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We document a sizable effect of oil price fluctuations on US banking variables by estimating an SVAR with sign restrictions as in Baumeister and Hamilton (2019). We find that oil market shocks that lead to a contraction in world economic activity unambiguously lower the amount of bank credit to the US economy, tend to decrease US banks' net worth, and tend to increase the US credit spread. The effects can be strong and long-lasting, or more modest and short-lived, depending on the source of the oil price fluctuations. The effects are stronger for smaller and lower leveraged banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to understand the general equilibrium effects of time-varying geopolitical risk in oil markets. Answering this question requires simultaneously modeling several features including macroeconomic disasters and geopolitically driven oil production disasters, oil storage and precautionary savings, and the endogenous determination of uncertainty about output and the price of oil. We find that oil price uncertainty tends to be driven by macroeconomic uncertainty. Shifts in the probability of a geopolitically driven major oil supply disruption have meaningful effects on the price of oil and the macro economy, but the resulting oil price uncertainty is not a major driver of fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals crude in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted much of its crude oil exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power. We also provide a similar analysis for the ESPO price discount on exports to China. In contrast, the price cap deprived Russia of the financial resources it spent on assembling a “shadow” fleet of tankers, but its effect on the Russian oil export price was negligible once the adoption of the price cap had facilitated the use of Western services to transport Russian oil to Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC's public signal and test whether market participants find it credible. Using Structural Topic Models, we analyze OPEC narratives and identify several topics related to fundamental factors, such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market. Importantly, we find that OPEC communication reduces oil price volatility and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions. Our analysis indicates that market participants assess OPEC communications as providing an important signal to the crude oil market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops Mean Group Distributed Lag (MGDL) estimation of impulse responses in large panels with one or two cross-section dimensions. Sufficient conditions for asymptotic consistency and asymptotic normality are derived, and satisfactory small sample performance is documented using Monte Carlo experiments. MGDL estimators are used to estimate the effects of crude oil price increases on US city- and product-level retail prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite growing interest in the impact of oil and other energy price shocks on inflation and inflation expectations, until recently this question has not received much attention. This survey not only presents empirical results for the U.S. economy, but expands the analysis to include other major economies. We find that only in the Euro area and in the U.K. energy price shocks are associated with a material increase in core consumer prices. This helps explain the somewhat more persistent response of headline inflation in these countries than in the U.S. or Canada. Inflation is even less sensitive to energy price shocks in Japan. We document that energy price shocks played a more important role in explaining headline inflation in the Euro area in 2021 and 2022 than in the U.S. This does not mean that energy price shocks have de-anchored inflation expectations, however. While suitable data on long-run inflation expectations are scant, neither for the U.S. nor the U.K. is there evidence that energy price shocks have materially changed long-run inflation expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is common in applied work to estimate responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news shocks derived from surprise changes in daily futures prices around the date of policy announcements. This requires mapping the daily surprises into a monthly shock that may be used as an external instrument in a monthly VAR model or local projection. The standard approach has been to sum these daily surprises over the course of a given month when constructing the monthly proxy variable, ignoring the accounting relationship between daily and average monthly price data. In this paper, I provide a new approach to constructing monthly proxies from daily surprises that takes account of this link and revisit the question of how to use OPEC announcements to identify news shocks in VAR models of the global oil market. The proposed approach calls into question the interpretation of the identified shock as oil supply news and implies quantitatively and qualitatively different estimates of the macroeconomic impact of OPEC announcements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document the existence of a quantitative relevant banks' balance-sheet transmission channel of oil price shocks by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking and oil sectors. The associated amplification mechanism implies that those shocks explain a non-negligible share of US GDP growth fluctuations, up to 17 percent, instead of 6 percent absent the banking sector. Also, they mitigated the severity of the Great Recession's trough. GDP growth would have been 2.48 percentage points more negative in 2008Q4 without the beneficial effect of low oil prices. The estimate without the banking sector is only 1.30 percentage points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to The Guardian newspaper, cases of olive oil fraud and mislabelling in the European Union (EU) have reached a record high. The cost of olive oil has tripled in recent years due to droughts and supply chain inflation, leading to the emergence of a "parallel market." Spain, the largest producer of olive oil, has removed VAT on the product to support the struggling industry. The reported cases of fraud and non-compliance are likely underestimated, and the EU produces around 67% of the world's olive oil. [Extracted from the article]

