CO) line-intensity signal targeted by the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder in the context of its early science results. Our fiducial model, relating dark matter halo properties to CO luminosities, informs parameter priors with empirical models of the galaxy-halo connection and previous CO(1-0) observations. The Pathfinder early science data spanning wavenumbers $k=0.051$-$0.62\,$Mpc$^{-1}$ represent the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO(1-0) power spectrum. Our 95% upper limit on the redshift-space clustering amplitude $A_{\rm clust}\lesssim70\,\mu$K$^2$ greatly improves on the indirect upper limit of $420\,\mu$K$^2$ reported from the CO Power Spectrum Survey (COPSS) measurement at $k\sim1\,$Mpc$^{-1}$. The COMAP limit excludes a subset of models from previous literature, and constrains interpretation of the COPSS results, demonstrating the complementary nature of COMAP and interferometric CO surveys. Using line bias expectations from our priors, we also constrain the squared mean line intensity-bias product, $\langle{Tb}\rangle^2\lesssim50\,\mu$K$^2$, and the cosmic molecular gas density, $\rho_\text{H2}<2.5\times10^8\,M_\odot\,$Mpc$^{-3}$ (95% upper limits). Based on early instrument performance and our current CO signal estimates, we forecast that the five-year Pathfinder campaign will detect the CO power spectrum with overall signal-to-noise of 9-17. Between then and now, we also expect to detect the CO-galaxy cross-spectrum using overlapping galaxy survey data, enabling enhanced inferences of cosmic star-formation and galaxy-evolution history., Comment: Paper 5 of 7 in series. 17 pages + appendix and bibliography (30 pages total); 15 figures, 6 tables; accepted for publication in ApJ; v3 reflects the accepted version with minor changes and additions to text

We present early results from the COMAP Galactic Plane Survey conducted between June 2019 and April 2021, spanning $20^\circ<\ell<40^\circ$ in Galactic longitude and $|b|<1.\!\!^{\circ}5$ in Galactic latitude with an angular resolution of $4.5^{\prime}$. The full survey will span $\ell \sim 20^{\circ}$- $220^{\circ}$ and will be the first large-scale radio continuum survey at $30$ GHz with sub-degree resolution. We present initial results from the first part of the survey, including diffuse emission and spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of HII regions and supernova remnants. Using low and high frequency surveys to constrain free-free and thermal dust emission contributions, we find evidence of excess flux density at $30\,$GHz in six regions that we interpret as anomalous microwave emission. Furthermore we model UCHII contributions using data from the $5\,$GHz CORNISH catalogue and reject this as the cause of the $30\,$GHz excess. Six known supernova remnants (SNR) are detected at $30\,$GHz, and we measure spectral indices consistent with the literature or show evidence of steepening. The flux density of the SNR W44 at $30\,$GHz is consistent with a power-law extrapolation from lower frequencies with no indication of spectral steepening in contrast with recent results from the Sardinia Radio Telescope. We also extract five hydrogen radio recombination lines to map the warm ionized gas, which can be used to estimate electron temperatures or to constrain continuum free-free emission. The full COMAP Galactic plane survey, to be released in 2023/2024, will be an invaluable resource for Galactic astrophysics., Comment: Paper 6 of 7 in series. 28 pages, 10 figures, submitted to ApJ

We present the power spectrum methodology used for the first-season COMAP analysis, and assess the quality of the current data set. The main results are derived through the Feed-feed Pseudo-Cross-Spectrum (FPXS) method, which is a robust estimator with respect to both noise modeling errors and experimental systematics. We use effective transfer functions to take into account the effects of instrumental beam smoothing and various filter operations applied during the low-level data processing. The power spectra estimated in this way have allowed us to identify a systematic error associated with one of our two scanning strategies, believed to be due to residual ground or atmospheric contamination. We omit these data from our analysis and no longer use this scanning technique for observations. We present the power spectra from our first season of observing and demonstrate that the uncertainties are integrating as expected for uncorrelated noise, with any residual systematics suppressed to a level below the noise. Using the FPXS method, and combining data on scales $k=0.051-0.62 \,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ we estimate $P_\mathrm{CO}(k) = -2.7 \pm 1.7 \times 10^4\mu\textrm{K}^2\mathrm{Mpc}^3$, the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO(1-0) power spectrum in the literature., Comment: Paper 4 of 7 in series. 18 pages, 11 figures, as accepted in ApJ

