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While many capabilities of language models (LMs) improve with increased training budget, the influence of scale on hallucinations is not yet fully understood. Hallucinations come in many forms, and there is no universally accepted definition. We thus focus on studying only those hallucinations where a correct answer appears verbatim in the training set. To fully control the training data content, we construct a knowledge graph (KG)-based dataset, and use it to train a set of increasingly large LMs. We find that for a fixed dataset, larger and longer-trained LMs hallucinate less. However, hallucinating on $\leq5$% of the training data requires an order of magnitude larger model, and thus an order of magnitude more compute, than Hoffmann et al. (2022) reported was optimal. Given this costliness, we study how hallucination detectors depend on scale. While we see detector size improves performance on fixed LM's outputs, we find an inverse relationship between the scale of the LM and the detectability of its hallucinations., Comment: Published at COLM 2024. 16 pages, 11 figures

We introduce a deterministic variational formulation for training Bayesian last layer neural networks. This yields a sampling-free, single-pass model and loss that effectively improves uncertainty estimation. Our variational Bayesian last layer (VBLL) can be trained and evaluated with only quadratic complexity in last layer width, and is thus (nearly) computationally free to add to standard architectures. We experimentally investigate VBLLs, and show that they improve predictive accuracy, calibration, and out of distribution detection over baselines across both regression and classification. Finally, we investigate combining VBLL layers with variational Bayesian feature learning, yielding a lower variance collapsed variational inference method for Bayesian neural networks., Comment: International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) 2024

This report introduces a new family of multimodal models, Gemini, that exhibit remarkable capabilities across image, audio, video, and text understanding. The Gemini family consists of Ultra, Pro, and Nano sizes, suitable for applications ranging from complex reasoning tasks to on-device memory-constrained use-cases. Evaluation on a broad range of benchmarks shows that our most-capable Gemini Ultra model advances the state of the art in 30 of 32 of these benchmarks - notably being the first model to achieve human-expert performance on the well-studied exam benchmark MMLU, and improving the state of the art in every one of the 20 multimodal benchmarks we examined. We believe that the new capabilities of the Gemini family in cross-modal reasoning and language understanding will enable a wide variety of use cases. We discuss our approach toward post-training and deploying Gemini models responsibly to users through services including Gemini, Gemini Advanced, Google AI Studio, and Cloud Vertex AI.

Fine-tuning language models~(LMs) on human-generated data remains a prevalent practice. However, the performance of such models is often limited by the quantity and diversity of high-quality human data. In this paper, we explore whether we can go beyond human data on tasks where we have access to scalar feedback, for example, on math problems where one can verify correctness. To do so, we investigate a simple self-training method based on expectation-maximization, which we call ReST$^{EM}$, where we (1) generate samples from the model and filter them using binary feedback, (2) fine-tune the model on these samples, and (3) repeat this process a few times. Testing on advanced MATH reasoning and APPS coding benchmarks using PaLM-2 models, we find that ReST$^{EM}$ scales favorably with model size and significantly surpasses fine-tuning only on human data. Overall, our findings suggest self-training with feedback can substantially reduce dependence on human-generated data., Comment: Accepted to TMLR. Camera-ready version. First three authors contributed equally

Neural kernels have drastically increased performance on diverse and nonstandard data modalities but require significantly more compute, which previously limited their application to smaller datasets. In this work, we address this by massively parallelizing their computation across many GPUs. We combine this with a distributed, preconditioned conjugate gradients algorithm to enable kernel regression at a large scale (i.e. up to five million examples). Using this approach, we study scaling laws of several neural kernels across many orders of magnitude for the CIFAR-5m dataset. Using data augmentation to expand the original CIFAR-10 training dataset by a factor of 20, we obtain a test accuracy of 91.2\% (SotA for a pure kernel method). Moreover, we explore neural kernels on other data modalities, obtaining results on protein and small molecule prediction tasks that are competitive with SotA methods.

