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This paper considers substitution patterns in the perturbed utility route choice model. We provide a general result that determines the marginal change in link flows following a marginal change in link costs across the network. We give a general condition on the network structure under which all paths are necessarily substitutes and an example in which some paths are complements. The presence of complementarity contradicts a result in a previous paper in this journal; we point out and correct the error.

Suppose in a stable urban traffic system populated only by human driven vehicles (HDVs), a given proportion (e.g. 10%) is replaced by a fleet of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs), which share information and pursue a collective goal. Suppose these vehicles are centrally coordinated and differ from HDVs only by their collective capacities allowing them to make more efficient routing decisions before the travel on a given day begins. Suppose there is a choice between two routes and every day each driver makes a decision which route to take. Human drivers maximize their utility. CAVs might optimize different goals, such as the total travel time of the fleet. We show that in this plausible futuristic setting, the strategy CAVs are allowed to adopt may result in human drivers either benefitting or being systematically disadvantaged and urban networks becoming more or less optimal. Consequently, some regulatory measures might become indispensable.

The behavior of cyclists when choosing the path to follow along a road network is not uniform. Some of them are mostly interested in minimizing the travelled distance, but some others may also take into account other features such as safety of the roads or pollution. Individuating the different groups of users, estimating the numerical consistency of each of these groups, and reporting the weights assigned by each group to different characteristics of the road network, is quite relevant. Indeed, when decision makers need to assign some budget for infrastructural interventions, they need to know the impact of their decisions, and this is strictly related to the way users perceive different features of the road network. In this paper, we propose an optimization approach to detect the weights assigned to different road features by various user groups, leveraging knowledge of the true paths followed by them, accessible, for example, through data collected by bike-sharing services.

This paper proposes a comprehensive approach for modeling pedestrian wayfinding behavior in complex buildings. This study employs two types of discrete choice models (i.e., MNL and PSL) featuring pedestrian route choice behavior, and three multivariate linear regression (MLR) models featuring the overall wayfinding performance and observation behavior (e.g., hesitation behavior and head rotation). Behavioral and questionnaire data featuring pedestrian wayfinding behavior and personal information were collected using a Virtual Reality experiment. Four wayfinding tasks were designed to determine how personal, infrastructure, and route characteristics affect indoor pedestrian wayfinding behavior on three levels, including route choice, wayfinding performance, and observation behavior. We find that pedestrian route choice behavior is primarily influenced by route characteristics, whereas wayfinding performance is also influenced by personal characteristics. Observation behavior is mainly influenced by task complexity, personal characteristics, and local properties of the routes that offer route information. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first attempt to investigate the impact of the same comprehensive set of variables on various metrics feature wayfinding behavior simultaneously.

As one of the most fundamental concepts in transportation science, Wardrop equilibrium (WE) has always had a relatively weak behavioral underpinning. To strengthen this foundation, one must reckon with bounded rationality in human decision-making processes, such as the lack of accurate information, limited computing power, and sub-optimal choices. This retreat from behavioral perfectionism in the literature, however, was typically accompanied by a conceptual modification of WE. Here, we show that giving up perfect rationality need not force a departure from WE. On the contrary, WE can be reached with global stability in a routing game played by boundedly rational travelers. We achieve this result by developing a day-to-day (DTD) dynamical model that mimics how travelers gradually adjust their route valuations, hence choice probabilities, based on past experiences. Our model, called cumulative logit (CumLog), resembles the classical DTD models but makes a crucial change: whereas the classical models assume routes are valued based on the cost averaged over historical data, ours values the routes based on the cost accumulated. To describe route choice behaviors, the CumLog model only uses two parameters, one accounting for the rate at which the future route cost is discounted in the valuation relative to the past ones and the other describing the sensitivity of route choice probabilities to valuation differences. We prove tha CumLog always converges to WE, regardless of the initial point, as long as the behavioral parameters satisfy certain mild conditions. Our theory thus upholds WE's role as a benchmark in transportation systems analysis. It also resolves the theoretical challenge posed by Harsanyi's instability problem by explaining why equally good routes at WE are selected with different probabilities.

Modeling and simulation approaches that express crowd movement with mathematical models are widely and actively studied to understand crowd movement and resolve crowd accidents. Existing literature on crowd modeling focuses on only the decision-making of walking behavior. However, the decision-making of route choice, which is a higher-level decision, should also be modeled for constructing more practical simulations. Furthermore, the reproducibility evaluation of the crowd simulation incorporating the route choice model using real data is insufficient. Therefore, we generalize and propose a crowd simulation framework that includes actual crowd movement measurements, route choice model estimation, and crowd simulator construction. We use the Discrete choice model as the route choice model and the Social force model as the walking model. In experiments, we measure crowd movements during an evacuation drill in a theater and a firework event where tens of thousands of people moved and prove that the crowd simulation incorporating the route choice model can reproduce the real large-scale crowd movement more accurately., Comment: This is the full version of the paper submitted as an extended abstract for AAMAS 2023

Over the past decade, there has been a surge of interest in the transport community in the application of agent-based simulation models to evaluate flexible transit solutions characterized by different degrees of short-term flexibility in routing and scheduling. A central modeling decision in the development of an agent-based simulation model for the evaluation of flexible transit is how one chooses to represent the mode- and route-choices of travelers. The real-time adaptive behavior of travelers is intuitively important to model in the presence of a flexible transit service, where the routing and scheduling of vehicles is highly dependent on supply-demand dynamics at a closer to real-time temporal resolution. We propose a utility-based transit route-choice model with representation of within-day adaptive travel behavior and between-day learning where station-based fixed-transit, flexible-transit, and active-mode alternatives may be dynamically combined in a single path. To enable experimentation, this route-choice model is implemented within an agent-based dynamic public transit simulation framework. Model properties are first explored in a choice between fixed- and flexible-transit modes for a toy network. The framework is then applied to illustrate level-of-service trade-offs and analyze traveler mode choices within a mixed fixed- and flexible transit system in a case study based on a real-life branched transit service in Stockholm, Sweden., Comment: 33 pages, 9 figures, preprint

