Search

In the age of multi-messenger astrophysics, low-latency parameter estimation of gravitational-wave signals is essential for electromagnetic follow-up observations. In this paper, we present a new edition of the Bayesian parameter estimation scheme for compact binaries known as Rapid PE. Rapid PE parallelizes parameter estimation by fixing the intrinsic parameters (such as the masses and spins of the binary) to a grid around a search-identified intrinsic point and by integrating over the extrinsic parameters via Monte Carlo sampling. The original version of Rapid PE calculated an effective Fisher matrix to fix the intrinsic parameters to an ellipsoidal grid. Here we use rectilinear gridding in intrinsic space. The use of rectilinear intrinsic grids provides the option to more easily include spin and allows for adaptive grid refinements to mitigate search biases and map out the posterior more completely without sacrificing sampling efficiency. We demonstrate that this parameter estimation method produces reliable results for simulated gravitational-wave signals from binary neutron star mergers.

The second LIGO-Virgo catalog of gravitational wave transients has more than quadrupled the observational sample of binary black holes. We analyze this catalog using a suite of five state-of-the-art binary black hole population models covering a range of isolated and dynamical formation channels and infer branching fractions between channels as well as constraints on uncertain physical processes that impact the observational properties of mergers. Given our set of formation models, we find significant differences between the branching fractions of the underlying and detectable populations, and that the diversity of detections suggests that multiple formation channels are at play. A mixture of channels is strongly preferred over any single channel dominating the detected population: an individual channel does not contribute to more than $\simeq 70\%$ of the observational sample of binary black holes. We calculate the preference between the natal spin assumptions and common envelope efficiencies in our models, favoring natal spins of isolated black holes of $\lesssim 0.1$, and marginally preferring common envelope efficiencies of $\gtrsim 2.0$ while strongly disfavoring highly inefficient common envelopes. We show that it is essential to consider multiple channels when interpreting gravitational wave catalogs, as inference on branching fractions and physical prescriptions becomes biased when contributing formation scenarios are not considered or incorrect physical prescriptions are assumed. Although our quantitative results can be affected by uncertain assumptions in model predictions, our methodology is capable of including models with updated theoretical considerations and additional formation channels., Comment: 27 pages (14 pages main text + 13 pages appendices/references), 8 figures, 1 table, published in ApJ

Using a Milky Way double neutron star (DNS) merger rate of 210 Myr$^{-1}$, as derived by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), we demonstrate that the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect on average 240 (330) DNSs within the Milky Way for a 4-year (8-year) mission with a signal-to-noise ratio greater than 7. Even adopting a more pessimistic rate of 42 Myr$^{-1}$, as derived by the population of Galactic DNSs, we find a significant detection of 46 (65) Milky Way DNSs. These DNSs can be leveraged to constrain formation scenarios. In particular, traditional NS-discovery methods using radio telescopes are unable to detect DNSs with $P_{\rm orb}$ $\lesssim$1 hour (merger times $\lesssim$10 Myr). If a fast-merging channel exists that forms DNSs at these short orbital periods, LISA affords, perhaps, the only opportunity to observationally characterize these systems; we show that toy models for possible formation scenarios leave unique imprints on DNS orbital eccentricities, which may be measured by LISA for values as small as $\sim$10$^{-2}$., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, submitted to ApJL

GW170817 began gravitational-wave multimessenger astronomy. However, GW170817 will not be representative of detections in the coming years -- typical gravitational-wave sources will be closer the detection horizon, have larger localization regions, and (when present) will have correspondingly weaker electromagnetic emission. In its design state, the gravitational-wave detector network in the mid-2020s will consist of up to five similar-sensitivity second-generation interferometers. The instantaneous sky-coverage by the full network is nearly isotropic, in contrast to the configuration during the first \change{three} observing runs. Along with the coverage of the sky, there are also commensurate increases in the average horizon for a given binary mass. We present a realistic set of localizations for binary neutron stars and neutron star--black hole binaries, incorporating intra-network duty cycles and selection effects on the astrophysical distributions. Based on the assumption of an $80\%$ duty cycle, and that two instruments observe a signal above the detection threshold, we anticipate a median of $28$ sq.\ deg.\ for binary neutron stars, and $50$--$120$ sq.\ deg.\ for neutron star--black hole (depending on the population assumed). These distributions have a wide spread, and the best localizations, even for networks with fewer instruments, will have localizations of $1$--$10$ sq.\ deg.\ range. The full five instrument network reduces localization regions to a few tens of degrees at worst., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables, accepted in ApJ