A recent trend in artificial intelligence is the use of pretrained models for language and vision tasks, which have achieved extraordinary performance but also puzzling failures. Probing these models' abilities in diverse ways is therefore critical to the field. In this paper, we explore the reliability of models, where we define a reliable model as one that not only achieves strong predictive performance but also performs well consistently over many decision-making tasks involving uncertainty (e.g., selective prediction, open set recognition), robust generalization (e.g., accuracy and proper scoring rules such as log-likelihood on in- and out-of-distribution datasets), and adaptation (e.g., active learning, few-shot uncertainty). We devise 10 types of tasks over 40 datasets in order to evaluate different aspects of reliability on both vision and language domains. To improve reliability, we developed ViT-Plex and T5-Plex, pretrained large model extensions for vision and language modalities, respectively. Plex greatly improves the state-of-the-art across reliability tasks, and simplifies the traditional protocol as it improves the out-of-the-box performance and does not require designing scores or tuning the model for each task. We demonstrate scaling effects over model sizes up to 1B parameters and pretraining dataset sizes up to 4B examples. We also demonstrate Plex's capabilities on challenging tasks including zero-shot open set recognition, active learning, and uncertainty in conversational language understanding., Comment: Code available at https://goo.gle/plex-code

Bayesian optimization (BO) has become a popular strategy for global optimization of many expensive real-world functions. Contrary to a common belief that BO is suited to optimizing black-box functions, it actually requires domain knowledge on characteristics of those functions to deploy BO successfully. Such domain knowledge often manifests in Gaussian process priors that specify initial beliefs on functions. However, even with expert knowledge, it is not an easy task to select a prior. This is especially true for hyperparameter tuning problems on complex machine learning models, where landscapes of tuning objectives are often difficult to comprehend. We seek an alternative practice for setting these functional priors. In particular, we consider the scenario where we have data from similar functions that allow us to pre-train a tighter distribution a priori. To verify our approach in realistic model training setups, we collected a large multi-task hyperparameter tuning dataset by training tens of thousands of configurations of near-state-of-the-art models on popular image and text datasets, as well as a protein sequence dataset. Our results show that on average, our method is able to locate good hyperparameters at least 3 times more efficiently than the best competing methods., Comment: ICML2022 Workshop on Adaptive Experimental Design and Active Learning in the Real World. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2109.08215

Accurate uncertainty quantification is a major challenge in deep learning, as neural networks can make overconfident errors and assign high confidence predictions to out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. The most popular approaches to estimate predictive uncertainty in deep learning are methods that combine predictions from multiple neural networks, such as Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and deep ensembles. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to the high memory and computational cost. Furthermore, ensembles and BNNs do not necessarily fix all the issues with the underlying member networks. In this work, we study principled approaches to improve uncertainty property of a single network, based on a single, deterministic representation. By formalizing the uncertainty quantification as a minimax learning problem, we first identify distance awareness, i.e., the model's ability to quantify the distance of a testing example from the training data, as a necessary condition for a DNN to achieve high-quality (i.e., minimax optimal) uncertainty estimation. We then propose Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP), a simple method that improves the distance-awareness ability of modern DNNs with two simple changes: (1) applying spectral normalization to hidden weights to enforce bi-Lipschitz smoothness in representations and (2) replacing the last output layer with a Gaussian process layer. On a suite of vision and language understanding benchmarks, SNGP outperforms other single-model approaches in prediction, calibration and out-of-domain detection. Furthermore, SNGP provides complementary benefits to popular techniques such as deep ensembles and data augmentation, making it a simple and scalable building block for probabilistic deep learning. Code is open-sourced at https://github.com/google/uncertainty-baselines, Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2006.10108

Black box optimization requires specifying a search space to explore for solutions, e.g. a d-dimensional compact space, and this choice is critical for getting the best results at a reasonable budget. Unfortunately, determining a high quality search space can be challenging in many applications. For example, when tuning hyperparameters for machine learning pipelines on a new problem given a limited budget, one must strike a balance between excluding potentially promising regions and keeping the search space small enough to be tractable. The goal of this work is to motivate -- through example applications in tuning deep neural networks -- the problem of predicting the quality of search spaces conditioned on budgets, as well as to provide a simple scoring method based on a utility function applied to a probabilistic response surface model, similar to Bayesian optimization. We show that the method we present can compute meaningful budget-conditional scores in a variety of situations. We also provide experimental evidence that accurate scores can be useful in constructing and pruning search spaces. Ultimately, we believe scoring search spaces should become standard practice in the experimental workflow for deep learning.