We describe the first season COMAP analysis pipeline that converts raw detector readouts to calibrated sky maps. This pipeline implements four main steps: gain calibration, filtering, data selection, and map-making. Absolute gain calibration relies on a combination of instrumental and astrophysical sources, while relative gain calibration exploits real-time total-power variations. High efficiency filtering is achieved through spectroscopic common-mode rejection within and across receivers, resulting in nearly uncorrelated white noise within single-frequency channels. Consequently, near-optimal but biased maps are produced by binning the filtered time stream into pixelized maps; the corresponding signal bias transfer function is estimated through simulations. Data selection is performed automatically through a series of goodness-of-fit statistics, including $\chi^2$ and multi-scale correlation tests. Applying this pipeline to the first-season COMAP data, we produce a dataset with very low levels of correlated noise. We find that one of our two scanning strategies (the Lissajous type) is sensitive to residual instrumental systematics. As a result, we no longer use this type of scan and exclude data taken this way from our Season 1 power spectrum estimates. We perform a careful analysis of our data processing and observing efficiencies and take account of planned improvements to estimate our future performance. Power spectrum results derived from the first-season COMAP maps are presented and discussed in companion papers., Comment: Paper 3 of 7 in series. 26 pages, 23 figures, submitted to ApJ

The CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) aims to use line intensity mapping of carbon monoxide (CO) to trace the distribution and global properties of galaxies over cosmic time, back to the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). To validate the technologies and techniques needed for this goal, a Pathfinder instrument has been constructed and fielded. Sensitive to CO(1-0) emission from $z=2.4$-$3.4$ and a fainter contribution from CO(2-1) at $z=6$-8, the Pathfinder is surveying $12$ deg$^2$ in a 5-year observing campaign to detect the CO signal from $z\sim3$. Using data from the first 13 months of observing, we estimate $P_\mathrm{CO}(k) = -2.7 \pm 1.7 \times 10^4\mu\mathrm{K}^2 \mathrm{Mpc}^3$ on scales $k=0.051-0.62 \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ - the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO(1-0) power spectrum. Based on these observations alone, we obtain a constraint on the amplitude of the clustering component (the squared mean CO line temperature-bias product) of $\langle Tb\rangle^2<49$ $\mu$K$^2$ - nearly an order-of-magnitude improvement on the previous best measurement. These constraints allow us to rule out two models from the literature. We forecast a detection of the power spectrum after 5 years with signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) 9-17. Cross-correlation with an overlapping galaxy survey will yield a detection of the CO-galaxy power spectrum with S/N of 19. We are also conducting a 30 GHz survey of the Galactic plane and present a preliminary map. Looking to the future of COMAP, we examine the prospects for future phases of the experiment to detect and characterize the CO signal from the EoR., Comment: Paper 1 of 7 in series. 18 pages, 16 figures, submitted to ApJ

Line intensity mapping (LIM) is a new technique for tracing the global properties of galaxies over cosmic time. Detection of the very faint signals from redshifted carbon monoxide (CO), a tracer of star formation, pushes the limits of what is feasible with a total-power instrument. The CO Mapping Project (COMAP) Pathfinder is a first-generation instrument aiming to prove the concept and develop the technology for future experiments, as well as delivering early science products. With 19 receiver channels in a hexagonal focal plane arrangement on a 10.4 m antenna, and an instantaneous 26-34 GHz frequency range with 2 MHz resolution, it is ideally suited to measuring CO($J$=1-0) from $z\sim3$. In this paper we discuss strategies for designing and building the Pathfinder and the challenges that were encountered. The design of the instrument prioritized LIM requirements over those of ancillary science. After a couple of years of operation, the instrument is well understood, and the first year of data is already yielding useful science results. Experience with this Pathfinder will drive the design of the next generations of experiments., Comment: Paper 2 of 7 in series. 27 pages, 28 figures, submitted to ApJ

