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Sample average approximation (SAA) is a technique for obtaining approximate solutions to stochastic programs that uses the average from a random sample to approximate the expected value that is being optimized. Since the outcome from solving an SAA is random, statistical estimates on the optimal value of the true problem can be obtained by solving multiple SAA replications with independent samples. We study techniques to accelerate the solution of this set of SAA replications, when solving them sequentially via Benders decomposition. We investigate how to exploit similarities in the problem structure, as the replications just differ in the realizations of the random samples. Our extensive computational experiments provide empirical evidence that our techniques for using information from solving previous replications can significantly reduce the solution time of later replications., Comment: 36 pages

Inverse weighting with an estimated propensity score is widely used by estimation methods in causal inference to adjust for confounding bias. However, directly inverting propensity score estimates can lead to instability, bias, and excessive variability due to large inverse weights, especially when treatment overlap is limited. In this work, we propose a post-hoc calibration algorithm for inverse propensity weights that generates well-calibrated, stabilized weights from user-supplied, cross-fitted propensity score estimates. Our approach employs a variant of isotonic regression with a loss function specifically tailored to the inverse propensity weights. Through theoretical analysis and empirical studies, we demonstrate that isotonic calibration improves the performance of doubly robust estimators of the average treatment effect.

In causal inference, many estimands of interest can be expressed as a linear functional of the outcome regression function; this includes, for example, average causal effects of static, dynamic and stochastic interventions. For learning such estimands, in this work, we propose novel debiased machine learning estimators that are doubly robust asymptotically linear, thus providing not only doubly robust consistency but also facilitating doubly robust inference (e.g., confidence intervals and hypothesis tests). To do so, we first establish a key link between calibration, a machine learning technique typically used in prediction and classification tasks, and the conditions needed to achieve doubly robust asymptotic linearity. We then introduce calibrated debiased machine learning (C-DML), a unified framework for doubly robust inference, and propose a specific C-DML estimator that integrates cross-fitting, isotonic calibration, and debiased machine learning estimation. A C-DML estimator maintains asymptotic linearity when either the outcome regression or the Riesz representer of the linear functional is estimated sufficiently well, allowing the other to be estimated at arbitrarily slow rates or even inconsistently. We propose a simple bootstrap-assisted approach for constructing doubly robust confidence intervals. Our theoretical and empirical results support the use of C-DML to mitigate bias arising from the inconsistent or slow estimation of nuisance functions.

We derive two types of dispersion relations for the hadronic vector-vector-axial-vector (VVA) correlator: one in generic three-point kinematics with fixed photon virtualities, the second in the kinematic limit of one soft photon. The VVA correlator enters in the electroweak contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment and it also emerges as the leading term in the operator-product expansion for hadronic light-by-light scattering in the limit of two large photon momenta. Previously, this correlator was only described in terms of hadronic models. Our new dispersive treatments are in analogy to the established and the newly proposed dispersive approaches to hadronic light-by-light. The VVA correlator allows us to investigate the relation between the two types of dispersion relations in a simpler example and to elucidate the reshuffling of different hadronic contributions in this comparison. As a byproduct, we reduce the theoretical uncertainties on the first-family VVA contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment by combining the dispersive representation with both asymptotic and low-energy constraints., Comment: 74 pages, 25 figures

Safe and effective preventive vaccines have the potential to help stem the HIV epidemic. The efficacy of such vaccines is typically measured in randomized, double-blind phase IIb/III trials and described as a reduction in newly acquired HIV infections. However, such trials are often expensive, time-consuming, and/or logistically challenging. These challenges lead to a great interest in immune responses induced by vaccination, and in identifying which immune responses predict vaccine efficacy. These responses are termed vaccine correlates of protection. Studies of vaccine-induced immunogenicity vary in size and design, ranging from small, early phase trials, to case-control studies nested in a broader late-phase randomized trial. Moreover, trials can be conducted in geographically diverse study populations across the world. Such diversity presents a challenge for objectively comparing vaccine-induced immunogenicity. To address these practical challenges, we propose a framework that is capable of identifying appropriate causal estimands and estimators, which can be used to provide standardized comparisons of vaccine-induced immunogenicity across trials. We evaluate the performance of the proposed estimands via extensive simulation studies. Our estimators are well-behaved and enjoy robustness properties. The proposed technique is applied to compare vaccine immunogenicity using data from three recent HIV vaccine trials.

Real-time systems are intrinsic components of many pivotal applications, such as self-driving vehicles, aerospace and defense systems. The trend in these applications is to incorporate multiple tasks onto fewer, more powerful hardware platforms, e.g., multi-core systems, mainly for reducing cost and power consumption. Many real-time tasks, like control tasks, can tolerate occasional deadline misses due to robust algorithms. These tasks can be modeled using the weakly-hard model. Literature shows that leveraging the weakly-hard model can relax the over-provisioning associated with designed real-time systems. However, a wide-range of the research focuses on single-core platforms. Therefore, we strive to extend the state-of-the-art of scheduling weakly-hard real-time tasks to multi-core platforms. We present a global job-level fixed priority scheduling algorithm together with its schedulability analysis. The scheduling algorithm leverages the tolerable continuous deadline misses to assigning priorities to jobs. The proposed analysis extends the Response Time Analysis (RTA) for global scheduling to test the schedulability of tasks. Hence, our analysis scales with the number of tasks and number of cores because, unlike literature, it depends neither on Integer Linear Programming nor reachability trees. Schedulability analyses show that the schedulability ratio is improved by 40% comparing to the global Rate Monotonic (RM) scheduling and up to 60% more than the global EDF scheduling, which are the state-of-the-art schedulers on the RTEMS real-time operating system. Our evaluation on industrial embedded multi-core platform running RTEMS shows that the scheduling overhead of our proposal does not exceed 60 Nanosecond.