This paper presents the equilibrium analysis of a game composed of heterogeneous electric vehicles (EVs) and a power distribution system operator (DSO) as the players, and charging station operators (CSOs) and a transportation network operator (TNO) as coordinators. Each EV tries to pick a charging station as its destination and a route to get there at the same time. However, the traffic and electrical load congestion on the roads and charging stations lead to the interdependencies between the optimal decisions of EVs. CSOs and the TNO need to apply some tolling to control such congestion. On the other hand, the pricing at charging stations depends on real-time distributional locational marginal pricing, which is determined by the DSO after solving the optimal power flow over the power distribution network. This paper also takes into account the local and the coupling/infrastructure constraints of EVs, transportation and distribution networks. This problem is modeled as a generalized aggregative game, and then a decentralized learning method is proposed to obtain an equilibrium point of the game, which is known as variational generalized Wardrop equilibrium. The existence of such an equilibrium point and the convergence of the proposed algorithm to it are proven. We undertake numerical studies on the Savannah city model and the IEEE 33-bus distribution network and investigate the impact of various characteristics on demand and prices.

Route choice modeling is a fundamental task in transportation planning and demand forecasting. Classical methods generally adopt the discrete choice model (DCM) framework with linear utility functions and high-level route characteristics. While several recent studies have started to explore the applicability of deep learning for route choice modeling, they are limited to path-based models with relatively simple model architectures and relying on predefined choice sets. Existing link-based models can capture the dynamic nature of link choices within the trip without the need for choice set generation, but still assume linear relationships and link-additive features. To address these issues, this study proposes a general deep inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) framework for link-based route choice modeling, which is capable of incorporating diverse features (of the state, action and trip context) and capturing complex relationships. Specifically, we adapt an adversarial IRL model to the route choice problem for efficient estimation of context-dependent reward functions without value iteration. Experiment results based on taxi GPS data from Shanghai, China validate the superior prediction performance of the proposed model over conventional DCMs and other imitation learning baselines, even for destinations unseen in the training data. Further analysis show that the model exhibits competitive computational efficiency and reasonable interpretability. The proposed methodology provides a new direction for future development of route choice models. It is general and can be adaptable to other route choice problems across different modes and networks.

This work concerns the estimation of recursive route choice models in the situation that the trip observations are incomplete, i.e., there are unconnected links (or nodes) in the observations. A direct approach to handle this issue would be intractable because enumerating all paths between unconnected links (or nodes) in a real network is typically not possible. We exploit an expectation-maximization (EM) method that allows to deal with the missing-data issue by alternatively performing two steps of sampling the missing segments in the observations and solving maximum likelihood estimation problems. Moreover, observing that the EM method would be expensive, we propose a new estimation method based on the idea that the choice probabilities of unconnected link observations can be exactly computed by solving systems of linear equations. We further design a new algorithm, called as decomposition-composition (DC), that helps reduce the number of systems of linear equations to be solved and speed up the estimation. We compare our proposed algorithms with some standard baselines using a dataset from a real network and show that the DC algorithm outperforms the other approaches in recovering missing information in the observations. Our methods work with most of the recursive route choice models proposed in the literature, including the recursive logit, nested recursive logit, or discounted recursive models., Comment: 26 pages

Traditional network models encapsulate travel behavior among all origin-destination pairs based on a simplified and generic utility function. Typically, the utility function consists of travel time solely and its coefficients are equated to estimates obtained from stated preference data. While this modeling strategy is reasonable, the inherent sampling bias in individual-level data may be further amplified over network flow aggregation, leading to inaccurate flow estimates. This data must be collected from surveys or travel diaries, which may be labor intensive, costly and limited to a small time period. To address these limitations, this study extends classical bi-level formulations to estimate travelers' utility functions with multiple attributes using system-level data. We formulate a methodology grounded on non-linear least squares to statistically infer travelers' utility function in the network context using traffic counts, traffic speeds, traffic incidents and sociodemographic information, among other attributes. The analysis of the mathematical properties of the optimization problem and of its pseudo-convexity motivate the use of normalized gradient descent. We also develop a hypothesis test framework to examine statistical properties of the utility function coefficients and to perform attributes selection. Experiments on synthetic data show that the coefficients are consistently recovered and that hypothesis tests are a reliable statistic to identify which attributes are determinants of travelers' route choices. Besides, a series of Monte-Carlo experiments suggest that statistical inference is robust to noise in the Origin-Destination matrix and in the traffic counts, and to various levels of sensor coverage. The methodology is also deployed at a large scale using real-world multi-source data in Fresno, CA collected before and during the COVID-19 outbreak., Comment: 69 pages, 22 figures

