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We test the null hypothesis that two parameters $(\mu_1,\mu_2)$ have the same sign, assuming that (asymptotically) normal estimators $(\hat{\mu}_1,\hat{\mu}_2)$ are available. Examples of this problem include the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, causal interpretation of reduced-form estimands, meta-studies, and mediation analysis. A number of tests were recently proposed. We recommend a test that is simple and rejects more often than many of these recent proposals. Like all other tests in the literature, it is conservative if the truth is near $(0,0)$ and therefore also biased. To clarify whether these features are avoidable, we also provide a test that is unbiased and has exact size control on the boundary of the null hypothesis, but which has counterintuitive properties and hence we do not recommend. We use the test to improve p-values in Kowalski (2022) from information contained in that paper's main text and to establish statistical significance of some key estimates in Dippel et al. (2021)., Comment: Minor update that mostly reflects learning of new relevant references. No change to results

The SOUL systems at the Large Bincoular Telescope can be seen such as precursor for the ELT SCAO systems, combining together key technologies such as EMCCD, Pyramid WFS and adaptive telescopes. After the first light of the first upgraded system on September 2018, going through COVID and technical stops, we now have all the 4 systems working on-sky. Here, we report about some key control improvements and the system performance characterized during the commissioning. The upgrade allows us to correct more modes (500) in the bright end and increases the sky coverage providing SR(K)>20% with reference stars G$_{RP}$<17, opening to extragalcatic targets with NGS systems. Finally, we review the first astrophysical results, looking forward to the next generation instruments (SHARK-NIR, SHARK-Vis and iLocater), to be fed by the SOUL AO correction., Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, Adaptive Optics for Extremely Large Telescopes 7th Edition, 25-30 Jun 2023 Avignon (France)

Since 2014, the LBT's First Light Adaptive Optics (FLAO) system has also included a seldom used capability, known as Enhanced Seeing Mode (ESM), that can improve the angular resolution over a 4' x 4' field of view (FOV). In full AO operation, FLAO provides diffraction limited (DL) capabilities over a small (30" x 30") FOV. By comparison, ESM can achieve significantly enhanced resolution, over natural seeing, across a far larger FOV. This improves operational efficiency over standard seeing limited (SL) observations and is applicable across a broader range of scientific targets. ESM uses 11 modes of correction (including tip and tilt) to remove residual aberrations and jitter which significantly improves angular resolution over the full FOV. While this mode does not reach the DL, it can achieve uniform angular resolutions as good as 0".22 over the FOV. Furthermore, it allows for the use of multi-object spectroscopy with R~10,000 or imaging with angular resolution similar to that achieved by the Wide-Field Camera 3 infrared channel on the Hubble Space Telescope, but powered by 11.6 meters of effective aperture in binocular mode. As part of the on-going characterization of ESM, we have demonstrated that even in poor seeing conditions (1".5-2") the image quality delivered to the focal station is improved by factors of 2-3. Here, we present the first results of the characterization of ESM, including systematic tests of the delivered PSF across the FOV as a function of the brightness of, and distance from, the AO Reference Star. We present a range of galactic and extra-galactic targets showing the improvements obtained over a broad range of seeing conditions and propose ESM as a standard observational mode for near-Infrared observations., Comment: AO4ELT6 Conference Proceedings, 10 pages, 6 Figures

The Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) is a unique telescope featuring two co-mounted optical trains with 8.4m primary mirrors. The telescope Adaptive Optics (AO) system uses two innovative key components, namely an adaptive secondary mirror with 672 actuators and a high-order pyramid wave-front sensor. During the on-sky commissioning such a system reached performances never achieved before on large ground-based optical telescopes. Images with 40mas resolution and Strehl Ratios higher than 80% have been acquired in H band (1.6 micron). Such images showed a contrast as high as 10e-4. Based on these results, we compare the performances offered by a Natural Guide Star (NGS) system upgraded with the state-of-the-art technology and those delivered by existing Laser Guide Star (LGS) systems. The comparison, in terms of sky coverage and performances, suggests rethinking the current role ascribed to NGS and LGS in the next generation of AO systems for the 8-10 meter class telescopes and Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs)., Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures, Preented at SSPIE Optics + Photonics 2011, San Diego 20-25 August 2011