When assessing the causal effect of a binary exposure using observational data, confounder imbalance across exposure arms must be addressed. Matching methods, including propensity score-based matching, can be used to deconfound the causal relationship of interest. They have been particularly popular in practice, at least in part due to their simplicity and interpretability. However, these methods can suffer from low statistical efficiency compared to many competing methods. In this work, we propose a novel matching-based estimator of the average treatment effect based on a suitably-augmented propensity score model. Our procedure can be shown to have greater statistical efficiency than traditional matching estimators whenever prognostic variables are available, and in some cases, can nearly reach the nonparametric efficiency bound. In addition to a theoretical study, we provide numerical results to illustrate our findings. Finally, we use our novel procedure to estimate the effect of circumcision on risk of HIV-1 infection using vaccine efficacy trial data.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has seen significant success across various domains, but its adoption is often limited by the black-box nature of neural network policies, making them difficult to interpret. In contrast, symbolic policies allow representing decision-making strategies in a compact and interpretable way. However, learning symbolic policies directly within on-policy methods remains challenging. In this paper, we introduce SYMPOL, a novel method for SYMbolic tree-based on-POLicy RL. SYMPOL employs a tree-based model integrated with a policy gradient method, enabling the agent to learn and adapt its actions while maintaining a high level of interpretability. We evaluate SYMPOL on a set of benchmark RL tasks, demonstrating its superiority over alternative tree-based RL approaches in terms of performance and interpretability. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method, that allows a gradient-based end-to-end learning of interpretable, axis-aligned decision trees within existing on-policy RL algorithms. Therefore, SYMPOL can become the foundation for a new class of interpretable RL based on decision trees. Our implementation is available under: https://github.com/s-marton/SYMPOL

We consider a two-stage stochastic decision problem where the decision-maker has the opportunity to obtain information about the distribution of the random variables $\xi$ that appear in the problem through a set of discrete actions that we refer to as \emph{probing}. Probing components of a random vector $\eta$ that is jointly-distributed with $\xi$ allows the decision-maker to learn about the conditional distribution of $\xi$ given the observed components of $\eta$. We propose a three-stage optimization model for this problem, where in the first stage some components of $\eta$ are chosen to be observed, and decisions in subsequent stages must be consistent with the obtained information. In the case that $\eta$ and $\xi$ have finite support, Goel and Grossmann gave a mixed-integer programming (MIP) formulation of this problem whose size is proportional to the square of cardinality of the sample space of the random variables. We propose to solve the model using bounds obtained from an information-based relaxation, combined with a branching scheme that enforces the consistency of decisions with observed information. The branch-and-bound approach can naturally be combined with sampling in order to estimate both lower and upper bounds on the optimal solution value and does not require $\eta$ or $\xi$ to have finite support. We conduct a computational study of our method on instances of a stochastic facility location and sizing problem with the option to probe customers to learn about their demands before building facilities. We find that on instances with finite support, our approach scales significantly better than the MIP formulation and also demonstrate that our method can compute statistical bounds on instances with continuous distributions that improve upon the perfect information bounds.

Tabular data is prevalent in real-world machine learning applications, and new models for supervised learning of tabular data are frequently proposed. Comparative studies assessing the performance of models typically consist of model-centric evaluation setups with overly standardized data preprocessing. This paper demonstrates that such model-centric evaluations are biased, as real-world modeling pipelines often require dataset-specific preprocessing and feature engineering. Therefore, we propose a data-centric evaluation framework. We select 10 relevant datasets from Kaggle competitions and implement expert-level preprocessing pipelines for each dataset. We conduct experiments with different preprocessing pipelines and hyperparameter optimization (HPO) regimes to quantify the impact of model selection, HPO, feature engineering, and test-time adaptation. Our main findings are: 1. After dataset-specific feature engineering, model rankings change considerably, performance differences decrease, and the importance of model selection reduces. 2. Recent models, despite their measurable progress, still significantly benefit from manual feature engineering. This holds true for both tree-based models and neural networks. 3. While tabular data is typically considered static, samples are often collected over time, and adapting to distribution shifts can be important even in supposedly static data. These insights suggest that research efforts should be directed toward a data-centric perspective, acknowledging that tabular data requires feature engineering and often exhibits temporal characteristics. Our framework is available under: https://github.com/atschalz/dc_tabeval.

Neural networks often assume independence among input data samples, disregarding correlations arising from inherent clustering patterns in real-world datasets (e.g., due to different sites or repeated measurements). Recently, mixed effects neural networks (MENNs) which separate cluster-specific 'random effects' from cluster-invariant 'fixed effects' have been proposed to improve generalization and interpretability for clustered data. However, existing methods only allow for approximate quantification of cluster effects and are limited to regression and binary targets with only one clustering feature. We present MC-GMENN, a novel approach employing Monte Carlo methods to train Generalized Mixed Effects Neural Networks. We empirically demonstrate that MC-GMENN outperforms existing mixed effects deep learning models in terms of generalization performance, time complexity, and quantification of inter-cluster variance. Additionally, MC-GMENN is applicable to a wide range of datasets, including multi-class classification tasks with multiple high-cardinality categorical features. For these datasets, we show that MC-GMENN outperforms conventional encoding and embedding methods, simultaneously offering a principled methodology for interpreting the effects of clustering patterns.

Power grid expansion planning requires making large investment decisions in the present that will impact the future cost and reliability of a system exposed to wide-ranging uncertainties. Extreme temperatures can pose significant challenges to providing power by increasing demand and decreasing supply and have contributed to recent major power outages. We propose to address a modeling challenge of such high-impact, low-frequency events with a bi-objective stochastic integer optimization model that finds solutions with different trade-offs between efficiency in normal conditions and risk to extreme events. We propose a conditional sampling approach paired with a risk measure to address the inherent challenge in approximating the risk of low-frequency events within a sampling based approach. We present a model for spatially correlated, county-specific temperatures and a method to generate both unconditional and conditionally extreme temperature samples from this model efficiently. These models are investigated within an extensive case study with realistic data that demonstrates the effectiveness of the bi-objective approach and the conditional sampling technique. We find that spatial correlations in the temperature samples are essential to finding good solutions and that modeling generator temperature dependence is an important consideration for finding efficient, low-risk solutions., Comment: 43 pages, 10 figures

We introduce an algorithm that simplifies the construction of efficient estimators, making them accessible to a broader audience. 'Dimple' takes as input computer code representing a parameter of interest and outputs an efficient estimator. Unlike standard approaches, it does not require users to derive a functional derivative known as the efficient influence function. Dimple avoids this task by applying automatic differentiation to the statistical functional of interest. Doing so requires expressing this functional as a composition of primitives satisfying a novel differentiability condition. Dimple also uses this composition to determine the nuisances it must estimate. In software, primitives can be implemented independently of one another and reused across different estimation problems. We provide a proof-of-concept Python implementation and showcase through examples how it allows users to go from parameter specification to efficient estimation with just a few lines of code.

The Chabauty--Kim method and its refined variant by Betts and Dogra aim to cut out the $S$-integral points $X(\mathbb{Z}_S)$ on a curve inside the $p$-adic points $X(\mathbb{Z}_p)$ by producing enough Coleman functions vanishing on them. We derive new functions in the case of the thrice-punctured line when $S$ contains two primes. We describe an algorithm for computing refined Chabauty--Kim loci and verify Kim's conjecture over $\mathbb{Z}[1/6]$ for all choices of auxiliary prime $p < 10{,}000$., Comment: 24 pages; minor revision; comments welcome

We introduce efficient plug-in (EP) learning, a novel framework for the estimation of heterogeneous causal contrasts, such as the conditional average treatment effect and conditional relative risk. The EP-learning framework enjoys the same oracle-efficiency as Neyman-orthogonal learning strategies, such as DR-learning and R-learning, while addressing some of their primary drawbacks, including that (i) their practical applicability can be hindered by loss function non-convexity; and (ii) they may suffer from poor performance and instability due to inverse probability weighting and pseudo-outcomes that violate bounds. To avoid these drawbacks, EP-learner constructs an efficient plug-in estimator of the population risk function for the causal contrast, thereby inheriting the stability and robustness properties of plug-in estimation strategies like T-learning. Under reasonable conditions, EP-learners based on empirical risk minimization are oracle-efficient, exhibiting asymptotic equivalence to the minimizer of an oracle-efficient one-step debiased estimator of the population risk function. In simulation experiments, we illustrate that EP-learners of the conditional average treatment effect and conditional relative risk outperform state-of-the-art competitors, including T-learner, R-learner, and DR-learner. Open-source implementations of the proposed methods are available in our R package hte3.

In policy learning, the goal is typically to optimize a primary performance metric, but other subsidiary metrics often also warrant attention. This paper presents two strategies for evaluating these subsidiary metrics under a policy that is optimal for the primary one. The first relies on a novel margin condition that facilitates Wald-type inference. Under this and other regularity conditions, we show that the one-step corrected estimator is efficient. Despite the utility of this margin condition, it places strong restrictions on how the subsidiary metric behaves for nearly optimal policies, which may not hold in practice. We therefore introduce alternative, two-stage strategies that do not require a margin condition. The first stage constructs a set of candidate policies and the second builds a uniform confidence interval over this set. We provide numerical simulations to evaluate the performance of these methods in different scenarios.

Despite the success of deep learning for text and image data, tree-based ensemble models are still state-of-the-art for machine learning with heterogeneous tabular data. However, there is a significant need for tabular-specific gradient-based methods due to their high flexibility. In this paper, we propose $\text{GRANDE}$, $\text{GRA}$die$\text{N}$t-Based $\text{D}$ecision Tree $\text{E}$nsembles, a novel approach for learning hard, axis-aligned decision tree ensembles using end-to-end gradient descent. GRANDE is based on a dense representation of tree ensembles, which affords to use backpropagation with a straight-through operator to jointly optimize all model parameters. Our method combines axis-aligned splits, which is a useful inductive bias for tabular data, with the flexibility of gradient-based optimization. Furthermore, we introduce an advanced instance-wise weighting that facilitates learning representations for both, simple and complex relations, within a single model. We conducted an extensive evaluation on a predefined benchmark with 19 classification datasets and demonstrate that our method outperforms existing gradient-boosting and deep learning frameworks on most datasets. The method is available under: https://github.com/s-marton/GRANDE

In the Subspace Clustering with Missing Data (SCMD) problem, we are given a collection of n partially observed d-dimensional vectors. The data points are assumed to be concentrated near a union of low-dimensional subspaces. The goal of SCMD is to cluster the vectors according to their subspace membership and recover the underlying basis, which can then be used to infer their missing entries. State-of-the-art algorithms for SCMD can fail on instances with a high proportion of missing data, full-rank data, or if the underlying subspaces are similar to each other. We propose a novel integer programming approach for SCMD. The approach is based on dynamically determining a set of candidate subspaces and optimally assigning points to selected subspaces. The problem structure is identical to the classical facility-location problem, with subspaces playing the role of facilities and data points that of customers. We propose a column-generation approach for identifying candidate subspaces combined with a Benders decomposition approach for solving the linear programming relaxation of the formulation. An empirical study demonstrates that the proposed approach can achieve better clustering accuracy than state-of-the-art methods when the data is high-rank, the percentage of missing data is high, or the subspaces are similar., Comment: 31 pages, 8 tables,8 figures

Rule learning approaches for knowledge graph completion are efficient, interpretable and competitive to purely neural models. The rule aggregation problem is concerned with finding one plausibility score for a candidate fact which was simultaneously predicted by multiple rules. Although the problem is ubiquitous, as data-driven rule learning can result in noisy and large rulesets, it is underrepresented in the literature and its theoretical foundations have not been studied before in this context. In this work, we demonstrate that existing aggregation approaches can be expressed as marginal inference operations over the predicting rules. In particular, we show that the common Max-aggregation strategy, which scores candidates based on the rule with the highest confidence, has a probabilistic interpretation. Finally, we propose an efficient and overlooked baseline which combines the previous strategies and is competitive to computationally more expensive approaches., Comment: KLR Workshop@ICML2023

We introduce a new data fusion method that utilizes multiple data sources to estimate a smooth, finite-dimensional parameter. Most existing methods only make use of fully aligned data sources that share common conditional distributions of one or more variables of interest. However, in many settings, the scarcity of fully aligned sources can make existing methods require unduly large sample sizes to be useful. Our approach enables the incorporation of weakly aligned data sources that are not perfectly aligned, provided their degree of misalignment can be characterized by a prespecified density ratio model. We describe gains in efficiency and provide a general means to construct estimators achieving these gains. We illustrate our results by fusing data from two harmonized HIV monoclonal antibody prevention efficacy trials to study how a neutralizing antibody biomarker associates with HIV genotype., Comment: 33 pages including appendices, 3 figures

The accurate assessment of fish stocks is crucial for sustainable fisheries management. However, existing statistical stock assessment models can have low forecast performance of relevant stock parameters like recruitment or spawning stock biomass, especially in ecosystems that are changing due to global warming and other anthropogenic stressors. In this paper, we investigate the use of machine learning models to improve the estimation and forecast of such stock parameters. We propose a hybrid model that combines classical statistical stock assessment models with supervised ML, specifically gradient boosted trees. Our hybrid model leverages the initial estimate provided by the classical model and uses the ML model to make a post-hoc correction to improve accuracy. We experiment with five different stocks and find that the forecast accuracy of recruitment and spawning stock biomass improves considerably in most cases., Comment: Accepted at Fragile Earth Workshop 2023

Debiased machine learning estimators for nonparametric inference of smooth functionals of the data-generating distribution can suffer from excessive variability and instability. For this reason, practitioners may resort to simpler models based on parametric or semiparametric assumptions. However, such simplifying assumptions may fail to hold, and estimates may then be biased due to model misspecification. To address this problem, we propose Adaptive Debiased Machine Learning (ADML), a nonparametric framework that combines data-driven model selection and debiased machine learning techniques to construct asymptotically linear, adaptive, and superefficient estimators for pathwise differentiable functionals. By learning model structure directly from data, ADML avoids the bias introduced by model misspecification and remains free from the restrictions of parametric and semiparametric models. While they may exhibit irregular behavior for the target parameter in a nonparametric statistical model, we demonstrate that ADML estimators provides regular and locally uniformly valid inference for a projection-based oracle parameter. Importantly, this oracle parameter agrees with the original target parameter for distributions within an unknown but correctly specified oracle statistical submodel that is learned from the data. This finding implies that there is no penalty, in a local asymptotic sense, for conducting data-driven model selection compared to having prior knowledge of the oracle submodel and oracle parameter. To demonstrate the practical applicability of our theory, we provide a broad class of ADML estimators for estimating the average treatment effect in adaptive partially linear regression models., Comment: 32 pages + appendix

Let $X$ be a smooth projective curve of genus $\geq2$ over a number field. A natural variant of Grothendieck's Section Conjecture postulates that every section of the fundamental exact sequence for $X$ which everywhere locally comes from a point of $X$ in fact globally comes from a point of $X$. We show that $X/\mathbb{Q}$ satisfies this version of the Section Conjecture if it satisfies Kim's Conjecture for almost all choices of auxiliary prime $p$, and give the appropriate generalisation to $S$-integral points on hyperbolic curves. This gives a new "computational" strategy for proving instances of this variant of the Section Conjecture, which we carry out for the thrice-punctured line over $\mathbb{Z}[1/2]$., Comment: 53 pages

We report on the design and the construction of a sounding rocket payload capable of performing atom interferometry with Bose-Einstein condensates of $^{41}$K and $^{87}$Rb. The apparatus is designed to be launched in two consecutive missions with a VSB-30 sounding rocket and is qualified to withstand the expected vibrational loads of 1.8 g root-mean-square in a frequency range between 20 - 2000 Hz and the expected static loads during ascent and re-entry of 25 g. We present a modular design of the scientific payload comprising a physics package, a laser system, an electronics system and a battery module. A dedicated on-board software provides a largely automated process of predefined experiments. To operate the payload safely in laboratory and flight mode, a thermal control system and ground support equipment has been implemented and will be presented. The payload presented here represents a cornerstone for future applications of matter wave interferometry with ultracold atoms on satellites.