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) observes the polarized cosmic microwave background (CMB) over the angular scales of 1$^\circ \lesssim \theta \leq$ 90$^\circ$ with the aim of characterizing primordial gravitational waves and cosmic reionization. We report on the on-sky performance of the CLASS Q-band (40 GHz), W-band (90 GHz), and dichroic G-band (150/220 GHz) receivers that have been operational at the CLASS site in the Atacama desert since June 2016, May 2018, and September 2019, respectively. We show that the noise-equivalent power measured by the detectors matches the expected noise model based on on-sky optical loading and lab-measured detector parameters. Using Moon, Venus, and Jupiter observations, we obtain power-to-antenna-temperature calibrations and optical efficiencies for the telescopes. From the CMB survey data, we compute instantaneous array noise-equivalent-temperature sensitivities of 22, 19, 23, and 71 $\mathrm{\mu K}_\mathrm{cmb}\sqrt{\mathrm{s}}$ for the 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz frequency bands, respectively. These noise temperatures refer to white noise amplitudes, which contribute to sky maps at all angular scales. Future papers will assess additional noise sources impacting larger angular scales., Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, published in ApJ

For over 60 years, the scientific community has studied actively growing central super-massive black holes (active galactic nuclei -- AGN) but fundamental questions on their genesis remain unanswered. Numerical simulations and theoretical arguments show that black hole growth occurs during short-lived periods ($\sim$ 10$^{7}$ -10$^{8}$ yr) of powerful accretion. Major mergers are commonly invoked as the most likely dissipative process to trigger the rapid fueling of AGN. If the AGN-merger paradigm is true, we expect galaxy mergers to coincide with black hole accretion during a heavily obscured AGN phase (N$_H$ $ > 10^{23}$ cm$^{-2}$). Starting from one of the largest samples of obscured AGN at 0.5 $<$ $z$ $<$ 3.1, we select 40 non-starbursting lower-luminosity obscured AGN. We then construct a one-to-one matched redshift- and near-IR magnitude-matched non-starbursting inactive galaxy control sample. Combining deep color \textit{Hubble Space Telescope} imaging and a novel method of human classification, we test the merger-AGN paradigm prediction that heavily obscured AGN are strongly associated with galaxies undergoing a major merger. On the total sample of 80 galaxies, we estimate each individual classifier's accuracy at identifying merging galaxies/post-merging systems and isolated galaxies. We calculate the probability of each galaxy being in either a major merger or isolated system, given the accuracy of the human classifiers and the individual classifications of each galaxy. We do not find statistically significant evidence that obscured AGN at cosmic noon are predominately found in systems with evidence of significant merging/post-merging features., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, accepted in ApJ

Significant galaxy mergers throughout cosmic time play a fundamental role in theories of galaxy evolution. The widespread usage of human classifiers to visually assess whether galaxies are in merging systems remains a fundamental component of many morphology studies. Studies that employ human classifiers usually construct a control sample, and rely on the assumption that the bias introduced by using humans will be evenly applied to all samples. In this work, we test this assumption and develop methods to correct for it. Using the standard binomial statistical methods employed in many morphology studies, we find that the merger fraction, error, and the significance of the difference between two samples are dependent on the intrinsic merger fraction of any given sample. We propose a method of quantifying merger biases of individual human classifiers and incorporate these biases into a full probabilistic model to determine the merger fraction and the probability of an individual galaxy being in a merger. Using 14 simulated human responses and accuracies, we are able to correctly label a galaxy as ''merger'' or ''isolated'' to within 1\% of the truth. Using 14 real human responses on a set of realistic mock galaxy simulation snapshots our model is able to recover the pre-coalesced merger fraction to within 10\%. Our method can not only increase the accuracy of studies probing the merger state of galaxies at cosmic noon, but also can be used to construct more accurate training sets in machine learning studies that use human classified data-sets., Comment: 23 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ, https://github.com/elambrid/merger_or_not