This paper investigates the performance, in terms of choice probabilities and correlations, of existing and new specifications of closed-form route choice models with flexible correlation patterns, namely the Link Nested Logit (LNL), the Paired Combinatorial Logit (PCL) and the more recent Combination of Nested Logit (CoNL) models. Following a consolidated track in the literature, choice probabilities and correlations of the Multinomial Probit (MNP) model by (Daganzo and Sheffi, 1977) are taken as target. Laboratory experiments on small/medium-size networks are illustrated, also leveraging a procedure for practical calculation of correlations of any GEV models, proposed by (Marzano 2014). Results show that models with inherent limitations in the coverage of the domain of feasible correlations yield unsatisfactory performance, whilst the specifications of the CoNL proposed in the paper appear the best in fitting both MNP correlations and probabilities. Performance of the models are appreciably ameliorated by introducing lower bounds to the nesting parameters. Overall, the paper provides guidance for the practical application of tested models., Comment: 32 pages, 11 figures, 8 tables

Human route choice is undeniably one of the key contributing factors towards traffic dynamics. However, most existing macroscopic traffic models are typically concerned with driving behavior and do not incorporate human route choice behavior models in their formulation. In this paper, we propose a socio-technical macroscopic traffic model that characterizes the traffic states using human route choice attributes. Essentially, such model provides a framework for capturing the Cyber-Physical-Social coupling in smart transportation systems. To derive this model, we first use Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) to model the human passengers' route choice under bounded rationality. These choices are assumed to be influenced by traffic alerts and other incomplete traffic information. Next, we assume that the vehicles are operating under a non-cooperative cruise control scenario. Accordingly, human route choice segregates the traffic into multiple classes where each class corresponds to a specific route between an origin-destination pair. Thereafter, we derive a Mean Field Game (MFG) limit of this non-cooperative game to obtain a macroscopic model which embeds the human route choice attribute. Finally, we analyze the mathematical characteristics of the proposed model and present simulation studies to illustrate the model behavior.

Although routing applications increasingly affect individual mobility choices, their impact on collective traffic dynamics remains largely unknown. Smart communication technologies provide accurate traffic data for choosing one route over other alternatives, yet inherent delays undermine the potential usefulness of such information. Here we introduce and analyze a simple model of collective traffic dynamics which result from route choice relying on outdated traffic information. We find for sufficiently small information delays that traffic flows are stable against perturbations. However, delays beyond a bifurcation point induce self-organized flow oscillations of increasing amplitude -- congestion arises. Providing delayed information averaged over sufficiently long periods of time or, more intriguingly, reducing the number of vehicles adhering to the route recommendations may prevent such delay-induced congestion. We reveal the fundamental mechanisms underlying these phenomena in a minimal two-road model and demonstrate their generality in microscopic, agent-based simulations of a road network system. Our findings provide a way to conceptually understand system-wide traffic dynamics caused by broadly used non-instantaneous routing information and suggest how resulting unintended collective traffic states could be avoided., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures; additional appendix section, included link to code and data

We propose a route choice model in which traveler behavior is represented as a utility maximizing assignment of flow across an entire network under a flow conservation constraint}. Substitution between routes depends on how much they overlap. {\tr The model is estimated considering the full set of route alternatives, and no choice set generation is required. Nevertheless, estimation requires only linear regression and is very fast. Predictions from the model can be computed using convex optimization, and computation is straightforward even for large networks. We estimate and validate the model using a large dataset comprising 1,337,096 GPS traces of trips in the Greater Copenhagen road network.

Digital technology is fundamentally transforming human mobility. Route choices in particular are greatly affected by the availability of traffic data, increased connectivity of data sources and cheap access to computational resources. Digital routing technologies promise more efficient route choices for the individual and a reduction of congestion for cities. Yet, it is unclear how widespread adoption of such technologies actually alters the collective traffic flow dynamics on complex street networks. Here, we answer this question for the dynamics of urban commuting under digital route choice support. Building on the class of congestion games we study the evolution of commuting behavior as a fraction of the population relies on, but also contributes to, crowdsourced traffic information. The remainder of the population makes their route choices based on personal experience. We show how digital route choice support may cause a separation of commuter flows into technology and non-technology users along different routes. This collective behavior may fuel systemic inefficiencies and lead to an increase of congestion as a consequence. These results highlight new research directions in the field of algorithmic design of route choice decision support protocols to help fight congestion, emissions and other systemic inefficiencies in the course of increasing urbanization and digitization.

Several route choice models developed in the literature were based on a relatively small number of observations. With the extensive use of tracking devices in recent surveys, there is a possibility to obtain insights with respect to the traveler's choice behavior. In this paper, different path generation algorithms are evaluated using a large GPS trajectory dataset. The dataset contains 6,000 observations from Tel-Aviv metropolitan area. An initial analysis is performed by generating a single route based on the shortest path. Almost 60% percent of the 6,000 observations can be covered (assuming a threshold of 80% overlap) using a single path. This result significantly contrasts previous literature findings. Link penalty, link elimination, simulation and via-node methods are applied to generate route sets, and the consistency of the algorithms are compared. A modified link penalty method, which accounts for preference of using higher hierarchical roads, provides a route set with 97% coverage (80% overlap threshold). The via-node method produces route set with satisfying coverage, and generates routes that are more heterogeneous (in terms number of links and routes ratio)., Comment: hEART 2020 : 9th Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation

The objective of this paper is to study the effect of travel time information on day-to-day driver route choice behavior. A real-world experimental study is designed to have participants repeatedly choose between two alternative routes for five origin-destination pairs over multiple days after providing them with dynamically updated travel time information (average travel time and travel time variability). The results demonstrate that historical travel time information enhances behavioral rationality by 10\% on average and reduces inertial tendencies to increase risk seeking in the gain domain. Furthermore, expected travel time information is demonstrated to be more effective than travel time variability information in enhancing rational behavior when drivers have limited experiences. After drivers gain sufficient knowledge of routes, however, the difference in behavior associated with the two information types becomes insignificant. The results also demonstrate that, when drivers lack experience, the faster less reliable route is more attractive than the slower more reliable route. However, with cumulative experiences, drivers become more willing to take the more reliable route given that they are reluctant to become risk seekers once experience is gained. Furthermore, the effect of information on driver behavior differs significantly by participant and trip, which is, to a large extent, dependent on personal traits and trip characteristics.