Machine learning models based on the aggregated outputs of submodels, either at the activation or prediction levels, often exhibit strong performance compared to individual models. We study the interplay of two popular classes of such models: ensembles of neural networks and sparse mixture of experts (sparse MoEs). First, we show that the two approaches have complementary features whose combination is beneficial. This includes a comprehensive evaluation of sparse MoEs in uncertainty related benchmarks. Then, we present Efficient Ensemble of Experts (E$^3$), a scalable and simple ensemble of sparse MoEs that takes the best of both classes of models, while using up to 45% fewer FLOPs than a deep ensemble. Extensive experiments demonstrate the accuracy, log-likelihood, few-shot learning, robustness, and uncertainty improvements of E$^3$ over several challenging vision Transformer-based baselines. E$^3$ not only preserves its efficiency while scaling to models with up to 2.7B parameters, but also provides better predictive performance and uncertainty estimates for larger models., Comment: 59 pages, 26 figures, 36 tables. Accepted at TMLR

Bayesian optimization (BO) has become a popular strategy for global optimization of expensive real-world functions. Contrary to a common expectation that BO is suited to optimizing black-box functions, it actually requires domain knowledge about those functions to deploy BO successfully. Such domain knowledge often manifests in Gaussian process (GP) priors that specify initial beliefs on functions. However, even with expert knowledge, it is non-trivial to quantitatively define a prior. This is especially true for hyperparameter tuning problems on complex machine learning models, where landscapes of tuning objectives are often difficult to comprehend. We seek an alternative practice for setting these functional priors. In particular, we consider the scenario where we have data from similar functions that allow us to pre-train a tighter distribution a priori. We detail what pre-training entails for GPs using a KL divergence based loss function, and propose a new pre-training based BO framework named HyperBO. Theoretically, we show bounded posterior predictions and near-zero regrets for HyperBO without assuming the "ground truth" GP prior is known. To verify our approach in realistic setups, we collect a large multi-task hyperparameter tuning dataset by training tens of thousands of configurations of near-state-of-the-art deep learning models on popular image and text datasets, as well as a protein sequence dataset. Our results show that on average, HyperBO is able to locate good hyperparameters at least 3 times more efficiently than the best competing methods on both our new tuning dataset and existing multi-task BO benchmarks.

High-quality estimates of uncertainty and robustness are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning which underlies many deployed ML systems. The ability to compare techniques for improving these estimates is therefore very important for research and practice alike. Yet, competitive comparisons of methods are often lacking due to a range of reasons, including: compute availability for extensive tuning, incorporation of sufficiently many baselines, and concrete documentation for reproducibility. In this paper we introduce Uncertainty Baselines: high-quality implementations of standard and state-of-the-art deep learning methods on a variety of tasks. As of this writing, the collection spans 19 methods across 9 tasks, each with at least 5 metrics. Each baseline is a self-contained experiment pipeline with easily reusable and extendable components. Our goal is to provide immediate starting points for experimentation with new methods or applications. Additionally we provide model checkpoints, experiment outputs as Python notebooks, and leaderboards for comparing results. Code available at https://github.com/google/uncertainty-baselines.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular paradigm for global optimization of expensive black-box functions, but there are many domains where the function is not completely a black-box. The data may have some known structure (e.g. symmetries) and/or the data generation process may be a composite process that yields useful intermediate or auxiliary information in addition to the value of the optimization objective. However, surrogate models traditionally employed in BO, such as Gaussian Processes (GPs), scale poorly with dataset size and do not easily accommodate known structure. Instead, we use Bayesian neural networks, a class of scalable and flexible surrogate models with inductive biases, to extend BO to complex, structured problems with high dimensionality. We demonstrate BO on a number of realistic problems in physics and chemistry, including topology optimization of photonic crystal materials using convolutional neural networks, and chemical property optimization of molecules using graph neural networks. On these complex tasks, we show that neural networks often outperform GPs as surrogate models for BO in terms of both sampling efficiency and computational cost., Comment: 32 pages, 16 figures; published in TMLR

Ensemble methods which average over multiple neural network predictions are a simple approach to improve a model's calibration and robustness. Similarly, data augmentation techniques, which encode prior information in the form of invariant feature transformations, are effective for improving calibration and robustness. In this paper, we show a surprising pathology: combining ensembles and data augmentation can harm model calibration. This leads to a trade-off in practice, whereby improved accuracy by combining the two techniques comes at the expense of calibration. On the other hand, selecting only one of the techniques ensures good uncertainty estimates at the expense of accuracy. We investigate this pathology and identify a compounding under-confidence among methods which marginalize over sets of weights and data augmentation techniques which soften labels. Finally, we propose a simple correction, achieving the best of both worlds with significant accuracy and calibration gains over using only ensembles or data augmentation individually. Applying the correction produces new state-of-the art in uncertainty calibration across CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet.