The blossoming field of joint gravitational wave and electromagnetic (GW-EM) astronomy is one of the most promising in astronomy. The first, and only, joint GW-EM event GW170817 provided remarkable science returns that still continue to this day. Continued growth in this field requires increasing the sample size of joint GW-EM detections. In this white paper, we outline the case for using some percentage of LSST survey time for dedicated target-of-opportunity follow up of GW triggers in order to efficiently and rapidly identify optical counterparts. We show that the timeline for the LSST science survey is well matched to the planned improvements to ground based GW detectors in the next decade. LSST will become particularly crucial in the later half of the 2020s as more and more distant GW sources are detected. Lastly, we highlight some of the key science goals that can be addressed by a large sample of joint GW-EM detections., Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures. Submitted to the Astro 2020 call for white papers

The field of time-domain astrophysics has entered the era of Multi-messenger Astronomy (MMA). One key science goal for the next decade (and beyond) will be to characterize gravitational wave (GW) and neutrino sources using the next generation of Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs). These studies will have a broad impact across astrophysics, informing our knowledge of the production and enrichment history of the heaviest chemical elements, constrain the dense matter equation of state, provide independent constraints on cosmology, increase our understanding of particle acceleration in shocks and jets, and study the lives of black holes in the universe. Future GW detectors will greatly improve their sensitivity during the coming decade, as will near-infrared telescopes capable of independently finding kilonovae from neutron star mergers. However, the electromagnetic counterparts to high-frequency (LIGO/Virgo band) GW sources will be distant and faint and thus demand ELT capabilities for characterization. ELTs will be important and necessary contributors to an advanced and complete multi-messenger network., Comment: White paper submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey

In the coming years gravitational-wave detectors will undergo a series of improvements, with an increase in their detection rate by about an order of magnitude. Routine detections of gravitational-wave signals promote novel astrophysical and fundamental theory studies, while simultaneously leading to an increase in the number of detections temporally overlapping with instrumentally- or environmentally-induced transients in the detectors (glitches), often of unknown origin. Indeed, this was the case for the very first detection by the LIGO and Virgo detectors of a gravitational-wave signal consistent with a binary neutron star coalescence, GW170817. A loud glitch in the LIGO-Livingston detector, about one second before the merger, hampered coincident detection (which was initially achieved solely with LIGO-Hanford data). Moreover, accurate source characterization depends on specific assumptions about the behavior of the detector noise that are rendered invalid by the presence of glitches. In this paper, we present the various techniques employed for the initial mitigation of the glitch to perform source characterization of GW170817 and study advantages and disadvantages of each mitigation method. We show that, despite the presence of instrumental noise transients louder than the one affecting GW170817, we are still able to produce unbiased measurements of the intrinsic parameters from simulated injections with properties similar to GW170817., Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, accepted in PRD

GW170817/GRB170817A, a short gamma-ray burst arising from a low-mass compact object merger was the first multi-messenger discovery of a compact binary system outside the local galactic neighborhood. From gravitational-wave measurements, we know GW170817 has a wide range of plausible component masses, depending also on less well-constrained properties such as the spin and tidal deformability of the component stars. The kilonova light curve --- and hence the total ejecta mass from a given source --- depends on the relative contribution of dynamical ejecta and other sources such as disk winds. Electromagnetic observations and model fitting of the ejecta properties from the subsequent kilonova detection provided values of the ejecta mass from the merger. These values, when combined with the gravitational-wave measurement disfavors an equal-mass configuration, with the level of disagreement dependent on the assumed amount of ejecta mass of dynamical origin. Within the confines of our own galaxy, several binary neutron star systems along with measurements of their component masses have been made. If those distributions are indicative of a universal distribution, the joint measurement of the component masses of GW170817 represents an outlier. This tension is not easily resolvable from physical arguments, as the proposed pathways which form binary neutron stars do not often produce very asymmetrical pairs. Even accounting for the uncertainty associated with the total mass of the dynamical ejecta, this tension suggests that the distribution of binary neutron star masses in the galaxy is not indicative of those in other galaxies., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, accepted in ApJ

A milestone of multi-messenger astronomy has been achieved with the detection of gravitational waves from a binary neutron star merger accompanied by observations of several associated electromagnetic counterparts. Joint observations can reveal details of the engines that drive the electromagnetic and gravitational-wave emission. However, locating and identify an electromagnetic counterparts to a gravitational-wave event is heavily reliant on localization of the source through gravitational-wave information. We explore the sky localization of a simulated set of neutron star mergers as the worldwide network of gravitational-wave detectors evolves through the next decade, performing the first such study for neutron star -- black hole binary sources. Currently, three detectors are observing with additional detectors in Japan and India expected to become operational in the coming years. With three detectors, we recover a median neutron star -- black hole binary sky localization of 60 deg$^2$ at the 90\% credible level. As all five detectors become operational, sources can be localized to a median of 11 deg$^2$ on the sky., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, accepted in ApJL