Decision Trees (DTs) are commonly used for many machine learning tasks due to their high degree of interpretability. However, learning a DT from data is a difficult optimization problem, as it is non-convex and non-differentiable. Therefore, common approaches learn DTs using a greedy growth algorithm that minimizes the impurity locally at each internal node. Unfortunately, this greedy procedure can lead to inaccurate trees. In this paper, we present a novel approach for learning hard, axis-aligned DTs with gradient descent. The proposed method uses backpropagation with a straight-through operator on a dense DT representation, to jointly optimize all tree parameters. Our approach outperforms existing methods on binary classification benchmarks and achieves competitive results for multi-class tasks. The method is available under: https://github.com/s-marton/GradTree

We present estimators for smooth Hilbert-valued parameters, where smoothness is characterized by a pathwise differentiability condition. When the parameter space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we provide a means to obtain efficient, root-n rate estimators and corresponding confidence sets. These estimators correspond to generalizations of cross-fitted one-step estimators based on Hilbert-valued efficient influence functions. We give theoretical guarantees even when arbitrary estimators of nuisance functions are used, including those based on machine learning techniques. We show that these results naturally extend to Hilbert spaces that lack a reproducing kernel, as long as the parameter has an efficient influence function. However, we also uncover the unfortunate fact that, when there is no reproducing kernel, many interesting parameters fail to have an efficient influence function, even though they are pathwise differentiable. To handle these cases, we propose a regularized one-step estimator and associated confidence sets. We also show that pathwise differentiability, which is a central requirement of our approach, holds in many cases. Specifically, we provide multiple examples of pathwise differentiable parameters and develop corresponding estimators and confidence sets. Among these examples, four are particularly relevant to ongoing research by the causal inference community: the counterfactual density function, dose-response function, conditional average treatment effect function, and counterfactual kernel mean embedding.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance., Comment: Accepted to ICML2023

We present a new strategy for the dispersive evaluation of the hadronic light-by-light contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon $a_\mu$. The new approach directly applies in the kinematic limit relevant for $a_\mu$: one of the photons is treated as an external electromagnetic field with vanishing momentum, so that the kinematics corresponds to a triangle. We derive expressions for the relevant single-particle intermediate states, as well as the tensor decompositions of the two-pion sub-processes that appear in addition to those needed in the established dispersive approach. The existing approach is based on a set of dispersion relations for the hadronic light-by-light tensor in four-point kinematics. At present it is not known how to consistently include in this framework resonant intermediate states of spin 2 or larger, due to the appearance of kinematic singularities that can be traced back to the redundancy of the tensor decomposition. We show that our new approach circumvents this problem and enables dispersion relations in the limit of triangle kinematics that are manifestly free from kinematic singularities, paving the way towards a data-driven evaluation of all relevant exclusive hadronic intermediate states., Comment: 38 pages, 4 figures, 1 table; extended discussion of crossing symmetry, version published in JHEP

We give sufficient conditions for finiteness of linear and quadratic refined Chabauty-Kim loci of affine hyperbolic curves. We achieve this by constructing depth $\leq 2$ quotients of the fundamental group, following a construction of Balakrishnan-Dogra in the projective case. We also apply Betts' machinery of weight filtrations to give unconditional explicit upper bounds on the number of S-integral points when our conditions are satisfied., Comment: 20 pages; comments welcome

Goal recognition is an important problem in many application domains (e.g., pervasive computing, intrusion detection, computer games, etc.). In many application scenarios it is important that goal recognition algorithms can recognize goals of an observed agent as fast as possible and with minimal domain knowledge. Hence, in this paper, we propose a hybrid method for online goal recognition that combines a symbolic planning landmark based approach and a data-driven goal recognition approach and evaluate it in a real-world cooking scenario. The empirical results show that the proposed method is not only significantly more efficient in terms of computation time than the state-of-the-art but also improves goal recognition performance. Furthermore, we show that the utilized planning landmark based approach, which was so far only evaluated on artificial benchmark domains, achieves also good recognition performance when applied to a real-world cooking scenario., Comment: 9 pages. Presented at SPARK 2022 (https://icaps22.icaps-conference.org/workshops/SPARK/)

An important feature of pervasive, intelligent assistance systems is the ability to dynamically adapt to the current needs of their users. Hence, it is critical for such systems to be able to recognize those goals and needs based on observations of the user's actions and state of the environment. In this work, we investigate the application of two state-of-the-art, planning-based plan recognition approaches in a real-world setting. So far, these approaches were only evaluated in artificial settings in combination with agents that act perfectly rational. We show that such approaches have difficulties when used to recognize the goals of human subjects, because human behaviour is typically not perfectly rational. To overcome this issue, we propose an extension to the existing approaches through a classification-based method trained on observed behaviour data. We empirically show that the proposed extension not only outperforms the purely planning-based- and purely data-driven goal recognition methods but is also able to recognize the correct goal more reliably, especially when only a small number of observations were seen. This substantially improves the usefulness of hybrid goal recognition approaches for intelligent assistance systems, as recognizing a goal early opens much more possibilities for supportive reactions of the system.

We consider a multi-stage stochastic lot-sizing problem with service level constraints and supplier-driven product substitution. A firm has multiple products and it has the option to meet demand from substitutable products at a cost. Considering the uncertainty in future demands, the firm wishes to make ordering decisions in every period such that the probability that all demands can be met in the next period meets or exceeds a minimum service level. We propose a rolling-horizon policy in which a two-stage joint chance-constrained stochastic program is solved to make decisions in each time period. We demonstrate how to effectively solve this formulation. In addition, we propose two policies based on deterministic approximations. We demonstrate that the proposed chance-constraint policy can achieve the service levels more reliably and at a lower cost. We also explore the value of product substitution in this model, demonstrating that the substitution option allows achieving service levels while reducing costs by 7% to 25% in our experiments, and that the majority of the benefit can be obtained with limited levels of substitution allowed.

Individualizing treatment assignment can improve outcomes for diseases with patient-to-patient variability in comparative treatment effects. When a clinical trial demonstrates that some patients improve on treatment while others do not, it is tempting to assume that treatment effect heterogeneity exists. However, if variability in response is mainly driven by factors other than treatment, investigating the extent to which covariate data can predict differential treatment response is a potential waste of resources. Motivated by recent meta-analyses assessing the potential of individualizing treatment for major depressive disorder using only summary statistics, we provide a method that uses summary statistics widely available in published clinical trial results to bound the benefit of optimally assigning treatment to each patient. We also offer alternate bounds for settings in which trial results are stratified by another covariate. We demonstrate our approach using summary statistics from a depression treatment trial. Our methods are implemented in the rct2otrbounds R package, which is available at https://github.com/ngalanter/rct2otrbounds ., Comment: 31 pages, 1 figure

We access the possibility of using the conventional RF accelerator as an injector for the plasma driven wakefield accelerator. Conventional accelerators deliver high quality beams with low emittance and low energy spread. Once injected into the plasma wake, the emittance may be preserved upon proper beam matching while the energy spread may not due to long beam duration delivered by the conventional accelerators. Parameters of the overall accelerator system and the free electron laser based on such an accelerator are estimated., Comment: Internal report from Los Alamos National Laboratory. LA-UR-22-30406

Monitoring the money supply is an important prerequisite for conducting sound monetary policy, yet monetary indicators are conventionally estimated in aggregate. This paper proposes a new methodology that is able to leverage micro-level transaction data from real-world payment systems. We apply a novel computational technique to measure the durations for which money is held in individual accounts, and compute the transfer velocity of money from its inverse. Our new definition reduces to existing definitions under conventional assumptions. However, inverse estimation remains suitable for payment systems where the total balance fluctuates and spending patterns change in time. Our method is applied to study Sarafu, a small digital community currency in Kenya, where transaction data is available from 25 January 2020 to 15 June 2021. We find that the transfer velocity of Sarafu was higher than it would seem, in aggregate, because not all units of Sarafu remained in active circulation. Moreover, inverse estimation reveals strong heterogineities and enables comparisons across subgroups of spenders. Some units of Sarafu were held for minutes, others for months, and spending patterns differed across communities using Sarafu. The rate of circulation and the effective balance of Sarafu changed substantially over time, as these communities experienced economic disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic and seasonal food insecurity. These findings contribute to a growing body of literature documenting the heterogeneous patterns underlying headline macroeconomic indicators and their relevance for policy. Inverse estimation may be especially useful in studying the response of spenders to targeted monetary operations.

We study optimization for data-driven decision-making when we have observations of the uncertain parameters within the optimization model together with concurrent observations of covariates. Given a new covariate observation, the goal is to choose a decision that minimizes the expected cost conditioned on this observation. We investigate three data-driven frameworks that integrate a machine learning prediction model within a stochastic programming sample average approximation (SAA) for approximating the solution to this problem. Two of the SAA frameworks are new and use out-of-sample residuals of leave-one-out prediction models for scenario generation. The frameworks we investigate are flexible and accommodate parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric regression techniques. We derive conditions on the data generation process, the prediction model, and the stochastic program under which solutions of these data-driven SAAs are consistent and asymptotically optimal, and also derive convergence rates and finite sample guarantees. Computational experiments validate our theoretical results, demonstrate the potential advantages of our data-driven formulations over existing approaches (even when the prediction model is misspecified), and illustrate the benefits of our new data-driven formulations in the limited data regime., Comment: An earlier version of this article was available on Optimization Online on July 24, 2020. This version also incorporates analysis from our unpublished technical report arXiv preprint arXiv:2101.03139

In an electron wakefield accelerator, an intense laser pulse or charged particle beam excites plasma waves. Under proper conditions, electrons from the background plasma are trapped in the plasma wave and accelerated to ultra-relativistic velocities. We present recent results from a proof-of-principle wakefield acceleration experiment that reveal a unique synergy between a laser-driven and particle-driven accelerator: a high-charge laser-wakefield accelerated electron bunch can drive its own wakefield while simultaneously drawing energy from the laser pulse via direct laser acceleration. This process continues to accelerate electrons beyond the usual decelerating phase of the wakefield, thus reaching much higher energies. We find that the 10-centimeter-long nanoparticle-assisted wakefield accelerator can generate 340 pC, 10.4+-0.6 GeV electron bunches with 3.4 GeV RMS convolved energy spread and 0.9 mrad RMS divergence. It can also produce bunches with lower energy, a few percent energy spread, and a higher charge. This synergistic mechanism and the simplicity of the experimental setup represent a step closer to compact tabletop particle accelerators suitable for applications requiring high charge at high energies, such as free electron lasers or radiation sources producing muon beams.

The automatic, sensor-based assessment of challenging behavior of persons with dementia is an important task to support the selection of interventions. However, predicting behaviors like apathy and agitation is challenging due to the large inter- and intra-patient variability. Goal of this paper is to improve the recognition performance by making use of the observation that patients tend to show specific behaviors at certain times of the day or week. We propose to identify such segments of similar behavior via clustering the distributions of annotations of the time segments. All time segments within a cluster then consist of similar behaviors and thus indicate a behavioral predisposition (BPD). We utilize BPDs by training a classifier for each BPD. Empirically, we demonstrate that when the BPD per time segment is known, activity recognition performance can be substantially improved., Comment: Submitted to iWOAR 2022 - 7th international Workshop on Sensor-Based Activity Recognition and Artificial Intelligence

Outlier explanation is the task of identifying a set of features that distinguish a sample from normal data, which is important for downstream (human) decision-making. Existing methods are based on beam search in the space of feature subsets. They quickly becomes computationally expensive, as they require to run an outlier detection algorithm from scratch for each feature subset. To alleviate this problem, we propose a novel outlier explanation algorithm based on Sum-Product Networks (SPNs), a class of probabilistic circuits. Our approach leverages the tractability of marginal inference in SPNs to compute outlier scores in feature subsets. By using SPNs, it becomes feasible to perform backwards elimination instead of the usual forward beam search, which is less susceptible to missing relevant features in an explanation, especially when the number of features is large. We empirically show that our approach achieves state-of-the-art results for outlier explanation, outperforming recent search-based as well as deep learning-based explanation methods

We consider generating explanations for neural networks in cases where the network's training data is not accessible, for instance due to privacy or safety issues. Recently, $\mathcal{I}$-Nets have been proposed as a sample-free approach to post-hoc, global model interpretability that does not require access to training data. They formulate interpretation as a machine learning task that maps network representations (parameters) to a representation of an interpretable function. In this paper, we extend the $\mathcal{I}$-Net framework to the cases of standard and soft decision trees as surrogate models. We propose a suitable decision tree representation and design of the corresponding $\mathcal{I}$-Net output layers. Furthermore, we make $\mathcal{I}$-Nets applicable to real-world tasks by considering more realistic distributions when generating the $\mathcal{I}$-Net's training data. We empirically evaluate our approach against traditional global, post-hoc interpretability approaches and show that it achieves superior results when the training data is not accessible.

We discuss the prospects for improving the precision on the hadronic corrections to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, and the plans of the Muon $g-2$ Theory Initiative to update the Standard Model prediction., Comment: Contribution to the US Community Study on the Future of Particle Physics (Snowmass 2021)

As a common step in refining their scientific inquiry, investigators are often interested in performing some screening of a collection of given statistical hypotheses. For example, they may wish to determine whether any one of several patient characteristics are associated with a health outcome of interest. Existing generic methods for testing a multivariate hypothesis -- such as multiplicity corrections applied to individual hypothesis tests -- can easily be applied across a variety of problems but can suffer from low power in some settings. Tailor-made procedures can attain higher power by building around problem-specific information but typically cannot be easily adapted to novel settings. In this work, we propose a general framework for testing a multivariate point null hypothesis in which the test statistic is adaptively selected to provide increased power. We present theoretical large-sample guarantees for our test under both fixed and local alternatives. In simulation studies, we show that tests created using our framework can perform as well as tailor-made methods when the latter are available, and we illustrate how our procedure can be used to create tests in two settings in which tailor-made methods are not currently available.

We study sensor-based human activity recognition in manual work processes like assembly tasks. In such processes, the system states often have a rich structure, involving object properties and relations. Thus, estimating the hidden system state from sensor observations by recursive Bayesian filtering can be very challenging, due to the combinatorial explosion in the number of system states. To alleviate this problem, we propose an efficient Bayesian filtering model for such processes. In our approach, system states are represented by multi-hypergraphs, and the system dynamics is modeled by graph rewriting rules. We show a preliminary concept that allows to represent distributions over multi-hypergraphs more compactly than by full enumeration, and present an inference algorithm that works directly on this compact representation. We demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm on a real dataset., Comment: Accepted for presentation at the 2nd GCLR workshop in conjunction with AAAI 2022

Estimation and evaluation of individualized treatment rules have been studied extensively, but real-world treatment resource constraints have received limited attention in existing methods. We investigate a setting in which treatment is intervened upon based on covariates to optimize the mean counterfactual outcome under treatment cost constraints when the treatment cost is random. In a particularly interesting special case, an instrumental variable corresponding to encouragement to treatment is intervened upon with constraints on the proportion receiving treatment. For such settings, we first develop a method to estimate optimal individualized treatment rules. We further construct an asymptotically efficient plug-in estimator of the corresponding average treatment effect relative to a given reference rule.

