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We study the clustering properties of fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that occurred during solar cycles 23 and 24. We apply two methods: the Max spectrum method can detect the predominant clusters and the de-clustering threshold time method provides details on the typical clustering properties and time scales. Our analysis shows that during the different phases of solar cycles 23 and 24, CMEs with speed $\geq 1000\ km/s$ preferentially occur as isolated events and in clusters with on average two members. However, clusters with more members appear particularly during the maximum phases of the solar cycles. Over the total period and in the maximum phases of solar cycles 23 and 24, about 50% are isolated events, 18% (12%) occur in clusters with 2 (3) members, and another 20% in larger clusters $\geq 4$, whereas in solar minimum fast CMEs tend to occur more frequently as isolated events (62%). During different solar cycle phases, the typical de-clustering time scales of fast CMEs are $\tau_c=28-32\ hrs$, irrespective of the very different occurrence frequencies of CMEs during solar minimum and maximum. These findings suggest that $\tau_c$ for extreme events may reflect the characteristic energy build-up time for large flare and CME-prolific active ARs. Associating statistically the clustering properties of fast CMEs with the Disturbance storm index Dst at Earth suggests that fast CMEs occuring in clusters tend to produce larger geomagnetic storms than isolated fast CMEs. This may be related to CME-CME interaction producing a more complex and stronger interaction with the Earth magnetosphere., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

We apply a nonlinear mean-field dynamo model which includes a budget equation for the dynamics of Wolf numbers to predict solar activity. This dynamo model takes into account the algebraic and dynamic nonlinearities of the alpha effect, where the equation for the dynamic nonlinearity is derived from the conservation law for the magnetic helicity. The budget equation for the evolution of the Wolf number is based on a formation mechanism of sunspots related to the negative effective magnetic pressure instability. This instability redistributes the magnetic flux produced by the mean-field dynamo. To predict solar activity on the time scale of one month we use a method based on a combination of the numerical solution of the nonlinear mean-field dynamo equations and the artificial neural network. A comparison of the results of the prediction of the solar activity with the observed Wolf numbers demonstrates a good agreement between the forecast and observations., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, jpp.cls, final version

Mutual quasi-periodicities near the solar-rotation period appear in time series based on the Earth's magnetic field, the interplanetary magnetic field, and signed solar-magnetic fields. Dominant among these is one at 27.03 +/- 0.02 days that has been highlighted by Neugebauer, et al. 2000, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 2315. Extension of their study in time and to different data reveals decadal epochs during which the ~ 27.0 day, a ~ 28.3 day, or other quasi-periods dominate the signal. Space-time eigenvalue analyses of time series in 30 solar latitude bands, based on synoptic maps of unsigned photospheric fields, lead to two maximally independent modes that account for almost 30% of the data variance. One mode spans 45 degrees of latitude in the northern hemisphere and the other one in the southern. The modes rotate around the Sun rigidly, not differentially, suggesting connection with the subsurface dynamo. Spectral analyses yield familiar dominant quasi periods 27.04 +/- 0.03 days in the North and at 28.24 +/- 0.03 days in the South. These are replaced during cycle 23 by one at 26.45 +/- 0.03 days in the North. The modes show no tendency for preferred longitudes separated by ~ 180 degrees., Comment: 22 pages including 10 figures

Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) are used to identify global patterns in solar and space data. PCA seeks orthogonal modes of the two-point correlation matrix constructed from a data set. It permits the identification of structures that remain coherent and correlated or which recur throughout a time series. ICA seeks for maximally independent modes and takes into account all order correlations of the data. We apply PCA to the interplanetary-magnetic-field polarity near one AU and to the 3.25R source-surface fields in the solar corona. The rotations of the two-sector structures of these systems vary together to high accuracy during the active interval of solar cycle 23. We then use PCA and ICA to hunt for preferred longitudes in northern hemisphere, Carrington maps of magnetic fields., Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures

Observations show that solar activity is distributed non-axisymmetrically, concentrating at "preferred longitudes". This indicates the important role of non-axisymmetric magnetic fields in the origin of solar activity. We investigate the generation of the non-axisymmetric fields and their coupling with axisymmetric solar magnetic field. Our kinematic generation (dynamo) model operating in a sphere includes solar differential rotation, which approximates the differential rotation obtained by inversion of helioseismic data, modelled distributions of the turbulent resistivity, non-axisymmetric mean helicity, and meridional circulation in the convection zone. We find that (1) the non-axisymmetric modes are localised near the base of the convection zone, where the formation of active regions starts, and at latitudes around $30^{\circ}$; (2) the coupling of non-axisymmetric and axisymmetric modes causes the non-axisymmetric mode to follow the solar cycle; the phase relations between the modes are found. (3) The rate of rotation of the first non-axisymmetric mode is close to that determined in the interplanetary space., Comment: 22 pages, 18 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