Line-intensity mapping observations will find fluctuations of integrated line emission are attenuated by varying degrees at small scales due to the width of the line emission profiles. This attenuation may significantly impact estimates of astrophysical or cosmological quantities derived from measurements. We consider a theoretical treatment of the effect of line broadening on both the clustering and shot-noise components of the power spectrum of a generic line-intensity power spectrum using a halo model. We then consider possible simplifications to allow easier application in analysis, particularly in the context of inferences that require numerous, repeated, fast computations of model line-intensity signals across a large parameter space. For the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) and the CO(1-0) line-intensity field at $z\sim3$ serving as our primary case study, we expect a $\sim10\%$ attenuation of the spherically averaged power spectrum on average at relevant scales of $k\approx0.2$-$0.3$ Mpc$^{-1}$, compared to $\sim25\%$ for the interferometric Millimetre-wave Intensity Mapping Experiment (mmIME) targeting shot noise from CO lines at $z\sim1$-$5$ at scales of $k\gtrsim1$ Mpc$^{-1}$. We also consider the nature and amplitude of errors introduced by simplified treatments of line broadening, and find that while an approximation using a single effective velocity scale is sufficient for spherically-averaged power spectra, a more careful treatment is necessary when considering other statistics such as higher multipoles of the anisotropic power spectrum or the voxel intensity distribution., Comment: 24 pages + appendix and bibliography (33 pages total), 16 figures, 2 tables; accepted for publication in ApJ

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a four-telescope array observing the largest angular scales ($2 \lesssim \ell \lesssim 200$) of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization. These scales encode information about reionization and inflation during the early universe. The instrument stability necessary to observe these angular scales from the ground is achieved through the use of a variable-delay polarization modulator (VPM) as the first optical element in each of the CLASS telescopes. Here we develop a demodulation scheme used to extract the polarization timestreams from the CLASS data and apply this method to selected data from the first two years of observations by the 40 GHz CLASS telescope. These timestreams are used to measure the $1/f$ noise and temperature-to-polarization ($T\rightarrow P$) leakage present in the CLASS data. We find a median knee frequency for the pair-differenced demodulated linear polarization of 15.12 mHz and a $T\rightarrow P$ leakage of $<3.8\times10^{-4}$ (95\% confidence) across the focal plane. We examine the sources of $1/f$ noise present in the data and find the component of $1/f$ due to atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) has an amplitude of $203 \pm 12 \mathrm{\mu K_{RJ}\sqrt{s}}$ for 1 mm of PWV when evaluated at 10 mHz; accounting for $\sim32\%$ of the $1/f$ noise in the central pixels of the focal plane. The low level of $T\rightarrow P$ leakage and $1/f$ noise achieved through the use of a front-end polarization modulator enables the observation of the largest scales of the CMB polarization from the ground by the CLASS telescopes., Comment: Submitted to ApJ

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is an array of polarization-sensitive millimeter wave telescopes that observes ~70% of the sky at frequency bands centered near 40GHz, 90GHz, 150GHz, and 220GHz from the Atacama desert of northern Chile. Here, we describe the architecture of the software used to control the telescopes, acquire data from the various instruments, schedule observations, monitor the status of the instruments and observations, create archival data packages, and transfer data packages to North America for analysis. The computer and network architecture of the CLASS observing site is also briefly discussed. This software and architecture has been in use since 2016, operating the telescopes day and night throughout the year, and has proven successful in fulfilling its design goals., Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, to appear in Proc. SPIE

Although it is under-studied relative to other social media platforms, YouTube is arguably the largest and most engaging online media consumption platform in the world. Recently, YouTube's scale has fueled concerns that YouTube users are being radicalized via a combination of biased recommendations and ostensibly apolitical anti-woke channels, both of which have been claimed to direct attention to radical political content. Here we test this hypothesis using a representative panel of more than 300,000 Americans and their individual-level browsing behavior, on and off YouTube, from January 2016 through December 2019. Using a labeled set of political news channels, we find that news consumption on YouTube is dominated by mainstream and largely centrist sources. Consumers of far-right content, while more engaged than average, represent a small and stable percentage of news consumers. However, consumption of anti-woke content, defined in terms of its opposition to progressive intellectual and political agendas, grew steadily in popularity and is correlated with consumption of far-right content off-platform. We find no evidence that engagement with far-right content is caused by YouTube recommendations systematically, nor do we find clear evidence that anti-woke channels serve as a gateway to the far right. Rather, consumption of political content on YouTube appears to reflect individual preferences that extend across the web as a whole., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables

Using the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor, we measure the disk-averaged absolute Venus brightness temperature to be 432.3 $\pm$ 2.8 K and 355.6 $\pm$ 1.3 K in the Q and W frequency bands centered at 38.8 and 93.7 GHz, respectively. At both frequency bands, these are the most precise measurements to date. Furthermore, we observe no phase dependence of the measured temperature in either band. Our measurements are consistent with a CO$_2$-dominant atmospheric model that includes trace amounts of additional absorbers like SO$_2$ and H$_2$SO$_4$., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, published in PSJ