This paper develops a new approach to post-selection inference for screening high-dimensional predictors of survival outcomes. Post-selection inference for right-censored outcome data has been investigated in the literature, but much remains to be done to make the methods both reliable and computationally-scalable in high-dimensions. Machine learning tools are commonly used to provide {\it predictions} of survival outcomes, but the estimated effect of a selected predictor suffers from confirmation bias unless the selection is taken into account. The new approach involves construction of semi-parametrically efficient estimators of the linear association between the predictors and the survival outcome, which are used to build a test statistic for detecting the presence of an association between any of the predictors and the outcome. Further, a stabilization technique reminiscent of bagging allows a normal calibration for the resulting test statistic, which enables the construction of confidence intervals for the maximal association between predictors and the outcome and also greatly reduces computational cost. Theoretical results show that this testing procedure is valid even when the number of predictors grows superpolynomially with sample size, and our simulations support that this asymptotic guarantee is indicative the performance of the test at moderate sample sizes. The new approach is applied to the problem of identifying patterns in viral gene expression associated with the potency of an antiviral drug., Comment: 102 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables

Though platform trials have been touted for their flexibility and streamlined use of trial resources, their statistical efficiency is not well understood. We fill this gap by establishing their greater efficiency for comparing the relative efficacy of multiple interventions over using several separate, two-arm trials, where the relative efficacy of an arbitrary pair of interventions is evaluated by contrasting their relative risks as compared to control. In theoretical and numerical studies, we demonstrate that the inference of such a contrast using data from a platform trial enjoys identical or better precision than using data from separate trials, even when the former enrolls substantially fewer participants. This benefit is attributed to the sharing of controls among interventions under contemporaneous randomization, which is a key feature of platform trials. We further provide a novel procedure for establishing the non-inferiority of a given intervention relative to the most efficacious of the other interventions under evaluation, where this procedure is adaptive in the sense that it need not be \textit{a priori} known which of these other interventions is most efficacious. Our numerical studies show that this testing procedure can attain substantially better power when the data arise from a platform trial rather than multiple separate trials. Our results are illustrated using data from two monoclonal antibody trials for the prevention of HIV., Comment: 60 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables

We aim to make inferences about a smooth, finite-dimensional parameter by fusing data from multiple sources together. Previous works have studied the estimation of a variety of parameters in similar data fusion settings, including in the estimation of the average treatment effect and average reward under a policy, with the majority of them merging one historical data source with covariates, actions, and rewards and one data source of the same covariates. In this work, we consider the general case where one or more data sources align with each part of the distribution of the target population, for example, the conditional distribution of the reward given actions and covariates. We describe potential gains in efficiency that can arise from fusing these data sources together in a single analysis, which we characterize by a reduction in the semiparametric efficiency bound. We also provide a general means to construct estimators that achieve these bounds. In numerical experiments, we illustrate marked improvements in efficiency from using our proposed estimators rather than their natural alternatives. Finally, we illustrate the magnitude of efficiency gains that can be realized in vaccine immunogenicity studies by fusing data from two HIV vaccine trials.

We propose a new method for separating valid inequalities for the epigraph of a function of binary variables. The proposed inequalities are disjunctive cuts defined by disjunctive terms obtained by enumerating a subset $I$ of the binary variables. We show that by restricting the support of the cut to the same set of variables $I$, a cut can be obtained by solving a linear program with $2^{|I|}$ constraints. While this limits the size of the set $I$ used to define the multi-term disjunction, the procedure enables generation of multi-term disjunctive cuts using far more terms than existing approaches. We present two approaches for choosing the subset of variables. Experience on three MILP problems with block diagonal structure using $|I|$ up to size 10 indicates the sparse cuts can often close nearly as much gap as the multi-term disjunctive cuts without this restriction and in a fraction of the time. We also find that including these cuts within a cut-and-branch solution method for these MILP problems leads to significant reductions in solution time or ending optimality gap for instances that were not solved within the time limit. Finally, we describe how the proposed approach can be adapted to optimally "tilt" a given valid inequality by modifying the coefficients of a sparse subset of the variables.

We consider human activity recognition (HAR) from wearable sensor data in manual-work processes, like warehouse order-picking. Such structured domains can often be partitioned into distinct process steps, e.g., packaging or transporting. Each process step can have a different prior distribution over activity classes, e.g., standing or walking, and different system dynamics. Here, we show how such context information can be integrated systematically into a deep neural network-based HAR system. Specifically, we propose a hybrid architecture that combines a deep neural network-that estimates high-level movement descriptors, attributes, from the raw-sensor data-and a shallow classifier, which predicts activity classes from the estimated attributes and (optional) context information, like the currently executed process step. We empirically show that our proposed architecture increases HAR performance, compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we show that HAR performance can be further increased when information about process steps is incorporated, even when that information is only partially correct., Comment: 3rd International Workshop on Deep Learning for Human Activity Recognition

Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are expressive probabilistic models that provide exact, tractable inference. They achieve this efficiency by making use of local independence. On the other hand, mixtures of exchangeable variable models (MEVMs) are a class of tractable probabilistic models that make use of exchangeability of discrete random variables to render inference tractable. Exchangeability, which arises naturally in relational domains, has not been considered for efficient representation and inference in SPNs yet. The contribution of this paper is a novel probabilistic model which we call Exchangeability-Aware Sum-Product Networks (XSPNs). It contains both SPNs and MEVMs as special cases, and combines the ability of SPNs to efficiently learn deep probabilistic models with the ability of MEVMs to efficiently handle exchangeable random variables. We introduce a structure learning algorithm for XSPNs and empirically show that they can be more accurate than conventional SPNs when the data contains repeated, interchangeable parts., Comment: accepted at IJCAI 2022