Mentha oil futures edged up on MCX as speculators enlarged their positions on firm demand at domestic spot markets, in spite of rising supplies from major producing areas. Moreover, anticipations of more fiscal stimulus measures from China has also supported menthe oil prices' up-move.The contract for October delivery was trading at 924.50, up by 0.60% or Rs 5.50 from its previous closing of Rs 919.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 115 lots.The contract for November delivery was trading at 933.90, up by 0.21% or Rs 2.00 from its previous closing of Rs 931.90. The open interest of the contract stood at 525 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on MCX experienced a decline due to concerns about demand and reduced fears of a potential conflict in the Middle East following Israel's recent attack on Iran. Additionally, the strength of the dollar and anticipation of the US presidential election outcome on November 5 contributed to the decrease in crude oil prices. The November delivery contract was down by 4.04% at Rs 5796.00, while the December delivery contract decreased by 3.93% at Rs 5786.00 on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on MCX rose due to increased demand following stimulus measures from China, a weak American currency, tensions in West Asia, and political uncertainty before the US Presidential election. The November delivery contract was up by 0.46% at Rs 5938.00, while the December delivery contract increased by 0.44% to Rs 5928.00. Open interest for both contracts also saw gains. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures rose on MCX as participants enlarged their positions on strong demand after US inventories rose much more than estimated, while ongoing tensions in West Asia and political uncertainty ahead of the US Presidential election have also supported crude oil sentiments.The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 6030.00, up by 0.9% or Rs 54.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5976.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 13441 lots.The contract for December delivery was trading at Rs 6016.00, up by 0.85% or Rs 51.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5965.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 916 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on MCX experienced a decline due to concerns about demand and a decrease in fears of supply disruptions. The decrease in prices was partially offset by China's stimulus efforts, including a reduction in benchmark lending rates by the People's Bank of China. The October delivery contract was trading at Rs 5840.00, down by 0.26%, while the November delivery contract was trading at Rs 5825.00, down by 0.24%. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on MCX rose due to increased demand following a decrease in US inventories and positive economic indicators from China. Ongoing tensions in West Asia and concerns about crude oil supplies also contributed to the price increase. The October delivery contract was up by 1.25% and the November delivery contract was up by 1.33% on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on the MCX rose marginally due to strong global demand and a decrease in US inventories. Ongoing tensions in West Asia also contributed to the uptrend in crude oil prices. The October delivery contract was trading at Rs 5930.00, up by 0.12%, while the November delivery contract was trading at Rs 5910.00, up by 0.14%. [Extracted from the article]

In nine months of 2024 (January to September) export of castor oil stood at 549,428 MT [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil futures dropped on MCX as speculators trimmed their positions due to demand fears as China's stimulus plans failed to inspire confidence among investors. Profit booking after gains on potential Mideast supply disruption also kept crude oil prices under pressure.The contract for October delivery was trading at Rs 6214.00, down by 2.36% or Rs 150.00 from its previous closing of Rs 6364.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 12821 lots.The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 6174.00, down by 2.36% or Rs 149.00 from its previous closing of Rs 6323.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 2686 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Better-than-expected manufacturing performance in the first quarter of 2024 was supported by declining input costs as global oil prices moderated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil futures fell on MCX as speculators trimmed their positions due to demand fears, even as concerns about a hurricane landfall in Florida and potential supply disruptions in the Middle East kept crude oil prices elevated globally.The contract for October delivery was trading at Rs 6283.00, down by 1.74% or Rs 111.00 from its previous closing of Rs 6394.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 13070 lots.The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 6236.00, down by 1.67% or Rs 106.00 from its previous closing of Rs 6342.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 2247 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on the MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange) have increased due to strong demand in both domestic and overseas markets, driven by concerns of a potential supply disruption caused by a potential attack on Iran's oil facilities by Israel. Additionally, the weak dollar has also contributed to the rise in crude oil prices. The October delivery contract is currently trading at Rs 6204.00, up 1.39% from its previous closing, while the November delivery contract is trading at Rs 6167.00, up 1.36%. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on MCX have fallen due to concerns about demand. Speculators have reduced their positions following a significant increase in inventory in the United States, and China is not committing to additional economic stimulus measures. Additionally, fears of supply disruptions from the conflict between Israel and Iran have eased after Hezbollah, backed by Iran, expressed support for a ceasefire proposal from Lebanon's government. The October delivery contract is trading at Rs 6228.00, down 0.26% from its previous closing, while the November delivery contract is trading at Rs 6186.00, down 0.35%. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on MCX experienced a drop as speculators took profits, despite concerns about demand and potential disruptions in crude oil supplies from West Asia due to escalating tensions. However, the weaker dollar provided some support to crude oil prices. The October delivery contract was down 2.1% or Rs 136.00, while the November delivery contract was down 2.04% or Rs 131.00. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures dropped on MCX as speculators trimmed their positions due to demand worries, even as fears of a wider Middle East conflict raised concerns about potential disruptions in global crude supplies. But a steady dollar supported crude oil prices to some extent.The contract for October delivery was trading at Rs 6246.00, down by 1.47% or Rs 93.00 from its previous closing of Rs 6339.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 14294 lots.The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 6207.00, down by 1.29% or Rs 81.00 from its previous closing of Rs 6288.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 2076 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Upbeat U.S. jobs data contributed to the rise in oil prices [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Steel, networking and biotechnology stocks also showed notable moves to the downside, while energy stocks moved sharply higher along with the price of crude oil [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The BSE Mid cap index fell 0.94%, while Small cap index was down by 0.91% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil futures were trading almost flat on MCX as stronger supply prospects and sluggish global demand growth offset concerns that escalating Middle East tensions could disrupt exports in the key producing region.The contract for October delivery was trading at Rs 5738.00, down by 0.07% or Rs 4.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5742.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 17738 lots.The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 5734.00, up by 0.03% or Rs 2.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5732.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 2124 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures surged on MCX as participants enlarged their positions on firm domestic demand and supply concerns due to escalating tensions in West Asia. Moreover, muted American currency also supportive for crude oil prices' up-move.The contract for October delivery was trading at Rs 5790.00, up by 1.69% or Rs 96.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5694.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 17232 lots.The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 5775.00, up by 1.69% or Rs 96.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5679.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 2052 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