One of the key questions in solar physics that remains to be answered concerns the strength and the distribution of the magnetic fields at the base of the convection zone. The flux tube dynamics requires that toroidal fields of strength as large as 100 kilogauss be present at the base of the convection zone. The kinetic-magnetic equipartition argument leads to smaller field strengths. For possible detection of these relatively small (compared to pressure effects) fields by helioseismic methods it is important to know the range of the field strengths and their distribution. We estimate a range for the toroidal magnetic field strengths at the base of the convection zone using dynamo simulations in a spherical shell. These simulations involve the distribution of rotation provided by helioseismic inversions of the GONG and MDI data. Combining the simulations with the observed line-of-sight surface poloidal field we extract the spatial pattern and magnitude of the mean toroidal magnetic field at the base of the convection zone., Comment: To be published in the proceedings of "SOHO 12 / GONG+ 2002 Local and Global Helioseismology: The Present and Future" October 27 to November 1, 2002 Big Bear Lake, California

Below the scale of supergranules we find that cellular flows are present in the solar photosphere at two distinct size scales, approximately 2 Mm and 4 Mm, with distinct characteristic times. Simultaneously present in the flow is a non-cellular component, with turbulent scaling properties and containing 30% of the flow energy. These results are obtained by means of wavelet spectral analysis and modeling of vertical photospheric motions in a 2-hour sequence of 120 SOHO/MDI, high resolution, Doppler images near disk center. The wavelets permit detection of specific local flow patterns corresponding to convection cells., Comment: Accepted for Solar Physics. 16 pages including 7 figures

The Sun provides an excellent natural laboratory for nonlinear phenomena. We use motions of magnetic bright points on the solar surface, at the smallest scales yet observed, to study the small scale dynamics of the photospheric plasma. The paths of the bright points are analyzed within a continuous time random walk framework. Their spatial and temporal scaling suggest that the observed motions are the walks of imperfectly correlated tracers on a turbulent fluid flow in the lanes between granular convection cells., Comment: Now Accepted by Physical Review Letters

As an extension of Lee et al. (2013), solar cycle variation of carbon monoxide (CO) is analyzed with MLS observation, which covers more than thirteen years (2004-2017) including maximum of solar cycle 24. Being produced primarily by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, the variations of the mesospheric CO concentration are largely driven by the solar cycle modulated ultraviolet (UV) variation. This solar signal extends down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex, showing a time lag that is consistent with the average descent velocity. To characterize a global distribution of the solar impact, MLS CO is correlated with the SORCE measured total solar irradiance (TSI) and UV. As high as 0.8 in most of the polar mesosphere, the linear correlation coefficients between CO and UV/TSI are more robust than those found in the previous work. The photochemical contribution explains most (68%) of the total variance of CO while the dynamical contribution accounts for 21% of the total variance at upper mesosphere. The photochemistry driven CO anomaly signal is extended in the tropics by vertical mixing. The solar cycle signal in CO is further examined with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) 3.5 simulation by implementing two different modeled Spectral Solar Irradiances (SSIs): SRPM 2012 and NRLSSI. The model simulations underestimate the mean CO amount and solar cycle variations of CO, by a factor of 3, compared to those obtained from MLS observation. Different inputs of the solar spectrum have small impacts on CO variation.

More than eight years (2004-2012) of carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed. The mesospheric CO, largely produced by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, is sensitive to the solar irradiance variability. The long-term variation of observed mesospheric MLS CO concentrations at high latitudes is likely driven by the solar-cycle modulated UV forcing. Despite of different CO abundances in the southern and northern hemispheric winter, the solar-cycle dependence appears to be similar. This solar signal is further carried down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex. Aura MLS CO is compared with the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) total solar irradiance (TSI) and also with the spectral irradiance in the far ultraviolet (FUV) region from the SORCE Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). Significant positive correlation (up to 0.6) is found between CO and FUVTSI in a large part of the upper atmosphere. The distribution of this positive correlation in the mesosphere is consistent with the expectation of CO changes induced by the solar irradiance variations.

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The Aqua spacecraft decadal time span generated a vast volume of data that can be used for climate change studies. Here we use these data to investigate the tropical circulation response to global warming during the last decade. We use the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advance Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) data obtained on Aqua spacecraft to determine the trends in the surface and mid- troposphere temperatures, as well as trends in cloudiness, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and precipitation over the West and East Pacific in 2002-2011. The Aqua instruments deliver accurate, simultaneous measurements of the state of the atmosphere twice per day. We find that the tropical (Walker) circulation over Pacific Ocean has been accelerating during this last decade.

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Archaeology can provide insight into interactions of climate change and human activities in sensitive areas such as the Sahara, to the benefit of both disciplines. Such analyses can help set bounds on climate change projections, perhaps identify elements of tipping points, and provide constraints on models. The opportunity exists to more precisely constrain the relationship of natural solar and climate interactions, improving understanding of present and future anthropogenic forcing. We are beginning to explore the relationship of human occupation of the Sahara and long-term solar irradiance variations synergetic with changes in atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns. Archaeological and climate records for the last 12 K years are gaining adequate precision to make such comparisons possible. We employ a range of climate records taken over the globe (e.g. Antarctica, Greenland, Cariaco Basin, West African Ocean cores, records from caves) to identify the timing and spatial patterns affecting Saharan climate to compare with archaeological records. We see correlation in changing ocean temperature patterns approx. contemporaneous with drying of the Sahara approx. 6K years BP. The role of radar images and other remote sensing in this work includes providing a geographically comprehensive geomorphic overview of this key area. Such coverage is becoming available from the Japanese PALSAR radar system, which can guide field work to collect archaeological and climatic data to further constrain the climate change chronology and link to models. Our initial remote sensing efforts concentrate on the Gilf Kebir area of Egypt.

