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Optimal management of thermal and energy grids with fluctuating demand and prices requires to orchestrate the generation units (GU) among all their operating modes. A hierarchical approach is proposed to control coupled energy nonlinear systems. The high level hybrid optimization defines the unit commitment, with the optimal transition strategy, and best production profiles. The low level dynamic model predictive control (MPC), receiving the set-points from the upper layer, safely governs the systems considering process constraints. To enhance the overall efficiency of the system, a method to optimal start-up the GU is here presented: a linear parameter varying MPC computes the optimal trajectory in closed-loop by iteratively linearising the system along the previous optimal solution. The introduction of an intermediate equilibrium state as additional decision variable permits the reduction of the optimization horizon,while a terminal cost term steers the system to the target set-point. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

A hierarchical architecture for the optimal management of an ensemble of steam generators is presented. The subsystems are coordinated by a multilayer scheme for jointly sustaining a common load. The high level optimizes the load allocation and the generator schedule, considering activation dynamics by a hybrid model. At the medium level, a robust tube-based model predictive control (MPC) tracks a time-varying demand using a centralized--but aggregate--model, whose order does not scale with the number of subsystems. A nonlinear optimization, at medium level, addresses MPC infeasibility due to abrupt changes of ensemble configuration. Low-level decentralized controllers stabilize the generators. This control scheme enables the dynamical modification of the ensemble configuration and plug and play operations. Simulations demonstrate the approach potentialities.

The increasing challenges to the grid stability posed by the penetration of renewable energy resources urge a more active role for demand response programs as viable alternatives to a further expansion of peak power generators. This work presents a methodology to exploit the demand flexibility of energy-intensive industries under Demand-Side Management programs in the energy and reserve markets. To this end, we propose a novel scheduling model for a multi-stage multi-line process, which incorporates both the critical manufacturing constraints and the technical requirements imposed by the market. Using mixed integer programming approach, two optimization problems are formulated to sequentially minimize the cost in a day-ahead energy market and maximize the reserve provision when participating in the ancillary market. The effectiveness of day-ahead scheduling model has been verified for the case of a real metal casting plant in the Nordic market, where a significant reduction of energy cost is obtained. Furthermore, the reserve provision is shown to be a potential tool for capitalizing on the reserve market as a secondary revenue stream.

Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly flexible mappings of complex relationships between the target and the conditioning variables set. However, obtaining comprehensive predictive uncertainties from such black-box models is still a challenging and unsolved problem. In this work, we propose a novel PLF approach, framed on Bayesian Mixture Density Networks. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty sources are encompassed within the model predictions, inferring general conditional densities, depending on the input features, within an end-to-end training framework. To achieve reliable and computationally scalable estimators of the posterior distributions, both Mean Field variational inference and deep ensembles are integrated. Experiments have been performed on household short-term load forecasting tasks, showing the capability of the proposed method to achieve robust performances in different operating conditions., Comment: 56 pages

This work targets the identification of a class of models for hybrid dynamical systems characterized by nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) components, with finite-dimensional polynomial expansions, and by a Markovian switching mechanism. The estimation of the model parameters is performed under a probabilistic framework via Expectation Maximization, including submodel coefficients, hidden state values and transition probabilities. Discrete mode classification and NARX regression tasks are disentangled within the iterations. Soft-labels are assigned to latent states on the trajectories by averaging over the state posteriors and updated using the parametrization obtained from the previous maximization phase. Then, NARXs parameters are repeatedly fitted by solving weighted regression subproblems through a cyclical coordinate descent approach with coordinate-wise minimization. Moreover, we investigate a two stage selection scheme, based on a l1-norm bridge estimation followed by hard-thresholding, to achieve parsimonious models through selection of the polynomial expansion. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a SMNARX problem composed by three nonlinear sub-models with specific regressors., Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures

Hybrid system identification is a key tool to achieve reliable models of Cyber-Physical Systems from data. PieceWise Affine models guarantees universal approximation, local linearity and equivalence to other classes of hybrid system. Still, PWA identification is a challenging problem, requiring the concurrent solution of regression and classification tasks. In this work, we focus on the identification of PieceWise Auto Regressive with eXogenous input models with arbitrary regions (NPWARX), thus not restricted to polyhedral domains, and characterized by discontinuous maps. To this end, we propose a method based on a probabilistic mixture model, where the discrete state is represented through a multinomial distribution conditioned by the input regressors. The architecture is conceived following the Mixture of Expert concept, developed within the machine learning field. To achieve nonlinear partitioning, we parametrize the discriminant function using a neural network. Then, the parameters of both the ARX submodels and the classifier are concurrently estimated by maximizing the likelihood of the overall model using Expectation Maximization. The proposed method is demonstrated on a nonlinear piece-wise problem with discontinuous maps., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures

This work presents a hierarchical architecture for the optimal management of an ensemble of steam generators, which needs to jointly sustain a common load. The coordination of independent subsystems is provided by a multi-layer control scheme. A high-level optimizer computes the optimal shares of production to be allocated to single generators. At medium level, a robust tube-based model predictive control (MPC) is proposed to track the time-varying demand of the ensemble using a centralized, but aggregated model, whose order does not scale with the number of subsystems. At low level, decentralized controllers are in place to stabilize the internal boiler pressure. The control architecture enables the dynamic modification of the ensemble configuration and plug and play operations. Simulation results are reported to demonstrate the potentialities of the proposed approach.