Modern deep learning models have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for many data modalities. However, their application to many real-world tasks is restricted by poor uncertainty estimates, such as overconfidence on out-of-distribution (OOD) data and ungraceful failing under distributional shift. Previous benchmarks have found that ensembles of neural networks (NNs) are typically the best calibrated models on OOD data. Inspired by this, we leverage recent theoretical advances that characterize the function-space prior of an ensemble of infinitely-wide NNs as a Gaussian process, termed the neural network Gaussian process (NNGP). We use the NNGP with a softmax link function to build a probabilistic model for multi-class classification and marginalize over the latent Gaussian outputs to sample from the posterior. This gives us a better understanding of the implicit prior NNs place on function space and allows a direct comparison of the calibration of the NNGP and its finite-width analogue. We also examine the calibration of previous approaches to classification with the NNGP, which treat classification problems as regression to the one-hot labels. In this case the Bayesian posterior is exact, and we compare several heuristics to generate a categorical distribution over classes. We find these methods are well calibrated under distributional shift. Finally, we consider an infinite-width final layer in conjunction with a pre-trained embedding. This replicates the important practical use case of transfer learning and allows scaling to significantly larger datasets. As well as achieving competitive predictive accuracy, this approach is better calibrated than its finite width analogue., Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures

Recent approaches to efficiently ensemble neural networks have shown that strong robustness and uncertainty performance can be achieved with a negligible gain in parameters over the original network. However, these methods still require multiple forward passes for prediction, leading to a significant computational cost. In this work, we show a surprising result: the benefits of using multiple predictions can be achieved `for free' under a single model's forward pass. In particular, we show that, using a multi-input multi-output (MIMO) configuration, one can utilize a single model's capacity to train multiple subnetworks that independently learn the task at hand. By ensembling the predictions made by the subnetworks, we improve model robustness without increasing compute. We observe a significant improvement in negative log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration error on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, ImageNet, and their out-of-distribution variants compared to previous methods., Comment: Updated to the ICLR camera ready version, added reference to Soflaei et al. 2020

Uncertainty quantification for complex deep learning models is increasingly important as these techniques see growing use in high-stakes, real-world settings. Currently, the quality of a model's uncertainty is evaluated using point-prediction metrics such as negative log-likelihood or the Brier score on heldout data. In this study, we provide the first large scale evaluation of the empirical frequentist coverage properties of well known uncertainty quantification techniques on a suite of regression and classification tasks. We find that, in general, some methods do achieve desirable coverage properties on in distribution samples, but that coverage is not maintained on out-of-distribution data. Our results demonstrate the failings of current uncertainty quantification techniques as dataset shift increases and establish coverage as an important metric in developing models for real-world applications., Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures

Speech synthesis is an important practical generative modeling problem that has seen great progress over the last few years, with likelihood-based autoregressive neural models now outperforming traditional concatenative systems. A downside of such autoregressive models is that they require executing tens of thousands of sequential operations per second of generated audio, making them ill-suited for deployment on specialized deep learning hardware. Here, we propose a new learning method that allows us to train highly parallel models of speech, without requiring access to an analytical likelihood function. Our approach is based on a generalized energy distance between the distributions of the generated and real audio. This spectral energy distance is a proper scoring rule with respect to the distribution over magnitude-spectrograms of the generated waveform audio and offers statistical consistency guarantees. The distance can be calculated from minibatches without bias, and does not involve adversarial learning, yielding a stable and consistent method for training implicit generative models. Empirically, we achieve state-of-the-art generation quality among implicit generative models, as judged by the recently-proposed cFDSD metric. When combining our method with adversarial techniques, we also improve upon the recently-proposed GAN-TTS model in terms of Mean Opinion Score as judged by trained human evaluators.

Recent work has observed that one can outperform exact inference in Bayesian neural networks by tuning the "temperature" of the posterior on a validation set (the "cold posterior" effect). To help interpret this phenomenon, we argue that commonly used priors in Bayesian neural networks can significantly overestimate the aleatoric uncertainty in the labels on many classification datasets. This problem is particularly pronounced in academic benchmarks like MNIST or CIFAR, for which the quality of the labels is high. For the special case of Gaussian process regression, any positive temperature corresponds to a valid posterior under a modified prior, and tuning this temperature is directly analogous to empirical Bayes. On classification tasks, there is no direct equivalence between modifying the prior and tuning the temperature, however reducing the temperature can lead to models which better reflect our belief that one gains little information by relabeling existing examples in the training set. Therefore although cold posteriors do not always correspond to an exact inference procedure, we believe they may often better reflect our true prior beliefs., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures

Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty in modern neural networks is critical to achieve well calibrated predictions and detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. The most promising approaches have been predominantly focused on improving model uncertainty (e.g. deep ensembles and Bayesian neural networks) and post-processing techniques for OOD detection (e.g. ODIN and Mahalanobis distance). However, there has been relatively little investigation into how the parametrization of the probabilities in discriminative classifiers affects the uncertainty estimates, and the dominant method, softmax cross-entropy, results in misleadingly high confidences on OOD data and under covariate shift. We investigate alternative ways of formulating probabilities using (1) a one-vs-all formulation to capture the notion of "none of the above", and (2) a distance-based logit representation to encode uncertainty as a function of distance to the training manifold. We show that one-vs-all formulations can improve calibration on image classification tasks, while matching the predictive performance of softmax without incurring any additional training or test-time complexity.

Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, ResNet 20 and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, we improve upon both deep and batch ensembles., Comment: Accepted at NeurIPS 2020

Covariate shift has been shown to sharply degrade both predictive accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty estimates for deep learning models. This is worrying, because covariate shift is prevalent in a wide range of real world deployment settings. However, in this paper, we note that frequently there exists the potential to access small unlabeled batches of the shifted data just before prediction time. This interesting observation enables a simple but surprisingly effective method which we call prediction-time batch normalization, which significantly improves model accuracy and calibration under covariate shift. Using this one line code change, we achieve state-of-the-art on recent covariate shift benchmarks and an mCE of 60.28\% on the challenging ImageNet-C dataset; to our knowledge, this is the best result for any model that does not incorporate additional data augmentation or modification of the training pipeline. We show that prediction-time batch normalization provides complementary benefits to existing state-of-the-art approaches for improving robustness (e.g. deep ensembles) and combining the two further improves performance. Our findings are supported by detailed measurements of the effect of this strategy on model behavior across rigorous ablations on various dataset modalities. However, the method has mixed results when used alongside pre-training, and does not seem to perform as well under more natural types of dataset shift, and is therefore worthy of additional study. We include links to the data in our figures to improve reproducibility, including a Python notebooks that can be run to easily modify our analysis at https://colab.research.google.com/drive/11N0wDZnMQQuLrRwRoumDCrhSaIhkqjof.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) demonstrate promising success in improving the robustness and uncertainty quantification of modern deep learning. However, they generally struggle with underfitting at scale and parameter efficiency. On the other hand, deep ensembles have emerged as alternatives for uncertainty quantification that, while outperforming BNNs on certain problems, also suffer from efficiency issues. It remains unclear how to combine the strengths of these two approaches and remediate their common issues. To tackle this challenge, we propose a rank-1 parameterization of BNNs, where each weight matrix involves only a distribution on a rank-1 subspace. We also revisit the use of mixture approximate posteriors to capture multiple modes, where unlike typical mixtures, this approach admits a significantly smaller memory increase (e.g., only a 0.4% increase for a ResNet-50 mixture of size 10). We perform a systematic empirical study on the choices of prior, variational posterior, and methods to improve training. For ResNet-50 on ImageNet, Wide ResNet 28-10 on CIFAR-10/100, and an RNN on MIMIC-III, rank-1 BNNs achieve state-of-the-art performance across log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration on the test sets and out-of-distribution variants., Comment: Published in the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 2020. Code available at https://github.com/google/edward2

Many contemporary machine learning models require extensive tuning of hyperparameters to perform well. A variety of methods, such as Bayesian optimization, have been developed to automate and expedite this process. However, tuning remains extremely costly as it typically requires repeatedly fully training models. We propose to accelerate the Bayesian optimization approach to hyperparameter tuning for neural networks by taking into account the relative amount of information contributed by each training example. To do so, we leverage importance sampling (IS); this significantly increases the quality of the black-box function evaluations, but also their runtime, and so must be done carefully. Casting hyperparameter search as a multi-task Bayesian optimization problem over both hyperparameters and importance sampling design achieves the best of both worlds: by learning a parameterization of IS that trades-off evaluation complexity and quality, we improve upon Bayesian optimization state-of-the-art runtime and final validation error across a variety of datasets and complex neural architectures.

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the approximate posterior in the hope of improving performance. In contrast, here we share a curious experimental finding that suggests instead restricting the variational distribution to a more compact parameterization. For a variety of deep Bayesian neural networks trained using Gaussian mean-field variational inference, we find that the posterior standard deviations consistently exhibit strong low-rank structure after convergence. This means that by decomposing these variational parameters into a low-rank factorization, we can make our variational approximation more compact without decreasing the models' performance. Furthermore, we find that such factorized parameterizations improve the signal-to-noise ratio of stochastic gradient estimates of the variational lower bound, resulting in faster convergence.

During the past five years the Bayesian deep learning community has developed increasingly accurate and efficient approximate inference procedures that allow for Bayesian inference in deep neural networks. However, despite this algorithmic progress and the promise of improved uncertainty quantification and sample efficiency there are---as of early 2020---no publicized deployments of Bayesian neural networks in industrial practice. In this work we cast doubt on the current understanding of Bayes posteriors in popular deep neural networks: we demonstrate through careful MCMC sampling that the posterior predictive induced by the Bayes posterior yields systematically worse predictions compared to simpler methods including point estimates obtained from SGD. Furthermore, we demonstrate that predictive performance is improved significantly through the use of a "cold posterior" that overcounts evidence. Such cold posteriors sharply deviate from the Bayesian paradigm but are commonly used as heuristic in Bayesian deep learning papers. We put forward several hypotheses that could explain cold posteriors and evaluate the hypotheses through experiments. Our work questions the goal of accurate posterior approximations in Bayesian deep learning: If the true Bayes posterior is poor, what is the use of more accurate approximations? Instead, we argue that it is timely to focus on understanding the origin of the improved performance of cold posteriors., Comment: Full version (main paper and appendix) of the ICML 2020 publication

Ensembles of models have been empirically shown to improve predictive performance and to yield robust measures of uncertainty. However, they are expensive in computation and memory. Therefore, recent research has focused on distilling ensembles into a single compact model, reducing the computational and memory burden of the ensemble while trying to preserve its predictive behavior. Most existing distillation formulations summarize the ensemble by capturing its average predictions. As a result, the diversity of the ensemble predictions, stemming from each member, is lost. Thus, the distilled model cannot provide a measure of uncertainty comparable to that of the original ensemble. To retain more faithfully the diversity of the ensemble, we propose a distillation method based on a single multi-headed neural network, which we refer to as Hydra. The shared body network learns a joint feature representation that enables each head to capture the predictive behavior of each ensemble member. We demonstrate that with a slight increase in parameter count, Hydra improves distillation performance on classification and regression settings while capturing the uncertainty behavior of the original ensemble over both in-domain and out-of-distribution tasks., Comment: Accepted to ICML 2020 Workshop on Uncertainty and Robustness in Deep Learning

Discriminative neural networks offer little or no performance guarantees when deployed on data not generated by the same process as the training distribution. On such out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, the prediction may not only be erroneous, but confidently so, limiting the safe deployment of classifiers in real-world applications. One such challenging application is bacteria identification based on genomic sequences, which holds the promise of early detection of diseases, but requires a model that can output low confidence predictions on OOD genomic sequences from new bacteria that were not present in the training data. We introduce a genomics dataset for OOD detection that allows other researchers to benchmark progress on this important problem. We investigate deep generative model based approaches for OOD detection and observe that the likelihood score is heavily affected by population level background statistics. We propose a likelihood ratio method for deep generative models which effectively corrects for these confounding background statistics. We benchmark the OOD detection performance of the proposed method against existing approaches on the genomics dataset and show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. We demonstrate the generality of the proposed method by showing that it significantly improves OOD detection when applied to deep generative models of images., Comment: Accepted to NeurIPS 2019

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying uncertainty is especially critical in real-world settings, which often involve input distributions that are shifted from the training distribution due to a variety of factors including sample bias and non-stationarity. In such settings, well calibrated uncertainty estimates convey information about when a model's output should (or should not) be trusted. Many probabilistic deep learning methods, including Bayesian-and non-Bayesian methods, have been proposed in the literature for quantifying predictive uncertainty, but to our knowledge there has not previously been a rigorous large-scale empirical comparison of these methods under dataset shift. We present a large-scale benchmark of existing state-of-the-art methods on classification problems and investigate the effect of dataset shift on accuracy and calibration. We find that traditional post-hoc calibration does indeed fall short, as do several other previous methods. However, some methods that marginalize over models give surprisingly strong results across a broad spectrum of tasks., Comment: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2019

Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) provide an elegant and versatile way to sample sets of items that balance the point-wise quality with the set-wise diversity of selected items. For this reason, they have gained prominence in many machine learning applications that rely on subset selection. However, sampling from a DPP over a ground set of size $N$ is a costly operation, requiring in general an $O(N^3)$ preprocessing cost and an $O(Nk^3)$ sampling cost for subsets of size $k$. We approach this problem by introducing DPPNets: generative deep models that produce DPP-like samples for arbitrary ground sets. We develop an inhibitive attention mechanism based on transformer networks that captures a notion of dissimilarity between feature vectors. We show theoretically that such an approximation is sensible as it maintains the guarantees of inhibition or dissimilarity that makes DPPs so powerful and unique. Empirically, we demonstrate that samples from our model receive high likelihood under the more expensive DPP alternative.

