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Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time, surface temperature and a blocking index. The model features flexibility to use annual maxima as well as seasonal maxima to be fitted in a generalized extreme value setting. To further increase the efficiency of data usage maxima from different accumulation durations are aggregated so that information for extremes on different time scales can be provided. Our model is trained to individual station data with temporal resolutions ranging from one minute to one day across Germany. The models are selected with a stepwise BIC model selection and verified with a cross-validated quantile skill index. The verification shows that the new model performs better than a reference model without large scale information. Also, the new model enables insights into the effect of large scale variables on extreme precipitation. Results suggest that the probability of extreme precipitation increases with time since 1950 in all seasons. High probabilities of extremes are positively correlated with blocking situations in summer and with temperature in winter. However, they are negatively correlated with blocking situations in winter and temperature in summer.

For modeling extreme rainfall, the widely used Brown-Resnick max-stable model extends the concept of the variogram to suit bloc maxima, allowing the explicit modeling of the extremal dependence shown by the spatial data. This extremal dependence stems from the geometrical characteristics of the observed rainfall, which is associated with different meteorological processes and is usually considered to be constant when designing the model for a study. However, depending on the region, this dependence can change throughout the year, as the prevailing meteorological conditions that drive the rainfall generation process change with the season. Therefore, this study analyzes the impact of the seasonal change in extremal dependence for the modeling of annual block maxima in the Berlin-Brandenburg region. For this study, two seasons were considered as proxies for different dominant meteorological conditions: summer for convective rainfall and winter for frontal/stratiform rainfall. Using maxima from both seasons, we compared the skill of a linear model with spatial covariates (that assumed spatial independence) with the skill of a Brown-Resnick max-stable model. This comparison showed a considerable difference between seasons, with the isotropic Brown-Resnick model showing considerable loss of skill for the winter maxima. We conclude that the assumptions commonly made when using the Brown-Resnick model are appropriate for modeling summer (i.e., convective) events, but further work should be done for modeling other types of precipitation regimes., Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to examine the performance of Ethernet in space vehicle configurations at the physical layer and develop guidance for system designers to ensure correct Ethernet operation in these systems. The objective of the assessment was to develop guidance and requirements for Ethernet cable and connectors for spaceflight environments and make recommendations for Ethernet systems used in flight-critical space applications. This report contains the results of the NESC assessment.

The current progress in the detection of terrestrial type exoplanets has opened a new avenue in the characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres and in the search for biosignatures of life with the upcoming ground-based and space missions. To specify the conditions favorable for the origin, development and sustainment of life as we know it in other worlds, we need to understand the nature of astrospheric, atmospheric and surface environments of exoplanets in habitable zones around G-K-M dwarfs including our young Sun. Global environment is formed by propagated disturbances from the planet-hosting stars in the form of stellar flares, coronal mass ejections, energetic particles, and winds collectively known as astrospheric space weather. Its characterization will help in understanding how an exoplanetary ecosystem interacts with its host star, as well as in the specification of the physical, chemical and biochemical conditions that can create favorable and/or detrimental conditions for planetary climate and habitability along with evolution of planetary internal dynamics over geological timescales. A key linkage of (astro) physical, chemical, and geological processes can only be understood in the framework of interdisciplinary studies with the incorporation of progress in heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary and Earth sciences. The assessment of the impacts of host stars on the climate and habitability of terrestrial (exo)planets will significantly expand the current definition of the habitable zone to the biogenic zone and provide new observational strategies for searching for signatures of life. The major goal of this paper is to describe and discuss the current status and recent progress in this interdisciplinary field and to provide a new roadmap for the future development of the emerging field of exoplanetary science and astrobiology., Comment: 206 pages, 24 figures, 1 table; Review paper. International Journal of Astrobiology (2019)

The field of exoplanetary science is making rapid progress both in statistical studies of exoplanet properties as well as in individual characterization. As space missions provide an emerging picture of formation and evolution of exoplanetary systems, the search for habitable worlds becomes one of the fundamental issues to address. To tackle such a complex challenge, we need to specify the conditions favorable for the origin, development and sustainment of life as we know it. This requires the understanding of global (astrospheric) and local (atmospheric, surface and internal) environments of exoplanets in the framework of the physical processes of the interaction between evolving planet-hosting stars along with exoplanetary evolution over geological timescales, and the resulting impact on climate and habitability of exoplanets. Feedbacks between astrophysical, physico-chemical atmospheric and geological processes can only be understood through interdisciplinary studies with the incorporation of progress in heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary, Earth sciences, astrobiology, and the origin of life communities. The assessment of the impacts of host stars on the climate and habitability of terrestrial (exo)planets and potential exomoons around them may significantly modify the extent and the location of the habitable zone and provide new directions for searching for signatures of life. Thus, characterization of stellar ionizing outputs becomes an important task for further understanding the extent of habitability in the universe. The goal of this white paper is to identify and describe promising key research goals to aid the theoretical characterization and observational detection of ionizing radiation from quiescent and flaring upper atmospheres of planet hosts as well as properties of stellar coronal mass ejections and stellar energetic particle events., Comment: White Paper submitted to the Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey (Astro2020), 8 pages, 1 figure

Tidal interactions between planets or stars and the bodies that orbit them dissipate energy in their interiors. The energy dissipated drives internal heating and a fraction of that energy will be released as seismic energy. Here we formalize a model to describe the tidally-driven seismic activity on planetary bodies based on tidal dissipation., Comment: 31 pages, 5 pages, submitted to Icarus

It is currently unknown how common life is on exoplanets, or how long planets can remain viable for life. To date, we have a superficial notion of habitability, a necessary first step, but so far lacking an understanding of the detailed interaction between stars and planets over geological timescales, dynamical evolution of planetary systems, and atmospheric evolution on planets in other systems. A planet mass, net insolation, and atmospheric composition alone are insufficient to determine the probability that life on a planet could arise or be detected. The latter set of planetary considerations, among others, underpin the concept of the habitable zone (HZ), defined as the circumstellar region where standing bodies of liquid water could be supported on the surface of a rocky planet. However, stars within the same spectral class are often treated in the same way in HZ studies, without any regard for variations in activity among individual stars. Such formulations ignore differences in how nonthermal emission and magnetic energy of transient events in different stars affect the ability of an exoplanet to retain its atmosphere.In the last few years there has been a growing appreciation that the atmospheric chemistry, and even retention of an atmosphere in many cases, depends critically on the high-energy radiation and particle environments around these stars. Indeed, recent studies have shown stellar activity and the extreme space weather, such as that created by the frequent flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the active stars and young Sun, may have profoundly affected the chemistry and climate and thus habitability of the early Earth and terrestrial type exoplanets. The goal of this white paper is to identify and describe promising key research goals to aid the field of the exoplanetary habitability for the next 20 years., Comment: 6 pages, the white paper submitted to the US National Academy of Sciences call on Exoplanet Science Strategy

The search of life in the Universe is a fundamental problem of astrobiology and a major priority for NASA. A key area of major progress since the NASA Astrobiology Strategy 2015 (NAS15) has been a shift from the exoplanet discovery phase to a phase of characterization and modeling of the physics and chemistry of exoplanetary atmospheres, and the development of observational strategies for the search for life in the Universe by combining expertise from four NASA science disciplines including heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary science and Earth science. The NASA Nexus for Exoplanetary System Science (NExSS) has provided an efficient environment for such interdisciplinary studies. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles produce disturbances in interplanetary space collectively referred to as space weather, which interacts with the Earth upper atmosphere and causes dramatic impact on space and ground-based technological systems. Exoplanets within close in habitable zones around M dwarfs and other active stars are exposed to extreme ionizing radiation fluxes, thus making exoplanetary space weather (ESW) effects a crucial factor of habitability. In this paper, we describe the recent developments and provide recommendations in this interdisciplinary effort with the focus on the impacts of ESW on habitability, and the prospects for future progress in searching for signs of life in the Universe as the outcome of the NExSS workshop held in Nov 29 - Dec 2, 2016, New Orleans, LA. This is one of five Life Beyond the Solar System white papers submitted by NExSS to the National Academy of Sciences in support of the Astrobiology Science Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe., Comment: 5 pages, the white paper was submitted to the National Academy of Sciences in support of the Astrobiology Science Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe

The overall scope of this NESC study was to identify (or develop) a tool, methodology, or process that can inspect a ceramic capacitor and consistently return repeatable grain size distribution results. It is important to note that the development of a machine learning technique was considered as an option for this study, but only if an existing automated tool was not available. This report explains why the Electron Backscatter Diffraction analysis method for grain structure and size distribution was deemed a suitable candidate for this work.