As the only directly imaged multiple planet system, HR 8799 provides a unique opportunity to study the physical properties of several planets in parallel. In this paper, we image all four of the HR 8799 planets at H-band and 3.3 microns with the new LBT adaptive optics system, PISCES, and LBTI/LMIRCam. Our images offer an unprecedented view of the system, allowing us to obtain H and 3.3$ micron photometry of the innermost planet (for the first time) and put strong upper-limits on the presence of a hypothetical fifth companion. We find that all four planets are unexpectedly bright at 3.3 microns compared to the equilibrium chemistry models used for field brown dwarfs, which predict that planets should be faint at 3.3 microns due to CH4 opacity. We attempt to model the planets with thick-cloudy, non-equilibrium chemistry atmospheres, but find that removing CH4 to fit the 3.3 micron photometry increases the predicted L' (3.8 microns) flux enough that it is inconsistent with observations. In an effort to fit the SED of the HR 8799 planets, we construct mixtures of cloudy atmospheres, which are intended to represent planets covered by clouds of varying opacity. In this scenario, regions with low opacity look hot and bright, while regions with high opacity look faint, similar to the patchy cloud structures on Jupiter and L/T transition brown-dwarfs. Our mixed cloud models reproduce all of the available data, but self-consistent models are still necessary to demonstrate their viability., Comment: Accepted to ApJ

We present the observational results of an L' and M band Adaptive Optics (AO) imaging survey of 54 nearby, sunlike stars for extrasolar planets, carried out using the Clio camera on the MMT. We have concentrated more strongly than all other planet imaging surveys to date on very nearby F, G, and K stars, prioritizing stellar proximity higher than youth. Ours is also the first survey to include extensive observations in the M band, which supplement the primary L' observations. Models predict much better planet/star flux ratios at the L' and M bands than at more commonly used shorter wavelengths (i.e. the H band). We have carried out extensive blind simulations with fake planets inserted into the raw data to verify our sensitivity, and to establish a definitive relationship between source significance in $\sigma$ and survey completeness. We find 97% confident-detection completeness for 10$\sigma$ sources, but only 46% for 7$\sigma$ sources -- raising concerns about the standard procedure of assuming high completeness at 5$\sigma$, and demonstrating that blind sensitivity tests to establish the significance-completeness relation are an important analysis step for all planet-imaging surveys. We discovered a previously unknown, approximately 0.15 solar-mass stellar companion to the F9 star GJ 3876, at a projected separation of about 80 AU. Twelve additional candidate faint companions are detected around other stars. Of these, eleven are confirmed to be background stars, and one is a previously known brown dwarf. We obtained sensitivity to planetary-mass objects around almost all of our target stars, with sensitivity to objects below 3 Jupiter masses in the best cases. Constraints on planet populations based on this null result are presented in our Modeling Results paper., Comment: 59 pages, 15 figures, supporting data available from http://www.hopewriter.com/Astronomyfiles/Data/SurveyPaper/

We have carried out an L' and M band Adaptive Optics (AO) extrasolar planet imaging survey of 54 nearby, sunlike stars using the Clio camera at the MMT. Our survey concentrates more strongly than all others to date on very nearby F, G, and K stars, in that we have prioritized proximity higher than youth. Our survey is also the first to include extensive observations in the M band, which supplemented the primary L' observations. These longer wavelength bands are most useful for very nearby systems in which low temperature planets with red IR colors (i.e. H - L', H - M) could be detected. The survey detected no planets, but set interesting limits on planets and brown dwarfs in the star systems we investigated. We have interpreted our null result by means of extensive Monte Carlo simulations, and constrained the distributions of extrasolar planets in mass $M$ and semimajor axis $a$. If planets are distributed according to a power law with $dN \propto M^{\alpha} a^{\beta} dM da$, normalized to be consistent with radial velocity statistics, we find that a distribution with $\alpha = -1.1$ and $\beta = -0.46$, truncated at 110 AU, is ruled out at the 90% confidence level. These particular values of $\alpha$ and $\beta$ are significant because they represent the most planet-rich case consistent with current statistics from radial velocity observations. With 90% confidence no more than 8.1% of stars like those in our survey have systems with three widely spaced, massive planets like the A-star HR 8799. Our observations show that giant planets in long-period orbits around sun-like stars are rare, confirming the results of shorter-wavelength surveys, and increasing the robustness of the conclusion., Comment: 30 pages, 6 figures, supporting data available from http://www.hopewriter.com/Astronomyfiles/Data/SurveyPaper/