We study the routing policy choice problems in a stochastic time-dependent (STD) network. A routing policy is defined as a decision rule applied at the end of each link that maps the realized traffic condition to the decision on the link to take next. Two types of routing policy choice models are formulated with perfect online information (POI): recursive logit model and non-recursive logit model. In the non-recursive model, a choice set of routing policies between an origin-destination (OD) pair is generated, and a probabilistic choice is modeled at the origin, while the choice of the next link at each link is a deterministic execution of the chosen routing policy. In the recursive model, the probabilistic choice of the next link is modeled at each link, following the framework of dynamic discrete choice models. The two models are further compared in terms of computational efficiency in estimation and prediction, and flexibility in systematic utility specification and modeling correlation.

Pedestrians often need to decide between different routes they can use to reach their intended destinations, both during emergencies and in their daily lives. This route-choice behavior is important in determining traffic management, evacuation efficiency and building design. Here, we use field observations and a virtual experiment to study the route choice behavior of pedestrians around obstacles delimiting exit routes and examine the influence of three factors, namely the local distance to route starting points and the pedestrian density and walking speeds along routes. Crucially, both field study and virtual experiment consider the same scenario which allows us to directly assess the validity of testing pedestrian behavior in virtual environments. We find that in both data sets the proportion of people who choose a closer exit route increases as the difference in distance between exit route starting points increases. Pedestrians' choices in our data also depend on pedestrian density along routes, with people preferring less used routes. Our results thus confirm previously established route choice mechanisms and we can predict over 74% of choices based on these factors. The qualitative agreement in results between the field study and the virtual experiment suggests that in simple route-choice scenarios, such as the one we investigate here, virtual experiments can be a valid experimental technique for studying pedestrian behavior. We therefore provide much-needed empirical support for the emerging paradigm of experiments in virtual environments.

With the prevalence of MaaS systems, route choice models need to consider characteristics unique to them. MaaS systems tend to involve service systems with fleets of vehicles; as a result, the available service capacity depends on the choices of other travelers in different parts of the system. We model this with a new concept of "congestible capacity"; that is, link capacities are a function of flow instead of link costs. This dependency is also non-separable; the capacity in one link can depend on flows from multiple links. An offline-online estimation method is introduced to capture the structural effects that flows have on capacities and the resulting impacts on route choice utilities. The method is first applied to obtain unique congestible capacity shadow prices in a multimodal network to verify the capability to capture congestion effects on capacities. The capacities are shown to vary and impact the utility of a route. The method is validated using real system data from Citi Bike in New York City. The results show that the model can fit to the data quite well and performs better than a baseline modeling approach that ignores congestible capacity effects. By relating the route choice to congestible capacities using a random utility model, modelers can monitor and quantify the impacts to traveler consumer surplus in real time. Applications of the model and online method include monitoring capacity effects on consumer surplus, using the model to direct incentives programs for rebalancing and other revenue management strategies, and to guide resource allocation to mitigate consumer surplus impacts due to disruptions from incidents.

Human traffic along roads can be a major vector for infectious diseases and invasive species. Though most road traffic is local, a small number of long-distance trips can suffice to move an invasion or disease front forward. Therefore, understanding how many agents travel over long distances and which routes they choose is key to successful management of diseases and invasions. Stochastic gravity models have been used to estimate the distribution of trips between origins and destinations of agents. However, in large-scale systems it is hard to collect the data required to fit these models, as the number of long-distance travellers is small, and origins and destinations can have multiple access points. Therefore, gravity models often provide only relative measures of the agent flow. Furthermore, gravity models yield no insights into which roads agents use. We resolve these issues by combining a stochastic gravity model with a stochastic route choice model. Our hybrid model can be fitted to survey data collected at roads that are used by many long-distance travellers. This decreases the sampling effort, allows us to obtain absolute predictions of both vector pressure and pathways, and permits rigorous model validation. After introducing our approach in general terms, we demonstrate its benefits by applying it to the potential invasion of zebra and quagga mussels (Dreissena spp.) to the Canadian province British Columbia. The model yields an R-squared value of 0.73 for variance-corrected agent counts at survey locations., Comment: Keywords: gravity model; hierarchical model; infectious disease; invasive species; propagule pressure; route choice model; vector; zebra mussel

Route choice is often modelled as a two-step procedure in which travellers choose their routes from small sets of promising candidates. Many methods developed to identify such choice sets rely on assumptions about the mechanisms behind the route choice and require corresponding data sets. Furthermore, existing approaches often involve considerable complexity or perform many repeated shortest path queries. This makes it difficult to apply these methods in comprehensive models with numerous origin-destination pairs. In this paper, we address these issues by developing an algorithm that efficiently identifies locally optimal routes. Such paths arise from travellers acting rationally on local scales, whereas unknown factors may affect the routes on larger scales. Though methods identifying locally optimal routes are available already, these algorithms rely on approximations and return only few, heuristically chosen paths for specific origin-destination pairs. This conflicts with the demands of route choice models, where an exhaustive search for many origins and destinations would be necessary. We therefore extend existing algorithms to return (almost) all admissible paths between a large number of origin-destination pairs. We test our algorithm on a road network modelling the Canadian province British Columbia and analyze the distribution of locally optimal paths in the province., Comment: Keywords: alternative paths; choice set; local optimality; road network; route choice