Virtual labs allow researchers to design high-throughput and macro-level experiments that are not feasible in traditional in-person physical lab settings. Despite the increasing popularity of online research, researchers still face many technical and logistical barriers when designing and deploying virtual lab experiments. While several platforms exist to facilitate the development of virtual lab experiments, they typically present researchers with a stark trade-off between usability and functionality. We introduce Empirica: a modular virtual lab that offers a solution to the usability-functionality trade-off by employing a "flexible defaults" design strategy. This strategy enables us to maintain complete "build anything" flexibility while offering a development platform that is accessible to novice programmers. Empirica's architecture is designed to allow for parameterizable experimental designs, reusable protocols, and rapid development. These features will increase the accessibility of virtual lab experiments, remove barriers to innovation in experiment design, and enable rapid progress in the understanding of distributed human computation., Comment: 36 pages, 6 figures. Accepted to Behavioral Research Methods. Behav Res (2021)

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a telescope array that observes the cosmic microwave background (CMB) over 75% of the sky from the Atacama Desert, Chile, at frequency bands centered near 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz. CLASS measures the large angular scale ($1^\circ\lesssim\theta\leqslant 90^\circ$) CMB polarization to constrain the tensor-to-scalar ratio at the $r\sim0.01$ level and the optical depth to last scattering to the sample variance limit. This paper presents the optical characterization of the 40 GHz telescope during its first observation era, from 2016 September to 2018 February. High signal-to-noise observations of the Moon establish the pointing and beam calibration. The telescope boresight pointing variation is $<0.023^\circ$ ($<1.6$% of the beam's full width at half maximum (FWHM)). We estimate beam parameters per detector and in aggregate, as in the CMB survey maps. The aggregate beam has an FWHM of $1.579^\circ\pm.001^\circ$ and a solid angle of $838 \pm 6\ \mu{\rm sr}$, consistent with physical optics simulations. The corresponding beam window function has a sub-percent error per multipole at $\ell < 200$. An extended $90^\circ$ beam map reveals no significant far sidelobes. The observed Moon polarization shows that the instrument polarization angles are consistent with the optical model and that the temperature-to-polarization leakage fraction is $<10^{-4}$ (95% C.L.). We find that the Moon-based results are consistent with measurements of M42, RCW 38, and Tau A from CLASS's CMB survey data. In particular, Tau A measurements establish degree-level precision for instrument polarization angles., Comment: 32 pages, 24 figures, published in ApJ

The Earth's magnetic field induces Zeeman splitting of the magnetic dipole transitions of molecular oxygen in the atmosphere, which produces polarized emission in the millimeter-wave regime. This polarized emission is primarily circularly polarized and manifests as a foreground with a dipole-shaped sky pattern for polarization-sensitive ground-based cosmic microwave background experiments, such as the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS), which is capable of measuring large angular scale circular polarization. Using atmospheric emission theory and radiative transfer formalisms, we model the expected amplitude and spatial distribution of this signal and evaluate the model for the CLASS observing site in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. Then, using two years of observations at 32.3 GHz to 43.7 GHz from the CLASS Q-band telescope, we present a detection of this signal and compare the observed signal to that predicted by the model. We recover an angle between magnetic north and true north of $(-5.5 \pm 0.6)^\circ$, which is consistent with the expectation of $-5.9^\circ$ for the CLASS observing site. When comparing dipole sky patterns fit to both simulated and data-derived sky maps, the dipole directions match to within a degree, and the measured amplitudes match to within ${\sim}20\%$., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, published in ApJ