There is no further dilution in the holding anticipated by the group in the foreseeable future [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Possibility of increased exports from Libya also hurt oil prices [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil futures on the MCX traded higher due to strong demand both domestically and internationally, despite expectations of increased supplies from Libya and the OPEC+ group. The prices were also supported by China's stimulus measures. The October delivery contract increased by 0.72% or Rs 41.00, while the November delivery contract rose by 0.58% or Rs 33.00. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures dropped on MCX as speculators trimmed their positions due to lingering demand concerns in China, despite latest stimulus plans. Crude oil prices slumped on easing worries over supply disruptions in Libya.The contract for October delivery was trading at Rs 5668.00, down by 2.96% or Rs 173.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5841.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 17749 lots.The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 5663.00, down by 2.73% or Rs 159.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5822.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 1331 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on MCX experienced a slight increase due to strong demand in domestic spot markets and concerns over supply due to conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, a significant interest-rate cut by the US Federal Reserve contributed to higher crude oil prices. The October delivery contract saw a 0.35% increase, while the November delivery contract saw a 0.4% increase. [Extracted from the article]

Oil prices rose amid rising tensions in the Middle East raising possibility of disruptions in supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The slowdown in China's economy may also be leading to an increase in Chinese exports being dumped in the Asian market, including India [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil futures declined on MCX, weighed down with caution as the US Federal Reserve entered the second day of its keenly anticipated September FOMC. Crude oil prices fell further as an industry report showed an increase in inventories in the United States.The contract for September delivery was trading at Rs 5921.00, down by 1.14% or Rs 68.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5989.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 4889 lots.The contract for October delivery was trading at Rs 5842.00, down by 1.02% or Rs 60.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5902.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 12926 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]

Crude oil futures on MCX experienced gains due to a strong demand in the spot market and the weakening of the US dollar. Investors are eagerly awaiting a decision from the Federal Reserve regarding its key interest rate. The September delivery contract saw a 0.59% increase, while the October delivery contract saw a 0.61% increase. [Extracted from the article]

Concerns about the outlook for oil demand from China weighed as well on oil prices [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil prices were also supported by the decision of OPEC+ to delay a production boost originally scheduled to begin in October [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil futures on MCX experienced a rise in prices due to concerns about a potential hurricane system approaching the US Gulf Coast. However, the uncertainty surrounding global demand and the possibility of a Federal rate cut in September have limited further gains in crude oil prices. The September delivery contract was trading at Rs 5769.00, up 1.14% from its previous closing, while the October delivery contract was trading at Rs 5737.00, up 1.04% from its previous closing. [Extracted from the article]

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude oil inventories dropped by 6.9 million barrels last week [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil prices were also weighed down by reports that OPEC is planning to restore 180,000 barrels per day of 2.2 million bpd of voluntary production cuts beginning next month [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday, while the US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil futures on MCX experienced a slight increase due to a decline in inventories in the United States and discussions among major producers OPEC+ about delaying an oil output increase. However, concerns about demand limited further price increases. The September delivery contract was trading at Rs 5855.00, up 0.07% from its previous closing, while the October delivery contract remained flat. [Extracted from the article]

prospects of more oil supply from OPEC and allied countries, collectively known as OPEC+ also weighed on oil prices [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil futures on MCX have declined due to concerns over weak demand in the world's two biggest oil consumers. The market is also anticipating an increase in production output from OPEC+ starting in October. Traders are awaiting key US jobs data, which could influence the central bank's decision on whether to implement a standard or larger rate cut this month. The September delivery contract is currently trading at Rs 6146.00, down 0.92% from its previous closing, while the October delivery contract is trading at Rs 6088.00, down 0.9% from its previous closing. [Extracted from the article]

OPEC+ is set to proceed with a planned oil output hike from October [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dollar's rebound weighed as well on oil prices [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crude oil futures on the MCX have increased due to speculators expanding their positions in response to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which could potentially disrupt oil supplies in the region. Additionally, the recent dovish statement made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting has also contributed to the upward trend in crude oil prices. The September delivery contract is currently trading at Rs 6510.00, up 0.42% or Rs 27.00 from its previous closing, with an open interest of 7868 lots. The October delivery contract is trading at Rs 6422.00, up 0.36% or Rs 23.00 from its previous closing, with an open interest of 607 lots on MCX. [Extracted from the article]