We investigate the possibility that solar variability influences North African climate by using annual records of the water level of the Nile collected in 622-1470 A.D. The time series of these records are nonstationary, in that the amplitudes and frequencies of the quasi-periodic variations are time-dependent. We apply the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique especially designed to deal with such time series. We identify two characteristic timescales in the records that may be linked to solar variability: a period of about 88 years and one exceeding 200 years. We show that these timescales are present in the number of auroras reported per decade in the Northern Hemisphere at the same time. The 11-year cycle is seen in the Nile's high-water level variations, but it is damped in the low-water anomalies. We suggest a possible physical link between solar variability and the low-frequency variations of the Nile water level. This link involves the influence of solar variability on the atmospheric Northern Annual Mode and on its North Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean patterns that affect the rainfall over the sources of the Nile in eastern equatorial Africa.

We study CMEs observed by LASCO to have plane of the sky velocities exceeding 1500 km/sec. We find that these extremely fast CMEs are typically associated with flares accompanied by erupting prominences. Our results are consistent with a single CME initiation process that consists of three stages. The initial stage is brought about by the emergence of new magnetic flux, which interacts with the pre-existing magnetic configuration and results in a slow rise of the magnetic structure. The second stage is a fast reconnection phase with flaring, filament eruption and a sudden increase of the rise velocity of the magnetic structure (CME). The third stage consists of propagation in the corona. We discuss the sources of these CMEs and the need for improved understanding of the first and third stages.

Using the assimilated data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, we show that the extratropical signature of the tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is seen mostly in the North Annular Mode (NAM) of atmospheric variability. To understand the extratropical manifestation of the QBO, we discuss two effects that have been suggested earlier: (1) The extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO modulation of the planetary wave flux, and (2) the extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO-induced meridional circulation. We found that the first effect is seen in wave 1 in the beginning of winter and in wave 2 in the end of winter. The QBO-induced circulation affects midlatitude regions over the entire winter. To investigate the QBONAM coupling, we use an equation that relates the stream function of the meridional circulation and the polar cap averaged temperature, which is a proxy for the NAM index. In addition to the annual (omega)a and the QBO frequency (omega)Q the spectrum of its solutions indicates the satellite frequencies at (omega)a +/- (o.

We show that the reconstructed sensitivity of the sea level temperature to long term solar forcing in the Northern Hemisphere is in very good agreement with the empirical temperature pattern corresponding to changes of the North Annular Mode (NAM).

Observations show that solar activity is distributed nonaxisymmetrically, concentrating at preferred longitudes.

We have found that the excitation of the North Annular Mode (NAM) of the wintertime geopotential height anomalies between 10 hPa and 1000 hPa is influenced by solar cycle changes and the effect is highly statistically significant.

We will briefly review recent studies showing that stratospheric disturbances propagate to the troposphere and that UV variability affects the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere in a coherent fashion. We will outline a mechanism by which solar-stratosphere-troposphere interaction may influence climate and discuss a simple model that includes the basic elements of this mechanism.

We use the aa index of geomagnetic activity recorded for 130 years as a proxy for the strenght and phase properties of the solar dynamo.

An 11-year variation is shown here to exist in an index of the atmospheric variability defined as the difference between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices.

Sunspots, seen as cool regions on the surface of the Sun, are a thermal phenomenon. Sunspots are always associated with bipolar magnetic loops that break through the solar surface.

In this talk a proposal to use the Faraday rotation of the linear polarized radio signals to determine the magnetic field of the solar corona will be discussed.

Direct measurements of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field acquired over more than three solar cycles both near Earth and in interplanetary space are used to search for signatures of a persistent dependence of solar wind properties on solar longitude.

ENSO (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation) is considered as a stochastic driver that excites the atmospheric anomaly states, such as Pacific North American pattern. This can make the 11 year solar activity forcing feasible to climate through stochastic resonance -- a phenomenon that amplifies a weak input to a nonlinear bistable system by the assistance of noise.

The development of new technologies and the miniaturization of sensors bring new requirements for our ability to predict and forecast hazardous space weather conditions.

High energy cosmic rays may influence the formation of clouds, and thus can have an impact on weather and climate. Cosmic rays in the solar wind are incident on the magnetosphere boundary and are then transmitted through the magnetosphere and atmosphere to reach the upper troposphere.

The interaction of magnetic flux tubes as a source of activity is widely discussed in astrophysics.

Here we present a design for a high-performance, compact, low-cost flight instrument that measures velocity and magnetic fields on the photospere. This instrument is called the Compact Doppler Magnetograph, or CDM, and is based on the magneto-optical filter invented by A. Cacciani.