We report circular polarization measurements from the first two years of observation with the 40 GHz polarimeter of the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS). CLASS is conducting a multi-frequency survey covering 75% of the sky from the Atacama Desert designed to measure the cosmic microwave background (CMB) linear E and B polarization on angular scales $1^\circ \lesssim \theta \leq 90^\circ$, corresponding to a multipole range of $2 \leq \ell \lesssim 200$. The modulation technology enabling measurements of linear polarization at the largest angular scales from the ground, the Variable-delay Polarization Modulator, is uniquely designed to provide explicit sensitivity to circular polarization (Stokes $V$). We present a first detection of circularly polarized atmospheric emission at 40 GHz that is well described by a dipole with an amplitude of $124\pm4\,\mathrm{\mu K}$ when observed at an elevation of $45^\circ$, and discuss its potential impact as a foreground to CMB experiments. Filtering the atmospheric component, CLASS places a 95% C.L. upper limit of $0.4\,\mathrm{\mu K}^2$ to $13.5\,\mathrm{\mu K}^2$ on $\ell(\ell+1)C_\ell^{VV}/(2\pi)$ between $1 \leq \ell \leq 120$, representing a two-orders-of-magnitude improvement over previous limits., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is mapping the polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) at large angular scales ($2<\ell\lesssim200$) in search of a primordial gravitational wave B-mode signal down to a tensor-to-scalar ratio of $r \approx 0.01$. The same data set will provide a near sample-variance-limited measurement of the optical depth to reionization. Between June 2016 and March 2018, CLASS completed the largest ground-based Q-band CMB survey to date, covering over 31 000~square-degrees (75% of the sky), with an instantaneous array noise-equivalent temperature (NET) sensitivity of $32~\mu \mbox{K}_{cmb}\sqrt{\mbox{s}}$. We demonstrate that the detector optical loading ($1.6~\mbox{pW}$) and noise-equivalent power ($19~\mbox{aW}\sqrt{\mbox{s}}$) match the expected noise model dominated by photon bunching noise. We derive a $13.1\pm0.3~\mbox{K/pW}$ calibration to antenna temperature based on Moon observations, which translates to an optical efficiency of $0.48\pm0.04$ and a $27~\mbox{K}$ system noise temperature. Finally, we report a Tau A flux density of $308\pm11~\mbox{Jy}$ at $38.4\pm0.2~\mbox{GHz}$, consistent with the WMAP Tau A time-dependent spectral flux density model., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

We analyse 2,015 mid-infrared (MIR) spectra of galaxies observed with Spitzer's Infrared Spectrograph, including objects with growing super-massive black holes and objects where most of the infrared emission originates from newly formed stars. We determine if and how accreting super-massive black holes at the centre of galaxies -- known as active galactic nuclei (AGN) -- heat and ionize their host galaxies' dust and molecular gas. We use four MIR diagnostics to estimate the contribution of the AGN to the total MIR emission. We refer to galaxies whose AGN contribute more than 50 per cent of the total MIR emission as AGN-dominated. We compare the relative strengths of PAH emission features and find that PAH grains in AGN-dominated sources have a wider range of sizes and fractional ionizations than PAH grains in non-AGN dominated sources. We measure rotational transitions of H_2 and estimate H_2 excitation temperatures and masses for individual targets, H_2 excitation temperatures for spectra stacked by their AGN contribution to the MIR, and the H_2 excitation temperature distributions via a hierarchical Bayesian model. We find an average 200 K difference between the excitation temperatures of the H_2 S(5) and H_2 S(7) pure rotational molecular hydrogen transition pair in AGN-dominated versus non-AGN dominated galaxies. Our findings suggest that AGN impact the interstellar medium of their host galaxies., Comment: Published in MNRAS, 20 pages, 16 figures, link to full tables and stacked spectra (http://pages.jh.edu/~elambri1/MIR_AGN_MolecularGas/)

We analyze simulated maps of the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) experiment and recover a nearly cosmic-variance limited estimate of the reionization optical depth $\tau$. We use a power spectrum-based likelihood to simultaneously clean foregrounds and estimate cosmological parameters in multipole space. Using software specifically designed to constrain $\tau$, the amplitude of scalar fluctuations $A_s$, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$, we demonstrate that the CLASS experiment will be able to estimate $\tau$ within a factor of two of the full-sky cosmic variance limit allowed by cosmic microwave background polarization measurements. Additionally, we discuss the role of CLASS's $\tau$ constraint in conjunction with gravitational lensing of the CMB on obtaining a $\gtrsim4\sigma$ measurement of the sum of the neutrino masses., Comment: Accepted for publication by ApJ