Route Choice Models predict the route choices of travelers traversing an urban area. Most of the route choice models link route characteristics of alternative routes to those chosen by the drivers. The models play an important role in prediction of traffic levels on different routes and thus assist in development of efficient traffic management strategies that result in minimizing traffic delay and maximizing effective utilization of transport system. High fidelity route choice models are required to predict traffic levels with higher accuracy. Existing route choice models do not take into account dynamic contextual conditions such as the occurrence of an accident, the socio-cultural and economic background of drivers, other human behaviors, the dynamic personal risk level, etc. As a result, they can only make predictions at an aggregate level and for a fixed set of contextual factors. For higher fidelity, it is highly desirable to use a model that captures significance of subjective or contextual factors in route choice. This paper presents a novel approach for developing high-fidelity route choice models with increased predictive power by augmenting existing aggregate level baseline models with information on drivers' responses to contextual factors obtained from Stated Choice Experiments carried out in an Immersive Virtual Environment through the use of knowledge distillation., Comment: Paper was accepted at the 2019 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN 2019)

We propose a microscopic decision model for route choice based on discrete choice theory. The correlation of overlapping routes is included in the random portions of the utility explicitly. For computational efficiency, we restrict the choice set to the turning possibilities at the next intersection, assuming shortest paths to the destination afterwards. The proposed decision model also regards traffic conditions (e.g. traffic lights, long queues) such that drivers may revise their previously taken decision. Due to its compatibility to already existing microscopic traffic flow models, the proposed route choice model can be readily simulated with available software. Combined, the proposed decision model features realistic behavior, i.e., adaptive choice based on incomplete information and simultaneously allows for a straightforward implementation.

This paper analyses a class of route choice models with closed-form probability expressions, namely, Generalized Multivariate Extreme Value (GMEV) models. A large group of these models emerge from different utility formulas that combine systematic utility and random error terms. Twelve models are captured in a single discrete choice framework. The additive utility formula leads to the known logit family, being multinomial, path-size, paired combinatorial and link-nested. For the multiplicative formulation only the multinomial and path-size weibit models have been identified; this study also identifies the paired combinatorial and link-nested variations, and generalizes the path-size variant. Furthermore, a new traveller's decision rule based on the multiplicative utility formula with a reference route is presented. Here the traveller chooses exclusively based on the differences between routes. This leads to four new GMEV models. We assess the models qualitatively based on a generic structure of route utility with random foreseen travel times, for which we empirically identify that the variance of utility should be different from thus far assumed for multinomial probit and logit-kernel models. The expected travellers' behaviour and model-behaviour under simple network changes are analysed. Furthermore, all models are estimated and validated on an illustrative network example with long distance and short distance origin-destination pairs. The new multiplicative models based on differences outperform the additive models in both tests.

We study dynamic network flows and introduce a notion of instantaneous dynamic equilibrium (IDE) requiring that for any positive inflow into an edge, this edge must lie on a currently shortest path towards the respective sink. We measure current shortest path length by current waiting times in queues plus physical travel times. As our main results, we show: 1. existence and constructive computation of IDE flows for single-source single-sink networks assuming constant network inflow rates, 2. finite termination of IDE flows for multi-source single-sink networks assuming bounded and finitely lasting inflow rates, 3. the existence of IDE flows for multi-source multi-sink instances assuming general measurable network inflow rates, 4. the existence of a complex single-source multi-sink instance in which any IDE flow is caught in cycles and flow remains forever in the network., Comment: 40 pages, shorter version published in the "Proceedings of the 20th Conference on Integer Programming and Combinatorial Optimization, 2019"

Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management (ATFCM) is one of the constituent parts of Air Traffic Management (ATM). The goal of ATFCM is to make airport and airspace capacity meet traffic demand and, when capacity opportunities are exhausted, optimise traffic flows to meet the available capacity. One of the key enablers of ATFCM is the accurate estimation of future traffic demand. The available information (schedules, flight plans, etc.) and its associated level of uncertainty differ across the different ATFCM planning phases, leading to qualitative differences between the types of forecasting that are feasible at each time horizon. While abundant research has been conducted on tactical trajectory prediction (i.e., during the day of operations), trajectory prediction in the pre-tactical phase, when few or no flight plans are available, has received much less attention. As a consequence, the methods currently in use for pre-tactical traffic forecast are still rather rudimentary, often resulting in suboptimal ATFCM decision making. This paper proposes a machine learning approach for the prediction of airlines route choices between two airports as a function of route characteristics, such as flight efficiency, air navigation charges and expected level of congestion. Different predictive models based on multinomial logistic regression and decision trees are formulated and calibrated with historical traffic data, and a critical evaluation of each model is conducted. We analyse the predictive power of each model in terms of its ability to forecast traffic volumes at the level of charging zones, proving significant potential to enhance pre-tactical traffic forecast. We conclude by discussing the limitations and room for improvement of the proposed approach, as well as the future developments required to produce reliable traffic forecasts at a higher spatial and temporal resolution., Comment: Submitted for review to Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies

Computer-based simulation of pedestrian dynamics reached meaningful results in the last decade, thanks to empirical evidences and acquired knowledge fitting fundamental diagram constraints and space utilization. Moreover, computational models for pedestrian wayfinding often neglect extensive empirical evidences supporting the calibration and validation phase of simulations. The paper presents the results of a set of controlled experiments (with human volunteers) designed and performed to understand pedestrian's route choice. The setting offers alternative paths to final destinations, at different crowding conditions. Results show that the length of paths and level of congestion influence decisions (negative feedback), as well as imitative behaviour of "emergent leaders" choosing a new path (positive feedback). A novel here illustrated model for the simulation of pedestrian route choice captures such evidences, encompassing both the tendency to avoid congestion and to follow emerging leaders. The found conflicting tendencies are modelled with the introduction of a utility function allowing a consistent calibration over the achieved results. A demonstration of the simulated dynamics on a larger scenario will be also illustrated in the paper., Comment: Pre-print of the paper presented at the 8th International Conference on Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics (PED2016), Hefei, China - Oct 17 -- 21, 2016

Nowadays, metro systems play an important role in meeting the urban transportation demand in large cities. The understanding of passenger route choice is critical for public transit management. The wide deployment of Automated Fare Collection(AFC) systems opens up a new opportunity. However, only each trip's tap-in and tap-out timestamp and stations can be directly obtained from AFC system records; the train and route chosen by a passenger are unknown, which are necessary to solve our problem. While existing methods work well in some specific situations, they don't work for complicated situations. In this paper, we propose a solution that needs no additional equipment or human involvement than the AFC systems. We develop a probabilistic model that can estimate from empirical analysis how the passenger flows are dispatched to different routes and trains. We validate our approach using a large scale data set collected from the Shenzhen metro system. The measured results provide us with useful inputs when building the passenger path choice model., Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures

In vehicular traffic planning it is a long standing problem how to assign demand such on the available model of a road network that an equilibrium with regard to travel time or generalized costs is realized. For pedestrian traffic this question can be asked as well. However, as the infrastructure of pedestrian dynamics is not a network (a graph), but two-dimensional, there is in principle an infinitely large set of routes. As a consequence none of the iterating assignment methods developed for road traffic can be applied for pedestrians. In this contribution a method to overcome this problem is briefly summarized and applied with an example geometry which as a result is enhanced with routes with intermediate destination areas of certain shape. The enhanced geometry is used in some exemplary assignment calculations., Comment: contribution to proceedings of Traffic and Granular Flow 2013 (TGF13)

This paper studied the behavior-cognitive model of drivers during their travel based on the current research on driver behavior. Firstly, a route choice behavior-cognitive model was proposed for describing the decision-making mechanism of drivers during his travel; then, simulation experiments were carried out on the cosimulation VBc-vissim platform. From the experimental results, dynamic behavior features of drivers during their travel can be properly explained by the behavior-cognitive model, thus optimal path can be obtained from this model., Comment: 6 pages,8 figures,a table

This paper presents an event-driven way finding algorithm for pedestrians in an evacuation scenario, which operates on a graph-based structure. The motivation of each pedestrian is to leave the facility. The events used to redirect pedestrians include the identification of a jam situation and/or identification of a better route than the current. This study considers two types of pedestrians: familiar and unfamiliar with the facility. Four strategies are modelled to cover those groups. The modelled strategies are the shortest path (local and global); They are combined with a quickest path approach, which is based on an observation principle. In the quickest path approach, pedestrians take their decisions based on the observed environment and are routed dynamically in the network using an appropriate cost benefit analysis function. The dynamic modelling of route choice with different strategies and types of pedestrians considers the manifold of in uences which appears in the real system and raises questions about the criticality of an evacuation process. To address this question criteria are elaborated. The criteria we focus on in this contribution are the evacuation time, the individual times spent in jam, the jam size evolution and the overall jam size itself. The in uences of the different strategies on those evaluation criteria are investigated. The sensibility of the system to disturbances (e.g. broken escape route) is also analysed. Keywords: pedestrian dynamics, routing, quickest path, evacuation, jam, critical state, Comment: 15 pages, 34 figures

Pedestrian route choice is a complex, situation- and population-dependent issue. In this contribution an example is presented, where pedestrians can choose among two seemingly similar alternatives. The choice ratio is not even close to being balanced, but almost all pedestrians choose the same alternative. A number of possible causes for this are given., Comment: Extended version of a contribution to "Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2010" conference (accepted for publication) in Gaithersburg, MD

A combination of a telepresence system and a microscopic traffic simulator is introduced. It is evaluated using a hotel evacuation scenario. Four different kinds of supporting information are compared, standard exit signs, floor plans with indicated exit routes, guiding lines on the floor and simulated agents leading the way. The results indicate that guiding lines are the most efficient way to support an evacuation but the natural behavior of following others comes very close. On another level the results are consistent with previously performed real and virtual experiments and validate the use of a telepresence system in evacuation studies. It is shown that using a microscopic traffic simulator extends the possibilities for evaluation, e.g. by adding simulated humans to the environment., Comment: Preprint of TGF11 (Traffic and Granular Flow, Moscow, September 2011) conference proceedings contribution

Using a unique feature of air cargo transshipment data in the Northeast Asian region, this paper identifies the critical factors that determine the transshipment route choice. Taking advantage of the variations in the transport characteristics in each origin-destination airports pair, the paper uses a discrete choice model to describe the transshipping route choice decision made by an agent (i.e., freight forwarder, consolidator, and large shipper). The analysis incorporates two major factors, monetary cost (such as line-haul cost and landing fee) and time cost (i.e., aircraft turnaround time, including loading and unloading time, custom clearance time, and expected scheduled delay), along with other controls. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and corrects for resulting endogeneity by use of appropriate instrumental variables. Estimation results find that transshipment volumes are more sensitive to time cost, and that the reduction in aircraft turnaround time by 1 hour would be worth the increase in airport charges by more than $1000. Simulation exercises measures the impacts of alternative policy scenarios for a Korean airport, which has recently declared their intention to be a future regional hub in the Northeast Asian region. The results suggest that reducing aircraft turnaround time at the airport be an effective strategy, rather than subsidizing to reduce airport charges.