Gravitational waves (GWs) from binary black hole (BBH) mergers provide a new probe of massive-star evolution and the formation channels of binary compact objects. By coupling the growing sample of BBH systems with population synthesis models, we can begin to constrain the parameters of such models and glean unprecedented knowledge about the inherent physical processes that underpin binary stellar evolution. In this study, we apply a hierarchical Bayesian model to mass measurements from a synthetic GW sample to constrain the physical prescriptions in population models and the relative fraction of systems generated from various channels. We employ population models of two canonical formation scenarios in our analysis --- isolated binary evolution involving a common-envelope phase and dynamical formation within globular clusters --- with model variations for different black hole natal kick prescriptions. We show that solely with chirp mass measurements, it is possible to constrain natal kick prescriptions and the relative fraction of systems originating from each formation channel with $\mathcal{O}(100)$ of confident detections. This framework can be extended to include additional formation scenarios, model parameters, and measured properties of the compact binary., Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures

The detection of electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational waves has great promise for the investigation of many scientific questions. It has long been hoped that in addition to providing extra, non-gravitational information about the sources of these signals, the detection of an electromagnetic signal in conjunction with a gravitational wave could aid in the analysis of the gravitational signal itself. That is, knowledge of the sky location, inclination, and redshift of a binary could break degeneracies between these extrinsic, coordinate-dependent parameters and the physical parameters, such as mass and spin, that are intrinsic to the binary. In this paper, we investigate this issue by assuming a perfect knowledge of extrinsic parameters, and assessing the maximal impact of this knowledge on our ability to extract intrinsic parameters. However, we find only modest improvements in a few parameters --- namely the primary component's spin --- and conclude that, even in the best case, the use of additional information from electromagnetic observations does not improve the measurement of the intrinsic parameters significantly., Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, to appear in ApJ

The recent detections of the binary black hole mergers GW150914 and GW151226 have inaugurated the field of gravitational-wave astronomy. For the two main formation channels that have been proposed for these sources, isolated binary evolution in galactic fields and dynamical formation in dense star clusters, the predicted masses and merger rates overlap significantly, complicating any astrophysical claims that rely on measured masses alone. Here, we examine the distribution of spin- orbit misalignments expected for binaries from the field and from dense star clusters. Under standard assumptions for black-hole natal kicks, we find that black-hole binaries similar to GW150914 could be formed with significant spin-orbit misalignment only through dynamical processes. In particular, these heavy-black-hole binaries can only form with a significant spin-orbit anti-alignment in the dynamical channel. Our results suggest that future detections of merging black hole binaries with measurable spins will allow us to identify the main formation channel for these systems., Comment: 6 pages, 1 appendix. ApJL in press

We describe a stream-based analysis pipeline to detect gravitational waves from the merger of binary neutron stars, binary black holes, and neutron-star-black-hole binaries within ~ 1 minute of the arrival of the merger signal at Earth. Such low-latency detection is crucial for the prompt response by electromagnetic facilities in order to observe any fading electromagnetic counterparts that might be produced by mergers involving at least one neutron star. Even for systems expected not to produce counterparts, low-latency analysis of the data is useful for deciding when not to point telescopes, and as feedback to observatory operations. Analysts using this pipeline were the first to identify GW151226, the second gravitational-wave event ever detected. The pipeline also operates in an offline mode, in which it incorporates more refined information about data quality and employs acausal methods that are inapplicable to the online mode. The pipeline's offline mode was used in the detection of the first two gravitational-wave events, GW150914 and GW151226, as well as the identification of a third candidate, LVT151012.

Inspiraling binary neutron stars are expected to be one of the most significant sources of gravitational-wave signals for the new generation of advanced ground-based detectors. We investigate how well we could hope to measure properties of these binaries using the Advanced LIGO detectors, which began operation in September 2015. We study an astrophysically motivated population of sources (binary components with masses $1.2~\mathrm{M}_\odot$--$1.6~\mathrm{M}_\odot$ and spins of less than $0.05$) using the full LIGO analysis pipeline. While this simulated population covers the observed range of potential binary neutron-star sources, we do not exclude the possibility of sources with parameters outside these ranges; given the existing uncertainty in distributions of mass and spin, it is critical that analyses account for the full range of possible mass and spin configurations. We find that conservative prior assumptions on neutron-star mass and spin lead to average fractional uncertainties in component masses of $\sim 16\%$, with little constraint on spins (the median $90\%$ upper limit on the spin of the more massive component is $\sim 0.7$). Stronger prior constraints on neutron-star spins can further constrain mass estimates, but only marginally. However, we find that the sky position and luminosity distance for these sources are not influenced by the inclusion of spin; therefore, if LIGO detects a low-spin population of BNS sources, less computationally expensive results calculated neglecting spin will be sufficient for guiding electromagnetic follow-up., Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures

Advanced ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors begin operation imminently. Their intended goal is not only to make the first direct detection of GWs, but also to make inferences about the source systems. Binary neutron-star mergers are among the most promising sources. We investigate the performance of the parameter-estimation \edit{(PE)} pipeline that will be used during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (aLIGO) in 2015: we concentrate on the ability to reconstruct the source location on the sky, but also consider the ability to measure masses and the distance. Accurate, rapid sky-localization is necessary to alert electromagnetic (EM) observatories so that they can perform follow-up searches for counterpart transient events. We consider PE accuracy in the presence of \edit{non-stationary}, non-Gaussian noise. We find that the character of the noise makes negligible difference to the PE performance \edit{at a given signal-to-noise ratio}. The source luminosity distance can only be poorly constrained, the median $90\%$ ($50\%$) credible interval scaled with respect to the true distance is $0.85$ ($0.38$). However, the chirp mass is well measured. Our chirp-mass estimates are subject to systematic error because we used gravitational-waveform templates without component spin to carry out inference on signals with moderate spins, but the total error is typically less than $10^{-3} M_\odot$. The median $90\%$ ($50\%$) credible region for sky localization is $\sim600~\mathrm{deg^{2}}$ ($\sim150~\mathrm{deg^{2}}$), with $3\%$ ($30\%$) of detected events localized within $100~\mathrm{deg^{2}}$. Early aLIGO, with only two detectors, will have a sky-localization accuracy for binary neutron stars of hundreds of square degrees; this makes EM follow-up challenging, but not impossible., Comment: 21 pages, 24 figures. Matches published version. Data release at http://www.ligo.org/scientists/first2years/

Searches for gravitational-wave transients from binary black hole coalescences typically rely on one of two approaches: matched filtering with templates and morphology-independent excess power searches. Multiple algorithmic implementations in the analysis of data from the first generation of ground-based gravitational wave interferometers have used different strategies for the suppression of non-Gaussian noise transients, and targeted different regions of the binary black hole parameter space. In this paper we compare the sensitivity of three such algorithms: matched filtering with full coalescence templates, matched filtering with ringdown templates and a morphology-independent excess power search. The comparison is performed at a fixed false alarm rate and relies on Monte-carlo simulations of binary black hole coalescences for spinning, non-precessing systems with total mass 25-350 solar mass, which covers the parameter space of stellar mass and intermediate mass black hole binaries. We find that in the mass range of 25 -100 solar mass the sensitive distance of the search, marginalized over source parameters, is best with matched filtering to full waveform templates, to within 10 percent at a false alarm rate of 3 events per year. In the mass range of 100-350 solar mass, the same comparison favors the morphology-independent excess power search to within 20 percent. The dependence on mass and spin is also explored., Comment: 11 pages, 2 tables, 25 figures

We anticipate the first direct detections of gravitational waves (GWs) with Advanced LIGO and Virgo later this decade. Though this groundbreaking technical achievement will be its own reward, a still greater prize could be observations of compact binary mergers in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels simultaneously. During Advanced LIGO and Virgo's first two years of operation, 2015 through 2016, we expect the global GW detector array to improve in sensitivity and livetime and expand from two to three detectors. We model the detection rate and the sky localization accuracy for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers across this transition. We have analyzed a large, astrophysically motivated source population using real-time detection and sky localization codes and higher-latency parameter estimation codes that have been expressly built for operation in the Advanced LIGO/Virgo era. We show that for most BNS events the rapid sky localization, available about a minute after a detection, is as accurate as the full parameter estimation. We demonstrate that Advanced Virgo will play an important role in sky localization, even though it is anticipated to come online with only one-third as much sensitivity as the Advanced LIGO detectors. We find that the median 90% confidence region shrinks from ~500 square degrees in 2015 to ~200 square degrees in 2016. A few distinct scenarios for the first LIGO/Virgo detections emerge from our simulations., Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables. For accompanying data, see http://www.ligo.org/scientists/first2years

We describe a general approach to detection of transient gravitational-wave signals in the presence of non-Gaussian background noise. We prove that under quite general conditions, the ratio of the likelihood of observed data to contain a signal to the likelihood of it being a noise fluctuation provides optimal ranking for the candidate events found in an experiment. The likelihood-ratio ranking allows us to combine different kinds of data into a single analysis. We apply the general framework to the problem of unifying the results of independent experiments and the problem of accounting for non-Gaussian artifacts in the searches for gravitational waves from compact binary coalescence in LIGO data. We show analytically and confirm through simulations that in both cases the likelihood ratio statistic results in an improved analysis., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures

There is a broad class of astrophysical sources that produce detectable, transient, gravitational waves. Some searches for transient gravitational waves are tailored to known features of these sources. Other searches make few assumptions about the sources. Typically events are observable with multiple search techniques. This work describes how to combine the results of searches that are not independent, treating each search as a classifier for a given event. This will be shown to improve the overall sensitivity to gravitational-wave events while directly addressing the problem of consistent interpretation of multiple trials., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures