Search

Compromise estimation entails using a weighted average of outputs from several candidate models, and is a viable alternative to model selection when the choice of model is not obvious. As such, it is a tool used by both frequentists and Bayesians, and in both cases, the literature is vast and includes studies of performance in simulations and applied examples. However, frequentist researchers often prove oracle properties, showing that a proposed average asymptotically performs at least as well as any other average comprising the same candidates. On the Bayesian side, such oracle properties are yet to be established. This paper considers Bayesian stacking estimators, and evaluates their performance using frequentist asymptotics. Oracle properties are derived for estimators stacking Bayesian linear and logistic regression models, and combined with Monte Carlo experiments that show Bayesian stacking may outperform the best candidate model included in the stack. Thus, the result is not only a frequentist motivation of a fundamentally Bayesian procedure, but also an extended range of methods available to frequentist practitioners.

Training data compositions for Large Language Models (LLMs) can significantly affect their downstream performance. However, a thorough data ablation study exploring large sets of candidate data mixtures is typically prohibitively expensive since the full effect is seen only after training the models; this can lead practitioners to settle for sub-optimal data mixtures. We propose an efficient method for approximating data ablations which trains individual models on subsets of a training corpus and reuses them across evaluations of combinations of subsets. In continued pre-training experiments, we find that, given an arbitrary evaluation set, the perplexity score of a single model trained on a candidate set of data is strongly correlated with perplexity scores of parameter averages of models trained on distinct partitions of that data. From this finding, we posit that researchers and practitioners can conduct inexpensive simulations of data ablations by maintaining a pool of models that were each trained on partitions of a large training corpus, and assessing candidate data mixtures by evaluating parameter averages of combinations of these models. This approach allows for substantial improvements in amortized training efficiency -- scaling only linearly with respect to new data -- by enabling reuse of previous training computation, opening new avenues for improving model performance through rigorous, incremental data assessment and mixing., Comment: EMNLP 2024. 17 pages

Maps of dynamics are effective representations of motion patterns learned from prior observations, with recent research demonstrating their ability to enhance performance in various downstream tasks such as human-aware robot navigation, long-term human motion prediction, and robot localization. Current advancements have primarily concentrated on methods for learning maps of human flow in environments where the flow is static, i.e., not assumed to change over time. In this paper we propose a method to update the CLiFF-map, one type of map of dynamics, for achieving efficient life-long robot operation. As new observations are collected, our goal is to update a CLiFF-map to effectively and accurately integrate new observations, while retaining relevant historic motion patterns. The proposed online update method maintains a probabilistic representation in each observed location, updating parameters by continuously tracking sufficient statistics. In experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our method is able to maintain accurate representations of human motion dynamics, contributing to high performance flow-compliant planning downstream tasks, while being orders of magnitude faster than the comparable baselines.

The generality and robustness of inference algorithms is critical to the success of widely used probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, PyMC, Pyro, and Turing.jl. When designing a new general-purpose inference algorithm, whether it involves Monte Carlo sampling or variational approximation, the fundamental problem arises in evaluating its accuracy and efficiency across a range of representative target models. To solve this problem, we propose posteriordb, a database of models and data sets defining target densities along with reference Monte Carlo draws. We further provide a guide to the best practices in using posteriordb for model evaluation and comparison. To provide a wide range of realistic target densities, posteriordb currently comprises 120 representative models and has been instrumental in developing several general inference algorithms.

We study the legal challenges in automated decision-making by analysing conventional algorithmic fairness approaches and their alignment with antidiscrimination law in the United Kingdom and other jurisdictions based on English common law. By translating principles of anti-discrimination law into a decision-theoretic framework, we formalise discrimination and propose a new, legally informed approach to developing systems for automated decision-making. Our investigation reveals that while algorithmic fairness approaches have adapted concepts from legal theory, they can conflict with legal standards, highlighting the importance of bridging the gap between automated decisions, fairness, and anti-discrimination doctrine.

The human gaze is an important cue to signal intention, attention, distraction, and the regions of interest in the immediate surroundings. Gaze tracking can transform how robots perceive, understand, and react to people, enabling new modes of robot control, interaction, and collaboration. In this paper, we use gaze tracking data from a rich dataset of human motion (TH\"OR-MAGNI) to investigate the coordination between gaze direction and head rotation of humans engaged in various indoor activities involving navigation, interaction with objects, and collaboration with a mobile robot. In particular, we study the spread and central bias of fixations in diverse activities and examine the correlation between gaze direction and head rotation. We introduce various human motion metrics to enhance the understanding of gaze behavior in dynamic interactions. Finally, we apply semantic object labeling to decompose the gaze distribution into activity-relevant regions., Comment: This is the final version of the accepted version of the manuscript that will be published in the 2024 33rd IEEE International Conference on Robot and Human Interactive Communication (ROMAN). Copyright 2024 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models have quickly emerged as a promising methodology for accurate medium-range global weather forecasting. Here, we introduce the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), a data driven forecast model developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). AIFS is based on a graph neural network (GNN) encoder and decoder, and a sliding window transformer processor, and is trained on ECMWF's ERA5 re-analysis and ECMWF's operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) analyses. It has a flexible and modular design and supports several levels of parallelism to enable training on high-resolution input data. AIFS forecast skill is assessed by comparing its forecasts to NWP analyses and direct observational data. We show that AIFS produces highly skilled forecasts for upper-air variables, surface weather parameters and tropical cyclone tracks. AIFS is run four times daily alongside ECMWF's physics-based NWP model and forecasts are available to the public under ECMWF's open data policy.

In this note we show that a weakly geometrically flat map $\pi$ : M $\rightarrow$ N between pure dimensional complex spaces has the local lifting property for cycles. From this result we also deduce that, under these hypotheses, several properties of M are transferred to N.

We present subwavelength resonant lattices fashioned as nano- and microstructured films as a basis for a host of device concepts. Whereas the canonical physical properties are fully embodied in a one-dimensional periodic lattice, the final device constructs are often patterned in two-dimensionally-modulated films in which case we may refer to them as photonic crystal slabs, metamaterials, or metasurfaces. These surfaces can support lateral modes and localized field signatures with propagative and evanescent diffraction channels critically controlling the response. The governing principle of guided-mode, or lattice, resonance enables diverse spectral expressions such that a single-layer component can behave as a sensor, reflector, filter, or polarizer. This structural sparsity contrasts strongly with the venerable field of multi-layer thin-film optics that is basis for most optical components on the market today. The lattice resonance effect can be exploited in all major spectral regions with appropriate low-loss materials and fabrication resources. In this paper, we highlight resonant device technology and present our work on design, fabrication, and characterization of optical elements operating in the near-IR, mid-IR, and long-wave IR spectral regions. Examples of fabricated and tested devices include biological sensors, high-contrast-ratio polarizers, narrow-band notch filters, and wideband high reflectors., Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures

Autonomous driving technology is increasingly being used on public roads and in industrial settings such as mines. While it is essential to detect pedestrians, vehicles, or other obstacles, adverse field conditions negatively affect the performance of classical sensors such as cameras or lidars. Radar, on the other hand, is a promising modality that is less affected by, e.g., dust, smoke, water mist or fog. In particular, modern 4D imaging radars provide target responses across the range, vertical angle, horizontal angle and Doppler velocity dimensions. We propose TMVA4D, a CNN architecture that leverages this 4D radar modality for semantic segmentation. The CNN is trained to distinguish between the background and person classes based on a series of 2D projections of the 4D radar data that include the elevation, azimuth, range, and Doppler velocity dimensions. We also outline the process of compiling a novel dataset consisting of data collected in industrial settings with a car-mounted 4D radar and describe how the ground-truth labels were generated from reference thermal images. Using TMVA4D on this dataset, we achieve an mIoU score of 78.2% and an mDice score of 86.1%, evaluated on the two classes background and person, Comment: Submitted to Radar in Robotics workshop at ICRA 2024

We present the first report on fabrication of Hafnium aluminum nitride chiral sculptured thin films (CSTFs) using reactive magnetron sputtering in a glancing angle deposition configuration, and the analysis of its optical polarization properties. The resulting CSTFs were designed to give interference extrema or so-called circular Bragg (CB) resonances at desired wavelengths in the region from 370 to 690 nm. This was achieved by tailoring the growth of the chiral thin films to obtain a dielectric pitch between 87 and 260.9 nm. The spectral positions of the obtained CB resonances were compared to values from analytical expressions. Contrary to the common case where the dielectric pitch is half of the growth-related rotational pitch due to a 180{\deg} symmetry, this pitch was shown to be the same as the rotational pitch. It is concluded that this is due to the c-axis of the CSTF being tilted about 45{\deg} from the substrate normal. The morphology and crystallographic characterizations were done using scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction, respectively, while the tilt of the crystal lattice was corroborated using X-ray diffraction pole figures. The optical response from the CSTFs was analyzed using Mueller matrix spectroscopic ellipsometry from which the degree of circular polarization at the CB resonances was obtained. In addition, a strong non-reciprocal reflection was observed which could be attributed to the helicoidal morphology and the intrinsic crystal tilt. An optical layered model of the chiral structure including azimuthal twist and using the Cauchy dispersion relations was used to simulate the Mueller matrix elements and compare with the ellipsometry measurements. The correlation between the simulated and experimental data gave information of the morphological parameters of the CSTF and its optical properties.

Reinforcement learning has recently gained unprecedented popularity, yet it still grapples with sample inefficiency. Addressing this challenge, federated reinforcement learning (FedRL) has emerged, wherein agents collaboratively learn a single policy by aggregating local estimations. However, this aggregation step incurs significant communication costs. In this paper, we propose CompFedRL, a communication-efficient FedRL approach incorporating both \textit{periodic aggregation} and (direct/error-feedback) compression mechanisms. Specifically, we consider compressed federated $Q$-learning with a generative model setup, where a central server learns an optimal $Q$-function by periodically aggregating compressed $Q$-estimates from local agents. For the first time, we characterize the impact of these two mechanisms (which have remained elusive) by providing a finite-time analysis of our algorithm, demonstrating strong convergence behaviors when utilizing either direct or error-feedback compression. Our bounds indicate improved solution accuracy concerning the number of agents and other federated hyperparameters while simultaneously reducing communication costs. To corroborate our theory, we also conduct in-depth numerical experiments to verify our findings, considering Top-$K$ and Sparsified-$K$ sparsification operators., Comment: European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML-PKDD 2024)

Long-term human motion prediction (LHMP) is essential for safely operating autonomous robots and vehicles in populated environments. It is fundamental for various applications, including motion planning, tracking, human-robot interaction and safety monitoring. However, accurate prediction of human trajectories is challenging due to complex factors, including, for example, social norms and environmental conditions. The influence of such factors can be captured through Maps of Dynamics (MoDs), which encode spatial motion patterns learned from (possibly scattered and partial) past observations of motion in the environment and which can be used for data-efficient, interpretable motion prediction (MoD-LHMP). To address the limitations of prior work, especially regarding accuracy and sensitivity to anomalies in long-term prediction, we propose the Laminar Component Enhanced LHMP approach (LaCE-LHMP). Our approach is inspired by data-driven airflow modelling, which estimates laminar and turbulent flow components and uses predominantly the laminar components to make flow predictions. Based on the hypothesis that human trajectory patterns also manifest laminar flow (that represents predictable motion) and turbulent flow components (that reflect more unpredictable and arbitrary motion), LaCE-LHMP extracts the laminar patterns in human dynamics and uses them for human motion prediction. We demonstrate the superior prediction performance of LaCE-LHMP through benchmark comparisons with state-of-the-art LHMP methods, offering an unconventional perspective and a more intuitive understanding of human movement patterns., Comment: Accepted to the 2024 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA)

We propose a dense RGBD SLAM system based on 3D Gaussian Splatting that provides metrically accurate pose tracking and visually realistic reconstruction. To this end, we first propose a Gaussian densification strategy based on the rendering loss to map unobserved areas and refine reobserved areas. Second, we introduce extra regularization parameters to alleviate the forgetting problem in the continuous mapping problem, where parameters tend to overfit the latest frame and result in decreasing rendering quality for previous frames. Both mapping and tracking are performed with Gaussian parameters by minimizing re-rendering loss in a differentiable way. Compared to recent neural and concurrently developed gaussian splatting RGBD SLAM baselines, our method achieves state-of-the-art results on the synthetic dataset Replica and competitive results on the real-world dataset TUM., Comment: Accepted by IROS 2024

Deep learning-based probabilistic models of musical data are producing increasingly realistic results and promise to enter creative workflows of many kinds. Yet they have been little-studied in a performance setting, where the results of user actions typically ought to feel instantaneous. To enable such study, we designed Notochord, a deep probabilistic model for sequences of structured events, and trained an instance of it on the Lakh MIDI dataset. Our probabilistic formulation allows interpretable interventions at a sub-event level, which enables one model to act as a backbone for diverse interactive musical functions including steerable generation, harmonization, machine improvisation, and likelihood-based interfaces. Notochord can generate polyphonic and multi-track MIDI, and respond to inputs with latency below ten milliseconds. Training code, model checkpoints and interactive examples are provided as open source software., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures. Proceedings of the 3rd Conference on AI Music Creativity (2022, September 17)

Segmentation of brain structures on MRI is the primary step for further quantitative analysis of brain diseases. Manual segmentation is still considered the gold standard in terms of accuracy; however, such data is extremely time-consuming to generate. This paper presents a deep learning-based segmentation approach for 12 deep-brain structures, utilizing multiple region-based U-Nets. The brain is divided into three focal regions of interest that encompass the brainstem, the ventricular system, and the striatum. Next, three region-based U-nets are run in parallel to parcellate these larger structures into their respective four substructures. This approach not only greatly reduces the training and processing times but also significantly enhances the segmentation accuracy, compared to segmenting the entire MRI image at once. Our approach achieves remarkable accuracy with an average Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) of 0.901 and 95% Hausdorff Distance (HD95) of 1.155 mm. The method was compared with state-of-the-art segmentation approaches, demonstrating a high level of accuracy and robustness of the proposed method., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, 21st IEEE International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging

We present a new large dataset of indoor human and robot navigation and interaction, called TH\"OR-MAGNI, that is designed to facilitate research on social navigation: e.g., modelling and predicting human motion, analyzing goal-oriented interactions between humans and robots, and investigating visual attention in a social interaction context. TH\"OR-MAGNI was created to fill a gap in available datasets for human motion analysis and HRI. This gap is characterized by a lack of comprehensive inclusion of exogenous factors and essential target agent cues, which hinders the development of robust models capable of capturing the relationship between contextual cues and human behavior in different scenarios. Unlike existing datasets, TH\"OR-MAGNI includes a broader set of contextual features and offers multiple scenario variations to facilitate factor isolation. The dataset includes many social human-human and human-robot interaction scenarios, rich context annotations, and multi-modal data, such as walking trajectories, gaze tracking data, and lidar and camera streams recorded from a mobile robot. We also provide a set of tools for visualization and processing of the recorded data. TH\"OR-MAGNI is, to the best of our knowledge, unique in the amount and diversity of sensor data collected in a contextualized and socially dynamic environment, capturing natural human-robot interactions., Comment: Submitted to The International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR) on 28 of February 2024

Scene flow estimation is an essential ingredient for a variety of real-world applications, especially for autonomous agents, such as self-driving cars and robots. While recent scene flow estimation approaches achieve a reasonable accuracy, their applicability to real-world systems additionally benefits from a reliability measure. Aiming at improving accuracy while additionally providing an estimate for uncertainty, we propose DiffSF that combines transformer-based scene flow estimation with denoising diffusion models. In the diffusion process, the ground truth scene flow vector field is gradually perturbed by adding Gaussian noise. In the reverse process, starting from randomly sampled Gaussian noise, the scene flow vector field prediction is recovered by conditioning on a source and a target point cloud. We show that the diffusion process greatly increases the robustness of predictions compared to prior approaches resulting in state-of-the-art performance on standard scene flow estimation benchmarks. Moreover, by sampling multiple times with different initial states, the denoising process predicts multiple hypotheses, which enables measuring the output uncertainty, allowing our approach to detect a majority of the inaccurate predictions. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhangYushan3/DiffSF.