A candidate < 3 Jupiter mass, extrasolar planet was recently imaged by Kalas et al. (2008) using HST/ACS at 12.7" (96 AU) separation from the nearby (d = 7.7 pc) young (~200 Myr) A2V star Fomalhaut. Here we report results from M-band (4.8 micron) imaging of Fomalhaut on 5 Dec 2006 using the Clio IR imager on the 6.5-m MMT with the adaptive secondary mirror. Our images are sensitive to giant planets at orbital radii comparable to the outer solar system (~5-40 AU). Comparing our 5-sigma M-band photometric limits to theoretical evolutionary tracks for substellar objects, our results rule out the existence of planets with masses greater than 2 Jupiter masses, from ~13-40 AU and objects greater than 13 Jupiter masses from ~8-40 AU., Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, submitted to ApJL, uses emulateapj.sty

We have obtained deep Adaptive Optics (AO) images of Vega and epsilon Eri to search for planetary-mass companions. We observed at the MMT in the L' (3.8 micron) and M (4.8 micron) bands using Clio, a recently commissioned imager optimized for these wavelengths. Observing at these long wavelengths represents a departure from the H band (1.65 microns) more commonly used for AO imaging searches for extrasolar planets. The long wavelengths offer better predicted planet/star flux ratios and cleaner (higher Strehl) AO images, at the cost of lower diffraction limited resolution and higher sky background. We have not detected any planets or planet candidates around Vega or epsilon Eri. We report the sensitivities obtained around both stars, which correspond to upper limits on any planetary companions which may exist. The sensitivities of our L' and M band observations are comparable to those of the best H-regime observations of these stars. For epsilon Eri our M band observations deliver considerably better sensitivity to close-in planets than any previously published results, and we show that the M band is by far the best wavelength choice for attempts at ground-based AO imaging of the known planet epsilon Eri b. The Clio camera itself with MMTAO may be capable of detecting epsilon Eri b at its 2010 apastron, given a multi-night observing campaign. Clio appears to be the only currently existing AO imager that has a realistic possibility of detecting epsilon Eri b., Comment: 45 pages, 15 figures, accepted to ApJ

Although T Tauri is one of the most studied young objects in astronomy, the nature of its circumstellar environment remains elusive due, in part, to the small angular separation of its three components (North-South and South a-b are separated by 0.68" and 0.12" respectively). Taking advantage of incredibly stable, high Strehl, PSFs obtained with Mid-IR adaptive optics at the 6.5 meter MMT, we are able to resolve the system on and off the 10um silicate dust feature (8.7um, 10.55um, and 11.86um; 10% bandwidth), and broad N. At these wavelengths, South a-b are separated by only ~0.3 lambda/D. This paper describes a robust Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to separate all three components astrometrically and photometrically, for the first time, in the mid-IR. Our results show that the silicate feature previously observed in the unresolved T Tau South binary is dominated by T Tau Sa's absorption, while Sb does not appear to have a significant feature. This suggests that a large circumbinary disk around Sa-Sb is not likely the primary source of cool dust in our line-of-sight, and that T Tau Sa is enshrouded by a nearly edge-on circumstellar disk. Surprisingly, T Tau Sb does not appear to have a similarly oriented disk., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, accepted to ApJ

We present the results of a survey of 45 young (<250 Myr), close (<50 pc) stars with the Simultaneous Differential Imager (SDI) implemented at the VLT and the MMT for the direct detection of extrasolar planets. As part of the survey, we observed 54 objects total, of which 45 were close, young stars, 2 were somewhat more distant (<150 pc), very young (<10 Myr) stars, 3 were stars with known radial velocity planets, and 4 were older, very nearby (<20 pc) solar analogues. Our SDI devices use a double Wollaston prism and a quad filter to take images simultaneously at 3 wavelengths surrounding the 1.62 um methane absorption bandhead found in the spectrum of cool brown dwarfs and gas giant planets. In our VLT data, we achieved H band contrasts > 10 mag (5 sigma) at a separation of 0.5" from the primary star on 45% of our targets and H band contrasts of > 9 mag at a separation of 0.5'' on 80% of our targets. With this degree of attenuation, we should be able to image (5sigma detection) a 5 M_{Jup} planet 15 AU from a 70 Myr K1 star at 15 pc or a 5 M_{Jup} planet at 2 AU from a 12 Myr M star at 10 pc. We believe that our SDI images are the highest contrast astronomical images ever made from ground or space for methane rich companions <1'' from their star. For the best 20 of our survey stars, we attained 50% 5 sigma completeness for 6-10 M_Jup planets at semi-major axes of 20-40 AU. Thus, our completeness levels are sufficient to significantly test theoretical planet distributions. From our survey null result, we can rule out (at the 98% confidence/2.0sigma level) a model planet population using a planet distribution where N(a) $\propto$ constant out to a distance of 45 AU (further model assumptions discussed within)., Comment: 69 pages, 25 figures, accepted to ApJS, supplemental materials available at http://exoplanet.as.arizona.edu/~lclose/SDI.html