Spectral modeling of the large infrared excess in the Spitzer IRS spectra of HD 172555 suggests that there is more than 10^19 kg of sub-micron dust in the system. Using physical arguments and constraints from observations, we rule out the possibility of the infrared excess being created by a magma ocean planet or a circumplanetary disk or torus. We show that the infrared excess is consistent with a circumstellar debris disk or torus, located at approximately 6 AU, that was created by a planetary scale hypervelocity impact. We find that radiation pressure should remove submicron dust from the debris disk in less than one year. However, the system's mid-infrared photometric flux, dominated by submicron grains, has been stable within 4 percent over the last 27 years, from IRAS (1983) to WISE (2010). Our new spectral modeling work and calculations of the radiation pressure on fine dust in HD 172555 provide a self-consistent explanation for this apparent contradiction. We also explore the unconfirmed claim that 10^47 molecules of SiO vapor are needed to explain an emission feature at 8 um in the Spitzer IRS spectrum of HD 172555. We find that unless there are 10^48 atoms or 0.05 Earth masses of atomic Si and O vapor in the system, SiO vapor should be destroyed by photo-dissociation in less than 0.2 years. We argue that a second plausible explanation for the 8 um feature can be emission from solid SiO, which naturally occurs in submicron silicate "smokes" created by quickly condensing vaporized silicate., Comment: Accepted to the Astrophysical Journal

The search for extrasolar rocky planets has already found the first transiting rocky super-Earth, Corot 7b, with a surface temperature that allows for magma oceans. Here we ask if we could distinguish rocky planets with recent major volcanism by remote observation. We develop a model for volcanic eruptions on an Earth-like exoplanet based on the present day Earth, derive the observable features in emergent and transmission spectra for multiple scenarios of gas distribution and cloudcover. We calculate the observation time needed to detect explosive volcanism on exoplanets in primary as well as secondary eclipse and discuss the likelihood of observing volcanism on transiting Earth to super-Earth sized exoplanets. We find that sulfur dioxide from large explosive eruptions does present a spectral signal that is remotely detectable especially for secondary eclipse measurements around the closest stars using ground based telescopes, and report the frequency and magnitude of the expected signatures. Transit probability of planet in the habitable zone decreases with distance to the host star, making small, close by host stars the best targets, Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables, in press ApJ

We report on a measurement of phi-meson production in Au+Au collisions at a beam momentum of 11.7 A GeV/c by Experiment E917 at the AGS. The measurement covers the midrapidity region 1.2 < y < 1.6. Transverse-mass spectra and the rapidity distribution are presented as functions of centrality characterized by the number of participant projectile nucleons. The yield of phi's per participant projectile nucleon increases strongly in central collisions in a manner similar to that observed for kaons., Comment: 12 pages, 3 table, 14 eps figures which use \includegraphics, revtex 4, revised version submitted to Phys. Rev. C

We present results from Experiment E917 for antilambda and antiproton production in Au+Au collisions at 11.7 A GeV. We have measured invariant spectra and yields for both species in central and peripheral collisions. We find that the antilambda/antiproton ratio near mid-rapidity increases from 0.26+0.19-0.15 in peripheral collisions to 3.6+4.7-1.8 in central collisions, a value that is substantially larger than current theoretical estimates., Comment: 5 pages, 1 table, 3 eps figures which use \includegraphics, revtex 4

An excitation function of proton rapidity distributions for different centralities is reported from AGS Experiment E917 for Au+Au collisions at 6, 8, and 10.8 GeV/nucleon. The rapidity distributions from peripheral collisions have a valley at midrapidity which smoothly change to distributions that peak at midrapidity for central collisions. The mean rapidity loss increases with increasing beam energy, whereas the fraction of protons consistent with isotropic emission from a thermal source at midrapidity decreases with increasing beam energy., Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, 1 table replaced version has figures rotated

Phobos, the innermost satellite of Mars, displays an extensive system of grooves that are mostly symmetric about its sub-Mars point. Phobos is steadily spiraling inward due to the tides it raises on Mars lagging behind Phobos' orbital position and will suffer tidal disruption before colliding with Mars in a few tens of millions of years. We calculate the surface stress field of the deorbiting satellite and show that the first signs of tidal disruption are already present on its surface. Most of Phobos' prominent grooves have an excellent correlation with computed stress orientations. The model requires a weak interior that has very low rigidity on the tidal evolution time scale, overlain by an approximately 10-100 m exterior shell that has elastic properties similar to lunar regolith as described by Horvath et al. (1980).