Data similarity assumptions have traditionally been relied upon to understand the convergence behaviors of federated learning methods. Unfortunately, this approach often demands fine-tuning step sizes based on the level of data similarity. When data similarity is low, these small step sizes result in an unacceptably slow convergence speed for federated methods. In this paper, we present a novel and unified framework for analyzing the convergence of federated learning algorithms without the need for data similarity conditions. Our analysis centers on an inequality that captures the influence of step sizes on algorithmic convergence performance. By applying our theorems to well-known federated algorithms, we derive precise expressions for three widely used step size schedules: fixed, diminishing, and step-decay step sizes, which are independent of data similarity conditions. Finally, we conduct comprehensive evaluations of the performance of these federated learning algorithms, employing the proposed step size strategies to train deep neural network models on benchmark datasets under varying data similarity conditions. Our findings demonstrate significant improvements in convergence speed and overall performance, marking a substantial advancement in federated learning research., Comment: Accepted by the IEEE Transactions on Big Data Journal

Parallel stochastic gradient methods are gaining prominence in solving large-scale machine learning problems that involve data distributed across multiple nodes. However, obtaining unbiased stochastic gradients, which have been the focus of most theoretical research, is challenging in many distributed machine learning applications. The gradient estimations easily become biased, for example, when gradients are compressed or clipped, when data is shuffled, and in meta-learning and reinforcement learning. In this work, we establish worst-case bounds on parallel momentum methods under biased gradient estimation on both general non-convex and $\mu$-PL problems. Our analysis covers general distributed optimization problems, and we work out the implications for special cases where gradient estimates are biased, i.e. in meta-learning and when the gradients are compressed or clipped. Our numerical experiments verify our theoretical findings and show faster convergence performance of momentum methods than traditional biased gradient descent., Comment: 12 pages

The near-term utility of quantum computers is hindered by hardware constraints in the form of noise. One path to achieving noise resilience in hybrid quantum algorithms is to decrease the required circuit depth -- the number of applied gates -- to solve a given problem. This work demonstrates how to reduce circuit depth by combining the transcorrelated (TC) approach with adaptive quantum ans\"atze and their implementations in the context of variational quantum imaginary time evolution (AVQITE). The combined TC-AVQITE method is used to calculate ground state energies across the potential energy surfaces of H$_4$, LiH, and H$_2$O. In particular, H$_4$ is a notoriously difficult case where unitary coupled cluster theory, including singles and doubles excitations, fails to provide accurate results. Adding TC yields energies close to the complete basis set (CBS) limit while reducing the number of necessary operators -- and thus circuit depth -- in the adaptive ans\"atze. The reduced circuit depth furthermore makes our algorithm more noise-resilient and accelerates convergence. Our study demonstrates that combining the TC method with adaptive ans\"atze yields compact, noise-resilient, and easy-to-optimize quantum circuits that yield accurate quantum chemistry results close to the CBS limit.

The accurate prediction of intense precipitation events is one of the main objectives of operational weather services. This task is even more relevant nowadays, with the rapid progression of global warming which intensifies these events. Numerical weather prediction models have improved continuously over time, providing uncertainty estimation with dynamical ensembles. However, direct precipitation forecasting is still challenging. Greater availability of machine learning tools paves the way to a hybrid forecasting approach, with the optimal combination of physical models, event statistics, and user-oriented post-processing. Here we describe a specific chain, based on a random forest pipeline, specialised in recognizing favourable synoptic conditions leading to precipitation extremes and subsequently classifying extremes into predefined types. The application focuses on Northern and Central Italy, taken as a testbed region, but is seamlessly extensible to other regions and timescales. The system is called MaLCoX (Machine Learning model predicting Conditions for eXtreme precipitation) and is running daily at the Italian regional weather service of ARPAE Emilia-Romagna. MalCoX has been trained with the ARCIS gridded high-resolution precipitation dataset as the target truth, using the last 20 years of the ECMWF re-forecast dataset as input predictors. We show that, with a long enough training period, the optimal blend of larger-scale information with direct model output improves the probabilistic forecast accuracy of extremes in the medium range. In addition, with specific methods, we provide a useful diagnostic to convey to forecasters the underlying physical storyline which makes a meteorological event extreme., Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures

Language models (LMs) have become ubiquitous in both NLP research and in commercial product offerings. As their commercial importance has surged, the most powerful models have become closed off, gated behind proprietary interfaces, with important details of their training data, architectures, and development undisclosed. Given the importance of these details in scientifically studying these models, including their biases and potential risks, we believe it is essential for the research community to have access to powerful, truly open LMs. To this end, we have built OLMo, a competitive, truly Open Language Model, to enable the scientific study of language models. Unlike most prior efforts that have only released model weights and inference code, we release OLMo alongside open training data and training and evaluation code. We hope this release will empower the open research community and inspire a new wave of innovation.

Information about pretraining corpora used to train the current best-performing language models is seldom discussed: commercial models rarely detail their data, and even open models are often released without accompanying training data or recipes to reproduce them. As a result, it is challenging to conduct and advance scientific research on language modeling, such as understanding how training data impacts model capabilities and limitations. To facilitate scientific research on language model pretraining, we curate and release Dolma, a three-trillion-token English corpus, built from a diverse mixture of web content, scientific papers, code, public-domain books, social media, and encyclopedic materials. We extensively document Dolma, including its design principles, details about its construction, and a summary of its contents. We present analyses and experimental results on intermediate states of Dolma to share what we have learned about important data curation practices. Finally, we open-source our data curation toolkit to enable reproduction of our work as well as support further research in large-scale data curation., Comment: Accepted at ACL 2024; Dataset: https://hf.co/datasets/allenai/dolma; Code: https://github.com/allenai/dolma

This paper presents a description of a real-world, multivariate time series dataset collected from an anonymized engine component (called Component X) of a fleet of trucks from SCANIA, Sweden. This dataset includes diverse variables capturing detailed operational data, repair records, and specifications of trucks while maintaining confidentiality by anonymization. It is well-suited for a range of machine learning applications, such as classification, regression, survival analysis, and anomaly detection, particularly when applied to predictive maintenance scenarios. The large population size and variety of features in the format of histograms and numerical counters, along with the inclusion of temporal information, make this real-world dataset unique in the field. The objective of releasing this dataset is to give a broad range of researchers the possibility of working with real-world data from an internationally well-known company and introduce a standard benchmark to the predictive maintenance field, fostering reproducible research., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures

The rapid influx of data-driven models into the industrial sector has been facilitated by the proliferation of sensor technology, enabling the collection of vast quantities of data. However, leveraging these models for failure detection and prognosis poses significant challenges, including issues like missing values and class imbalances. Moreover, the cost sensitivity associated with industrial operations further complicates the application of conventional models in this context. This paper introduces a novel cost-sensitive transformer model developed as part of a systematic workflow, which also integrates a hybrid resampler and a regression-based imputer. After subjecting our approach to rigorous testing using the APS failure dataset from Scania trucks and the SECOM dataset, we observed a substantial enhancement in performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, we conduct an ablation study to analyze the contributions of different components in our proposed method. Our findings highlight the potential of our method in addressing the unique challenges of failure prediction in industrial settings, thereby contributing to enhanced reliability and efficiency in industrial operations.

Neural implicit surface representations are currently receiving a lot of interest as a means to achieve high-fidelity surface reconstruction at a low memory cost, compared to traditional explicit representations.However, state-of-the-art methods still struggle with excessive memory usage and non-smooth surfaces. This is particularly problematic in large-scale applications with sparse inputs, as is common in robotics use cases. To address these issues, we first introduce a sparse structure, \emph{tri-quadtrees}, which represents the environment using learnable features stored in three planar quadtree projections. Secondly, we concatenate the learnable features with a Fourier feature positional encoding. The combined features are then decoded into signed distance values through a small multi-layer perceptron. We demonstrate that this approach facilitates smoother reconstruction with a higher completion ratio with fewer holes. Compared to two recent baselines, one implicit and one explicit, our approach requires only 10\%--50\% as much memory, while achieving competitive quality., Comment: ICRA2024

The Domain Name System (DNS) comprises name servers translating domain names into, commonly, IP addresses. Authoritative name servers hosts the resource records (RR) for certain zones, and resolver name servers are responsible for querying and answering DNS queries on behalf of their clients. Unfortunately, cybercriminals often use DNS for malicious purposes, such as phishing, malware distribution, and botnet communication. To combat these threats, filtering resolvers have become increasingly popular, employing various techniques to identify and block malicious requests. In this paper, we survey several techniques to implement and enhance the capabilities of filtering resolvers including response policy zones, threat intelligence feeds, and detection of algorithmically generated domains. We identify the current trends of each area and find missing intersections in the literature, which could be used to improve the effectiveness of filtering resolvers. In addition, we propose future work designing a framework for filtering resolvers using state-of-the-art approaches identified in this study.

Language models (LMs) commonly report perplexity on monolithic data held out from training. Implicitly or explicitly, this data is composed of domains$\unicode{x2013}$varying distributions of language. Rather than assuming perplexity on one distribution extrapolates to others, Perplexity Analysis for Language Model Assessment (Paloma), measures LM fit to 585 text domains, ranging from nytimes.com to r/depression on Reddit. We invite submissions to our benchmark and organize results by comparability based on compliance with guidelines such as removal of benchmark contamination from pretraining. Submissions can also record parameter and training token count to make comparisons of Pareto efficiency for performance as a function of these measures of cost. We populate our benchmark with results from 6 baselines pretrained on popular corpora. In case studies, we demonstrate analyses that are possible with Paloma, such as finding that pretraining without data beyond Common Crawl leads to inconsistent fit to many domains., Comment: Project Page: https://paloma.allen.ai/

The success of large language models has shifted the evaluation paradigms in natural language processing (NLP). The community's interest has drifted towards comparing NLP models across many tasks, domains, and datasets, often at an extreme scale. This imposes new engineering challenges: efforts in constructing datasets and models have been fragmented, and their formats and interfaces are incompatible. As a result, it often takes extensive (re)implementation efforts to make fair and controlled comparisons at scale. Catwalk aims to address these issues. Catwalk provides a unified interface to a broad range of existing NLP datasets and models, ranging from both canonical supervised training and fine-tuning, to more modern paradigms like in-context learning. Its carefully-designed abstractions allow for easy extensions to many others. Catwalk substantially lowers the barriers to conducting controlled experiments at scale. For example, we finetuned and evaluated over 64 models on over 86 datasets with a single command, without writing any code. Maintained by the AllenNLP team at the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2), Catwalk is an ongoing open-source effort: https://github.com/allenai/catwalk., Comment: technical report, work in progress

Existing asynchronous distributed optimization algorithms often use diminishing step-sizes that cause slow practical convergence, or use fixed step-sizes that depend on and decrease with an upper bound of the delays. Not only are such delay bounds hard to obtain in advance, but they also tend to be large and rarely attained, resulting in unnecessarily slow convergence. This paper develops asynchronous versions of two distributed algorithms, Prox-DGD and DGD-ATC, for solving consensus optimization problems over undirected networks. In contrast to alternatives, our algorithms can converge to the fixed point set of their synchronous counterparts using step-sizes that are independent of the delays. We establish convergence guarantees for convex and strongly convex problems under both partial and total asynchrony. We also show that the convergence speed of the two asynchronous methods adjusts to the actual level of asynchrony rather than being constrained by the worst-case. Numerical experiments demonstrate a strong practical performance of our asynchronous algorithms., Comment: 18 pages. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2303.18034

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 promise automation with better results and less programming, opening up new opportunities for text analysis in political science. In this study, we evaluate LLMs on three original coding tasks involving typical complexities encountered in political science settings: a non-English language, legal and political jargon, and complex labels based on abstract constructs. Along the paper, we propose a practical workflow to optimize the choice of the model and the prompt. We find that the best prompting strategy consists of providing the LLMs with a detailed codebook, as the one provided to human coders. In this setting, an LLM can be as good as or possibly better than a human annotator while being much faster, considerably cheaper, and much easier to scale to large amounts of text. We also provide a comparison of GPT and popular open-source LLMs, discussing the trade-offs in the model's choice. Our software allows LLMs to be easily used as annotators and is publicly available: https://github.com/lorelupo/pappa.

Large text corpora are the backbone of language models. However, we have a limited understanding of the content of these corpora, including general statistics, quality, social factors, and inclusion of evaluation data (contamination). In this work, we propose What's In My Big Data? (WIMBD), a platform and a set of sixteen analyses that allow us to reveal and compare the contents of large text corpora. WIMBD builds on two basic capabilities -- count and search -- at scale, which allows us to analyze more than 35 terabytes on a standard compute node. We apply WIMBD to ten different corpora used to train popular language models, including C4, The Pile, and RedPajama. Our analysis uncovers several surprising and previously undocumented findings about these corpora, including the high prevalence of duplicate, synthetic, and low-quality content, personally identifiable information, toxic language, and benchmark contamination. For instance, we find that about 50% of the documents in RedPajama and LAION-2B-en are duplicates. In addition, several datasets used for benchmarking models trained on such corpora are contaminated with respect to important benchmarks, including the Winograd Schema Challenge and parts of GLUE and SuperGLUE. We open-source WIMBD's code and artifacts to provide a standard set of evaluations for new text-based corpora and to encourage more analyses and transparency around them., Comment: Published at ICLR 2024 spotlight

There is a current increase in the development of "4D" Doppler-capable radar and lidar range sensors that produce 3D point clouds where all points also have information about the radial velocity relative to the sensor. 4D radars in particular are interesting for object perception and navigation in low-visibility conditions (dust, smoke) where lidars and cameras typically fail. With the advent of high-resolution Doppler-capable radars comes the possibility of estimating odometry from single point clouds, foregoing the need for scan registration which is error-prone in feature-sparse field environments. We compare several odometry estimation methods, from direct integration of Doppler/IMU data and Kalman filter sensor fusion to 3D scan-to-scan and scan-to-map registration, on three datasets with data from two recent 4D radars and two IMUs. Surprisingly, our results show that the odometry from Doppler and IMU data alone give similar or better results than 3D point cloud registration. In our experiments, the average position error can be as low as 0.3% over 1.8 and 4.5km trajectories. That allows accurate estimation of 6DOF ego-motion over long distances also in feature-sparse mine environments. These results are useful not least for applications of navigation with resource-constrained robot platforms in feature-sparse and low-visibility conditions such as mining, construction, and search & rescue operations., Comment: Preprint. Submitted to ICRA 2024. 7 pages, 11 figures

Many practically relevant robot grasping problems feature a target object for which all grasps are occluded, e.g., by the environment. Single-shot grasp planning invariably fails in such scenarios. Instead, it is necessary to first manipulate the object into a configuration that affords a grasp. We solve this problem by learning a sequence of actions that utilize the environment to change the object's pose. Concretely, we employ hierarchical reinforcement learning to combine a sequence of learned parameterized manipulation primitives. By learning the low-level manipulation policies, our approach can control the object's state through exploiting interactions between the object, the gripper, and the environment. Designing such a complex behavior analytically would be infeasible under uncontrolled conditions, as an analytic approach requires accurate physical modeling of the interaction and contact dynamics. In contrast, we learn a hierarchical policy model that operates directly on depth perception data, without the need for object detection, pose estimation, or manual design of controllers. We evaluate our approach on picking box-shaped objects of various weight, shape, and friction properties from a constrained table-top workspace. Our method transfers to a real robot and is able to successfully complete the object picking task in 98\% of experimental trials. Supplementary information and videos can be found at https://shihminyang.github.io/ED-PMP/., Comment: 2024 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA 2024)

We present a novel 3D odometry method that recovers the full motion of a vehicle only from a Doppler-capable range sensor. It leverages the radial velocities measured from the scene, estimating the sensor's velocity from a single scan. The vehicle's 3D motion, defined by its linear and angular velocities, is calculated taking into consideration its kinematic model which provides a constraint between the velocity measured at the sensor frame and the vehicle frame. Experiments carried out prove the viability of our single-sensor method compared to mounting an additional IMU. Our method provides the translation of the sensor, which cannot be reliably determined from an IMU, as well as its rotation. Its short-term accuracy and fast operation (~5ms) make it a proper candidate to supply the initialization to more complex localization algorithms or mapping pipelines. Not only does it reduce the error of the mapper, but it does so at a comparable level of accuracy as an IMU would. All without the need to mount and calibrate an extra sensor on the vehicle., Comment: This work has been submitted to the IEEE for possible publication

RadaRays allows for the accurate modeling and simulation of rotating FMCW radar sensors in complex environments, including the simulation of reflection, refraction, and scattering of radar waves. Our software is able to handle large numbers of objects and materials, making it suitable for use in a variety of mobile robotics applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of RadaRays through a series of experiments and show that it can more accurately reproduce the behavior of FMCW radar sensors in a variety of environments, compared to the ray casting-based lidar-like simulations that are commonly used in simulators for autonomous driving such as CARLA. Our experiments additionally serve as valuable reference point for researchers to evaluate their own radar simulations. By using RadaRays, developers can significantly reduce the time and cost associated with prototyping and testing FMCW radar-based algorithms. We also provide a Gazebo plugin that makes our work accessible to the mobile robotics community.

We introduce the Cambridge Law Corpus (CLC), a dataset for legal AI research. It consists of over 250 000 court cases from the UK. Most cases are from the 21st century, but the corpus includes cases as old as the 16th century. This paper presents the first release of the corpus, containing the raw text and meta-data. Together with the corpus, we provide annotations on case outcomes for 638 cases, done by legal experts. Using our annotated data, we have trained and evaluated case outcome extraction with GPT-3, GPT-4 and RoBERTa models to provide benchmarks. We include an extensive legal and ethical discussion to address the potentially sensitive nature of this material. As a consequence, the corpus will only be released for research purposes under certain restrictions.

Human motion prediction is important for mobile service robots and intelligent vehicles to operate safely and smoothly around people. The more accurate predictions are, particularly over extended periods of time, the better a system can, e.g., assess collision risks and plan ahead. In this paper, we propose to exploit maps of dynamics (MoDs, a class of general representations of place-dependent spatial motion patterns, learned from prior observations) for long-term human motion prediction (LHMP). We present a new MoD-informed human motion prediction approach, named CLiFF-LHMP, which is data efficient, explainable, and insensitive to errors from an upstream tracking system. Our approach uses CLiFF-map, a specific MoD trained with human motion data recorded in the same environment. We bias a constant velocity prediction with samples from the CLiFF-map to generate multi-modal trajectory predictions. In two public datasets we show that this algorithm outperforms the state of the art for predictions over very extended periods of time, achieving 45% more accurate prediction performance at 50s compared to the baseline., Comment: Accepted to the 2023 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS)

Data-driven modeling based on machine learning (ML) is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. Rapid progress has been made with impressive results for some applications. The uptake of ML methods could be a game-changer for the incremental progress in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) known as the 'quiet revolution' of weather forecasting. The computational cost of running a forecast with standard NWP systems greatly hinders the improvements that can be made from increasing model resolution and ensemble sizes. An emerging new generation of ML models, developed using high-quality reanalysis datasets like ERA5 for training, allow forecasts that require much lower computational costs and that are highly-competitive in terms of accuracy. Here, we compare for the first time ML-generated forecasts with standard NWP-based forecasts in an operational-like context, initialized from the same initial conditions. Focusing on deterministic forecasts, we apply common forecast verification tools to assess to what extent a data-driven forecast produced with one of the recently developed ML models (PanguWeather) matches the quality and attributes of a forecast from one of the leading global NWP systems (the ECMWF IFS). The results are very promising, with comparable skill for both global metrics and extreme events, when verified against both the operational analysis and synoptic observations. Increasing forecast smoothness and bias drift with forecast lead time are identified as current drawbacks of ML-based forecasts. A new NWP paradigm is emerging relying on inference from ML models and state-of-the-art analysis and reanalysis datasets for forecast initialization and model training.

We calculate the $L^2$-norm of the holomorphic sectional curvature of a K\"ahler metric by representation-theoretic means. This yields a new proof that the holomorphic sectional curvature determines the whole curvature tensor. We then investigate what the holomorphic sectional curvature of a Hermitian metric determines and calculate the $L^2$-norm of the holomorphic bisectional curvature., Comment: 9 pages, comments welcome

Robots are increasingly used in shared environments with humans, making effective communication a necessity for successful human-robot interaction. In our work, we study a crucial component: active communication of robot intent. Here, we present an anthropomorphic solution where a humanoid robot communicates the intent of its host robot acting as an "Anthropomorphic Robotic Mock Driver" (ARMoD). We evaluate this approach in two experiments in which participants work alongside a mobile robot on various tasks, while the ARMoD communicates a need for human attention, when required, or gives instructions to collaborate on a joint task. The experiments feature two interaction styles of the ARMoD: a verbal-only mode using only speech and a multimodal mode, additionally including robotic gaze and pointing gestures to support communication and register intent in space. Our results show that the multimodal interaction style, including head movements and eye gaze as well as pointing gestures, leads to more natural fixation behavior. Participants naturally identified and fixated longer on the areas relevant for intent communication, and reacted faster to instructions in collaborative tasks. Our research further indicates that the ARMoD intent communication improves engagement and social interaction with mobile robots in workplace settings., Comment: This paper has been accepted to the 32nd IEEE International Conference on Robot and Human Interactive Communication (RO-MAN), which will be held in Busan, South Korea on August 28-31, 2023. For more information, please visit: https://ro-man2023.org/main

A number of studies have investigated the large-scale drivers and upstream-precursors of extreme weather events, making it clear that the earliest warning signs of extreme events can be remote in both time and space from the impacted region. Integrating and leveraging our understanding of dynamical precursors provides a new perspective on ensemble forecasting for extreme events, focused on building story-lines of possible event evolution. This then acts as a tool for raising awareness of the conditions conducive to high-impact weather, and providing early warning of their possible development. However, operational applications of this developing knowledge-base is limited so far, perhaps for want of a clear framework for doing so. Here, we present such a framework, supported by open software tools, designed for identifying large-scale precursors of categorical weather events in an automated fashion, and for reducing them to scalar indices suitable for statistical prediction, forecast interpretation, and model validation. We demonstrate this framework by systematically analysing the precursor circulations of daily rainfall extremes across 18 regional- to national-scale European domains. We discuss the precursor rainfall dynamics for three disparate regions, and show our findings are consistent with, and extend, previous work. We provide an estimate of the predictive utility of these precursors across Europe based on logistic regression, and show that large-scale precursors can usefully predict heavy rainfall between two and six days ahead, depending on region and season. We further show how for more continental-scale applications the regionally-specific precursors can be synthesised into a minimal set of indices that drive heavy precipitation. We then provide comments and guidance for generalisation and application of our demonstrated approach to new variables, timescales and regions., Comment: 3 figure SI, 22 manuscript pages, 10 figures, submitted to QJRMS

We consider the blowup of a point of a compact K\"ahler manifold and a metric of the form $\mu^*h + t b$ on it, where $h$ is a K\"ahler metric on the original manifold and $b$ is Hermitian form that looks like the Fubini--Study metric near the exceptional divisor. We calculate the curvature tensor of this metric on the exceptional divisor and show that its holomorphic sectional curvature is negative in some directions for all small enough $t$, which torpedos a natural approach to showing that blowups of manifolds of positive holomorphic sectional curvature have positive curvature., Comment: 6 pages, comments welcome

Scientific progress in NLP rests on the reproducibility of researchers' claims. The *CL conferences created the NLP Reproducibility Checklist in 2020 to be completed by authors at submission to remind them of key information to include. We provide the first analysis of the Checklist by examining 10,405 anonymous responses to it. First, we find evidence of an increase in reporting of information on efficiency, validation performance, summary statistics, and hyperparameters after the Checklist's introduction. Further, we show acceptance rate grows for submissions with more Yes responses. We find that the 44% of submissions that gather new data are 5% less likely to be accepted than those that did not; the average reviewer-rated reproducibility of these submissions is also 2% lower relative to the rest. We find that only 46% of submissions claim to open-source their code, though submissions that do have 8% higher reproducibility score relative to those that do not, the most for any item. We discuss what can be inferred about the state of reproducibility in NLP, and provide a set of recommendations for future conferences, including: a) allowing submitting code and appendices one week after the deadline, and b) measuring dataset reproducibility by a checklist of data collection practices., Comment: To be published in ACL 2023 Findings

Human motion prediction is essential for the safe and smooth operation of mobile service robots and intelligent vehicles around people. Commonly used neural network-based approaches often require large amounts of complete trajectories to represent motion dynamics in complex semantically-rich spaces. This requirement may complicate deployment of physical systems in new environments, especially when the data is being collected online from onboard sensors. In this paper we explore a data-efficient alternative using maps of dynamics (MoD) to represent place-dependent multi-modal spatial motion patterns, learned from prior observations. Our approach can perform efficient human motion prediction in the long-term perspective of up to 60 seconds. We quantitatively evaluate its accuracy with limited amount of training data in comparison to an LSTM-based baseline, and qualitatively show that the predicted trajectories reflect the natural semantic properties of the environment, e.g. the locations of short- and long-term goals, navigation in narrow passages, around obstacles, etc., Comment: in 5th LHMP Workshop held in conjunction with 40th IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA), 29/05 - 02/06 2023, London

We generalize the Bernstein-Walsh-Siciak theorem on polynomial approximation in $\mathbb{C}^n$ to the case where the polynomial ring $\mathcal{P}(\mathbb{C}^n)$ is replaced by a subring $\mathcal{P}^S(\mathbb{C}^n)$ consisting of all polynomials with exponents restricted to sets $mS$, where $S$ is a compact convex subset of $\mathbb{R}_+^n$ with $0 \in S$ and $m = 0, 1, 2, 3, \dots$, and uniform estimates of error in the approximation are replaced by weighted uniform estimates with respect to an admissible weight function., Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure

We tackle the task of scene flow estimation from point clouds. Given a source and a target point cloud, the objective is to estimate a translation from each point in the source point cloud to the target, resulting in a 3D motion vector field. Previous dominant scene flow estimation methods require complicated coarse-to-fine or recurrent architectures as a multi-stage refinement. In contrast, we propose a significantly simpler single-scale one-shot global matching to address the problem. Our key finding is that reliable feature similarity between point pairs is essential and sufficient to estimate accurate scene flow. We thus propose to decompose the feature extraction step via a hybrid local-global-cross transformer architecture which is crucial to accurate and robust feature representations. Extensive experiments show that the proposed Global Matching Scene Flow (GMSF) sets a new state-of-the-art on multiple scene flow estimation benchmarks. On FlyingThings3D, with the presence of occlusion points, GMSF reduces the outlier percentage from the previous best performance of 27.4% to 5.6%. On KITTI Scene Flow, without any fine-tuning, our proposed method shows state-of-the-art performance. On the Waymo-Open dataset, the proposed method outperforms previous methods by a large margin. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhangYushan3/GMSF.

Current experiments investigating radiation reaction employ high energy electron beams together with tightly focused laser pulses in order to reach the quantum regime, as expressed through the quantum nonlinearity parameter $\chi$. Such experiments are often complicated by the large number of latent variables, including the precise structure of the electron bunch. Here we examine a correlation between the electron spatial and energy distributions, called an energy chirp, investigate its significance to the laser-electron beam interaction and show that the resulting effect cannot be trivially ignored when analysing current experiments. In particular, we show that the energy chirp has a large effect on the second moment of the electron energy, but a lesser impact on the first electron energy moment or the photon critical energy. These results show the importance of improved characterisation and control over electron bunch parameters on a shot-to-shot basis in such experiments., Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures

The aim of this book is to show that the use of f-analytic families of finite type cycles (cycles having finitely many irreducible components, but not compact in general) in a given complex space may be useful in complex geometry, despite the fact that the corresponding functor is not, in general, representable, in contrast to the compact case. This study leads to the notion of strongly quasi-proper map which is characterized by the existence of a geometric f-flattening which is a generalization of the Geometric Flattening Theorem for proper holomorphic maps. As applications we prove an existence theorem for meromorphic quotients of reduced complex spaces and a generalization of the classic Stein factorization.