We present a model of contagion that unifies and generalizes existing models of the spread of social influences and micro-organismal infections. Our model incorporates individual memory of exposure to a contagious entity (e.g., a rumor or disease), variable magnitudes of exposure (dose sizes), and heterogeneity in the susceptibility of individuals. Through analysis and simulation, we examine in detail the case where individuals may recover from an infection and then immediately become susceptible again (analogous to the so-called SIS model). We identify three basic classes of contagion models which we call \textit{epidemic threshold}, \textit{vanishing critical mass}, and \textit{critical mass} classes, where each class of models corresponds to different strategies for prevention or facilitation. We find that the conditions for a particular contagion model to belong to one of the these three classes depend only on memory length and the probabilities of being infected by one and two exposures respectively. These parameters are in principle measurable for real contagious influences or entities, thus yielding empirical implications for our model. We also study the case where individuals attain permanent immunity once recovered, finding that epidemics inevitably die out but may be surprisingly persistent when individuals possess memory., Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables

We present a method for estimating causal effects in time series data when fine-grained information about the outcome of interest is available. Specifically, we examine what we call the split-door setting, where the outcome variable can be split into two parts: one that is potentially affected by the cause being studied and another that is independent of it, with both parts sharing the same (unobserved) confounders. We show that under these conditions, the problem of identification reduces to that of testing for independence among observed variables, and present a method that uses this approach to automatically find subsets of the data that are causally identified. We demonstrate the method by estimating the causal impact of Amazon's recommender system on traffic to product pages, finding thousands of examples within the dataset that satisfy the split-door criterion. Unlike past studies based on natural experiments that were limited to a single product category, our method applies to a large and representative sample of products viewed on the site. In line with previous work, we find that the widely-used click-through rate (CTR) metric overestimates the causal impact of recommender systems; depending on the product category, we estimate that 50-80\% of the traffic attributed to recommender systems would have happened even without any recommendations. We conclude with guidelines for using the split-door criterion as well as a discussion of other contexts where the method can be applied.

The B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) provides a unique window into tensor perturbations from inflationary gravitational waves. Survey effects complicate the estimation and description of the power spectrum on the largest angular scales. The pixel-space likelihood yields parameter distributions without the power spectrum as an intermediate step, but it does not have the large suite of tests available to power spectral methods. Searches for primordial B-modes must rigorously reject and rule out contamination. Many forms of contamination vary or are uncorrelated across epochs, frequencies, surveys, or other data treatment subsets. The cross power and the power spectrum of the difference of subset maps provide approaches to reject and isolate excess variance. We develop an analogous joint pixel-space likelihood. Contamination not modeled in the likelihood produces parameter-dependent bias and complicates the interpretation of the difference map. We describe a null test that consistently weights the difference map. Excess variance should either be explicitly modeled in the covariance or be removed through reprocessing the data., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, as published in PRD

How predictable is success in complex social systems? In spite of a recent profusion of prediction studies that exploit online social and information network data, this question remains unanswered, in part because it has not been adequately specified. In this paper we attempt to clarify the question by presenting a simple stylized model of success that attributes prediction error to one of two generic sources: insufficiency of available data and/or models on the one hand; and inherent unpredictability of complex social systems on the other. We then use this model to motivate an illustrative empirical study of information cascade size prediction on Twitter. Despite an unprecedented volume of information about users, content, and past performance, our best performing models can explain less than half of the variance in cascade sizes. In turn, this result suggests that even with unlimited data predictive performance would be bounded well below deterministic accuracy. Finally, we explore this potential bound theoretically using simulations of a diffusion process on a random scale free network similar to Twitter. We show that although higher predictive power is possible in theory, such performance requires a homogeneous system and perfect ex-ante knowledge of it: even a small degree of uncertainty in estimating product quality or slight variation in quality across products leads to substantially more restrictive bounds on predictability. We conclude that realistic bounds on predictive accuracy are not dissimilar from those we have obtained empirically, and that such bounds for other complex social systems for which data is more difficult to obtain are likely even lower., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, Proceedings of the 25th ACM International World Wide Web Conference (WWW) 2016