The modeling of disaggregated vehicular mobility and its associations with the ambient urban built environment is essential for developing operative transport intervention and urban optimization plans. However, established vehicular route choice models failed to fully consider the bounded behavioral rationality and the complex characteristics of the urban built environment affecting drivers' route choice preference. Therefore, the spatio-temporal characteristics of vehicular mobility patterns were not fully explained, which limited the granular implementation of relevant transport interventions. To address this limitation, we proposed a vehicular route choice model that mimics the anchoring effect and the exposure preference while driving. The proposed model enables us to quantitatively examine the impact of the built environment on vehicular routing behavior, which has been largely neglected in previous studies. Results show that the proposed model performs 12% better than the conventional vehicular route choice model based on the shortest path principle. Our empirical analysis of taxi drivers' routing behavior patterns in Beijing, China uncovers that drivers are inclined to choose routes with shorter time duration and with less loss at traversal intersections. Counterintuitively, we also found that drivers heavily rely on circuitous ring roads and expressways to deliver passengers, which are unexpectedly longer than the shortest paths. Moreover, characteristics of the urban built environment including road eccentricity, centrality, average road length, land use diversity, sky visibility, and building coverage can affect drivers' route choice behaviors, accounting for about 5% of the increase in the proposed model's performance. We also refine the above explorations according to the modeling results of trips that differ in departure time, travel distance, and occupation status., Comment: 45 pages, 11 figures, 6 tables

Understanding pedestrian route choice behavior in complex buildings is important to ensure pedestrian safety. Previous studies have mostly used traditional data collection methods and discrete choice modeling to understand the influence of different factors on pedestrian route and exit choice, particularly in simple indoor environments. However, research on pedestrian route choice in complex buildings is still limited. This paper presents a data-driven approach for understanding and predicting the pedestrian decision point choice during normal and emergency wayfinding in a multi-story building. For this, we first built an indoor network representation and proposed a data mapping technique to map VR coordinates to the indoor representation. We then used a well-established machine learning algorithm, namely the random forest (RF) model to predict pedestrian decision point choice along a route during four wayfinding tasks in a multi-story building. Pedestrian behavioral data in a multi-story building was collected by a Virtual Reality experiment. The results show a much higher prediction accuracy of decision points using the RF model (i.e., 93% on average) compared to the logistic regression model. The highest prediction accuracy was 96% for task 3. Additionally, we tested the model performance combining personal characteristics and we found that personal characteristics did not affect decision point choice. This paper demonstrates the potential of applying a machine learning algorithm to study pedestrian route choice behavior in complex indoor buildings.

In many choice modeling applications, people demand is frequently characterized as multiple discrete, which means that people choose multiple items simultaneously. The analysis and prediction of people behavior in multiple discrete choice situations pose several challenges. In this paper, to address this, we propose a random utility maximization (RUM) based model that considers each subset of choice alternatives as a composite alternative, where individuals choose a subset according to the RUM framework. While this approach offers a natural and intuitive modeling approach for multiple-choice analysis, the large number of subsets of choices in the formulation makes its estimation and application intractable. To overcome this challenge, we introduce directed acyclic graph (DAG) based representations of choices where each node of the DAG is associated with an elemental alternative and additional information such that the number of selected elemental alternatives. Our innovation is to show that the multi-choice model is equivalent to a recursive route choice model on the DAG, leading to the development of new efficient estimation algorithms based on dynamic programming. In addition, the DAG representations enable us to bring some advanced route choice models to capture the correlation between subset choice alternatives. Numerical experiments based on synthetic and real datasets show many advantages of our modeling approach and the proposed estimation algorithms.

To explain day-to-day (DTD) route-choice behaviors and traffic dynamics observed in a series of lab experiments, Part I of this research proposed a discrete choice-based analytical dynamic model (Qi et al., 2023). Although the deterministic model could well reproduce the experimental observations, it converges to a stable equilibrium of route flow while the observed DTD evolution is apparently with random oscillations. To overcome the limitation, the paper proposes a route-dependent attraction-based stochastic process (RDAB-SP) model based on the same behavioral assumptions in Part I of this research. Through careful comparison between the model-based estimation and experimental observations, it is demonstrated that the proposed RDAB-SP model can accurately reproduce the random oscillations both in terms of flow switching and route flow evolution. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to explain and model experimental observations by using stochastic process DTD models, and it is interesting to find that the seemingly unanticipated phenomena (i.e., random route switching behavior) is actually dominated by simple rules, i.e., independent and probability-based route-choice behavior. Finally, an approximated model is developed to help simulate the stochastic process and evaluate the equilibrium distribution in a simple and efficient manner, making the proposed model a useful and practical tool in transportation policy design.

In the area of urban transportation networks, a growing number of day-to-day (DTD) traffic dynamic theories have been proposed to describe the network flow evolution, and an increasing amount of laboratory experiments have been conducted to observe travelers' behavior regularities. However, the "communication" between theorists and experimentalists has not been made well. This paper devotes to 1) detecting unanticipated behavior regularities by conducting a series of laboratory experiments, and 2) improving existing DTD dynamics theories by embedding the observed behavior regularities into a route choice model. First, 312 subjects participated in one of the eight decision-making scenarios and make route choices repeatedly in congestible parallel-route networks. Second, three route-switching behavior patterns that cannot be fully explained by the classic route-choice models are observed. Third, to enrich the explanation power of a discrete route-choice model, behavioral assumptions of route-dependent attractions, i.e., route-dependent inertia and preference, are introduced. An analytical DTD dynamic model is accordingly proposed and proven to steadily converge to a unique equilibrium state. Finally, the proposed DTD model could satisfactorily reproduce the observations in various datasets. The research results can help transportation science theorists to make the best use of laboratory experimentation and to build network equilibrium or DTD dynamic models with both real behavioral basis and neat mathematical properties.