Vega may have a massive companion in a wide orbit, as evidenced by structure in its cold dust debris. We have tested this hypothesis by direct imaging with adaptive optics in the M band. The observations were made with a newly commissioned thermal infrared camera, Clio, on the 6.5 MMT AO system with low-background deformable secondary. The observations constrain a planet to be less than 7 M$_J$ at the approximate position angle expected from the dust structure and at a radius $>$ 20AU (2.5 arcsec) . This result is more stringent than similar previous near-infrared observations of Vega, that achieve limits of 20 and 10 M$_J$ at separations of 7 arcsec. The higher sensitivity is due both to the more favorable contrast of gas giant planets at M band and to the higher Strehl and more stable point spread function at longer wavelengths. Future L' or M band observations could provide a powerful approach for wide separation planet detection, especially for cooler, and thus older or less massive planets. The natural best targets are nearby stars where planets in the range of 5-15 M$_J$ and as old as several Gyr are expected to be detectable with this technique., Comment: accepted to ApJ June 6, 2006

This paper exploits a new source of variation in Head Start funding to identify the program's effects on health and schooling. In 1965 the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) provided technical assistance to the 300 poorest counties in the U.S. to develop Head Start funding proposals. The result was a large and lasting discontinuity in Head Start funding rates at the OEO cutoff for grant-writing assistance, but no discontinuity in other forms of federal social spending. We find evidence of a large negative discontinuity at the OEO cutoff in mortality rates for children ages 5-9 from causes that could be affected by Head Start, but not for other mortality causes or birth cohorts that should not be affected by the program. We also find suggestive evidence for a positive effect of Head Start on educational attainment in both the 1990 Census, concentrated among those cohorts born late enough to have been exposed to the program, and among respondents in the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988. The following are appended: (1) Data Sources; and (2) "Optimal" Bandwidth Selection for Semi-Parametric Regression Discontinuity Estimates. (Contains 11 tables, 21 figures, and 45 footnotes.)

Describes a high school civics course constructed almost solely around a close reading of the Declaration of Independence, United States Constitution, and Gettysburg Address. Maintains that understanding these documents establishes the minimum essentials of civic literacy and frees classes from the burden of irrelevant and unreadable textbooks. (MJP)

In this paper we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across US states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences are largely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.

The goal of this project is to gain further understanding of soil moisture/temperature dynamics at different spatio-temporal scales and physical controls/parameters.We created a comprehensive GIS database, which has been accessed extensively by NASA Land Surface Hydrology investigators (and others), is located at the following URL: http://www.essc.psu.edu/nasalsh. For soil moisture field experiments such as SGP97, SGP99, SMEX02, and SMEX03, cartographic products were designed for multiple applications, both pre- and post-mission. Premission applications included flight line planning and field operations logistics, as well as general insight into the extent and distribution of soil, vegetation, and topographic properties for the study areas. The cartographic products were created from original spatial information resources that were imported into Adobe Illustrator, where the maps were created and PDF versions were made for distribution and download.

With the emergence of reasonably robust, physically based rain rate algorithms designed for the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), a unique opportunity exists to directly observe a physical component which can contribute to or be a signature of cyclone deepening (latent heat release). The emphasis of the research in this paper is to seek systematic differences in rain rate observed by the SSM/I, using the algorithm of Petty in cases of explosive and nonexplosive cyclone deepening.

The distribution of absolute blue magnitudes among Type Ia supernovae (SNs Ia) is studied. Supernovae were used with well determined apparent magnitudes at maximum light and parent galaxies with relative distances determined by the Tully-Fisher or Dn - sigma techniques. The mean absolute blue magnitude is given and the observational dispersion is only sigma(MB) 0.36, comparable to the expected combined errors in distance, apparent magnitude, and extinction. The mean (B-V) color at maximum light is 0.03 +/- 0.04, with a dispersion sigma(B-V) = 0.20. The Cepheid-based distance to IC 4182, the parent galaxy of the normal and unextinguished Type Ia SN 1937C, leads to a Hubble constant of H(0) + 51 +/- 12 km/s Mpc. The existence of a few SNs Ia that appear to have been reddened and dimmed by dust in their parent galaxies does not seriously compromise the use of SNs Ia as distance indicators.