Recommendation systems are an increasingly prominent part of the web, accounting for up to a third of all traffic on several of the world's most popular sites. Nevertheless, little is known about how much activity such systems actually cause over and above activity that would have occurred via other means (e.g., search) if recommendations were absent. Although the ideal way to estimate the causal impact of recommendations is via randomized experiments, such experiments are costly and may inconvenience users. In this paper, therefore, we present a method for estimating causal effects from purely observational data. Specifically, we show that causal identification through an instrumental variable is possible when a product experiences an instantaneous shock in direct traffic and the products recommended next to it do not. We then apply our method to browsing logs containing anonymized activity for 2.1 million users on Amazon.com over a 9 month period and analyze over 4,000 unique products that experience such shocks. We find that although recommendation click-throughs do account for a large fraction of traffic among these products, at least 75% of this activity would likely occur in the absence of recommendations. We conclude with a discussion about the assumptions under which the method is appropriate and caveats around extrapolating results to other products, sites, or settings., Comment: ACM Conference on Economics and Computation (EC 2015)

We consider the effectiveness of foreground cleaning in the recovery of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) polarization sourced by gravitational waves for tensor-to-scalar ratios in the range $0

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency., Comment: 31 pages, 10 figures

A longstanding idea in the literature on human cooperation is that cooperation should be reinforced when conditional cooperators are more likely to interact. In the context of social networks, this idea implies that cooperation should fare better in highly clustered networks such as cliques than in networks with low clustering such as random networks. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a series of web-based experiments, in which 24 individuals played a local public goods game arranged on one of five network topologies that varied between disconnected cliques and a random regular graph. In contrast with previous theoretical work, we found that network topology had no significant effect on average contributions. This result implies either that individuals are not conditional cooperators, or else that cooperation does not benefit from positive reinforcement between connected neighbors. We then tested both of these possibilities in two subsequent series of experiments in which artificial seed players were introduced, making either full or zero contributions. First, we found that although players did generally behave like conditional cooperators, they were as likely to decrease their contributions in response to low contributing neighbors as they were to increase their contributions in response to high contributing neighbors. Second, we found that positive effects of cooperation were contagious only to direct neighbors in the network. In total we report on 113 human subjects experiments, highlighting the speed, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness of web-based experiments over those conducted in physical labs.

The increasing availability of electronic communication data, such as that arising from e-mail exchange, presents social and information scientists with new possibilities for characterizing individual behavior and, by extension, identifying latent structure in human populations. Here, we propose a model of individual e-mail communication that is sufficiently rich to capture meaningful variability across individuals, while remaining simple enough to be interpretable. We show that the model, a cascading non-homogeneous Poisson process, can be formulated as a double-chain hidden Markov model, allowing us to use an efficient inference algorithm to estimate the model parameters from observed data. We then apply this model to two e-mail data sets consisting of 404 and 6,164 users, respectively, that were collected from two universities in different countries and years. We find that the resulting best-estimate parameter distributions for both data sets are surprisingly similar, indicating that at least some features of communication dynamics generalize beyond specific contexts. We also find that variability of individual behavior over time is significantly less than variability across the population, suggesting that individuals can be classified into persistent "types". We conclude that communication patterns may prove useful as an additional class of attribute data, complementing demographic and network data, for user classification and outlier detection--a point that we illustrate with an interpretable clustering of users based on their inferred model parameters., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, to appear in Proceedings of the 15th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD'09), June 28-July 1, Paris, France

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is a telescope array that observes the cosmic microwave background (CMB) over 75% of the sky from the Atacama Desert, Chile, at frequency bands centered near 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz. CLASS measures the large angular scale (1°~< θ >=90°) CMB polarization to constrain the tensor-to-scalar ratio at the r ∼ 0.01 level and the optical depth to last scattering to the sample variance limit. This paper presents the optical characterization of the 40 GHz telescope during its first observation era, from 2016 September to 2018 February. High signal-to-noise observations of the Moon establish the pointing and beam calibration. The telescope boresight pointing variation is <0°. 023 (<1.6% of the beam’s full width at half maximum (FWHM)). We estimate beam parameters per detector and in aggregate, as in the CMB survey maps. The aggregate beam has an FWHM of 1°.579 ± 0°.001 and a solid angle of 838 ± 6 μsr, consistent with physical optics simulations. The corresponding beam window function has a sub-percent error per multipole at ℓ < 200. An extended 90° beam map reveals no significant far sidelobes. The observed Moon polarization shows that the instrument polarization angles are consistent with the optical model and that the temperature-to-polarization leakage fraction is <10(exp −4) (95% C.L.). We find that the Moon-based results are consistent with measurements of M42, RCW 38, and Tau A from CLASS’s CMB survey data. In particular, Tau A measurements establish degree- level precision for instrument polarization angles.