One of the potential capabilities of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) is that they can have different route choice behavior and driving behavior compared to human Driven Vehicles (HDVs). This will lead to mixed traffic flow with multiple classes of route choice behavior. Therefore, it is crucial to solve the multiclass Traffic Assignment Problem (TAP) in mixed traffic of CAVs and HDVs. Few studies have tried to solve this problem; however, most used analytical solutions, which are challenging to implement in real and large networks (especially in dynamic cases). Also, studies in implementing simulation-based methods have not considered all of CAVs' potential capabilities. On the other hand, several different (conflicting) assumptions are made about the CAV's route choice behavior in these studies. So, providing a tool that can solve the multiclass TAP of mixed traffic under different assumptions can help researchers to understand the impacts of CAVs better. To fill these gaps, this study provides an open-source solution framework of the multiclass simulation-based traffic assignment problem for mixed traffic of CAVs and HDVs. This model assumes that CAVs follow system optimal principles with rerouting capability, while HDVs follow user equilibrium principles. Moreover, this model can capture the impacts of CAVs on road capacity by considering distinct driving behavioral models in both micro and meso scales traffic simulation. This proposed model is tested in two case studies which shows that as the penetration rate of CAVs increases, the total travel time of all vehicles decreases.

We study route choice in a repeated routing game where an uncertain state of nature determines link latency functions, and agents receive private route recommendation. The state is sampled in an i.i.d. manner in every round from a publicly known distribution, and the recommendations are generated by a randomization policy whose mapping from the state is known publicly. In a one-shot setting, the agents are said to obey recommendation if it gives the smallest travel time in a posteriori expectation. A plausible extension to repeated setting is that the likelihood of following recommendation in a round is related to regret from previous rounds. If the regret is of satisficing type with respect to a default choice and is averaged over past rounds and over all agents, then the asymptotic outcome under an obedient recommendation policy coincides with the one-shot outcome. We report findings from an experiment with one participant at a time engaged in repeated route choice decision on computer. In every round, the participant is shown travel time distribution for each route, a route recommendation generated by an obedient policy, and a rating suggestive of average experience of previous participants with the quality of recommendation. Upon entering route choice, the actual travel times are revealed. The participant evaluates the quality of recommendation by submitting a review. This is combined with historical reviews to update rating for the next round. Data analysis from 33 participants each with 100 rounds suggests moderate negative correlation between the display rating and the average regret, and a strong positive correlation between the rating and the likelihood of following recommendation. Overall, under obedient recommendation policy, the rating converges close to its maximum value by the end of the experiments in conjunction with very high frequency of following recommendations.

Although the recursive logit (RL) model has been recently popular and has led to many applications and extensions, an important numerical issue with respect to the computation of value functions remains unsolved. This issue is particularly significant for model estimation, during which the parameters are updated every iteration and may violate the feasibility condition of the value function. To solve this numerical issue of the value function in the model estimation, this study performs an extensive analysis of a prism-constrained RL (Prism-RL) model proposed by Oyama and Hato (2019), which has a path set constrained by the prism defined based upon a state-extended network representation. The numerical experiments have shown two important properties of the Prism-RL model for parameter estimation. First, the prism-based approach enables estimation regardless of the initial and true parameter values, even in cases where the original RL model cannot be estimated due to the numerical problem. We also successfully captured a positive effect of the presence of street green on pedestrian route choice in a real application. Second, the Prism-RL model achieved better fit and prediction performance than the RL model, by implicitly restricting paths with large detour or many loops. Defining the prism-based path set in a data-oriented manner, we demonstrated the possibility of the Prism-RL model describing more realistic route choice behavior. The capture of positive network attributes while retaining the diversity of path alternatives is important in many applications such as pedestrian route choice and sequential destination choice behavior, and thus the prism-based approach significantly extends the practical applicability of the RL model., Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures

This paper aims to answer the research question as to optimal design of decision-making processes for autonomous vehicles (AVs), including dynamical selection of driving velocity and route choices on a transportation network. Dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) has been widely used to model travelers's route choice or/and departure-time choice and predict dynamic traffic flow evolution in the short term. However, the existing DTA models do not explicitly describe one's selection of driving velocity on a road link. Driving velocity choice may not be crucial for modeling the movement of human drivers but it is a must-have control to maneuver AVs. In this paper, we aim to develop a game-theoretic model to solve for AVs's optimal driving strategies of velocity control in the interior of a road link and route choice at a junction node. To this end, we will first reinterpret the DTA problem as an N-car differential game and show that this game can be tackled with a general mean field game-theoretic framework. The developed mean field game is challenging to solve because of the forward and backward structure for velocity control and the complementarity conditions for route choice. An efficient algorithm is developed to address these challenges. The model and the algorithm are illustrated on the Braess network and the OW network with a single destination. On the Braess network, we first compare the LWR based DTA model with the proposed game and find that the driving and routing control navigates AVs with overall lower costs. We then compare the total travel cost without and with the middle link and find that the Braess paradox may still arise under certain conditions. We also test our proposed model and solution algorithm on the OW network., Comment: 32 pages, 13 figures