Peer review is the foundation of scientific publication, and the task of reviewing has long been seen as a cornerstone of professional service. However, the massive growth in the field of machine learning has put this community benefit under stress, threatening both the sustainability of an effective review process and the overall progress of the field. In this position paper, we argue that a tragedy of the commons outcome may be avoided by emphasizing the professional aspects of this service. In particular, we propose a rubric to hold reviewers to an objective standard for review quality. In turn, we also propose that reviewers be given appropriate incentive. As one possible such incentive, we explore the idea of financial compensation on a per-review basis. We suggest reasonable funding models and thoughts on long term effects., Comment: Appeared in the 2018 Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems Workshop on Critiquing and Correcting Trends in Machine Learning

Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning have made significant strides in performance on applications such as Go and Atari games. However, developing practical methods to balance exploration and exploitation in complex domains remains largely unsolved. Thompson Sampling and its extension to reinforcement learning provide an elegant approach to exploration that only requires access to posterior samples of the model. At the same time, advances in approximate Bayesian methods have made posterior approximation for flexible neural network models practical. Thus, it is attractive to consider approximate Bayesian neural networks in a Thompson Sampling framework. To understand the impact of using an approximate posterior on Thompson Sampling, we benchmark well-established and recently developed methods for approximate posterior sampling combined with Thompson Sampling over a series of contextual bandit problems. We found that many approaches that have been successful in the supervised learning setting underperformed in the sequential decision-making scenario. In particular, we highlight the challenge of adapting slowly converging uncertainty estimates to the online setting., Comment: Sixth International Conference on Learning Representations, ICLR 2018

Permutations and matchings are core building blocks in a variety of latent variable models, as they allow us to align, canonicalize, and sort data. Learning in such models is difficult, however, because exact marginalization over these combinatorial objects is intractable. In response, this paper introduces a collection of new methods for end-to-end learning in such models that approximate discrete maximum-weight matching using the continuous Sinkhorn operator. Sinkhorn iteration is attractive because it functions as a simple, easy-to-implement analog of the softmax operator. With this, we can define the Gumbel-Sinkhorn method, an extension of the Gumbel-Softmax method (Jang et al. 2016, Maddison2016 et al. 2016) to distributions over latent matchings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by outperforming competitive baselines on a range of qualitatively different tasks: sorting numbers, solving jigsaw puzzles, and identifying neural signals in worms.

Discrete Fourier transforms provide a significant speedup in the computation of convolutions in deep learning. In this work, we demonstrate that, beyond its advantages for efficient computation, the spectral domain also provides a powerful representation in which to model and train convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We employ spectral representations to introduce a number of innovations to CNN design. First, we propose spectral pooling, which performs dimensionality reduction by truncating the representation in the frequency domain. This approach preserves considerably more information per parameter than other pooling strategies and enables flexibility in the choice of pooling output dimensionality. This representation also enables a new form of stochastic regularization by randomized modification of resolution. We show that these methods achieve competitive results on classification and approximation tasks, without using any dropout or max-pooling. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of complex-coefficient spectral parameterization of convolutional filters. While this leaves the underlying model unchanged, it results in a representation that greatly facilitates optimization. We observe on a variety of popular CNN configurations that this leads to significantly faster convergence during training.

Bayesian optimization is an effective methodology for the global optimization of functions with expensive evaluations. It relies on querying a distribution over functions defined by a relatively cheap surrogate model. An accurate model for this distribution over functions is critical to the effectiveness of the approach, and is typically fit using Gaussian processes (GPs). However, since GPs scale cubically with the number of observations, it has been challenging to handle objectives whose optimization requires many evaluations, and as such, massively parallelizing the optimization. In this work, we explore the use of neural networks as an alternative to GPs to model distributions over functions. We show that performing adaptive basis function regression with a neural network as the parametric form performs competitively with state-of-the-art GP-based approaches, but scales linearly with the number of data rather than cubically. This allows us to achieve a previously intractable degree of parallelism, which we apply to large scale hyperparameter optimization, rapidly finding competitive models on benchmark object recognition tasks using convolutional networks, and image caption generation using neural language models.