The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

The Deep Impact spacecraft was launched on a Boeing Delta II rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) on January 12, 2005. Prior to the launch, the Director of the Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OS&MA) requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) lead a team to render an independent opinion on the rationale for flight and the risk code assignments for the hazard of cracked Thick Film Assemblies (TFAs) in the E-packages of the Delta II launch vehicle for the Deep Impact Mission. The results of the evaluation are contained in this report.

The NESC eras requested by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to conduct an independent review of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Thermal/Vacuum (T/V) Anomaly Assessment. Because the anomaly resulted in the surface contamination of the MRO, selected members of the Materials Super Problem Resolution Team (SPRT) and the NASA technical community having technical expertise relative to contamination issues were chosen for the independent review. The consultation consisted of a review of the MRO Project's reported response to the assessment findings, a detailed review of JPL technical assessment final report, and detailed discussions with the JPL assessment team relative to their findings.

In June 2005, the NESC received a multi-faceted request to determine the long term reliability of fiber optic termini on the ISS that exhibited flaws not manufactured to best workmanship practices. There was a lack of data related to fiber optic workmanship as it affects the long term reliability of optical fiber assemblies in a harsh environment. A fiber optic defect analysis was requested which would find and/or create various types of chips, spalls, scratches, etc., that were identified by the ISS personnel. Once the defects and causes were identified the next step would be to perform long term reliability testing of similar assemblies with similar defects. The goal of the defect analysis would be for the defects to be observed and documented for deterioration of fiber optic performance. Though this report mostly discusses what has been determined as evidence of poor manufacturing processes, it also concludes the majority of the damage could have been avoided with a rigorous process in place.

The art of flight quality solid-state laser development is still relatively young, and much is still unknown regarding the best procedures, components, and packaging required for achieving the maximum possible lifetime and reliability when deployed in the harsh space environment. One of the most important issues is the limited and unstable supply of quality, high power diode arrays with significant technological heritage and market lifetime. Since Spectra Diode Labs Inc. ended their involvement in the pulsed array business in the late 1990's, there has been a flurry of activity from other manufacturers, but little effort focused on flight quality production. This forces NASA, inevitably, to examine the use of commercial parts to enable space flight laser designs. System-level issues such as power cycling, operational derating, duty cycle, and contamination risks to other laser components are some of the more significant unknown, if unquantifiable, parameters that directly effect transmitter reliability. Designs and processes can be formulated for the system and the components (including thorough modeling) to mitigate risk based on the known failures modes as well as lessons learned that GSFC has collected over the past ten years of space flight operation of lasers. In addition, knowledge of the potential failure modes related to the system and the components themselves can allow the qualification testing to be done in an efficient yet, effective manner. Careful test plan development coupled with physics of failure knowledge will enable cost effect qualification of commercial technology. Presented here will be lessons learned from space flight experience, brief synopsis of known potential failure modes, mitigation techniques, and options for testing from the system level to the component level.

A process for manufacturing carbon nanotubes, including a step of inducing electrical current through a carbon anode and a carbon cathode under conditions effective to produce the carbon nanotubes, wherein the carbon cathode is larger than the carbon anode. Preferably, a welder is used to induce the electrical current via an arc welding process. Preferably, an exhaust hood is placed on the anode, and the process does not require a closed or pressurized chamber. The process provides high-quality, single-walled carbon nanotubes, while eliminating the need for a metal catalyst.

This paper presents an analysis of the sensitivity of single event upset (SEU) rate predictions to changes in the direct ionization-inducing environment. An examination based on the nature of the SEU rate equation is presented for the case in which the perturbation is constant across varying particle linear energy transfer (LET). It is shown that the relative variation in SEU rate is equal to the relative perturbation in flux. Results are also presented for the case in which the environment perturbations exist in small LET bins. Through this analysis it is shown that the relative variation in expected SEU rate is equal to that in flux only for the LET regime in which the product of the cross section and differential flux is maximum.

The laboratory established at NASA-Goddard to measure and model the light-scattering properties of soil samples and individual plant leaves employs two goniometers: one for the measurement of directional reflectance and transmittance from vertically-mounted leaf samples, and the other for measurement of directional reflectance from such horizontal, semiinfinite particulate surfaces as soil samples. Sample observations of various soil minerals and plant leaves are presented; these goniometric data are compared to the results of a reflectance model from particulate surfaces and those of a ray-tracing model of leaf reflectance and transmittance.