This working paper discusses the statistical simulation part of a controlled software development experiment being conducted under the direction of the System Validation Methods Branch, Information Systems Division, NASA Langley Research Center. The experiment uses guidance and control software (GCS) aboard a fictitious planetary landing spacecraft: real-time control software operating on a transient mission. Software execution is simulated to study the statistical aspects of reliability and other failure characteristics of the software during development, testing, and random usage. Quantification of software reliability is a major goal. Various reliability concepts are discussed. Experiments are described for performing simulations and collecting appropriate simulated software performance and failure data. This data is then used to make statistical inferences about the quality of the software development and verification processes as well as inferences about the reliability of software versions and reliability growth under random testing and debugging.

The aim of this article is to estimate surface latent heat fluxes in the vicinity of a rapidly deepening cyclone before and during its period of most rapid intensification. This is done with a bulk parameterization scheme and remotely sensed input data. A method for estimating the difference in specific humidity between the surface and a 10-m height is investigated using the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager-observed integrated water vapor field and a sea surface temperature analysis. The surface latent heat flux fields generally have estimated errors below 40 percent south of 40 deg N and outside the region of high integrated water vapor values associated with frontal bands. The method of estimating surface latent heat fluxes for the case study was found to be usable in most regions of the northwest Atlantic Ocean except for those locations directly adjacent to coastlines in instances of offshore flow and in the vicinity of surface fronts.

During the six-month period from 1 April 1991 to 30 September 1991 the following research papers in statistical modeling of software reliability appeared: (1) A Nonparametric Software Reliability Growth Model; (2) On the Use and the Performance of Software Reliability Growth Models; (3) Research and Development Issues in Software Reliability Engineering; (4) Special Issues on Software; and (5) Software Reliability and Safety.

The authors (1985) previously introduced a nonparametric model for software-reliability growth which is based on complete monotonicity of the failure rate. The authors extend the completely monotone software model by developing a method for providing long-range predictions of reliability growth, based on the model. They derive upper and lower bounds on extrapolation of the failure rate and the mean function. These are then used to obtain estimates for the future software failure rate and the mean future number of failures. Preliminary evaluation indicates that the method is competitive with parametric approaches, while being more robust.

We address the problem of predicting future failures for a piece of software. The number of failures occurring during a finite future time interval is predicted from the number failures observed during an initial period of usage by using software reliability growth models. Two different methods for using the models are considered: straightforward use of individual models, and dynamic selection among models based on goodness-of-fit and quality-of-prediction criteria. Performance is judged by the relative error of the predicted number of failures over future finite time intervals relative to the number of failures eventually observed during the intervals. Six of the former models and eight of the latter are evaluated, based on their performance on twenty data sets. Many open questions remain regarding the use and the performance of software reliability growth models.

When two long-established institutions attempt a cooperative program, there can be several different kinds of conflicts. A current trend is to arrange cooperative projects between school systems and the teacher preparation component of a college or university. One such project, an inner-city student teaching program is reviewed in this paper. First, the structure and history of the program are discussed. Then, two sections examine the organization and institutional conflicts (persons-in-positions, person-shuffling, spheres of influence, implicit vs. explicit policy, and financial conflicts), and climate and expectation conflicts (personal defensiveness, competition and rivalry, racial attitudes, and student attitudes). An overall theme of this paper is the "person-in-a-position", i.e., the conflicts which arise, or are avoided, as the result of the specific person who occupies a specific position. (Author/AM)

This study compared the performance of 59 black students and 32 white students on tasks requiring formal operations. The study compared groups from different racial backgrounds and similar socioeconomic environments. It was assumed that if socioeconomic difference was a more weighty experience factor than was racial difference, then differences in performance on the formal operations tasks should be minimal. It was also assumed that the racial designation of students was not a sufficient experience factor to cause important differences of performance on formal operations tasks. A 2,000 student comprehensive high school in a large midwestern city was selected as the setting for the study because it was racially mixed and because few of the students were on welfare. This suggested (along with sociogeographic data) that both the white and black students were of equivalent socioeconomic status. Formal operations problems included combinations, exclusions, and proportions. Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices were also administered. The only significant differences in scores between the two groups appeared on the combination problems. It was concluded that at the formal operational level of cognitive processing, differences of performance cannot be attributed only to racial hertiage. Experience does affect cognitive processing, but, since cultures here are only identified by racial designations and do not consist of racial differences, the important experiences are not racial. (Author/AM)