In practical Bayesian optimization, we must often search over structures with differing numbers of parameters. For instance, we may wish to search over neural network architectures with an unknown number of layers. To relate performance data gathered for different architectures, we define a new kernel for conditional parameter spaces that explicitly includes information about which parameters are relevant in a given structure. We show that this kernel improves model quality and Bayesian optimization results over several simpler baseline kernels., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures. Appeared in the NIPS 2013 workshop on Bayesian optimization

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

Recent work on Bayesian optimization has shown its effectiveness in global optimization of difficult black-box objective functions. Many real-world optimization problems of interest also have constraints which are unknown a priori. In this paper, we study Bayesian optimization for constrained problems in the general case that noise may be present in the constraint functions, and the objective and constraints may be evaluated independently. We provide motivating practical examples, and present a general framework to solve such problems. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on optimizing the performance of online latent Dirichlet allocation subject to topic sparsity constraints, tuning a neural network given test-time memory constraints, and optimizing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to achieve maximal effectiveness in a fixed time, subject to passing standard convergence diagnostics., Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures

Bayesian optimization has proven to be a highly effective methodology for the global optimization of unknown, expensive and multimodal functions. The ability to accurately model distributions over functions is critical to the effectiveness of Bayesian optimization. Although Gaussian processes provide a flexible prior over functions which can be queried efficiently, there are various classes of functions that remain difficult to model. One of the most frequently occurring of these is the class of non-stationary functions. The optimization of the hyperparameters of machine learning algorithms is a problem domain in which parameters are often manually transformed a priori, for example by optimizing in "log-space," to mitigate the effects of spatially-varying length scale. We develop a methodology for automatically learning a wide family of bijective transformations or warpings of the input space using the Beta cumulative distribution function. We further extend the warping framework to multi-task Bayesian optimization so that multiple tasks can be warped into a jointly stationary space. On a set of challenging benchmark optimization tasks, we observe that the inclusion of warping greatly improves on the state-of-the-art, producing better results faster and more reliably.

Machine learning algorithms frequently require careful tuning of model hyperparameters, regularization terms, and optimization parameters. Unfortunately, this tuning is often a "black art" that requires expert experience, unwritten rules of thumb, or sometimes brute-force search. Much more appealing is the idea of developing automatic approaches which can optimize the performance of a given learning algorithm to the task at hand. In this work, we consider the automatic tuning problem within the framework of Bayesian optimization, in which a learning algorithm's generalization performance is modeled as a sample from a Gaussian process (GP). The tractable posterior distribution induced by the GP leads to efficient use of the information gathered by previous experiments, enabling optimal choices about what parameters to try next. Here we show how the effects of the Gaussian process prior and the associated inference procedure can have a large impact on the success or failure of Bayesian optimization. We show that thoughtful choices can lead to results that exceed expert-level performance in tuning machine learning algorithms. We also describe new algorithms that take into account the variable cost (duration) of learning experiments and that can leverage the presence of multiple cores for parallel experimentation. We show that these proposed algorithms improve on previous automatic procedures and can reach or surpass human expert-level optimization on a diverse set of contemporary algorithms including latent Dirichlet allocation, structured SVMs and convolutional neural networks.

Unsupervised discovery of latent representations, in addition to being useful for density modeling, visualisation and exploratory data analysis, is also increasingly important for learning features relevant to discriminative tasks. Autoencoders, in particular, have proven to be an effective way to learn latent codes that reflect meaningful variations in data. A continuing challenge, however, is guiding an autoencoder toward representations that are useful for particular tasks. A complementary challenge is to find codes that are invariant to irrelevant transformations of the data. The most common way of introducing such problem-specific guidance in autoencoders has been through the incorporation of a parametric component that ties the latent representation to the label information. In this work, we argue that a preferable approach relies instead on a nonparametric guidance mechanism. Conceptually, it ensures that there exists a function that can predict the label information, without explicitly instantiating that function. The superiority of this guidance mechanism is confirmed on two datasets. In particular, this approach is able to incorporate invariance information (lighting, elevation, etc.) from the small NORB object recognition dataset and yields state-of-the-art performance for a single layer, non-convolutional network., Comment: 9 pages, 12 figures